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Microfinance Banana Skins 2008 - Citigroup

Microfinance Banana Skins 2008 - Citigroup

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C S F I / New York CSFIsubsidies”. A A risk risk analyst in in Peru Peru said: said: “Whenever possible, and and without affectingthe the soundness of of the the business, profitability should be be as as high high as as possible.”But But some respondents alluded to to the the Compartamos affair to to warn against excessiveprofitability (see (see box). A A respondent from from Bolivia said: said: “The vision of of quickprofitability is is the the highest risk risk for for this this field.” The The strength of of feeling about the thedangers of of mission drift drift (see (see No No 14) 14) suggests that that profitability needs to to know its itsplace.23. Macro-economic trends“There is is a a needto to manage for forthe eventualdownturn”The The localised nature of microfinance tends to to insulate it it from from wider economic trends,and and the the evidence is is that that MFIs have have weathered recent storms quite well. The Thegrowth of of local local funding sources has has helped, and and the the low low correlation with withdevelopments at at the the macro level level has has appealed to to outside investors. But But this this couldchange as as more MFIs move into into the the mainstream and and expose themselves to to forcesbeyond their their control, such such as as the the current global credit crunch.Furthermore, MFI MFI vulnerability to to macro trends may may not not have have been been fully fully testedbecause many emerging economies are are still still strong and and provide good conditions for forprofitable growth. This This too too could change. Chikako Kuno of of the the EBRD in in London,said: said: “Countries are are booming…[but there is is a] a] need need to to manage for for the the eventualdownturn.”Marcelino San San Miguel, president of of Fundacion San San Miguel Arcangel in in the theDominican Republic, said said that that MFIs were only only vulnerable to to macro trends in in the theshort term. “In “In the the medium and and long long terms, MFIs operate in in a a market that that dependsmore on on microeconomic conditions than than macro fluctuations, though macro trendsaffect everything ... ... But But I I do do not not believe that that this this determines the the survival and andoperational management of of a a successful MFI.”What about the the global credit crunch?Although MFIs MFIs are are traditionally seen seen to to be be insulated from from trends in in global markets,that that could change as as they they become more integrated with with mainstream banking and andtherefore more vulnerable to to “contagion”.Several respondents raised the the risk risk that thatliquidity and and investment might become harder for for MFIs MFIs if if global markets continue to todeteriorate. A A Canadian economist said said that that this this “could have have a a direct impact on on the thecost cost of of capital for for microfinance institutions leading to to a slow a slow down in in the the growth of of the thesector.”If If MFIs MFIs suffer, they they will will also also lose lose one one of of their their investment appeals: lack lack of of correlationwith with global markets. In In this this case case they they would have have to to find find “other elements of ofattractiveness” to to compensate, according to to one one MFI MFI investor. Such Such a a “dose of ofreality” might be be healthy for for an an overfed industry, said said another.30 CSFI / New York CSFI E-mail: info@csfi.org.uk Web: www.csfi.org.uk

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