Chapter 3. Probability

80 Chapter 3: Probability6. With k= 100,000, motor vehicle death incidence rate⎛ number of reported cases motor vehicle deaths ⎞Incidence rate = ⎜⎟ k =⎝ total number in population ⎠⎛⎜⎝43,900 ⎞⎟ ∗100,000= 0.000154 ∗1000000= 15.4 (rounded)285,318,000 ⎠7. HIV incidence rate⎛ number of reported cases of HIV ⎞HIV incidence rate = ⎜⎟ k =⎝ total number in population ⎠⎛⎜⎝900,000285,318,000⎞⎟ ∗1000= 0.00315 ∗1000= 3.2 (rounded)⎠8. HIV mortality rate for HIV-infected persons⎛ number of deaths due to HIV ⎞ ⎛HIV mortality rate = ⎜= ⎜total number of HIVin population⎟ k⎝⎠ ⎝17,402900,000⎞⎟ ∗1000=⎠0.0193 ∗1000= 19.3 (rounded)9. Finding ProbabilityCrude mortality rate= 8.5 per 1000P(died during year)= 8.5/1000= 0.0085The advantage of the crude mortality rate is that it is in the form of a specific number out of 1000 rather than ina fractional value with several decimal places. Thus, it is a little easier to comprehend what this means.10. Finding Probability Crude death rate for France is 9.1 with k= 1000a. P(died within a year)= 9.1/1000= 0.0091b. P(two randomly selected who died in year)= P(first died) • P(second died)=0.0091 • 0.0091= 0.0000828c. P(two randomly selected who didn’t die)= P(first didn’t die) • P(second didn’t die)=(1 – 0.0091) • (1 – 0.0091)= 0.9909 • 0.9909= 0.981882811. Finding Probability Crude death rate in Canada= 7.5a. P(died within a year)= 7.5/1000= 0.0075b. P(two randomly selected who died in year)= P(first died) • P(second died)=0.0075 • 0.0075= 0.0000563c. P(two randomly selected who didn’t die)= P(first didn’t die) • P(second didn’t die)=(1 – 0.0075) • (1 – 0.0075)= 0.9925 • 0.9925= 0.9850563