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Report - PEER - University of California, Berkeley

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MODELING CONSIDERATIONS IN PROBABILISTIC PERFORMANCEBASED SEISMIC EVALUATION OF HIGHWAY BRIDGESSashi K. KUNNATH 1 and Leah I. LARSON 2ABSTRACTLimitations associated with deterministic methods to quantify demands and develop rationalacceptance criteria have led to the emergence <strong>of</strong> probabilistic procedures in performance-basedseismic engineering (PBSE). The Pacific Earthquake Engineering Research (<strong>PEER</strong>)performance-based methodology is one such approach. In this paper, the impact <strong>of</strong> certainmodeling decisions made at different stages <strong>of</strong> the evaluation process is examined. Modeling,in the context <strong>of</strong> this paper, covers hazard modeling, structural modeling, damage modeling andloss modeling. The specific application considered in this study is a section <strong>of</strong> an existingviaduct in <strong>California</strong>: the I-880 interstate highway. Several simulation models <strong>of</strong> the viaduct aredeveloped, a series <strong>of</strong> nonlinear time history analyses are carried out to predict demands,measures <strong>of</strong> damage are evaluated and the closure probability <strong>of</strong> the viaduct is estimated for thespecified hazard at the site. Results indicate that the assessment is particularly sensitive to thedispersion in the demand estimation, which in turn is influenced by the ground motion scalingprocedure.Keywords: Bridge; Fragility functions; Nonlinear time-history analysis; Performancebasedseismic engineering; Seismic evaluation; Soil-foundation interaction.1. INTRODUCTIONEarly attempts in probabilistic seismic evaluation can be traced to the developmentand application <strong>of</strong> fragility curves. A formal implementation utilizing a probabilisticapproach in seismic evaluation and design materialized with FEMA-350 (2000). The<strong>PEER</strong> performance-based framework may be regarded as an extension and anenhancement <strong>of</strong> the procedure developed for FEMA-350 (Cornell et al., 2002). Aconceptual description <strong>of</strong> the methodology, based on the total probability theorem, isexpressed as follows:ν ( DV ) = ∫∫G(DV | DM ) dG( DM | EDP ) dG( EDP | IM ) dλ(IM ) (1)1 Pr<strong>of</strong>essor, Civil & Environmental Engineering, <strong>University</strong> <strong>of</strong> <strong>California</strong>, Davis, CA 956162 Graduate Student, Civil & Environmental Engineering, <strong>University</strong> <strong>of</strong> <strong>California</strong>, Davis, CA 9561665

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