Energy Strategy 2050 – from coal, oil and gas

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A flexible strategy Key elements A number of technologies and focus areas already well known today will probably be pivotal in a cost effective transport and energy system without fossil fuels. The energy technologies with significance for the energy system today have been known and used for more than 40 years. Clearly these technologies will develop, but it is likely that the energy system of 2050 will be borne by technologies we already know today. Likely elements in an energy and transport system independent of fossil fuels are: A highly efficient energy consumption A cost effective energy system, independent of fossil fuels, requires significant improvements in energy efficiency. Demand for energy services will very likely be considerably higher than today, but energy services will be supplied using a lower amount of energy. Therefore, in 2050 Danish energy consumption could be more than 50% more efficient overall. This is partly due to the fact that far-reaching energy efficiency improvements could make more financial sense than increasing energy supply. Electrification of heating, industry and transport There are strong indications that in 2050 many more energy services than today will come through electricity. District heating, individual heating systems and industrial installations can be based on electricity. Transport can be electrified by converting cars, railways and, to a cer- 18 Energy Strategy 2050 – from coal, oil and gas to green energy. A cost effective energy system, independent of fossil fuels, requires significant improvements in energy efficiency tain extent, busses and lorries to electricity. This will also provide massive efficiency improvements as combustion motors typically waste four-fifths of the energy, while only one-fifth is lost in electric motors. Electric cars will probably be an important transport technology, but in 2011 it is not possible to predict exactly the comparative roles and advantages of, for example, electric cars, plug-in hybrids or fuel-cell cars, in 2050. More electricity from wind power It is very likely that wind power will account for a very large amount of future electricity production. Wind is one of the renewable energy sources showing greatest physical potential in Denmark, and costs are expected to drop. In principle, wind power could cover current levels of electricity consumption many times over. Today, production costs are lowest for onshore turbines, but there are only limited locations to site them. Therefore, offshore wind turbines will probably be crucial, even though production costs are higher than for onshore installations. An efficient utilisation of biomass resources In the future, biomass will play an even more important role in the energy system than today. This will be to cover a large proportion of CHP production, and also probably to produce biofuels for heavy and very energydemanding modes of transport such as aircraft and heavy goods vehicles. However, the potential in biomass is not unlimited. If global demand for biomass increases, so will the costs of utilising biomass.
Utilisation of biogas The natural gas grid and its associated storage facilities could also play a key role in an energy system without fossil fuels. This may be through utilising biogas and possibly other types of gas from organic sources. RE gasses can be used at CHP plants in the same way as solid biomass and thereby they can act as a balance for the fluctuating electricity production from wind turbines. Photovoltaic solar modules and wave power as supplements In the longer term, photovoltaic solar modules and wave power could replace some wind power. How much wind power they will replace will depend on technological development. Photovoltaic solar modules are a well tested technology, but at present they are more expensive than electricity from wind turbines. However, there may be technical and financial advantages in spreading electricity production between different technologies. Wave power is still at the developmental stage, but it may play a role in the long term. Spreading RE-based district heating and individual heating District heating systems make it possible to incorporate large amounts of fluctuating renewable energy at relatively low investment requirements. Continued exploitation and expansion of this infrastructure is an important element. There are strong indications of significant cost effectiveness potentials in converting from individual natural gas supply to district heating. The challenge is to find an appropriate cut-off between district heating and individual heating in a technical and economic context. An intelligent energy system Energy production with significant amounts of fluctuating energy places pressure on the energy system to ensure that energy consumption can be covered hour by hour. Most important is exchange with foreign countries, and this requires gradual expansion of transmission capacity. In addition, there is the need for more flexible (intelligent) electricity consumption so that electricity is used for heat pumps, electric boilers and to recharge electric cars, for example, when there are strong winds and normal electricity consumption is low. Finally, there will be a need for electricity storage capacity which can be supplied cost effectively by the Norwegian and Swedish hydropower facilities. However, it is possible that other types of electricity storage, for example based on battery technology, could in the future supplement foreign electricity trade. Energy Strategy 2050 – from coal, oil and gas to green energy. 19
Page 1 and 2: energy strategy 2050 - from coal, o
Page 3 and 4: Content Preface ...................
Page 5 and 6: A new era for energy policy Energy
Page 7 and 8: The goal of the Danish government i
Page 9 and 10: What is implied by independence of
Page 11 and 12: Energy is a prerequisite for a mode
Page 13 and 14: Security of supply can be expressed
Page 15 and 16: The International Energy Agency (IE
Page 17: In 2050 Denmark could well be a wea
Page 21 and 22: Observed climate change The average
Page 23 and 24: Figure 2.2 illustrates that, in add
Page 25 and 26: Degree of commercialisation Mass ma
Page 27 and 28: Track 1. Examples where the transit
Page 29 and 30: With this strategy, the government
Page 31 and 32: Background The government will Good
Page 33 and 34: A greater use of biomass Background
Page 35 and 36: Background The government will A hi
Page 37 and 38: Background The government will A co
Page 39 and 40: Background The government will An e
Page 41 and 42: Ambitious endeavours for a global t
Page 43 and 44: Background The government will An E
Page 45 and 46: Background The government will An e
Page 47 and 48: The government’s strategy contain
Page 49 and 50: On the way towards fossilfuel indep
Page 51 and 52: 900 875 850 825 800 775 PJ 0 2006 2
Page 53 and 54: Efforts for greenhouse gas reductio
Page 55 and 56: Thus this strategy provides Danish
Page 57 and 58: The transition to fossil fuel indep
Page 59 and 60: An important tool to achieve more e
Page 61 and 62: The goal of fossil fuel independenc
Page 63 and 64: A stable energy costs framework for
Page 65 and 66: Energy Strategy 2050 - from coal, o

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