Manual on sea level measurement and ... - unesdoc - Unesco

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Sea Level Measurement and Interpretationcomponents of the sea level variations (e.g. storm surges,tsunami) and the long-term trend.Many organizations have developed their own methodof tidal analysis. Apart from the Response Method (Munkand Cartwright, 1966), these methods generally fit, insome optimal way, a set of harmonic constituents tothe data. This can be done in several different ways. TheAdmiralty Semi-Graphic Method and those of Doodson(1928) were designed for hand calculations. Most moderntechniques (Murray, 1963; Foreman, 1997) rely on theability of the computer to solve large sets of simultaneousequations. Many have been converted to ‘user friendly’packages and are available from the following website:http://www.pol.ac.uk/psmsl/training/analysis.html.2.5 Storm SurgesThe exchange of energy between the atmosphere and theocean is one of the most important topics in geophysics.Storm surges are among the more spectacular examplesof energy transfer in which the energy contained in windsand time-dependent changes in air pressure are absorbedby the sea to produce strong currents and high sea levels.In the open sea these currents decay by the action of dissipativeforces. Where the current is impeded by the presenceof a continental shelf or other discontinuity in depth,or by a coastline, more of the kinetic energy of the seatends to be converted into potential energy. Abnormalelevations of sea level may then occur, with disastrousresults if the coast is low-lying.Physically, the atmosphere acts on the sea in two distinctlydifferent ways. The first is the ‘Inverse Barometer (IB)Effect’ wherein a 1-hPa (mbar) increase of atmosphericpressure decreases sea level by 1 centimetre. (Dynamicaleffects can complicate this simple IB description at shorttime-scales.) The second is due to the drag (or ‘stress’)of the wind on the sea surface, which is proportional (toa first approximation) to the square of the wind speed.This force sets up sea level gradients which are proportionalto wind stress divided by water depth, and whichresult in the storm surges in shallow water regions. Thedynamics of surges in shallow water result in flow beingin the direction of the wind, differing from a deeperwater situation in which the transport is at right anglesto the wind (to the right in the northern hemisphere).Recordings of sea level at any coastal station containsome evidence of the influence of winds and pressure,but some areas are particularly susceptible to largesurges. The Baltic, being virtually an enclosed sea andsubject on occasion to severe gales, experiences largesurges. In 1924 St. Petersburg (Leningrad) was floodedby a surge 4 m high. The North Sea, with its southernextremity almost closed, responds readily to northerlywinds; the vulnerable coastlines of the German Bight,eastern England and more particularly the Low Countrieshave repeatedly been inundated by great surges. Thestorm surge of 1953 resulted in many deaths in TheNetherlands and England. The Hamburg disaster of1962 was more localized, mainly affecting the GermanBight and the River Elbe, where the surge reached morethan 3 m in height.Hurricanes travelling towards the Atlantic seaboard ofthe United States are no less effective in generatingdestructive surges. The Japanese islands are also subjectto typhoon surges. Events on this scale demand as completean understanding of the phenomena as possibleso that they may be forecast (using forecast meteorologicalinformation) and their consequences mitigated.After the immediate danger of flooding, the subsequentdislocation of normal services, such as water suppliesand sewerage, gives rise to serious dangers. Also, onceflooded by sea water, previously fertile lands are unsuitablefor growing crops for several years because ofthe saline deposit which remains after the floods havereceded.For scientific analysis and for systems designed for surgeprediction, it is usual to distinguish between tropical andextra-tropical surges.Tropical surges are generated by tropical storms that aresmall and very intense. These storms are generated atsea, from where they move in an irregular way until theymeet the coast. Here they produce exceptionally largeflood levels over a region of perhaps 10–50 km of coastline.Tropical storms are difficult to monitor offshore andtheir effects on a particular stretch of coastline cannot beestimated from the statistics of observed floods becausesuch storms are relatively rare events in any particularregion. A combination of numerical and statistical modelsmay be used to estimate the maximum flood levels,but their exact location depends on the track of eachindividual storm.Extra-tropical surges are generated by storms whichextend over several hundred kilometres and which aregenerally slow moving. They affect large areas of coastover periods that may extend to several days. At theircentre is a region of low atmospheric pressure. They aremore amenable to study by hydrodynamic modellingtaking into account the distribution of atmospheric pressureand wind fields, sea bed bathymetry, the coastaltopography and the effects of the Earth’s rotation.A tide gauge network by which the storm surge canbe monitored is of key importance in providing data toenhance the performance of operational hydrodynamictide–surge models used in flood warning. Data canbe used in the verification of the models and for dataassimilation into them (Flather, 2000; Alvarez Fanjul,2001). Such a network clearly has to be capable ofremote telemetry on a near-real-time basis.6IOC <strong>Manual</strong>s and Guides No 14 vol IV
Sea Level Measurement and Interpretation2.6 TsunamisA tsunami is a wave train generated by a vertical displacementof the water column. Earthquakes, landslides,volcanic eruptions, explosions, and even the impactof cosmic bodies, such as meteorites, can generatetsunamis. Where they impact a coastline, theycan cause severe property damage and loss of life.Tsunamis may have wavelengths in excess of 100 kmand periods of minutes to over an hour, dependingon the generation mechanism. As a result of its longwavelength compared to the water depth, a tsunamibehaves like a shallow-water wave and propagates ata speed that is equal to the square root of the productof the acceleration of gravity (9.8 m.s -2 ) and the waterdepth. In a typical ocean depth of 4,000 m, a tsunamitravels at about 200 m.s -1 , or over 700 km.hr -1 . Becausethe rate at which a wave loses its energy is inverselyrelated to its wavelength, tsunamis not only propagateat high speeds, they can also travel great distanceswithout loss of energy (Figure 2.3). Tsunamis are onlyabout a metre high, at the most, in the open ocean.However, where they impact the coast, amplitudes aresignificantly higher and can be as large as 10 m (30m in extreme cases). Wave refraction, caused by segmentsof the wave moving at different speeds as thewater depth varies, can cause extreme amplification inlocalized areas.Figure 2.3 The 26 December 2004 Sumatra tsunamisignal at a distant tide gauge (Port Louis, Mauritius) withan amplitude over 1 m.The ability to warn of the approach of a tsunami dependson a variety of measurements (especially seismic data), butalso on a network of tide gauges to monitor the progressof the wave and thereby forecast the time of arrival at adistant coast and the likely affected areas. Because thepropagation speed of the waves is large, it is essential tohave real-time data transmission without any significanttime delay. Decision-making and mitigation procedureshave to be considered before warnings are issued to therelevant authorities.2.7 Mean Sea Level and TrendsThe determination of mean sea level (MSL) and its longtermtrend is probably the most exacting component of atide gauge data set. Whereas the accuracy of an instrumentin determining the properties of the tides or a stormsurge need only be about 1 cm, the long-term trend in sealevel has a magnitude of around 1 mm per year. Henceprecise measurement not only relies on the accuracy of theinstrument but also on its long-term stability. This in turnimplies an ability to maintain the datum of a tide gaugewithin a local levelling network. The levelling between,and geocentric fixing of, tide gauge benchmarks, is dealtwith in section 4.The data from the existing global network of tide gaugesclearly shows a rise in sea level over the last century. Theirdata are fundamental in studies of climate change, andespecially as an aid in the development of atmosphere–ocean general circulation models that have a capability topredict future sea level change. The mean value is extractedfrom the observed data by the application of numericalfilters discussed in Volume 1 of the IOC <strong>Manual</strong> onSea Level Measurement and Interpretation. Monthly andannual mean sea level series are collected and publishedby the Permanent Service for Mean Sea Level (PSMSL),together with details of gauge location, and definitionsof the datums to which the measurements are referred.Data are held for over 2,000 stations, of which 112 havedata from before 1900. The longest record held is fromBrest, France, which begins in 1806. The physical locationof gauges on the network is not ideal: the vast majority ofgauges operate in the northern hemisphere and carefulanalysis is necessary to avoid bias in the interpretation oftheir data. There is a continuing need for more data fromthe southern hemisphere, and from oceanic islands.The change in mean sea level relative to a fixed point onland is a measure of the difference between the verticalmovements of the sea’s surface and of the land itself. Longtermchanges of measured sea level are termed ‘secular’changes. Global changes in the mean sea level are called‘eustatic’ changes. Vertical land movements of regionalextent are called eperiogenic movements. Examples ofsuch long-term changes can be obtained from the PSMSLwebsite. Study of the records will show that there aremany similarities between stations which can be considered‘nearby’ relative to ocean and geological space-scales. Theclose agreement between stations using different kindsof instruments shows that the oceanographic variability ismuch greater than the errors in the measurements.2.8 Estimation of Extreme Sea Levels2.8.1 IntroductionThe aim of this section is to summarize the key methodswhich can be used for the estimation of extremeIOC <strong>Manual</strong>s and Guides No 14 vol IV7
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