Chapter 3. Probability

Chapter 3: Probability 8112. Finding probability In US, 700,142 deaths due to heart disease out of population of 285,138,000a. Crude mortality for heart disease⎛ number who died of heart disease ⎞Crude mortality for heart disease = ⎜⎝ number in population⎛⎜⎝700,142285,138,000⎞⎟ ∗1000= 2.5 (rounded)⎠b. P(died of heart disease)= 0.0025c. P(two randomly selected who didn’t die)= P(first didn’t die) • P(second didn’t die)=(1 – 0.0025) • (1 – 0.0025)= 0.9975 • 0.9975= 0.99513. Cause-of-Death Ratio.a. cause-of-death ratio⎛ number of deaths due to heart disease ⎞ ⎛cause - of - death ratio = ⎜⎟ k = ⎜⎝ total number of deaths ⎠ ⎝0.2898∗100= 28.98b. P(three deaths are not due to heart disease)= (1 – 0.2898) 3 = 0.7102 3 = 0.35814. Crude mortality rate⎟ ∗⎠1000 =700,142 ⎞⎟ ∗100=2,416,000 ⎠0-24 25-64 65 and older TotalFlorida deaths 4,085 35,458 128,119 167,662Florida population 4,976,942 6,436,092 2,807,598 14,220,632U.S. deaths 75,011 464,655 1,876,334 2,416,000U.S. population 100,464,000 149,499,000 35,355,000 285,318,000a. Crude mortality rates for Florida and U.S.⎛ number of Florida deaths ⎞Crude mortality rate for Florida = ⎜⎟ k =⎝ Florida population ⎠⎛ 167,662 ⎞⎜ ⎟ ∗1000= 0.01179 ∗1000= 11.8⎝14,220,632⎠⎛ number of U.S. deaths ⎞Crude mortality rate for U.S. = ⎜⎟ k⎝ U.S. population ⎠⎛⎜⎝2,416,000285,318,000⎞⎟ ∗⎠1000 = 0.00847 ∗1000= 8.5=b. Crude mortality rates for those 65 and older, Florida and U.S.⎛ number of Florida deaths, 65 + ⎞Crude mortality rate for Florida, 65 and older = ⎜⎟ k =⎝ Florida population ⎠⎛ 128,119 ⎞⎜ ⎟∗1000= 0.00901∗1000= 9.01⎝14,220,632⎠