Beyond Energy: <strong>Low</strong>-<strong>Carbon</strong> Pathsin Cities and Forests<strong>The</strong> futures <strong>of</strong> cities, urban transport, and growth are intertwined. Urban agglomerationshave the potential to provide a high-productivity, integrated labor market ifurban services, especially transportation, work efficiently. Once urban layouts havebeen established, they can persist for decades, even centuries, shaping circulationpatterns (Shalizi and Lecocq 2009). So avoiding lock-in is important for urban efficiency(and lower emissions) in those countries that are still urbanizing.Since the adoption <strong>of</strong> the SFDCC, the WBG has launchednew analytic and collaborative activities to promote efficientcities, including the Eco2 Initiative and ESMAP’s EnergyEfficient Cities Initiative.Urban TransitThis section examines bus rapid transit (BRT), for whichthere is a longer track record. Invented in the city <strong>of</strong> Curitiba,Brazil, in the 1960s, this is emerging as the single largestline <strong>of</strong> WBG action within urban transportation.BRT refers to a range <strong>of</strong> options (FTA 2003). At a minimum,it involves moving buses out <strong>of</strong> mixed traffic into buspriority lanes or into exclusive bus lanes as a way to appealto passengers who put a premium on time savings. Atthe high end, it includes bus rapid transit systems (BRTS).A low-budget version <strong>of</strong> a metro system, BRTS use articulatedbuses on dedicated roadways, allowing the systemto move more people more quickly than traditional buseson shared, clogged roadways. <strong>The</strong> capital costs (per kilometer<strong>of</strong> line) <strong>of</strong> a BRT can be a quarter to a third <strong>of</strong> thecost <strong>of</strong> building a comparable tramway and 5–10 percent<strong>of</strong> the cost <strong>of</strong> a metro system. (Nonetheless, metros may becost-effective in certain high-density locales, and the <strong>World</strong><strong>Bank</strong> continues to support them.)Transport, development, and climateIn the non-OECD countries, GHG emissions from transportnearly doubled from 1990 to 2006, and transport’sshare <strong>of</strong> emissions rose from 5.6 to 12.8 percent. 1 If thesecountries emulate developed countries, transport emissionswill continue to grow rapidly. At the global level, within thetransport sector, the land transport subsector accounted for85 percent <strong>of</strong> all energy consumed in 2009. To make a dentin CO 2reduction in the transport sector, the primary focuswill have to be on road transport, both within and betweencities.In already urbanized regions such as Latin America, publictransport typically accounts for at least half <strong>of</strong> public trips.<strong>The</strong>re is an opportunity for developing countries to maintainthis high share for public transport if they can avoidthe death spiral found in developed countries. In that spiral,a burgeoning middle class abandons poor-quality publictransport for autos, imposing congestion and pollutioncosts on everyone. With ridership declining, public transitis forced to raise fares or further reduce quality, drivingaway more passengers, with a share declining to 10 or20 percent.Developing countries may be able to avoidthe spiral <strong>of</strong> declining public transportquality, rising fares, and declining marketshare that some developed countries haveexperienced.<strong>The</strong> consequences <strong>of</strong> this spiral are dire for developingcountry cities because <strong>of</strong> their lack <strong>of</strong> road capacity. Inmany developing countries, the circulation system in citiesaccounts for 10–20 percent <strong>of</strong> the urban area, in contrast to35–50 percent in developed countries. Squeezing more carsonto limited roadways generates congestion and heightenedCO 2emissions.48 | Climate Change and the <strong>World</strong> <strong>Bank</strong> Group
<strong>The</strong> WBG urban transport portfolio (2003–08)<strong>The</strong> IEG review <strong>of</strong> the overall transport portfolio (IEG2007) noted that the number <strong>of</strong> urban transport operationsis small relative to the scale <strong>of</strong> the problem. It suggestedthat the limited activity may reflect the complexity <strong>of</strong> theseprojects, but nonetheless it recommended that this subsector<strong>of</strong> activity should grow. Since then the WBG TransportBusiness Strategy for 2008–12 has identified climate changeas one <strong>of</strong> its five strategic objectives.Bus rapid transit projects, many withcarbon objectives, multiplied at the <strong>Bank</strong>after 2002.During 2003–08 there were 36 <strong>World</strong> <strong>Bank</strong> urban transportoperations, versus 37 in the previous five-year period1998–2002. However, average <strong>Bank</strong> commitments per yeardeclined from $713 to $611 million. <strong>The</strong> decline in part reflectsa complete lack <strong>of</strong> new operations in South Asia in2003–08. However, a post-2008 upsurge may signal a partialreversal <strong>of</strong> trends.During 2003–08, there was a clear shift toward BRT. <strong>The</strong>rewere 19 such operations (11 for full BRTS), compared with6 in 1998–2002 (only one <strong>of</strong> which was for a BRTS). <strong>The</strong>new operations were concentrated in Latin America andEast Asia.Attention to carbon has been increasing. During 2003–08,39 percent <strong>of</strong> the urban transport operations had formalor informal 2 carbon reduction goals, versus 19 percent inthe prereview period. As many as 10 operations in 2003–08had components to monitor carbon reduction (comparedto only 1 in the previous period), 6 <strong>of</strong> which involved GEFfinancing to develop the components.Barriers and interventions to reducing congestion andCO 2emissionsBRTSs face a number <strong>of</strong> barriers:• Conflicting demand for road space. Establishing dedicatedbus lanes can displace other road users, creating resistanceto the loss <strong>of</strong> circulation space and leading to spillover<strong>of</strong> traffic to neighboring roads. Demand managementand parking restrictions are potential responses.• Institutional problems. <strong>The</strong> real benefits <strong>of</strong> mass publictransportation are only realized with a multicorridortrunk route system that is linked to a series <strong>of</strong> feederroutes. Scaling up to such a system puts a premium oncoordinated planning in multi-jurisdictional metropolitanareas and on sustained long-term political commitmentto routes and land use zoning.• Opposition by taxi and minivan owners. BRT achievespollution, congestion, and carbon emissions reductionslargely by substituting for existing fleets <strong>of</strong> minibuses.Such fleets are highly polluting and unsafe but employthousands <strong>of</strong> drivers, who tend to oppose change. Thisprocess has proven to be politically contentious in manycities; responses include finding ways to integrate the driversinto the new system or otherwise compensate them.Photo by Curt Carnemark, courtesy <strong>of</strong> the <strong>World</strong> <strong>Bank</strong>Photo Library.Beyond Energy: <strong>Low</strong>-<strong>Carbon</strong> Paths in Cities and Forests | 49
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Phase II: The Challenge of Low-Carb
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CLIMATE CHANGE AND THE WORLD BANK G
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Table of ContentsAbbreviations . .
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Figures1.1 GHG Emissions by Sector
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AcknowledgmentsThe report was prepa
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Executive SummaryUnabated, climate
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esettlement plans has been ineffect
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Scale up high-impact investmentsEne
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Major monitorable IEGrecommendation
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Major monitorable IEGrecommendation
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Chairman’s Summary: Committee onD
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most places. Before we get there, w
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attention. In a couple of decades,
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Table C.2Completed Low-Carbon Energ
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the new capacity. Transmission syst
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IEG eliminated a few cases of doubl
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Appendix JRecent WBG Developments i
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overnight. The Bank can provide ass
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Hartshorn, G., P. Ferraro, and B. S
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______. 2007. World Development Ind
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IEG PublicationsAnalyzing the Effec