The Challenge of Low-Carbon Development - World Bank Internet ...

EndnotesChapter 11. MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of GlobalChange (http://globalchange.mit.edu/resources/gamble/nopolicy.html)based on the research described in Sokolov andothers (2009).2. Carbon dioxide (CO 2) is the most important anthropogenicgreenhouse gas, but there are others, such as methane.All are weighted according to their relative impact on climatechange (for instance, methane is 25 times as potent as CO 2).The weighted sum is expressed as CO 2-equivalent, ppm.Chapter 21. World Bank projects are evaluated after closure, andmany investment projects last six to eight years or more.IFC projects are usually evaluated five years after the initialinvestment.2. This set of projects follows the official classification ofprojects in an internal World Bank database. That classificationmay exclude some supply-side energy efficiencyprojects, including those that reduce T&D losses.3. Classification based on 2009 status.4. Data are from the Development Outcome TrackingSystem.5. IEG’s calculation of Bonn Commitment volume exceedmanagement’s report for 2005–08; no verification was attemptedfor the 2009 report.6. But see Deichmann and others (2010), whose spatialanalysis of Ethiopia suggests surprisingly broad competitivenessfor grid-based electricity.7. To impute the capacity factor, nominal capacity wasmultiplied by the ratio of actual certified emission reductions/designcertified emission reductions.8. For comparison, the average price of World Bankpurchasedcarbon credit is $8.07, according to the CarbonFinance Unit’s 2009 annual report. Average primary CERprice in 2009 was $12.69 according to World Bank (2010).9. Data from January 2009.10. The World Bank has recently supported an IndonesiaInfrastructure Guarantee Fund, though it is not specificallytargeted on renewable energy.11. Two supported both on- and off-grid.12. Global average, excluding high-income countries, fromWorld Development Indicators 2007 (World Bank 2007).13. The Sri Lanka Renewable Energy for Rural EconomicDevelopment Project has an exemplary monitoring systemand undertook a consumer satisfaction survey in 2006, butsubsequent monitoring reports complained of an inadequateresponse rate.Chapter 31. Tunisia (2005, $8.5 million) and Uruguay (2004,$6.9 million) were excluded for geographic coherence.2. Many efficiency projects involve replacement of oldequipment with new machinery that is both more efficientbut also has higher production capacity—for instance, replacinga bakery oven with a new one that produces twice asmuch bread per day. Energy savings are calculated by assumingthat, absent the project, the production would have beenexpanded using the old technology. This seems unlikely.3. Environment Canada: http://www.ec.go.ca.4. An intermediate category of scrutiny for environmentalimpacts.Chapter 41. Source is CAIT 7.0. Tabulation includes all GHGs andland use change.2. If a project had performance indicators linked to GHGreductions, it was classed as having a formal goal. Otherwise,if the project mentioned GHG reductions as a projectbenefit, it was classed as having an informal goal.3. Coincident with the financial crisis, which saw aBank-wide increase in Development Policy Loans, about$600 million in forest-related loans were committed duringfiscal 2009–10.4. The payments in question were for avoided deforestation,not for reforestation or natural regeneration. Thus,this observation of increased forest growth could either indicatea real but indirect impact (for instance, the abandonmentof marginal grazing land due to the PES payment) ora spurious correlation (the recipients’ land may, in fact, beof poorer quality than the control group’s, for reasons thatare not observable, with the result that they are more likelyto give up grazing).5. The Regional Silvopastoral Project is the reportedly thefirst World Bank-executed conservation project framed asan experiment. A review of the Nicaragua component ofthe project (GEFEO 2009) found that its control group waspoorly constituted and unsuitable for control/treatmentcomparisons. The Colombia component appears to have abetter constructed control group.122 | Climate Change and the World Bank Group