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The second challenge is the need to be current. IEG’s evaluationsoften build heavily on completion reviews of closedprojects. That is not feasible in this case. On one hand, thenumber of projects has increased dramatically over the pastdecade, technology and financial engineering are changingrapidly, and the national and international policy contextis in flux. On the other hand, IFC projects are typically notevaluated until five years after approval, and Bank projectsare not evaluated until closure, often eight years or moreafter approval. Consequently, of the renewable energy andenergy efficiency projects initiated since 1990, IEG has evaluatedonly about 100; and though more than 450 projectswere initiated between 2003 and 2008, IEG has evaluatedonly 3 of them.These considerations lead to the following definitions ofscope.Temporal scopeFor background, the evaluation relies on a detailed andcomprehensive review of the low-carbon energy and urbantransportation portfolios from 2003 to 2008 and a comprehensivebut less-detailed review of the forest portfolio for2002–08. The post-2008 increase in climate-related activitiescould not be covered in detail, but is briefly describedin appendix J. For subsectoral analyses, however (such assolar photovoltaics or hydropower), the evaluation rangesback as far as 1990 to take advantage of information fromclosed and evaluated projects. It may also report on currentactivities.This evaluation looks at attempts toovercome the barriers that inhibit adoptionand diffusion of favorable technologies andpractices.Topical scopeThe evaluation is concerned with evidence of attempts tosurmount the barriers that inhibit the adoption and diffusionof low-carbon technologies and practices. Henceit excludes most attention to the WBG’s “high-carbon”activities, such as oil exploration, road construction, andthermal power. Indeed, as pointed out in the Phase I evaluation(IEG 2009), anything the WBG does to promoteeconomic growth will tend to put upward pressure on GHGemissions.Instead, the evaluation focuses on projects that potentiallypromote development and reduce GHG emissions, regardlessof whether they had a GHG goal. Where such a goalexists, it is appropriate to evaluate the WBG’s success inachieving it. Even where there was no explicit goal, it isuseful to try to understand the determinants of success orfailure.Pragmatically, these low-carbon sectors are renewableenergy, energy efficiency, urban transit, and forest projectsrelated to afforestation or reduced deforestation. The choiceof, and emphasis on, these broad sectors (energy efficiency,renewable energy, forestry, and transport) was informedby consideration of current overall emissions levels(figure 1.1), prospects for emission reductions (figure 1.2),emphasis in the Climate Investment Funds, and the scale ofWBG commitments.An important but unavoidable omission was a detailedtreatment of agriculture. Agriculture is a large source ofemissions from developing countries. Rice paddies andcattle, in particular, emit large quantities of methane. However,understanding of agricultural abatement options andtheir impacts is far less advanced than for energy, transport,and forestry. The evaluative base is small. So although thisis a crucial area for research and piloting, this evaluationlimits discussion to an agroforestry project that illustratesthe potential for climate cobenefits from agriculturaldevelopment.The core of the evaluation is an in-depth discussion ofspecific subsectors that are important areas in their ownright but that also illustrate the challenges affecting thebroader sectors to which they belong. For instance, thechallenge of promoting low-emissions urban transportationis illustrated through a detailed examination of busrapid transit, which is the single largest line of WBG actionin urban transit and ties together the issues of modalshift, fuel shift, and land use that are central to a city’stransport footprint.Table 1.1 presents a topical map of the evaluation.The choice of subsectors was informed by considerations ofevaluability (track record and data), current overall emissionlevels (figure 1.1), potential for generalizable lessons,and scale of 2003–08 WBG commitments.Within renewable energy there are in-depth discussionsof hydropower and solar home photovoltaic systems, thelargest and most longstanding areas of on-grid and offgridinvestment, respectively. There is also a discussionof the economics of on-grid renewable power that appliesto all technologies. A significant omission is biomasstechnology, itself a very heterogeneous category. Figure1.3 compares renewable energy coverage to the 2003–08portfolio.Within energy efficiency there is extensive discussion ofinvestments via financial intermediaries and of projectsthat reduce transmission and distribution losses. Togetherthese comprise about half the 2003–08 portfolio(figure 1.4). Also discussed at length are projects involvingcompact fluorescent light bulbs (CFLs), a tiny part of theportfolio, but, it is argued, one worthy of scaling up. The8 | Climate Change and the World Bank Group
Table 1.1 Map of the EvaluationSectorSpecific technologies and practicesOn-grid renewable energySubsectorHydropowerWindLandfill gasGeothermalBiomass, biogasOff-grid renewable energySolar photovoltaicOff-grid hydropowerBiomassEnergy efficiencyEnergy efficiency via financial intermediariesDirect investment in industrial energy efficiencyEfficient lightingTransmission and distribution loss reductionIncreased efficiency in coal-fired power generationDistrict heating (discussed in Phase I)Demand side management (discussed in Phase I)Building and appliance codes (discussed in Phase I)Efficient cookstovesTransportBus rapid transitDemand managementCommuter railIntercity railAircraft and truck fuel efficiencyLand use and land use changeProtected areasPayments for environmental servicesCommunity forestryPlantation forestryAgricultural carbonTechnology transferAdvanced technologiesIntellectual property rightsCarbon financeThermal powerCarbon financeCoal powerNatural gas (discussed in Phase I)Source: IEG.Note: Areas discussed are in bold type; areas not discussed are in regular type. For Phase I, see IEG 2009.discussions of the Afsin-Elbistan coal power rehabilitationand of IFC’s direct energy efficiency investments covermost of the supply-side and much of the end-user portfoliofor this period. The remaining topics, including districtheating, were covered at length in Phase I and are brieflysynopsized in this volume.Much of the WBG’s transportation investments go tointercity and rural road construction, an emissionsincreasingactivity (though with important growth andpoverty- reducing benefits), and are not considered here.Attention focuses instead on urban transit, where there ispotential scope for shifting away from carbon-intensiveauto traffic. Here, bus rapid transit and its variants constitutehalf of the overall portfolio (see figure 1.5) and 80 percentof the operations (by number) where GHG reductionis an explicit goal.Introduction | 9
Page 1 and 2: Phase II: The Challenge of Low-Carb
Page 3 and 4: CLIMATE CHANGE AND THE WORLD BANK G
Page 5 and 6: Table of ContentsAbbreviations . .
Page 7 and 8: Figures1.1 GHG Emissions by Sector
Page 9 and 10: AcknowledgmentsThe report was prepa
Page 11 and 12: Executive SummaryUnabated, climate
Page 13 and 14: esettlement plans has been ineffect
Page 15 and 16: of some technologies, such as landf
Page 17 and 18: Scale up high-impact investmentsEne
Page 19 and 20: should have been strengthened in th
Page 21 and 22: Major monitorable IEGrecommendation
Page 23 and 24: Major monitorable IEGrecommendation
Page 25 and 26: Chairman’s Summary: Committee onD
Page 27 and 28: most places. Before we get there, w
Page 29 and 30: non-Annex I countries. The World Ba
Page 31 and 32: attention. In a couple of decades,
Page 33 and 34: GlossaryAdditionalityBankabilityBas
Page 35 and 36: Joint ImplementationA mechanism und
Page 37 and 38: Chapter 1evALuAtiOn HiGHLiGHts• T
Page 39 and 40: of interventions, from technical as
Page 41 and 42: would allow industrialized countrie
Page 43: growth, poverty reduction (includin
Page 47 and 48: Chapter 2eValuaTION HIGHlIGHTS• W
Page 49 and 50: Table 2.2Evaluated World Bank Renew
Page 51 and 52: Figure 2.2Breakdown of 2003-08 Low-
Page 53 and 54: Table 2.4 Commitments to Grid-Conne
Page 55 and 56: Box 2.1The Economics of Grid-Connec
Page 57 and 58: on average (Iyadomi 2010). (Reducti
Page 59 and 60: and industrial policy. An increasin
Page 61 and 62: Table 2.6Hydropower Investments by
Page 63 and 64: costs for remaining unelectrified a
Page 65 and 66: World Bank experienceTwo factors ac
Page 67: Box 2.5On-Grid and Off-Grid Renewab
Page 70 and 71: Energy EfficiencyThe first phase in
Page 72 and 73: Box 3.1ESCOs and Energy Performance
Page 74 and 75: have had limited causal impact on t
Page 76 and 77: measurement of achieved economic re
Page 78 and 79: Since the early 1990s, public entit
Page 80 and 81: part with a $198 million IDA credit
Page 83 and 84: Chapter 4eVAluATioN HigHligHTS• B
Page 85 and 86: The WBG urban transport portfolio (
Page 87 and 88: y conventional transport systems, i
Page 89 and 90: include the forest carbon projects
Page 91 and 92: for Costa Rica for the period 2000-
Page 93 and 94: After 20 years of effort, systemati
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orrowers have demonstrated the abil
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Chapter 5EVALuATioN HigHLigHTS• O
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Consequently, the efficiency with w
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technologies could accelerate diffu
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A second issue, inherent to any adv
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goal of promoting wind turbine impr
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ConclusionsThe WBG’s efforts to p
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Table 5.1Carbon Funds at the World
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demonstration initiative. The Commu
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Impacts on technology transferThe 2
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Chapter 6Photo by Martin Wright/Ash
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Figure 6.1800Economic and Carbon Re
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Specifically, the WBG could:• Pla
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Table 6.1Summary of Sectoral Findin
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Table 6.1Sector Intervention Direct
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Appendix ARenewable Energy Tables a
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Table A.4Grid-Based Biomass/Biogass
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Table A.5 (continued)Negative examp
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Figure A.4A. Hydro/biomass capacity
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Appendix bWorld Bank Experience wit
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Table C.2Completed Low-Carbon Energ
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TAble C.4Reviewed energy efficiency
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the new capacity. Transmission syst
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Table E.2Climate obligationsCoal Pl
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Table F.2GHG objectiveModeNumber of
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IEG eliminated a few cases of doubl
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Table H.1Project andlocationBioener
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Appendix ICarbon and Economic Retur
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Appendix JRecent WBG Developments i
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y providing value to standing fores
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never had an explicit corporate str
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overnight. The Bank can provide ass
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Chapter 51. From the chief economis
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Hartshorn, G., P. Ferraro, and B. S
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______. 2007. World Development Ind
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IEG PublicationsAnalyzing the Effec
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