Redrawing the energy-climate map - World Energy Outlook Special ...

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Figure 1.11 Energy-related CO 2 emissions by countryGt353025201510Other non-OECDMiddle EastIndiaChinaOther OECDEuropean UnionJapan161446558700600500400300200Cumulave emissions (Gt)5United States 921001900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2012Sources: IEA databases and analysis Boden et al., (2013).1900-'291930-'591960-'891990-2012Trends in energy-related CO 2 emissions connue to be bound closely to those of the globaleconomy (Figure 1.12), with the few declines observed in the last 40 years being associatedwith events such as the oil price crises of the 1970s and the recent global recession. Thecarbon intensity of the economy has generally improved over me (GDP growth typicallyexceeds growth in CO 2 emissions), but the last decade has seen energy demand growthaccelerate and the rate of decarbonisaon slow mainly linked to growth in fossil-fueldemand in developing countries.Figure 1.12 Growth in global GDP and in energy-related CO 2 emissions8%6%GDP growth (MER)Change in CO 2 emissions4%2%0%-2%1972 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010Note: MER market exchange rate.2012© OECD/IEA, 2013A simple comparison between OECD Europe or the United States, and China or Indiareveals a signicant dierence in GDP and CO 2 trends over me (Figure 1.13). In OECDEurope and the United States, GDP has more than doubled or tripled over the last 40 yearswhile CO 2 emissions have increased by 2% and 18% respecvely. In China and India, GDPand CO 2 emissions have grown at closer rates, reecng their dierent stage of economic30 World Energy Outlook | Special Report
development. This resulted in Chinas emissions overtaking those of the United States in2006, despite its economy being less than one-third the sie.Figure 1.13 GDP and energy-related CO 2 emissions in selected countriesTrillion dollars (2011)2016128420161284GtGDP (MER):United StatesOECD EuropeChinaIndiaCO 2 emissions:(right axis)United StatesOECD EuropeChinaIndia12341971 1975 1985 1995 2005Note: MER market exchange rate.2012Global CO 2 per-capita emissions, having uctuated within a range from around 3.7 to4 tonnes CO 2 from the early 1970s to the early 2000s, have now pushed strongly beyondit, to 4.5 tonnes. Developed countries typically emit far larger amounts of CO 2 percapita than the world average, but some developing economies are experiencing rapidincreases (Figure 1.14). Between 1990 and 2012, Chinas per-capita emissions tripled,rapidly converging with the level in Europe, while Indias more than doubled, thoughremaining well below the global average. Over the same period, per-capita emissionsdecreased signicantly in Russia and the United States, yet remained at relavely highlevels.Figure 1.14 Energy-related CO 2 emissions per capita and CO 2 intensity inselected regionsTonnes per thousand dollars of GDP($2011, MER)2.42.01.61.20.80.4IndiaEuropean UnionChinaRussiaJapanUnited StatesKey19902012© OECD/IEA, 20130 3 6 9 12 15 18 21Tonnes per capitaNotes: Bubble area indicates total annual energy-related CO 2 emissions in that region. MER marketexchange rate.Chapter 1 | Climate and energy trends 31
Page 1: REDRAWINGTHEENERGY-CLIMATEMAPWorld
Page 6 and 7: © OECD/IEA, 2013lle Brornelis Bloa
Page 8 and 9: Dr ah BirolChief EconomistDirector,
Page 10 and 11: Economic impact of climate policies
Page 12 and 13: equired under a 2 °C trajectory. T
Page 14 and 15: energy sector and increase the risk
Page 16 and 17: ntroduconClimate change is a dening
Page 18 and 19: Carbon pricing is gradually becomin
Page 20: Figure 1.2 Mapping feasible world
Page 23: of Chinas largest cies and the gove
Page 28 and 29: large demonstraon projects will be
Page 30 and 31: CO 2 emissions increased also in th
Page 34 and 35: Trends by energy sectorThe power an
Page 36 and 37: the scenarios over the projecon per
Page 38 and 39: In the 450 Scenario, CO 2 emissions
Page 40 and 41: of 36 billion gallons of biofuels b
Page 43 and 44: The 24% reducon in the cost of loca
Page 45 and 46: Chapter 2Energy policies to keep th
Page 47 and 48: than the reducon expected to be ach
Page 49 and 50: Figure 2.1 Policy pillars of the 4
Page 51 and 52: Box 2.1 Mitigating short-lived cli
Page 53 and 54: The assumed policy measures go a lo
Page 55 and 56: Figure 2.3 Change in energy-relate
Page 57 and 58: total. Many of these savings are ma
Page 59 and 60: Ministerial in New Delhi in April 2
Page 61 and 62: The extent of the potenal reducon i
Page 63 and 64: was tested in ve provinces in 2007
Page 65 and 66: emissions esmates rely primarily on
Page 67 and 68: Gas that becomes available in relav
Page 69 and 70: y an addional 25% by 2020, before b
Page 71 and 72: Because of the social sensivity of
Page 73 and 74: Figure 2.12 Average annual GDP gro
Page 75 and 76: The manufacturing sector also sees
Page 77 and 78: y rms for other goods, notably manu
Page 79 and 80: (or almost 40%) higher than in the
Page 81 and 82: Box 2.4 Policies to support CCSCCS
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transion must move from being incre
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Chapter 3Managing climate risks to
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eliability and accelerang the deter
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Box 3.2 Extreme weather - a new fa
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Figure 3.2 Projected annual maximu
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in 2050, with most of the increase
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Growing producon of unconvenonal ga
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changes in performance will have a
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adaptaon. Unless the resilience of
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capture and storage (CCS) is widely
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In the power sector, gross revenues
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Box 3.3 Implications of decarbonis
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uilt than in the New Policies Scena
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higher than the level of the last t
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e recovered in the longer term. In
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distances using trucks, railways, r
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Implicaons of delayed aconOur 450 S
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is required to retrot buildings acr
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Annex AUnits and conversion factors
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Annex BReferencesChapter 1: Climate
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Point Carbon (2013), ,, accessed 21
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UNEP (United Naons Environment Prog
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NCADAC (US Naonal Climate Assessmen
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© OECD/IEA, 2013
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TABLE OF CONTENTS1UNDERSTANDING THE
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