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The Challenge of Low-Carbon Development - World Bank Internet ...

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Renewable EnergyThis evaluation devotes special attention to energy because it is by far the largestpart <strong>of</strong> the mitigation-relevant WBG portfolio, is the focus <strong>of</strong> most existing mitigationorientedprojects and funds, and will play the dominant role in long-term mitigationefforts. As an introduction to both chapters on energy, this section begins by reviewingthe outcomes <strong>of</strong> evaluated renewable energy and energy efficiency projects and thencomprehensively describes the recent pattern <strong>of</strong> low-carbon energy investments.<strong>The</strong> chapter goes on to discuss the impact <strong>of</strong> interventions to overcome barriersto on-grid renewable energy investment. It then discusses the experience withhydropower and with solar photovoltaics, the on-grid and <strong>of</strong>f-grid renewable energytechnologies, respectively, with the longest evaluable record at the WBG.<strong>Low</strong>-<strong>Carbon</strong> Energy Projects and <strong>The</strong>irPerformanceAs a backdrop it is useful to consider the International EnergyAgency’s projections <strong>of</strong> how future power needs willbe met over the coming two decades, in two scenarios:reference and ambitious mitigation (450 parts per million;table 2.1). While some energy efficiency is includedin the reference scenario, additional efficiency is the mainway to satisfy demand while reducing emissions. In bothscenarios, increases in hydropower far outpace growth inother types <strong>of</strong> renewable energy outside the Organisationfor Economic Co-operation and <strong>Development</strong> (OECD).Performance <strong>of</strong> closed <strong>World</strong> <strong>Bank</strong> projectsInvestments in low-carbon energy have increased considerablyover the past five years, so most are still ongoing andunevaluated. 1 Of <strong>World</strong> <strong>Bank</strong> renewable energy and energyefficiency projects 2 initiated between 1990 and 2007, 91 hadclosed and been evaluated by 2009. Table 2.2 shows the outcome<strong>of</strong> these projects as rated by IEG.Two-thirds <strong>of</strong> evaluated renewable energyand energy efficiency projects since1990 had outcome ratings <strong>of</strong> moderatelysatisfactory or better.Table 2.1 International Energy Agency Projections <strong>of</strong> Power Production, 2007–30Increase in electricity generation 2007–30: baseline versus 450 ppm CO2 scenarios (terawatt hours per year)2007–30 increase under baseline 2007–30 increase under 450 ppmPower source OECD+ Rest <strong>of</strong> world OECD+ Rest <strong>of</strong> worldHydro 164 1,437 384 2,196Wind 918 443 1,425 1,180Solar 215 182 376 554Other renewable energy 330 414 536 957Fossil and nuclear power 790 9,644 –1,175 3,751Total electricity generation 2,417 12,120 1,546 8,638Incremental energy efficiency 871 3,482Source: OECD/IEA 2009.Note: Energy efficiency includes price-induced demand reduction. OECD+ = Organisation for EconomicCo-operation and <strong>Development</strong> + non-OECD European Union members; ppm = parts per million.12 | Climate Change and the <strong>World</strong> <strong>Bank</strong> Group

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