Fleet Electrification Roadmap

20 primer: electrification of the transportation sectorspecial sectionspecial sectionfleet electrification roadmap 21FIGURE P1Electrification Industry Recipients of ARRA AwardsFIGURE P2Currently Announced North American EV and PHEV Production CapacityCell, Battery, and MaterialsManufacturing Facilities1 $299 MillionJohnson Controls, Inc2 $249 MillionA123 Systems, Inc.3 $161 MillionKD ABG MI, LLC (Dow Kokam)4 $151 MillionCompact Power, Inc. (onbehalf of LG Chem, Ltd.)5 $118 MillionEnerDel, Inc.6 $106 MillionGeneral Motors Corporation7 $96 MillionSaft America, Inc.8 $34 MillionExide Technologies with AxionPower International9 $33 MillionEast Penn Manufacturing Co.Advanced Battery SupplierManufacturing Facilities10 $49 MillionCelgard, LLC, a subsidiary ofPolypore$50-$3001815153$5-$501211 $35 MillionToda America, Inc.12 $28 MillionChemetall Foote Corp.13 $27 MillionHoneywell International Inc.14 $25 MillionBASF Catalysts, LLC15 $21 MillionEnerG2, Inc.16 $21 MillionNovolyte Technologies, Inc.17 $13 MillionFutureFuel Chemical Company18 $11 MillionPyrotek, Inc.19 $5 MillionH&T Waterbury DBA BouffardMetal GoodsAdvanced Lithium-IonBattery RecyclingFacilities20 $10 MillionTOXCO Incorporated$1-$51116Electric Drive ComponentManufacturing Facilities1 $105 MillionGeneral Motors Corporation2 $89 MillionDelphi AutomotiveSystems, LLC3 $63 MillionAllison Transmission, Inc.4 $63 MillionFord Motor Company5 $60 MillionRemy, Inc.6 $45 MillionUQM Technologies, Inc.7 $40 MillionMagna E-Car Systemsof America, Inc.Electric DriveSubcomponentManufacturing Facilities8 $15 MillionKEMET Corporation9 $9 MillionSBE, Inc.10 $8 MillionPowerex, Inc.1251716158 710Advanced VehicleElectrification1 $100 MillionElectric TransportationEngineering Corp. (ETEC)2 $70 MillionChrysler LLC3 $45 MillionSouth Coast Air QualityManagement District(SCAQMD)4 $39 MillionNavistar, Inc. (Truck)Transportation SectorElectrification5 $22 MillionCascade Sierra SolutionsAdvanced VehicleElectrification +Transportation SectorElectrification6 $31 MillionGeneral Motors7 $30 MillionFord Motor Company8 $10 MillionSmith Electric Vehicles13744631611542232713442 68117142088101813710910111712Advanced ElectricDrive Vehicle EducationProgram9 $7 MillionWest Virginia University(NAFTC)10 $6 MillionPurdue University11 $5 MillionColorado State University12 $5 MillionMissouri University ofScience and Technology13 $5 MillionWayne State University14 $4 MillionNational Fire ProtectionAssociation15 $3 MillionMichigan TechnologicalUniversity16 $3 MillionUniversity of Michigan17 $0.72 MillionJ. Sargeant ReynoldsCommunity College18 $0.5 MillionCity College of San Francisco91991914400 Thousand3503002502001501005002010Source: PRTM Estimates2011Fisker Automotive will bring currently announced NorthAmerican GEV capacity to 150,000 units by 2012 andnearly 350,000 units by 2015. 9This investment in advanced battery and electricdrivevehicle technology by both the public and privatesectors represents a commitment to dealing with a crosssectionof key challenges confronting the United Statestoday. Electric drive technologies—from HEV to PHEVand EV—are the most technologically mature and costeffectivemeans for confronting many of our nation'smost substantial economic, national security, and environmentalissues. Moreover, infant industry support forthe domestic battery industry is a first step—albeit a modestone—toward supporting a renewed manufacturingbase in the United States. Large-format batteries makeup one of the more promising components in the emergingindustries that will employ American workers in thecoming years.To fully capitalize on this investment, however,electric drive vehicles must ultimately succeed in themarketplace. The supply-side of the grid-enabled vehicleindustry has developed rapidly over the past severalyears, and the United States has begun to establish aglobal leadership position, particularly in the design andmanufacture of large-format lithium-ion batteries. Froma national perspective, however, the real challenge will beto accelerate the pace at which new technology can alterthe energy profile of the U.S. transportation sector.Technological enthusiasts and other early adopterswill likely provide strong demand for the first several hundredthousand grid-enabled vehicles. But moving beyond2012201320142015Fiat 500EV*Fisker NinaFisker KarmaTesla Model SFord Focus PHEVFord Focus EVFord Transit ConnectNissan LeafChevy Voltthis market will be challenging. Today, more than 10 yearsafter their introduction to U.S. markets, there are just 1.6million gasoline electric hybrid cars and light-duty truckson the road in the United States. Hybrids represent lessthan 1 percent of the light-duty vehicle parc.In some ways, the challenges facing consumer acceptanceof grid-enabled vehicles will be greater than thosethat faced hybrids—though their potential benefits to thenation are also substantially greater than those of traditionalhybrids. In addition to vehicle range and associatedinfrastructure issues, perhaps the most importantchallenge facing widespread adoption of grid-enabledvehicles will be cost, a factor largely determined by thebattery. Most industry participants and analysts arguethat battery manufacturing costs will fall as the industryreaches higher production volumes than currently exist,but the timeframes for such reductions are somewhatuncertain and depend heavily on early market development.Therefore, particularly in the early stages of industrygrowth, it will be important to expand the demandsideof the industry by targeting a diverse customer base.(USD in Millions)Source: DOE; EC Analysis9 PRTM Analysis.