Chapter 3. Probability

82 Chapter 3: Probability⎛ number of U.S.deaths, 65 + ⎞Crude mortality rate for U.S., 65 and older = ⎜⎟ k =⎝ U.S.population ⎠⎛⎜⎝1,876,334285,318,000⎞⎟∗1000= 0.00658∗1000= 6.58⎠⎛ 2,807,598 ⎞⎜ ⎟ ∗100%= 0.1974 ∗100%= 19.74⎝14,220,632⎠⎛ 35,355,000 ⎞⎜⎟ ∗100%= 0.1239 ∗100%= 12.39⎝ 285,318,000 ⎠c. %(65 and older in Florida)= %%(65 and older in U.S.)= %Since Florida has a higher percentage of those in the population of 65 years or older than the U.S., thedifference in crude mortality rate (11.8 for Florida and 8.5 for the U.S.) would be expected.15. Number of Deaths It should not be surprising that the number of deaths in the U.S. has been steadilyincreasing each year since the population would be steadily increasing and getting older. Also, better methodsmay be available for reporting deaths. This does not mean that anything is happening to the health of thenation.16. Comparing Rates Crude mortality rate in U.S. is 8.5 per 1000 and the crude mortality rate in China is 6.7. Themajor problem in comparing these rates is that the age distributions of the two nations could be different andthat, among other reasons, could be a major factor in the difference.17. Adjusted Mortality Rate0-24 25-64 65 and older TotalFlorida deaths 4,085 35,458 128,119 167,662Florida population 4,976,942 6,436,092 2,807,598 14,220,632U.S. deaths 75,011 464,655 1,876,334 2,416,000U.S. population 100,464,000 149,499,000 35,355,000 285,318,000Proportion in U.S. population 0.3521 0.5240 0.1239 1.0000Adjusted Florida population=Florida total population ∗ U.S.5,007,085 7,451,611 1,761,936 14,220,632ProportionWeighting factor= Adjusted Floridapopulation/Original Florida population1.0061 1.1578 0.6276Adjusted Florida deaths= Weighingfactor ∗ Florida deaths4,110 41,053 80,407 125,570Age Adjusted Mortality Rate=(Adjusted Florida deaths/Floridapopulation) ∗ 10008.83The age adjusted crude mortality rate for Florida is 8.8, down from the non-age adjusted rate of 11.8, is closer tothe U.S. crude mortality rate of 8.5.