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Report - PEER - University of California, Berkeley

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This study has shown that a modification to HAZUS, using Monte Carlo simulations,redresses this deficiency in HAZUS in a way which (initially at least) appearsplausible by reference to observed data from Kocaeli. Further work is needed todevelop a viable and reliable tool for predicting losses for the insurance industry, butthe approach described here appears a promising one to pursue.REFERENCESATC. (1985). ATC 13 Earthquake Damage Evaluation Data for <strong>California</strong>,Advanced Technology Council.AIJ. (2001). <strong>Report</strong> on Damage Investigation <strong>of</strong> the 1999 Kocaeli Earthquake inTurkey. Architectural Institute <strong>of</strong> Japan.Bommer, J. et al. (2002). Development <strong>of</strong> a Turkish Loss Model for TurkishCatastrophe Insurance, Journal <strong>of</strong> Seismology, vol. 6, no. 2, pp. 431-446.Bird, J. F., J. J. Bommer, J. D. Bray, R. B. Sancio, R. J. S. Spence (2004). ComparingLoss Estimation with Observed Damage in a Zone <strong>of</strong> Ground Failure: A study <strong>of</strong>the 1999 Kocaeli Earthquake in Turkey. submitted to Bull. Earthquake Eng.March.Bray, J. D., and J. P. Stewart. (2000). Damage patterns and foundation performance inAdapazari, in Kocaeli, Turkey Earthquake <strong>of</strong> August 17, 1999 Reconnaissance<strong>Report</strong>, Earthquake Spectra, 16 (Suppl. A), 163-189.Crowley H., R. Pinho, and J. Bommer. (2004). A Probabilistic Displacement-BasedVulnerability Assessment Procedure for Earthquake Loss Estimation. Bulletin <strong>of</strong>Earthquake Engineering 2(2): in press.EEFIT. (2003). The Kocaeli, Turkey earthquake <strong>of</strong> 17 August 1999. A field report byEEFIT. D’Ayala, D. and Free, M. (eds.), Earthquake Engineering FieldInvestigation Team, Institution <strong>of</strong> Structural Engineers, London.FEMA. (1999). HAZUS 99 technical and user manuals. Federal EmergencyManagement Agency, Washington, D.C.FEMA. (2000) FEMA 356: Prestandard and commentary for the seismicrehabilitation <strong>of</strong> buildings. Federal Emergency Management Agency,Washington.Johnson L. A., A. Coburn, and R. Mohsen. (2000) Damage survey approach toestimating insurance losses. Turkey Earthquake <strong>of</strong> August 17, 1999Reconnaissance <strong>Report</strong>, Earthquake Spectra, 16 (Suppl. A), 163-189.Kircher C., A. Nasser, O. Kustu, and W. Holmes. (1997). Development <strong>of</strong> buildingdamage functions for loss estimation. Earthquake Spectra 13(4) 663-682.Spence, R. J. et al. (2003). Comparing Loss Estimation with Observed damage: Astudy <strong>of</strong> the 1999 Kocaeli Earthquake in Turkey. Bulletin <strong>of</strong> EarthquakeEngineering, 1 (1) 83-113.408

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