Islamic Republic of Afghanistan - Enhanced Integrated Framework ...

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External sectorExports are unlikely to increase substantiallyfrom the current very low base. Afghanistan’sexports are currently dominated by low valueaddedagricultural exports and carpets. Scalingup the export base would require significantFDI (Foreign Direct Investment) inflows. Underthe current situation, FDI is concentrated in thetelecommunications sector and the financialsector, which are not export-oriented industries.Large scale exploitation of copper, naturalgas, petroleum and precious minerals will helpin the medium and long term, although investmentsin this sector are relatively lumpy.The Current Account Balance, excluding the reexportof goods, is likely to decline over theprojected phase. This is largely due to an anticipateddecline in the imports-to-GDP ratio,particularly for manufacturing consumedgoods. In the outer years, local products andservices are expected to become a more significantfactor in Afghanistan’s economy.FINANCING THE ANDSThe Government has determined sectoralbudget ceilings that reflect priorities establishedin the ANDS (see Table 4.9). This reflectsthe Ministry of Finance’s adoption of asystem of program-based budgeting that is designedto achieve the country’s developmentneeds. It is based on levels of domestic anddonor financing in previous years and projectionsfor future revenues.This process is an integral part of the Government’sMedium-Term Fiscal Framework(MTFF) and the preparation of the budget.From 1387 (2008/09) onward the MTFF and thebudget will be based on the prioritization establishedin the ANDS and the utilization ofresources for the implementation of ANDSthrough the budget.These sectoral expenditure ceilings reflect thefact that security will remain the highest priority.Over the lifetime of the ANDS, securityspending is expected to total $14.2 billion. Thefunding for this sector is expected to come primarilythrough international assistance. TheGovernment estimates that in future years, theneed for security assistance will decrease as thethreat declines. However, given the uncertainnature of the instability facing Afghanistan, theGovernment envisions the possibility of potentiallysignificant revisions to the financing envelopefor the security sector.Table 4.9. Overall Financing Envelope for the ANDS 1387-1391 (2008-2013)13872008/09US$m13882009/10US$m13892010/11US$m13902011/12US$m13912012/13US$mTotalUS$mCore + External Budget FundingDomestic Revenue 887 1,104 1,351 1,611 1,911 6,864Total Assistance from Donors* 6,513 4,960 4,814 4,398 3,908 24,593Total Funding* 7,400 6,064 6,165 6,009 5,819 31,457Budgeted Core + External ExpenditureSecurity 3219 2585 2679 2790 2906 14179Infrastructure 1781 3093 3681 4180 4451 17185Agriculture and Rural Development 829 921 916 909 912 4486Education and Culture 742 893 980 1077 1181 4872Good Governance and Rule of Law 374 558 640 685 728 2985Health & Nutrition 325 465 530 563 595 2478Economic Governance & PSD 237 215 230 244 260 1186Social Protection 192 359 394 421 449 1815Others (Sub Codes) 205 198 185 170 157 915Total Expenditure 7,903 9,286 10,236 11,038 11,637 50,100 36* Based on discussions with donors and the 1386 (2007) financial review36 The level of expenditure in Table 4.9 is based on an assumption regarding the amount of financing which will be made available at theforthcoming ANDS donor conference in Paris. The macroeconomic framework which currently underpins the ANDS does not assume asimilar scaling-up of donor assistance and is therefore not entirely consistent with Table 4.8. Following the donor conference, the macroeconomicframework and the ANDS expenditure ceilings will be updated to reflect the actual level of donor assistance.50Afghanistan National Development Strategy (ANDS)
In the short term, the Government will focus itspublic expenditure programs on investments ininfrastructure, agriculture and rural developmentin recognition of the high importance ofthese sectors for the development of the privatesector and for employment growth. Over thelifetime of the ANDS, the Government will focusprogressively more resources on education,governance, health, and social protection. TheGovernment commits to allocating sufficientresources to the key priorities of strengtheningeconomic governance and improving the enablingenvironment for private sector development.CONCLUSIONFor Afghanistan to become a peaceful andprosperous country able to provide its peoplewith an acceptable standard of living, it has tobuild a strong economic foundation that willsupport long term and broad-based economicgrowth with the private sector as its engine.With sound macroeconomic policies undertakenduring the last five years, per capita incomenearly doubled. For the poverty reductiongoals of the ANDS to be achieved, comparablelevels of economic growth will be neededin comings years. This will require a conduciveenvironment for social and economic development,which in turn depends on the continuedmaintenance of sound and stable macroeconomicpolicies to enable the private sector toestablish itself as a vigorous engine of growthand employment creation.A key strategic objective of the ANDS is to establisha secure economic environment inwhich it will be possible to attract sufficientlevels of private sector investments that willlead to the increased employment of human,financial and natural resources in more productiveways. A critical element in achieving thisobjective will be to substantially increase investmentin capacity development and creatinga skilled workforce in order to expand employmentopportunities and increase incomes.Average economic growth is projected at an 8.1percent rate for 1387-1391. A key assumptionunderlying this ambitious goal is an increasingshare of total investment will come from theprivate sector. To reach these goals, the Governmentwill continue to maintain strong macroeconomicmanagement characterized by fiscalsustainability, prudent monetary policies,and the avoidance of short-term ad hoc measures.The ability to implement the projects and programsincluded in the ANDS depends upon theresources that will be available. In this regard,a major contribution of the ANDS has been thedetermination of budget ceilings that reflect theGovernment’s sectoral priorities. These arebeing built into the MTFF and the Ministry ofFinance’s program-based budgeting systemfocused on achieving the country’s developmentneeds. Security will remain the Government’shighest priority, while the public expenditureprograms for investments in energy,water and irrigation, transportation infrastructure,agriculture, agro-based industry, and ruraldevelopment will remain high priorities,acknowledging the high importance of thesesectors for the development of the private sectorand for long term and sustainable employmentgrowth. In the coming years the Governmentwill also devote progressively moreresources on education, governance, health,and social protection.Macroeconomic Framework 51
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In the name of Allah, the most Merc
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Executive SummaryI. INTRODUCTIONAfg
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Executive Summarydeveloping capacit
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2. The Afghan National Police (ANP)
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Afghanistan National Development St
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Afghanistan National Development St
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Executive SummaryWater Resources Ma
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Executive Summarystrengthen the ref
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Executive Summaryfor Capacity Devel
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Executive SummaryOver the past five
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Executive SummaryA key priority of
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Executive SummarySustaining the nas
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Islamic Republic of AfghanistanAfgh
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Map of AfghanistaniiiAfghanistan Na
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Map of Afghanistan ................
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Current situation: assessment of ai
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ACACBARADBADCAfCERTAFMISAGOAIHRCAIS
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Glossary of Afghan TermsAmu DaryaBa
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percent of the seats in the Nationa
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capacity limitations throughout the
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Page 61: PART IPROCESS, GOALSAND POLICYDIREC
Page 64 and 65: of the country’s 34 provinces are
Page 66 and 67: pertise, ability to manage risk and
Page 68 and 69: A Transport Sector Inter-Ministeria
Page 70 and 71: sion of service coverage and monito
Page 72 and 73: The regional cooperation initiative
Page 75 and 76: CHAPTER 2THE PARTICIPATORY PROCESS
Page 77 and 78: Figure 2.2. ANDS timeline 1385 - 13
Page 79 and 80: tation of projects. The PDPs develo
Page 81 and 82: Figure 2.3. Proportional representa
Page 83: • In the North East and Central H
Page 86 and 87: season being covered. To overcome t
Page 88 and 89: Consumption DisparityConsumption in
Page 90 and 91: correlated with higher involvement
Page 92 and 93: • Improving donor coordination an
Page 94 and 95: sickness or loss of a working famil
Page 97 and 98: CHAPTER 4MACROECONOMIC FRAMEWORKHig
Page 99 and 100: age points - from 42 percent of the
Page 101 and 102: Figure 4.4. Size of foreign assista
Page 103 and 104: ooooIncrease interdiction efforts a
Page 105 and 106: Consistent with the growth strategy
Page 107: policy, it will remain vigilant aga
Page 112 and 113: groups and neutralizing armed eleme
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Page 116 and 117: Significant steps have been taken s
Page 118 and 119: Table 5.1. Integration of the Cross
Page 120 and 121: Current Situation in the SectorAfgh
Page 122 and 123: Justice system between government a
Page 124 and 125: Table 6.2. Key Objectives of the Na
Page 126 and 127: Current Situation in the SectorAchi
Page 128 and 129: Table 6.1. Cross cutting issues in
Page 131 and 132: CHAPTER 7ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL DEVELO
Page 133 and 134: commitments to increase the goods a
Page 135 and 136: investment opportunities cannot be
Page 137 and 138: Despite progress and efforts to dat
Page 139 and 140: tor regulator, which will adopt a t
Page 141 and 142: percent of households in Kabul and
Page 143 and 144: icy priorities and decisions pertai
Page 145 and 146: at the same time rehabilitating and
Page 147 and 148: Further, the unstable security situ
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Page 151 and 152: • Increased Agricultural Producti
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Page 155 and 156: separate policies - one for basic t
Page 157 and 158: tions designed to promote Governmen
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• Urban Development: By the end o
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financing or co-production with use
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• Strengthened municipal capacity
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This Sector Strategy incorporates f
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high baseline level of 165 infant d
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temporary or permanent disabilities
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• the proposals that are consider
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In Higher Education, universities h
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the primary level. In rural areas,
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carry out construction of buildings
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prosperous and productive future in
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covery, and peaceful development of
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• By end-2012/13 the Government w
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to re-forest Afghanistan (i.e., “
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policy making. However, lack of the
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countries through policy negotiatio
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Provide housing, facilities and soc
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Table 13.0.1. Cross Cutting Issues
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SectorAnti-CorruptionGendering fina
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SectorAnti-CorruptionGenderCounter-
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SectorSocialProtectionAnti‐Corrup
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CHAPTER 8CROSS-CUTTING ISSUESThe AN
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COUNTER NARCOTICSBackground and con
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inforcing the integrity of public a
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activities on gender. The Governmen
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Resources and Environment. The orga
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PART IIIAID EFFECTIVENESSANDCOORDIN
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children have enrolled in primary a
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crease donor support for preventive
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Increasing the volume and concessio
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tation of the PRGF. Moreover, the s
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CHAPTER 10IMPLEMENTATION FRAMEWORKT
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lation and execution capacities to
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By committing themselves to funding
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ROLE OF THE MTFFThe three year Medi
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Consultative Groups (CGs) will cont
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CHAPTER 11MONITORING FRAMEWORKThe A
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(for ISAF), Afghanistan Information
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Figure 11.2. ANDS Poverty Monitorin
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Table 13.1. Monitoring and Evaluati
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ANDS Monitoring and Evaluation Indi
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CHAPTER 12CONCLUSIONWhile significa
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larger and more efficient private s
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APPENDICES
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PILLAR : SECURITYSECTOR : SECURITYE
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PILLAR : GOOD GOVERNANCESECTOR : GO
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PILLAR : GOOD GOVERNANCESECTOR : GO
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PILLAR : GOOD GOVERNANCESECTOR : JU
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PILLAR : ECONOMIC GOVERNANCE AND PR
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PILLAR : INFRASTRUCTURESECTOR : ENE
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PILLAR : INFRASTRUCTURESECTOR : ENE
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PILLAR : INFRASTRUCTURESECTOR : TRA
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PILLAR : INFRASTRUCTURESECTOR : URB
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PILLAR : INFRASTRUCTURESECTOR : MIN
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PILLAR : INFRASTRUCTURESECTOR : WAT
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PILLAR : INFRASTRUCTURESECTOR : INF
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PILLAR : EDUCATION AND CULTURESECTO
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PILLAR : AGRICULTURE AND RURAL DEVE
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PILLAR: SOCIAL PROTECTION & REFUGEE
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APPENDIX IIMonitoring MatrixPILLAR:
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PILLAR: GOVERNANCE, RULE OF LAW AND
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PILLAR: GOVERNANCE, RULE OF LAW AND
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PILLAR: INFRASTRUCTURESECTOR: TRANS
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PILLAR: INFRASTRUCTURESECTOR: TRANS
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vincial capitalsImproved ICT covera
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PILLAR: EDUCATIONSECTOR: EDUCATION
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services able throughout Afghanista
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PILLAR: AGRICULTURE & RURAL DEVELOP
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PILLAR: SOCIAL PROTECTIONSECTOR: RE
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G:Islamic Republic of AfghanistanAf
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