ROMANIAN STATISTICAL REVIEW - Revista Română de Statistică

Institutul Naţionalde StatisticăSocietatea Românăde StatisticăROMANIAN STATISTICAL REVIEW- SUPPLEMENT -INTERNATIONAL SYMPOSIUM“Romanian Economy in the GlobalizationConjecture on Crisis Background”2012

Autorii poartă întreaga răspundere pentru conţinutulmaterialelor publicate, revista şi Societatea Românăde Statistică fiind exonerate de orice răspundere.ISSN 1018-046x

„DIMITRIE CANTEMIR”CHRISTIAN UNIVERSITY,BUCHAREST, ROMANIA“ARTIFEX” UNIVERSITYOF BUCHARESTACADEMY OF ECONOMICSTUDIES, BUCHARESTDEPARTMENT OF STATISTICS ANDECONOMETRICSVALACHIA UNIVERSITY,TARGOVISTEUNIVERSITADEGLI STUDI DIPERUGIA, ITALY„VICTOR SLĂVESCU”FINANCIAL ANDMONETARY RESEARCHCENTRETECHNICAL UNIVERSITY OFKOSICE - SLOVAKIAACADEMY OF ECONOMICSTUDIES OF MOLDAVIAACADEMY OF ROMANIA“COSTIN KIRIŢESCU”NATIONAL INSTITUTE OFECONOMIC RESEARCHPOLITECHNIC UNIVERSITY OFCZESTOCHOWA, POLANDUNIVERSITADEGLI STUDI DIMESSINA, ITALYUNIVERSITY OFPETROSANIBUSINESS PARTNEREXIMBANKMEDIA PARTNERThe Romanian Statistical ReviewINTERNATIONAL SYMPOSIUM“Romanian Economy in the Globalization Conjecture on CrisisBackground”NOVEMBER 15-16, 2012Bucharest, Romania

PRESIDENTS OF HONOURProf. Dan Cruceru, PhD – President of the”Artifex” University of BucharestProf. Constantin Anghelache, PhD – President of the Senate,”Artifex” University of BucharestProf. Mircea Udrescu, PhD – Rector,”Artifex” University of BucharestProf. Momcilo Luburici, PhD – President, Founder of the”Dimitrie Cantemir” Christian University of BucharestProf. Corina Adriana Dumitrescu, PhD – Rector of the”Dimitrie Cantemir” Christian University of BucharestProf. Grigore Belostecinic, PhD – Rector of theAcademy of Economic Studies, the Republic of MoldaviaProf. Ioan Lucian Albu, PhD, Member of the Romanian AcademyProf. Constantin Mitruţ, PhD – Vice-RectorAcademy of Economic Studies, BucharestProf. Vergil Voineagu, PhD – PresidentNational Institute of Statistics, RomaniaORGANIZING COMMITTEEProf. Mircea Udrescu, PhD - ”Artifex” University of BucharestProf. Gheorghe Lepădatu, PhD - ”Dimitrie Cantemir” Christian University of BucharestProf. Manoela Popescu, PhD - ”Dimitrie Cantemir” Christian University of BucharestSenior Lecturer Andreea Băltăreţu, PhD - ”Dimitrie Cantemir” Christian University of BucharestSenior Lecturer Elena Bugudui, PhD - ”Artifex” UniversitySenior Lecturer Aurelian Diaconu, PhD - ”Artifex” UniversitySenior Lecturer Sorin Gabriel Gresoi, PhD - ”Artifex” UniversitySenior Lecturer Emanuela Ionescu, PhD - ”Artifex” UniversitySenior Lecturer Dan Năstase, PhD - ”Artifex” UniversitySenior Lecturer Anca Mihaela Teau, PhD - ”Artifex” UniversityLecturer Andrei Buiga, PhD - ”Artifex” UniversityLecturer Cătălin Deatcu, PhD- ”Artifex” UniversityLecturer Cristina Elena Protopopescu, PhD - ”Artifex” University Lecturer Mădălina Anghel, PhD Student -”Artifex” UniversityAssistant Ligia Prodan, PhD Student - ”Dimitrie Cantemir” Christian University of BucharestSCIENTIFIC COMMITTEEProf. Dumitru Moldovan, PhD,- Member of the Academy of the Republic of MoldaviaProf.Serghei Grebenicov – PhD, Member of the Academy of the Russian FederationProf. Nikolay Suchacev – PhD, St. Petersburg, Member of the Academy of the Russian FederationProf. Vasil Penchev, PhD – Russe, Member of the Academy of BulgariaProf. Guido Podesta, PhD – the European ParliamentProf. Florence Benoit Rohmer, PhD – FranceProf. Michaela Beranova, PhD- Brno, the Czech RepublicProf. Maria Nowicka-Skowron, PhD-Rector, Politechnika CzestochowskaProf. Janusz Grabara, PhD – Politechnika CzestochowskaProf. Ilona Kojelyte, PhD – Vilnius, LithuaniaProf. Kirsi - Marja Toivanen, PhD- North Karelia University, FinlandProf. Albina Girfanova, PhD – St. Petersburg, the Russian FederationProf. Mario Pagliacci, PhD – Università degli Studi di PerugiaProf. Ioan Partachi, PhD – Academy of Economic Studies, the Republic of MoldaviaSenior Lecturer Oleg Verejan, PhD – Academy of Economic Studies, the Republic of MoldaviaProf. Sehvor Besiroglu, PhD – Istanbul, TurkeyProf. Seynep Sozen, PhD- Istanbul, TurkeyProf. Jan Sadlak, PhD – UNESCO, BucharestProf. Borys Budka , PhD – Katowice, PolandProf. Cezmi Karasu, PhD – Ankara, TurkeyProf. Spiros Gropas, PhD- Arizona, USAProf. Vulfs Kozlinskid, PhD – Riga, LatviaProf. Laszlo Borbas., PhD – Budapest, HungaryProf. Pio Nodari, PhD – Trieste, ItalyProf. Irina Virginia Drăgulănescu, PhD – Universita degli Studi di Messina, Italy

Prof. Josef Novak-Marcincin, PhD – Technical University of KosiceProf. Vladimir Modrak, PhD – Technical University of KosiceProf. Vergil Voineagu, PhD – President of the National Institute of StatisticsSenior Lecturer Gabriela Pohoaţă, PhD – Prorector of “Dimitrie Cantemir” Christian UniversityProf. Constantin Mitruţ, PhD - President of the Romanian Society of StatisticsProf. Constantin Anghelache, PhD – Vice-president of the Romanian Society of Statistics, Vice-president of theGeneral Association of Economists of RomaniaProf. Gabriela Victoria Anghelache, PhD – Academy of Economic Studies, Bucharest, National SecurityCommissionProf. Dan Armeanu, PhD – Academy of Economic Studies, BucharestProf. Viorel Lefter, PhD –Academy of Economic Studies, BucharestProf. Liviu Begu, PhD – Academy of Economic Studies, BucharestProf. Tudorel Andrei, PhD – Academy of Economic Studies, BucharestProf. Marin Andreica, PhD – Academy of Economic Studies, BucharestProf. Emilia Titan, PhD – Academy of Economic Studies, BucharestProf. Ioan Constantin Dima, PhD - Valachia University, TargovisteProf. Mircea Baron, PhD - University of PetrosaniProf. Ion Stegăroiu, PhD - Valachia University, TargovisteProf. Mariana Man, PhD - University of PetrosaniProf. Constanţa Chiţiba, PhD - “Dimitrie Cantemir” Christian UniversitySenior Lecturer Marinella Turdean, PhD - “Dimitrie Cantemir” Christian UniversityProf. Viorica Ionaşcu, PhD – “Dimitrie Cantemir” Christian University Prof. Valentina Zaharia, PhD – “DimitrieCantemir” Christian UniversityProf. Nicolae Neacşu, PhD – “Dimitrie Cantemir” Christian UniversityProf. Ion Pârgaru, PhD – “Politehnica” University of BucharestProf. Radu Titus Marinescu, PhD – “Artifex” University of BucharestSenior Lecturer Radu Danciu, PhD – “Dimitrie Cantemir” Christian UniversitySenior Lecturer Cristian Barbu, PhD - “Artifex” University of BucharestSenior Lecturer Sorinel Căpuşneanu, PhD – “Artifex” University of BucharestSenior Lecturer Anca Sorina Popescu - Cruceru, PhD - “Artifex” University of BucharestSenior Lecturer Virginia Cucu, PhD - “Artifex” University of BucharestSenior Lecturer Cezar Militaru, PhD – “Dimitrie Cantemir” Christian UniversitySenior Lecturer Carmen Valentina Rădulescu, PhD – Academy of Economic Studies of BucharestSenior Lecturer Emilia Gogu, PhD – “Dimitrie Cantemir” Christian UniversitySenior Lecturer Gabriel Năstase, PhD – “Dimitrie Cantemir” Christian UniversitySenior Lecturer Cipriana Sava, PhD – “Dimitrie Cantemir” Christian UniversitySenior Lecturer Ancuţa Gianina Opre, PhD – “Dimitrie Cantemir” Christian UniversitySenior Lecturer Luminiţa Dragne, PhD – “Dimitrie Cantemir” Christian UniversitySenior Lecturer Adina Muşetescu, PhD – “Dimitrie Cantemir” Christian UniversityLecturer Titus Corlăţean, PhD – “Dimitrie Cantemir” Christian UniversityLecturer Emilia Pascu, PhD – “Dimitrie Cantemir” Christian UniversityLecturer Narcisa Isăilă, PhD – “Dimitrie Cantemir” Christian UniversityLecturer Eugen Nicolăescu, PhD – “Dimitrie Cantemir” Christian UniversityLecturer Daniel Stefan, PhD – “Dimitrie Cantemir” Christian UniversityLecturer Camelia Pavel, PhD – “Dimitrie Cantemir” Christian UniversitySenior Lecturer Alexandru Manole, PhD – “Artifex” UniversityLecturer Bogdănel Drăguţ, PhD – “Dimitrie Cantemir” Christian UniversityLecturer Alexandru Burda, PhD – “Dimitrie Cantemir” Christian University

6Revista Română de Statistică – Supliment Trim IV/2012

Table of ContentsMathematic Models Applied in the Risk Management .......................... 15Professor Gabriela-Victoria ANGHELACHE, PhDProfessor Viorel LEFTER, PhDAndreea NEGRU (CIOBANU), PhD StudentLorand KRALIK, PhD StudentUsing Time Series in the Macroeconomic Analysis ................................ 20Professor Constantin ANGHELACHE PhDProfessor Radu Titus MARINESCU, PhDSenior Lecturer Elena BUGUDUI, PhDDaniel DUMITRESCU PhD StudentChange Management and Processes of Small Companies ..................... 29Professor Mircea UDRESCU, PhDEuropean Competitiveness in the Context of Globalization ................. 39Lecturer Daniel ŞTEFAN, PhDLogistical Centres and Their Roles in Companies' Activitieson the Example of SME’s Enterprise X ................................................... 45Professor Janusz GRABARA PhDProfessor Ioan Constantin DIMA PhDBartłomiej OKWIET PhdsThe Definition of Goodwill- a Chronological Overview ......................... 54Raluca Valeria RAŢIU, PhD StudentProfessor Adriana TIRON TUDOR, PhDThe Analysis of the Capital Market Efficiency ....................................... 60Professor Gabriela-Victoria ANGHELACHE, PhDAndreea NEGRU (CIOBANU), PhD StudentCătălina Claudia SAVA, PhD StudentSome Considerations regarding Strategy and StrategicManagement in Romanian Insurance Sector .......................................... 64Lecturer Cristina PROTOPOPESCU PhDSenior Lecturer Anca-Mihaela TEAU PhDSenior Lecturer Sorin Gabriel GRESOI PhDInnovation Trends in the EU Food Industry ........................................... 68Univ. Lecturer Alexandru BURDA, PhDPositive Feedbacks, Diffusion Phenomenon and Competitionbetween Standards on the Knowledge Markets ...................................... 73Associate professor Vadim DUMITRAŞCU PhDRevista Română de Statistică – Supliment Trim IV/2012 7

Models for Evaluating the Company on FCFE and FCFF basis .......... 80Professor Gabriela-Victoria ANGHELACHE, PhDAndreea NEGRU (CIOBANU), PhD StudentProfessor Gheorghe LEPĂDATU, PhDRomania in the Globalization Context ..................................................... 87Professor Radu Titus MARINESCU PhDUsing Dynamic Series of Moments for Economic Analysis .................... 94Lecturer Diana COCONOIU, PhD StudentSenior Lecturer Elena BUGUDUI, PhDLegal Status of Juridical Persons with Not-For-Profit Purpose ............ 98Senior Lecturer Anca POPESCU-CRUCERU, PhDAssistant Eugenia-Gabriela LEUCIUC, PhD StudentViorel BĂNULESCU, PhD StudentApproach to Risks of Marketing Activity .............................................. 104Lecturer Dan NASTASE PhDOutsourcing Human Resources .............................................................. 107Lecturer Daniel ŞTEFAN, PhDTheories on the Use of Inflation in Economic Analysis ........................ 111Andreea BALTAC, PhD StudentStatistical Indicators Used in the Analysis of Portfolios of FinancialInstruments ............................................................................................... 117Lecturer Mădălina - Gabriela ANGHEL PhD StudentThe Emphasis of Negative Journalism in the EconomicCommunication, one of the Consequences of the GlobalEconomic Crisis ........................................................................................ 121Ștefan VLĂDUŢESCUThe Globalization in the Crisis Context ................................................. 127Professor Radu Titus MARINESCU PhDOpinions about Component Energetic Security .................................... 132Elena GOLUMBEANU, PhDGlobalization: Definition, Processes and Concepts ............................... 137Sandu CUTERELA - PhD studentCAPM Evaluating Relation ..................................................................... 147Professor Gabriela-Victoria ANGHELACHE, PhDProfessor Viorel LEFTER, PhDAndreea NEGRU (CIOBANU), PhD StudentGeorgeta BARDAŞU, PhD StudentRomanian Higher Education Infrastructure and Resources ............... 155Professor Mihaela MURESAN, PhDSenior Lecturer Emilia GOGU, PhD8Revista Română de Statistică – Supliment Trim IV/2012

Methodology Concerning the Utilization of the Value at Risk ............ 162Professor Gabriela-Victoria ANGHELACHE, PhDAndreea NEGRU (CIOBANU), PhD StudentLorand KRALIK, PhD StudentAggregate Measures and Related Price Indices .................................... 170Assistant Amelia DIACONU, PhD StudentThe Audit of Innovative Enterprises (Universities) inEducational Management ........................................................................ 178Associate Professor Gabriel I. NĂSTASEResearcher Dr. Engineer Dan C. BADEAConsiderations Concerning the Functioning of the KnowledgeMarkets: the Impact on Competition,Prices and Development .......................................................................... 183Associate professor Ph. D. Vadim DUMITRAŞCUMedical Staff Motivation - Essential Condition for Obtaininga High Level of Performance in Hospitals in Romania ........................ 189Adriana ZANFIR PhD StudentDetermining Factors of Persistent Recessionin Developed Economies .......................................................................... 195Univ. Reader Alexandru BURDA, PhDUniv. Reader Sebastian CHIRIMBU, PhDAdvertising Activity and its Importance in Management on theExample OF SME’s Enterprise X .......................................................... 201Professor Jozef NOVAK-MARCINCIN PhDProfessor Vladimir MODRAK PhDBartłomiej OKWIET, PhdsQuality of Products and Services, Factors with Major Impacton Tourism Activity ................................................................................. 209Lecturer Oana-Maria MILEA PhDRomania’s Governmental Public Debt in the Context of the PresentDay Financial Crisis: its Dynamics During the Last Ten Years .......... 214Mariana MANMaria MACRISComparative Analysis of the Salary Revenues in Romaniafor the Period 2005-2009 .......................................................................... 225Lecturer Maria Cristina ŞTEFAN PhDAnalytical and Numerical Models of Sandwich Panel taking intoAccount Wrinkling Phenomenon ........................................................... 238Jolanta BŁASZCZUKZbigniew POZORSKIRevista Română de Statistică – Supliment Trim IV/2012 9

Development Regions in Romania During the EconomicCrisis .......................................................................................................... 245Mihaela SAVUGeorgiana MÎNDRECIAccounting Regulations for Goodwill at a National, Europeanand International Level ........................................................................... 249Raluca Valeria RAŢIU, PhD StudentTheoretical Aspects Concerning the Use of the Markowitz Modelin the Management of Financial Instruments Portfolios ...................... 259Lecturer Mădălina - Gabriela ANGHEL, PhD StudentTourism Infrastructure – a Factor which Influences the Qualityof Tourism Services .................................................................................. 265Lecturer Emilia PASCU, PhDConsiderations of National Accounts Deflators .................................... 270Senior Lecturer Aurelian DIACONU PhDMediation - a Method to Resolve Conflicts WithoutGoing to Justice ........................................................................................ 279Lecturer, PhD, Dragos Marian RADULESCUThe Expat Managers Supremacy against the Local Managers inRomania – Myth or Reality ..................................................................... 285Associate Professor Cezar MILITARU PhDAssistent Professor Adriana ZANFIR PhDAssistent Professor Ana Maria DINU PhDElements for an Interpretation of the Report between Culture andCivilization ................................................................................................ 290Professor Dan CRUCERU PhDDevelopment of Social Insurance Models .............................................. 295Ana (CARP) ANTON PhDSome Aspects regarding the Global and EuropeanStatistical System ...................................................................................... 300Professor Ion PÂRŢACHI PhDOleg CARA PhD StudentAndreea BALTAC PhD StudentPension Calculation Models in European SocialSecurity Systems ....................................................................................... 304Senior Lecturer Virginia CUCU PhDLecturer Florin Paul Costel LILEA PhDAna (CARP) ANTON PhDCătălina Claudia SAVA PhD Student10Revista Română de Statistică – Supliment Trim IV/2012

Considerations Regarding the Proffesional Individuals and LegalEntities According to the New Civil Code ............................................. 314Lecturer Ioana Nely MILITARU PhDIntegrated Approach on Statistics on Short-term in Practice ............. 319Professor Constantin ANGHELACHE PhDProfessor Vergil VOINEAGU PhDProfessor Ion PÂRŢACHI PhDOleg CARA Phd StudentDiana Valentina SOARE PhD StudentModel for Social Insurance with Definite Benefits and Test ofContributions ............................................................................................ 330Professor Liviu BEGU PhDProfessor Radu Titus MARINESCU PhDAna (CARP) ANTON PhDLigia PRODAN PhD StudentMethods for the Correlation and Valuation of Benefits in the SocialSecurity System ........................................................................................ 336Senior Lecturer Virginia CUCU PhDLecturer Florin Paul Costel LILEA PhDOleg CARA PhD StudentValentin BICHIR PhD StudentScientific International Approaches on SocialSecurity Models ........................................................................................ 342Professor Vergil VOINEAGU PhDAna (CARP) ANTON PhDDaniel DUMITRESCU PhD StudentDiana Valentina SOARE PhD StudentPossibilities to Improve the Quality of Accommodation and Eco-Tourism Services throught the Online Softwareof the Housing Units ................................................................................. 354Assistant Alina GHEORGHE PhD StudentRetirement Profile of Future Generations ............................................. 357Ana (CARP) ANTON PhDAnalysis of the Turnover Evolution with the Help of MultipleRegression ................................................................................................. 366Mioara TURCAS, PhD StudentArchitecture of an Inter-organizational Information System forMonitoring the Trace of Fresh Vegetables ............................................ 381Senior Lecturer Ionut ANICA-POPA PhDRevista Română de Statistică – Supliment Trim IV/2012 11

Increase of Budget Incomes by Decreasing the Degreeof Taxation ................................................................................................ 386Senior Lecturer Raluca Andreea MIHALACHE PhDUsing the Regression Model to Estimate Pensions ................................ 391Professor Gheorghe LEPĂDATU PhDLecturer Florin Paul Costel LILEA PhDAna CARP PhDGeorgeta BARDAŞU PhD StudentModeling a Monitor System for Traceability of Sunflower Oil ........... 400Senior Lecturer Ionut ANICA-POPA PhDAlgorithm-based Pension Calculation .................................................... 404Professor Radu Titus MARINESCU PhDSenior Lecturer Alexandru MANOLE PhDAna ANTON CARP PhDGeorgeta BARDAŞU PhD StudentAdaptation of the Statistical System to the Requirementsof Modern Society in European Context ................................................ 408Professor Ion PÂRŢACHI PhDSenior Lecturer Emanuela IONESCU PhDLecturer Florin Paul Costel LILEA PhDOleg CARA PhD StudentSome Approaches on the Social Insurance Modelin Romania ............................................................................................... 415Ana ANTON CARP, PhDIoana Mihaela POCAN PhDCătălina Claudia SAVA PhD StudentLorand KRALIK PhD StudentBreak-even analysis under seasonal activity ......................................... 420Lecturer Adrian ANICA-POPA PhDStudy regarding Primary Obesity in the Case of Children .................. 425Lecturer Antoanela GIOSAN PhD StudentEvolution regarding the Reform of Industry Statisticsin the Republic of Moldavia .................................................................... 430Professor Ion PÂRŢACHI PhDOleg CARA PhD StudentConsultancy Services for SMEs’ Market ............................................... 436Professor Constantin CODERIE PhD12Revista Română de Statistică – Supliment Trim IV/2012

Some Elements regarding the Benefits of the PublicPensions System ........................................................................................ 440Professor Constantin MITRUŢ PhDProfessor Constantin ANGHELACHE PhDAna ANTON CARP PhDAdina Mihaela DINU PhD StudentFundamental Principles and Conduct Rules in Audit .......................... 451Senior Lecturer Dan ŢOGOE PhDSome Aspects regarding Protocol and Ceremonial in InternationalNegotiations .............................................................................................. 455Lecturer Dragoş Gabriel MECU PhDRevista Română de Statistică – Supliment Trim IV/2012 13

14Revista Română de Statistică – Supliment Trim IV/2012

Mathematic Models Applied in the RiskManagementProfessor Gabriela-Victoria ANGHELACHE, PhDgabriela.anghelache@gmail.comProfessor Viorel LEFTER, PhDAndreea NEGRU (CIOBANU), PhD StudentLorand KRALIK, PhD Studentlorand17@gmail.comAcademy of Economic Studies, BucharestAbstractThe techniques of statistical analysis have been for long either unknown orachieved in an approximate manner. The coming out of the risk concept is identified withthe coming into being of the probabilities theories (the mathematic theory of probabilities).For the analysis developed in this work, we shall see that the yields (thepercentage or logarithmic modifications of the assets price) are considered in the riskmanagement as being stochastic variables. The distribution of these yields is studied byboth academicians and market operators. More distributions have been identified as beingpossible distributions starting with the normal distribution (or logo normal used by BlackScholes and Merton). There is no demonstration of the fact that the yields distribution is notto be found, which keeps on leaving place to further developments of more and morecomplex functions of distribution.Key words: risk analysis, mathematic models, capital market, value, yieldsJEL Classification: G321. Introductory notionsThe event took place in the year 1664 in France, when the mathematician BlaisePascal had undertaken to solve a problem linked to gambling, “the problem of the partialoutcomes” - dividing the money between the gamblers inn case that, from one or anotherreason, the game must be interrupted before being finished, the participants having partialoutcomes only. Pascal and Pierre de Fermat have deepened the mathematical analysis of thegambles, which led to the consecration of a new branch of mathematics. After 1654, in lessthan 50 years, the classical instruments for measuring the risk came out. The first one wasthe statistical sample, an application of the probabilities covering a vast range of issues –from those of juridical nature up to mechanics problems. This method has graduallyinvolved new developments of the insurances sector, such as the one covering the lifeexpectation.The observations concerning the fluctuation of the characteristics of variousbreeds, accomplished by Charles Darwin in „The species origin" , drew up the attention onthe fact that the mean and the dispersion (standard deviation) constitute specific qualitiesfor every species. The result of transposing these data in form of graphs depending on thefrequency of occurrence (a graph having on the ordinate the height of some individuals,and the occurrence frequency on the abscise) has been named distribution or repartition. ToRevista Română de Statistică – Supliment Trim IV/2012 15

the extent that more data accumulated, from many different domains, an interestingobservation arouse – the distribution took the same forme of a bell curve irrespectively thenature of the data. In recognition of its significance, it was called normal distribution(repartition). The most interesting discovery as regards the normal distribution is the factthat the nature itself contains something aleatory which can be characterized by thisrepartition. For the mathematicians this fact became a very important instrument – thenormal distribution explains what is aleatory in nature and can be described by twomeasures only – the mean and the dispertion.The normal distribution has the property of being asymmetrical as against themean, while the dispersion measures the width of the central curve of the bell. Beyond thiscentral curve the normal distribution is extending and tends towards zero.Another feature of interest for the subsequent theoretical developments of thework consists of the fact that, in the case there is a number big enough of the doneobservations, all these observations being aleatory variables, independent two by two andhaving the same repartition and non-null dispersions, then the final repartition of all theseobservations tends to the normal one. This property is known as the Central Limit Theorem.The search of the general conditions so that the repartition of a sum of aleatoryindependent variables tends towards a normal repartition by increasing the terms number,led to the development of another direction in the theory of the limit theorems for sums ofaleatory independent variables, very closely connected with the stochastic processes. Theproblems to face in this respect were of the following kind: what repartitions besides thenormal one may be linear repartitions of certain sums of aleatory variables? The conclusionbeing reached is that only the normal repartition is a repartition limit 1.For the analysis developed in this work, we shall see that the yields (thepercentage or logarithmic modifications of the assets price) are considered in the riskmanagement as being stochastic variables. The distribution of these yields is studied byboth academicians and market operators. More distributions have been identified as beingpossible distributions starting with the normal distribution (or logo normal used by BlackScholes and Merton). There is no demonstration of the fact that the yields distribution is notto be found, which keeps on leaving place to further developments of more and morecomplex functions of distribution.2. Utility and the principle of the decreasing marginal utilityThe hypothesis of the expected utility is a result of the solution given by DanielBernoulli in 1738 to the famous paradox St. Petersburg enounced in 1713 by NicholasBernoulli.The development is grounded by the principle of the representation of theconsumption plans from the perspective of the expected utility (expected value - E(v)), asaverage of the possible values as a result of the choice of an action direction, weighted withthe probabilities of coming out of these values25 and is considered a good evaluation of theaverage gains (or losses) which we can record within a long series of experiences 1.Bernoulli proposed the following game (St. Petersburg): B (the player) throws acoin; A ("the bank") agrees to pay to B 2 ducats if B hits the escutcheon from the first1 Let’s assume that within a game, we are throwing a coin and receive a prize of 10.000 lei if theescutcheon comes out – the probaility being, of course, 14– but we gain nothing if the themark comes out - the probability being, also, '4. The mathematical expectation will beE(v) = Vix 10.000 + Vix 0 ^ 5.000;16Revista Română de Statistică – Supliment Trim IV/2012

throwing. If B hits the escutcheon for the first time with the second throwing, A pays him22 ducats and so on, the bank doubling the steak as many times hitting the escutcheon isdelayed by another throwing. If B hits the escutcheon for the first time by the n-ththrowing, he gains 2n ducats. The paradox is that the amount that can be gained is infinite.The mathematic expectation of B can explain this thing. The probability that the escutcheonappears after the first throwing is of VS. The probability that the mark appears from thefirst throwing and the head appears by the second throwing will be 14.14. The probabilityof the coming out of the mark within the first n-1 throwing and of the escutcheon by the n-th throwing will be (14) nl x 14 = l/2n. The gain, if the coming out of the escutcheoncoming out is delayed up to the n-th throwing counts for 2n ducats. The mathematicalexpectation of B will be:E(w) = (l/2)-2 + (1/4) 22 + (1/8) 23 + ... + (1/ 2n)-2n +..., this sum continuing tothe infinite. By doing the multiplications, we shall see that the mathematical expectation ofB is infinite: 1 + 1+1 + 1+ ... + = ∞.The conclusion is that doesn’t matter how much would B offer to A in order to lethim play, A may consider that it is not enough. However, while the expected gain isinfinite, we cannot presume, at least intuitively, that somebody will want to pay an infiniteamount in order to enter this game. The solution of Daniel Bernoulli was based on twoideas that have been considered as important by the economists of the XX century.First of all, he maintains that the value which a person gives to a risky asset is notthe same with the expected gain of this one but, merely, with the expected utility of it – theimportance given presently by a certain person for obtaining the respective amount. On theother hand, Bernoulli maintains that the utility that people grant to a gain , u(v), is notlinearly dependent on the gain (v), but increases with a rate which gets reduced – theprinciple of the decreasing marginal utility (by adding a dollar to a fortune of 5 dollars maymean a significant increase but means lesser and lesser to the extent the wealth is larger.Bernoulli suspected that the expected utility of the game St. Petersburg is finite if theutilities decrease to the extent the amount increases. Consequently, it will desirable to pay afinite amount of money in order to enter this game, even if the expected gain is infinite.Von Neumann and Morgenstern take over this idea in order to build up a system ofcalculation of the equilibrium under the conditions when people are adverse to risk. Theprinciple of the decreasing marginal utility is one of the pillars of the theory of the assetsevaluation under conditions of uncertainty. A significant element for the risk analysis is thetendency to the mean, discovered by Francis Galton. The regression at mean expresses thefact that,, on long term basis, all the individuals tend towards an average value – in time,the extremes tend to approach the mean. The experiences achieved by Galton by the end ofthe XlX century have demonstrate the existence of this phenomenon in the heredity domainand set up this truth as being generally valid as universal statistical rule. Those who studiedthe outcomes obtained by Galton have noticed the general applicability in many domains,mainly in meteorology, the equities market, the accidents frequency and the economiccycles΄ domain.For our analysis, this discovery is important from the angle of the statisticalestimations of the coefficients of causality΄ relations or of connection between two aleatoryvariables. The identification in probabilistic terms of the parameters of an equation showingus the relation between two or more aleatory variables has been called regression in order toreflect the regression phenomenon submitted above.Revista Română de Statistică – Supliment Trim IV/2012 17

3. A model of the risk managementTo put in practice the relevant theories meant to obtain a measurement unit of therisk requires the construction of mathematical models and their testing in order to establishthe best methods or principles that may apply. We shall analyze further on, the significanceand the main arguments regarding the utilization of a mathematical model and, afterwards,we shall approach the most frequently used methods in order to create models.A mathematical model is a simplified mathematical representation of a system,process or theory of the real world with the purpose to understand, anticipate or evencontrol their behavior. Jan Tinbergen alleged in 1969, in a speech in the memory of AlfredNobel, that „the essential features of a model are:- drawing up a list of the variables that have to be analyzed;- drawing up a list of the equations or relations which the variables have toobserve;- verifying the validity of the equations, which implies the estimation fortheir coefficients, if they do exist.'''It might be of interest to remind that the first laureates have been Ragnar Frischand Jan Tinbefgen whose efforts in the development of the econometrics had been thusrecognized. The utilization of the mathematical instruments with the purpose of analyzingthe economic processes led to the creation of a number of econometric models thatborrowed concepts from mechanics. Frisch referred to the Econometrics Society that cameout as a result of the consolidation of communities of economists- mathematicians and thatwas supposed to gain more and more terrain during the coming years. These propensitiestowards models with mechanical character, borrowed from physics, have been frequentlyfought with. Friedrich von Hayek, in 1974, was of the opinion that „this incapacity of theeconomists to direct with better results the economic policy is tightly linked to theirpropensity to imitate as faithfully as possible the proceedings so successfully utilized by thephysics sciences – which, in our domain, can lead to nothing else but to erroneousconclusions. This “scientist” attitude is completely not scientific, in the proper sense of theword, because it presumes a mechanical and non-criticizing application of certain thinkingpatterns to domains which differ from those within which they came to birth”.However, Paul Samuelson, in his work Economic Theory and Mathematics - anappraisal, published in American Economic Review in 1952, is of the opinion that„mathematics is the language". From all the great theoreticians in economics, a percentagehigh enough were acquainted with at least a small training in mathematics. Samuelson is ofthe opinion that „mathematics is not, however, a condition, neither necessary, nor sufficientfor a successful career as theoretician in economics. It can be an instrument, a helpingsupport”. A model for the risk measurement is aiming to find out a relation that allows acertain drawing of the future fluctuations of the portfolio value. Most of the times this canbe obtained by the achievement of certain predictions regarding the changes taking place atthe level of the price for each instrument composing the analyzed portfolio, based on thehistory of these instruments prices only. This entire construction implies the modeling oftwo components: the temporally dynamics of the yields, namely the modeling of theevolution in time of these yields; and the yields distribution at a certain moment.A category of models utilized on a large extent is represented by the models thatdescribe the evolution of the assets value according to the hypothesis of the “random walk”– starting from the premise that the yields follow a stochastic process.4. The necessity of the risk managementStrictly academically, the companies seem to pay an interest somehow curious forthe risk administration and management. The classical theory of the portfolio is of the18Revista Română de Statistică – Supliment Trim IV/2012

opinion that the economic agents, in their position as investors, can eliminate their specificrisk for the financial assets, this being achievable through the diversification process. Thisis the reason for the act that the exposure to the specific risk will be not rewarded by themarket. The investing agents are forming their portfolios composed by the risk-free assetalong with a mix of risky assets, while the weights relating to the two categories of equitiesare set up depending on the investors΄ aversion to risk. According to Modigliani – Millertheorem (which is also known as the theorem of the irrelevance of the capital structure),the value of a company is independent of the risk structure. Thus, the companies shouldmaximize the expected profits, irrespectively the risk they are exposed to, taking intoaccount the fact that the shareholders might eliminate the risk by diversification.Nevertheless, the economists Modigliani and Miller showed the reasons that are notallowing this theory to be validated in practice. The risk management acquired a significantimportance this being due to the imperfections of the capital market, such as the taxes andthe bankruptcy costs.• The bankruptcy costs. The present market value of a company will be diminishedby the costs concerning the reorganizing process or, in most severe circumstances, by theactivity cease. This is a reason for risk management may increase the value of the companyby means of reducing the bankruptcy probability.• The taxes. Numerous systems of taxation contain various modalities of carryingforward the taxation advantages for the past losses if, ceteris paribus, the diminishing of thevolatility of the future gains will lead to the decrease of the up-dated value for all the futurepayments and will generate the increase of the company΄ s value.• The capital structure and cost. One of the biggest sources of bankruptcy is givenby the incapacity of the companies to honor its debts. Therefore, to the extent the degree ofrunning into debt of a company is higher, its risk will be higher. The appropriatemanagement of the risk can maintain a high level of running into debt rates allowing thus amore aggressive extension of the company, as much as this financing source is notexpensive.• Compensation packages by the participation to capital. By participating to theactivity of the company, its employees have themselves an implicit exposure to the risksthat the company they work for is facing. This is why the compensations the present andthe future employees of the company are asking for are directly proportional with thecompany’s risk and they keep on increasing as the risks increase.References[1]. Anghelache, G.V., (2004) – „Piaţa de capital. Caracteristici.Evoluţii.Tranziţii”,Editura Economică[2]. Lintner, J. (1965) – „The valuation of risk assets and the selection of risky investmentsin stock portofolios and capital budgets”, Review of Economics and Statistics 47, 13-27.[3]. Mossin, J. (1966) – „Equilibrium in a Capital Asset Market”, Econometrica Vol. 34,No. 4, 768-783.[4]. Singer, B.D., Terhaar, K.(1997) – “Economic Foundations of Capital Market Returns”Research Foundation of The Insitute of Chrtered Financial Analysts)[5]. Sharpe, W. (1964) – „Capital asset prices: A theory of market equilibrium underconditions of risk”, Journal of Finance 19, 425-442.[6]. Treynor, J. (1962)- „Toward a Theory of Market Value of Risky Assets”, Unpublishedmanuscris.Revista Română de Statistică – Supliment Trim IV/2012 19

Using Time Series in the Macroeconomic AnalysisProfessor Constantin ANGHELACHE PhDactincon@yahoo.comAcademy of Economic Studies/“Artifex” University of BucharestProfessor Radu Titus MARINESCU, PhDradu_titus_marinescu@yahoo.comSenior Lecturer Elena BUGUDUI, PhDbugudui@yahoo.com“Artifex” University of BucharestDaniel DUMITRESCU PhD Studentdianadumi@gmail.comAcademy of Economic Studies, BucharestAbstractThe macroeconomic indices analyse shall be studied on goinging development inorder to know the manner of actual transformation of these during each particularstage.For an actual analyse of phenomena development over time, it use as studyinstrument the statistical adjustment series, the purpose of ascertaining them in last periodand, by extrapolation to predict future developments.Key words: variability, dinamic series, interdependence, relative indicator,growth rateJEL Classification: C22Some general aspectsThe chronological series composed of two rows of parallel data, the first rowsshow variation of the time periods variation and the second rows show the variation of thephenomenon or characteristics studied over time. The chronological series has thefollowing features: variability, homogenity, interdependence to its terms. The variability isbecause each term is obtained by centralizing of individual data different as level ofdevelopment. These individual data exist because, that in social phenomena acts besides theessential causes, determinants causes, and a sufficient number of nonessential causes.When analyzing time series, we have to take into account the fact that they are prepared forthe complex units. For them, the degree of variation of indicators includes structuralvariations from one time unit to another.Interdependent of terms: the indicators are successive values of the somephenomena recorded in the some teritorial or administrative units. In time series need toknow the trend curve specific to each stage of development, and statistical expressing is theaction of the low even causing them. Because of the interdependence among terms, in thecase of chronological series it’s necesary to know the trend line (curve) which is specifiqueto each development stage and which expresses statistical and in quantitative manner theaction of law that determine them. Taking into account all these particularities, thestatistical analysis of chronological series shall be based on a system of indicators thatcharacterize many quantitative relations of the inside of series and at the period to whichdata is referring.20Revista Română de Statistică – Supliment Trim IV/2012

How to analyze the dinamic series of streamsFollowing the processing of time series are obtained absolute, relative and averageindicators which together will characterize from statistical point of view the development ofphenomena studied by the interpretation of the objective trend of them development in eachstage.The absolute indicators, that characterize a time series, are:y i –absolute levels of terms of series;Δ i/0 -absolute change(increas or decreas ),calculated with fixed base;– absolute change(increas or decreas) calculated with the base chained.Δ i/i-1I iI i/i-1R i/0R i/i-1A i/0A i/i-1The relative indicators, that characterize a time series, are:– dynamic index calculated with fixed base;– dynamic index calculated with the base chined;– rate of increas (decreas) calculated with fixed base;– dynamic index calculated with the base chined;– absolute value of a procentage of increas (decrease) with fixed base;– absolute value of a procentage of increas (decrease) with fixed base wichthe base chinde.Average indicators are:y – the average level of the time series; – the average level of the absolute change(increas or decreas),I – the average index of dinamics/ indicele mediu al dinamicii;R – the average rate growts rate/ritmul mediu de creştere.Methodology of calculating the time series indicators is elaborated on the exempleof time series interval:y i = f(t i ),where:y i = the values of the studied variable ;t i = the numerical values of the studied variable.The absolute indicators of the time series are expressed in the units ofmeasurement of the phenomenon under study. If we note with t the time variable and with ythe studied variable, series will take the following values : from y 0 / y 1 (initial period) to y n(last term of the series):For the variable „y” the specialized literature uses the following notations:y 1 , y 2 ... y i ... y n , i 1nor:y 1 , y 2 ... y t ... y T , t 1, T .In this paper we uses :y 0 , y 1 ... y i ... y n , i 0n .In this case, the series is comprised by n+1 terms.Revista Română de Statistică – Supliment Trim IV/2012 21

The first absolute indicator is the indicator of series volume, whith can becalculated only for the interval series because its terms are summed.Absolute increase (or decrease) is calculated from the level of a single periodconsidered as base of reference or from a period of time to another. In the first case, weobtain absolute increase (or decrease) calculated with fixed base, in the second case weobtain absolute increase (or decrease) calculated with the chained base known as absoluteincrease (or decrease) with variable base 1 .Absolute change with fixed base is noted Δ i/0 and obtain as difference betweeneach level of period y i and the level of reference period y 0 :Δ i/0 = y i – y 0.In the time series with y i terms ( i 0 n ) we obtain n absolute increase.Between absolute increase with fixed base and absolute increase with variablebase it is the following relation:ni1 ,i / i1n / 0That is:(y 1 – y 0 ) + (y 2 – y 1 ) + ... + (y n – y n-1 ) = y n – y 0 .Using this relation we can calculate:Δ i/0 – Δ i-1/0 = Δ i/i-1(y i – y 0 ) – (y i-1 – y 0 ) = y i – y i-1 ,Absolute increase may also take the negative values, frequently using theexpressions „zero growth” and „ negative growth”.The relative indicators of the time series are very important for analyzing thedynamic of the socio-economic phenomena.These indicatos are used frequently to determine the proportions and corellationsbetween the various branches and sectors of the national economyRelative size showinghow many times a phenomenon over time has changed is called dynamic index and it canbe calculated with fixed base and variable base.Dynamic index with fixed base, is denoted I i/0 and calculated by the followingformula, expresed in percentage:I yyii / 00100,Dynamic index with variable base (I i/i-1 ) is calculeted :Ii / iyyii1100,1 Biji, M., Biji, E.M., Lilea, E., Anghelache, C. – „Tratat de statistică”, Editura Economică, Bucureşti,200222Revista Română de Statistică – Supliment Trim IV/2012

Ri / i1yi yiyi11yiyi1yyi1i1yiyi1 1,So:R i/i-1 = I i/i-1 – 1If we use procentages:R i/i-1 = (I i/i-1 ·100) – 100.Transition from the growth rate with fixed base to the growth rate with variablebase to be made only after it transforms into dynamic indices:I i/0 = (R i/0 + 1) · 100andI i/i-1 = (R i/i-1 + 1) · 100,Because multypling the growth rate with variabl base is denote as equaly with thegrowth rate with fixed base for the entire period:n R Ri1i / i 1 n / 0 .Using relations by moving from a base to another and from indices to rhythms canlead to restoration of indicators that not known:Calculation of indices with variable base :Ii/i-1(%) = Ri/i-1 (%) + 100Calculation of indeces with fixed base:n I Ii1i / i1 n / 0For the interpretation of annual growth rates should consider the followingconcerns:One aspect is referred to the indices with the fixed base, can be compared betweenthem because of the same denominator, but indices with the variable base can not becompared directly,because they have different bases.The absolute value of the procentage of growth rate with fixed base, expresseshow many units of growth recorded a year back every percentage of growth, it is the entireperiod, because leval that was considered is equal to 100% corresponding the base year(y 0 ).A i / 0 yiy0yi / 0 0R % yi yi / 00 100100y0The absolute value of the procentage of growth rate with variabl base is notedwith A i/i-1 :AOr:i / i1i/( Ri / i1i1;)10024Revista Română de Statistică – Supliment Trim IV/2012

AAi / i1i/ iR1i / ii / i1yi1;1001%yiyi1yi1yi yi1 100100yi1This indicator make the conection between absolute indicators and relativeindicators helping their correct interpretation.Calculation of absolute and relative indicators conduct to the characterization ofindividual relationships between the terms of a series, taken by two .These indicators shows the variability of the terms of a time series as a result ofthe influence of all causes and conditions that determine the evolution of this phenomenon .When analyzing dynamics of phenomena can calculate the average level andaverage rate.The average of the time series.If we represent on an axis the terms of a chronological series of intervals, they willappear as:y 0 y 1 y 2 y 3 . . .The average of the time series of interval be calculed using simple arithmeticaverage :ni0yiy .n 1If the terms of the time series is denoted by y i , ( i 1,n), then, the average of thetime series is:ni1yiy nand Average annule absolute changes is:ni/ i1i2n / 1 .n 1 n 1Likewise,ni1i / i1 ,nRevista Română de Statistică – Supliment Trim IV/2012 25

where:n = the number of absolute increase with variable base, that is the number of termsless one.Average annual absolute changes/ increase is depends on the difference betweenthe first and last term, because, based on the relation that exists between absolute changeswith fixed base and variable base, the amount of absolute changes with fixed and variablebase is equal with absolute change for entire period:ni/ i1i1n / 0 ,nn(1) ( 2 )whwnce:yn y0 ,nIt follows that in this case, we can use two formulas for calculating the averageannual absolute change.If in the inside of the same series can be found opposite trends, that on the graph,corresponding to a change in the form of a second degree parabola with a maximum orminimum point, then the series should be divided into two parts, calculating the respectiveaverage indicators.If, y i , , then we have: i 1, nni2i / i1n 1n / 1n 1Average growth index looks how many times increase the average of thephenomenon level studied during a year.I 1/0 · I 2/1 · I 3/2 · I 4/3 , ... I n/n-1 = I n/0 ;I I I I I n / 0,so:I1 / 0 I 2 / 1 I 3 / 2 I 4 / 3 In / n1 II I I .de n oriI being a constant size, the product of the second member of equal may benreplaced by its value raised to a power equal with the number of terms ( I ).nI 1/0 · I 2/1 · I 3/2 · I 4/3 , ... I n/n-1 = IOr:n Ii / i1 Ii1n,26Revista Română de Statistică – Supliment Trim IV/2012

so:nI n I i / i1i1 .It is important that index(sg)/indices(pl.) be taken as coefficients and not aspercentages.We see that using the geometric average formula :x g = average index;x i = indices for average.The product of the indices with variable base is equal with the index with fixedbase for the entire period:Inni1Inni / i 1 I n / 0 n .y0(1) (2)They are used depending on the available data.For the time series denoted from 1 to n we have:yInn n1 I i / i1 n1.i2y1(1) (2)yIf we have more succesive subperiods, general average index can be calculated asthe weighted geometric mean of average growth indices.where: nii 1 n1n2n3I I I I knk1 2 3IkI = general average index;I = partiall average index ;n i = variable-based index number of each subperiod ;k = number of subperiods – number of partiall averag index.The average growth rata shows how much this phenomenon has increased in sizerelative,in the analyzed period, on average from one unit to another of interval.The average growth rata is calculated as the difference between dynamicenvironment index, expressed as a percentage.R ( I 100 ) 100;In conluzion, the indicators obtained by processing a chronological time series canbe organized in a sistem, where each indicator may emphasize one aspect of thedevelopment of the phenomena studied.The veracity of these indicators is determined by the manner in which the timeseries, by the significance of the period chosen for the evolution of the phenomenonRevista Română de Statistică – Supliment Trim IV/2012 27

studied, by the homogeneity of empirical data used and the length of the time series. Thenumber of terms must be large enough to satisfy the law of large numbers, they interpretstatistical regularities evolutionary phenomena.When working with heterogenues time series, with various development trends itis necessary to calculate these indicators on each step as partial indicators, or indicatorsobtained from processing is not real and practical and theoretical conclusions have notmade proper basis and can not be calculations used for forecast.References[1]. Anghelache, C., (2008) - „Tratat de statistică teoretică şi economică”, EdituraEconomică, Bucureşti[2]. Anghelache, C. – “Theoreticol and economic Statistics- Theory and Applications”,Economic Pubilshing, Bucharest 2004„/Statistică teoretică şi economică, teorie şiaplicaţii”, Editura Economică, Bucureşti, 2004[3]. Box, G.E.P., Jerks, G.M. – „Time Series Analysis, Forecasting and Control”,Holdenday, San Francisco, 1970[4]. Bry, G., Cyclical, C. (1971) – „Analysis of Time Series”, Columbia University Press,New York[5]. Biji, M., Biji, E.M., Lilea, E., Anghelache, C. – “Statistical treaty”/„Tratat destatistică”, Economic Publishing, Bucharest, 2002[6]. Isaic-Maniu, Al. – „Statistics”, Publishing University, Bucharest, 200628Revista Română de Statistică – Supliment Trim IV/2012

Change Management and Processes of SmallCompaniesProfessor Mircea UDRESCU, PhDudrescumircea@yahoo.com“Artifex” University of BucharestAbstractChange for the better is one of the sustainable features of the modernorganization. Therefore, change management expresses the excellence of skills, abilitiesand skills that can demonstrate a manager. The efficient management of change,organizations thrive and managers who consistently fail to manage change successfully isamong managers. Change can occur accidentally or consciously, can generate untolddrama or binding process can be full of confidence. Vision and passion, managementopportunities, management motivation and providing competitive products and servicesthan the competition are just some of the processes that support change management insmall firms. These elements are more obvious management in small firms than in largefirms because no hierarchical levels makes the reaction speed in small firms is much higherthan in large firms. In the small firms, the change is an everyday component amanifestation of rapid response, primarily related to leadership, while big companies keepchanging organizational structures, which means often a delayed reaction andcumbersome. Therefore, the change in small firms is a competitive advantage that mustalways be maintained.Key words: management, change, marketing, competitive advantage,organization, motivation, firms, efficient, paradigm.JEL Classification: M101.Management and change daily.General management teaches us to use theories, systems, methods and practices ofmanagement of resources so that it can ensure the stability of an organization, in terms ofcompetitiveness. But the stability of an organization requires daily and long termmanagement of tens, hundreds and thousands of changes that occur in the organization'sfunctions, as well as a whole. Practical everyday by managing change within theorganization, expresses the quality management gives brightness stability and continuityorganizational entity. Every time spatial stability of a company is changed. Constantlychanging composition of production factors, internal cultural environment changes, changethe external environment of the organization. Organizations are continually changing. Somebecome more efficient, others are in a precarious balance, while others are already talkingabout the past tense. Change for the better is one of the sustainable features of the modernorganization. Therefore, change management expresses the excellence of skills, abilitiesand skills that can demonstrate a manager. The efficient management of change,organizations thrive and managers who consistently fail to manage change successfully isamong managers. Change can occur accidentally or consciously, can generate untold dramaor binding process can be full of confidence. As a subject, change management requiresRevista Română de Statistică – Supliment Trim IV/2012 29

mastery of scientific instruments planned routing resources for high performance validatedby the market. Change management is the management aware of the transition from acurrent state to a desired future state. The organization is in the process of change can be, ifnecessary, a public company, a private company, a school, a philanthropic organization, asport organization etc. Thus, change can become a conscious process directed primarilytowards effectiveness and efficiency essentially any change management. Undoubtedly, theforms of change management takes distinct features large firms compared to small ones.Although the essence is the same - change directed toward a predetermined goal, themanagement process varies from case to case, depending on time, speed, the amount ofresources involved, the magnitude of effects etc.2. General paradigm change.In the last years of increasingly obsessive, current vocabulary has been enrichedby the term "paradigm". Beyond its dictionary meaning, the paradigm is perceived as alinguistic construct current, suggesting a theory, a model, a supposition or a frame ofreference in which an individual or group of individuals perceive, understand and interpretthe surrounding environment. Is how individuals and social groups think about thephenomena is occurring or that part. Often paradigm is similar to a map 1 . If the map isaccurate, one who uses it is certain that not astray. Thus, paradigms are the beliefs andconvictions of individuals and social groups that the phenomena of nature and society havesome explanation or may be conducted according to certain rules. Are faith and belief bywhich individuals and groups of individuals acting in order to get the basic needs forcultivation of friends, families foundation for security defense, promote social order tocultivate a reputation etc. But these beliefs, these maps, as a result of certain experiences,may be consistent with reality or not. Every being enters into life, leading to after a lot ofmaps, beliefs and convictions. In essence, people are very attached to beliefs andconvictions that make them maintain that things and phenomena must occur in a certainway. Thus liberates the belief that how you see things is exactly how they should beconducted. As such, optical adopted the faith and belief of each cause and how to act.Consequently, gains show that our paradigms, correct or incorrect, underlie our behavior,ultimately based on social networking. The maps, faiths, beliefs, our maps are consistentwith the principles and laws of reality, the more they are suitable for man, with strongimpact on social efficiency. There are individual paradigms, paradigms and paradigmgeneral groups. All processes are subject to review, but not equally. The accumulation ofinformation does not necessarily lead to change beliefs, but there are frequent cases inwhich truths believed until a certain point is questioned. Paradigm shift is the result of aninnovative process in which fundamental beliefs are refuted and others take their place new.Given that globalization becomes a more inclusive process, people managers andemployees world, social bodies in general become aware of information that erodes andchanges the paradigm until recently considered unbreakable. Out of these, consider some tobe out of date, as follows:a Firm's competitive arena: Hundreds decades, organizations have been operatingin a competitive environment, fighting each each for a larger share of market, customerloyalty, resources subsidized by various government bodies etc. Company A Company Bfights, companies A and B struggled with company C and so on., That winners and loserscould be considered a drama actors endless. Competitive struggle has now reversed.Organizations are struggling primarily with themselves. In today's race, winners are1 Stephen R. Covey, 7-speed efficiency, ALL Publishing House, Bucharest, 1989,p. 6-2830Revista Română de Statistică – Supliment Trim IV/2012

companies that are adapting, are innovative, are assessed by creating superior value, are runby managers concerned with innovation and lifelong learning. The success of thesecompanies comes from processes rather innovative and original retelling than the repetitionof operations already tried but judged to be already tired, outdated. Repeating the sameconditions is confirmation of what is known, entrepreneurial focus on the past, which cancreate image old, outdated, old-fashioned etc. It confirms the citations of famous managersof American companies, then renowned marketing expert Philip Kotler, has developedyears ago many of his ideas on the increasing role of marketing as a managerial philosophyand process, as follows: " Change or die. "," The rate of change is so great that the ability tochange became competitive advantage and the ability to change requires learning capacity."," Companies can not ensure the security of your job, only buyer can " and so on 2 .b. Nature of request. Management of any business is the starting point forestimating demand. And demand has evolved from the character table and to requestpersonalized small group. Consumers want products not standardized table but customizedproducts and services specifically designed for them. To present a personalized offer,companies must constantly adapt to be able to respond without delay. As such,organizations must be highly motivated to change, because "Customers retire if they hearabout politics" our methods "," can not be so "or any customization resistance. Anorganization can afford to sacrifice a client in favor of corporate internal order because theprice increases customer acquisition and currently directs customers economic performanceof an organization. All these require the concept of "organization trained" ... ability to learnfaster than your competitors may be the only competitive advantage that will help youmake money ... trained organizations on creativity, not control. They go beyond oldfashionedcorporations by cultivating an environment that allows risk-taking. In the war fortalent, they look modern methods of recruiting and retaining the best employees 3 . Trainingis now seen as one of the ways to persuade employees to remain with the company .. "Theability to create customized products and services started to become everyday speech offirms. For example: "Vendors from Levi's can take accurate measures of a person to createthe right pair of jeans and to deliver in two days, $ 15 more than the normal price. Buyercan order and another time trousers, without the need to go to the store. "Or" NationalBicycle Industrial Company of Japan manufactures bicycles individualized, depending onbuyer preference and anatomy. Their factory can produce up to 11,231,862 of variation of18 models of bicycles, in 199 color variations. " 4c Processes purchase decision. The whole theory and practice of business hasgrown based on the following beliefs 5 : consumers think and act mainly in a reasoned,rational and linear, consumers can easily explain the thinking and behavior, the mind, thebrain and the body, as culture is lives can be properly studied with notable results,independently of each other, as independent modules, memory consumers is a truerepresentation of their experiences, consumers formulate their thoughts in words,consumers are inoculated posts companies and they interpret these messages as intendingentrepreneurs and marketers. As such, there are many managers who believe that peoplemake rational decisions in the purchase, that most thought processes take place in theconscious cognitive process that can divide accurately and understand consumer behaviordistinct elements: mind, brain, body , society, culture and so on, that what a consumer says2 Philip Kotler, Kotler on Marketing, Publishing Brandbuilders, Bucureşzi, 20033 Chip R. Bell, managers and mentors, Old Court Publishing House, Bucharest, 2010, p.21-224 Philip Kotler, Kotler on Marketing, Publishing Brandbuilders, Bucureşzi, 2003, p.1615 Gerald Zaltman, How consumers think, Polirom, Bucharest, 2007, p.29-124Revista Română de Statistică – Supliment Trim IV/2012 31

that he remembers is a given fixed once and for all consumers thoughts are formed andexists only in words, that marketing specialists can inculcate in the minds of its consumersdesired message about the company, the brand and its product, making them react asdesired vendor. New paradigm regarding consumer thinking and behavior is based on thefollowing findings: brain, body, mind and society form a whole culture and biology andreason go hand in hand market arises from the interaction of conscious and unconsciousconsumers and managers. Such an approach brings news about the bewildering nature ofcommunication, thinking, emotions, memories and everyday human behavior such as:thinking is based on pictures, not words, most of the communication is done nonverbally,metaphor is essential for deciphering thought, because it is the engine of imagination,emotions and thought coexist in an integrated partnership, most thought processes,emotional and learning occur unconsciously, managerial mental models gain importancesince they are socially shared, memory has power fragile and relative. New beliefs aboutconsumer decision process is based on the following beliefs: most thoughts and feelingsthat influence consumer behavior and managers are held in the unconscious, deep analysisrequires understanding consumer thinking mental activity; consumers live their lives in acompartmentalized manner, as organized universities and companies; reason, as perceived,there is no brain, body and society; rationale Manager (with its conscious and unconsciouselements) and the consumer (with its elements conscious and unconscious) interacts dialing"reason MARKET", a partnership between emotion and reason, Joseph Turner explained asfollows: "To choose among several options, we need a way of assessing the relative valueof these options, and the ability their assessment related to emotions: Emotions give eachoption a value, therefore, provides a benchmark that can be considered as options, sochoosing can be achieved. This process is not necessarily conscious, in fact, rarely happensto be so in all animals, including the man. So being rational means being emotionally, if wetry to draw a line to separate emotion cognition, cognition neuroscience is that we do notunderstand. Cognitive states occurring beyond working memory can not be sustainedwithout attaching emotions. " 6d. Education and training. Learning to depart from traditional patterns, which heldthat is learned once and for all, from youth to old age etc. the belief that it is continuing, asproducts and services common requirement, it tends to become personalized. 7 Essentialeducational relationship is more mutual search integrated processes than knowledgesharing. Being a two-way search, training becomes more effective when the mentor focuseson build, build, create, on knowing what to do and to do, than to ascertain the level ofknowledge, control knowledge involvement. Therefore, the future of the industry is built onthe belief that "performance magic training may be one person. There is a one-waytransaction, such as master-novice. To be sustainable and effective, must have a two-wayrelationship - the synchronized efforts of two people. Which gives similar quality dancetraining is synchronization and synergy. They also provide magic of this process. "Inessence, the main purpose of education is to turn the student himself, who, benefiting froman educational partnership, can be used with confidence its only tool at hand wheneverneeded : discovery, innovation, creativity. In such a context, a self recognizes the dignityand joy that throughout life, teaching has been a wellspring offered by many people inmany places and in many situational circumstances. The best mentors recognize that, in aneducational process, a process of introspection and discovery, they facilitate processes that6 Joseph Turner, On the Origins of Human Emottion: A Sociological Inquiry into the Evolution OfHuman Affect, Stanford University Press, Stanford, California, 2000., p.597 Chip R. Bell, managers and mentors, Old Court Publishing House, Bucharest, 2010, p.2732Revista Română de Statistică – Supliment Trim IV/2012

are more catalysts. They know that education no longer refer to comments smartspeculative at elevated cited, but are able to use to clear communication, which illuminatesthe steps by which the learner is moving towards perfection, not separate ways but together.Mentors learn together with those we train. They become happy when those who enter intoa learning stage in life fly away, confident and satisfied. Therefore, the mentors aretransformed into true leaders as "the new leader is the one who persuades people to act,which transforms them into leaders and followers who can make the leaders changeagents" 8 e.Management's space, time and speed or logsticii management. Starting from thefundamental content of marketing logistics, insurance physical movement of products fromproducer to end user with the lowest distribution costs incurred by the increasing number ofbusiness management professionals have switched to using the phrase LOGISTICSindustries to designate optimal sizing of material flows and related operations, ie technicaland material to restrain distance, speed and time. In this new methodological overallconsidering the optimal decision control and investigating the physical - the storage,sorting, handling, transport, etc.. This new approach has to change logistics concept thatmarketing operations related to logistics - warehousing, sorting, handling, transport, etc..would help increase product value with a new one with a new one, which argues that thevalue of a product is closely related to its appearance at the time and place required by theconsumer. This new vision of the logistics behind the production design rationale "Gesturein time".Slowly LOGISTICS began increasingly to be perceived as a science of the future,having as a subject optimum correlation dimension and flow of information and goods, thecompany continued to adapt to environmental conditions.As such, logistics became a separate component of management, scientificdetermination of when a product should be in every point of production and sales chainlogistics basing modern image. For these reasons, shortly before the end of the twentiethcentury, became a conviction that logistics management was perceived to be "... aprerequisite for competitiveness in the current economic relations ... a managerial tool,technology overview, coordinating tasks supply, dissolution, industrial management,performance aftermarket. The basic logic of logistics requires local optimurilor principlethat the sum is equal to the global optimum”9.Logistics has evolved and is evolving, and since the incorporated foundations ofscience specific work that way any effective managerial functioning social system, logisticsglobal in scale, propagating itself as a religion.It is easy to understand that, in economic, logistic management logistics planningand managing art shows in support of the company's production process, from the selectionof suppliers, material movement within the company and distributing the finished productsto the final consumer. Understanding of this area in the company as a major player of theglobal economy, buying behavior requires knowledge of business, inventory management,production planning and control, quality management, transport and distribution.Logistics provides, through specific management, integrated management of allmaterial and finished goods flow in and out of the enterprise. The fundamental objective oflogistics management is to provide goods / services to customers with the lowest cost.Integrated management of operating cycle of the company includes: designing, sourcing,8 Des Dearlove, Stuart Crainer, Guru in business, Meteor Business Publishing, Bucharest, 2003, p.41Revista Română de Statistică – Supliment Trim IV/2012 33

manufacturing, distribution, transportation and storage, delivery to the customer after-salessupport.The trend is the move towards global logistics juncture and potential marketdemand and supply logistics, motor development with the European and global competitivecoordinates field. For this purpose conclude that access to decision-making positions inlarge companies is much easier to achieve if aspirants have training and experience inlogistics and management of logistics operations.In the global economy, specific knowledge society, effective logistics managementinvolves linking the three components together activities both within the company(production support activities) as well as sequences upstream interface (inputs) anddownstream (output ), the marketing channels (supply and physical distribution).Renowned theorist in the field - John Gattorna argued that, until recently, it was the mistakeof logistics management processes associated with the distribution of finished products, iethe last stage of production. This view ignored the role of logistics management inmanaging internal flows of materials, parts, patent parts and packages. The physical flow isaccompanied by a two-way flow of information which is operating the logistics 9 10 .Currently, many of the ideas held by John Gattorna are already a reality, as allcompanies that are successful logistics increasingly considered a managerial capacity,which is responsible for synchronizing product, place, time, with the purpose of optimizingthe overall activities to maintain organization in a competitive environment.Given the globalization and socialization of logistics, Professor Bernard Helmut Kortshac,Economic University of Vienna, said that logistics provides a comprehensive description ofthe interaction based on the division and specialization of labor between elements,functions, departments and enterprises, between national and international under markettransformation seller in a buyer's market. Logistics is therefore the opinion of Professor,Science and Optimizer efforts in various areas: transport, hospitals in operation in removingwaste from any activity in conquering outer space, in business negotiations stretching fromlogistics national logistics company, the National logistics logistics to the European andworld. 11 If we consider manufacturing company manager, logistician is the only person thatcan lead the firm to manage all information and material flows, from design of the productand to the consumer, taking into account the interactions of these flows. Such a positionenables the logistics department manager to estimate the company's ability to meetexpectations.Today, logistics status in the organization is further clarified, because it isinvolved in all levels of management, from planning to execution. Unlike in previousdecades meanings, logistics ceases to be seen as a set of activities and immediate priorities,carried out according to the imperatives of the moment.From the perspective of globalization deepening knowledge society, we associatesociologist Elijah Badescu assertion that, through logistics, institution and computer scienceto control the extent and time became possible. In his view, the terms British and ComputerIntegrated Manufacturing CIM-CIL-Computer Integrated Logistics is the logistics10.John L. Gattorna, Logistics and distribution management, Teora Publishing House, Bucharest,1999, p.4811Bernard Helmut Kortshac, Logistic, Logistics systems no. 2, 1991, p.734Revista Română de Statistică – Supliment Trim IV/2012

operations phase of computerization. Therefore, at this point, science becomes equalpowers of religion and philosophy, in that it can control and even intervene in temporalsequences, making successive temporal sequences and thus synchronized simultaneoussequences or even reversible. By joining computerized logistics logistics managementresulting institution or institutional logistics. In terms of logistics, sociologist ElijahBadescu considers that, at present, to move from institution to institution megalithic smallthat no strong national states can not control.12From these considerations it is clear that both globalization and logistics are twoterms that have special meanings known in the last fifty years. With new conceptionscompany functions, logistics passed from marketing to logistics logistics industry, gettingfacets of global functionality, managing, by principles of efficiency, information andmaterial flows upstream business, inside it, and and downstream of it, being responsible fordelivery of the products by design until they reach the final consumer with the lowest costs.As the same source of capital has become an increasingly diverse use, andprovides multiple industries, global logistics gained new meanings and became responsiblefor effectiveness in territorial capital, managing the flow of information and the productionof specific goods property, infrastructure, education, security, defense environment, healthetc.Social world reflects, of course, economic polarization, meaning that global elitesare increasingly attracted to new economic values that they share and propagate them,while large masses of people are inclined towards nationalism, ethnocentrism and tounpredictable liberation movements under what is perceived to be the source of povertydictated by globalization hegemony. In such an environment, resistance to globalizationprocesses is anticipated to evolve towards ideological radicalism, especially in countrieswhere the ruling political elite is numerically small and globalization is increasingly seen asa source of poverty, domination masked by unfair transfer of national wealth by certainhegemonic pole.Catalyzes global logistics, according to our opinion, processes globalizedeconomy, knowledge society, in the name of global political purposes. But beyondbeneficial trends, economic globalization and logistics is accompanied by painfulphenomena as: exacerbation of chronic local and regional interests, globalization majororganized crime responsible for drug trafficking, drugs, weapons and so on; radicalizationof fanaticism and ethnic origin religious, so diversifying terrorist actions.Logistical conditioning globalization, knowledge society, is expressed by the socalledminimum required standards organizations, communities or nations to accede toissues of interest. When a highway is required to have certain logistical facilities, a car meetcertain environmental standards, food to preserve certain technical conditions and so on,usually there are interests that certain products be sold locally, stimulating the consecrationof privileged producers. In this way, progress became the preserve of an elite production,while large geographical expanses turns to secure markets in areas of influence. 12Overall, the logistics part of a whole interaction between active and passiveelements of production, which is an ordered sequence targeting labor specialization, andtime and space physical movement, chain relationships are subordinate goal - creatingvalue. The essence of modern logistics management is the best information and materialflows upstream in the process of transformation and downstream business in the physicaldistribution of goods and services in terms of competitiveness.12. Ibid., p.309Revista Română de Statistică – Supliment Trim IV/2012 35

3. Determinations of change in small firms.Regardless of formal definitions, small firms represent meteoric appearances inthis globalized world gigantism. Small firms can be compared with schools of fish thataccompany large sea creatures. Small businesses are put at the service of big business orexploit market segments not relevant for large firms. Therefore, the emergence anddevelopment seem to be local and transient time. Management of these companies does notrequire complicated feasibility studies, but niche management actions designed to exploitmarket opportunities that require relatively small investments, coupled with promises ofproviding high value to customers. Therefore, competitiveness is the ability of smallentrepreneurs and private efforts to maintain the quality parameters offer. Therefore, thechange in small firms is closely linked to traits of entrepreneurs, which, most often, is theowner and manager. Practice shows that are maintained and thrive in a global marketplace,and build small businesses that change by:* Vision and passion. Vision is conscious action to make visible what is invisibleyet for many peers. It is an image that can bring profit opportunities, meeting high demandand desires. But the vision may remain just a dream if not accompanied by passion, a lot ofwork to be put into practice. Passion is a strong emotion to others as a dedicated purpose,such as hope and joy to pursue success as respect for people and results. Targeted, passionenables effective use of the full potential at the service of vision. A passion poorly directed,meaningless, based solely on interest, it can turn into an obsession. This maintains achimera, not only to reduce wealth and compromise efforts. Targeted entrepreneurial visionand passion leads to success, positive change, while poorly targeted vision and passion leadto failure, bankruptcy, losses regrettable social discontent. A bakery, a repair shop, laundryetc. are as many vision applications to profitably satisfy needs, desires and needs of peopleand change the objects of their vision hopes are all consumers and producers. Successfulchanges are specific to those small entrepreneurs who, every day: I understand that failureis an everyday fact of which they are the main culprits, for not properly set the future, focuson the present and are optimistic about future , living in hope and confidence, withoutgreed, envy or thoughts of revenge, keep balance creative freedoms and responsibilities,understanding well that their freedoms extend to there until you may be violating thefreedom of others to be adept at avoiding unfair things , believes that profits gratitudecomes from having done something important for others etc.* Optimizing management opportunity. For any person, consider that opportunitymanagement is expressed as a locus of skills, attitudes and knowledge. In a businessopportunity management is the expression of specific joint management leadershipopportunity opportunity management company with specific employees, meaning beinggiven management actions. What happens in a small business is closely linked to how it isdealt with action. Product, packaging, consistency, logistics, presentation etc. are thingsthat change from day to day, as desired leadership, desire to be very close to expectations.Attitudes, skills and knowledge of small business management are closely related to how toexpress enthusiasm for the purpose of all those who contribute to providing hope, rulersand a small number of employees. Management area of opportunity for small firms expandwhen business success is growing and collapses when it is found that the predictedexpectations are not met. Business success skills related to the driver skillfully useknowledge, attitudes and skills of its employees. As such, the contents becomes malleable,the role of each employee being changed every day, in direct correlation with the nature ofthe application. In a small company, employees complement each other at work, it helpsunderstand what to do, their job satisfaction in view of change management. Wanting to besafe at work, wanting the business to be profitable, managers and employees want to36Revista Română de Statistică – Supliment Trim IV/2012

discover what to do to take to be successful. Both the driver and the employee, notnecessarily talent (skills) result in goals, but involvement. By implication, to improveattitudes, develop skills, it cizelează characters, daily weights are exceeded. Character,involvement, discipline and responsibility are internal values that leveled the road tosuccess of small business. When the principles of responsible management are known andrespected by all members of the company, success is guaranteed, and the firm can prospersoon became a large company. That appeared and said in a globalized market DellComputers has complied and comply with the following management principles: no lie,sincerity, without vanity, pride is left at the door without apology, we have responsibilities,not easy goals, tasks, extended ensuring profitable growth, without deception, deceiveourselves successful not easy, no waste, we are concerned with keeping money etc. 13* Manage motivation. Many people are of the heart with that "Motivation is thespark that lights the fire of knowledge and fulfilling fuel engine. It makes up momentumand to maintain. "Motivation expressed form in which we explain the needs and justify ouractions. For small companies, the main purpose is related to immediate satisfaction andbetter conditions than the competition customers. This goal motivates all staff and specificway in which the rewarding or dissatisfaction at work. For all staff, in such an argument, nomatter what happens, because there are faster solutions. And solutions is a form ofacceptance of change as everyday activity. On behalf core purpose, employees of smallfirms act as the exchange volume production immediately the purposes of adaptingproduction, such as the exchange structure and packaging, to the purposes of consumerproducts etc. Not infrequently, analyzing firms fail, compared to those who successfullyleads to the following conclusion: the difference is given by the motivation shown how tochange the responses that were given to failures. And these issues are mainly related to thefirm's internal components, especially the human factor.* To offer competitive products and services than the competition. Smallbusinesses build their vision of the main goals of providing products and services betterthan the competition when customers need, with lower prices .. For that every employee isconvinced by the idea that we must work harder and better even as it is paid. Therefore it isconsidered that "The two main qualities that have helped thousands of people to arrive intheir little posts of great responsibility in executive positions are: First: the ability andwillingness to assume greater responsibilities. Second: the ability to help others to be moreefficient, directing them wisely efforts. We get what we offer - and this is not just an axiomidealistic, but a really healthy, underlying all successful people.Whether the job is to drive alone without needing supervision or help others tocarry out a common task in an intelligent way, the man who gets the most from the accountof his services is offering the more than those for which they work. "Such employees moveeasily from one job to another job easily formed work teams required by changing businessprocesses. 14 People who give more support marketing efforts, enabling favorable pricemovements.Vision and passion, management opportunities, management motivation andproviding competitive products and services than the competition are just some of theaspects that support change management in small firms. These elements are more obviousmanagement in small firms than in large firms because no hierarchical levels makes thereaction speed in small firms is much higher than in large firms. In the small firms, thechange is an everyday component a manifestation of rapid response, primarily related to13 Zig Ziglar, Beyond Top, Old Court Publishing House, Bucharest, 2011, 11714 Napoleon Hil, Beyond Top, Old Court Publishing House, Bucharest, 2011, p.80Revista Română de Statistică – Supliment Trim IV/2012 37

leadership, while big companies keep changing organizational structures, which meansoften a delayed reaction and cumbersome. Therefore, the change in small firms is acompetitive advantage that must always be maintained.References[1]. Bernard Helmut Kortshac, Logistic, Logistics systems no. 2, 1991[2]. Chip R. Bell, Managers and mentors, Old Court Publishing House, Bucharest, 2010[3]. Des Dearlove, Stuart Crainer, Guru in business, Meteor Business Publishing,Bucharest, 2003[4]. Gerald Zaltman, How consumers think, Polirom, Bucharest, 2007[5]. John L. Gattorna, Logistics and distribution management, Teora Publishing House,Bucharest, 1999[6]. Joseph Turner, On the Origins of Human Emottion: A Sociological Inquiry into theEvolution Of Human Affect, Stanford University Press, Stanford, California, 2000.[7]. Mircea Udrescu, Logistics and globalization, the book "Area Southeast Europe in aglobalized world", Scientific Session with International Participation - Strategies XXI,National Defence University, Bucharest, 2007[8]. Philip Kotler, Kotler on Marketing, Publishing Brandbuilders, Bucureşzi, 2003[9]. Rodica Chirita, Logistics - stimulating factor enterprise economic Tribune no. 2, 1990[10]. Sultan Kermally, Masters of Human Resource Management, Meteor BusinessPublishing, Bucharest, 2009[11]. Stephen R. Covey, 7-speed efficiency, ALL Publishing House, Bucharest, 1989[12]. Zig Ziglar, Beyond Top, Old Court Publishing House, Bucharest, 201138Revista Română de Statistică – Supliment Trim IV/2012

European Competitiveness in the Context ofGlobalizationLecturer Daniel ŞTEFAN, Ph. D.stefandaniel73@yahoo.comChristian University “Dimitrie Cantemir”, BucharestAbstractThe competitiveness is defined as a „set of institutions, policies and factors whichdetermine a country’s level of productivity”. On its turn, the level of productivityestablishes a lasting level of prosperity which can be reached by an economy. In otherwords, the competitive economies tend to be able to produce a higher level of income fortheir citizens. The level of productivity determines as well the rates of profitability obtainedby investments (physical, human and technological), in an economy. Because the rates ofprofitability are fundamental factors of the economic increase rates, a competitive economyis that which increases faster on long term.The World Economic Forum has founded the analysis of the competitiveness basedon the Global Competitiveness index (GCI) since 2005, an extremely comprehensive indexfor the measuring of national competitiveness, which includes the microeconomic andmacroeconomic aspects of the national competitiveness.The competitiveness is almost always restricted to the international pricecompetitiveness, measured by indicators of the exchange, deflated in many ways. Such ananalysis focuses only on the results of the exports.Europe has learned many lessons from the recent financial and economic crisis. Itis very clear now that in a very well integrated Union, and much more in a monetary union,the economies and successes of the member states are interconnected.Key words: Globalization, global competitiveness, good gouvernance,technologic innovation, tax competition, global efficiency.JEL Classification: F60As a result of the increase of the competence and other structural modificationsinvolved in the globalization, the maintenance and the increase of economycompetitiveness have become primary concerns in all the countries in the world.Basically, the globalization may be defined as an increased interdependence of theworld economies manifested by border transactions. This process has modified thecompetitive environment that the companies all over the world and not just those in the EUdeal with, thus putting to the test the adapting abilities of the economies of all theindustrialized countries in the world.The advantages the countries carrying out an activity within the EU benefit fromare those offered by the new opportunities of globalization, these being howeversimultaneously subjected to the competitive pressure of the newcomers from developingcountries, mainly because some of these countries have reached a fairly high level as sharein the world economy (as in the case of China). The corporations, as well as the publicauthorities are making efforts to modify the adopted policies and strategies, thus trying toobtain higher benefits from globalization and to absorb the additional costs of thesestructural adjustments. The pressure is felt already, being manifested by a decrease of theRevista Română de Statistică – Supliment Trim IV/2012 39

share of exports in the Euro area on the global markets. From other competitors with anadvanced economy, the Euro area still remains relatively specialized in categories ofmerchandise intensely in labor.There is no definition with an acceptable degree of accuracy of thecompetitiveness under the conditions of globalization. Most often, when defining it, theaspects of competitiveness regarding price, respectively the costs are taken intoconsideration, aspects such as productivity, the technological level, the research –development, the quality of the legislative or institutional frame, the infrastructure beingignored.In order to determine the global competitiveness of the countries in the EU,respectively of those in the Euro area, besides the price, other essential factors must betaken into consideration: the accessibility on the market, the size of the market, the place inthe technological ranking of the companies and the quality of the institutionalenvironment. 1 Seen like this, the European competitiveness strongly claims for thenecessity of continuing the efforts for integration of the single market and of making theEuropean competitive environment stronger, as main means of improvement of theallocation and sustainable use of the resources and of adapting to the conditions ofglobalization.In order to create a relatively comprehensive image of the abilities of a country tobe globally competitive, the productivity performances which must be studied up to amicroeconomic level must be taken into consideration. Taking into consideration theinteraction of many factors specific for each country, as well as the access on the marketsand the institutional barriers or the productivity on microeconomic level, a clear and morecomplete perception of the competitiveness may be created, being created as well thepossibility of discovering new indicators to measure it accurately. Most internationalforums use an elliptical definition of it, respectively: „the competitiveness includes all thosefactors which have an impact over an economy in its competition with the internationalmarkets”. 2 Within the EU, the presence of the foreign competitors, the widening of theinternal market, the faster technological advancement of the resident companies, theincrease of the quality within the political and legislative frame lead to a higher degree ofinternal competence. Besides, the efficient relocation of the resources between thecompanies, the increase of the level of productivity to a micro level leads to the increase ofthe productivity of the respective country. The ability of the legislative frame of a countryto distinguish between the impact of the accessibility on the market and the size of themarket, on one hand, and the technological improvement and the quality of the institutionson the other, allows a correct organization into a hierarchy of the countries from the pointof view of their competitiveness and the evaluation of some alternatives of new policies andcommunity strategies.The competitiveness is almost always restricted to the international pricecompetitiveness, measured by indicators of the exchange, deflated in many ways. Such ananalysis focuses only on the results of the exports. This mainly ignores the degree ofcompetitiveness the internal market deals with before the invasion of the imports, forexample those from China, not only under the aspect of the prices, but also under the aspect1 Filippo di Mauro şi Katrin Forster (2008), European Central Bank, Eurosystem, Globalization andthe competitiveness of the Euro area, 97 Occasional Paper Series.2 Baumann U. and di Mauro F. (2007), Globalization and Euro area trade – Interactions andChallanges, ECB, 55 Occasional Paper.40Revista Română de Statistică – Supliment Trim IV/2012

of the technological level, of the productivity, of the specialization. In a similar way, thereis the question of the organization of the internal EU consumption market into a hierarchy,in the confrontation with the highest technology imports coming from the USA. Althoughthe prices, the costs, the wages or the exchange continue to be important factors for thedetermination of the companies’ ability to compete with the international markets,especially on short term, the way in which the companies and implicitly their countriesmanage to successfully adapt to the major modifications involved in globalization dependsas well on other factors.On of these is the ability of the countries to adapt the specialization of the exportsto the comparative advantages when the world trade involves as well low costs andsystemic importance. Europe’s international competitiveness is especially determined bythe productivity performances of its companies. On its turn, this productivity depends onthe specific factors of each country as well as the infrastructure, the level of the research –development and the professional training, the legislative frame, the quality of the taxregime. Thus, competitiveness can be defined as being as well the totality of the factorswith impact on the ability of an economy to compete with international markets. Aneconomy may compete with foreigners, both within the country as well as abroad.The competitiveness seen only from a point of view of the price is defined by twocategories of indicators. The first category includes a wide range of real rate of theexchange based on different indicators of costs and prices (consumption prices, productionprices, labor costs and the deflator (PIB). The second category of indicators is based onrelative export prices. Such an indicator includes strategies of the companies practicing theprices on the market, such as, the way in which the companies replace the exchange ratemovements by adjusting their profit margin, instead of including them immediately andevery time within the price requested from the clients abroad. Such an indicator reflectswith a higher accuracy the ability of a country to compete on the export markets and offersa much more correct prediction of the export performances.The World Economic Forum has founded the analysis of the competitivenessbased on the Global Competitiveness index (GCI) since 2005, an extremely comprehensiveindex for the measuring of national competitiveness, which includes the microeconomicand macroeconomic aspects of the national competitiveness.The competitiveness is defined as a „set of institutions, policies and factors whichdetermine a country’s level of productivity”. 3 On its turn, the level of productivityestablishes a lasting level of prosperity which can be reached by an economy. In otherwords, the competitive economies tend to be able to produce a higher level of income fortheir citizens. The level of productivity determines as well the rates of profitability obtainedby investments (physical, human and technological), in an economy. Because the rates ofprofitability are fundamental factors of the economic increase rates, a competitive economyis that which increases faster on long term.The concept of competitiveness involves fixed and dynamic elements; even if theproductivity of a country clearly determines its ability of maintaining an increased level ofthe incomes, is one of the determining factors of returning to investments, one of the keyfactors explaining the an economy’s increasing potential.These aspects are included in ICG, each measuring a different aspect of thecompetitiveness. These components are grouped in pillars of competitiveness, respectively:3 Klaus Schwab (2010), The Global Competitiveness Report 2010-2011, World Economic Forum,Geneva, Switzerland, p. 4.Revista Română de Statistică – Supliment Trim IV/2012 41

The institutional environment. Pillar 1. It is determined by the legal andadministrative frame in which the individuals, the companies and the governments interactin order to generate incomes and wealth in the economy. The importance of a healthy andreasonable institutional environment has become more evident during the economic crisis,taking into consideration the more and more direct role played by the state in the economyof many countries. Also, the institutional quality influences the investment, productionorganization decisions and plays an important role in distributing the benefits and bearingthe costs of the development strategies and policies. An adequate management of the publicfinances is also critical in order to ensure the trust within the national businessenvironment. Although the economic literature has mainly focused its attention on thepublic institutions, the private institutions are also an important element in the process ofcreating welfare. The recent global financial crisis, together with the numerous corporationscandals has emphasized the importance of the accounting and reporting standards and thetransparency for the prevention of frauds and the poor administration, the ensuring of a wellgoverning and the maintenance of the investors and the consumers’ trust.The infrastructure. Pillar 2. An extended and efficient infrastructure is essential inorder to ensure the economy’s efficient functioning, since it is an important factordetermining the location of the economic activities and the types of activities or sectorswhich may develop within an economy. A well developed infrastructure reduces thedistance effect between the regions, the integration on the national market and itsconnection to the low cost levels for the markets in other countries and regions. The qualityand scale of the networks of infrastructure have a significant impact on the economicincrease and affects the irregularities between the incomes and the poverty in differentways. 4The macroeconomic environment. Pillar 3. Establishing the macroeconomicenvironment is important for the business environment, and as a result, it is important forthe global competitiveness of a country. It is important to notice that this pillar assesses thestability of the macroeconomic environment; therefore it does not take into considerationthe way in which the public costs are managed by the government.The health and education. Pillar 4. A healthy labor force is vital for thecompetitiveness and productivity of a country. The lack of health leads to significant costsfor the companies, such as those caused by the absence of sick employees or by thedecreased efficiency the sick employees work with. The investments in supplying healthservices are, therefore critical, clear and moral from economic reasons. This pillar takesinto consideration the primary education. The basic education increases the efficiency ofeach worker. The employees who have received little primary education may carry out onlysimple manual work and find it difficult to adapt to the production processes and moreadvanced techniques.The higher education and professional training. Pillar 5. The higher education andthe professional training are essential for the economies wishing to move the chain of valuebeyond the simple production processes. This pillar measures the rates of enrollment insecondary and higher education, as well as the quality of the education evaluated by thebusiness community.Goods market efficiency. Pillar 6. The countries with efficient markets of goodsare well placed in order to obtain the corresponding mix of goods and services requested bythe specific conditions of the demand and offer, as well as to make sure that these goods4 Klaus Schwab (2010), The Global Competitiveness Report 2010-2011, World Economic Forum,Geneva, Switzerland.42Revista Română de Statistică – Supliment Trim IV/2012

can be efficiently traded. From cultural, historical or educational reasons, the clients may bemore demanding in some countries than in others. This may represent an importantcompetitive advantage because the companies are forced to be more innovating and moreoriented towards the client, thus being imposed the necessary discipline to carry out theefficiency to be applied on the market.Labor market efficiency. Pillar 7. The efficiency and flexibility of the labor forcemarket is critical in order to ensure the allotment of the workers in locations with the mostefficient use in economy and the prevention of incentives in order to offer the best efforts atthe place of work. The labor force markets must therefore, have an increased flexibility inorder to quickly transfer the workers from one economic activity to another and to reducedcosts and in order to allow wage fluctuations without too many social disruptions.Development of the financial market. Pillar 8. The recent financial crisis hasevidenced the central role of a healthy financial sector and its well functioning for theeconomic activities. An efficient financial sector allocates the resources saved by thecitizens of a nation, as well as those entering in the economy from abroad, offering themthe most productive use. The business investments are essential for the productivity.Therefore, the economies need sophisticated financial markets which can create availableshare capital for investments in the private sector from resources such as the credits in thebanking sector regulated accordingly, thus taking the form of securities, venture capital, aswell as other financial products.Technological training. Pillar 9. In today’s globalization context the technologyhas become a more and more important element for the companies which want to competeand prosper. This pillar measures the ability with which an economy adopts existenttechnologies in order to increase the productivity of its industry, with a special accent on itsability to fully influence the information and communication technologies (ICT) in dailyactivities and in production processes for the increase of efficiency and competitiveness.Market size. Pillar 10. The size of the market affects the productivity because thebig markets allow the companies to exploit the scale economies. In the globalization era,the international markets have become a substitute for the internal markets, especially forthe small countries. There is empirical proof showing that the commercial opening ispositively associated with the increase.Sophistication degree of the business environment. Pillar 11. The businesssophistication leads to a higher efficiency in the goods and services production. On its turn,this leads to the increase of the productivity, thus increasing the competitiveness of anation. Generally this pillar refers to the quality of a country’s business network as well asto the quality of the operations and strategies of individual companies.Technologic innovation. Pillar 12. Although the substantial earnings may beobtained by the improvement of the institutions, the formation of the infrastructure, thereduction of the macroeconomic instability or the improvement of the human capital, allthese factors seem to eventually lead to diminished results. On long term, the life standardscan be improved only by technological innovation. The innovation is very important for theeconomies so that they approach the frontiers of knowledge and the possibility ofintegrating exogenous technologies.While the results of the 12 pillars of competitiveness are reported separately, it isimportant to be taken into consideration that these are not independent – they tend toconsolidate each other and a weakness in one field has often a negative impact on theRevista Română de Statistică – Supliment Trim IV/2012 43

domain. 5 For example, the innovation (pillar 12) will be very difficult to achieve without awell educated and trained labor force (pillars 4 and 5), which is the point of absorbing newtechnologies (pillar 9), and without sufficient financing resources (pillar 8) for research –development or an efficient goods market to make the creation of new market innovationspossible (pillar 6). While the pillars are included in a unique index, the analyses arereported separately for 12 values because these details offer a specific image for certainareas in which a country needs to improve.The adjustment of the European policies to the actual global economymodificationsEurope has learned many lessons from the recent financial and economic crisis. Itis very clear now that in a very well integrated Union, and much more in a monetary union,the economies and successes of the member states are interconnected. Although the EU isprovided with a series of tools for the coordination of the economic policy, the crisis hasproved that these have not been fully used and that there are gaps in the actual governingsystem. There is a wide political consensus that this must change and that the EU must beequipped with a wider and more efficient set of policy tools in order to ensure the futureprosperity and life standards.References[1]. Assaf Razin şi Efraim Sadka (1991), International Tax Competition and Gains fromTax harmonization, 37 Economic Letters[2]. Baumann U. şi di Mauro F. (2007), Globalization and euro area trade – Interactionsand Challanges, ECB, 55 Occasional Paper.[3]. Caves Richard E. (1982), Multinational Entreprise and Economic Analysis, CambridgeUniversity Press[4]. Chelan Adina, Concurenţa fiscală şi impactul său asupra româniei în contextulglobalizării (teză de doctorat), ASE Bucureşti, 2011[5]. Codul de conduită privind impozitarea afacerilor adoptat de Consiliu în şedinţa din 1decembrie 2007.[6]. Filippo di Mauro şi Katrin Forster (2008), European Central Bank, Eurosystem,Globalization and the competitiviness of the euro area, 97 Occasional Paper Series.[7]. Klaus Schwab (2010), The Global Competitiveness Report 2010-2011, WorldEconomic Forum, Geneva, Switzerland[8]. Peggy B. Musgrave (1969), United States Taxation of Foreign Investment Income:Issues and Ardguments, Harvard Univ Harvard Law School[9]. Roman Costantin, Moşteanu Tatiana – Finanţele instituţiilor publice, EdituraEconomică, Bucureşti, 2011[10]. Raport OECD (1998), Concurenţa fiscală dăunătoare: o problemă emergentăglobală şi Raportul OECD (2001), Proiectul OECD privind practicile fiscaledăunătoare: Raportul din 2001[11]. Wilson J şi D. Wildasin (2003A), Tax competition: bane or boon?, în Journal ofPublic Economics 88[12]. Zodrow G. şi P. Mieszkowski (1986), Pigou, Tiebout, property taxation and theunderprovision of local public goods, Journal of Urban Economics 195 Klaus Schwab (2010), The Global Competitiveness Report 2010-2011, World Economic Forum,Geneva, Switzerland44Revista Română de Statistică – Supliment Trim IV/2012

Logistical Centres and Their Roles in Companies'Activities on the Example of SME’s Enterprise XProfessor Janusz GRABARA PhDjanusz@grabara.euCzestochowa University of TechnologyProfessor Ioan Constantin DIMA PhDdima.ioan_constantin@yahoo.com“Valahia” University of TargovisteBartłomiej OKWIET Phdsbartomoliej_o@yahoo.comCzestochowa University of TechnologyAbstractCosts are in all aspects of each company. Some of the most noticeable costs ofbusiness are the costs associated with storage, transportation and distribution the productsof the company. In this case a significant impact on reducing these costs is to use theservices of logistics centers, specializing in trading all kinds of goods. The purpose of thisarticle is to show how the transfer of logistical supplies from thedistribution center logistics contributes to a significant reduction in costs incurred by thecompany and streamline its operation.Key words: distribution centre, enterprise, SMEJEL Clasification: D30, M10.1.IntroductionIn business, there is a clear link between the storage and transport. In order tominimize transport, the number of deliveries should be increased, which in turn entails theneed to increase the number of means of transport. To make transport fulfill its taskproperly, the process of transportation should be fast, flexible and precise. Because of thecost, it is necessary to keep an eye on the means of transport, that are they best loaded andavoid any kind of empty trips, which generate an entirely unnecessary costs. All of theseactivities for individual companies can be extremely difficult, time consuming and costly,and above all require certain specific conditions, such as having a huge warehouse, whencompany is unable to have it. The logistics centers, having adequate storage space and thenumber of transportation modes, is able to meet all logistical tasks - from supply logistics tothe logistics of distribution.2. Logistics Center and the essence of its actionsThe emergence of logistic centers arose from the needs of the market economy andits principles to cooperate with foreign countries. Currently, international co-operation isassociated with economic integration and can reach a global dimension. Economicintegration is particularly noticeable in the European Union countries and the rules andregulations of the community greatly contribute to the integration both in industry andgeography. The effect of increasing size, up to a global level, will reduce the number ofRevista Română de Statistică – Supliment Trim IV/2012 45

suppliers and freight forwarders and logistics companies closer with the companies (clients)1 .There are many reasons why the logistics centers were built, but the main causesof logistics centers usually are classified as 2 : Storage of stocks of finished goods that are produced with longproduction cycles. Long product life cycles affect the reduction inproduction costs such as by reducing the time taken to prepare themachines for production, Storage of inventory to meet demand for the level which may be greaterthan the productive capacity of the company. Storage of inventory to meet demand which occurs seasonally, Storage of inventory in order to improve the quality of customer service,i.e. immediate replacement under warranty, Reduce transport costs by fully loading the means of transport.The main task of logistics centers operating in the area of the market economy isthe availability of specific tangible goods ,in sufficient quantity, at the desired location atthe right time and at the lowest possible cost 3 . The emergence of logistic centersconcentration was determined by specific situations, which can include 4 : Disposal of carrying out the functions of logistics industry anddistribution to foreign providers of logistics services (one of the majorcauses of distribution centers). Changing the mode of transport (eg, rail, train, car, etc.) Massive change in the form of goods (eg containers, pallets, etc.) Changing the size and structure of the orders (usually combine smallorders into larger) Changing the owners of cargo, Delaying the time of customs clearance of cargo operations, Changes in rate of delivery and consumption or production of large-scale.Logistics centers were created in response to the ever-increasing globalization ofthe market economy and the development of logistics, both in industry and commerce.They are a response to the growing needs for the provision of logistics services, fromprocurement to distribution, but without the production process. At present, logistic centersare the very important elements in the modern economy and information society.As an independent entity, a logistics center has 5 : a separate site affiliated with the network of roads and telecommunicationnetwork, infrastructure, such as internal roads, squares, car parks, buildings,1 Kościelny R. „Bałtyckie Centrum Logistyczne BLC jako platforma kooperacji w regioniepomorskim”, [w] „Kompleksowe zarządzanie logistyczne”, materiały konferencyjne nr 3, Szczyrk19992 Rushton A., Croucher P., Baker P., “Logistics and distribution management”, Kogan Pade Limited,London 20003 Ziemkowski M., Podleśny A., „Lokalizacja centrów logistycznych a środowisko naturalne”, [w]„Kompleksowe zarządzanie logistyczne”, materiały konferencyjne nr 6, Ustroń 20014 Fijałkowski J., „Kryteria oceny efektywności centrów logistycznych w stadium projektowania”, [w]„Kompleksowe zarządzanie logistyczne”, materiały konferencyjne nr 4, Ustroń 20025 Tamże46Revista Română de Statistică – Supliment Trim IV/2012

technological equipment for the handling, storage and transport and ITequipment,qualified personnelorganization of the corresponding logistic tasks.Fig. no. 1 - Diagrams the flow of goods between traders S (supplier) and R (the recipient),LC (logistics centre).Source: Author’s elaboration based on K. Richtera, Tarkowskiego J., „Znaczenie centrówlogistycznych dla nowoczesnego gospodarowania”, Springer Verlag, Berlin 1996As is apparent from the drawings (A and B), the main purpose of logistics centre isto organize the stream flow of goods. Figure A shows the movement of goods without thelogistics centers, while Figure B - including logistics centers. In the absence of logisticscenters (figure A) roads between suppliers and customers are crossed which can cause thattraffic between these two entities has increased – and cause a significant increase in thecost of transport resources and distribution. In cases where both parties benefit fromlogistics centers (Figure B), can be observed a significant streamlining the flow of goods,better use of transport and thereby substantially reduce the cost of distribution.Their main advantage is that they allow the coordination of the movement of rawmaterials and finished products directly to consumers thereby contributing to significantcost reductions. The factors determining the formation of logistics centers primarilyinclude 6 : Distribution logistics is perceived as a marketing strategy Continually seeking ways to minimize the costs incurred by the company,Increase the efficiency, effectiveness and productivity.Key services offered by the logistics center are: supply services,transportation, unloading, contemplation, loading and distribution.6 Tan J., Hui L., Wee-Teo Ch., “Distribution Centre management”, McGraw Hill, UK 2006Revista Română de Statistică – Supliment Trim IV/2012 47

3. Types and functions of logistics centers.The most common criterions by the logistical centers are discriminated byoperating radius and impact 7 :International logistics centers - have the highest degree of organizationaland functional development. They are characterized by: a radius of about500 - 800km, the surface of land 100-150 ha, developed logisticsinfrastructure, a full computer system and the service developed logisticsservices;Regional logistics centers - an intermediate link in the logistics channel.They are characterized by: the radius of cooperation around 50-80km,well-developed infrastructure and logistics system;Local logistics centers - are the lowest level of organization in the systemof logistics centers. They are characterized by: operating radius of some5-8km and limited logistics infrastructure.Another criterion to be applied to logistics centers, it is a breakdown dueto the nature of its services 8 :Freight Center - serves as a central point for the reception, sorting anddistributing productsCentre for Transport - is the connecting point for short-range transport oflong-distance transport,Distribution center - where the goods are separated and then prepared fordistribution (including the provision of transport services, storage andhandling)City-logistic (urban centers, logistics) - the concept is an element ofurban logistics, which in turn is a tool for solving problems in thefunctioning of highly urbanized areas and relies on a holistic account offreight traffic in cities, its aim is to reduce congestion in urban centers,while maintaining the same level of supply and efficiency of transport,Transhipment Centre - where it makes the handling of goods from onemode of transport to another.Apart from the above logistic centers, market centers are also being a combinationof several logistics and in some cases all of the above types of logistic centers. But the basiccondition for the existence of such a logistics center is a demand for the services it offers.The logistics centers’ functions are always subordinated to the task of logistics andmust satisfy the condition of availability of certain goods in sufficient quantity at the righttime and place. For most functions performed logistic centers are included in thesefunctions (both main and auxiliary) 9 :Trans-shipment of cargo transfer from multiple suppliers,Storage of cargo from multiple vendors and intended for severalaudiences,Chapter and completing cargoes destined for multiple recipients,7 Abt S., „Różnorodność logistycznych centrów dystrybucji”, [w] „Teoria a praktyka polskichcentrów logistycznych”, materiały konferencyjne, Poznań 20018 Richter K., Tarnowski J. „Centra logistyczne – ważny element łańcucha logistycznego”, EuropejskiUniwersytet Viadrina, Frankfurt 20009Fijałkowski J., „Analiza funkcji centrów logistycznych” [w] Projekt Badawczy KBN Nr 023-12,Zadanie 5.1, Warszawa 200048Revista Română de Statistică – Supliment Trim IV/2012

Transportation, especially to consumers, Treatment of materials, Packing, which results in transport units and storage, Corrective Services, Acceptance of returns and complaints, Cleaning containers, etc.Each LC, however, generally provides a set of standard services, is different and isimpossible to develop the typical tasks of the logistics for a number of LC. Logisticalchallenge is the synthesis of LC function.4. Characteristics of SMEs as a business person seeking the services of alogistics centerThere is no unique definition of small and medium-sized enterprises. Thedefinition 10 differs from country to country, depending on the purpose of its usage, theeconomic development level and the application of different criteria regarding employmentand investment capital. However, the most common definitional basis used is employment.The enterprises differ in their levels of capitalization, sales and employment. Accordingly,the definitions employing the measures of size (number of employees, turnover,profitability, net worth, tec.) when applied at a single sector may provoke the classificationof all its enterprises as small, while the same definitions when applied to another sectorresult in a different way.Using the concept of small and medium enterprises, generally takes into accountcompanies that 11 :have relatively little capital and employ a small number of employees;have a small market share, and often the owner is the manager (or groupof persons), which eliminates complex administrative and bureaucraticstructures; are financially and legally independent from the other operators.Given the ambiguity of these characteristics describe the size of the enterprise, inpractice, most quantitative criteria are used, ie the average number of employees, theaverage size of income and the value of fixed assets. As defined by the EU, enterprises:A small company is the operator, in which: employs fewer than 50 employees andannual net revenue from the sale of goods, products and services and financial transactionsmay not exceed the equivalent in PLN 7 million or total assets of its balance sheet at theend of the previous financial year should not exceed 5 million Euros.Medium-sized enterprise is a company, in which: are employed on average lessthan 250 employees and annual net revenue from the sale of goods, products and servicesand financial transactions may not exceed 40 million or total assets of its balance sheet atthe end of the previous financial year should not exceed 27 million Euro. 12Depending on the size and profile of the business may greater or lesser extent, usethe services of a logistics center. But the company which seeks to develop by increasing theproduct offer and the number of clients should bear in mind that logistics centers offer10 Based on Kozetinac G., Vukovic V., Kostic D., Corporate finance and monetary policy: The role ofsmall and medium-sized enterprises, Czestochowa University of Technology, Czestochowa 2010.11 Piasecki R., Ekonomia Rozwoju PWE Warszawa 2007.12 Czech-Rogosz J., Pietrucha J., Żelazny R., Koniunktura Gospodarcza GH Beck Warszawa 2009.Revista Română de Statistică – Supliment Trim IV/2012 49

services which can improve significantly contribute to reductions in the costs incurred bythe company in the supply and distribution.5. Characteristics of company X and the benefits which relate to work with alogistics centerCompany X was established in 1998 with its headquarters in London, it also hasoffices in Madrid and Milan. Company X deals with importing fashion goods (female, maleand children) as well as shoes and accessories of all kinds in bulk and then the goods areshipped to retail customers located throughout Europe and Russia. Clothes and shoes aremanufactured in factories located in the U.S., just in California, part of the footwear is alsoproduced in Italy. However, components, mainly in the form of jewelry and handbags aremanufactured by the factories located in China. After manufacture, the goods aretransported to Europe as a means of transport are used in aircraft (the goods in the U.S.) andships (goods from China).At the beginning all goods went to the warehouse, located next to the headquartersin London and from there, using trucks, transported to final customers. But over time, withthe development of the company and increase the number of its customers, the magazine inLondon was too small, additional reached difficulty moving around the city, as London is acity with a very big traffic. The introduction of fees for entry into the city has reallyimproved the traffic but, also, imposed additional costs on the company, because the fee forentry to the city center is 8 pounds per day for each vehicle. Given that the magazine duringthe day can leave even more than 20 trucks not to mention the trucks importing goods,these costs were very high. Therefore, a few years ago, the company has decided to initiatecooperation with the logistics center located in Belgium. 13Belspeed Logistics Center was founded over 25 years ago and is a leading logisticscentre for the operation of enterprises operating in the clothing market. It has a storagespace with a total area of 50 thousands square meters, employs over 120 employees andprovides services in: Import - deliveries from factories located in different parts of the world, Storage - storage, control and inventory management, Sorting and packing, Support for stocks subject to customs procedures, Distribution in the countries of the EU and outside EU.Currently, all goods shipped to the company X goes to LC Belspeed where areextracted, entered into the system, then carefully separated, prepared for shipment andfinally shipped.Once the finished products are ready for shipment, factories inform the companyof scheduled deliveries, and the company gives to know the logistics center of planneddeliveries. In the case of the USA or Italy, means of transport do not change, it is always aplane (USA) and trucks (Italy). In the case of products originating from China, dependingon the time remaining until the delivery of products to final consumers, goods are shippedby air or sea. All the information’s connected with the scheduled deliveries are transmittedto the logistics centre - means of transport, estimated time of arrival at the warehouse, thesize of delivery and numbers of products.13 Dima I.C., Elements of logistics, used in industrial operational management, Apeiron Eu, Presov, 2010.50Revista Română de Statistică – Supliment Trim IV/2012

Fig. No. 2 – Cooperation scheme between company X and Belspeed logistics Centre.Source: Author’s elaborations based on company’s materials.Upon arrival at the logistics center, Belspeed gives the company know that thegoods have been received and scheduled time to enter data into the system. Then, thesupplies are unpacked and using scanners entered into computer system which is used byboth company X and logistics center. After entering the entire supply to the system, a reportis created containing the product codes, the number of total and information aboutdiscrepancies’. On the basis of this report, the company creates a list of products dividedinto a single delivery and sends it to the logistics center in order to develop appropriatepackages. After the contemplation and packaging, logistics center sends another report tothe company which provides information on the size of individual supply and time of theirshipment. This report is then compared with the list of companies and if everything iscorrect, the company sends the green light to send the goods. At the end of each day, thelogistics center created another report with the list of goods that have left the logisticscentre on that day. Based on this report, the company checks whether a supply has reachedthe final recipient and in case of delay or loss of shipment, the company contacts theshipper in order to locate the package or give reasons for the delay. 14Cooperation between Belspeed logistics center and company X, has beendelivering the first tangible benefits, which primarily include: Large storage area for the company’ X exclusive use, Specifically targeted to employees who deal solely in goods belonging tothe enterprise, Significant improvement of the process handling of goods, ranging fromthe acceptance of delivery until the preparation of individual shipments tofinal recipients,14 Dima, I.C., Marcincin, I.N., Grabara, J., Pachura, P., Kot, S., & Man, M. Operational managementsystems of the production achieved in flexible manufacturing cells. Presov, Slovakia: TechinicalUniversity of Kosice (2011).Revista Română de Statistică – Supliment Trim IV/2012 51

Increasing the efficiency of space loading trucks,Substantially reduce the cost of transportation - warehouse is located inBelgium, in the middle of Europe, the company at this point does not bearthe costs associated with fee for entry into the city and ferry tickets,Having issues with the head of the transport of goods, the company canfocus on other areas of its activities, for example, are collaborating withmore manufacturers, the introduction of new brands to offer or attractnew customers.Use the services of a logistics center has improved all the logistics processesoccurring in the enterprise, starting from the logistics of supply until the logistics ofdistribution, logistics of production, in turn, does not occur in this case above.6. ConclusionWith the development of market economy and the increasing number ofenterprises, increasing the demand for logistic centers. Its work focused mainly on meetingthe needs of logistics companies make that demand for their services still growing. Due tologistics centers, supply chain companies is significantly improved resulting in a reductionof logistics costs incurred by the company. Today, logistics is one of the most importantpoints that occur in a market economy. The company uses the services of a logistics centerto accelerating the movement of goods along with a reduction in the cost of shipping. Acompany with distribution, in order to develop, can, in these days, choose a great tool,complex commodity handlers, which is a logistics center.References[1]. Kościelny R. „Bałtyckie Centrum Logistyczne BLC jako platforma kooperacji wregionie pomorskim”, [w] „Kompleksowe zarządzanie logistyczne”, materiałykonferencyjne nr 3, Szczyrk 1999[2]. Rushton A., Croucher P., Baker P., “Logistics and distribution management”, KoganPade Limited, London 2000[3]. Ziemkowski M., Podleśny A., „Lokalizacja centrów logistycznych a środowiskonaturalne”, [w] „Kompleksowe zarządzanie logistyczne”, materiały konferencyjne nr6, Ustroń 2001[4]. Fijałkowski J., „Kryteria oceny efektywności centrów logistycznych w stadiumprojektowania”, [w] „Kompleksowe zarządzanie logistyczne”, materiały konferencyjnenr 4, Ustroń 2002[5]. K. Richter, Tarkowski J., „Znaczenie centrów logistycznych dla nowoczesnegogospodarowania”, Springer Verlag, Berlin 1996[6]. Tan J., Hui L., Wee-Teo Ch., “Distribution Centre management”, McGraw Hill, UK2006[7]. Abt S., „Różnorodność logistycznych centrów dystrybucji”, [w] „Teoria a praktykapolskich centrów logistycznych”, materiały konferencyjne, Poznań 2001[8]. Richter K., Tarnowski J. „Centra logistyczne – ważny element łańcuchalogistycznego”, Europejski Uniwersytet Viadrina, Frankfurt 2000[9]. Fijałkowski J., „Analiza funkcji centrów logistycznych” [w] Projekt Badawczy KBNNr 023-12, Zadanie 5.1, Warszawa 2000[10]. Kozetinac G., Vukovic V., Kostic D., Corporate finance and monetary policy: Therole of small and medium-sized enterprises, Czestochowa University of Technology,Czestochowa 2010.52Revista Română de Statistică – Supliment Trim IV/2012

[11]. Piasecki R., Ekonomia Rozwoju PWE Warszawa 2007.[12]. Czech-Rogosz J., Pietrucha J., Żelazny R., Koniunktura Gospodarcza GH BeckWarszawa 2009.[13]. Dima I.C., Elements of logistics, used in industrial operational management,Apeiron Eu, Presov, 2010.[14]. Dima, I.C., Marcincin, I.N., Grabara, J., Pachura, P., Kot, S., & Man, M.Operational management systems of the production achieved in flexible manufacturingcells. Presov, Slovakia: Techinical University of Kosice (2011).Revista Română de Statistică – Supliment Trim IV/2012 53

The Definition of Goodwill- a ChronologicalOverviewRaluca Valeria RAŢIU, PhD Studentralucavaleriaratiu@gmail.comBabeș-Bolyai UniversityProfessor Adriana TIRON TUDOR, PhDadriana.tiron.tudor@gmail.comBabeș-Bolyai UniversityAbstractThe purpose of this paper is to offer a full perspective on the evolution in time ofgoodwill definitions. This paper is part of the research conducted in the doctoraldissertation and we consider it is very important to have a full understanding of the conceptstudied in order to develop on this subject. We use a chronological analysis and reviewdefinitions from the late 1800s until today. The definitions are given by prominent scholarsof the time, published in highly ranked journals and books or offered by internationalaccounting boards. We approach the definition from an accounting and a legal perspective.Our findings are that, in time, the definitions offered either improve on an old definition orare completely original. Some elements used to describe goodwill remain the samethroughout the whole period we studied. The conclusion of our study is that this type of intimeanalysis is beneficial to the researcher in the way that it offers a complete picture ofthe concept and its history.Key words: goodwill, definition, chronological, accounting, scholarJEL Code: M411. IntroductionGoodwill is one of the intangibles which have always been a constant problem ofaccountants and accountancy ever since its existence was first acknowledged in the 1880s.Many authors have since then defined the concept of goodwill (Dicksee&Tillyard, 1906,Seed, 1937, Gynther, 1969, Fess and Niswonger, 1981). It is interesting to observe that thedivergent opinions with regard to the definition of goodwill over time are also true aboutthe accounting treatment of goodwill worldwide today.Many questions which researchers raised about goodwill one hundred years agoare still being answered today, which represents a strong reason to study this topic, which ischallenging, current, ambitious and also important both to stakeholders and to the field ofresearch. This paper makes the first step in comprehending the meanings of goodwill asthey were conveyed in the last hundred years by the most esteemed accounting professorsor researchers of a certain time, and in the latest years by the international accountingboards which have a significant influence in accounting worldwide. Our study continuesthe study of Courtis(1983), but improves on that study by adding definitions from 1983 tothe present time, by including international accounting boards’ definitions alongsideacademic definitions alone, by linking the definitions to one another through the elementswhich we find similar. We consider our study to be important and useful to the field ofresearch because it gathers only the best, carefully selected definitions of goodwill, whichhave taken the test of time, offered only by outstanding academics, published in highly54Revista Română de Statistică – Supliment Trim IV/2012

anked journals or famous books which have become part of the accounting history, or byinfluential accounting boards, namely the International Accounting Standards Board andFinancial Accounting Standards Board.2. Literature reviewBy the end of the 19th and beginning of the 20th century, business combinationswere not very common, sole owners and family businesses were still the most spread typesof businesses on the market. Meanwhile, the only form of existing goodwill referred to thequality of the services or products offered and the reputation of the business or thecorrectness of the owner. Before accounting institutions were formed, individual writersand researchers of the time based their writing on personal experience and referred to legalcases in common law. One of the first authors to give a definition for goodwill that is stillpopular today was Professor L.R. Dicksee in the first book dedicated entirely to goodwill,“Goodwill and Its Treatment in Accounts” (1906). Goodwill he says, “is the benefit arisingfrom connection and reputation, the probability of old customers going to the new firmwhich has acquired the business” (cited by Courtis, 1973, p.3).Although there is no internationally accepted definition of goodwill from a legalperspective, Courtis (1973) identifies numerous cases in common law where definitionswere offered. One of the best legal perspectives was offered by Lord Macnaghten in 1901.He said goodwill “is the benefit and the advantage of the good name, reputation, andconnection of a business. It is the attractive force which brings in the custom... Goodwill iscomposed of a variety of elements. It differs in its composition in different trades and indifferent businesses in the same trade”. Macnaghten’s view of goodwill is strongly relatedto the elements which comprise it. The comprising elements of goodwill have been subjectto change over time, along with the creation of institutions or accounting bodies whichregulated their valuation.3. Research methodologyWe approach a chronological, qualitative overview of the definitions and theconceptualization of goodwill starting from the late years of the nineteenth century to thisday. By analyzing accounting writings and the legal encounters of the term goodwill weoffer a clarification of this concept and its nature. The diversity of definitions explaininggoodwill for more than a decade will inherently advance criticism about the substantiality,complexity or logic abiding when formulating these definitions. In order to prevent suchcriticism we only considered for this paper the definitions which were given by prominentscholars of the time, published in articles or books which proved their substantiality overtime, appeared in legal cases which are considered precedents, especially in the commonlawcountries and in the international accounting standards worldwide.In conducting this research, for the beginning of the period studied we used thefirst books which were published about goodwill. Dicksee published the first book ongoodwill in 1897, but we used the later, third edition, which was published in coauthorshipwith Tillyard in 1906. P.D. Leake published his valuation theory of goodwill in 1914, butfor our paper we used the later version republished in 1921. We also used journals whichare ranked in the Thompson Reuters (ISI) Web of Knowledge, especially for the periodafter 1900, when accounting journals were first indexed in this database. The most citedpapers were published in the following journals: The Accountant, which is the first journalof accountancy worldwide, ABACUS, Accounting Review and not least, The AccountingHistorians Journal, which was the sine qua non journal for this type of research.We consider the chronological content analysis conducted in the research of ourtopic to be important and adequate at the same time, because it is crucial to have a thoroughunderstanding of the evolution of goodwill in order to properly work with the conceptRevista Română de Statistică – Supliment Trim IV/2012 55

further along when demonstrating the importance of this intangible asset in investors’behavior on the market.4. Research findingsDefining goodwill is a process which has spread over a long period of time, fromthe late 1800’s until today, and has not yet found closure. The stretch over time and thecontinuity of this process was best explained by Hughes (1982), as cited by Bloom (2008):“...there was no one Truth and never will be. The origin of goodwill can be revealedthrough history, but its nature is a matter of personal interpretation.”The earliest reference to goodwill was cited by Leake (1921), “I gyue to JohnStephen …. My whole interest and good will of my Quarelle” (i.e. quarry) and goes back to1571. This citation does not give a definition of the term, but it proves it has beenacknowledged more than four centuries ago and it seems to be the oldest, most famousquote about goodwill researchers ever found.The oldest definition authors refer to appeared in Bithell’s “A Counting HouseDictionary” in 1882 as cited by Courtis (1983):“The advantage connected with an established business of good repute. A wellestablishedbusiness presents an expectation of profits to any one entering upon it, and isworth paying for. Anyone having such a business and who is willing to relinquish theexpectation of the business by transferring it for consideration to someone else can do so bywhat is technically called “selling the Goodwill of that business””.There are two important aspects in this definition which perpetuated over time:first, goodwill is viewed as an “advantage” and to this day the international accountingboards refer to goodwill as such and the second aspect is goodwill’s attribute of“expectation of profits” which is also part of its description today.In the first book ever written on goodwill, “Goodwill and Its Treatment inAccounts” Dicksee and Tillyard (1906) revise the most important legal cases of that time,which give definitions of goodwill, and summarize them into a very suggestive paragraph:“...where the locality of the business makes the trade, Goodwill as a disposable assetrepresents the advantage derived from the chance that customers will continue to frequentthe premises in which the business has been carried on; that where the business is onewhich depends upon the reputation of a firm, the Goodwill consists of the advantage whichthe owner (whether original or by assignment) derives from being allowed to representhimself as such; and that where the value of the business depends on its businessconnection, the Goodwill on sale consists of the right to be properly introduced to thoseconnections.”Again we find an element in this definition which remained constant over time: theadvantage associated to the concept of goodwill, derived from the location of the business,the reputation or brand significance, or the prior to the sale business connections.In 1921 the illustrious chartered accountant P.D. Leake publishes the second bookdedicated entirely to goodwill called “Commercial Goodwill. Its History, Value andTreatment in Accounts”, where he elaborates the “Super-profit Valuation Theory ofGoodwill”. He defines goodwill as:“...the right which grows out of all kinds of past effort in seeking profit, increase of value orother advantage... The exchangeable value of the right depends upon the probability ofearning future super-profit- the term “super-profit” meaning the amount by which revenue,increase of value, or other advantage received exceeds any and all economic expenditureincidental to its production”.The main idea of Leake’s theory is that the value of commercial goodwill is thecurrent value of a super-profit which diminishes annually on a straight line pattern. He also56Revista Română de Statistică – Supliment Trim IV/2012

identifies the “advantage” associated to goodwill which results from the difference betweenrevenue and expenditure incurred in obtaining that revenue.For the first time, in 1937, H.D. Seed relates goodwill to law associated with itscomponents- namely trade names, trademarks, patents or copyrights. He develops the thesisthat goodwill should only be valued in association to the valuation of the whole business.The influence of his predecessors is evident in the qualities Seed attributes to goodwillwhen defining it:“The advantage which arises from the good name, reputation and connections of a business;alternatively, the benefit which accrues to the owner of a business from the likelihood thatsuch business will earn, in the future, profits in excess of those required to provide aneconomic rate of remuneration for the capital and labor employed therein.”In 1946, in an attempt to probably express the frustration of some writers to findthe best definition for goodwill, Harry Norris, in his book “Accounting Theory. An Outlineof Its Structure”, as cited by Courtis (1983), brings a little true humor into the definition ofgoodwill:“If X is a live pedigree dog, and Y a dead one, then perhaps X-Y=Z. But Z doesn’t meananything in itself. The label ‘goodwill’ in business accounts closely resembles Z; its use isas sensible as trying to find what makes a dog tick by dissecting it.”What Norris probably means is that what gives value to goodwill are precisely itscomponents, which cannot be valued separately, therefore are all included under the nameof goodwill. Even though a funny definition, the truth behind it still emerges to the surfacetoday, when accountants admit that the notion of goodwill contains elements which cannotbe separately valued as assets.In 1969, Gynther approaches the definition of goodwill in a way that is still validtoday, and this validation in time of his definition makes it, in our opinion, one of the mostconvincing definitions we managed to find in our research. Gynther (1969) admits thatgoodwill has been a “thorny problem” of accountants over time and the motive for that maybe the fact that the real definition has been replaced by just means of calculation forgoodwill. He says:“Goodwill exists because assets are presented, even though they are not lined with thetangible assets. For example “special skill and knowledge”, “high managerial ability”,“monopolistic situation”, “social and business connections”, “good name and reputation”,“favorable situation”, “excellent staff”, “trade names”, “established clientele” are assets inthis category. The sum of the value of these assets...is the value of Goodwill”.The list of the elements which form goodwill that Gynther mentions is definitelynot an exhaustive one, but our attention will be directed to those elements in anotherresearch paper. He draws attention to an aspect that is still troubling accountants today,what is the value of goodwill and what does components does it encompass?In 1975, Gibson and Francis are among the first researchers to define goodwillwith connection to consolidation:“Goodwill on consolidation is the term used to describe the excess of the cost of investmentin subsidiaries over the book value of the equity acquired.”In 1981, Fess and Niswonger, define goodwill with relation to the higher rate ofreturn it can bring in a business combination:“Its (goodwill’s) existence is evidenced by the ability of the business to earn a rate of returnon the investment that is in excess of the normal rate for other firms in the same line ofbusiness.”In 1981, when the International Accounting Standard Committee exposed its firstdraft for ED22 Accounting for Business Combinations, they defined goodwill as “theRevista Română de Statistică – Supliment Trim IV/2012 57

excess of the purchase price over the assigned values of the net identifiable assetsacquired.”In 1983, the International Standard Committee issues IAS 22 Accounting forBusiness Combinations, where goodwill is defined as “the future benefits fromunidentifiable assets”.In 2010, the International Accounting Standards Board issued the InternationalFinancial Reporting Standard 3 Business Combinations and replaced IAS 22. IFRS 3defines goodwill as: “future economic benefits arising from assets that are not capable ofbeing individually identified and separately recognized”. The definition confirms that thevalue of the business as a whole is bigger than the sum of the accountable and identifiablenet assets. More important however than this descriptive definition, the IFRS 3 definesgoodwill by means of how it should be measured: ”Consideration transferred to obtaincontrol plus Amount of non-controlling interest (using either option) plus Fair value ofpreviously-held equity interest less Fair value of the identifiable net assets of the acquiree(100%)” (Paragraph 32, under IFRS 3 Revised 2008 (IFRS 3R)).The Financial Accounting Standards Board issued the Status of Statement No. 142,SFAS 142, Goodwill and Other Intangible Assets in 2001 and in 2007 SFAS 142 Revisedwhere they define goodwill through how it is measured: “the aggregate fair value ofpurchase consideration, any non-controlling interests in the target company, and any equityinterests in the target company already held by the acquirer on the transaction date less thenet fair value of identifiable assets acquired and liabilities assumed in the businesscombination”. The very similar definition of goodwill offered by the FASB to the oneoffered by the IASB is explained by the convergence process both institutions signed upfor.From a legal perspective, until today, no international legal or financial institutionhas published an act or another legal form of regulation with regard to goodwill. In manycommon-law countries, some trials have been considered important precedents to othersand many accounting related trials mentioned goodwill. By large, over the last hundredyears we studied, what most cases referred to in connection to goodwill, was in factconnected to its components. The location of the business, the social and businessconnections, trademarks, copyrights, patents, skilled workers, the quality of the services orproducts sold, the customer loyalty, the reputation of the business were all subject to trial.Legal opinions with regard to goodwill also highlight the importance of the element ofadvantage which we identified in almost every definition accountants give of this term.Even if there is no Goodwill Law, to be sanctioned internationally, in 1967, theWorld Intellectual Property Organization is formed, who, in its own words “is dedicated tothe use of intellectual property (patents, copyrights, trademarks, designs, etc.) as means ofstimulating innovation and creativity”, in a fair manner and with respect to the regulationsof this worldwide organization. The importance of this institution to goodwill has proved tobe crucial in time, because all the intellectual property elements mentioned above, whichwere prior to this included in goodwill, had now grounds to be valued on their own and notbe considered goodwill components anymore.Another milestone in close connection to the definition and components ofgoodwill happened in 1990, when the Swedish company Skandia, for the first time, gavemeaning and draw a clear perspective of the concept of intellectual capital, which is a majorcomponent of goodwill. Until today, the intellectual capital is not accounted for separately,but there is an international interest, both in business and in academic research of how itcould become an independent intangible asset. When this happens, goodwill will be short58Revista Română de Statistică – Supliment Trim IV/2012

of one more important element, and its accounting value will drastically drop, meaning itsvalue won’t be as significant to the business as it is today.5. ConclusionsThe purpose of this paper is to offer an overview of goodwill definitions, goingback for longer than a century and to understand how goodwill evolved, through thedefinitions given by academics, professional bodies of accountancy and courts of law. Wehave covered mostly accounting definitions and legal opinions.Our findings indicate that goodwill has been defined over time in two differentways: by academics who indicated mostly the elements comprising goodwill and itscharacteristics and by the international accounting boards which define goodwill throughthe way it is measured. The most common characteristic which we encountered was theadvantage brought by goodwill in a business combination, which is the only constantcharacteristic mentioned both by academics and institutions over time.This study is the result of a chronological qualitative analysis of the concept ofgoodwill and it brings novelty to the literature by improving on existing studies dating in1980s, and completing them to the day.This study is extremely useful to both academics and professionals who want touse a brief but comprehensive analysis of goodwill definitions. The authors wish tocontinue this study with a similar chronological analysis of goodwill components and theaccounting treatment of goodwill.References[1]. Bithell, R., “A Counting House Dictionary”, London: George Routledge and Sons,1882[2]. Bloom, M., “Double Accounting for Goodwill- a Problem Redefined”, Routledge,2008[3]. Courtis, John K., “Business Goodwill: Conceptual Clarification via Accounting, Legaland Etymological Perspectives”, The Accounting Historians Journal, Vol. 10, No. 2, p.1-38, 1983[4]. Dicksee, Lawrence R., Tillyard, Frank, “Goodwill and Its Treatment in Accounts”, Geeand Co., Printers and Publishers, Third Edition, 1906, p.33[5]. Gibson, R., Francis J., “Accounting for goodwill- A Study of Permissiveness”, Abacus,December 1975[6]. Gynther, Reg. S., “Some Conceptualizing on Goodwill”, Accounting Review, April1969, p.247-255[7]. Fess, P., Niswonger, C., “Accounting Principles”, Cincinnati: South-WesternPublishing Co., 13th edition, 1981[8]. Hughes H.P., “Goodwill in Accounting”, Business Publishing Division, College ofBusiness Administration, Georgia State University, 1982[9]. Leake, P.D., “Commercial Goodwill. Its History, Value and Treatment in Accounts”,1921[10]. Norris, Harry, “Accounting Theory. An Outline of Its Structure”, London: SirIsaac Pitman&Sons, 1946[11]. Seed, H.E., “Goodwill as a Business Asset”, London: Gee&Co, 1937[12]. www.iasb.com[13]. www.fasb.comRevista Română de Statistică – Supliment Trim IV/2012 59

The Analysis of the Capital Market EfficiencyProfessor Gabriela-Victoria ANGHELACHE, PhDgabriela.anghelache@gmail.comAndreea NEGRU (CIOBANU), PhD StudentCătălina Claudia SAVA, PhD StudentAcademy of Economic Studies, BucharestAbstractThe efficiency of the capital market aims the relation existing between themechanism of the market prices forming and the existing information on the market at therespective moment. According to the theory of the years '60, a market may be considered asefficient if the prices of the transacted financial assets on the market incorporate entirelythe available information, either public or private. The efficiency of the capital market is asine qua non condition for the efficient allocation of the capitals within the economy andrepresents a fundamental hypothesis of the classical methods of the evaluation of thefinancial assets (Markowitz, CAPM etc).Key words: capital market, efficiency, portofolio, Treynor-Black model ,placementJEL Classification: G14The themes of the market efficiency has been approached by numerous researchersof caliber, among them mentioning the names of E. Fama, L. Fisher, R. Roii, M. Jensen orL. Blume.Thaler (2009) suggests that the hypothesis of the efficient markets has twocomponents: the price is correct and there are no arbitrage opportunities, and analyses bothof them starting from empirical observations.Stricto sensu, the first hypothesis, i.e. the price is correct, suggests the fact that theprices of the financial assets must reflect the all available information and adjust themselvesinstantaneously in order to incorporate entirely and faithfully any new information. Thalerdefines the information as the sum between the present available information and theexpected information (for instance, the analysts’ expectations as regards the potentialmerges of companies).The hypothesis of the lack of arbitrage opportunities implies the fact that noinvestor can generate in a steadiness manner profits in excess as against the market of therespective asset (assets). Since the information is entirely and faithfully incorporated in theprices of the financial assets, the changes of the market quotations (as well as the sense ofthese changes) depends on the new information entering the market, only. As the newinformation enter the market in an aleatory manner, the prices fluctuations will be alsoaleatory, which implies the impossibility “to be approaching the market” constantly.The Treynor-Black model of analysis of the efficiency of the capital marketsThe Treynor-Black model represents a framework for optimizing the investmentportfolios that combines the market inefficiency with the active portfolio management.This model is based on the premise that the markets are almost efficient, in the sense thatthe number of over and under-evaluated assets on the market is limited. The model aims to60Revista Română de Statistică – Supliment Trim IV/2012

constitute an optimum risky portfolio allocated between the market portfolio of the CAPMmodel (passively managed portfolio) and an actively managed asset, composed of assetsassumed to be incorrectly evaluated on the market. Of course, to the extent the capitalmarket moves away from the equilibrium, the role of the actively managed portfoliobecomes more and more important.The main steps in the algorithm of the Treynor-Black model are the following: / -The development of the expectations regarding the evolution (in terms of the dualityefficiency-risk) of the passively managed portfolio – the portfolio of the market M;- The identification of the limited number of incorrect assets evaluated on themarket, namely those assets for which the coefficients a record high positive or negativevalues. The coefficient a is defined as the difference between the estimated yield of afinancial asset and the expected profitableness of this one, according to:The setting up of the weights for the assets incorrectly evaluated by the market inthe actively managed portfolio (noted by A). The weight w; of an asset of doesn’t matterwhat value from the structure of the portfolio A, is given by the following expression:,where n is the number of assets incorrectly evaluated and o (ek) represents the nonsystematic(specific) of the asset k.To note the fact that Treynor-Black model brings into prominence the coefficienta (the abnormal expected performance) and the specific risk of the equities. High weightsare associated to the equities of high (either positive or negative) values of the coefficient aand with low specific risk, while the model is penalizing the equities characterized by a bignon-systematic risk due to the elimination, in this way, of the benefic impact of thediversification on the portfolio. According to the Treynor-Black model, the weights of theequities in the active portfolio A will be:- reduced for the financial assets characterized by high a and high specific risk;- considerable for the financial assets characterized by high a and low specificrisk;- positive (long positions) for assets with a bigger than zero;- negative (short positions) for assets with a smaller than zero.The forming of the optimum portfolio P by allocating the placements between theactive portfolio A and the market portfolio (passive) M.The portfolio P presumes those proportions of the portfolios A and M for which itsSharpe ratio RSP) is maximized, where RSP is defined by:namely, the excess of the expected profitableness( as against the risk-free asset) per unit ofundertaken risk. In fact, this is the market price of the risk related to the optimum portfolioP.The following graph illustrates the border of the efficient portfolios and theoptimum portfolio P for an investor:Revista Română de Statistică – Supliment Trim IV/2012 61

The line of the capital market, the Markowitz efficient border and the portfolio P for acertain investorTo note the way in which the Treynor-Black model is utilizing the modern theoryof the portfolio initially developed by H. Markowitz. Particularly, the optimum portfolio Prepresents the tangent point between the fundamental line of the capital market for aninvestor and the Markowitz efficient border (curve MA). The previous graph shows thefact that the portfolio of the market M may be “approached” by allocating the funds to theasset a, which is equivalent with saying that: RSP>RSMThe setting up of that proportion of allocation of capital between the portfolio Pand the risk-free asset is that satisfying the degree of the investor’s aversion to risk. Theoptimum investment (combination between Rf and P) is represented graphically as thetangent point of the market line with the indifference curve of the investor, as shown by thefigure bellowThe optimum allocation of the funds between the portfolio P and the risk-freeasset in the frame of the Treynor-Black model62Revista Română de Statistică – Supliment Trim IV/2012

The comparative evaluation of the performanceThe improvement in performance comparatively with the portfolio M can beestablished as a difference between the Sharpe ratios of the two portfolios, being easy todemonstrate that the outcome equals to:which represents the informational proportion of the actively managed asset A. Thus, theTreynor-Black model supplies a formal framework for the portfolio management, whichanalyses the erroneous evaluation of the financial assets, perceived by the market operatorsand exploits it through techniques of active management of portfolio, maintainingmeantime a well diversified portfolio (the portfolio P) that combines the market diversifiedindex M and the actively managed portfolio A) for an investor.If the capital market is efficient, the coefficients a are null and the activemanagement of the portfolio brings no benefit to the investor. According to the Treynor-Black model, during such periods the investors allocate their funds in an optimal manner,between the risk-free asset and the market index M.On the contrary, when the markets become inefficient, some of the available assetsare erroneously evaluated and the related coefficients a are no more null. In addition, if abig number of equities become incorrectly evaluated, the active portfolio A contains a largenumber of equities which implies not only the fact that it will have a high coefficient a but– on the ground of the diversification – it will have also a low specific risk, making thusthat the potential benefits of the active management of portfolio are significant during theperiods of the market inefficiency. According to the Treynor-Black model, during suchperiods, the active managed portfolios will hold substantial weights within the overallplacements of the investors.References[1]. Anghelache, G.V., (2004) – „Piaţa de capital. Caracteristici.Evoluţii.Tranziţii”,Editura Economică[2]. Lintner, J. (1965) – „The valuation of risk assets and the selection of risky investmentsin stock portofolios and capital budgets”, Review of Economics and Statistics 47, 13-27.[3]. Markowitz, H.M. (1952) – „Portofolio Selection”, The Journal of Finance 7, 77-91[4]. Mossin, J. (1966) – „Equilibrium in a Capital Asset Market”, Econometrica Vol. 34,No. 4, 768-783.[5]. Sharpe, W. (1964) – „Capital asset prices: A theory of market equilibrium underconditions of risk”, Journal of Finance 19, 425-442.[6]. Treynor, J. (1962)- „Toward a Theory of Market Value of Risky Assets”, Unpublishedmanuscris.Revista Română de Statistică – Supliment Trim IV/2012 63

Some Considerations regarding Strategy andStrategic Management in Romanian InsuranceSectorLecturer Cristina PROTOPOPESCU PhDcristinaelenaprotopopescu@yahoo.comSenior Lecturer Anca-Mihaela TEAU PhDanca.teau@yahoo.comSenior Lecturer Sorin Gabriel GRESOI PhDsoringresoi@yahoo.com“Artifex” University of BucharestAbstractOver the last decade, the external environment of insurance sector hadsignificantly changed, becoming very instable and complex. In these circumstances, webelieve that the proper managerial approach, not only for anticipating the future problems,opportunities and threats but also to improve profitability, is the strategic management. Inthis paper we present the concept of strategy and the differences between strategy andstrategic management. We also present a strategic management model for insurancecompanies, based on a few important stages: substantion of the strategic managementmodel, development and implementation of the strategic management model and evaluationand control of the performances of the strategic management model. Based on „Strategicmanagement” book, written by Ion Popa, this model is adapted for the insurancecompanies operating on our local insurance market.Key words: strategy, strategic management, insurance company, performanceJEL Classification: L22Due to the unstable and complex environment in which insurance companiesactivate, dealing with a large number of risks related to their main activities and othereconomic agents risks, it is obvious that we need to identify and also take into considerationthe external influences, to value opportunities and to avoid possible threats. This is possibleby promoting and using the strategic management approach.The concept of strategy had been used for the first time in the management theoryand practice in the sixth decade of the 20 th century. Little by little, a new approachappeared, called „Strategic Management”, which imposed the concept of strategy as its keyelement.In the economic literature there are a lot of definitions and approaches for strategyand strategic management. Ovidiu Nicolescu and Ion Verboncu define strategy as „theensemble of an organization’s major long term goals, the main approaches for achievingthem, together with the resources allocated in order to obtain the competitive advantageaccording to the mission of the organization”.The major components of a strategy are: mission, fundamental objectives, strategicoptions, resources, deadlines and competitive advantage.64Revista Română de Statistică – Supliment Trim IV/2012

In the process of establishing its strategy, an insurance company must take intoconsideration a series of factors such as company’s resources and capabilities, the internaland external environment in order to obtain positive results and to minimize the negativeconsequences of them. The Romanian insurance market has a very high potential forgrowing and development but this potential is influenced by the economic evolution of ourcountry and by the level of public awareness for insurance need. Also, when we talk aboutthe insurance market, we must talk about the intense regulation and supervision.Nowadays, one important trend in management is to overcome the stage ofelaborating and implementing a simple strategy and move towards a more complex processcalled strategic management. In fact, what is strategic management and which are thedifferences between strategy and strategic management? Is it possible to be only a moresophisticated name for strategy?In economic literature, there are a lot of approaches for strategic management,different points of view, but many authors consider that strategic management implies aseries of actions, starting with the analysis of company’s competitive environment and withthe establishing of its strategic mission and ending with the appraisal of the performanceachieved by applying the strategy and, if necessary, with a reconsideration and changing therespective strategy.Ion Popa considers that strategic management is a new management approachbased on strategy, used by managers to insure the long term evolution and performance ofthe organization, with a proper strategy development, a systemic and effectiveimplementation, as well as an on-going assessment of it.Strategic management represents more than organizational strategy, is a processthat implies a permanent reconsideration and adjustment of those management decisionswhich influence the company’s future.Hereinafter we present a strategic management model for insurance companiesbased on the „Strategic management” book, written by Ion Popa.The strategic management model represents a complex process of forecasting acompany’s future, long-term evolution, in which development of the strategy, itsimplementation, assessment and on-going control blend together and complete each otherin a continuous, dynamic and iterative flow. This model requires not only the determinationof the market position of the insurance company, but also of the future position of thecompany pursues, meaning to go beyond the plain analysis and forecast the evolution of allfactors that could impact on the insurance company.The strategic management model requires going through a series of stages:1. Substantion of the strategic management model. The management practice andtheory reveal that in order to „produce” rational strategies and politics with significanteconomic effects, it is necessary to know and take into consideration a set of essentialelements called assumptions of the strategic management model. For the insurancecompanies, these assumptions are:- Taking into consideration of the life-circle of the insurance company.Each stage of this life-circle implies different problems and challengesand thus, different decisions and actions.- Selection of the model according to type of insurance policies: lifeinsurance and non-life insurance. The insurance companies offering longtailpolicies are confronting with significant different problems than thosecompanies offering short-tail products. The short, medium and long-termoperational and decisional solutions are completely different for eachtype of insurance products.Revista Română de Statistică – Supliment Trim IV/2012 65

- Consideration of the stakeholders of insurance company: shareholders,policyholders, employees, managers, reinsurers, banks, insurancesupervisory commission.- Differentioation of the model according to the specific features of theinsurance industry and to the development of the insurance market.- Continuity of development and application of the strategic managementmodel- Systemic approach of the development and implementation of the model- Flexibility of the strategic management model- Internationalization and globalization of economic activities- International transfer of managerial know-how- The substantion of the strategic management model requires informationfrom diagnosis research studies, competitive environment analyses,forecasting studies, market research studies and environmental researchstudies.2. Development of the strategic management model. In this stage managers mustestablish the insurance company’s mission, determine the strategic objectives together withthe strategic options, determine the resources employed in attaining the objectives, settingthe intermediate and final time limits for achieving objectives and also establish the sourcesfor competitive advantage. At this level it is also required to put together all the aforementionedelements in order to design the company’s global strategy. Then managers mustestablish the partial strategies and the global politics for the insurance companies.3. Implementation of the strategic management model. As part of the strategicmanagement process, the implementation of the strategy follows the stages ofsubstantiation and development of the strategy. Moving from one stage to the other impliesdeep changes in the nature and content of the strategic approach: its specific intellectual,informational, decision-making, reflective and analytical character, the strategic vision andentrepreneurial thinking that feature the stage of developing the strategic model arereplaced by actions and experimenting in the real context of company’s business that, mostof the times, is defined by conflicts, adverse reactions, rejections of the change the strategicmodel introduces, struggle of interests, failure to understand the meaning of change,accidental or deliberate errors.In order to assure the success of strategic model implementation it is necessaryfirst to prepare the internal climate of the insurance company, to provide the technical,material, human, financial and information resources4. Evaluation and control of the performances of the strategic management model.The strategic management model brings a lot of advantages which enhance thequality of the management process, the insurance companies’ competitiveness and theirabilities to adapt to new demands and challenges. The most visible advantage of thestrategic management model is, when is exercised in the right manner, a significantimprovement of the economic and financial results of the company, a rapid growth andconsolidation of the market position, as well as a noticeable enhancement of itscompetitiveness.Corneliu Russu in his „Management strategic” identified some specific features ofhighly competitive companies. These features show that most of them could be included inthe scope of philosophy, key coordinates and priority action lines specific to strategicmanagement:66Revista Română de Statistică – Supliment Trim IV/2012

Clear top management vision regarding the directions to follow and the objectivesof the future activity, constant perspective thinking, and focus on future concerns ratherthan on day-to-day activities.Advanced customer-relations management skills, anticipation of the market trends,aggressive search for new opportunities.The company’s management gives priority to obtaining the competitive advantage,seen as the key element underlying profitability and the achievement of a stable long-termposition for the company. Availability of a strategic action plan aimed at obtaining superioreconomic and financial performances and a sound competitive position.Management by results, based on a close relation between individual performancesand individual rewards. Direct and deep involvement of the company’s management increating the internal conditions for successful application of the establish strategy, in itsimplementation and on-going control of the results generated by the relevant strategy.Managers display strong entrepreneurial spirit, they are genuine „strategicthinkers”, focused on satisfying customers’ requirements, benefiting from any newopportunuty, strengthening the competitive advantage. They have the ability to develop acoherent strategic plan to solve such issues.Sometimes, despite all its advantages, the strategic management model has certainlimitation, such as: the activities related to developing the model are time-consuming; whenthe degree of participation is low, the subordinates may feel disappointed by the strategicalternatives.In conclusion, strategic management can be an important approach for insurancecompanies facing a complex and unstable environment to obtain higher performance andcompetitiveness.References[1]. Nicolescu, O., Verboncu, I. (2009) Managerial methodologies, Universitara PublishingHouse[2]. Popa, I. (2004) Strategic Management, Economic Publishing House[3]. Protopopescu, C (2009) Managerial Approaches for Increasing Performances in Caseof Insurance and Reinsurance Companies, Doctoral Thesis[4]. Russu, C. (1999) Strategic Management, All Beck Publishing House[5]. Verboncu, I., Zalman, M. (2005) Management and Performances, Bucureşti:Universitara Publishing House[6]. Ion Verboncu, Cristina Protopopescu, Management Reengineering of the OrganizationUnder the Economic Crisis, 6 th International Conference on the Management ofTechnological Changes (MTC 2009), 3-5 sep 2009, Alexandroupolis, GreeceRevista Română de Statistică – Supliment Trim IV/2012 67

Innovation Trends in the EU Food IndustryUniv. Lecturer Alexandru BURDA, PhDalex.burda@mail.com“Dimitrie Cantemir” Christian UniversityFaculty of Tourism and Commercial ManagementBucharest, RomaniaAbstractFaced with significant changes and mutations at consumer level, the EU foodmarket finds itself in a position in which it has to function by rules that could be considered“non-specific”. From a traditionally inelastic market, it has gradually become a consumermarket on which the producers have to innovate constantly in order to meet the demands ofconsumers who are in search of new foods that would have new properties and wouldsatisfy superior needs. Therefore, innovation is a must for the industrial food producers’economic future.Key words: consumer, food stuff, innovation, industry, quality.JEL Classification: L66, Q18IntroductionThe European trends in food production take a large series of phenomena intoconsideration. They can be grouped into four fundamental and scientifically andeconomically significant directions, namely (1) developing quality implementation andmonitoring mechanisms; (2) innovation in food industry; (3) developing new agriculturalproduction systems; and (4) renewing the food offer.Innovation in food industry is a process the most important developments of whichare the involvement of research in producing foods and developing new ones, and the useof new methods for preserving, packaging and labeling food products.This paper will refer mainly to the innovation trends in food industry, with aspecial focus on (a) the tendencies in research & development; and (b) new foodpreservation methods.1. Research & development in industrial innovationThe main trend (Monnier 2007, 51) in this area of EU food industry is theincreasing role of the consumer in industrial innovation, especially in new product conceptdevelopment. To reduce the subsequent risks of the consumers’ food preferences is one ofthe main concerns of the large food producing companies of the EU when they seek tolaunch new products. They use marketing for this purpose and the procedure they usuallyapply has several main stages, namely (Monnier 2007, 51) (1) basic concept testing; (2)prototype development; (3) preliminary testing, and (4) secondary testing.The basic concept testing (1) is a poll that presents a targeted consumer group withthe project of a new product or new product line in an attempt to establish what theconsumer might expect from it in point of its objective and subjective features. Generallyspeaking, this test implies interrogating select groups of consumers who know nothingabout the tested product about a series of features that are considered to be more relevant inthe subsequent selection and acquisition processes.68Revista Română de Statistică – Supliment Trim IV/2012

Prototype development (2): the information provided by the basic concept testingcan help build a prototype of the respective product. This prototype functions as apreliminary blueprint the producers can use to further develop the product.Preliminary testing (3) is a first organoleptic assessment of the “prototype”product by experts, in laboratory. Marks are given to each main property, which allowsexperts to define and compare the organoleptic properties.Secondary testing (4) is a second organoleptic assessment of the product whichwas modified according to the results of the previous stage. It is conducted among newrelatively large select consumer groups. The tendency is to create testing conditions that areas close as possible to real consumption conditions (samples of the tested product aredistributed to the consumers who test them at home. The results are gathered one weeklater.)Finally, the producer is the one to have the last word by selecting the average sumof the properties of the future product, starting from the results of the last test, hence thetendency for foods to have apparently weak organoleptic features. Thus, without reducingthe consumers’ contribution (the selection starts from the values of the properties theyprovided), the producer eliminates a major source of risk for the product to be rejected ashe/she preserves only those features that are likely to accommodate the largest pool ofconsumers.1.1.Considering Food Consumption StyleIt is a European trend in increasing the weight of consumer influence over the foodinnovation process and it has not been deemed a priority until recently. (Monnier 2007, 52).Understanding the consumption style means to identify the food habits of variouscategories of consumers.1.2.Faster Food ConsumptionIt is a third European trend and it is closely connected to the current profile of theEU consumer (Monnier 2007, 53). The producers respond to this trend by (1) extending thefood validity period (the target is the consumer who purchases food at larger timeintervals), (2) reducing the time necessary to prepare the food, (3) eliminating the need touse dishes (by marketing the food in disposable containers) and/or (4) selling food insmaller shares (for individual consumption, regardless of the place and time ofconsumption).1.3.Consumer Health ConcernsThis phenomenon emerged in the 1980s with the no-sugar and no-alcoholbeverages. They were then followed by food with a specific content of minerals ofvitamins. Lately, consumers propose ever more often products the ingredients of whichcould help to prevent diseases, and would have properties that could be used in cures, keepthe body fit or even have cosmetic effects.1.4.Directly Assessing The Properties Of The Food ProductIncreasing the consumer’s possibility to directly assess the properties of the foodproduct, based on one’s senses, prior to consumption, it is a fifth important trend andalthough it is not directly connected to the consumer’s option, it directly influences him/herin selecting food products. This trend leads to the importance packaging has lately acquiredas well as that of the correspondence between the expected properties of taste, flavor, smell,and aspect and the color the products or their packaging can have.1.5.Other TrendsBeside these five trends, we can also add the role of advertising in thecommunication between producers and consumers. In order to reduce risks, the producersdo not directly and clearly advertise the new properties a food product can have lest theyRevista Română de Statistică – Supliment Trim IV/2012 69

create a feeling of rejection. Even in the case of new foods, they still refer to properties andcomparisons to properties the consumers know (they even refer to tradition, regional andnational particularities, natural aspect, etc.) to make the people buy the respective product.2. New food preservation methodsFresh food is generally threatened by two main categories of altering factors:micro-organisms that degrade the product and the enzymes which accelerate the chemicaldegradation reactions. The best methods to slow down the action of the latter arerefrigeration and rapid freezing (under -18° C), while pasteurization is mainly used toeliminate micro-organisms. As it implies heating the products, its side effect is themodification of taste as the aromatic molecules are sensitive to temperature. In order tosolve this shortcoming, producers today use rapid pasteurization to 95 – 98° C (instead of80 – 95° C) in just 10 seconds, followed by an instantaneous cooling of the product. Yet,this method too has a weak point as it cannot be used to disinfect low or no-acid productssuch as milk and certain vegetables (beans, potatoes, etc.) which also contain spores. Intheir case, the only effective method used to date is sterilization, which has negative effectsas a result of high temperature.In order to remove the faults of the two high temperature-based methods,producers are currently developing and using new methods such as (Constans, Pasteur atrouve ses maitres 2007, 94) high pressure food preservation and pulsed electric fieldprocessing.2.1 High Pressure Food PreservationIt is a method that allows the preservation of fruit and vegetable fresh juices, aswell as deli meats, fish and seafood. According to this method, the product to be preservedis first packed in vacuum and then placed into a water-filled container; a pump is used tocreate a pressure of 2,000 to 6,000 bars, i.e. the same pressure felt at a depth of 20 to 60 kmin the ocean. Because pressure affects the entire product instantaneously, its onlymodification is a slight change in volume (approximately 15% at 6,000 bars), but it doesnot lose its shape. Bacteria are completely disabled as the method is based on abiosis.The foods that cannot be subjected to this method are those that contain air such asbread or the high-acidic ones that cannot be correctly stored in vacuum such as salad orvegetable and fruit mix. The most important advantages of this method are (1) the completedestruction of micro-organisms by destructing their cell membrane following thecrystallization of lipids at room temperature; (2) the preservation of the food’s taste as thefresh ones cannot be told apart from foods thus processed; (3) the preservation of strongchemical bonds as vitamins and aromatic substances are not affected; and (4) thedisablement of enzymes in certain situations as some proteins are altered.As for the minuses, they include first of all the need to fine tune the intensity atwhich the method is applied as molds are usually easier to remove and most bacteria arekilled at pressures exceeding 4,000 bars. On the other hand, micro-organisms such asListeria (deli meats, cheeses, etc.) or sporulating bacteria need a pressure of 6,000 bars.Secondly, the method can cause protein denaturation leading to strange results (hard eggswithout boiling) or economically non-beneficial (the meat turns brown thus losing itscommercial aspect although the taste is preserved). Although its principle is not new (itemerged as early as the 19 th century), high pressure processing was practically developed inthe 1990s once scientists developed containers strong enough to withstand the necessarypressure.2.2 Pulsed Electric Field ProcessingIt is a preservation method more recent (Constans, Pasteur a trouve ses maitres2007, 95) than high pressure processing and relies on the principle that bacteria can be70Revista Română de Statistică – Supliment Trim IV/2012

emoved by using a high enough voltage. The foods that are to be preserved are processedusing an electric field with a voltage of 18,000 to 40,000 volts per centimeter. The exposureto electricity lasts from 1/10 6 to 1/10 9 of a second (a longer time risks heating the product).For the time being, the only foods that can be thus processed are homogenous liquids thathave no gas bubbles or large particles.The most important pluses of this method are the complete elimination of microorganismsas their cell membrane is destroyed (its molecules are tore apart anddisorganized in the process), the preservation of taste, the preservation of strong and weakchemical bonds, i.e. a very low protein denaturation.As for the minuses of the method, it is worth mentioning the need to adjust thepulsed electric field by changing the voltage or the frequency of electric shocks because ofthe various endurance levels of different micro-organisms, as well as a slight reduction ofthe vitamin C content.2.3 Outlook on UseFor all the advantages they have relative to pasteurization, the two methods willnot yet replace it in the near future but rather supplement it. As a matter of fact, they can bevery well used in combination with it in order to eliminate the micro-organisms and sporesthat cannot be removed by short-time heating. For instance, pasteurization at 65 – 70° Ccombined with pulsed electric field processing for less than a second allows producers toreduce E. coli as 5-minute 75° C pasteurization would do while having much lower effectson taste.Moreover, these methods remain at the stage of trend due to other – moressignificant – obstacles (Constans, Pasteur a trouve ses maitres 2007, 96). First of all, highcosts: as they imply the use of new technologies, the implementation and installation costscan sometimes be very high, especially for small and medium sized enterprises (up to €500,000 per industrial container). Secondly, the crises in the agricultural and food sectorhave caused producers and sometimes consumers to be reluctant when it comes to newtechnologies. Last but not least, the EU legislation, through the 1997 “Novel Food”regulation of the European Parliament and European Council, makes it mandatory forproducers to apply for and obtain a pre-market authorization if they want to marketproducts that were processed by using whatever new technology. If they use a newprocedure, the resulting product must be safe and similar to the one it replaces meaning thatits normal consumption does not cause any nutritional inconvenience. These requirementsneed micro-biological analyses and specific tests especially considering that in the case ofhigh pressure, for instance, although the possibility for this to happen is almost zero, somematerial may transfer from the packaging structure to that of the product. However, evendespite these constraints, the two methods start being used in the European food processing;the number of high pressure installations has risen from 9 in 1996 to 20 today.We can also mention the increasing development and use of other non-invasivemethods that have no side effects on nutritional properties relative to pasteurization andsterilization, such as micro-filtration and irradiation. The latter has similar effects tosterilization and does not damage the nutritional qualities of the products. Nevertheless, it isnot yet widely accepted because we are not yet aware of its possible side effects, especiallyfor consumer health.ConclusionsTherefore, the trends in food production innovation follow three major paths. Firstof all, the producers seek to provide the best suitable answer to the consumers’requirements by finding solutions to communicate with them and to improve theRevista Română de Statistică – Supliment Trim IV/2012 71

consumption conditions considering the requirements about the way the products areconsumed in relation to the consumers’ view of the product and their relationship with it.Secondly, the producers are in search of new technical solutions to preserve foodsthat would accommodate both the need to retain as much of the product properties aspossible and the need to continue reducing the production and processing costs.Furthermore, finding new preservation methods also meets the consumers’ concern aboutthe way the shelf life of the products is extended.As a whole, the tendencies in innovation in the EU food industry marks theadaptation of the producers to a constantly changing food market amid a growingsatisfaction of consumer needs coupled with external factors such as the current economiccrisis which has a direct impact on the consumers’ capacity to give an economic answer tothe food producers of the EU food industry.References[1]. Adams, M. R.; Moss, M. O. (2007), Food Microbiology, New Age International,Delhi.[2]. Brown, Amy Christian, (2007), Understanding Food: Principles and Preparation (3ed.), Cengage Learning.[3]. Burda, Alexandru, (2008), “Calitatea produselor alimentare - definire conceptuală şilegală în procesul de integrare a pieţei alimentare româneşti în cadrul pieţeicomunitare. România”, Uniunea Europeană. De la aderare la integrare, EdituraProUniversitaria, Bucureşti.[4]. Constans, Nicolas, (2007), Pasteur a trouve ses maitres, Science & Vie – Hors Serie,(trimestrial), 238, pp. 92-97.[5]. Constans, Nicolas, (2007), Des produits sous protection rapprochée, Science & Vie –Hors Serie (trimestrial), 238, pp. 98-101.[6]. Glavieux Vincent, Les nouveaux aliments en 6 questions, în Les dossiers de laRecherche, nr. 45, octombrie 2011, pp. 82-85.[7]. Hendrickx, Marc E. G.; Knorr, Dietrich W, (2002), Ultra High Pressure Treatments ofFoods, Springer, New York.[8]. Monnier, Emmanuel, (2007), L’ere du client roi, Science & Vie – Hors Serie(trimestrial), 238.[9]. Vandeginste Pierre, La saveur du fromage au laboratoire, în Les dossiers de laRecherche, nr. 45, octombrie 2011, pp. 86-87.[10]. Vandeginste Pierre, Predire le gout en modelisant, în Les dossiers de la Recherche,nr. 45, octombrie 2011, pp. 88-89.[11]. Maincent Guillaume, Elles imaginent nos assiettes de demain, în Les dossiers de laRecherche, nr. 45, octombrie 2011, pp. 92-94.72Revista Română de Statistică – Supliment Trim IV/2012

Positive Feedbacks, Diffusion Phenomenon andCompetition between Standards on the KnowledgeMarketsAssociate professor Vadim DUMITRAŞCU PhDvadimdu@yahoo.com„Dimitrie Cantemir“ Christian University - BucharestAbstractA pressing reality which companies must deal with is the accelerated emergence ofthe networks, physical or virtual, which play an increasingly important role in business.Networks configuration determines the markets dynamics, business organisation. However,the access to knowledge is not possible but through networks. In the knowledge networks,the generation of some specific effects (of network) initiates processes of positive feedback,meaning that any initial difference in the conditions of the market is amplified in time. It isthe main cause of the fact that the diffusion of knowledge is subject to some exponentiallaws.Key words: knowledge, network, network capital, network effects, positivefeedback, exponential diffusion.JEL Classification: B15, C45, C46, D83, D85, D87, M20, O33.Introduction: meanings of knowledgeNot the hierarchy, but the network constitutes the main mean to convey and tradethe knowledge. It is the reason why the intellectual capital markets also tend to structure innetworks. Networks emphasize two properties of knowledge: 1) contagion or the ability topropagate on wide areas, at a large number of users and 2) diffusion or the property topropagate rapidly, with high speeds.The complexity of knowledge necessary to create economic value amplifies andintensifies the network process: a more complex knowledge means more specialistsconnected to the network, which becomes more dense and extended by reason of contagionand diffusion. Actors frequently connect to the network, with the networks or sub-networksof which they are already part of, playing the role of communicating bridge, which enrichesthe network with additional emergent effects and ensures the formation of some “networksof networks” (Brandes and Erlebach, 2005). Thus, multiplying the relations thatconfigure a network occurs exponentially, as new members adhere to it. The networkappears and expands when knowledge becomes very complex. Knowledge networksrepresent, at the same time, organisational structures of rapid propagation(diffusion/dissemination) of knowledge.2. Positive feedback and network effectsIf the “Old Economy” was driven by scale economies, Knowledge Economy isdriven by the network effects (Shapiro and Varian, 1999). The formation and functioning ofthe knowledge networks generate a series of specific effects. The network effects resultfrom the fact that, for an user of knowledge, the value of that knowledge depends not onlyRevista Română de Statistică – Supliment Trim IV/2012 73

on its intrinsic characteristics, but also on the total number of users, who exploit, at a givenmoment, the considered knowledge. For example, for a person, mastering a foreignlanguage is more useful the more people who know that language he meets among thepeople he enters in contact with. An externality occurs when each additional user generatesbenefits for other users of knowledge, without explicitly receiving any compensation forthis. The network gains overall, becoming more valuable and attractive for both currentmembers, and also for the potential ones.Both virtuous circle and the vicious circle have their beginning in a certain pointwhich designates that critical mass of users of knowledge (critical dimension of thenetwork) from which starts the exponential evolution of knowledge (the actual diffusion)materialized in the accelerated expansion of the network’s dimension. According to Arthur(1990) this process is like a positive feedback.Feedback refers to using the results of past behavior of the system to order ordecide future behavior. Negative feedback generates evolutions of the system, indiminishing the effects of previous action, positive feedback inducing growth processes inwhich the effect of a past action amplifies the future action. If the negative feedback is theforce that stabilizes the disturbances and fluctuations, positive feedback stimulates thedeviations and variations. Positive feedback always produces divergences or alienationfrom the objective, increasing the difference between the present state and the objective,being the base of restructuring the order in the system. The interactions and nonlinearcouplings of the positive feedback may determine the sudden leap of the system from onetrajectory to another. The main network effects are (Zodrow (2003), Amit and Zott (2001),etc.):Direct network effects. Appear when the value of being connected to a knowledgenetwork increases with the number of members of the network. The bigger the network, themore actors use the same knowledge, the wider the possibilities to interchange the results ofapplying that knowledge, without occurring compatibility or convertibility problems.Indirect network effects. As the knowledge network expands, it takes place thereducing of the costs of obtaining that knowledge (due to scale economies), while thevariety of complementary knowledge and access to knowledge are increasing.Network effects due to learning. The increase of the network’s dimension ismaterialized in the expansion of the number of users of knowledge. These “experts”,making available the experience already acquired, favors the expansion of the network bythe “counseling” offered to potential members.Multiplying the network effects is the cause that induces the onset of the positivefeedback process: a bigger network means a bigger value of the network which, on its turn,makes it more attractive for the potential members, and this means bigger chances ofsubsequent growth. A process in the opposite direction runs in smaller networks. If to solvea problem compete several alternatives (standards), rivalry will end by adopting a singlestandard of knowledge, the other being practically eliminated or, however, limited to arestricted use. This selection does not automatically ensure the adoption of the best standardof knowledge: it wins not necessarily the most effective knowledge, but that standard withthe better “adhesion factor” or the greater “contagion” capacity.The rule that explains the generation of value in the presence of network effects isMetcalfe’s rule (Torrent, 2008): if a network consists of N nodes, the value of the networkfor each node is proportional to the number of the other nodes, N-1. Thus, the global valueof the network is proportional to the total number of nodes multiplied by the value of thenetwork for each of the nodes, Nx(N-1). The value provided will depend on the moment ofcoupling/connecting to the network of the additional member and of the dimension of the74Revista Română de Statistică – Supliment Trim IV/2012

network. Under these conditions, starting with a certain number of members, there mayappear congestion effects, as the value provided to a big network by an additional membermay be negative, because it limits the already existing connections.The competition between the standards of knowledge (technologies, products,methods etc.) is similar to the competition between species observed in nature. Variousauthors have studied the applicability of biological models to different economic andmanagerial problems, such as Sprott (2004), Hivner et al. (2003), Morris and Pratt (2003)etc. Perhaps the most popular inter-species competition model met in mathematical biologyis the Lotka-Volterra model, which can be formulated as:; (1)In this model r i is the exponential growth rate of the number of individuals x i of thespecies i; a ij represents the competition coefficient (the effect of j species on the exponentialgrowth rate r of the species i); x j is the number of individuals of the competitor species j.The best known case is that which studies the interaction between two species (twostandards of knowledge), so that the Lotka-Volterra model is reduced to a two equationssystem:Applying this system of equations in the analysis of network effects, ArroyoBariguete et al. (2005) formulated an interpretation of the model, based on the resourcesand capabilities theory, where the size of the population of one species – knowledgestandard – is the market share of that standard. Analyzing the situation of intensecompetition between standards (a 12 > r 1 and a 21 > r 2 ), equivalent to the generation of somestrong network effects, these authors conclude that the model develops a behavior whichcoincides largely with the dynamics of real markets of intellectual capital (the tendency toadopt a unique standard which may be, from a technical point of view, inferior to thoserejected). Admitting negative values for the coefficients a ij , we will obtain symbioticinteractions between the standards of knowledge, there might be, for example,complementary products (Gupta et al. 2000). The models from the Lotka-Volterra familyallow precise adjustments of the behaviors by introducing some delays which representinformational phase differences frequently encountered on markets.3. The process of diffusion of knowledgeThe winner knowledge standard follows an evolution of sygmoidal typecharacterized by a first phase of slow growth explained by the fact that a fairly largenumber of potential users wait until the utility of the network increases enough before theyadopted a standard. Reaching a certain critical mass actuates the process of positivefeedback – the rapid increase of the network. Subsequently, the growth speed tends toreduce as the network approaches its maximum size. In fig. 1 is represented the diffusion ofknowledge as a process of exponential increase of the network’s dimensions.(2)(3)Revista Română de Statistică – Supliment Trim IV/2012 75

Fig. 1 The process of diffusion of knowledgeSource: adapted from White and Bruton (2007)The diffusion of knowledge is an exponential process in whose structure we candistinguish some essential moments and phases. The PR threshold is the minimumdimension of the network (the minimum number of users of knowledge) necessary formaintaining the knowledge in use. The launch phase represents the interval of slow initialgrowth of the network. The critical mass M cr is that dimension of the network where itsincrease starts to run explosively, exponentially. It is the moment of activation of thepositive feedback. The exponential phase is the period of accelerated growth of network’sdimension. The inflection point P inf marks that inflection from which it is passed from theexponential growth in network saturation, being the equivalent of a majority of users whodesire only incremental improvements of that knowledge. The maturation phase is theperiod of decelerated growth of the network’s dimension, corresponding to its saturation.The point P sat indicates the saturation moment of the network corresponding to itsmaximum dimension. Starting with this point, the network’s dimension tends to reduce.The exhaustion phase represents the period of initial slow decrease of the network’sdimension. The abandonment point P ab is the moment in which the abandonment ofknowledge, respectively, the restriction of the network’s dimension begins to developrapidly, the users orienting themselves to other standards of knowledge, respectively, toother networks.76Revista Română de Statistică – Supliment Trim IV/2012

MODELGompertzTable 1 Mathematical models of diffusion of knowledgeEQUATIONGompertzvariant ChowGaussianLog normalWeibullWeibull withthree parametersLog reciprocalSinghMaddalaAdaptivepolynomialLogisticandLogisticvariant ChowPalogeimo andDickieBassSource: Orero Jimenez A., Lopez Sanchez J. J., Arroyo Bariguete A. J. (2005)In this moment, we can distinguish two components of the economical value ofknowledge: the intrinsic value which includes the characteristics of self-knowledge,determining its capacity to solve a certain problem and the synchronization value given bythe total number of users of knowledge and which determines the appearance of thenetwork effects. Within the knowledge networks we can observe a sensitivity to initialconditions: small differences in the network’s dimension, noted in the initial phase, maygenerate substantial differences in the future evolution of the network’s dimension. Thisphenomenon represents the most important feature of the systems prone to chaotisation(nonlinear, discontinuous, irregular behaviors). Other significant features of chaoticsystems are (Kadanoff, 1999) topological transitivity (sudden leaps from one behavior toanother) and dense periodic points (numerous moments of bifurcation). These featuresinfluence pregnantly the process of diffusion of knowledge, which presents obviousanalogies with the process of spread of an epidemic: expanding the use of knowledgepresents an exponential growth starting with the moment when a certain critical mass isreached, which is the starting point of the positive feedback. If the critical mass is notRevista Română de Statistică – Supliment Trim IV/2012 77

eached, knowledge fails to assert and its network extinguishes. Economides (2007) statesthat an exponential increase of the dimension of the knowledge network may have alsosome negative effects: the elimination of variety by the marginalization of some knowledgestandards which demonstrate a low capacity of contagion; reducing the efficiency due to thepossibility of adopting some variants or standards of knowledge less effective; thecongestion (overload) of the network; “immunization” of the users (increase of thenetwork’s drop).We have seen that the diffusion of knowledge may be defined as an increase ofsygmoidal type of the number of users. In table 1 are presented some mathematical modelsshowing such a behavior. Formulating the models of competition between differentstandards of knowledge, in the presence of the network’s effects may be approached fromdifferent perspectives. However, choosing as the reference point of the theory of dynamicalsystems has many advantages compared to other possibilities. The main advantage of thisapproach is that it allows the inclusion in the models of competition of any number ofstandards, the only limit being the computational cost for solving the systems of equations.4. ConclusionPositive feedback that maintain the functioning of the networks generate“pulsatile” dynamics of the economic phenomena. Rapid diffusions are followed bycongestions or stagnations, from which collapses start etc. That is why the evolution of theeconomic systems may be seen as an alternation of the weak complexities with theincreased ones: after progress, that is the increase of complexity, follows a consolidation ofthe hierarchies and constraints, i.e. a reduction of complexity etc. Such a dynamics is thepure expression of the phenomenon of creative destruction described by JosephSchumpeter. Knowledge Economy accelerates and amplifies (as a result of the diffusionphenomenon) this processuality within its structures in the network. Innovations andentrepreneurial solutions are, in their essence, effects of applying knowledge or, as shown,knowledge put into action. The introduction in the economic use of a new knowledgefavors the increase of the complexity. The competition between the standards of knowledgealso stimulates the complexity. But competition leads, in time, to the formation of somehierarchies, which means reducing the complexity. The elimination of old standards ofknowledge by new ones also means decomplexification. In Knowledge Economy, thecreative destruction is materialized in almost continuous reconfiguration of knowledgenetworks.References[1]. Amit, R., Zott, C. (2001), „Value Creation in e-Business“, Strategic ManagementJournal, vol. 22, n o 6-7, pp. 493-520.[2]. Arroyo Bariguete, J.L., Lopez, J.J., Sanchez Seco, C. (2005), „Efectos de red,economia y biologia matematica“, Encuentros multidisciplinares, vol. 7, pp. 2-11.[3]. Arthur, B.W. (1990), „Positiv Feedbacks in the Economy“, Scientific American, vol.262, n o 2, pp. 92-99.[4]. Brandes, U., Erlebach, Th. (2005), Network Analysis: Methodological Foundations,Springler Verlag, Berlin.[5]. Economides, N. (2007), Economics of the Internet, Stern School of Businees, NewYork University (Net Institute Working Paper # 07-01).[6]. Gupta, A., Jucic, B., Stahl, D.O., Whinston, A.B. (2000), „Extracting ConsummersPrivate Information for Implementing Incentive Comparative Internet TrafficPricing“, Journal of Management information Systems, vol. 17, n o 1, pp. 9-29.78Revista Română de Statistică – Supliment Trim IV/2012

[7]. Hivner, W., Hopkins, S., Hopkins, W. (2003), „Faciliting, Accelerating and Sustainingthe Innovation Diffusion Process: An Epidemy Modelling Approach“, EuropeanJournal of Innovation Management, vol. 6, n o 2, pp. 80-89.[8]. Kadanoff, L. (1999), From Order to Chaos II: Critical, Chaotic and Otherwise, WorldScientific Publishing Companies, New York.[9]. Morris, S.A., Prott, D. (2003), „Analysis of the Lotka-Volterra CompetitionEquation as a Technological Substitution Model“, Technological Forecastingand Social Change, vol. 70, n o 2, pp. 103-123.[10]. Orero Jimenez, A., Lopez Sanchez, J.J., Arroyo Bariguete, J.L. (2005),„Desarrollo de un modelo de competencia tecnologica en presencia de efectos dered basado en el modelo Gompertz“, Revista Asturiana de Economia, n o 34, pp. 75-77.[11]. Sprott, J.C. (2004), „Competition with Evolution in Ecology and Finance“,Physics Letters, vol. 325, pp. 329-333.[12]. Shapiro, C., Varian, H.R. (1999), Information Rules. A Strategic Guide to theNetwork Economy, Harvard Business School Press.[13]. Zodrow, G.R. (2003), „Externalities and Indirect Tax Preferences for ElectronicCommerce“, International Tax and Public Finance, vol. 10, n o 1, pp. 79-97.Revista Română de Statistică – Supliment Trim IV/2012 79

Models for Evaluating the Company on FCFE andFCFF basisProfessor Gabriela-Victoria ANGHELACHE, PhDgabriela.anghelache@gmail.comAndreea NEGRU (CIOBANU), PhD StudentAcademy of Economic Studies, BucharestProfessor Gheorghe LEPĂDATU, PhDcilezbujor@yahoo.com„Dimitrie Cantemir“ Christian University - BucharestAbstractThe basic idea when evaluating the companies on the basis of the cash-flowsexpected to e generated in the future consists of up-dating the available cash-flows at anappropriate rate of the expected yield. However, the matter gets complicated if consideringthe fact that we can utilize both the cash-flow available at the company level (FCFF), andthe cash-flow available with the purpose of being distributed to the shareholders (FCFE).Key words: cash-flows, assets, financial indicators, capital, models, investmentJEL Classification: G17, G32The models based on FCFF calculate the to-date value of the company as sum ofthe cash-flows up-dated with the average weighted cost of thewhere:Vo(F) = current value of the company;N = number of years taken into account by the analysis;FCFFi = cash flow available generated in the year;WACC = average weighted cost of the capital, calculated as arithmetic weighted average ofthe company own capitals and the net cost of debts. The average weighted cost of thecapital is the expected yield for all the assets generators of cash-flows that the company isutilizing in its activity.From a technical point of view, the company value represents in fact the value ofits assets in exploitation, namely those assets which generate treasury flows. However, asshown by Fabozzi (2010), the significant non-operational assets, such as the excess ofliquidities, the surplus of investment assets or the pieces of ground held for investmentsmust be added to the estimate in order to get the total real value of the company.The FCFE models of evaluation calculate the present net value of the company(the value of the company own capitals) by up-dating the future cash-flows available forbeing distributed to the shareholders, the difference as against the model (1) consisting ofthe fact that the applied up-dating rate is the expected yield for the company own capitals,namely that yield required by the company shareholders for the capital they havecommitted to this one. The formula of evaluation is:80Revista Română de Statistică – Supliment Trim IV/2012

whereV0(E) = present value of the company own capitals (the net value of the company);FCFEj = cash flow available for distribution to the shareholders in the year i;Re = expected yield of the company own capitals.Certainly, if considering the hypothesis that the company value is known, thevalue of the company own capitals can be calculated by deducting the market value of thecompany debts: (Vq(D)): V0(e) = V0(f)- V0(d).The differences between FCFF and FCFE reflect the differences between thefinancing structures of the companies and, consequently, the prospects of the differentsuppliers of capital. FCFE is easier to apply (and also more direct) when the structure ofcapital of the companies is not very volatile. But, on the other hand, if a company has anegative FCFE and a high level of debts, then FCFF represents the optimal choice.An interesting point is debated by Fabozzi and Markowitz (2010), who suggestthat the perspective implied by the evaluation on FCFE basis is that of an investorexercising a significant influence, able to modify the company dividend policy, while theperspective implied by the evaluation on the basis of the up-dating of the expected futuredividends (Gordon) is that of an investor who cannot influence directly the companydividend policy. To the extent that the investors are willing to pay a premium in order tocontrol the company, then it is possible that a difference between the values of the samecompany, generated by the two models, occurs.The main reasons supporting the analysts’ choice to utilize the models FCFF andFCFE instead of the Gordon model of evaluation are the following: Many companies are paying low dividends or do not distribute dividendsat all; The dividends are not necessarily consistent with the company long-termprofitability, being paid in a discretionary manner; If a company is considered as a potential acquisition, then the evaluationon the basis of the future available cash-flows is correct as the newowners will hold the control on these cash-flows in the future;Lots of empirical researches emphasized the fact that there is a strongcorrelation between the company long-term profitability and the cashflowsthat are generated by its activity.Further on, we shall submit the modalities of calculating applied for the calculationof the financial indicators FCFF and FCFE.The available cash flow is calculated starting from the net outcome of the financialexercise, as follows:FCFF = NI + NCA + Int x (l - t)- WCI - FCI• NI = the net outcome of the financial exercise70;• NCA = adjustments for the non-monetary elements71;• Int = interest expenses during the financial exercise;• t = marginal quota for the tax on profit;• WCI = investment in working capital;• FCI = investment in fix assets.(4), where:We shall then detail the main characteristics of the four adjustments required bythe available cash-flow with the company turnover.Revista Română de Statistică – Supliment Trim IV/2012 81

The adjustments for the non-monetary elements (NCA) must be added to the netoutcome (or deducted from this one) as we handle incomes or expenses, in order to reachthe FCFF since they represent incomes/expenses that were taken into account when settingup the net outcome but that did not generate an effective input or output of liquidities. Themost important non-monetary element which requires adjustment is given by theamortization of the company immobilized assets (corporal and non-corporal). Otherexamples of adjustments for non-monetary elements are represented by:- expenses with provisions for restructuring and other non-monetary losses (suchas, for instance, the losses recorded in connection with the long-term sales of assets) mustbe added to the net outcome. However, as pointed out by Van Horne (2009), if thecompany records these expenses in order to cover future cash-flows, then the estimates forthe future available cash-flows must be diminished accordingly;- reversals (takings-over on incomes) of the elements described by the previouspoint must be deducted from the net profit;- the postponed tax on profit, which results subsequent to the differences ofsynchronization between the reporting of the elements of incomes and expenses foraccounting and fiscal purposes, must be carefully analyzed. In time, it is to be expected thatthese differences compensate to each other having, thus, no significant impact on theoverall cash-flows. Nevertheless, if we expect that the liabilities concerning the postponedtax on profit keep on increasing (without getting reversed), these increases must be addedback to the net profit. Symmetrically, the increases of claims concerning the postponed taxon profit that are not expected to be reversed must be deducted from the net outcome.The investment in fix assets (FCI) is not presented in the company cash-flowsituation but they represent a cash outflow for the company. Thus, the FCI must bededucted from the net outcome when calculating the FCFF. The investment in fix assetsrepresents a net amount, equal to the difference between the capital expenses (CAPEX) andthe cashing from the assets long-term sales. Both elements are reported in the situation ofthe company cash-flows situation. If the company did not recorded assets long-term salesduring the exercise, then the capital expenses will equal with the variant of the grossimmobilizations balance in the balance-sheet; but, if such operations are recorded, then theeventual gains/losses at sale will be treated as non-monetary elements, as previouslydiscussed.The investment in working capital (WCI) equals the variation of the companyworking capital (the requirements for circulating funds). Elements such as the availablecash, cash equivalents, short-term debts and current portion of the long-term debtscommitted by the company are not taken into account. Of course, the diminishing of thecompany own capital will be treated with the sign „+", because it represents a cash inflowfor the company.The interest expenses represent elements of the profit and losses account, but theyare basically representing a part of the cash-flow out of financing activities at the companydisposal before it makes any payment in favor of its capital suppliers.Consequently, the interest expenses must be added to the net outcome in order toreach the available cash-flow at the company level; however the interest expenses are notentirely added but to the net value of taxation, because the deductibility of the interestexpenses when establishing the net outcome of the company is reducing the tax on profitthat is due by this one.The following table synthesizes the above comments:82Revista Română de Statistică – Supliment Trim IV/2012

Net outcome of the exercise (NI)+Adjustments for non-monetary elements (NCA)- WCI= Cash-flow from operations (CFO 76 )+ Int x (1-t)- FCI= FCFF+ Net loans- Int x (1-t)= FCFEDividends+/- Issues/Buying back assets= Net variation of cashCalculation of the available cash-flow; Source: accommodated taking-over from Fabozzi(2010).The estimation for FCFF and FCFE can be achieved through two methods. Thefirst one presumes the calculation of the historical cash-flow followed by the application ofan increase rate under the hypothesis of a constant increase and the maintaining of thefundamental factors of influence. This method is very similar to the Gordon model basedon the up-dating of the future dividends; however, we should note that the increase rates forFCFE and FCFF are different.The second method consists of predicting the component elements of FCFF/FCFEand the individual calculation for each period of prediction. As shown by Fabozzi (2010),this method is more realistic, more flexible and, meantime, more complicated since itassumes that each component of the available cash-flow increases at a different rate on aspecific time horizon. This method is frequently connecting the predictions with futurecapital expenses, the depreciation expenses and the variations of the working capital.Meanwhile, it is important to mention the fact that the investment with fix assets impliestwo dimensions: a component aiming to maintain the existing capacity and a second onemeant to sustain the increase. Thus, the first component is linked with the current level ofsales while the second one depends on the predicted increase of the sales. When estimatingthe FCFE by utilizing the second method, a a common assumption is that the companyshould maintain a constant degree of getting into debts for new investments in fix assetsand working capital. In this case, the FCFE can be predicted with the support of thefollowing formula:FCFE = [NI – (1-DAR)x (FCI - DEP)]- [ (1 - DAR)x WCl], where:DAR = getting into debts degreeDEP = depreciation expensesNow, we undertake to set up the evaluating formulas of the FCFF/FCFE models,starting from certain hypothesis regarding the stages of the increase of the company cashflow.In this respect, we shall consider two particular situations: first of all, the situationwhen the cash-flow is expected to increase at a constant rate over an undetermined periodand, secondly, the situation when we have two or more stages of increase.2. FCFF/FCFE models with a single stage of increaseThe FCFF model with a single stage of increase is analogous to the Gordon modelof increase cu o utilized for evaluating the assets on the basis of the future flows ofanticipated dividends. This model is useful for the analysis of the mature companies of thedeveloped economies. The basic hypotheses of the model are the following:Revista Română de Statistică – Supliment Trim IV/2012 83

- the available cash-flow will increase at a constant rate g every year;- the increase rate g is lower than the average weighted cost of the capital;The evaluating formula is:which, after processing, leads to:,where FCFFo is the value of the company available cash-flow due to the previous exercise.Acknowledging the fact that the sum from the above relation is a geometrical progression,we can write:The condition g < WACC is compulsory as, otherwise, the sum of the rightmember of the relation would be divergent. The actual calculation of the sum leads to:, which equals to:Where from, considering the fact that the limit is zero (g < WACC), we deduceimmediately the evaluating formula for the FCFF model with a single stage of increase:WACC represents the weighted average of the profitableness rates requested bythe company capital suppliers (creditors and shareholders), the weights being representedby the relative market values of the two financing sources: WACC = wE x RE + (l - t)x wDx RD, where we and wd are representing weights of the two financing sources while Rd isthe cost of the company debts (the yield at maturity of the issued bonds, in the case of theobligating bonds.When evaluating the average weighted cost of the capital, the assumption that thepayments done by the company in favor of the shareholders are not deductible while thepayments in favor of the creditors are deductible is an implicit one. Thus, the cost ofrunning into debts considered for the setting up of the WACC is a net one, without thetaxation policy impact. Of course, the average weighted cost of the capital is going to84Revista Română de Statistică – Supliment Trim IV/2012

modify to the extent the company capital structure modifies in time. This is why thespecialists recommend the utilization of the target-structure of the company capital whensetting up the WACC, instead of the weights resulting on the basis of the market values ofthe company own capitals and debts. However, we underline the fact that, in practice, quitefrequently, the present structure of the company capitals differs from the optimal structure(the target-structure), as a result, for instance, of the management intention to speculatecertain profitable opportunities on the market (for example, an unexpected decline of theinterest rates, which implies the reduction in price for the company financing by means ofborrowed capitals).The FCFE with a single stage of increase is analogous to the previous FCFFmodel, the evaluating formula for the company own capitals being the following:With the remark that g represents now the expected rate of increase for the cashflowavailable for distribution to the shareholders. As already discussed, this rate ofincrease is, of course, different from the rate of increase of the company available cashflow.The FCFE model with a single stage of increase is frequently utilized for theevaluation of the foreign companies with the purpose of merging and acquisitionoperations, mainly in the case of the companies originating in countries with highinflationist expectations, when the estimates for the nominal rates of increase and for theexpected yields in nominal terms are hardly achievable, as shown by Fabozzi (2010).Before proceeding further, we reiterate the fact that the models consider a constantrate of increase for the company available cash-flows.3. FCFF/FCFE models with several stages of increaseThe evaluating models based on the discounted available cash-flows, taking intoaccount several stages of increase, are grounded on different projections (scenarios)concerning the pattern of the company cash-flow increase. Fabozzi (2010) explains the factthat a model with two stages can be utilized the evaluated company is recording a rapidincrease (supernormal) on short-term basis and a stable increase on long-term basis. Forinstance, a company holding a patent that expires in seven years might have available cashflowsincreasing rapidly during the first seven years followed by an immediate diminutionof the increasing rate down to its value on long-term basis, at the beginning of the eighthyear. Fabozzi (2010) recommend also a model with three stages of increase when thecompany business prospects in the future indicate a period of increase, a stable period,corresponding to the maturity followed by a period of transition.The most popular (and the simplest) evaluating model with two stages of increaseis that one where FCFF/FCFE are increasing at a high rate (and constantly) and then,decrease suddenly to the level of the increasing rate (again a constant one) on long-termbasis.In this increasing scenario, the evaluating formula for FCFF is the following:where Nst represents the number of the years of quick increase.Revista Română de Statistică – Supliment Trim IV/2012 85

The most efficient (and realistic) evaluating models with two stages of increase arerepresented by the so-called “H models”, which start from the hypothesis of a rapidincrease during the first years but which diminishes gradually up to the constant value ofthe increasing rate of the long-term available cash-flows.The evaluating models based on FCFF/FCFE with several stages of increase canbe approached either starting from the general evaluating model, or from sub-dividing theminto more models with one/two stages of increase, as indicated by Fabozzi .Beyond the evaluating models based on FCFF or FCFE themselves, a significantrole is played by the sensitiveness analysis, which shows the extent to which the valuegenerated by the model is modified against the variation of the utilized inputs. Of course, isit reasonable to expect some variables to have a stronger impact on the evaluation resultsas comparatively with others but the sensitiveness analysis is the one allowing us just thequantification of this impact.As shown by Fabozzi, the main sources of errors in the process of evaluating onthe basis of the available cash-flows are the following:- the estimation of the FCFF and FCFE future increase. The estimated rates ofincrease depend on the future efficiency of the company which, at its turn, depends on theincrease of the sales volume, the profit margin, its position within the business cycle, itscompetitive strategy and, of course, on the general degree of profitableness of the industrywhere the company operates;- the selection of the base years for the predictions of the FCFF and FCFEincrease rates. It is necessary to select a representative year as base year; otherwise all thesubsequent evaluations might lead to non-conclusive outcomes;Under these circumstances, the sensitiveness analysis allows us to estimate anavailability (corresponding to specific hypotheses concerning the influence factors of theinputs), which allows us to get an overall image of the evaluated company and, of course, abetter understanding of the value influence factors.References[1]. Anghelache, G.V., (2004) – „Piaţa de capital. Caracteristici.Evoluţii.Tranziţii”,Editura Economică[2]. Copeland, T; Weston, F. (2004) – “Financial Theory and Corporate Policy”, 4 th edition,Addison-Wesley Publishing Company;[3]. Fama, E.F. (1976) – “Foundations of Finance”, New York;[4]. Miskin, F. (2009) – „The economics of money, banking and financial markets”, 9 thedition, Pearson[5]. Mossin, J. (1966) – „Equilibrium in a Capital Asset Market”, Econometrica Vol. 34,No. 4, 768-783.[6]. Singer, B.D., Terhaar, K.(1997) – “Economic Foundations of Capital Market Returns”Research Foundation of The Insitute of Chrtered Financial Analysts)86Revista Română de Statistică – Supliment Trim IV/2012

Romania in the Globalization ContextProfessor Radu Titus MARINESCU PhDradu_titus_marinescu@yahoo.com“Artifex” University of BucharestAbstractDue to the precarious situation of the Romanian economy, it is requested toidentify the weak and the strong points in order to get integrated within the global economystructures. The Romanian banking system has been afflicted with significanttransformations, some of them very costly but which, at the end of the day led to itsconsolidation. Those who presently administrate this system should concentrate theirefforts in order to increase the confidence of the population and the economic agents in theRomanian banks along with the implementation of an efficient system for the riskmanagement. As far as the relations with the international economic institutions areconcerned, the conclusion of the Agreement with the International Monetary Fund isrepresenting a first significant step but, in the context of the globalization and liberalizationof the capital market, it is necessary to draw financial resources and to consolidate therelations with the specialized institutions.Key words: globalization, business environment, knowledge, mentalityJEL Classification: F60,1. General aspects of the globalizationOne of the compulsory conditions for securing the macroeconomic stabilityconsists of the continuation of the disinflation processes. But, in order to let this process bepossible, it is necessary to reduce the arrears in the frame of the economy and to solve theissue of the moral hazard. The decrease of the interests, as a result of this action, will reducethe price of the credits and will facilitate the investment, creating thus the premise for asustained economic growth.A crucial condition for securing a competitive business environment consists ofbreaking the state monopoly in the field of the public utilities. The qualitative surplus somuch needed by the national agents can be achieved by increasing the competition only.This is the reason for considering the transnational companies more and more a danger;another apprehension as regards the large international corporations is given by thepossibility to having internal losses and external profits. However, in the frame of thisanalysis, we are not ignoring the positive aspects that their presence on the Romanianmarket involves, namely, the know- how contribution and the change of the mentality ofsocialist kind at the employees level.Another stringent issue of the Romanian economy is represented by theagriculture, a sector where it is requested the passing from exploitations of small andmedium sizes to the large agricultural exploitations. An important role in the frame of thisprocess is played by the state, which must create the framework required by the increase ofthe Romanian products quality, so that they can cope with the fierce competition going toget birth along with the integration of Romania in the European market structures.Revista Română de Statistică – Supliment Trim IV/2012 87

Although in most of the situations, the countries keep the national and sovereigncharacter, it is more and more seen as being too small to cope with the great issues and toobig to take care of the small issues. In this context, it became necessary that new structuresof state organizing are created and a more de-concentrated organizing of the super- statepower is put in place. Presently, the countries feel like responding to the global challenges(pollution, terrorism, informatics’ war), which generates an intensification of the cooperationbased on subordination principles for the time being on a regional plan only.Among the biggest fears occurring when we talk about the adhesion of Romania to theinternational structures, there is the loss of the sovereignty. In fact, Romania acquires newmeans of action, more efficient as comparatively with the traditional ones.During the forthcoming period, the political systems will have to cope withincreasing pressures coming from the transnational corporations as well as from the noneconomicalagents, the civil society. These groups of interests acquired a power whichincreased exponentially during the last years, taking into account the new possibilities ofcommunication, namely the Internet.Considering these grounds, the central aim of Romania, on medium-term, wouldconsist of consolidating the political influence in the Balkan area, identifying the nichesallowing Romania to become a regional leader in this zone.From the social point of view, among the most significant consequences of theglobalization we have to count the access to information facilitating. The standardpresentation of the information generates the social uniformity having as effect, in thecultural sphere, the corrugation of the regional specific differences up to their annihilation.Thus, the internet is the engine of the communication at the global level of the society,which may lead to the creation of a global civil society. At the individual level, we arefacing a corrugation of the spiritual identity, shown by the loss of the conscience ofbelonging to a certain social community that is replaced by a universal total and totalitarianconscience.The reverse of the excess of information leads to the alienation in mass of theindividuals, materialized in the fact that they are no more capable to make the differenceconsciously between the virtual reality and the natural reality. The artificial environmentThe artificial environment as space where this is not the imagination that imitates things butthere are just these things are constituting themselves as imitations of some virtual modelspromoted by means of pictures, advertising, cartoons, video games leads to the increase ofthe incidence of the cases of anxiety, alienation, madness, anomaly, lack of balance.From another point of view, the globalization is shows itself by the gradualincrease of the differences of opportunities between the elites and the larges masses ofpeoples, materialized by the accentuated pauperization of the inferior social classes. Allthese issues are reflected by the increase of the law infringement as well as by the increasedpossibilities of conflict between the poor states. As Romania counts among the developingcountries category, it is directly affected by the firs of the above issues, presenting also apotential for the second one.Among the positive aspects of the globalization, frequently mentioned is theopening to the world of the ex-enclaves, through the free circulation of the population.But this opening is selectively made and those taking advantage of it are more and more thespecialized and educated categories of the society, meaning the elites mentioned above. Weare facing more and more complex modalities as regards the entertainment under the sign ofthe superficiality worship which leads to the corrugation of the moral codes,, namely to thegradual disappearance of the internalized authority. Consequently, presently the largepublic ceased showing interest for anything else but for the culture as a show, for the88Revista Română de Statistică – Supliment Trim IV/2012

knowledge as a contest available with the TV or the Internet while the last form of artappreciated by the masses is given by the commercials.At a macro-scalar level, the issues of the environment (the global heating, thegreen-house effect, the devastation of the forestry, the decrease of the hunting mass), willshow ever more visible effects within the forthcoming period. The micro-scalar issuesshould be added here (the industrial pollution, the soil degradation, the trans-frontlinepollution, the waters pollution) with more severe and rapid effects on the population. Thefact that the population is not awaken in this respect as well as the refuse to take firmdecisions in this respect lead to the occurrence of certain long-term worldwide issues.The main engine of the globalization, respectively the technology, showed aremarkable development within these last years, based in principle on the increase of theinformation in the entire world. Due to the sustained rhythm of the technologiesdevelopment, the IT world market dissipated over the entire globe, getting concentrated inspecialized zones. The supremacy in this field belongs, doubtless, to the United States ofAmerica.The main feature of this sector is obviously the efficiency, since the productionprocess is utilizing the highly qualified labor force at relatively low price. This leadsimplicitly to the decrease of the prices for the IT products and to the increase of theirquality.The first global community, the INTERNET, led to the suppression of the frontiersof any kind at the level of the globe inhabitants. An eloquent example for the Internetintegration in the frame of the globalization process is represented by a plan aiming theutilization of the resources of a calculators’ network connected with the internet in order tofind out a remedy against the cancer. In this context, Romania has the required potential forplaying a major role in what means the development of the informatics technology at theworld level, based on the labor force of excellence training, encouraged by the law projectssupported by the government. By the legislative initiatives of the IT Commission from theChamber of Deputies these last months, a legislative framework of general character hasbeen created (the e-commerce Law and the Law of electronic signature) along with stepsmeant to encourage the investment in this field (such as the Law of "0%" taxation on wage).For the future, it is forecasted to establish informatics parks, namely zones of special statutefrom fiscal point of view. All this initiative might be applied in the field of the biotechnologyas well considering the professional labor force acting here. Romania disposesof a particular potential allowing it to become an important center for bio-technological andsoftware research, as subsidiaries of foreign research institutes. The globalization andintegration phenomenon implies that the member countries give up part of their sovereigntyattributes, which is one of the grounds of the international law.The globalization phenomenon is unavoidable. Besides the economical andpolitical globalization there is also the moral globalization to consider. Generally speaking,the globalization should be based on moral principles. Irrespectively the changes beingimplied in the foreign trade field as well, the basic principles of the commercial policieswill keep on remaining valid for long time forward, despite the large scale of technologicalprogresses going to be achieved.The principles of promoting, sustaining and protecting the individual and/or groupinterests will remain valid within the globalized market.Romania has nothing else to do but to fulfill as honestly as possible the obligationsit undertook in the frame of the European Agreement, within a term as short as possible, ofmaximum two years.Revista Română de Statistică – Supliment Trim IV/2012 89

The subsequent documents of this agreement described a series of criteria ofperformance and convergence that, once accomplished, will secure a more conscioustransition of Romania to the EU.Irrespectively that fact that we notice either the positive aspects or the negativeones, the globalization is a process that takes place. A phenomenon such as theglobalization must be exploited by everybody in the attempt to get the maximum out of it,for the benefit of its own interest.2. The globalization and the international financial systemNumerous analysts underline frequently the spectacular increase of the capitalmovements in the frame of the world economy within the last twenty years; meantime, theymention the ever higher weight of the private capitals in financing the deficit of thedeveloping states. But, if these figures have significance beyond any doubt, other events –such as the financial crises that succeeded each other so rapidly in the recent years –involve a more detailed examination of the international financial systems. This is actuallythe topic which I am trying to develop bellow. Thus, I shall try to emphasize what Iconsider as being a basic deficiency of the international financial system, which asks for aresponse from those bearing the prerogatives for the construction of the institutionalarrangements governing the system.Under the conditions in which the years '80 have been marked by the crash ofTokyo or New York stock exchanges (in 1987), the following decade was scattered withnumerous currency and financial crises. At the beginning of the years '90, the mechanism ofthe exchange rates (ERM) at the EU level – as predecessor of the Monetary Union – issubject of huge tensions, materialized in the coming out of the "tunnel" of numerouscurrencies such as the sterling pound, the Italian lira and the Portuguese escudo. Then, thecollapse of the Mexican peso followed in the autumn of the year 1994, situation thatemphasized the financial situation of the country which relied on the financing on an evershorter term (whereof it’s speculative character) for the budgetary deficits. After few years,the big financial crisis of the South-East Asia followed, being launched by the collapse ofthe Thailand baht in the autumn of the year 1997. Involving effects of economic negativedynamics for these countries used to record high levels of economic growth, the crisispointed out in the most convincing possible way the dangerous impact of the phenomenonof financial contagion from the respective zone and the worldwide space. Meantime, thiscrisis underlined the disadvantages implied by the practice of fix exchange rates in thesituation of considerable deficits of the current account with financing achieved by shorttermentries of capital. To note however the fact that, comparatively with those from theLatin America, the Asian states were famous for the prudence promoted by their budgetarypolicies; the source of their troubles was to be found in the private sector as well as theexaggerate exposure to the banking credits granted on a short-term basis. Now, it is aboutthe time to add the fragility characteristic for the financial and banking systems. Russiafaced a new financial crisis of proportions, this happening in the year 1998 and leading tothe stoppage of the payments for the treasury bonds issued on the domestic market (GKO);the new crisis troubles other financial markets as well, including here even the Latin-American ones, and making the interventions of the Federal Reserves System compulsoryin order to prevent a contagion of the American banking system as a consequence of thecrisis of the speculative funds, hedge-fund, LTCM (Long Term Capital Management).All the previous events referred to emphasize an increasing volatility of theinternational financial flows, as well as the high uncertainty having to be faced by the local(national) financial systems. Thus, it is necessary to underline that, during the yearly90Revista Română de Statistică – Supliment Trim IV/2012

summit of the international financial structures taking place in Hong Kong (in 1997), theIMF general manager at that time, Mister Michel Camdessus, submitted to the attention ofthe officials came from the attending countries to the summit, a suggestion from the side ofthe organism he represented, namely to accelerate the liberalization of the capital account.Therefore, that suggestion has been submitted under the circumstances of an alreadylaunched crisis of the South Asia. But, the question is: how was it possible to submit such arecommendation of economic policies and which could have been its consequences? Inorder to answer such a question, is would be useful to proceed to a brief analysis of thedifficulties in making choices in the field of the macroeconomic policy within an openeconomy.Anybody who alleges that the international economic system was never moreopened and free than it is nowadays, should be a little bit more circumspect, should vary itsallegation. The second half of the recently closed century, with a Pax Britanica thatmanaged to secure a certain "order" within the empire and not only, has been characterizedby a large liberty of the trade, the capital flows and, last but not the least, a free circulationof the peoples. It is mainly the last aspect that shows the reason for which a verdict is not soeasy to issue. Within the post-war decades (after the second world war), the developedcountries have well locked up their borders against the possible immigrants, those beingadmitted counting as a very small number as comparatively with those willing toimmigrate. However, it is true that the order enforced by the Victorian Kingdom of Englandinternally and between its colonies, or that secured by France in the frame of its colonialempire, cannot be compared with everything implied by the present international system,including up to 200 sovereign states. We might consider a certain Pax Americana, by thevirtue of the hegemonic statute held by the United States, as well as of their economical,financial and military force, that are undisputable by the end of the XX century, but thenature of the power exercise differs from the one of the mentioned colonial powers. In thesituation of considering to particularize the globalization of our present times, it would benecessary to emphasize the impact of these new communicational technologies (such asinternet-vA), of all the financial innovations (as a result of the globalization of the capitalmarket), but also of certain institutional arrangements, which liberalized the commercial orfinancial flows; this globalization is increasing the diversity in production and consumption.Coming back to the epitomized period of the Victorian England, this has beencharacterized by the functioning of the gold standard (the so-called "the Gold Standard")and by a considerable stability of the exchange rates. The adjustments of the commercialimbalance were made by liquidity movements that drew merely price fluctuations thanfluctuations of the economic activity – without being in the position, however, to prevent aneconomical crisis. To remark the fact that the down warding nominal evolutions of theprices and wages, which might illustrate a particular flexibility of the prices of the productsand production factors (wages), could be placed in the responsibility of lack of powerfullabor unions.We can allege that the birth of the assisting state together with the developmentof the labor union movement have radically modified the entire frame for formulatingeconomical policies during the inter-wars period. Both, an “organized” labor market, moreand more immune to the down warding dynamics of the wages, and the increasing numberof programs of social assistance led to different adjustments to the external shocks(explained by the lack of balance of the balances). Here originates the temptation of thegovernments to give up the arrangements of convertibility in gold for their nationalcurrencies, to resort to devaluations and to apply protectionist policies. This is how therecrudescence of the protectionism is explained, along with the instability situation of theRevista Română de Statistică – Supliment Trim IV/2012 91

exchange rates and the occurrence of the premises of the financial crisis of the years 1929-1933 – known in history as "The Great Depression". This situation of global crisisunderlined the extent to which the contagion may be "lethal", the transmission of the shockwave from the Europe territory to that of the USA being impossible to stop.Just from the time of the second worlds war (1940 - 1941) , the Great Britain andthe United States started to think about the structure of the international financial system ofthe post-war period. The lessons taught during the inter-wars period were the following: thefluctuating exchange rates generate excessive instability; the uncontrolled capitalmovements generate at their turn large perturbations; specific frameworks meant to favorthe international trade and avoid commercial wars were required.To these findings an additional very serious motive has to be added, namely theclear need of economic recovery, of the reconsolidation after a war that proved to be adisaster for the belligerents. The Americans, represented by Harry Dexter White as officialof the Treasury Department, pleaded for the stability of the exchange rates and free flows,both commercial and of capitals; however, on the other hand, the British side, through thevoice of the economist John Maynard Keynes, was closer to what meant the economicalreality: Europe was a continent devastated by the war, where the governments needed to agreat extent as many as possible means in order to be able to fight against the eventualexternal imbalances being meantime concerned with the costs of adjustments for a tiredpopulation. We can consider that the meeting of the two opinion tendencies expressed, onone side, the different analytical vision (the Americans’ position, more “liberal” in theEuropeans’ eyes, or monetarist in the profoundly Keynesian and economical vision of theBritish part, obsessed by the increased unemployment) and, on the other side, the interestsnot exactly common in many respects.The Agreements of Bretton Woods stipulated as "rules of the game" a functioningof the fix exchange rates but adjustable (adjustable pegs) under special conditions, as wellas the possibility to enforce commercial restrictions under particular conditions with thepurpose to adjust the payments balance. Meantime, the surveys on the capital movementswere accepted. Remarkable was the fact that the adjustment of the exchange rate presumesthe existence of some "fundamental imbalances of the payment balance" as well as theagreements from the IMF side, this requirement aiming to prevent the devaluation. In thesituation where the IMF or the World Bank would have been supposed to take care of thefinancial issue, both on short-term (by adjusting the payment balance), and on long-termbasis (by economic development), the GATT organization (newly the World TradeOrganization) should be concerned with ordination of the international trade and itsliberalization.Irrespectively the criticism regarding now the Bretton Woods agreements, the factthat they enforced useful rules in the international economical relations is undisputable, aswell as the fact the functioning of the two institutions that marked the evolution of the postwarsystem; the arrangements have of course contributed to the recovery of the West-European countries after the war. But, on time, an ever stronger pressure became visible asto the relaxation of the restrictions and the basic rules. The pressure put on the need to havemore flexible exchange rates kept on increasing along with the development of theexchange of goods and services within the global economy and, implicitly, along with themultiplication of the imbalances of the commercial imbalances, implied by the massivelyincreased flows of capital. We should not forget that those years showed the developmentof the euro-currencies markets, the elimination of the restrictions for the capital flows, aswell as significant commercial imbalances, which required adjustments of amplitude of thepayment balance. For instance, for the United States of America, the high commercial92Revista Română de Statistică – Supliment Trim IV/2012

imbalance was due mainly to the Vietnam war, as this was financed by the government,apparently without problems. But everything reached a top point when the USA announcedtheir decision to give up the gold convertibility of the dollar (1971); that momentrepresented the starting point for a new stage of the floating flows.References[1]. Anghelache, G.V., (2004) - "The capital market. Features. Developments.Transition ", Economic Publishing House[2]. Markowitz, H.M. (1952) – „Portofolio Selection”, The Journal of Finance 7, 77-91[3]. Sharpe, W. (1964) – „Capital asset prices: A theory of market equilibrium underconditions of risk”, Journal of Finance 19, 425-442.[4]. *** Debt and Reserve-Related Indicators of External Vulnerability, FMI WorkingPaper, 2000Revista Română de Statistică – Supliment Trim IV/2012 93

Using Dynamic Series of Moments for EconomicAnalysisLecturer Diana COCONOIU, PhD Student“Dimitrie Cantemir” Christian University, BucharestSenior Lecturer Elena BUGUDUI, PhDbugudui@yahoo.com“Artifex” University of BucharestAbstractThe authors point out in this article particular economic analysis using dynamicseries of moments based on the two types of series of moments: moments series intervalsbetween moments and some moments with unequal intervals between them are processingtheir variants.Key words: data, calculation, correlation, chronological, dynamicJEL Classification: C22In a series of moments it can be encounter two situations: series of moments withequal intervals between moments and series of moments with unequal intervals.If the intervals between the time of registration terms are equal, then the seriesprocessing can be done in two ways:- Convert the series of moments in the series of intervals calculating simplearithmetic average for each period and calculate absolute indicators, relative to medium.For example, with values of fixed assets at the end of each year, calculate their averageannual value and obtain a new series which, from the first series, will have a term of less.Data from the new series being comparable in terms of time referred to, can be comparedwith each other both in absolute and in relative size. The results obtained from theprocessing of such series may be included in calculations of correlation with series offeatures which are interdependent, e.g. correlation analysis carried out between dynamics ofproduction and dynamics of fixed assets.- Series of moments with equal intervals, processed as such and then you can getabsolute indicators, relative to medium, except the average is calculated using a specialform of arithmetic mean, known in the literature as the average chronological.Simple chronological Media applies to times series with equal intervals between them.If the intervals between terms registration moments are equal, thenthe processing is done as with a series of intervals, except the average, which is calculatedusing the simple average chronological.Positioning the terms of a series of moments with equal intervals between them onan axis will be:t i t 1 t 2 t 3 t 4,y i y 1 y 2 y 3 y 4 y 5where:94Revista Română de Statistică – Supliment Trim IV/2012

y = terms of dynamic series, that take values from y 1 to y n ;t = intervals between times series,that take values from t 1 to t n-1 .Axis values yi shows that the terms are fair to each other and each one marks atime of period that is being analyzed.As in a series of moments there are n terms and n-1 intervals, that means eachinterval is marked by two terms. For this reason extreme terms appears once andintermediate terms appears two times. For exmple, y 2 marks the end of the first period andthe beginning of the second period,but y 1 marks just the beginning of the first period.In this case it must be calculated for each interval the partial averages and thenthe total average. Partial averages will be calculated as simple arithmetic average using thetwo extreme terms and then it will be calculated the total average.If we generalize the data and are denoted average by y cr we obtain:y1 y2y2 y3yn1 yn y2 22cr .n 1n – 1 terms are in the denominator, because it can be calculated n – 1 the partial average,for each interval.The average formula we obtain:y1 2 y2 2 y3 yny2cr .n 1then:ycry12 y2 y3n 1 yn2.This formula is called chronological average and applies only to the time series ofmoments. It has the same content as the overall average calculated from the partial averageand is noted by y cr .Because the intervals between moments are equal, it is simple chronologicalaverage and is defined as the sum divided by two of the extreme terms plus the sum ofintermediares terms, all divided by the number of terms series minus one, also because thehalf of the extreme terms make togheter a term.We obtain the same numerical value as if they would calculate the overall averageof partial averages.Series of moments with unequal intervals.In this situation using the weitghted chronological average.For exemple, if we have a series of four intervals on an axis reprezantion will be:Revista Română de Statistică – Supliment Trim IV/2012 95

t it 1t 3t 2y i y 1 y 2 y 3 y 4Terms are distributed in unequal intervals and their modification is done uniformlyfrom an interval to another. Each term will be proportional to one half of the joinedinterval:t 1 t 2 t 3y 1 y 2y 3 y 4Based on this ration, it is considered that the weighted for each half of the joinedinterval term, by using the weighted chronological average.yyycrcrcr t1 t1t2 tn1y1 y2 yn 2 2 2 2 t1 t1t2 tn1 2 2 2 2 t1 t1 t2 tn1y1 y2 yn 2 2 2 t1t1 t2tn1 2 2 2 t1 t1 t2 tn 1 y1 y2 yn 2 2 2 n 1tii1Here, first and the last term is weighted with half of the first (respectively last timeinterval) and the intermediate terms with half of the joined intervales.It is important to note that for some moments with unequal intervals between datarecorded chronological the weighted average is the main indicator that characterizes theseries.Other indicators cannot be calculated as a correlation system, because it does notsatisfy the condition of uniform periodicity which is data series.These series are used, in particular, from presentation of data that comes throughspecial organized researches, like the census or inventorying. Their process is doneaccording to the type series.96Revista Română de Statistică – Supliment Trim IV/2012

References[1]. Badita, M., Baron, T., Korka, M. - „Statistics for Business”, Ed, Eficient, Bucharest,1998[2]. Box, G.E.P., Jerks, G.M. – „Time Series Analysis, Forecasting and Control”,Holdenday, San Francisco, 1970[3]. Bry, G., Cyclical, C. (1971) – „Analysis of Time Series”, Columbia University Press,New York[4]. Diebold, F., Kilian, L., Nerlove, M. (2006) – „Time Series Analysis”, PIER WorkingPaper No 06-019[5]. Mitrut, C., Anghelache, G.V., Anghelache, C., Badulescu, M.C., Mariţescu (Bunda),M. (2009) – „ Aspects of dynamic series decomposition ", ", Scientific ResearchThemes/Studies Communications at the National Seminary „Octav Onicescu",Romanian Statistical Review No 3/2009Revista Română de Statistică – Supliment Trim IV/2012 97

Legal Status of Juridical Persons with Not-For-Profit PurposeSenior Lecturer Anca POPESCU-CRUCERU, PhDancacruceru@yahoo.comArtifex University of BucharestFaculty of Management-MarketingAssistant Eugenia-Gabriela LEUCIUC, PhD Studentgabrielar@seap.usv.roStefan cel Mare University of SuceavaFaculty of Economic and Public AdminstrationViorel BĂNULESCU, PhD Studentviorel_banulescu@yahoo.co.ukBucharest Academy of Economic StudiesThe Doctoral SchoolAbstractThe present research represents a brief ingression within the legal framework ofassociations and foundations, in Romanian and compared law, related to specific legalstipulations and their practical consequences. The authors' intention is that of outliningcertain deficiencies of the law in force, pointed out especially by the legal practice,suggesting that legal dispositions should be completed, aiming to set certain concrete rulesto apply in order to eliminate certain possible subjective interpretations.Key words: association, foundation, legal personality, not-for-profit purposes,general interest, private interestJEL Classification: K22, L31, L33IntroductionAs part of the category of private legal persons, associations and foundations areentities with legal personality and not-for-profit purpose, constituted of natural and legalpersons all conducting activities of general or communitarian interest. The sense of thedefinition of such legal matters has remained unaltered since 1924, when, right in themiddle of the Romanian legal system development, was drafted and issued the so-called“Law Mârzescu”, after the name of the minister of justice back in those times, moreprecisely Law no. 21/1924 of foundations and associations. Subsisting, with smallalterations, almost seven centuries, this law was replaced in 2000 by the EmergencyOrdinance no. 26/30 of January 2000, normative act which was altered and completed in2003, by means of the Emergency Ordinance no. 37/2003. In essence, such legalinstruments are based on the principle of free association, confirmed by art. 37 of theRomanian Constitution, applied in what concerns the promotion of civic values, in theaccomplishment of a general, moral and abstract interest, or of a local or common goal.Legal status of legal persons with not-for-property purposeAccording to the definition given by art. 1 of the EOG no. 26/2000, altered by theEOG no. 37/2003, are not considered associations or foundations all political parties,98Revista Română de Statistică – Supliment Trim IV/2012

unions and religious cults, explaining, in the same time, the notions of "general interest"and "common goal ", which raised enough problems to legal courts, while interpreting theirsense.Thus, by "activities of general interest", the law does not have in view theactivities conducted in the area of economical, social and cultural development, thepromotion and defense of human rights, the promotion of health, education, science of arts,traditions, cultures, support of religion and human values, the maintenance of social wealth,and the support of public works and infrastructure. By exclusive legal determination of thedomains representing a purpose for the associations and especially the foundations, it canbe stated that it is practically applied the possibility, given by law, for these entities todevelop commercial activities, which financial results, but they must be reflected within theassociation or the foundation. In what concerns the definition of “communitarian interest”,the EOG no. 37/2003, shows that this represents any interest belonging to a community(neighborhood, town or local-administrative unit), or to a group of natural and/or juridicalpersons, all following a common goal or the same opinions, culture or religious, social orprofessional orientation, yet the list is not limited.These entities can group in federations, which legal regime is regulated in chapterV of the EOG no. 26/2000, provisions offering self-standing legal personality to these onestoo, without affecting the legal personality or the private patrimony of their members.All these three categories of subjects of civil law beneficiate, under the conditionsof the law, of the possibility of access to private resources, as well as public, whichpossibility is offered to federations inclusively, after the entrance into force of the EOG no.37/2003.The constitution of foundations and associations is achieved on the grounds of aconstitutive act and of a statute (of organization and function), signed and authenticated,under the penalty of absolute nullity.The provisions of these documents are imperatively provided by law, the missinsertion of any of them between the mandatory mentions attracting the absolute nullity ofthe document.In order to authenticate/certify the constitutive act and the statute, it is necessary topresent the proof of the availability of the name of the legal person to be, issued, inconformity with the law, by the Ministry of Justice (it is stated the fact that the name of thelegal persons, be it association, foundation, federation or subject of commercial law, shallnot use words such as “national, Romanian”, or any other sentences specific to authoritiesor public institutions or any other liberal profession or self-regulatory activities).Related tot this imperative demand of the law, there are certain aspects to pointout.According to the Ministry of Justice Order no. 954/B/C/26.04.2003, by means ofwhich it is approved the Regulation for the organization of the Register of Associations andFoundations, Register of Federations, as well as the National Register of legal persons withnot-for-profit purpose, the special authority within the Ministry of Justice, receiving arequest of registration of the availability of an association/foundation, can reject the issue ofthe respective proof, when breached the legal provisions, as well as when there is anidentity between the solicited name and one attributed already to a different registered legalperson.Additional to the regulation much too extended comprised in the mentioned legalinstruments, we consider that there can intervene a certain subjectivism both of theadministrative authority and of the court issuing this mandatory permit, as it is difficult toRevista Română de Statistică – Supliment Trim IV/2012 99

appreciate whether it belongs to specific “liberal professions or to any other self-regulatoryactivities”.For the exemplification, the medical activity can be considered liberal activity orprofession, circumstances under which the name of “Doctors without borders” should berejected; or, with more severe consequences, the constitution of the “RomanianConstitutional Bar”, existent name, passed with little difficulties, although such name,despite the confusions it can produce, attract consequences hard to repair, entering not onlyunder the incidence of special civil laws, but also under criminal laws (the members of thisinstitution developing the profession of lawyers outside the special organic law – therefore,the alleged mandate of such representative-lawyer being legally null).From this point of view, probably in order to ensure a higher level of objectivity,the existent legal instruments should be completed by indicating with a greater precisionthe categories of names which can be used by the newly constitutedassociations/foundations.The legal personality of the association, foundation or federation can be achievedby passing the legal control stage, concluded by the pronunciation of a hearing reportdisposing over the registration of the association/foundation in the registrar of legalpersons. This report of admission or rejection of the registration request has the legal valueof a court decision, as it is susceptible to be attacked with appeal within 5 days since theday of pronouncement, for the present parties and from the day of the communication, forthe absent parties. The appeal is judged in the Advising Chamber, summoning the parties,in emergency procedure and preferentially.The authority of resolution of the registration demands belongs to the local courtof justice under which jurisdiction is the headquarter of the respective legal person, exceptfor the registration of the foreign legal persons' representatives, with not-for-profit purpose,which is to be issued by the Bucharest Tribunal, on the grounds of the preliminary approvalby the Romanian Government.In this last case, the recognition procedure knows certain particularities comparedto the common law procedure, in the sense of the preliminary mandatory transition of theadministrative phase, by obtaining the approval of the Romanian Government for theregistration on the territory of this country of a dismemberment of a foreign legal person,with special status.Therefore, the sense of the law lacks clarity, art. 76 and the following from theEOG no. 26/2000 making a certain confusion in defining the institutions.It is acknowledged the fact that, in a strictly legal sense, the notion of “legal entityrecognition” does not coincide with the notion of “representative”, which acts, according toclassic definitions, as a simple mandate/commissioner of a parent-company.From the content of the legal text above it seems that, actually, the parent “legalperson” is to act on one's behalf on the territory of Romania, especially since, corroboratingwith art. 76 and art. 81 of the law, it results that this is precisely the sense.Law no. 105/1992 provided, in art. 165 and the following., that a court decisionproduces its effects on the Romanian territory through recognition; from this point of view,legal persons from most of the countries are submitted to legal control, and by thisconferring legal personality.It is also worth noticing the resemblance of regulation regarding the recognitionprocedure of foreign court decisions effects and the foreign entities' legal personalityrecognition – from this point of view, at least immediately after the entrance into force ofthe EOG no. 26/2000, governmental authorities and instances were put in a sort ofembarrassment in matters of legal qualification for the registration demands of the alleged100Revista Română de Statistică – Supliment Trim IV/2012

“representatives” of foreign legal entities with not-for-profit purposes. Such fact wasbrought into discussion also by the financial authorities, knowing that the financial regimeof the representatives is different from that of the Romanian legal persons.Nowadays, foreign legal entities recognition is accomplished according to art.2.582 of the New Civil Code, which effects are made legitimate by art. 2.583 NCC – thus,it benefits from all the rights arising out of its organic status law (domestic law), byconducting the activities on the Romanian territory under the circumstances established bythe Romanian law according to their exercise.Another problem which could rise within the procedure of association/foundationregistration is that of the mandatory permit of the ministry or the central publicadministration special authority under which jurisdiction is conducted the activity, suchimperative demand being reintroduced by the provisions of the art. 5 and 6 of the EOG no.37/2003.It is obvious and true, this demand existed also in Law no. 21/1924 (although, atleast lawfully, the permit had consultative character), the purpose of the EOG no. 26/2000being, as we consider, the adjustment of bureaucracy and the waiting time, as it is wellknown that, in principle, public administration authorities solve the demand within a legalterm of 30 days.We bring this aspect into the reader's attention in order to point out how can becorroborated the terms of registration provided in the EOG no. 26/2000 with the other legalterms. Apparently, the legal procedure starts from the moment of submission of the requestand all additional papers, within a three-months terms since the solicitation of namereservation; the problems could appear to the extent to which the authorities of the publicadministration would delay or not solve the request at all, in which case, practically, theauthorized mandate could not accomplish his/her mandate of registering theassociation/foundation, under the specific penalties.From another point of view, we consider that in this situation, the provisions withpure administrative character hinder in fact the registration of certain entities which purposeif under no circumstance not-for-profit. From this point of view, the proposals of theRomanian business environment, as well as the international community referring to thesimplification of the administrative formalities of registration should be kept in viewthrough analogy. The control post-registration is considered more efficient that the socalledattempt of prevention against certain irregularities in the conducted activity,especially since in the EGO no. 26/2000, art. 14, it is provided the possibility to controlcertain activities prohibited or limited by law, by obtaining the necessary authorizations,there where considered appropriate, before the commencement of the alleged activity.Additionally, the penalty endorsed in this article is severe enough, since it refers tothe legal dissolution of the respective legal entity.Another substantial modification brought by the EOG no. 37/2003 is that referringto the public utility recognition of an association/foundation, which problem raised a seriesof controversies. If initially, the text of the EOG no. 26/2000 established definite criteria ofgranting this statute (given the possible consequences of the access tot public funds), thetext of the EOG no. 37/2003 leaves place for the eventual subjective interpretations.It is quite uncertain the legal definition of “public utility” as “any activity aimingto achieve benefic purposes in domains of general and/or communitarian public interest”,since it is hard to determine the appreciation of the degree of “benefic”.In the same time, if until March 2003 the terms of granting/rejecting the statute ofpublic utility are relatively short, after the entrance into force of the EOG no. 37/2003, theyRevista Română de Statistică – Supliment Trim IV/2012 101

cannot be, under any circumstance, shorter than 120 days since the day of submission of therequest and the additional documents.Indeed, such term may be useful for the purpose control for which it solicited theregistration as a public utility legal entity, yet the situation should be circumstantiated if itis kept in view that, for example, there are foundations/associations of international level,placed to beneficiate from certain facilities, but which do not intend to expressly obtainthem, but the moral recognition of certain special distinctions in the social life of thecountry.It is yet noticed that this quality of public legal entity may be recognized as opelegis for certain structures. For example, the Romanian Fine Arts Union is a legal entity ofpublic utility, recognized status, which is right, before the issue of the legal instrumentsalready mentioned; still, the same statute has the Romanian Olympic and SportsCommittee, by virtue of the Law no. 69/9.05.2000, so that certain moral prejudices are stillpossible, by qualifying the statute of public utility legal entity by means of law, with noadditional intervention of the executive authority endorsing, after all, the whole society, nomatter the political inheritance. It is worth noticing that according to the art. 191 NCC,legal entities of public law are constituted by law, which constitution by means ofmemorandum of association is possible only in special circumstances.In French law, foundations' public utility status is regulated by Law no. 87-571 ofthe 23 th of July 1987, which, for the first time, offered a legal definition to the concept: “Afoundation is the deed by which one or several persons decide to assign irrevocably somegoods, rights, or resources to the fulfilment of a public interest and not-for-profit purpose.”Since the statute aims to create a legal person, the foundation has no legal authority untilthe entrance into force of the decree within the National Council qualifying public utilityrecognition. It acquires then the statute of foundation of public utility”.The general interest may be philanthropic, educational, scientific, social, family orcultural, and the list can be exhaustive but it should not concern private or personal interestsof the founders. The general interest to consider may as well be national or local. Thefounder of a public utility foundation may be either an individual or a groupe ofindividuals, having or not a pre-existent legal entity. Thus, companies (L. n° 87-571, art. 182, art. 1) or public institutions of commercial and industrial character (L. of the 4 th of July1990) may create a public utility foundation.Foundations statutes did not meet, not even at present, a unification at theEuropean provisions level. Thus, the differences of applicable regime are significantenough, starting with the level of interest for which they can constitute – as for exampleFrance, Great Britain, Spain and Portugal, where the domestic law imposes theirconstitution exclusively in the purpose of accomplishing a general interest, while inRomania, Germany or Greece, the authorization of legal persons with non-profit interest isallowed also for the interests of a community or even of a particular interest (such as theinsurance of education for the founding members' children). In certain legal systems, suchas the Austrian, the Belgian or the Italian, law institutes distinct legal systems depending onthe interest ensued – the accomplishment of a general or of a particular interest.In 2003, the European Commission adopted an action plan endorsing the necessaryresolutions for the modernization of the commercial law, within which the problem of thepossibility/necessity of unification of the legal system of the foundations and even thecreation of a specific European legal framework of regulation of the foundation. Within thelaunched debate, there was outlined the necessity of unitary regulation of the provisions inmatter, the subsidiary application of the domestic law, the authorization of the foundationsto exercise commercial activities accessory to the moral interest for which they are102Revista Română de Statistică – Supliment Trim IV/2012

constituted, with the use of the incomes thus obtained during the accomplishment of theobjectives. In the same time, there appeared certain reservations regarding the domesticcontrol practices, while prefiguring a special interest for the European foundation's statute,left, until our days, in a project stage.ConclusionsBy concluding, both doctrine and legal practice have noticed certain possibleissues appeared actually once with the application of the provisions in the legal instrumentsmentioned above, since they are considered as aspects to be solved by the legislativeauthority (or the executive authority, given that it is empowered to issue legal instrumentswith provisory character and submitted to the parliamentary debate, in view of adoption).Such perspectives could refer punctually to the recognition of the capacity ofanticipate use of the associations/foundations, to the more concrete regulation of the legalsystem of constitution or dissolution of federations, to the correlation of the appealsregarding the alleviation of certain deficiencies of the memoranda of association with trialterms referring to the procedure of summoning of common law or to the express delegationto specialized authorities of coordination and effective control of the conducted activitiesaiming to accomplish the purpose of the foundation/association.References[1]. Alfandari, E., Associations et fondations en Europe, Régime juridique et fiscal, Juris-Service Publishing House, 1994[2]. Lecourt, B., Fondation européenne : synthèse des réponses à la consultationpublique,Commission européenne, nov. 2009, Revue des sociétés, 2009[3]. Communication de la Commission au Conseil et au Parlement européen – Un Planpour moderniser le droit des sociétés et améliorer le gouvernement d’entreprise dansl’Union européenne, COM(2003)284 final Communiqué Comm. CE no IP/09/270, 16February 2009[4]. European Foundation Center, Comparative Highlights of Foundation Law, 2007Revista Română de Statistică – Supliment Trim IV/2012 103

Approach to Risks of Marketing ActivityLecturer Dan NASTASE PhDdnastconstruct@yahoo.com“Artifex” University of BucharestAbstractRisk is a phenomenon that should not be neglected in the decision-making process.It is a fact because there is uncertainty and the impossibility of predicting the exact time ofits occurrence in otherwords, even if there is a particular risk likely to occur or occurs.Key words: risk, certainty, uncertainty, business, marketing, management,economics, anticipation information.JEL Classification:L22Risk is a characteristic of actions which can be completed through several results,knowing the probability of each outcome. Uncertainty expressed insecurity about thefuture. Economic uncertainty is unpredictable source or nature of the economic process orincompleteness of information available at any given time.Risk involves taking more or less conscious choice made results. He refers to theprobability of success-failure action taken based on a certain decision. Risk can be sourcedeither from ontological indeterminacy of the result of the action or the fragility ofknowledge we have at any given time.Risk is the uncertainty of the occurrence of a phenomenon which, if happens,could have influences on project objectives. Risks relate mainly to uncertainty surroundingthe future events. He expresses the impact of an event in the future is the present economicactivities. In other words, risk is the uncertainty associated with obtaining a result. Risk canoccur in the following situations:- When a certain event occurs, but its outcome is uncertain;- When the result of a phenomenon or event is known in detail, but there isuncertainty about the occurrence of that phenomenon or event;- When both event and its impact on company goals are uncertain.Size uncertainty is measured by probabilities, which in turn can bedetermined by mathematical calculations or statistical observations ofsimilar phenomena in the past. Assess the effects of the likelihood is vitalto know whether or not it is necessary to assume that risk.In business risk is a permanent influence of its holding good way. It canhave a huge impact on any project because success can only beguaranteed when knowledge of all risks that may affect, while adoptingthe necessary measures to prevent or mitigate them.Analyzing these considerations, we draw some basic features of the concept ofeconomic risk:• is a constant risk faced by any participant in economic life, regardless of thescale of its business;• is a risk that harm both financial and moral;• risk action is irreversible, meaning that its effects, once produced, can not beremoved except with some additional expenses expensive.104Revista Română de Statistică – Supliment Trim IV/2012

Thus, the classical theory believes that risk represents the loss that occursfollowing the adoption of certain decisions and the implementation of certain types ofaction.Decision risks are frequently encountered in marketing, with information risks andthe risks methodologicalBut we are dealing with external risks companies in this category distinguished:• legal risks (eg adoption of legislation does not encourage free enterprise and thespirit of competition between operators can seriously affect business activity);• contractual risks (those risks are related to the fulfillment or non-fulfillment ofcontractual obligations by a partner entity).Attitude businesses can be classified into two main types, depending on thereaction you have to this phenomenon:- Proactive - is based on the allocation of significant resources (financial,material and human) to predict future events junk.- Reactive - is considering addressing and solving various problems as theyarise.Obviously proactive attitude generates long term much higher profits for the traderthan reactive. But we must not forget that this kind of attitude should be supported by astrong financial and human support, which not many businesses and can afford.Risk can be represented by any element that has a measurable probability to deviate fromthe plan originally set.Strategies and projects are elements that allow a company foreshadowing actualreality and then dealing with the expected outputs.To achieve company objectives required the development of a set of activitiesMarket risk is the risk that a portfolio is subject because of variables such as shares, bonds,foreign exchange, interest rate and commodity prices.Is risk factors affecting supply and demand for products and services evolve indifferent directions and intensities, producing undesirable change in liquidity, volatility andthe price by determining the continuous dynamics of exchanging conditions affecting sizeresults of current and future participants. Companies try to manage risks actively puttingmore emphasis on volatility.Liquidity risk is related to conduct business in markets that have a low degree ofliquidity. It occurs when a company interested in selling an asset, not as one market can notbe interested in acquiring him, when they operate in a market short on cash, or when facedwith a sudden and unexpected cash out .Operational risk refers to the exposure of financial loss due to malfunction orinternal activities of an entity Gap or events, trends or external changes that could not beknown and preventable internal system of organization and control and ethical standardsset.Participants know that the investment processes and operational risk can not beeliminated completely and that work must be conducted such that its negative results are assmall. The main elements of operational risk include personal risks, process, transaction,technology and control who can perform actions such as: error, incompetence, fraud,overcoming the limits of system defects, information and communications affecting thefinal results of all entities.Legal risk arises when state authorities to take the regulations that lead torestricting conduct business activities in various forms, which will adversely affect itsresults.Revista Română de Statistică – Supliment Trim IV/2012 105

References[1]. Anghelache C. Tratat de statistică teoretică şi economică. Bucureşti: EdituraEconomică, 2008[2]. Beck, U. (1992) Risk Society, London: Sage[3]. Cox D.R., Donnelly C.A. Principles of Applied Statistics. Cambridge University Press.Cambridge, 2011[4]. Isaic-Maniu A., Mitruţ C., Voineagu V. Statistica pentru managementul afacerilor,Bucureşti, 1999.[5]. Jaba, E. – „Statistica” (Statistics), Editura Economica, Bucharest, 2007106Revista Română de Statistică – Supliment Trim IV/2012

Outsourcing Human ResourcesLecturer Daniel ŞTEFAN, PhDstefandaniel73@yahoo.com“Dimitrie Cantemir” Christian University, BucharestAbstractWe try to explain why entities opting for short-term contracts. These are lesscommon/usual forms of employment and to explain that there are two approaches:What are the intensions behind the use of these methods and arguments?The circumstances must solve using such methods?What factors influence a company’s decision to adopt these unusual methods for theemployment contracts rather than open indefinitely-term contracts.Key words: outsourcing human resources, human capital, employment contractindefinitelyJEL Classification: J24Conceptual approachThe most important models of outsourcing labor force are represented by shorttermemployment contracts and employee leasing. These alternatives represent differentmethods for reaching an optimum of human resources, from the point of view of flexibilityand stability.We are trying to explain why entities opt for short-term contract or for employeeleasing. These are less usual employment forms and, in order to be able to explain them,two approaches are imposed:- which are the intentions behind using these methods and reasoning?- what situations must be resolved for appealing to such methods?The most important papers tend to consider short-term contracts and employeeleasing as indicators of numerical flexibility. But we appreciate that the quantitativestability of staff, due to the necessity of compensating absenteeism and the lack of qualifiedhuman resources, becomes just as important as any other strategic objective of thecompany 1 .The majority of researches and studies dedicated to atypical methods ofemploying labor force was realized in the United States of America and in the UnitedKingdom of Great Britain and have tended towards ignoring judicial and legal constraintsregarding the commitments of companies towards staff, which is not completely surprisingbecause the market of labor force in these countries is relatively non-regulated.Legal restrictions and fiscal systems regarding the outsourcing of humanresources. Non-standardized employment contracts generically include "those contractswhich derive from the standard form and from which it is expected that the average ofcollaboration hours would be full-time, the period to be undetermined and they will be1 Atkinson, J. - Flexibility, uncertainty and manpower management. Institute of Manpower Studies,Report No. 89. Brighton: Sussex University, 1984.Revista Română de Statistică – Supliment Trim IV/2012 107

performed at the workplace designated by the employer, under its supervision" 2 . We musthighlight a prime element which determines their special nature. They will not beperformed on an undetermined period, this aspect corresponding to the concept ofcontingent labor.Even if the general theoretical notions regarding the forms of these atypicalemployment contract models coincide and find common ground, the legal and judicialnational divergences will not reach consensus any time soon. It is necessary to recognizethe conceptual expansion of employment contract categories, expansion supported by verydifferent approaches, definitions and national institutionalizations, sometimes evendivergent. As Gonos also observed, "each discrete form of what has been labeled ascontingent labor force represents a distinct social commitment, of which viable continuitydepends on the presence of a favorable regulation environment and of the presence of alegal doctrine which supports it; either this, or the complete absence of institutionalbarriers, absence which will be used to the advantage of its own legitimacy" 3 .A comparison between the Norwegian system and the British-American one willreveal certain dimensions which will vary depending on the national, fiscal and legalsystem. These dimensions are important for revealing the nature of atypical employmentcontracts, their differentiation between countries and to what extent the mechanismsidentified inside them explains their functioning.Fluctuation of demand for human capital and market riskNumerical flexibility regards the intention and ability of optimizing the number ofemployees focused on one field or project, for fulfilling tasks or of fluctuations of demandfor labor force. The idea of "necessity" for this type of flexibility varies from one companyto another. If numerical flexibility is regarded as a vital element, then the introduction ofatypical employment contracts will probably be considered.First of all, we suppose that numerical flexibility - by this meaning the introduction of theemployee leasing concept in the company's approaches regarding employment contracts - isassociated to the fluctuations of demand on the market. In case a company experiencesdemand fluctuations or other seasonal changes, the introduction of atypical contracts willact as a buffer solution. And the more employees/ hour are needed, the more labor forcewill be recruited by means of employee leasing, rather than by means of long-termcontracts. This way, the company will be able to interrupt contracts when fluctuations onthe market hit a standstill, as associated costs are minimal, because temporary employeeshave no assertions for a stable, long-term job 4 .The volume of employments by employee leasing or by fixed-term contracts ismodified inversely proportional with demand fluctuations on the labor market.When there is a high degree of uncertainty regarding clients' preferences, the levelof request or actions of competitors, the entities will tend to anticipate the need to adjust thehuman capital, both quantitatively and qualitatively. If a company wishes to reduce thesphere of a certain activity, the first thing will be dismissing employees, which attractsadditional costs. If the personnel submitted to dismissals is employed on continuous2 Polivka. A. E. - Into contingent and alternative employment: Monthly Labor Review, October 1996(pp. 55-74).3 Gonos, G. - The contest over "employer" status in the postwar United States: The case of TemporaryHelp Firms. Law and Society Review, 31(l), 83-110. (2006).4 Davis-Blake, A., & Uzzi, B. – Determinants of employment externalization: A study of temporaryWorkers and independent contractors. Administrative Science Quarterly, 38, 195-223-2005.108Revista Română de Statistică – Supliment Trim IV/2012

contracts, the dismissal will cause prejudices, both on the financial side and on the side ofintellectual capital, affecting its reputation of being a trusted employer and diminishing themorale of those remaining to work within the company.However, this cost will be substantially reduced if the atypical methods ofcontracting human capital will be applied to those activities which are subject to a high riskto the market's conditions. On a market characterized by a high level of risks, companieswill want to outsource human resources by contracting employees though employee leasingor short-term contracts.The higher the level of risk of a specific market, the more human resources will beused through alternative means, such as employee leasing.Power of trade unionsAn element which affects the use of short-term labor contracts is the powermanifested by trade unions. On one hand, trade unions are generally refractory tooutsourcing human resources because these are more difficult to be organized and have,most of times, different objectives than the permanent personnel. As the percentage ofemployees which are trade union members increases, it tends to oppose even moreresistance to the tendencies of companies of turning to external sources for human capital.And this resistance tends to have even more success, diminishing the temptation of theenterprises to employ capital by means of leasing or fixed-term contracts. On the otherhand, outsourcing human resources is a strong instrument for antagonizing the power oftrade unions.When the power of trade unions is fragile, the company will prefer to rely onstandard employment contracts. The critical factor which the company considers is the costinvolved by terminating an employment contract. And in an environment where there is notrade union power, dismissing and employee, even if he is employed on an undeterminedperiod, no longer seems so problematic.The professional protection of employees is dependent on governmentalregulations and the power of trade unions. As this power increases, the company willacknowledge the difficulty of concluding a standard contract and will turn to humanresource leasing and short-term contracts.The relation between short-term contracts and employee leasingThe relation between the two variables: employee leasing and short-term contractsis interesting. On one hand, options can be perceived as direct alternatives, when acompany finds itself in situations without a high level of risk, as is, e.g. the situation ofcompensating the absence of employees on maternity leave or medical leave. That is why,when an alternative is chosen, no interest is manifested, normally, towards the other. In nocase we expect that there will be inclines of expectations from the alternative which was notchosen. On the other hand, there are two mechanisms.References[1]. Atkinson, J. – Flexibility, uncertainty and manpower management. Institute ofManpower Studies, Report No. 89. Brighton: Sussex University, 1984.[2]. Davis-Blake, A., & Uzzi, B. – Determinants of employment externalization: A study oftemporary Workers and independent contractors. Administrative Science Quarterly, 38,195-223-2005.[3]. Gonos, G. – The contest over "employer" status in the postwar United States: The caseof Temporary Help Firms. Law and Society Review, 31(l), 83-110. (2006).Revista Română de Statistică – Supliment Trim IV/2012 109

[4]. Houseman, S. N. – Temporary, part-time and contract employment in the UnitedStates: New Evidence from an employment survey. Institute of EmploymentResources, Kalamazoo, MI, 2004.[5]. Polivka. A. E. – Into contingent and alternative employment: Monthly Labor Review,October 1996.[6]. Roman Costantin – Finances of public institutions, Economica Publishing House,Bucharest, 2011.[7]. Ştefan Daniel – Financial management, Bren Publishing House, Bucharest, 2010.[8]. Williamson, O. E. – Markets and hierarchies: Analysis and antitrust implications. NewYork: Free Press, 1975.110Revista Română de Statistică – Supliment Trim IV/2012

Theories on the Use of Inflation in EconomicAnalysisAndreea BALTAC, PhD Studentandreea.madan@yahoo.com“Artifex”University of BucharestAbstractThe term inflation, in a first phase, was related to currency, money later and isnow commonly used to describe the prices. This change of paradigm seems to originate in asequence of unfortunate events, but probably inevitable.The article presents the main theories that have led to the definition of the conceptof "inflation" highlighting the successive accepțiile that economists – starting with thoseclassics, contemporary of Adam Smith – they have assigned over time of this economicphenomenon.Key words: inflation, price, economic analysis, deflator, indicatorJEL Classification: E31In the 19th century the inflation was directly related to the devaluing and notraising prices. According to a press release from the year 1919 of the Federal Reserve,"inflation is a process of additional currency multiplier baseless by a correspondingincrease in the production of goods."After about 60 years, quote taken from the Federal Reserve has ceased to be valid,so that in 1978, the term inflation result causes: the evolution of the exchange rate, theincrease in labour costs, weather and excessive growth of money.Accordingly, the definition of inflation was the victim of a "war" theory ofmonetary growth and increase the general level of prices. What was once described as amonetary issue is presented now as a price effect. This change of direction has complicatedthe position antiinflaţie, by supporters simply because of inflation based on the price levelmay have, so with I also stated, many causes, which hampers identification solutions toeliminate this phenomenon. When inflation was a question of money with a single location,namely the Central Bank, and a single solution – reducing the rate of monetary expansion.Classical economists, Adam Smith's contemporaries, were very careful withdefining the exact economic terms because they had language that was at the base of theconstruction of an emerging science.Among their first contributions was and the distinction between real and nominalprices, so that the actual price (value) of a product was defined as the effort required toproduce it, while in nominal terms (money) was characterized only by the cost in money(fixed in terms of gold or other precious metals). So said the value of goods is the laws ofnature-labor effort – and nominal price differs depending on the availability of metals andprecious sovereign laws that define a nation's money.Although classical economists believed that the fluctuation of the price of goodsmay have temporarily disruptive influences on the economy (such as the production of theversatile resource redistribution between the parties to a contract with the fixed nominalprice), finally this changes only served to change the scale by which to measure the actualRevista Română de Statistică – Supliment Trim IV/2012 111

price. The idea that changes in the quantity of money affects only nominal price of goodswas supported by many of the early classical economists, of which the best known wasDavid Hume.Theory was developed much more rigorously in the early 20th century, theEconomist Irving Fisher, becoming known as the "quantitative theory of money".The first generation of economists, Adam Smith's successors in the 19th century,were very interested in paper money, and their way of reporting the causes changes in thecost of a good is based on three distinct sources:- change the value you get in real resource costs cosiderare a good;- price change (nominal), due mainly to the metal content of the coin;- devaluate, due to modficările of the currency relative to quantitativemetal that Monad.The term inflation was described originally by considering source relating to thedepreciation of the currency, but at the end of the 19th century the distinction between coinand money was becoming more blurred. So at the beginning of the 20th century,economists had tended to report the inflation of the term using any medium of circulationof money assigned to commercial applications. But on this reporting changes to the terminflation has been raised a question mark. While the amount of money reported in the massof precious metal was easily determined, things complicau when someone try to determinethe quantity in circulation that go beyond commercial demand.In the first decades of the 20th century, economists seem to arrive at a definitionby which excess in the circulation of money can be explained only by the effect had on theprice level. Such notions of inflation and prices have become linked in a wayincomprehensible.This change in rhetoric can have an insignificant impact on economy quantitativetheorists because it seems implausible that they may be an important distinction betweenthe two ideas. From their point of view of increasing the quantity of currency related to thecommercial demand can have only one effect – increasing prices, and an increase in theprice level may have a single origin – an increasing amount of money corresponding totheir application.However, some economists have tried to maintain the distinction between anincrease in the level of prices based on "printing" extra appropriate currency trade andgrowth, a result of the partial trade for a definite money offer.The link with the price level inflation proved to be another important crossroadsfor humanity. The appearance of the general theory of Keynes, in 1936, was consideredhostages quantitative theory on monetariste theory that dominated macroeconomics for 40years.Calling the belief that uncommitted resources regularly and persistently – an ideabacked up at the time of the great depression worldwide – keynisian theory challenged theneed for the link between the amount of money and the general level of prices.Furthermore, argued that the overall evolution of prices may be due to other causes thanmoney.In addition to the separation of monetary prices, keynisiană revolution seems toseparate the term inflation money situation and to redefine it as a description. In this waythe inflation became synonymous with any price increase and that is why nowadays in veryfew cases distinguish between rising prices and inflation.Referring to inflation as a consequence of too many money, economists have beenforced to fight with the operational problem: "how much is a lot?". Quantitative theoryprovided a clear answer to this question: "too much money" means a monetary expansion112Revista Română de Statistică – Supliment Trim IV/2012

accompanied by a rise in the general level of prices. When economic theory keynisianăchallenged the direct link between money and the price level, inflation has lost theassociation with money and has come to be associated primarily with the State.Without being linked to the offer of money, any price increase per to be claimedby the term inflation. In this sense, when this term is used to describe measuresantiinflationiste prices could be characterized as being against any price increases,including salaries and increase. According to monetariştilor this thing is unacceptable, anda antiinflaţionistă exercise is concerned with a particular type of price increase – theresulting growth by creating excessive currency. Seen in this respect the objective oftargeting a sustainable level of inflation has become a goal for central banks much morerationally.The great inflation of the 1970s-1980s was considered, along with the GreatDepression of 1929-1932, the biggest failure of policitilor and serious money in the 19thcentury. During that period the inflation exceeded the level of 10% in all the places, OECDa notable exception being Germany.Although economic history was constantly faced with periods of inflation andeven hyperinflation, Inflation is regarded by economists as a single episode. In comparisonwith the period of the great Inflation, other periods have been assigned to the two worldwars, or other internal events that have led to major changes in the economy and politics ofa country and which finally resulted in the response of the Government needs massivefunding deficits by issuing currency (seigniorage).The negative consequences of inflationary phenomenon of the 1970s-1980scontributed to change perception on inflation both in terms of monetary policy anddecision-makers at the individual level of everyday living.Opinion polls concerning the economic conditions reveals the desire of citizens tolive in a stable environment in terms of the evolution of prices. About price stability candiscuss when, on average, prices neither increase (inflation) or decrease (deflation), butremain stable over time.Theory and economic literature is replete with information about the importanceand benefits of price stability and the causes which gave rise to the growth or decreasingprices:All the arguments presented in the literature suggests that a Central Bank thatmaintains price stability contributes to the attainment of major economic growth andeconomic stability, standard of living and employment of labor. Therefore, in the decadesthat followed the period Of Inflation, registered a remarkable covergenţă on the need todeclare the price stability as the primary objective of monetary policy. Price stability hasbecome the focal point because it is considered at the same time an achievable goal in themedium term but also a precondition for proper functioning of a market economy.Treaty on European Union assigned the European Central Bank (ECB) mandate ofkeeping stabilitătii at european level, objective defined in quantitative terms as the averageannual increase in the harmonised index of consumer prices HICP, under 2%. The ECB'sGoverning Council has set the objective of keeping inflation below, but close to 2%. Thistarget is considering a positive edge suitable for avoiding the risk of deflation, but sufficientto solve any implications created by the existing differential between euro area States, suchthat a State cannot survive in the euro zone with inflation rates too low, or even deflation.Moreover, this target and consider the possibility of a mild supraestimări real inflationmeasured by the HICP.Revista Română de Statistică – Supliment Trim IV/2012 113

Despite this recognition indicated the need for stability, the notion is periodicallysubject to debate, which led ultimately to a lack of consensus on what should be understandby stability. This lack of consensus exists between academia and central banks.All these concerns about inflation have influenced and the methodology ofcalculation of price indices. The problem of measuring error inflation was addressed for thefirst time in 1961, in the US, by the University of Chicago, led by George Stigler. The mainrecommendation of this Commission was the need to adopt a rigorous probabilisticmethods for determining sample of shops and products, but also a greater formality todetermine the specifications of the products.In December 1996, all in the US, was released the Boskin Commission reportwhose impact is recognized worldwide, both in the academic world, but statistics andpractice among central banks. Boskin Commission has singled out a number of possibleerrors in the measurement of consumer price index, such as: substitution of the products inthe stores change indices, the difficulties in measuring the quality changes and the need tointroduce new products. The analysis carried out by the Commission on u.s. data Boskinindicated that the effect of these inadecvări can be major statistical, leading to anoverestimation of inflation measured at the level of the year, with the value estimatedbetween 0.8-1.6 percentage points.In addition to these measurement problems there is a general question relating tothe coverage of the price indices used for the assessment of price stability. There may becases in which the use of a general price index – such as the GDP deflator – which includesall final goods prices and services produced in an economy and can be considerably morerelevant for investment and savings decisions.Price index can be characterized as a factor which measures the relative change ofthis aggregate values as a result of changes in prices. As a result, all important formulas formeasuring price indices can be expressed as a weighted average of the price relativeweights are represented by the contribution of each product (article) in total value. Werecall here the best known formulas for measuring price indices, expressed as a weightedaverage of the relative prices: Laspeyres index, Paasche index and indices Walsh Torngvist,respectively. Expressed as the geometric mean of the Laspeyres and Paasche indexes, indexFischer can be considered a function of expenditure weights derived directly from the totalamount.The relations existing between the most important four price indices are definedby assigning to the centralized aggregates defined by the System of national accounts(SNA). National accounts system is subject to periodic revisions, the latest being in 2008.The most appropriate framework for the presentation of existing price indices inthe statistical system is the table uses resources.Resources and uses tables serve statistical and analytical objectives. The mainstatistical needs may be covered are:- identify gaps and incoherence that affects the underlying data;- and the calculation of weighting of indexes that measure price and volume;- getting estimates in a residual manner (for obtaining a variable, it begins byestimating all other variables, the resulting difference is unknown), especiallyfor the production and final consumption of specific products;- checking and improving coherence, reliability and exhaustiveness of the datacontained in the tables and uses resources and derived figures (such as thoseof the production accounts).114Revista Română de Statistică – Supliment Trim IV/2012

Also considering some basic concepts about the price statistics – the variousformulas used to calculate the indices, the significance of the "consumer basket", thedifference between the price index and price change, etc.Price indices have a long history and a wide variety of use, ranging from adjustingthe level of salaries, pensions and payments included in a long-term contract, deflatingcontruilor national aggregates up to macroeconomic policy-making.The easiest and most early example of index was proposed by William Fleetwoodin 1707, which intended to measure the average changes of prices paid by students of theUniversity of Oxford, over two centuries and a half. Another example of the 18th centurywas calculated index of the Massachusetts legislature in 1780, which aims to index theresult paid soldiers fighting in the war revulţionarilor against England.The 19th century is considered the most interesting moment in the history of thetheory. In 1823, Joseph Lowe has published a study on the agriculture, Commerce andfinancial services. In the framework of this study, the author has developed the concept ofthe index of price change in monetary value as a set, or nomenclature of goods andservices. This method is used nowadays. Diewert 1 (1993) argues that Lowe can beconsidered the father of price indices. Later in the 19th century, were made other importantcontributions to the theory of indices, including those of the Laspeyres and Paasche (1871)(1874), whose names are associated with the most common types of price indices. Marshall(1887) claimed the use of chain indices, indices measure price trends from one year toanother link together to estimate the evolution of indices over long periods of time.In 1922, Irving Fisher published his monumental for those considered theory ofprecocupaţi: The Making of Index Numbers. This paper has singled out Fisher's interest oninflation and his support for a quantitative theory of money. Fisher has investigated theproperties of hundreds of types of possible formulas for measuring price indices, preferita'sfiiind the geometric mean of the Laspeyres and Paasche indexes, known today as the Fisherindex.In 1924, Konüs published a paper in which this foundation of economic theory ofcost of living index (COLI), which is designed to measure changes in the cost to maintainthe same standard of living (utility or welfare). In reality, consumers do not buy the sameset of products and services in different periods, adjusting their own expenses according toprice changes and other factors that intervene in the economy. A counterpart to produceSHEETS is fixed cost index of goods.Another important approach within number theory was that of Divisia, in 1926,which is based on the assumption that prices and quantities change over time in acontinuously and instantly. So there:Consumer price index (CPI), which are the best known price indices measure pricechanges of goods and services from the perspective of a consumer. The CPI is based onprices of goods and services purchased by households. To ensure consistency of the priceindices at european level, has developed Harmonized L index of consumer prices (HICP),which is a harmonized index of consumer prices for all EU countries and which takemeasurements euro area inflation.The production price index (PPI) measures the price developments of transaction,monthly changes in the price of crude marketing of products and services for domestic andinternational.1 Erwin Diewert, University Of British ColombiaRevista Română de Statistică – Supliment Trim IV/2012 115

Their purchasing power (PPC) compares price levels between countries or regions.They are used to convert prices expressed in national currency into a common currency, inorder to eliminate the differences between the price levels between countries or regions andcan calculate purchasing power current/real resident population.As economic phenomenon, social and monetary inflation was located in the centerof attention of researchers belonging to different historical periods and schools whichintegrates in monetary-financial thinking. Causes, intensity, forms of manifestation, but,especially, the effects generated by inflation cannot identify, in their entirety, with the samecircumstances and events that this phenomenon it has known in other areas and countries ofthe world.Finally investigates the relevance of differences and relations existing between itstypes of price indices:IPC under the pressure of the improvement – presents aspects regarding use,calculation and measurement of the statistical impact of administrated prices and taxchanges on inflation;statistical assessment of the State of convergence of the inflation rate in Romaniaarticleproposes a model of the statistical evaluation of the State of compliance with thenominal convergence criteria relating to price stability. An evaluation synthesis of theharmonised index of consumer prices, a statistical analysis on the evolution of inflation inRomania and the existing gap towards the reference value for the nominal convergencecriteria;CPI and GDP price deflator – – presents the main differences between the twotypes of price indices, calling the concepts and definitions used, the coverage of the twoindices and the proposed calculation formulas for the two indices;Prices and purchasing power parity – presents the price level and purchasingpower in Romania compared to the price level of the EU Member States.References[1]. Anghelache, C., Fetcu (Stoica), A.E. et al. (2012) – “Main Aspects regarding theConsumer Price Index”, Scientific Research Themes/Studies Communications at theNational Seminary „Octav Onicescu”, Romanian Statistical Review Trim. 1/2012, pp.39-44[2]. Aukrust, O. (1977) – „Inflation in the Open Economy. An Norwegian Model”, inKlein, L. B. and W. S. Sâlant (eds.), World Wide Inflation. Theory and RecentExperience. Brookings, Washington D.C., p.130116Revista Română de Statistică – Supliment Trim IV/2012

Statistical Indicators Used in the Analysis ofPortfolios of Financial InstrumentsLecturer Mădălina - Gabriela ANGHEL PhD Studentmadalinagabriela_anghel@yahoo.com„Artifex” University of BucharestAbstractThe analysis of economic phenomena, including those pertaining to the specificactivity of the stock market, can be started by using a set of specific indicators, by whichcan be determined the overall trend of the data subject to present research. In this sense, inthe literature of our country and from abroad, there have been defined indicators thatdefine both the variation of the terms of the series, as well as the values of the average thatcharacterize it.Key words: time series, statistical indicator, financial assets, return, portfolioJEL Classification: G11The analysis and forecast of economic phenomena, in general and the financial, inparticular, requires a precise knowledge of their history and identification of legitimate ontheir past performance, from which predictions can be made highly confidence on theevolution of the study in a straightforward time. The database is based on analysis of theevolution phenomena in time consists of time series (or chronological series).The purpose of the time series analysis is to understand and modeling themechanism of evolution of the terms of the series, as well as defining specific regularitiesof the evolution. Based on these models is possible to make effective predictions about thefuture evolution of the phenomenon analyzed.That the result based on the time series analysis to be correct and usable inforecasting of phenomena research subject is necessary that the length of the observedperiod to be long enough to allow estimation of an appropriate quality model, to capturereal-generating mechanism of the phenomenon respectively to identify the components oflong-term evolution.At the same time the data should remain comparable over time. In this respect,conditions evolving phenomenon must remain essentially the same. So, it is not indicatedfor use in developing models, time series covering the period of major political andeconomic changes, war or other exceptional events 1 .Time series analysis and identification of objective laws/models that adequatelydescribe the evolution of the research subject, followed by making predictions based on theresults of this research is a challenge for all specialists in this field. This statement isespecially true for financial data series, as it has some characteristics that make them moredifficult in econometric modeling.1 Rahman, Atta Ur – „Esimation and forecasting of financial time serie”, International Conference onApplied Statistics, Bucharest, 2008Revista Română de Statistică – Supliment Trim IV/2012 117

Econometric modeling of financial variables is intended to give the models thatpredict better their future values in respect to account of the inertia of performing theprocess analyzed and the relative predictability of their development in response todeviations from past observed.Econometric modeling of financial variables take account of their characteristics,namely 2 : specific form of distribution of financial series, a concept which meansthat these data sets has the following feature: not follow a normal distribution, given the series, most times,leptocurtice, which implies a large deviation from the mean extremevalues considered population. In this case, it is found that the value ofKurtosis index for financial time series has higher baseline values 3; financial series tend to be asymmetric, leading to the emergence ofSkewness index values different from zero. waste serial correlation; heteroskedasticity.A variable X is called homoskedasticity if registered values have a constantdispersion. In the financial literature, in most cases, the homoskedasticity problem occurs inconnection with the residuals terms of a regression function. The respect ofhomoskedasticity of residual terms is necessary that the estimating of the regressionfunction to be relevant. One of the implicit assumptions of the models above said stabilityin time of the dispersion return (homoskedasticity).Practice activity confirmed that homoskedasticity hypothesis has been adoptedonly for reasons of simplification of econometric modeling 3 . In generally, homoskedasticityhypothesis is verified accidentally and for short periods of time, it is not usable for largetime series, which are commonly used in the capital market analysis.Indicators expressed in absolute values 4Absolute change (increase) with fixed base: t / 1 y t y1 ; t 2,nAbsolute change (increase) with chain base:t/ t1 yt yt1 ; t 2,nIndicators expressed in relative values(Increase/Decrease) index change with fixed base:yItt /1 ; t 2,ny1(%) yI / 1 tt 100; t 2,ny 12 Sima, I.A. –"Stochastic valuation models and characteristics of financial time series", InternationalConference "Financial and monetary policies in European Union", Academy of Economic Studies,Department of Finance, 20073 Boshnakov, G.N.; Iqelan, B.M. – „Generation of Time Series with Given Spectral Properties”,Journal of Time Series Analysis, Vol. 30, Issue 3, 20094 Anghelache, C. – 'Treaty of theoretical and economic statistics”, Economic Publishing House, 2008118Revista Română de Statistică – Supliment Trim IV/2012

(Increase/Decrease) index change with chain base:yI / 1 tt t ; t 2,nyt1(%) yI / 1 tt t100; t 2,nyt1(Increase/Decrease) rate with fixed base: /1 1001/1 t y t yRt100y1y1; t 2,n(%)I1100 I 100 t /1t /1(Increase/Decrease) rate with chain base: / 1 100 1/ 1 t ty t yRtt t100y1yt1; t 2,n(%)I1100I 100t / t1t / t1The absolute value of a percentage of increase (decrease) rate with fixed base: /1 yAt 1t /1 Rt/1 100The absolute value of a percentage of increase (decrease) rate with chain base: / 11/ 1t t yAtt tRt/ t1100Average indicators of time seriesAverage is one of the fundamental indicators of any set of data and so time seriestype. In the time series, the method of determining this indicator varies depending on thetype series (moments or intervals) 5 .So:The average level of a dynamic series of intervals can be determined by adding theterms of the series and dividing the sum so obtained by the total number of observationsanalyzed. Relationship for calculating this indicator can be transcribed as:nytty 1 nUnlike the above relationship, to calculate the average of a series of momentsdynamic is more complex and can be summarized as:5 Anghelache, C; Anghelache, G.V.– „Utilization of the chronological series within the stochasticprocesses”, Metalurgia International, Special Issue no. 4, 2009Revista Română de Statistică – Supliment Trim IV/2012 119

ynyi1i2crn1 ytii1it2i1If the times t 1 , t 2 , …, t n are equally spaced, the weighted average chronological is asimple average chronological and can be determined as:y1y y2 ... y ... niy 22crn 1Average increase of a dynamic series:nt/ t12 /1 t n y y n 1n n 1n 1Average index change (increase, decrease) of a dynamic series:n 1 1/ 1 nyI n I/1 n1nt t Ini1y1 I 1 The average rate of increase (decrease) of a dynamic series R 100R I% 100The indicators specific to chronological series can be successfully used in theanalyzes of capital market activity in general or on certain portfolios of financialinstruments. Thus, using these statistical indicators can be analyzed, for example, changesin daily yield of a financial instrument or portfolio of financial assets 6 .Also, the indicators specific to chronological series for determining the averagevalue of profficiency of a portfolio of instruments for a defined period of time anditsvcomparison with the profficiency of other financial instruments or securities portfolios.This ensures a number of precious information for the capital investor, this having theopportunity to diversify his portfolio by attracting some financial instruments with a higheryield.References[1]. Anghel, M.G. (2010) – “The use of chronological series in analyzing the profitabilityof financial assets”, Romanian Statistical Review - Supplement, no. 3[2]. Anghelache, C. (2008) – 'Treaty of theoretical and economic statistics”, EconomicPublishing House[3]. Anghelache, C; Anghelache, G.V. (2009) – „Utilization of the chronological serieswithin the stochastic processes”, Metalurgia International, Special Issue no. 4[4]. Boshnakov, G.N.; Iqelan, B.M. (2009) – „Generation of Time Series with GivenSpectral Properties”, Journal of Time Series Analysis, Vol. 30, Issue 3, pp. 349-368[5]. Rahman, A.U. (2008) – „Esimation and forecasting of financial time serie”,International Conference on Applied Statistics, Bucharest[6]. Sima, I.A. (2007) – “Stochastic evaluation models and characteristics of financial timeseries ', International Conference "Financial and monetary policies in the EuropeanUnion” Academy of Economic Studies, Bucharest, Department of Finance6 Anghel, M.G. – „The use of chronological series in analyzing the profitability of financial assets”,Romanian Statistical Review - Supplement, n0. 3, 2010120Revista Română de Statistică – Supliment Trim IV/2012

The Emphasis of Negative Journalism in theEconomic Communication, one of the Consequencesof the Global Economic CrisisȘtefan VLĂDUŢESCUUniversity of CraiovaAbstract(a) Purpose. Triggered around year 2005, the current economic and financialcrisis has gained a global character. The purpose of this study is to investigate the impactof the crisis upon journalistic communication of financial and economic profile.b) The collection of basic information. As the main premise,it has been noted thatin a natural way, there is a "negative journalism", a journalism based on persuasion. Inaddition it has been noted as a second premise, the existence of the financial and economiccrisis. Under the scale of the two premises, the sampling of the information was carried outby consulting the Romanian financial and economic press.(c) Findings. The result was that the number of the articles dedicated to crisis andits effects, has increased gradually. The more the crisis has intensified, the more theemotional component of the articles has stressed. The emotional inhibited the rational, sothat persuasion has been amplified. At the same time,the partizan and dishonest characterhas expanded. The correlation observed was that while the crisis has escalated,theeconomical and financial journalism has grown more and more emotional and negative.d) Practical implication. The press made a big-crisis out of the real crisis. Theeconomic and financial crisis of the moment must be read in a dissuated way.Key words: economic crisis, basic information, article, model, influenceJEL Classification: G011. IntroductionIn the preface to the book „Documenting in journalism” (2011), the teacher IlieRad, consistent with its position of campaigner for an ethics of journalism, gives tonguefor a total journalistic honestity. At the same time,he provides the example of germanjournalistic model: „It would be good for the media in Romania to take over the germanmodel, practiced by the Der Spiegel magazine: ' To give up information, rather thanrisking a false reporting '(Rad Ilie, 2011, pp. 5-8). Economic journalism, as an institution,assumes the obligation to manage and administrate the journalistic speech on economicthemes. One of the tasks of this type of management is the coordination as a whole of thedifferent influences which media interventions trigger. An economic journalistic operator,for example, doesn’t represent a single and simple influence. In the pages and on thecourse of his articles,starting with the editorial title and ending with the eventual publicitysection, varied influences are proposed, advanced and exerted. Any influence is theresultant of a location. Mediatic economic operators are part of the social and economiclevels. They subsist in the public social space, and their speech is impregnated by thesocial. As John E. Richardson says:„ “Journalistic discourses are always socially situated”(Richardson J. E., 2008, p. 153). Social situation determines the impregnation into theRevista Română de Statistică – Supliment Trim IV/2012 121

social. Within social ,an extended phenomenon is put under persuasion and persuasiveinfluence. A journalistic operator constitutes, finally, a coordination of influences. Theunitary effect of the influences gives the orientation or the direction of the media operator.When the influences of the main functions of media come out, then, the path to a negativejournalism is validated, the road of the persuasion has already been opened.2. The characteristics of current economic journalistic communication andpropensity towards negative journalismEconomic and journalistic communication and journalistic discourse haveeconomic indices and idiomatic,pensive indicators which give them a recognizable profile.As a speech of power, the first of the characteristics of journalistic communication isautonomy. Authentic journalism is independent, its speech transforms the independence inautothelism and autonomy. The economic journalism has, in its authenticity, no oversystematized connection.In its authenticity, this journalism is not ordered by anyone: it is self-containedand autothelic. His speech is managed alone and, furthermore, it sets the productionprinciples by itself. The autothelism and the autonomy constitute the principles ofeconomic journalism, of economic journalistic communication. The journalistic cultureneed to anchor in reality through autonomy and autothelism. Of these main definingfeatures it derives the specific of impartiality. The acts and facts which have becomesignificant and catalogued as economic events, are placed in the speech with fairness andobjectivity, with honesty and equity. Impartiality is the objectivity achieved withfairness.The objective is what it is and it does not want to be something else. Discoursivesubject constitutes the territory of what lies in the hands of relativity,interested on the senseof preferentiality. As a location, the subject stands in the lability area of faith andinfluences. The thinking spirit accepts subjectivity as his right of being at the disposal ofits own variability. The area of subjectivity is delimitated as a geometrical place,free fromobligations towards the strictely rationalism. In relation to this idea of subjectivity, theobjectivity is looming as the subjective exteriority. The destiny of the subjective isversatility. His status is the inconsistency. The subjectivity is the path of the insertion ofinfluences. On the other hand, economic journalism is interpretive. Journalisticinterpretation, in order to remain objective, must lie on the range of application ofrationality. Being rational and intelligible, the interpretation brings the lability andversatility,on the field of what it is objective. In the second place, the objectivity ofinterpretation arises from the subjectivity,willing to realize itself in what concerns selfaccomplishingintention. In this way an interpretational impartialism occurs. We can see inobjectivity an open effort of journalistic subjectivity to overcome the interests,sympathies and resentment i.e. direct emotions, and to reduce to the minimum the fatalpartiality in relation to the acts and facts put into the speech. In the process of removingthe inexorable partiality, the economic journalism is kept away from partisanship. It mustbe postulated that journalistic objectivity strives through honesty and fairness, to avoidpartiality. It can acquire impartiality just surpassing without remorse partisanship. Beyondthese, predisposition to objectivity appears. The journalist must only improve withhonesty, the predisposition to objectivity: impartiality will only be through it and socaptured. Double impartiality is required: towards the event and towards the public.Resisting to the public is the hardest. The journalist emerges from the public andassumes the obligation and the effort to become objective. For this he must resist theneeds which would push him to produce a speech through which he can contribute totheir satisfaction. He must face some interests that might be his own interests. He mustn’tdon't give up priorities and beliefs free from balance.122Revista Română de Statistică – Supliment Trim IV/2012

3. Negative journalism, dangerous and disapproved mix , between „bad”,„yellow” and „persuasive journalism”The main content of journalistic objectivity is represented by honesty. This is, atthe same time, the core of journalistic ethics. On the other hand, honesty means telling thetruth. The german model evoked by the professor Ilie Rad has the truth in the center. Theteacher Dona Tudor (Tudor D., 2012) and Gabriela Rusu-Păsărin (Rusu-Păsărin G., 2010)also agree with the “professional conduct”. It is revealed, in this order of ideas that inaccordance with the code of „The International Federation of Journalists”, respect for truthand for the right of public to truth is the first duty of the journalist (Apud Harcup T., 2007,p. 2). Therefore, beyond professionalism, even as a component of professionalism, thejournalism needs to cultivate and to protect honesty, truth and ethics in general. This is alsobecause in its turn, ethics is a dimension of social legitimation. As Ian Richardsshows,“the ethical dimension is of fundamental importance to the moral legitimacy ofjournalism” (Richards I., 2004, p. xiii). If he wants to remain strong and credible socialinstitution, it must keep the profile as cultural discourse,the journalism must resist, inaddition to the state , the audience and competition. Honest objectivity leaves to thejournalists a restricted area of options. The great enemy of impartiality is, in this order ofideas the leadership, the heads, the management, corporations, the owners of capital, thecircles of interest, parties etc. In what concerns journalistic impartiality, it can be kept justby securing the objectivity of the collection, drafting and distribution of the information.Whenever the autonomy and impartiality (honesty) are violated, journalismbecomes negative. One might say that without autonomy, autothelism and honesty itbecomes unethical journalism. Given that journalism is an activity with social impact andthe journalistic speech a manifestation directly of the fourth power, no one can speak of anunethical journalism. In his book, “The Ethical Journalist” (2007), Tony Harcup shows:“An ethical journalist is one who cares: cares about accuracy, cares about people, caresabout journalism, cares enough to speak out, and cares enough to challenge preconceptionsand prejudices” (Harcup T., 2007, p. 144). As a person who contributes to canonic andgeneral discourse of journalism, a journalist shouldn’t be, but exceptional is that it can bean „ unethical journalist”. For a person it can be accepted, as an exception, the lack ofethics, but for a power such as journalism the lack of ethics is unacceptable. That’s why, weconsider that the “unethical journalism” is, in fact, a negative journalism. “Unethicaljournalism” must be combated as negative, for he can mark the world destiny in a negativeway. Lorrie Lynch understands the possible "unethical acts” of some journalists, but rejectssuch acts when it comes to media operators; she illustrates such the situation in thefollowing way: “Rupert Murdoch is well known for his unethical and ruthless businesspractice, and his empire faces sanctions in Britain” (Lynch L., 2012, p. 290).Negative journalism is, on the one hand, “a bad journalism”, “a yellow journalism”,and on the other „ persuasive journalism ": „Bad journalism, according to Matthew Kieran,is truth-indifferent and fails to respect truth-promoting practices” (Kieran M., 1998, p. 35).„Yellow journalism” is the abstract concept detached from the way in which,actually,TheNew York City press, particularly, represented by J. Pulitzer and W. R. Hearst, in the1890’s meant to reflect reality. As Joseph Turow points out„the term is used for anewspaper characterized by irresponsible, unethical, and sensational news gathering andexhibition” (Turow J., 2009, p. 307). It is understood through the definition of J. Turow thatbeyond and over the "unethical journalism", there is another one which is first"irresponsible",and, thirdly, sensationnel". We add to these three features,the characteristicRevista Română de Statistică – Supliment Trim IV/2012 123

of persuasion.The journalism characterized by „persuasive”, „unethical”-(„truthindifferent”),„sensational” şi „irresponsible” attributes, constitute negative journalism. It isa dangerous and rejected mix between "bad", „yellow” and „persuasive journalism”.4. The discourse of negative journalismThe rational and emotional argumentation are elements of a cultural-influencialinstitution with a profile that must be verbally watermarked.the forum of the negativejournalism, individualises through a specific gearing of the thinking and idiomaticmachine,in applying on the social framework of some objectives which give identity to thediscourse.If it didn’t have a separated and important figure of thinking, in what concernsthe social discourse of influence, negative journalism wouldn’t deserve any attention.Itmust be thought and explored not to be taught,but to be rejected.When normal journalism can’t evoid the partisanship and cannot pass nearpersuasion, it becomes inevitable and automatically, negative journalism. Generally,journalism destiny cannot exclude persuasion,as a form of influence on an emotional way.Negative journalism is preponderant, a “persuasive journalism”,and “the most persuasivejournalism engages and stimulates the raw feelings of the reader”(O’Shaughnessy J.,O’Shaughnessy N.J., p. 37)The culture of the money and the media industrialization command upon thestructure of objectives of the negative journalism in economic communication.Assuch,financial interests are privileged. In the ierarchy of the values which move thediscourse,the money come first,financial efficiency of influence. On the culture of negativejournalism raises o civilization who believes in the particular register of mass-mediaexpression. This register doesn’t ask the addressee for a bigger effort than positivejournalism,because the first of its concernes is to hide under the positive,thinking,idiomaticmachine. The deliberate insidiousity believes in the language of the positive journalism.Thereby,it attracts unrejectable values and it stimulates influencial answers called up by thepositive journalism in a natural way.An unlimited disguise fascinates in the discourse of thenegative journalism. The productions of negative journalism come to us through a positivejournalism surrounded by language and reflection which hide negative interests.Theseinterests come to us as lies,seduction,fiction and mith,having economic and financialcontent. The comprehension of the negative discourse can occur only after identifyingconcrete elements of the persuasion: lie,seduction, fiction, mith.In the end,all of them makeroom for the constitution of the negative message. It is not the persuasion which dictatesthe message,its role is only to decide the discursive modality of its progression. Negativitythus,cannot be disabled,only put under control.5. Journalistic interpretation and journalistic messageWithin journalism, the disclosure of an financial and economic event will alwaysbe succeded by an interpretation. Everytime succeeded means permanently anticipated.Inother words,the signaling of an event will be forworded and followed by interpretation.Thisturns out to be an interpretation which may loose the real significations of theevent.Signalling and interpreting are completely different things. They are not due to thefact that the interpretation of the events is always variable,but because it is not based on astrict argumentation.The argumentation,articulated in the news, a natural argumentation,based on false rationalism, sophistry, treacherous arguments. The people who takedecisions have a major role in installing positive or negative journalism. Nevertheless,thejournalists,through their honesty and austerity have the last word. They are the ones whocreate the journalistic discourse: select the subjects,turn them into speech,present,assume124Revista Română de Statistică – Supliment Trim IV/2012

and expose them. Paradoxically, the journalist is still under the power of the public. Hewrites under the requirements of the public. In other words,the public is the one who“writes his own articles”through the medium of the journalist. The journalists have anethical conscience and they formed in the rigour of honesty. Honesty is for them,the secondnature. When the journalists and the journalism forget their vocation,then the journalisticmessage turns out to be “an instrument for dominating the spirits,a factory of thedistortionate world,under the excuse of narrating it”.(Voyenne B., 1975, p. 283). Whereasthe global economic crisis determines the behaviour of all the economic participants,all theeconomic operators are involved in the flux of influences. On the negative component ,theypartially or totally back off to autonomy,impartiality and honesty and become instrumentsof dishonest interests which are assumed or only promoted. The more the crisisaccentuates,the more the economic interests amplify,which leads to a more extendedincidence of the negative journalism. Economic mediatic operators are components of theeconomic system. The main object of their discourse is represented by the economic itself.Economic journalists are,among journalists, the most versant of the economicphenomenon.6. ConclusionsJournalistic communication, as it functions today, dispose of two methods ofedification of the informative discourse: the method of the rational persuasion, and themethod of the emotional persuasion. The appliance of one of the methods or the mixing ofthe two represents the journalists’option. As a distinct figure in what concerns thejournalism’s onthology,it has been delimitated in the last 40 years,the negative journalism,ajournalism of persuasion and dishonest interests.The press in general is sensitive to themajor influences. The financial and economic crisis has effects in the financial andeconomic journalism: the raise of the pressure of the economic information upon themediatic operators and the raise of the pressure of the paymasters upon financial strategiesof the operators. Under these circumstancies,one of the operators’ reactions is representedby the development of a persuasive and accentuated beahaviour in what concerns theadopting of some shadows of dishonesty. In other words the escalation of the financial andeconomic crisis leaded to the amplification of the negative journalism because of whom thereal crisis appeared as”megacrisis”. Nevertheless the financial and economic press ,whenwriting about crisis,must be read so that the readers may be able to change their owndecisions whenever they want to.References[1]. Dima I. C., Vlăduţescu Ş., Persuasive communication in logistic negotiation, IJER, vol3, issue 1, pp. 14-21, 2012.[2]. Dima I. C., Vlăduţescu Ş., Persuasive Logistical Negotiation, Saarbrucken, LambertAcademic Publishing, 2012.[3]. Dima I. C., Man M., Vlăduţescu Ş., The Company’s Logistic Activity in theConditions of Current Globalisation, în Cuadra-Montiel H., Globalization – Educationand Management Agendas, Rijeka, Intech, 2012.[4]. Dima I. C., Vlăduţescu Ş., Risk Elements in Communicating the Managerial Decisions,EJBSS, 2012.[5]. Harcup T., The Ethical Journalist, London, SAGE Publications Ltd, 2007.[6]. Kieran M., Media Ethics, London, Routledge, 1998.[7]. Lynch L., Exploring Journalism and the Media, South-Western, Cengage Learning,2012.Revista Română de Statistică – Supliment Trim IV/2012 125

[8]. Morley J., Modals in persuasive journalism, în Faccinetti R., Palmer F., (eds.), EnglishModality in Perspective, Frankfurt am Main, Peter Lang, 2004.[9]. O’Shaughnessy J., O’Shaughnessy N. J., Persuasion in Advertising, London,Routledge, 2004.[10]. Rad Ilie, (coord.), Documentarea în jurnalism, Bucureşti, Editura Tritonic, 2011.[11]. Richards I., Quagmires and Quandaries: Exploring Journalism Ethics, Sydney,University of New South Wales Press, 2005.[12]. Richardson J. E., Language and journalism, Journalism studies, 9:2, 150-160,2008.[13]. Rusu-Păsărin G., Interviul, Bucureşti, Editura Tritonic, 2010.[14]. Smarandache F., Vlăduțescu S., Extension Communication for SolvingOntological Contradiction between Communication and Information, viXra, 2012.[15]. Tudor D., Documentarea în jurnalism, Apostrof, XXIII, nr. 9(268), 2012.[16]. Turow J., Media Today: An Introduction to Mass Communication, 3 rd edition,New York, Routledge, 2009.[17]. Voyenne, B., L’information aujourd’hui, Paris, Armand Colin, 1975.[18]. Vlăduţescu Şt., Comunicare jurnalistică negativă, Bucureşti, Editura AcademieiRomâne, 2006.[19]. Vlăduţescu Şt. et alii, Communication in Negative Journalism, Proceedings of 8thWSEAS International Conference, Penang, Malaysia, March 23-25, 2010, pp. 161-166,2010.126Revista Română de Statistică – Supliment Trim IV/2012

The Globalization in the Crisis ContextProfessor Radu Titus MARINESCU PhDradu_titus_marinescu@yahoo.com“Artifex” University of BucharestAbstractThe succession of the crises back in the years '90, in Mexico, followed byThailand, Indonesia , Korea, continuing with Russia, Turkey, Brazil and the last but not theleast, Argentina, let many analysts to allege that these financial crises are an inevitableresult of the globalization. The issue behind this analysis consists actually of the fact that,due to this phenomenon, the financial management problems became more critical.Key words: contagion, crisis, development, nation, problemJEL Classification: F601. General aspectsObviously the crises would have not reached an uncontrollable level and wouldnot have expended, if they had not been exposed to the exposure at the international capitalmarkets. Meantime, the growth rhythms recorded by these countries would have not leveledup to such amplitude if the financial flows, generated by the globalization had not existed.All these crises hold more complex reasons, belonging to the interactions existing betweenthe national policies and the international financial system. At the national level, even ifmany of the countries recorded quite impressive developments from the point of view of theeconomic performance, there have been not, however, the necessary key factors for aneffective protection against the shocks coming from the international markets. Here wehave the contagion phenomenon occurring that is typical to the process of theinterdependences increase between nations. The contagion consists of the transmission ofthe economic or financial shocks between nations, either the positive or he negative ones.Frequently, the contagion notion is correlated with the negative periods, while the“spillover effects” are correlated with the positive phenomena. The contagion suggests infact that the correlated evolution of the nations, frequently explained through the herdingeffects behavior. The crises contagion at regional and global level holds several channelsof transmission that consist of the fundamental connections between the world΄ s economies18, among which we emphasize:■ the financial connections – they do exist whenever two or more economies areconnected through the international financial system. For instance, the payment incapacityof a country may affect its main creditors; if the connections chain is longer, then the shockmay be transmitted several times. Another example: If an international company or amutual fund is recording decreases of their market values, running the risk to becomeinsolvent due to a negative shock from a country, then it is obliged to create reserves byselling its assets on a market not affected by the initial shock.■ the connections of the real economy – refers usually to the internationalcommercial relations. For instance, two partner or competing countries on a third marketwill be negatively affected if one of them is facing or is resorting to the exchange ratedevaluation, which will deteriorate the competitive advantage of the other country.Revista Română de Statistică – Supliment Trim IV/2012 127

Consequently, both countries will resort to successive devaluations, with the purpose of rebalancingtheir external balances. Meantime, the real connections occur as direct foreigninvestments as well.■ political connections – are explained to a lower extent by the specializedliterature. Let us consider the following example: if a country is member of an associationor “countries club”, with a particular monetary arrangement, the political costs of theunitary devaluation are by far smaller if the other countries are resorting to the same step.This is why, the crises tend to concentrate themselves in the regions of majorinterdependences.The conclusions arising from the contagion effect of the financial crises impliedthe need to estimate the external vulnerabilities of these countries before they proceedhazardously to an irrational liberalization of the capitals. The macroeconomic stabilization,the financial health, the transparency of the government policies proved to be fundamentalelements for the participation on the global market.2. The increase of the country risks in the new context of the globalizationThe end of the last decade knew strong degradations of the country risks, as it hasbeen shaken by numerous financial, stock exchange and currency crises. The country risk isa macro-risk, meaning that is the result of the evolution of the general conditions of thenational economic environment, having a major impact on both the external crediting of therespective country and the private investments.Presently, there is a large number of systems for the risk analysis, the most wellknownbeing the models utilized by BERI (Business Environmental Risk Intelligence), bythe American rating agencies "Standard & Poor’s”, "Moody's", Fitch IBCA, "Duff &Phelps", as well as by reviews such as "Euromoney" and "The Economist”. They asgrouping the countries by classes of risk starting from the principle that the countries ofsimilar levels of risk tend to record a similar macroeconomic evolution. Frequently, thecountry risk is associated to the risks premiums running on the financial markets for thegranted credits and for the bonds issued by a country, or to the de-quoting rates for thedebts instruments on a debtor country, although, in some specialists΄ opinion, the level ofthe country risk should bear a guiding role only, as regards the evaluation of the financialrating associated to a state.The last researches on the worldwide plan, reached the conclusion that the riskpremium (the difference between the interest applied by the crediting banks and the LIBORinterest), off which the estimated rate of the creditor΄ s loss in the situation the country riskis occurring is deducted represents, in fact, a country risk premium. This risk premium iscalculated depending on the following variables: the credit duration, the probability of respreadingout the payments or to repudiate the external public debt and the demandelasticity. Meantime, the country risk premium can be calculated in the form of the linearregression of the following independent variables: debt/GDP, foreign investment/GDP andthe rate of the foreign debt service. Another alternative starts from the premise that thecounty risk is equivalent to the market risk for each investor who holds a portfolio on therespective financial market, under the conditions that the national financial market isreflecting the economical and political developments of a country. This approach has ahigher relevance for the portfolios formed in the developing countries and on the emergentmarkets. Another approach considers that the country market is given by the volatility ofeach national market as against the international market of the financial equities. Thismanner is relevant for the portfolios formed in the developed countries – the relevance ofthe market risk coefficient being reduced in the case of the developing countries.128Revista Română de Statistică – Supliment Trim IV/2012

In the year 1998, the country risk recorded the highest amplitude of the last fiveyears. This increase of the country risk all over the world (the years 1997-1999) is,certainly, the most significant since the one recorded in the years '30 and '80. The Asiancrisis of 1997, which focus was Thailand, extended rapidly over all the Asian economies(the ASEAN countries followed by the North Asia countries, South Korea in particular),expending then over the entire world economy, showing various ways of acting:■ very powerful financial crises in Indonesia and Russia, resulting in heavydevaluations of the national currencies and a moratorium on the Russia payments (August1998);■ very strong speculating attacks on Brazil;■ the Central and East Europe countries, the Latin America countries, Turkey andSouth Africa have recorded numerous collapses of the stock exchange quotations and theexchange rates.The emergent markets have been more severely affected than the maturecountries. Out of these last ones, the bonds market in the USA and those of “hard core”from the European Union had even marked the benefit to return to quality. But the countryrisk worsened in numerous developing countries and should various forms of acting:■ sovereign risk and non-transfer – Russia, Argentina;■ systematic risk of the credit - Korea, Indonesia, Thailand;■ systematic risk of the financial markets – South Korea, Indonesia, Malaysia,Philippines, Thailand.The evolution of the emergent countries during the last years of the passed decadeshows that an extension of the investment opportunities in these countries has beenaccompanied, in fact, by an increase of the country risk, mainly through an increasedpotential of the international propagation of the crises. This resulted from the increasedvulnerability of the developing countries and from the persistence of the structural lacks ofbalance.Although the Central and East Europe, candidates to the EU adhesion are globallypositioned on the international economical scene, in a particular way, they were not entirelysheltered against the contagion, directly or indirectly, of the Russian crisis of 1998. Theshock coming from Russia resulted, with rare exceptions, in :■ the strong collapse of the stock exchange indices (almost by 40% in Budapest,between Aug. 14 th – Sept. 14 th 1998);■ currencies depreciation (by over 8% the Polish zlot in one month);■ diminishing the international reserves (almost by 10% for Romania, betweenJuly - August 1998).Presently, these indicators recovered for the majority of the countries, underliningthat the lack of confidence concerning the emergent countries and the countries in transitionlost in intensity.The Russian crisis, as well as The Asian one a year before, spread panic amongcreditors and investors. Although the country risk analyses played well their predictingrole, identifying the crisis focuses, the investors on these markets underestimated the levelof the risk associated to the high level of the provisioned yields. The amplitude of theRussian and Asian crises, as well as the Argentinean one, was due to the increasing gapbetween the risk evaluation of the economists and the investors΄ optimism,, which led to theoccurrence of the "optimism bubbles” – a sign of risk of confidence crisis, as these“bubbles” had rapidly deflated, turning into "pessimism bubbles”. These crises had adouble impact, first financially and then economically, due to the markets diminishing andRevista Română de Statistică – Supliment Trim IV/2012 129

the increase of the bankruptcies number. In three of the four recent shocks (Thailand,Korea, Russia) the preceding disconnecting between the perception of the risk by themarkets and the country risk indicators. The crises are well preceded by a period ofexcessive optimism as against the actual situation of the economies. But Indonesia did notmatch with this scenario as the adjustment of markets confidence level to the economicsituation was instantaneous. In the case of Brazil, it is obvious that the tensions translatedmainly into an excess of lack of confidence that get corrected afterwards.Excesses of optimism arouse in South Africa, Turkey and newly Venezuela,without any adjustments ever taking place (excepting the drop of the South-African rand in1998). In exchange, Argentina, Venezuela and Hungary, before the Russian crisis, havesuffered a confidence deficit. Generally, this is tending to auto-correct, through a gradualamelioration of the perception of the risk by the markets. Absolutely exceptionally, adegradation of the fundamental aggregates is observed in China and Philippines, and notonly, where the markets fear for important repercussions of the Asian crisis preceded theiractual apparition in the foreign trade statistics.But the year 2000 marked a strong recover of the country risk all over the world,counting for the year of the highest rate of the world economy growth and of the foreigntrade of the past decade. Moody's granted more favorable rating during the years 2000 tocountries such as Mexico, Canada, Israel, Malaysia, Thailand, Hungary, Russia, Sloveniaand more unfavorable to Moldova and Fiji Islands.For the last four years, the trend of the ratings in the Central and South-EastEurope has been positive as a result of the fact that most of those countries improved themacroeconomic performances, materializing thus their efforts to restructure aiming theadhesion to the EU. There were only Ukraine, Moldova and Romania that recorded slowersudden changes for the better.3. The evaluation of the external vulnerabilityThe existence of the systemic risks generates contradictory imperatives. On onehand, the desire of the financial institutions, both public and private, to avoid aninternational financial crisis results in the imperative of a more extended and more intenseinternational regulation of the world finances system. Thus, subsequent to the East-SouthAsian crisis of 1997, the annual summit of the IMF/World Bank of 1998 generated anagreement concerning the international mechanisms of a more efficient survey and a largertransparency in issuing financial information, in the attempt to prevent such a crisis in thefuture.On the other hand, submitting to more rigorous standards of regulation ascomparatively with the potential competitors is not of the interest of any state or financialinstitution. The consequence is that the regulation instruments for the control of thesystemic risks are often insufficient. In this respect, it is eloquent that there is no firmtentative to settle again the transfers of capital on short-term basis at international level, andthat immediately after and irrespectively the East-Asian crisis. Taking into considerationthe potentially volatile nature of the global financial markets and the instantaneousdiffusion of the information between the main financial centers of the world, the systematicrisks keep on remaining a threat for the functioning of the whole global financial system; nogovernment alone can deal with this threat neither can it isolates the economy against thisthreat.The increasing relevance of the systemic risk is strongly associated to thestructural modification in the power balance between governments (and the international130Revista Română de Statistică – Supliment Trim IV/2012

agents) and the markets – more precisely, between the public authority and the private onefrom the global financial system. Although there is a tendency to exaggerate the power ofthe global financial markets, ignoring the central position of the state power in supportingtheir efficient operating, mainly in times of crisis, there are many convincing evidences tosuggest that the financial contemporary globalization is a process propelled mainly by themarket than by the state. Emphasized by the financial liberalization, the evolution towardsprivate financial markets and institutions as “authoritative players” in the global financialsystem raises serious question marks as to the nature of the state power and the economicsovereignty. As pointed out by, „the states allowed the monetary private agents, organizedthrough the intermediary of the markets, to dominate the decisions referring to who hasaccess to credit (financing) and in which conditions. The international organizing of thecredit has been transformed…from a quasi-public one in one almost entirely private". Inthis new context, the autonomy and even the sovereignty of the advanced capitalist statesbecome problematic in certain respects.The lessons arising from the last decade crises consisted of the concentration of theIMF efforts on the surveillance of its members and the world economic context, by meansof evaluating the external vulnerabilities at crises of the member countries. The vigilanceand the capability to rapidly response to the crises and to their contagion constituted thenew vectors of the IMF policies: the monetary policy must be conceived so that it is capableto administrate the tensions which may occur on the exchange rates; the fiscal reformsmust be entirely enforced; the decisive moments for the implementation of the structuralreforms must be not delayed.The concern of the IMF has been guided mainly on securing the adequate reservesand the reserves management as well as on the identification of the general principles forthe prudential management of the external debts. The IMF tries to achieve a system ofindicators for the external vulnerability – talks are referring even to a revolution of thereserves policy (consisting of the evaluation of the vulnerability not only from theperspective of the foreign trade but also from the perspective of the needs of capital onshort- term basis - the foreign debt service on short-term basis – for the application ofcertain systemic models for optimum alerting (EWS - Early Warning Systems) and,implicitly, of intervention through fiscal, monetary and currency policies. These actions areaiming to prevent the loss of the external liquidity and solvency of the member countries,with a negative impact on the credibility.Of course, all of them are imposing the transparency increase of themacroeconomic policies of both the member countries and IMF.References[1]. Anghelache, G.V., (2004) - "The capital market. Features. Developments.Transition ", Economic Publishing House[2]. Lintner, J. (1965) – „The valuation of risk assets and the selection of riskyinvestments in stock portofolios and capital budgets”, Review of Economics andStatistics 47, 13-27.[3]. Markowitz, H.M. (1952) – „Portofolio Selection”, The Journal of Finance 7, 77-91[4]. Sharpe, W. (1964) – „Capital asset prices: A theory of market equilibrium underconditions of risk”, Journal of Finance 19, 425-442.[5]. ***Banca Mondială, Contagion of Financial Crises, February 2002Revista Română de Statistică – Supliment Trim IV/2012 131

Opinions about Component Energetic SecurityElena GOLUMBEANU, PhDAbstractCollective security (international) represent the morphological expression ofindividual security components. According to the Report presented at the United NationsDevelopment Programme, collective security (international) as well as national security, isthe expression of seven synergistic dimensions as follows: economic security, food security,environmental security, personal security, community security, political security andindividual security. As part of economic security, energy and economic-financial part of it,is cause and effect for all other components of collective security, in particular, nationalsecurity of each state. Economic security, at the beginning of new millennium, is a morecomplex and dynamic concept, derived from the multitude of processes and phenomena ofpolitical, economic, financial, social, ecological, etc.. existing in the world, in the context ofglobalization. Economic security can be seen only in close connection with nationalsecurity, economic policies promoted nationally, regionally and globally, with theparticipation of state actors in international economic circuits. In a world of increasinginterdependencies, under increasingly global, just energy and economic and financialinterdependence can become risks, threats and vulnerabilities to energy security, nationalsecurity and collective default on.Key words: security, economic security, national security, collective security,economic crisis, financial crisis.JEL Classification: O13It is clear that the core national security and collective security is inextricablylinked to the individual. As such, the security interests of the state must necessarilyConcorde security interests of the citizens. In this context, all the security required bycitizens and the state that is has as a starting point and end point of economic elements.Energy and economic-financial component of national and collective security ismore and more forms of expression, as a state economy has become the expression of itsnational power, whether political, social or military. In the current era, the economy becamemore dynamic and complex factor in assessing the welfare of a state arising from thesecurity and prosperity of their citizens.Consequently, financial and economic crisis of recent years in terms of its negativeeffects on the state level but also at community level social and individual, has reigniteddebate about the concept of economic security. By definition of economic security as“access to resources, finance and markets necessary to sustain a level of wealth and powerconvenience of the State” 1 , lack of money and more difficult access to financing, loweroverall level of national development, followed by welfare decrease experienced byindividual who coordinates are significant implications on the security felt by citizens, butalso on general security of states.1 Bary Buzan, peoples, states and fear. An agenda for international security studies in the era of theCold War, Ed Cartier, Chişinău, 2000., p.247-248132Revista Română de Statistică – Supliment Trim IV/2012

If the middle of last century, the economic security of a state was correlateddirectly with national resource stocks, which could provide a relative economicdevelopment, currently national security issues of national economies moved in space inthe regional economic complexes, even international, national economic security leveldepending on the state's ability to manage internal resources aggregating safe access to theoutside.Therefore, economic security is increasingly a complex concept with a growing,highly dynamic, derived from the multitude of processes and phenomena of political,economic, financial, social, ecological, etc.. existing in the world, under globalization,manifested in correlation with national security, economic policies promoted by each stateand the degree of participation in economic activities and international circuits.Economic security depends on the state to counter the full range of risks, dangers andthreats, internal and external resources to address economic, environmental and manageinternational relations, so that national entities to establish sustainable economic results.However, contemporary realities reveal that threats to economic areas are difficult toidentify because the constituent elements that undermine the rules, norms and institutions,many of them developing a symbiosis is difficult to define the relational elements thatcover a range specific matrix of state, private and international. In this plan, some economicthreats to configure the real attacks on national security conscious when the action is drivenby the external environment and lead to material losses, the pressure on state institutions,even to prejudice national security environment. The range of these actions are included:formal prohibitions resources and regional and global economic markets, hampering thefree development of international economic exchanges, limiting access to some resourcesand opportunities for regional economic and financial threats, corruption of state entities,dumping policies, falsification and money laundering, sanctions, blockades and economicembargoes, customs barriers, etc. naval piracy.Therefore, economic security, understood as a dimension of national andinternational security, prosperity means based on the economy, legality, balance andstability, based on the principles of market economy and rule of law expressed throughspecific actions to ensure economic, political, social and otherwise 2 . As such, “ ... economicsecurity, in tandem with democracy and social security measures, promote developmentand social stability “ 3 . Along with qualitative values: sustainable development, ecologicalbalance, social, scientific and technological research etc.., The natural resources of any stateis a foundation element of economic security of State. Therefore, economic security isassessed according to indicators and economic trends that reflect the general state of thenation's economic welfare, therefore its citizens. Therefore, in our opinion, the concept ofeconomic security aims to ensure continued access to economic opportunities, markets,infrastructure, resources of all kinds, which ensures the performance of the nationaleconomy.Economic support of the security component began to be revealed in officialdocuments of the main international military actors. Thus, the 1999 NATO StrategicConcept, paragraph 25, specifies that the Alliance has a comprehensive approach to2Romanian Intelligence Service, Economic Security, www.sri.ro/categorii/26/securitateeconomica.html.,Bucharest, 20073 Timo Fischer, Book Riview: Economic Security for a Better World, in Journal of European SocialPolicy, and in February 2006, vo.16, No.1, p.101Revista Română de Statistică – Supliment Trim IV/2012 133

security, which, in addition to the indispensable defense dimension recognizes theimportance of economic factors, along with the political, social and ecological. In theNATO defense planning process provides the best way to use all the national resources thatare available for Alliance 4 missions. In turn, the National Security Strategy of the RussianFederation in 2020 explicitly link security level of economic capacity and effectiveness ofthe proposed system to ensure national security 5For Romania, the National Defense Strategy considers competitive nationaleconomy as the mainstay of national security, a factor that can generate complex militarypower. 6 Security appears to be very important way of organizing and structuring theeconomy, the fundamental principles by which it operates in either protectionism or ofneoliberalism. Protect strategic industries through subsidies and other tax cuts, can achievea solid impression of defense industries, which, if necessary, easily integrates with theoverall effort to ensure national security. Unfortunately, long term, this strategy may resultin some distortion in terms of efficiency and economic efficiency, with greater effects onnational security by reducing economic competitiveness. The strategy based on marketeconomy principles, specialization and efficiency leads national efforts to maximizeeconomic growth and general prosperity, which can lead to increased ability to aggregatestate resources that can be integrated with efforts to ensure safety.Even if present, is considered the excesses of the capitalist model based oneconomic liberalism facilitated the entry of the global economy in crisis, we think thatintegration processes and global circuits of trade and the economy seems to be how tomanage performance effectively the resources of any kind. The deepening economicinterdependence and cooperation between countries of the world is, and beyond, the bestway to mitigate conflicts and efforts to reduce defense forces to maintain large and veryexpensive. As such, and for the foreseeable future, security decisions are increasinglyinfluenced by the economy, both nationally and internationally.In general, a state economic interests are related to security and defense interests,but that foster prosperity and security of its own citizens, because a stable and strongeconomy where there are only citizens, community, society and state they feel safety andstability.By taking into account economic factors, social and political indicators measuredon a scale of one to ten, the Fund for Peace published an index of failed states from citizensecurity requirements. Thus, the economic factor were identified uneven developmentamong countries with different social groups, by estimating the real or perceived inequalityin the group, in terms of education, employment and economic status, level of poverty inthe group measured by the level of poverty, infant mortality, education, etc.., and increasingcommunal nationalism based on real or perceived inequalities in the group. Failed states,with severe economic decline, characterized by: progressive economic decline of society asa whole, measured by per capita income, GNP, debt, child mortality, poverty, businessfailure, etc..; Slump commodity prices, trade revenue, foreign investment or debt payments,collapse or devaluation of national currency, extreme social difficulties imposed economic4 NATO, The Alliance'sStrategic oncept, 24 April 1999, www.nato.int/cps/en/natolive/official-texts-27433.htm?selectedLocale=en5 The Secutity Council of Russian Federation, The National Security Strategy of Russian Federation to2020, may 2009, http://merln.nduedu/whitepapers/Russia2009.pdf.6*** No CSAT decision. 62 of 17 April 2006 National Security Strategy of Romania134Revista Română de Statistică – Supliment Trim IV/2012

austerity programs, increase economy, including drug trafficking, smuggling and outflowsof capital, growth level of corruption; fall in commodity prices, trade revenue, foreigninvestment or debt payments, collapse or devaluation of national currency, extreme socialdifficulties imposed economic austerity programs, increase the economy, including drugtrafficking, smuggling and capital outflows, increasing the level of corruption and illicittrades in the population, inability to pay salaries of state government and the armed forcesor to meet other financial obligations to its citizens, such as pension payments, etc.. Themodel developed among the safest countries include Finland, Denmark, Sweden, Canada,Austria, and at the opposite end are countries like Somalia, Congo, Zimbabwe, Sudan,Chad 7 etc..In the past 25 years, the new architecture of the system of international relations,globalization and liberalization of markets and financial system have had the time effectson the global economy in general, and the standard of living of citizens in particular.According to experts 8 , the financial liberalization has led to an increase of 1% annualgrowth rate per capita. But these financial systems interconnection through a complicatedset of private funds, mutual funds, hedge funds and other financial instruments, in additionto reasonable regulation, caused the malfunctions occurred in a part of the world havenegative reverberations throughout the financial networks, as demonstrated at the onset ofthe current global crisis. Formed in the U.S., in 2007, the effect of contamination, the crisishas spread rapidly, then covering all sectors, virtually paralyzing all economic circuits.Aggressive monetary policy measures and liquidity injections taken by the U.S. anddeveloped European countries were not sufficient to avoid worsening the crisis. As a result,major financial institutions in the U.S. and Europe fell, commodity prices have becomeextremely volatile, which affected all states equally.For the first time in the last 50 years, the world economic system has beenseriously questioned, and the crisis, bankruptcies, layoffs and staff reductions have becomeeveryday aspects of the global economy. To mitigate the devastating effects of the crisis,absolutely all countries engaged in the promotion of measures aimed at rehabilitating thenational economy and the establishment of a future state of safety and security related to theenforcement of the current findings: financial and banking regulations and internationaltrade are required to change its model of economic liberalization and economic integrationhas shown the limits, dependencies and interdependencies of economic and financial, byemphasis, can generate vulnerability, American currency, even the European one, givesigns of weakness, the indebtedness of economies grew too many, emerging economieshave accumulated large foreign reserves, etc. already. In fact, the world economic system,which is now in crisis, has made nearly 40% of the world to gather only 5% of globalrevenues, which means that over three billion people live on less than 2.5 dollars a day 9 .As the economic crisis took on global dimensions, a practice rejected by the rulesof free market economy began to be called into question: economic protectionism. Thus,starting from the current situation, the unprecedented economic conditions demandingunprecedented protectionist practice became most apparent in the majority of the7 The Fund for Peace, Failed States Index, 2009,www.fundforpeace.org/web/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=99&Itemid=3238 Ranciere Romain, Tornell Aaron, Westwrman Frank, Decomposing the Effects of FinancialLiberalization: Crisevs. Growth, March, 2006,p.29 Anup Shah, Poverty Facts and Stats, 22 March 2009, www.globalissues.org/article/26/poverty-factsand-stats.Revista Română de Statistică – Supliment Trim IV/2012 135

international actors. Even the U.S. economic recovery plan in February 2009 ˶ BuyAmerican clause stipulated by the iron, steel and other raw materials purchased forprocessing in the industry through funds provided by the program must come from the U.S.government. Moreover, with protectionist measures, in situations where partial capitalinfusions certain companies and financial institutions were not sufficient to be saved frombankruptcy, nationalization were the last resort, the state became the largest owner ofAction banking business. Security situation in the crisis situation obviously depended ongovernment intervention, which, by appropriate levers that have targeted resources,legislation, etc. access to confidential information., Imposed measures giving hope, both forcitizens and the institutions concerned.A general trend characterizing the current security environment is given by thereorientation of priorities for defense and military security of the main actors of theinternational scene. Amid dramatic decrease in the funds and economic resources, militarypower and some have revised their security strategies and military doctrines havedeveloped various programs to reform and transform the system of forces, the mode ofaction to maintain credible force component security.Energy component and the economic and financial decisions NATO and the EUhave resulted in budget adjustments to implement austerity measures, with the declaredpurpose to mitigate the impact of crisis on security system. Budgets and procurement ofnew techniques of police operation saw large adjustments to the level of most of thecountries of the world.As such, the security environment supports economic and financial system, andthis, in turn, determines the development of defense and security systems. Energy andeconomic-financial aspects of member turned slowly in the heart of security systems.References[1]. Anup Shah, Poverty Facts and Stats, March 22, 2009[2]. Bary Buzan, peoples, states and fear. An agenda for international security studies in theera of the Cold War, Ed Cartier, Chişinău, 2000.[3]. *** No CSAT decision. 62 of 17 April 2006 National Security Strategy of Romania[4]. *** Romanian Intelligence Service, Security, Bucharest, 2007[5]. *** The Fund for Peace, Failed States Index, 2009[6]. From Dehesa G., Winners and losers of globalization, Historia House, Bucharest, 2007[7]. Timo Fischer, Book Riview: Economic Security for a Better World, in Journal ofEuropean Social Policy, and in February 2006, vo.16, No.1[8]. Ronciere Romain, Tomell Aason, Westwman Frank, decomposing the Efects ofFinancial Liberazition: Growth Crisevs March, 2006[9]. J. Scott, On behalf of the state. Models failed to improve the human condition,Polirom, Bucharest, 2007.[10]. J.E. Stiglitz, Globalization. Hopes and disappointments, Economic PublishingHouse, Bucharest, 2003136Revista Română de Statistică – Supliment Trim IV/2012

Globalization: Definition, Processes and ConceptsSandu CUTERELA - PhD studentNational Defense University « Carol I »AbstractThe paper initiates from two assumptions: the first one is that globalization is aninevitable phenomenon, characterizing our development era, a phenomenon that the humansociety is forced to understand, because for the first time, it questions the surviving andevolution of the human society.The second is that globalization, as a socio-historical phenomenon, manifested itself firstlyas a theory, then as a practical necessity, becoming a strategy for the constitution of a solemarket, spread across a huge surface, the engulfs states, regions, continents.This paper presents the economical, political, cultural, social and risk changes, thatinfluences the rise and stabilization of the phenomenon of globalization.This complex process is linked to the economical power of the big, industrialized states ad,unfortunately, of the great transnational companies. The process itself brings togethercountries with different development views, with different religions and cultures, and, mostimportant, ex colonialist countries and their old colonies.The conclusion of the paper discusses ways of understanding, controlling and diminishingof the negative effects and collateral losses manifested since the initialization of thephenomenon and its settling in a certain region.Key words: Culture, Economic, Global, Globalization,International,Multinational, National, Market , RegionalJEL Classification: F60DefinitionsThe term globalization comes from English, as base of the word ”globalization”which refers to the emerging of an international network, belonging to an economical andsocial system 1 . One of the earliest uses of the term "globalization", as known, was in 1930 -in a publication entitled Towards New Education - to designate an overview of the humanexperience in education 2 .A near-term "giant corporations" was used in 1897 3 by Charles Russell Tazel todescribe the big national trusts and other large enterprises of the time. Since 1960 bothterms began to be used interchangeably by economists and researchers in social sciencesand were used until about mid 1980.Since the invention of the concept, globalization has inspired numerousinterpretations definitions and has had a history going back in time to the great commercial1 “Globalization”. Online etimologi dictionary. www.etymonline.com/index.php?term=globalization.2"Globalization". Oxford English Dictionary Online. September 2009.http://dictionary.oed.com/cgi/entry/50297775?single=1&query_type=word&queryword=Globalization&first=1&max_to_show=10.3"''The Battle of Armageddon'', October, 1897 pages 365–370". Pastor-russell.com.http://www.pastor-russell.com/volumes/V4/Study_07.html. Retrieved 31 July 2010.Revista Română de Statistică – Supliment Trim IV/2012 137

and imperialist movements throughout Asia and the Indian Ocean since the fifteenthcentury 4 .Vladislav Inosemtsev defines globalization as one of the most popular socialstudies of today, but is at the same time an empty term. It was first mentioned in literaturein the mid 1940s, but up until the mid 1980s it was mentioned only occasionally.After the Cold War the term began to be used to describe the world becomingmore interdependent in its economical and informational dimension 5 . Because of thecomplexity of the concept, research projects, articles and debates have remained mostlyfocused on one aspect of globalization 6 .Roland Robertson, a professor of sociology at the University of Aberden, was thefirst person who defined globalization as "the understanding of the world and the increasedperception of the world as a whole." 7 . Martin Albrow and Elizabeth King, sociologists,define globalization as "all those processes by which the peoples of the world areincorporated into a single world society 8 .In his paper "The Consequences of Modernity", Anthony Giddens uses thefollowing definition: "the globalization can be defined as the intensification of socialrelations throughout the world, linking distant localities in such a way that local happeningsare formed as a result of events that occur many miles away and vice versa 9 .In his paper ”Global Transformations” David Held studies the definition ofglobalization and says, "although in a simplistic sense globalization refers to a rapid globalinterconnection, deep and on large scale, such definition but requires now a more complexresearch".Globalization can be linked to the local, the national and the regional. On the onehand, a connection is made between social and economic relationships and networks,organized on a local and / or national, on the other hand, it connects social and economicrelationships and networks crystallized on wider scale the regional and global interactions.Globalization can refer to those spatial-temporal processes of change, whichconstitutes the fundament of the transformation of human concerns in an organization,linking together and expanding human activity across regions and continents. Withoutreferring to the expansion in space of the connections, there can be no clear and coherentformulation of the term globalization. A satisfactory definition of globalization mustaddress each of these items: extension, intensity, celerity and impact. 10 .The Swedish journalist Thomas Larsson, in his book ”The Race to the Top: TheReal Story of Globalization”, says that globalization "is the process of the shrinking of theworld, the shortening of distances, and the closeness of things. It allows the increased4 Hopkins, A.G. (ed.). (2004). Globalization in World History. London: Norton, pp. 4–8. ISBN 978-03939794285 Inosemtsev Vladislav L. Age of Globalization.2008. Num. 1.The Present Day Globalization6 Al-Rodhan, Nayef R.F. and Gérard Stoudmann. (2006, 19 June). "Definitions of Globalization: AComprehensive Overview and a Proposed Definition."7 Robertson, Roland (1992). Globalization : social theory and global culture (Reprint. ed.). London:Sage. ISBN 08039818728 Albrow, Martin and Elizabeth King (eds.) (1990). Globalization, Knowledge and Society London:Sage. ISBN 978-0803983243 p. 8. "…all those processes by which the peoples of the world areincorporated into a single world society."9 Giddens, Anthony. (1991). The Consequences of Modernity Cambridge: Polity Press. p. 64. ISBN978074560923210 Held, David, et al. (1999). Global Transformations Cambridge: Polity Press. ISBN 9780745614984138Revista Română de Statistică – Supliment Trim IV/2012

interaction of any person on one part of the world to someone found on the other side of theworld, in order to benefit" 11 .In 2000 the International Monetary Fund has identified four basic aspects ofglobalization: trade and transactions, capital movements and investment, migration andmovement of people and the spreading of knowledge. 12Pro and cons analysis of processes and conceptsThe reactions to the processes that contribute to the globalization processes haveseen a wide variety, with a history as long as it is extraterritorial in terms of contact,interaction and commerce.The philosophical differences regarding the costs and benefits of such processeshave given rise to ideological and social movements. Proponents of economic growth,expansion and development in general, see the globalization processes as desirable andnecessary for the good of human society.Critics see one or more processes of globalization as detrimental to social welfareon a global or local scale. 13This includes all those who question the social and natural sustainability on longterm, the continuous economic expansion, the social structural inequality caused by theseprocesses, and the colonial, imperialist or hegemonic ethnocentrism, the culturalassimilation and the cultural appropriation, emerging, influencing and linking suchprocesses.Key aspects of globalizationGlobalization is the favorite trap-concept of journalists and politicians. The termhas also become the key idea for the practice and theory of the business, but also came inacademic debates. Unfortunately, what people want to express or define by globalization isoften confusing. We further examine some key issues of the theory and experience ofglobalization.Globalization is usually used as a handy form to describe the spread ofcommunication production and connection technologies throughout the world. Most often,the term globalization is used in a confusing manner with respect to the efforts of IMF,World Bank and the institutions to create a free global market for goods and services. Thispolitical project otherwise significant (and potentially harmful for many poorer nations) isin fact designed to develop and exploit more complex processes.Globalization in terms of connectivity across the entire world of the economic andcultural life increased throughout the centuries. Yet many believe that the current situationis a fundamentally different order from what it was before. Globalization in terms ofconnectivity across the entire world of increased economic and cultural life throughout thecenturies. Yet many believe that the current situation is fundamentally different order fromwhat it was before. The communication and the exchange rate, the complexity and size ofthe networks involved, the volume of trade, the interaction and the risk give a strange forceto the label "globalization". With the increase of economic interconnection, the politicalchanges have deepened - the poorer "peripheral" countries became more dependent of the11 Larsson, Thomas. (2001). The Race to the Top: The Real Story of Globalization Washington, D.C.:Cato Institute. p. 9. ISBN 978-193086515012 International Monetary Fund . (2000). "Globalization: Threats or Opportunity." 12th April, 2000:IMF Publications.13 Sen, Amartya K. (1970). Collective choice and social welfare. San Francisco, CA: Holden-Day.Revista Română de Statistică – Supliment Trim IV/2012 139

"central" economies , such as U.S., where capital and technical expertise tend to beblocked. There was also a shift of power, far away from nation states and, as some argue,from multinational corporations. We have seen the growth and globalization of the "brand"It is not just large corporations operating in several different countries - they alsohave developed and brought on the market products that can be sold packing as well as inWashington. Brands like Coca-Cola, Nike and many others have become part of the life ofa very large number of people.The globalization involves spreading of ideas, practices and technologies, and it islittle more than internationalization and universalization. It is not simply the modernizationor westernization. Certainly it is much more than market liberalization.The globalization has 5 vectors that act on human society, vectors that influencethe development of human society. The vectors through which globalization interacts withsociety, both locally, regionally, and internationally are: the economic vector, the militaryvector, the political vector, the religious vector and the cultural vector. 14The discussions and analysis of globalization have distinct economic, political,cultural and social dimensions. Next, we turn our attention to a total of 4 themes thatregularly appear in the literature:a. relocation and over-territorialityb. speed and power of technological innovation and the increase of the respective risksc. growth of multinational corporationsd. how the forming movements of global free markets lead to instability and division.A particular aspect of globalization is that of the impulse and the power of changeinvolved. Will Hutton and Anthony Giddens say that globalization is the interaction ofextraordinary technological innovation combined with global influence, which gives today'schanging its complexity.For the countries in the vanguard of the economic world the balance betweenscience / knowledge and resources has changed in such way that science / knowledge hasbecome perhaps the most important factor determining the standard of living, much morethan land, tools, work. Today the most advanced economies in terms of technology arereally based on science / knowledge.The increase of the so-called "economic science" meant that economists werechallenged to look beyond labor and capital as key factors of production .Paul Romer and others have said that technology (and the science on which it isbased) must be seen as the third factor in driving the economy. Technology, science andglobal finance form together a force leading the economies.As Charles Leadbeater said, capitalism science consisting in "generating new ideasand then turn them into commercial products and services that consumers want" is nowconvincing and powerful. Inevitably, this leads to questions about the generation andexploitation of knowledge. There is already a division between rich and poor nations whichseems to be accelerated by "the science of capitalism ".Commentators and analysts like Charles Leadbeater said and argued for the needto innovate but also to recognize that the successful economic knowledge must beaddressed in democratically in terms of spread "we should create an open society,questioning, challenging and ambitious."14 Sandu, Cuturela (2009) “Dimensiunea Culturala a Globalizarii”, Congres A.R.A., Sibiu, Romania140Revista Română de Statistică – Supliment Trim IV/2012

There are powerful forces contrary to this ideal, and I refer in particular to thesignificant increase in the demands of the large corporations to be recognized intellectualproperty rights on new discoveries, for example regarding genetic research, from whichhuge profits will result, by licensing this knowledge to others. There are also serious doubtsthat modern economies are also and knowledge-based economy.The risk can be seen as the harmful possibility coming from technological andeconomic changes. In other words, the risks also becomes globalized. The risks ofmodernization have an inherent tendency to globalize. The universalization of the dangersaccompanying the industrial production occurs regardless of where the production takesplace. Supply chains practically connect everyone on earth with everyone else.Ulrich Beck said that there is digging under the borders and showed that there is aboomerang effect of globalization. Risks can trap all those who profit from or produceusing local raw materials for regional markets.The principle and logic of this argument of Ulrich Beck are quite simple andpossible: what endangers life on Earth threatens also the properties and commercialinterests of those living by the goods and products as a result of this life. Thus arises asystematic and intense contradiction between profit and property interests, that carry forththe process of industrialization on one hand, and their often threatening consequences, thatpossibly endanger and destroy possessions and profits on the other hand, not to mention thepossession and profits of life itself.We arrive thus at one of the central paradoxes that Beck called "the society risk".As knowledge increased, such increased the risk. Indeed it can be said that the socialrelationships, the institutions and the dynamic of generating knowledge emphasized the riskthey envolve. Risk has been globalized.Delocalization and over-territorialityManuel Castells has argued convincingly that in the last 20 years a new economyhas emerged around the world. He characterized it as a new brand of capitalism with threecharacteristics: management, productivity and competitiveness. These three elements arefunctions of the generation of knowledge / skills and information processing. Firms andterritories are organized in networks of production, management and distribution andconsequently the core of economic activities is global - that means that there is the ability towork in union, in real-time or at a certain time, on a planetary scale. This last idea is thesubject of many analyzes and discussions on globalization.Many activities that implied prior a face-to-face interaction or had local characterwould now be conducted from distance.John N. Gray stated that there was a significant social and economic exchangedelocalization. Activities and relationships were uprooted from their home places andcultures. An important element was the division between home work and the classic moveto the suburbs. But delocalization goes beyond that and therefore population growth mustface remote systems so that people can live their lives.The banking and retail sales have adopted new technologies that involve a reducedface-to-face interaction, such as online stores. The notion of distance and area are movedinto a new realm."The space" that we inhabit when using the Internet to buy goods and communicate mayallow us to develop a different sense of place and communication, to which we belong.The starting point in understanding the world of today is not the size of the GDP orthe destructive power of weapons systems, but that there is more union / overlap thanbefore. It may appear to be about individuals, firms, sovereign nations and separate cities,Revista Română de Statistică – Supliment Trim IV/2012 141

ut the deeper reality is that of multiple connections. Business is a classic example of suchinter-connectivity.The decline of the power of national governmentsNot only individuals and institutions have felt the impact of delocalization. Animportant causation of this process has been the declining power of national governmentsto direct and influence their economies (especially on macroeconomic management). Thechanges in economic activities, for instance in U.S. and Japan, are felt across the globe.Although the influence of nation states has declined, it has not disappeared altogether. Thepivot institutions remained, especially in terms of creating the necessary conditions ofactual government.Colin Leys points out that the impact of globalization is however a strongargument, and that it is most felt by the extent to which policies everywhere are nowessentially market driven. It means not only that the governments cannot "manage" nationaleconomies, but also that, in order to survive in their office, they have to increase theirability to drive national policies in such way as to be adapted to the pressures oftransnational market forces.In other words, the impact of globalization is not as oppressive in the area wherepolicy choices are taken directly, as it is heavy in the area where social relationships in allcountries are shaped and reshaped.While there is no doubt about the increasing scale and scope of the action ofmultinational corporation, their degree of control over the dynamics of globalizationremains however limited. In reality, they are often weak and amorphous organizations,faced with the loss of authority and the erosion of common values, which actually affectslately all modern institutions.Anthony Gray has noticed that the global market doesn’t allows corporations toassume the past functions of the sovereign states. Actually, both the ones and the othersbecome more and more weakened and overthrown. While multinationals have played asignificant role in the growth of globalization it is important not to exaggerate the degree ofcontrol they have on the dynamics of globalization.The emergence of global brands and institutionsAnother crucial aspect of the globalization is the nature and power of multinationalcorporations. It is significant that a quarter of world trade was made in 1999 throughmultinational corporations. Multinationals can affect communities in different locations andareas. Firstly, they seek to establish or contract manufacturing, service and sales operationsin countries and regions where they can exploit the cheapest labor and the cheapestresources.Although this can mean wealth brought to the respective community, this form ofglobalization produces significant inequalities, because it can also mean unemployment incommunities where they have been located previously. The remuneration paid in the newlocations can be minimal and the rights and working conditions of the employees can bebad.For example, Naomi Klein showed that in 1998, a review of economic zones,especially in China, showed that workers for the companies Ralph Lauren, Adidas and Nikeare paid 13 cents per hour, whereas the salary that can ensure living in that area was 87cents per hour, and in the USA a similar worker receives $10 per hour.Secondly, multinationals are looking for new and untapped markets, theysometimes seek to increase sales by creating needs in various target groups. An example is142Revista Română de Statistică – Supliment Trim IV/2012

the activity of tobacco companies in the countries of the southern hemisphere. Anotherexample is the development of markets populated predominantly by children and youngpeople. In fact, the market of products and services for children and young people hasgrown to be one of the most profitable and influential sectors.It is obvious that there is a profound effect on the rise, how we view childhood(especially in the Nordic countries and the developed ones) increases the product of theculture of the media consumer. This culture is supported through a direct contribution ofthe children, the so-called "Third World". Using various media, commodities have becomethe center of youth life in the West, building their identity and relationships, their emotionaland social universe.Adults and schools positioned negatively in this extended matrix , where thepleasure and power of youth are constructed in such manner as to take place away fromadults and schools, and mainly this could happen with the help of goods. Of course suchgoods used in everyday life are almost new. Writers like Erich Fromm commented on thephenomenon even in the early 1950.There was obviously an acceleration and intensification (and globalization)significant, parallel to the advent of brands, with a focus on the conditioning of childrenand young people to build identity around these brands.Thirdly, and related to the above, one can sense the erosion of the public space bycorporate activities. A significant area of pleasure, for example, moved to associativeforms, such as clubs and commercial activities. Young people are increasingly excludedfrom public spaces and schools as long as they are offered the opportunity to waste theirtime in relative safety, to work with mentors and to develop their talents and sense of selfworth.Like the concept of citizenship itself, the recreational spaces are now privatized, in abold attempt to make profit. Youth centers, public parks, basketball or streets where thechildren played ball came out of the sphere of interest. The play areas are now rented to thehighest price bid.This situation has been well documented in the U.S. (especially by the analystRobert Putnam) and found a profound implication in the quality of life of the communitiesand in the wellbeing experienced by these people.Fourthly, multinationals can have a significant influence in shaping policies inmany national and transnational government bodies, such as the EU and WB, both keyplayers in the globalization process. They took advantage of privatization and opening ofthe services.George Monbiot has shown that, analyzing the situation in the UK, for examplethe hospitals, the roads and the prisons were deliberately tailored to meet corporatedemands rather than people's needs.Biotechnology companies have sought to transform food chains in a controllablegood and have now a very strong and influencing link with government agencies andgovernment ministers. Corporations have become key factors in the decision makingprocess in the EU and, with the help of the British government, as shown in GeorgeMonbiot’s articles, they began to develop a transatlantic single market, controlled andmanaged by the executive heads of the corporations.While national governments power over the globalization of macro-economicalforces was limited in the past years, the services and support given to the citizens was seenas a significant opportunity by the corporations.In addition, national governments do have a considerable influence in theinternational organizations and therefore have become the target of the multinationalcompanies acting in this arena.Revista Română de Statistică – Supliment Trim IV/2012 143

The growth of multinationals and the globalization of their impact havedetermined the advent of brands. The astronomical growth of wealth and cultural influenceof multinational companies over the past 15 years can be attributed to an idea developed bythe management theorists of the 80s: successful corporations must first produce brands, asopposed to products. As Naomi Klein suggested, brand makers are primarily producers ofthe so-called knowledge/ skills economy.One of the key elements that make companies multinational rather thantransnational, is the expansion into what they regard as external sources of materials,components and services. The logical connection is that all corporations should not spendtheir finite resources in plants that can not keep on equipments that wear out and onemployees that age and die, but they should focus instead their resources on virtual bricksand mortar, in order to build brands.Nike, Levi's, Coca Cola and other large companies spend huge sums in order topromote and support their brands. One strategy is to try and establish a specific brand as anintegral part of what people understand or want to see. As we have already seen, regardingthe operations of multinational companies, they have a major impact on children and youthand on education. It is an attempt to "own the young".Significantly, focusing on the brand rather than on the intrinsic qualities of theproduct, also favors the multinational companies given the development conditions of themarket similar to the Achilles’ heel. Brand damage disproportionately affect sales andprofitability in various areas where that specific brand exists.If a brand becomes associated with failure and disgrace (eg a famous athlete thatwas used to promote their brand is exposed as a drug user or when the brand becomesassociated with child exploitation) companies face major problems on the market. For abrand, the image is everything.Significant approachesMajid Tehranian defines globalization as a process that began more than 5000years ago but was significantly accelerated after the fall of the Soviet Union, in 1991. Theelements of globalization include capital, labor, management, news, images, all transporterinformation. The main drivers of globalization are multinational corporations, transnationalmedia organizations, intergovernmental organizations, non-governmental organizations andalternative governmental organization. From humanistic perspective, the globalizationimplies both negative and positive consequences: narrows and widens the gap betweennations, increases and decreases the political domination, smoothes and multiplies thecultural identities.George Modelski has an interactive conception of globalization, and seesglobalization as a process with four dimensions: the economic globalization, the forming ofworld opinion, the democratization and the political globalization. Any change in one ofthese four dimensions determines changes in the other dimensions.Christopher Chase-Dunn brings, since the late 80s, a new term that enters thepopular discourse: globalization. Instead of clarifying the world development problems, theterm seemed rather to cause confusion and misunderstandings.There are at least five different dimensions of the globalization that need to bedistinguished: the economic globalization, the political globalization, the commonecological constraints, the cultural institutions and values and the globalization of thecommunication.While the early popular discourse on globalization appeared to suggest - at leastimplicitly - that the globalization and the global growth are in tandem, a closer look reveals144Revista Română de Statistică – Supliment Trim IV/2012

that some aspects of the globalization become more pronounced in the long run phases ofgrowth (1973 - 1992) in comparison with the initial term (1950-1973). Words like "uneven"and "limits" have begun to appear increasingly in the titles of academic papers onglobalization. This reflects not only a critical position but the obvious need for a cleartheorizing and an empirical research.Jeffrey Hart identified five concepts represented by the globalization: 1. Theexistence of a global infrastructure, 2. The global harmonization or convergence ofimportant characteristic 3. The lack of borders 4. The global Diffusion of initially localizedphenomena and 5. The geographic dispersion of core skills in the highest and mostdesirable activities. These concepts form a whole in which human society develops.Jerry Bentley says that for a general definition that would be applicable to allrelevant places and moments it is necessary to analyze the periods and to identify thedynamics. Some notable turning point in the history of globalization include among others:the migration of Homo erectus, somewhere between 500,000 and 1,000,000 years ago, thedomesticating of the horses and the invention of sailing, around 4000 BC, the invention ofthe wheel, 3500 BC, the domesticating of the camel, after 3000 BC, the establishing ofmaritime corridors in the Indian Ocean, after 500 BC, the opening of the silk road, around200 BC, the establishing of a permanent contact between Eastern and Western hemisphereand the Oceania, after 1492, the establishing of international trade companies, after 1600,the development of modern transportation and of communication technologies, after theindustrialization, and the emergence of transnational corporations and of the integratedglobal economy, in the twentieth century.Zdravko Mlinar brings to the forefront the idea of the existence of a pattern in thehistorical changes when he characterizes the process that avoids the differences betweenopen end transformation and repeatable and predictable sequences. Everything comes backagain in the evolution of the society, according to this pattern, but on another level on theevolutionary ladder. Myself, the author of this paper, on the issue of the definition ofglobalization, is that globalization is an extremely complex social phenomenon that has fivevectors (components) through which it exerts its action on a local, regional or transnationalcommunity: the economic vector, the political vector , the religious vector, the cultural andthe military vector.The five vectors are divided into active components - the economic and militaryvectors, in latent components - the religious and cultural vectors, and a mixed composition -the political vector. The theory presented by the author is based on the concept that theglobalizing force/society and force / globalized society interact continuously, and the resultof this continued interaction has a direct influence in both directions, both on theglobalizing society /community and on the globalized society / community.Conclusions.Some commentators say that there is no serious problem against globalization butagainst a certain type of globalization imposed by the global financial elite. The gapbetween rich and poor became considerably. However, to see globalization rather asWestern imperialism of ideas and beliefs (as rhetorically suggested often) would be aserious and costly mistake.Of course there are issues of globalization, issues that links it to the imperialism(history of conquest, colonialism and hostile/foreign ruling remain relevant even today, inmany ways) and to the understanding of the postcolonial world. Globalization has itsmerits. Therefore it would be a mistake to regard globalization as a kind of imperialism.Globalization is a far larger and more complex process than that.Revista Română de Statistică – Supliment Trim IV/2012 145

For example, while wealth and power of the multinationals seems to haveincreased significantly, neither they nor national governments have so much control overmacro-economic forces as they would like. Environmental and technological risks havemultiplied. Globalization, in the sense of connectivity to the global economic and culturallife, brings with it a different order than what it was before.As I said at the beginning, the communication and exchange rate, the complexityand size of the networks involved and the volume of trade, interaction and risk have madeglobalization a strange force. All of this raises many questions for educators, leaders andopinion makers. The emphasis of the expanding tendencies of the businesses beyond thenational borders is one of the main manifestations of the globalization. Every state wants toachieve improved growth potential, both by developing the domestic markets and bydeveloping new markets.By increasing the efficiency of use of the multinational operating system acoherent management of the existing national resources is reached, but at the same time, wecan address directly the management of the existing and available resources in othergeographical areas. Social and economic movements of the early millennium, broughtstrongly to the attention of sociologists, politicians, decision-making groups, the need fornew attitudes towards globalization. The phenomenon began to be perceived in all itscomplexity, by everyone involved in the political, social and economic-financialmanagement systems, as an inevitable phenomenon, characteristic of our modern era, andmost importantly, we began to analyze more attentively the function of regulating thedevelopment of modern human society that globalization exerts.References[1]. Beck, U. (1992) Risk Society, London: Sage.[2]. Castells, M. (2001) 'Information technology and global capitalism' in W. Hutton and A.Giddens. (eds.) On The Edge. Living with global capitalism, London: Vintage.[3]. Frank, T. (2002) One Market Under God. Extreme capitalism, market populism, andthe end of economic democracy, London: Vintage.[4]. Fox, J. (2001) Chomsky and Globalization, London: Icon Books.[5]. Gray, J. (1999) False Dawn. The delusions of global capitalism, London: Granta.[6]. Held, D., McGrew, A., Goldblatt, D. and Perraton, J. (1999) Global Transformations -politics, economics and culture, Cambridge: Polity Press.[7]. Hutton, W. and Giddens, A. (eds.) (2001) On The Edge. Living with global capitalism,London: Vintage.[8]. Klein, N. (2000) No Logo, London: Flamingo.[9]. Leys, C. (2001) Market-Driven Politics. Neoliberal democracy and the public interest,London: Verso Books.[10]. Monbiot, G. (2000) Captive State. The corporate takeover of Britain, London: Pan.[11]. Scholte, J. A. (2000) Globalization. A critical introduction, London: Palgrave.[12]. Sen, A. (2002) 'How to judge globalization', The American Prospect Online,[13]. Wolf, A. (2002) Does Education Matter. Myths about education and economicgrowth, London: Penguin.146Revista Română de Statistică – Supliment Trim IV/2012

CAPM Evaluating RelationProfessor Gabriela-Victoria ANGHELACHE, PhDgabriela.anghelache@gmail.comProfessor Viorel LEFTER, PhDAndreea NEGRU (CIOBANU), PhD StudentGeorgeta BARDAŞU, PhD Studentgeorgeta.lixandru@yahoo.comAcademy of Economic Studies, BucharestAbstractConsidering as starting point the theory developed by H.Markowitz in the years΄50, J.Treynor (1962), W. Sharpe (1964), J. Lintner (1965) and J. Moshin (1966) haveelaborated the famous model for evaluating the financial assets, CAPM. This model isutilized in order to set up the expected yield of an asset starting from the yield of a nonriskyasset and the average yield of the capital market. As we shall see, the crucial elementof the CAPM model is given by the coefficient beta (β) that measures the sensitiveness ofthe asset as against the market risk (known as systematic risk). The restrictive conditionsinvolved for getting a valid extended CAPM model have generated the specialists΄ concernin respect of finding out another derivate of the original CAPM applicable to the integratedcapital markets. So the international CAPM model was created, which has been developedstarting from the hypothesis that the investors are interested for yields expressed in theirnational currency. The international CAPM model requires that the investors take intoaccount the exchange risk whenever they are placing their capital in foreign assets.Key words: financial asset, CAPM model, market risk, sensitiveness, yieldJEL Classification: G17, G32The evaluating model is based on the following assumptions: the investors are rational, meaning that they are searching to maximizethe obtainable utility by the placements they do (hypothesis to meet withMarkowitz model as well; The expected yields of the financial assets are aleatory normal distributedvariables;The financial market is a perfect market, hypothesis that implies the following:- there is a large number of investors on the market, none of them being inthe position to influence significantly the equilibrium rate of the financialassets. Therefore, it is considered that the investors a price takers;- the assets dealt on the market are perfectly divisible;- the market is efficient, in the sense that the equilibrium prices of thefinancial assets enclose all the available information at the respectivemoment; the information of financial market are available free of chargeand non-discriminatory for all the investors;- the investors may borrow or lend at the risk-free rate of the economy,without restrictions as to the amount of the transaction;- there are no costs of transaction;- the operations of short selling are authorized on the market.Revista Română de Statistică – Supliment Trim IV/2012 147

All the investors have the same expectations concerning the expected risks andyields of the financial assets (hypothesis of the homogenous expectations).In order to deduce the CAPM evaluating relation, we remind a significant outcomeobtained previously: the portfolio of the market M is conjugated to the risk-free asset fromthe economy. Let us study now the product between the matrix of covariance Q and thestructure vector of the market portfolio xM (all notations applied so far are kept):On the other side, writing the unfolded matricidal product Qx we get:where x Mi , I =1,N represents theweights of the individual assets in the structure of the standard portfolio M. After effectingthe calculations, it results:Observing, of course, the conventionIt is easy to demonstrate the fact that the elements of the vector resulting from theproduct Qx are just the covariance between the expected yields of the individual assets andthe yield of the market portfolio M:previous relation by a2M we get:dividing both members of theThe quantityrepresents the volatility coefficient of the asset i and is notedas …?. This indicator may have both positive and negative values. The vector lwillbe noted by O, and the relation will be rewritten as follows:: .The yield of the market portfolio equals to:, while thedifference e(rm)-rf is: :Introducing this last result we get:This is the formula for the CAPM evaluation as a in vector form. Approaching thematter at a individual level, the expected yield of the asset I is evaluated as follows:148Revista Română de Statistică – Supliment Trim IV/2012

This is the equation of the fundamental line of the financial assets (SML). Theslope of the SML line is equal with the market risk premium, respectively with thedifference between the average yield of the market and the risk-free rate.An alternative formula is,whereis the market price of the risk or the Sharpe ratio.The formula is indicating the fact that the yield expectation for a financial asset iscomposed of the risk-free rate to which a risk premium is added, equal to the productbetween the volatility coefficient of the asset and the difference between the marketsexpected average yield and the same risk-free rate. We can deduce immediately that, which justify the fact that the indicator P measures the sensitiveness of theyield of an asset in connection with the average yield of the market. Depending of theabsolute value of the volatility coefficient, the specialized literature shows the followingclassification of the financial assets:- aggressive assets, for which P > 1. In the case of these assets, to amodification by one percentage point of the average yield of the marketcorresponds a modification (same sense, if P is positive, or the reverse ifP is negative) of the expected yield of the asset with more than apercentage point;- neutral assets, characterized by P = 1. In their situation, if the averageyield of the capital market records a modification of one percentagepoint, then the variation of the expected yield of the asset is of the samesize.- still assets, with P

The traditional CAPM model has been subsequently developed with the purpose toacquire applicability at international level, so that the extended CAPM model had beencreated. The reason for developing this model consisted of the need to create a frameworkfor evaluating the financial assets in the context of the integrated capital markets, whichwas conceived so that it keeps the simplicity and the elegance of the classical CAPMmodel.The evaluating formula proposed by the extended CAPM model is:, where:• Rf = the risk-free interest rate of the local market of the investor;• 7cg = the risk premium of the global market, namely the excess of expected yield (asagainst Rf) of a portfolio containing all the risky assets on the global market, weighteddepending on their market capitalization;• P = the sensitiveness of the expected yield E(R) in connection with the global riskpremium. Obviously, the global market portfolio is a practical concept impossible to put inpractice, which made that the popularity of the extended CAPM model is a very limitedone. Additionally, a severe limitation of the extended CAPM model is given by the need ofthe following additional two (unrealistic) hypotheses enabling the model to be valid:■ all the investors of the world hold identical consumption baskets;■ the purchasing power parity is always verified; in other words, the fluctuations of theexchange rate between two currencies will be exclusively established by the differential ofthe inflation rates from the two countries.The restrictive conditions involved for getting a valid extended CAPM model havegenerated the specialists΄ concern in respect of finding out another derivate of the originalCAPM applicable to the integrated capital markets. So the international CAPM model wascreated, which has been developed starting from the hypothesis that the investors areinterested for yields expressed in their national currency. The international CAPM modelrequires that the investors take into account the exchange risk whenever they are placingtheir capital in foreign assets.Thus, besides the market risk premium, which we already discussed, the investorsmust consider also the exchange risk premium afferent to each foreign currency from theirportfolios. The exchange risk premium (7ipx) is defined as the expected variation of theexchange rate minus the differential of the risk-free interest rates related to the localcurrency of the investor and, respectively to the foreign currency:where:E(Si) = the expected exchange rate of the following period;So = the exchange rate at the present moment;rpL = risk-free interest rate in the investor΄ s currency;rps = risk-free interest rate in free currency;In the hypothesis that the uncovered parity of the interest rates, according to whichthe percentage variation of the exchange rate between two periods is equal with thedifferential of the interest rates for the two foreign currencies, is verified then the exchangerisk premium has the following expression (F denotes the forward exchange rate):150Revista Română de Statistică – Supliment Trim IV/2012

To the extent that the forward exchange rate is a non-shifted estimator of the spotexchange rate in the future, the exchange rate premium is null. The hypotheses of theinternational CAPM model are very similar with those at the basis of the traditional CAPM:- the investors show aversion to the risk; in other words, they would prefera higher yield at the same level of the undertaken risk. Meantime, takinginto account that the portfolios management on the integrated capitalmarkets assume the exposure to the exchange risk, the investors wouldlike to protect themselves against this risk (for instance, by dealing withfutures on the exchange rate);- the investors have homogenous expectations, namely they have the sameanticipations concerning the yields, the volatilities and the correlations ofthe financial assets;- the investors are interested in the nominal yield expressed in theirnational currency;- there are risk-free assets denominated in each foreign currency. And allthe investors can borrow or lend unlimited amounts in any currency.However, given the fact that now the exchange risk does exist, the onlycompletely free-risk investment is the free-risk asset denominated in thelocal currency of the investor;- there are no taxes and no transaction costs.The two hypotheses required for the extended CAPM model (all investors have thesame consumption basket and the purchasing power parity is verified) they are notnecessary in the case of the international CAPM model. The international CAPM modelpostulates the fact that any investor will hold a portfolio partially composed of the risk-freeasset on the local market and the global market portfolio covered at the optimum levelagainst the exchange risk. If the global portfolio will be the same for all the investors, theinternational CAPM model does not unfortunately supply any operative indications at all asto what particularly represent the optimum protection against the exchange risk.The evaluating formula proposed by the international CAPM model is thefollowing:, where:•Rf = the risk-free interest rate on the local market of the investor;•ng = the risk premium related to the global market, equal to the excess of the expectedyield of the global market as against the Rf;•Pg = the sensitiveness of the yield E(R) in connection with the modifications in the globalmarket portfolio •7tj = the exchange risk premium related to the free currency i;•Yi = the sensitiveness of E(R) in connection with the fluctuation of the exchange rate ofthe free currency iAccording to the international CAPM model, the expected yield of any asset isequal with the risk-free interest rate of the investor, to which the risk rate premium of theglobal market is added, tuned depending on the coefficient beta (related to the globalmarket, of course) and risk premiums for each currency of the portfolio. It is important tonote the fact that all the yields involved are quantified in the local currency of the investor.Out of the calculating relation one can note that the international CAPM model differs fromthe traditional CAPM model from two aspects angle. First of all, the relevant risk is theglobal market risk. Secondly, supplementary risk premiums are added for each currency. Ifthe risk of the global market is conceptually consistent with the initial CAPM model, theRevista Română de Statistică – Supliment Trim IV/2012 151

sensitiveness to the exchange risk premiums represents an unique characteristic of theinternational CAPM model.As a practical expedient, the analysts assume frequently that the exchange riskpremiums are zero over a long-term basis – as a result of the verification, more or lessempirical, of the theory of the uncovered parity of the long-term interest rates. In thiscontext, the evaluating formula given by the international CAPM model is reduced to:Singer and Terhaar (1997) propose an extension of the international CAPM modelthat takes into consideration imperfections of the market such as the low liquidity and thesegmentation degree of the market. The CAPM equation proposed by the two of them is:, where:- r: = the expected yield of the financial asset i-Rf = risk-free interest rate-Pi = sensitiveness (systematic risk) of the asset yield against the global market- RM = the expected yield of the global marketFurther on, we shall process the above equation in order to set up the risk premium relatingto a financial asset, as follows:As known, for Pj the valid expression is, where:-OiM – the covariance between the yield of the asset I and the yield of the global market Mportfolio-piM = the coefficient of correlation between the yield of the asset I and the yield of theglobal market M-aM = the volatility of the global market yieldsSince the difference between the expected yield of the asset i and the risk-freeprofitableness represent the risk premium related to the asset, which we shall note nu, weshall have the following expression of:where from we shall deducenamely,whichrepresents the product between its coefficient of correlation with the global market, itsvolatility and the Sharpe rate of the market. Singer şi Terhaar show that the value of theSharpe rate for the global portfolio has been estimated between 0.28 and 0.30, but this issubject of changes in time.The analysis performed by Singer and Terhaar (1997) reveals the need to adjustthe international CAPM model for the imperfections of the capital market, such as the lowliquidity and the segmentation. To the extent an asset is less liquid, the liquidity riskpremium should be higher. Generally speaking, the liquidity is not a major concern for thedeveloped capital markets but it is important in the case of the investment in real estate orin private equity funds.In order to evaluate the liquidity risk premium, a solution proposed by the twoauthors consists of estimating the multi-period Sharpe ratio related to the asset (until this152Revista Română de Statistică – Supliment Trim IV/2012

ecomes liquid) and comparing it with the multi-period Sharpe ratio of the market. TheSharpe ratio of the asset must be at least as high as the market one; in other terms, the assetmust secure at least the same yield adjusted to risk (the yield per undertaken risk unit) asthe overall capital market.When the capital markets are segmented, the circulation of the capital flows overthe national borders is restricted. Under the conditions of the integrated capital markets, thecapital circulation is free. The government restrictions on the international investmentsrepresent a frequent cause of the markets segmentation. If the markets are segmented, twoassets bearing the same risk might have different expected yields since the capitals can notbe invested in the asset with higher expected yield. The presence of the investment barriersmakes the risk premium for the financial assets increase on the segmented markets.In fact, the markets are not totally segmented or integrated. According to thetheory of the behaviorist finances, the investors show a preference for the capital marketsfrom their origin countries, which refrains to a certain extent the integral exploitation of theinvestment opportunities at the international level. As shown by several authors, the capitalmarkets from the developed countries are integrated in a proportion of about 80%, while inthe case of the emergent markets the degree of of integration counts for a value of about65%.A number of specialized researches underline that the main short-coming of theCAPM model consists of the fact that the financial assets yield predicted by this one ismerely representing a “compromising value” generally accepted by the market playersunder conditions of market efficiency (perfect information). However, as the financialpractice shown over several decades, the markets are inefficient because of the existence ofthe informational asymmetries, which implies, of course, a margin of error, not at allnegligible to the CAPM model. The international financial practice pointed out mixedoutcomes of the model application, varying from the identification of the valid correlationsbetween the market yields and the measure of the beta systematic risk, up to theimpossibility of formulating conclusions regarding the model efficiency.Another vice inherent to the CAPM model consists of the fact that it has asfundamental hypothesis the fact that the market pays back the systematic risk only and,therefore, the specific risk is not taken into account. However, this last one is frequentlyplaying a significant role in estimating the financial assets yield; at an empirical level,several studies have emphasized the fact that even on the most developed markets(implicitly, the most efficient) the assets market yields are influenced to a not at allnegligible extent by factors such as market value, P/E ratio etc., namely factors typical for acompany. Meantime, the asymmetric way in which the CAPM “perceives” the risk, on thebasis of the statistical measurement of variant, makes it predisposed to evaluation errors,since inn fact, for the big majority of the investors, the risk of a financial assets consists ofthe probability to record losses. Also, the CAPM model is dependent on the existence of arich set of statistics for the calibration of its parameters, which makes its applicationimpracticable for evaluating new issues of equities. The lack of flexibility of the CAMmodel, due to the dependence of the evaluated yield on the market portfolio, representsanother short-coming of this one.Nevertheless, the bigger issue of the CAPM model seems to be its limitedefficiency in evaluating the expected yields of the assets transacted on the emergentmarkets. This occurs due to several reasons, the first – and the most important one –beingrepresented by the fact that the markets liquidity is low, the stock exchanges are listing asmall number of companies while the informational asymmetries are particularlypronounced, which result in the lack of objectivity when setting up the market quotationsRevista Română de Statistică – Supliment Trim IV/2012 153

for the equities. There is also the impossibility of an efficient diversification of theinvestors’ portfolios, which implies that the specific risk of the equities is high, invalidatingthus the outcomes of the CAPM model application.References[1]. Anghelache, G.V., (2004) – „Piaţa de capital. Caracteristici.Evoluţii.Tranziţii”,Editura Economică[2]. Black, F., Jensen, M.C, Scholes, M. (1972) – „The capital asset pricing model: someempirical tests”, Studies in the Theorz of Capital Markets, 79-124.[3]. Copeland, T; Weston, F. (2004) – “Financial Theory and Corporate Policy”, 4 th edition,Addison-Wesley Publishing Company;[4]. Fama, E.F. (1976) – “Foundations of Finance”, New York;[5]. Miskin, F. (2009) – „The economics of money, banking and financial markets”, 9 thedition, Pearson[6]. Singer, B.D., Terhaar, K.(1997) – “Economic Foundations of Capital Market Returns”Research Foundation of The Insitute of Chrtered Financial Analysts)154Revista Română de Statistică – Supliment Trim IV/2012

Romanian Higher Education Infrastructure andResourcesProfessor Mihaela MURESAN, PhDmihaela.muresan@yahoo.comSenior Lecturer Emilia GOGU, PhDarina_emilia@yahoo.com“Dimitrie Cantemir” Christian UniversityAbstractThe paper is focused on the analysis of the higher education from the point of viewof the human resources and the existing infrastructure. The analysis of the Romanianeducation system is based on a desk research articulating the statistical data analysis withempirical observations and pertinent benchmarking. The authors aim at demonstrating theincreased role of the tertiary education to the Romanian education system and to the socioeconomicdevelopment. Moreover, the study reveals the need of additional resources for theRomanian tertiary education system in order to become more competitive in the EuropeanHigher Education Area and in the European Research Area.Key words: Higher education, tertiary education resources, tertiary educationinfrastructureJEL Classification: I23Contribution of the Romanian universities to provide specific competencesThe tertiary education system has a significant contribution in providing therequired competences and skills on the labour market, especially within the framework ofthe global knowledge society. Salmi (2002) clearly believes that the tertiary educationsector must play a central role in preparing societies for new times. Tertiary education isindeed central to the creation of the intellectual capacity on which knowledge productionand utilization depend and to the promotion of the lifelong-learning practices necessary forupdating people’s knowledge and skills (Salmi, 2002, p. 1).The large impact of the global crisis has a significant impact on the socioeconomicprocesses, generating a significant economic loss and social difficulties,especially a substantial increase in unemployment. In this case, the achievement of the maingoals of the 2020 European Strategy could be jeopardized. In order to tackle these threats,the EU should re-think the public spending on knowledge, i.e. the investments in researchand innovation and also in tertiary education (Ritzen, J., Soete, L., 2011).The statistical data demonstrate the significant contribution of the public tertiaryeducation institutions for providing the needed skills and competences for the actual globalknowledge society. Thus, in 2011-2012, the total number of students enrolled in the publictertiary education system has been 399464 persons, distributed in an approximatelybalanced manner in 3 categories: 32.5% students enrolled in technical faculties, 33.6%students enrolled in faculties of languages, sciences and juridical fields, and 33.9% studentsenrolled in the faculties of economics, medicine, agriculture and other profiles (figure 1).Revista Română de Statistică – Supliment Trim IV/2012 155

Figure 1.From the total number of students enrolled in the public post-university educationsystem (143700 persons), 75.7% students have been enrolled in the master programmes,16.2% have been enrolled in doctoral programmes and 8.1% have been involved in postuniversitylong-term courses.Concerning the field of expertise for the post-university programmes, the students’distribution reveals the people’s interest for the engineering sciences (25.5%) and economicsciences (23.1%). For other realms, the students’ distribution shows the students’orientation to the judicial (12.6%), social and political domains (12,3%), medicine (9.4%),human sciences (7,8%), mathematics and sciences (5.3%) all the other areas representingonly 4%, as it is illustrated in the figure 2.Agricultural profileFigure 2.156Revista Română de Statistică – Supliment Trim IV/2012

The most significant rates related to the doctoral studies have been noticed in theengineering sciences (22,6%), medicine and pharmaceutical field (21,0%), humanitiessciences (11,7%) and economic sciences (10,9%).In the private tertiary education 51 entities with 204 faculties have beenfunctioning in 2011-2012. The total number of students in the private tertiary education hasbeen 140400, in 2011-2012. The majority of the students enrolled in the tertiary educationchose the in class learning programmes (67,5%). The open distance learning system hasbeen preferred by 9,1% from the total number of enrolled students in the tertiary education.The rest (23,4%) chose the learning system with a reduced number of in class learninghours mixed with self-learning hours. In the private tertiary education entities, theeconomic profile represents 34,1%, the judicial field rate stands for 31,5%, the sciencesrepresent 22,0%, and the small technical (6,3%), medical (4,9%), artistic (0,8%) andagriculture faculties (0,4%) cumulate only 12,4%. In the private education institutions thereare 21444 students enrolled in the master, doctoral and post-university programmes withthe following distribution: economic sciences - 54,7%, social and political sciences -22,5%, judicial sciences - 12,9%, and all the others specialization - 3,5%. In the privatesector, the doctoral studies have been oriented to the judicial field (65,1%), medicine andpharmaceutical field (24,9%) and natural sciences (10,0%).Infrastructure and resources of the tertiary education systemThe tertiary education system is confronted with significant challenges, accordingto the knowledge global society requirements and to the dynamic changes in all the sectors.Beside the changes of the contents and topics, the system has to solve important issuesconcerning the needed infrastructure and resources. The most critical resources arerepresented by the professors’ competences and their capacity to cope with the actualchallenges, in order to increase the quality of the research and educational processes. Thelack of an adequate infrastructure and competences has a negative influence especially onthe research activities. Consequently, the performance of the tertiary education and itscompetitiveness at the European level is diminished. In order to improve the Romaniantertiary education’s contribution to the sustainable development, its infrastructure should beimproved, as well as the human resources’ competences.It should also be stressed that the actual financial crisis and the negativedemographic rate create new obstacles for the tertiary education system.a) Tertiary education infrastructureIn 2010-2011, the national tertiary infrastructure encompasses 108 entities, 57being public institutions. The distribution between the public and private tertiaryinstitutions is quite balanced concerning the number of the institutions (51,9% public and48,1% private institutions). It should be mentioned that, due to the quality standards and thedifficulties the tertiary education is confronted with, the number of the private tertiaryinstitutions remains the same in 2011-2012 as it was in 2002-2003.The situation is different related to the number of faculties, classrooms, lecturehalls labs, PCs. Analysing the tertiary education infrastructure, the public sector has a majoradvantage related to the number of faculties and the educational offer, as it is illustrated inthe figure 3.Revista Română de Statistică – Supliment Trim IV/2012 157

Figure 3The geographical distribution of the tertiary education institutions demonstratesthe concentration of the higher education institutions in major cities, which aresimultaneously the most important higher education centers: 16 universities (87 faculties)in Bucharest, 6 universities (42 faculties) in Cluj-Napoca, 5 universities (37 faculties) inIasi and 4 universities (34 faculties) in Timisoara. The private higher education institutionsfollow the same distribution as the public sector.The analysis of the higher education infrastructure show a better situation for thepublic sector which has 2894 lecture halls and classrooms, 2802 seminar rooms, 8821 labs,533 workshops, 188 gyms, 250 sport fields and 18 swimming pools. In 2011-2012, in theprivate higher education sector, there were only 716 lecture halls and classrooms, 1514seminar rooms, 635 labs, 15 workshops, 37 gyms, 40 sport fields and 8 swimming pools.A very important indicator related to the higher education system capacity isrepresented by the quality of the information and communication technology infrastructure,where the number of personal computer should be considered as main indicator. The totalnumber of PCs installed in the higher education institutions has been, in 2010-2011,105257 units of which 84,3% belong to the public tertiary education system, 92,1% beingconnected in the network, as it is illustrated in the figure 4.Figure 4Another interesting tendency has been noticed concerning the evolution of thenumber of PCs used in the tertiary education. Despite the ascending trend observed in both158Revista Română de Statistică – Supliment Trim IV/2012

public and private systems, the rate of growth is lower in the private sector and the numberof the PC is significant lower in the private higher education institutions than in the publicones (figure 5). The differences concerning the existing number of PCs denote theinvestment gap between the public and private sectors in the higher education area.Figure 5b) Human resourcesThe results of the education processes are directly related to the quality of thehuman resources, i.e. the professors and the researchers who are active in the highereducation system. Beside the professors’ competences the number of the teachers is alsocrucial for the coordination of the students during the learning and research processes. Theevolution of the teachers’ number involved in the tertiary education has been oscillating inthe last years without a clear correlation with the changes related to the number of thestudents.In 2010-2011, the total number of people involved in the tertiary education systemhas been 31200 persons, with 2,7% less than in the previous year. From the total teachingstaff in 2010-2011, 5800 persons were full professors, 4100 being involved in the publictertiary education system. The total number of associate professors has been in the sameyear 5600 from which 4600 persons belong to the public education sector. From the totalnumber of lecturers (8800), 7500 have been involved in the public education sector. Thetotal number of teaching assistants has been 7800, from which 6600 belong to the publichigher education system. The statistical data show a significant advantage for the publicsector concerning the number of the teaching staff. Moreover, from the total number ofteaching staff in the public higher education sector 99,2% are full time employed,meanwhile in the private sector only 92,5 % are full time employed.A positive trend is represented by the fact that the teaching staff employed in thehigher education institutions is very young, i.e. more than 55% from the public highereducation sector and approximately 60% from the private tertiary education sector belongto the age group 25 - 44 years.Revista Română de Statistică – Supliment Trim IV/2012 159

The teaching staff’s geographical distribution shows the high concentration in theBucharest city (more than 30% from the total number of the teaching staff involved in thetertiary education). In the private tertiary institutions from Bucharest are employed morethan 60% from the total teaching staff involved in this sector.Simultaneously, the academic system represents a generator of ideas and goodpractices emerging from research processes, the doctoral research having a significantcontribution (Davis, H., 2006). The findings and valuable research results stand forvaluable assets for the innovative processes at regional, national and international level.Despite the relative good evolution related to the tertiary education attainment inRomania, the research and innovation policies have not been sufficiently focused onharnessing this important potential. The major issues related to the Romanian highereducation system consist in their weaknesses related to the research capacity. The low rateof investments in research activities has a negative influence on the results in this sector.On one side the research infrastructure is not adequate and on the other side the number ofpersons involved in the higher education research is low. Moreover, the time allocated forthe professors for specific research purposes is insufficient, jeopardising the results of theresearch.ConclusionsThe tertiary education and the research and innovation activities represent the coreof the knowledge economy. The actual financial crisis reinforces the need of findinginnovative solutions for the sustainable development and for ameliorating the negativeeffects of the crisis. The vicious circle of the lack of public investments for education andresearch should be broken and new bridges between public and private areas should be builtin order to support the intellectual capital development (Muresan M., 2012).In order to accomplish its role and to overcome the effects of the financial crisis,the university system should become more flexible and adapted to the market requirements.In this respect, the modernisation of the higher education system represents a priority forthe knowledge economy especially in Romania. Besides the curricular changes targeted onthe development of graduates’ new competences, adequate for the global knowledge world,the Romanian higher education system needs to improve its infrastructure in order to copewith the actual challenges and to improve its research capacity.The bivalent articulation of the university systems, on one side with the researchand innovation area and, on the other side, with the business area could ensure the premisesfor an efficient education, more responsive to the real needs of the society.The specific Romanian situation should be emphasised in order to a bettervalorisation of the human capital, especially the advantage in science and technologiesknowledge, and competences. In this context, a better policy orientation and a moresignificant financial support could facilitate the deeper involvement of the universities inresearch and innovation activities, with positive results for the whole economic and socialsustainable development.References[1]. Biji, E.M. and others. (2002). Tratat de statistică (Statistics Treaty), Ed. Economică(Economics Publishing House), Bucharest, Romania[2]. Davis, H., Evans, T.,.and Hickey, C., (2006). A Knowledge-based EconomyLandscape: Implications for Tertiary Education and Research Training in Australia,Journal of Higher Education Policy and Management, Vol. 28, No. 3, November 2006,231–244.160Revista Română de Statistică – Supliment Trim IV/2012

[3]. ***, European Innovation Scoreboard, http://www.proinno-europe.eu/innometrics/page/romania.[4]. European Commision (2011 a). Innovation Union Scoreboard (IUS) 2010,ProInnoEuropean Paper no. 18, 2011 .[5]. European Commission (2011 b). Annual Growth Survey, Annex 1, Progress Report OnEurope 2020. COM(2011) 11 - A1/2, 13-25.[6]. Muresan, M., Gogu, E. (2012). Tertiary Education’s role in Research and Innovation,WCES 2012, Procedia Social and Behavioral Sciences, Elsevier, 2012.[7]. Ritzen, J., Soete, L (2011). Research, higher education and innovation: redesigningmultilevel governance within Europe in a period of crisis. UNU-MERIT WorkingPapers, October 2011, 6-10.[8]. Salmi, J. (2002). Constructing knowledge societies: New challenges for tertiaryeducation. Washington, DC: World Bank, from http://wwwwds.worldbank.org/servlet/WDSContentServer/WDSP/IB/2002/11/01/000094946_02102204203142/Rendered/PDF.Revista Română de Statistică – Supliment Trim IV/2012 161

Methodology Concerning the Utilization of theValue at RiskProfessor Gabriela-Victoria ANGHELACHE, PhDgabriela.anghelache@gmail.comAndreea NEGRU (CIOBANU), PhD StudentLorand KRALIK, PhD Studentlorand17@gmail.comAcademy of Economic Studies, BucharestAbstractThe value at risk (VaR) represents an estimate, at a certain level of probability andunder normal conditions of the market, for the maximal level of value loss that may berecorded by a portfolio of financial assets over an established time horizon.Originally, the VaR methodology has been used by the banks for internal purposesbut it acquired an increasing significance after the amendment brought in 1996 to the BaselI Agreement, the surveying authorities encouraging the banks to apply the VaR. The maincharacteristic of the VaR model consists of the emphasize which it put on the expectedlosses as a result of the volatility of the market value of the financial assets, and not on thelosses generated by the gains volatility.Key words: value at risk, financial assets, portfolio yields, models, confidenceprobabilityJEL Classification: G321. General notions concerning the value at risk (VaR)The VaR method is utilized as an instrument of the market risk management byboth the financial institutions (banks, insurance companies) and the non-financialcompanies and investment funds. For instance, if for a bank the daily value at risk amounts50 thousand EUR at a confidence level of 95%, this amount means that, under normalmarket conditions, the bank cannot record a loss higher than 50 thousand EUR, with aprobability of 95%, hence for 5 cases only out of 100, the losses can exceed 50 thousandEUR. This example considers 5% level of risk (which corresponds to a confidence level of95%). In other terms, it is anticipated that for 5% of the days, the expected loss will exceedthe value at risk (or the expected loss will be lower than the VaR level for 95% of the days).The first formal of the value at risk has been developed by JP Morgan înRiskMetrics, the fundamental formula being:VaRx = Vx x dV/dP x Pt ,where:- Vx = the market value of the portfolio x- dV/dP = the sensitiveness of the portfolio value as against the fluctuations of the marketrates- APt = the value of the adverse variation of the market price (expressed by interest rates,exchange rates, shares stock exchange rates or prices for certain commodities) , t representsthe time horizon; the Basel Agreement recommends a 10 days interval.162Revista Română de Statistică – Supliment Trim IV/2012

As submitted by Heffernan (2005), any model for estimating the value at risk musttake into consideration a series of aspects:- which is the frequency for calculating the VaR (daily, monthly, quarterly ? etc.);- the identification of those positions/portfolios that are affected by the market risk;- the risk factors which changes the market value of the positions/portfolios; The BaselCommittee stipulates four risk factors, namely the interest rates (more precisely, theirstructure by maturities – yield curves), the exchange rates, the shares stock exchange ratesand the commodities prices.- the confidence intervals. As a rule, these are calculated for a confidence level of 99% (asrequired by Basel) and unilaterally, since VaR is addressing to the possible losses only, notto the potential gains as well. If the option goes to a confidence interval of 99%, the lossshould occur in 2-3 days per year. Fixing a percentage of 99% corresponds to a morecautious, conservative approach.- the financial assets holding period. The setting up of this one (t) will depend on thetargets of the exercise. For instance, the banks holding liquid assets will be concerned withthe daily VaR, while the pensions funds or the investment funds will prefer to calculate theVaR on a monthly basis. The Basel Committee specifies a 10 working days horizon,justifying it by the fact that a financial institution might need more than 10 days to liquidateits portfolio.- the choice of the probability distribution corresponding to the yields, aspectwhich is going to be discussed further on.As shown by Heffernan (2005), the specialized literature consecrated a number offive methods for the VaR calculation: the delta-normal method (known as the parametricmethod due to the working hypothesis with normal distribution, or the variance-covariancemethod), the delta-gamma method (or the Graecisms one), the method of historicalsimulations, the method of the extreme conditions testing (the scenarios analysis) and thelast but not the least, the method of Monte Carlo simulation. Further on, we shall proceed toa review of these approaches for the calculation of the value at risk.We can say that the fundamental hypothesis of the delta-normal method consists ofthe normality of the distribution of the analyzed portfolio financial assets yields.The portfolio yields is calculated as an average of the composing financialinstruments yields weighted depending the initial value of the instruments, as follows:which implies the fact that the considered portfolio yield follows, at its turn, a normalprobability distribution as well.The portfolio volatility is calculated as a squared average deviation of the recordedportfolio values from the average, namely – written in a matricidal form:, where:w = the vector of the weights of the financial assets in the considered portfolio;Z = the matrix of variance-covariance, namely the squared n-dimensional matrix having thestructure:Revista Română de Statistică – Supliment Trim IV/2012 163

where Ojj represents the covariance between the yields of the assets i and j from theportfolio structure and Gj represents the variance of the asset i.The VaR calculated at the level of the financial assets portfolio becomes:where:Vo = the initial value of the portfolio;c = the confidence coefficient relating to the considered probability distribution (whichvalues are shown by tables).Due to the utilization of the variance-covariance matrix, this method is called alsothe variance-covariance method. It can offer the estimate for the market risk associated witha much extended portfolio of assets with gamma null (their payoff function is linear whichmeans that the first differential – delta – the modification relating to the rate modification isa constant, while the second differential – gamma – is null). The delta normal method is aparametric method for estimating the being a partial model of evaluation since it takes intoconsideration the linear dependences only (delta) and ignore the non-linear factors, such asfor instance, the convexity of the bonds and the gamma indicators of the options. The deltagammamethod is demonstrating accuracy when the considered portfolios are composed oftraditional financial assets or of linear derivatives, but it cannot be utilized when the nonlinearityis present. In order to set up the variance-covariance matrix different models ofthe heteroscedastic volatility (namely the conditioning or the dependence on the timevariable) are used, excepting the stochastic volatility (models ARCH, GARCH, EGARCH,IGARCH, EWMA – the model of the exponential mobile weighted average), which arebased on historical rates.The most utilized models in the international financial practice are those ofGARCH type, mainly the GARCH model (1,1). The ARCH model has a practicalapplicability relatively limited; the EWMA model of the exponential mobile weightedaverage has been invented and suggested by J. P. Morgan in his RiskMetrics, while thestochastic volatility is intensely debated among the theoreticians and the market players butwith good prospects to get implemented. We shall succinctly submit further on thesemodels.The original ARCH model proposed a change of the vision on the way to estimatethe volatility according to which the squared average deviation, through its way ofcalculation, grant an equal weight (l/n) to all the historical observations taken intoconsideration in the volatility setting up:The Engle model succeeds to overcome this inconvenient, by granting anincreased importance to the most recent observations and by reducing the weights of themost remote observations. In addition, it includes also in the calculation a so-called longtermaverage (V), to which it grants a weight noted by y. Thus, the variant (dispersion)164Revista Română de Statistică – Supliment Trim IV/2012

from which square root the volatility is resulting, is expressed with the help of thefollowing formula:The GARCH(1,1) model is a particular case of the generalizing GARCH (q,p)models. His model acquired an increased popularity due to its relative simplicity, beingsimilar to the Engle model. The formula for this variant is in this case:where y + a + P = 1.,The GARCH(1,1) model suggests that the predicted variant is based on the mostrecent observation of the assets yield and on the last calculated value of the variant. Thegeneral model GARCH(q,p) is predicting the variant on the basis of the last q observationsand the most recent p estimated variants.The EWMA model is a particular case of the previous model where the weight ofthe average volatility on long-term is considered null (y = 0). In this context, the model canbe rewritten as follows:The estimation of the correlation coefficients between two different time series isof an equal significance with the volatility estimation. The correlation coefficient (py) isexpressed by the following formula:where the covariance is calculated as follows:The coefficient lambda or the factor of degradation of the most recent data isdetermining the importance granted to the last historical data. Thus, the extent to which thevolatility is influenced by the last information coming from the market varies depending onthe coefficient chosen value. To the extent lambda is smaller, the estimated volatilityresponses lesser to the most recent evolution of the market. Here, the risk managers arefacing the issue of achieving a compromise between granting more importance to the mostrecent information from the market or to the previous volatility, meaning practically to the“older” data. In respect of the two sides composing the compromise, the specializedliterature shows two concepts:- "the shadows" or "the ghosts"- occur when the predicted volatility is"shadowed", excessively marked by the previous tendencies of the rates.When individualizing for the l EWMA model, "the ghosts" are occurringwhen there is a too big lambda;- the error of extraction/randomizing – when choosing a too small lambda,the significance of the general tendency of the volatility valorized by thehistorical data gets reduced, to the benefit of the most recent data.Revista Română de Statistică – Supliment Trim IV/2012 165

The advantages of the delta-normal method of calculating the VaR are thefollowing:- the method is easy to implement;- in the case of the gamma and vega-null portfolios, having a structurewhich does not change, the calculated VaR for one day time horizon canbe utilized for measuring the VaR for la larger horizon, on the basis of thesquare root model, namely:represents exactly the difference between the two horizons.where AtThere is also a lot of criticism regarding the delta-normal method, respectively:- it does not take into account the extreme situations that may occur duringthe analyzed period, without being predicted presently. We have to pointout here that this is lack of all the forms of the VaR calculation groundedon historical data;- there are "fat tails" in the real distributions which the yields of thegamma-zero assets follow, fact which suggests that their prices are moreinclined to take extreme values than to indicate the normal distributionhypothesis. That is why, the estimated maximum loss for the risk horizonconsidering a certain probability is in fact smaller than it is in reality;- thirdly, the method does not take into consideration other than the deltarisk, being thus unable to evaluate the value at risk for the portfolios thatinclude non-linear instruments, namely those which gamma may differ ofzero. The incapability of the method arises from the fact that delta may berapidly modified under the conditions of a gamma relatively large andbecause of the fact that the largest losses may be recorded also forintermediary values of the equities rate not only for the extreme values.In order to compensate the disadvantage of the previous method, we can apply tothe alternative delta-gamma method, called thus because it takes into consideration both therisks gamma and vega. However, the method bears an essential disadvantage: theexcessively complex degree of calculations. The more the types of risks are (delta, gammaand vega) and more instruments exist in the portfolio, the more the complexity of theanalysis is increasing geometrically. The best alternative to this method is the Monte Carlosimulation. This is the reason due to which the delta-gamma method has a narrow enougharea of implementation.As mentioned above, a significant lack of the variance-covariance method isgenerated by the hypothesis of the normal distribution for the financial assets distributions,so that the risk of extreme losses may be underestimated. The approaches based onhistorical simulations have the merit to bring in their own contribution to counteract thisinconvenient.The advantage of this method consists of the fact that it makes no presumption asregards the yield distribution, as in this case the empirical distribution obtained from theanalysis of the past data is used. Meantime, the historical simulation has the advantage ofbeing a relatively simple method that does not require the calculation of the variancecovariancematrix. In exchange, this method has the disadvantage that it predicts the futuredevelopment based on the past, contradicting thus the theoretical models that consider theassets price as being of the category of the Markov type processes.166Revista Română de Statistică – Supliment Trim IV/2012

As shown by HefTernan (2005), the historical simulation method is a nonparametricmethod for the VaR calculation and, meantime, a complete model of evaluationsince it take into consideration any type of dependence, either linear or not, between theportfolio value and the risk factors. As to the statistic horizon required in order to giveconsistency to the analysis, the Basel Committee recommends a period of minimum oneyear of history (in fact, as in the case of the delta normal method).The method shows a series of specific features that distinguish it from the otherfour methods. As suggested by the naming, the testing of the extreme conditions could benot utilized by itself as a technique of estimating the value at risk, as it comes to completethe outcomes obtained through an independent method. This is necessary in order toevaluate the effects of the most severe markets, with a small probability of achievement.Afterwards, it is characterized by a high subjectivism comparatively with the othermethods, as this method is grounded on adding certain extreme value to the fundamentalfinancial variables, which have been chosen by the analyst with the purpose to see whichwould be the maximum loss in the situation the risk occurs. This is the reason due to whichthe method of testing the extreme conditions bears a high degree of operational risk.The Monte Carlo simulation technique is considered as being the most relevantand efficient in the VaR estimation. In this case, the distribution of probability of theportfolio yield over the next h days is obtained by generating multiple scenarios for all therisk factors taken into account and by composing the portfolio value under these conditions.The method is flexible, being applicable to all the categories of portfolios but it ischaracterized by a inherent complexity of the calculations and requires a careful choice ofthe evaluating models for the financial assets from the portfolio structure.The actual VaR calculation implies the measurement of the following twoparameters: the time horizon (h) that is considered for the risk estimation and theconfidence probability (p) or the percentage of tolerance at risk (1-p) at which the risk iscalculated. Once these two elements set up, the VaR can be calculated in two variants:a. as difference between the current value of the selected portfolio and the smallestvalue of the portfolio (knows as quantil), considering h – the selected time horizon, with theset up probability p;b. as the difference between the expected value of the portfolio, considering thechosen risk horizon h with the probability p and the smallest value of the portfolio (quantil)for the same time horizon h and the same probability p.Now, we consider the following notations:Wo = the present market value of the portfolio:Wh = the expected average value of the portfolio according to the chosen time horizon h;Rm = the average yield of the portfolio over the time horizon h;W = the smallest value (quantil) that can be recorded by the portfolio over the time horizon,corresponding to the established confidence level;R = the yield relating to the quantilApplying the above notations, we can write the following two relations:Using these two relations we can calculate VaR (the maximum expected loss) inthe two variants, as follows:a. as against the current value of the portfolio on the established time horizon:as against the expected average values of the portfolio on the time horizon h:Revista Română de Statistică – Supliment Trim IV/2012 167

The smallest value of the portfolio yield at the risk profile, R-, is calculated starting fromthe function f of the yield R distribution, as follows:If the cumulative function of distribution (the repartition function) is known and mainly inthe situation where it is just the cumulative function of the normal distribution, thecalculation of the value at risk gets considerably simplified. This happens in our case: theyields follow a normal distribution, so that we can write:We shall have, of course:withwhere from:From the tables concerning the repartition function of the standard normaldistribution, the following critical values for the parameter d are resulting, corresponding tothe probabilities, such as:Probability(P) 99% 97,5% 95% 90%Threshold d (x < d) 2,33 1,96 1,65 1,29By replacing the value of R in the calculating relation of VaR, we get the VaRformula for the hypothesis of the normal distribution:a. as against the current market value Wo of the portfolio:0.It is known that the average yield on very short terms tends to zero, so that Rm =b. as against the expected average value of the portfolio for the chosen time horizon, Wh:Consequently, the maximum loss of the portfolio (the value at risk), is calculatedaccording to the relation:VaR = Current market value x Confidence level x VolatilityTaking into consideration the fact that the yield follows a normal distribution,there is a relation through which two VaR estimations can be equated, one of them having acertain degree of tolerance at risk while the other estimate having a different percentage, onthe basis of the following formula:Noting with a and ^ the two percentages of tolerance at risk, we shall have:168Revista Română de Statistică – Supliment Trim IV/2012

where:If we consider the hypothesis that the yields of one portfolio values follow a normaldistribution, it must be pointed out that there is a relation for equating a VaR estimation,with a percentage of tolerance at risk of 5% and a second estimation having anotherpercentage of 1%:have:where, according to the standard normal repartition function weReferences[1]. Anghelache, G.V., (2004) – „Piaţa de capital. Caracteristici.Evoluţii.Tranziţii”,Editura Economică[2]. Lintner, J. (1965) – „The valuation of risk assets and the selection of risky investmentsin stock portofolios and capital budgets”, Review of Economics and Statistics 47, 13-27[3]. Copeland, T; Weston, F. (2004) – “Financial Theory and Corporate Policy”, 4 th edition,Addison-Wesley Publishing Company;[4]. Fama, E.F. (1976) – “Foundations of Finance”, New York;[5]. Miskin, F. (2009) – „The economics of money, banking and financial markets”, 9 thedition, Pearson[6]. Mossin, J. (1966) – „Equilibrium in a Capital Asset Market”, Econometrica Vol. 34,No. 4, 768-783.[7]. Sharpe, W. (1964) – „Capital asset prices: A theory of market equilibrium underconditions of risk”, Journal of Finance 19, 425-442.[8]. Treynor, J. (1962)- „Toward a Theory of Market Value of Risky Assets”, Unpublishedmanuscris..Revista Română de Statistică – Supliment Trim IV/2012 169

Aggregate Measures and Related Price IndicesAssistant Amelia DIACONU, PhD Studentdiaconu.amelia@gmail.com“Artifex” University of BucharestAbstractThe authors of this article deal with the issues raised by aggregate measures andtheir related price indices within an integrated system of the economic statistics. Apartfrom the aggregate measures’ content used for the main price indices, this article alsopresents the methods for their assessment and registration, considered useful forpractitioners in determining the prices and weights used in establishing the indices.Key words: accounts, resource, aggregate level, service, goodsJEL Classification: C43General DataThe aggregate value for a field of goods and services is defined as the sum of theprices and quantities product for those goods and services that are part of the relevant field.The price index can be characterized as a factor that measures the relative changeof this aggregate value as a result of the price change. Consequently, all the important priceindices measurement formulas may be expressed as the weighted mean of the relativeprices of which weight is represented by each product’s (item’s) contribution to the overallvalue. Out of the most familiar price indices measurement formulas expressed as theweighted mean of the relative prices, we mention the Laspeyres index, the Paasche indexand the Walsh and, respectively, the Torngvist indices. Expressed as the geometrical meanof the Laspeyres and Paasche indices, the Fischer index may as well be considered afunction of the expenditures’ weights directly derived from the overall value.In order to develop a price index, certain features of the overall value must beknown from the beginning. The aggregate value defines the following aspects of the priceindex:- what merchandise or item must be included in the index- how is the price per item or merchandise determined- type of transactions that involve these items included in the index- how are the weights determined and what should be the source of suchweightsThere are four important types of price indices known and closely monitored in theeconomic statistics system, i.e.: the Consumer Price Index (CPI), the Producer Price Index(PPI) and the export and import price indices (EPI and IPI). These indices do not include orshould not include a collection of irrelevant indicators, in exchange, they should provide aconsistent and integrated view upon the evolution of prices in terms of production,consumption and international goods and services transactions. That is why, the meaning ofthese indices results in great part from the meaning of the aggregate value to which each ofthem refers, separately. The existing relations between the most important four priceindices are defined by associating them to the centralized aggregates established by theSystem of National Accounts (SNA). The system of national accounts is subjected fromtime to time to revision, the last version being the one in 2008.170Revista Română de Statistică – Supliment Trim IV/2012

In what follows, we will explain the concepts used for defining the institutionalsectors and the types of transactions mentioned by SNA in order to observe better theassociation between the four types of indices and the measured aggregate values, usingthese concepts.The system of national accounts is described in the 2008 version, as follows:„The System of National Accounts is a standard set of recommendations, agreed atinternational level, on the method of measuring the economic activity, in consistency withthe strict conventions of accounting based on economic principles. The recommendationsare expressed within the terms of a set of concepts, definitions, classifications andaccounting rules/norms that include the standards on the measurement of elements such asthe gross domestic product (GDP), one of the most cited indicators of economicperformance. The SNA accounting framework allows the calculation and the presentationof the economic data in a format conceived with the purpose of substantiating the economicanalyses, the decision-making and the issuance of economic policies. The accounts display,in a condensed form, a great mass of detailed information, organized according to theprinciples and perceptions upon economy’s means of operation.They provide a detailed and comprehensive registration of the economic activitiesthat take place on a state's territory and of the connections between different economicoperators or group of operators that occur on a market or in any economic environment.The system's architecture makes available accounts that meet the followingrequirements:- they are complete, meaning that all the activities are covered and, bymeans of consequence, so are the operators existing in the economy;- they are consistent, because for determining the consequences of a singleaction upon all the parties involved identical values are used, using thesame accounting rules- they are integrated, meaning that all the consequences of an operator’ssingle action are necessarily reflected in the accounting results, includingthe comprisal in the balance sheets of the impact upon the measurementof the wealth.”SNA 2008 contains a complete framework, the resources-uses chart thatestablishes and shows the connections between all main goods and services flows that takeplace in an economy. The flows included in this chart and their contents are defined,classified and measured consistently from a conceptual viewpoint. This chart presentssimplified and directly the existing connection between the production, consumption,distribution, import and export of goods and services. Thus, it may be considered that thischart represents an adequate framework for the establishment and formation of a statisticprice system consistent at domestic level, which refers to a set of goods and services flowsthat are economically interdependent.Resource and Use of Goods and ServicesAt the most aggregate level, the resource and the use of goods and services in thenational accounts are represented by the basic macroeconomic identity, i.e.:P Im p T IC C H I Exp,(1)where P Im p Trepresents the total value of resources and IC C H I Expthe total value of uses.Revista Română de Statistică – Supliment Trim IV/2012 171

By subtracting the intermediate consumption and the import from both equationparts (1) we discover the alternative calculation expressions for the gross domestic product(GDP), known as the production method and the expenditure method:P IC T GVA T C H I Exp Im p GDP(2)The gross domestic product (GDP) is internationally known as the centralmacroeconomic aggregate for the measurement of the economic performance at nationallevel. More precisely, it measures the added value of the production activities performed byall the resident units registered in an economy.Because Import (Imp) is not included in the GDP, the GDP price index (deflator)measures the inflation generated at domestic level. The calculation of the indices that allowthe monitoring of the relative changes of the GDP and of its components and the attributionof such changes separately per prices and volume represents one of the main objectives ofthe price statistics development based on a modern statistic system.As I will explain hereinbelow, the resources-uses chart (RUC) within the system ofnational accounts (SNA) 2008 is a complete economy matrix which includes the identitieshighlighted through equation (1) and (2) at the detailed disaggregation levels. Each matrixline indicates the total use of a product or group of products and each column presents thetotal resource obtained from the domestic production activity and from import. RUCprovides an accounting framework which imposes discipline both with respect to conceptsas well as to the numerical consistency of the data regarding the goods and servicesoperations obtained from different sources. The operations must be defined, classified andassessed in a similar way and any error must be reconciled. RUC represents a solid basisfor the calculation of an interdependent set of price and volume indices.Resources-Uses Flows SystemIn order to separate the price and the volume components of resources and of uses,we need to build the aggregates mentioned in equation (1) based on the economicoperators’ institutional sectors accounts. The basic accounts of SNA 2008 where all suchaggregates are recorded at the institutional units’ level are the following: the productionaccount, the revenue use account, the capital account and the goods and services operationsexternal account. According to these accounts, the products and services operations of theinstitutional units are organized as follows:- Production account: production P is recorded under resources, and theintermediate consumption IC under uses. This account’s balance is thegross value added (GVA)- Revenue use account: the expenditure for the final consumption C isrecorded under uses- Capital account: the gross capital formation is recorded under uses- Goods and services operations external account: the import Imp isrecorded under resources, and the export Exp under uses.Recording the Goods and Services OperationsThe aggregates mentioned in equation (1) represent the goods and services flowsclassified by operations categories. There are two defining aspects for the recording of suchoperations: the moment and the assessment.The moment the operation is recordedThe general principle of the national accounts is that the operations in theinstitutional units must be recorded at the moment the receivables and debentures are172Revista Română de Statistică – Supliment Trim IV/2012

created, transformed, disappear or when such are cancelled. This principle bears the nameof principle of recording based on the ascertained right.In other words, in order to associate each operation to a moment, the nationalaccounts consider each operation as consumed when the event occurred and a paymentobligation exists. In the case of goods and services flows, this happens when the propertyright upon the good is transferred or when the service is provided. It is said that anoperation is ascertained when the property exchange occurred or when the service wasprovided. It is not automatically implied that such moment is similar to the moment whenthe payment was made.This principle may seem simple, but its enforcement into practice is complicateddue to the fact that the institutional units involved do not always use the same accountingrules and even when such rules are similar, differences may appear at the level of recordingowed to delays in communication. Such differences must be removed through specificadjustments.The System of National Accounts uses three price concepts, according to the wayin which taxes and subventions per product are recorded, as follows:- Base price – represents the price paid to the producer by the purchaser,comprising the subventions per product and excluding any type of tax perproduct. Likewise, the price does not include the transport and deliverycosts, invoiced separately by the producer- Production price - represents the price paid to the producer by thepurchaser, which excludes the deducible value added tax (VAT) and anytransport and delivery expense separately invoiced by the producer- Purchase price - represents the price paid to the producer by thepurchaser, which excludes the deducible value added tax (VAT) andincludes the transport and delivery expenses separately invoiced by theproducer.According to these concepts, two assessment principles may be distinguished, oneapplied to the producer (supplier) and the other one to the purchaser (user).In equations (1) and (2), production P and import Imp are assessed at the baseprice to which the taxes per products are added and the subventions per products aresubtracted in order to assess the total resource at purchase price. In the case of imports andexports the assessment is made at the FOB price (free on board), which means the valuedeclared at customs, at the exporter’s border.Below, we elaborate on the main aspect of the four types of accounts and on theproducts and services operations pertaining to each account.Production Account and ProductionThe production account records the operations related to the production process. Itis calculated for the institutional sectors and for the activity branches. It includes productionP under resources and intermediate consumption IC under uses.The production account allows the obtainment of one of the main accountingbalances of the system, namely the value added, which is the value created by an unit hiredin an activity that highlights a production process and an essential aggregate: the grossdomestic product. The value added has an economic meaning both for the institutionalsectors, as well as for the activity branches.The value added (the account balance) may be calculated – as well as all accountsbalances – prior or after the deduction of the fixed capital consumption. Therefore, we mayspeak about gross value added and net value added. Due to the fact that production isRevista Română de Statistică – Supliment Trim IV/2012 173

assessed at the base price and the intermediate consumption is assessed at the purchaseprice, the value added does not include taxes, but it comprises the subventions per products.At the overall economy level (national economy), in the production accountresources, to the production of goods and services taxes are added, save for the subventionsper products. This allows the obtainment of the gross domestic product (at the marketprice).The production account is related to the definition of production. Production is anactivity performed under the control and responsibility of an institutional unit that combinesresources (labour force, capital, goods and services) in order to produce goods or to provideservices. The purely natural processes that do not involve the human intervention or controlare not part of the production.SNA 2008 differentiates between the production performed at the level of aninstitutional unit, using a classification according to the types of unfolded activities. Themost aggregate level is the enterprise which is seen as an institutional unit hired inproduction or, in other words, each institutional unit may be assimilated to the notion ofenterprise. The term of enterprise may refer to a company, non-profit institution or to anenterprise without legal personality.The greatest part of the production is performed by a relatively low number oflarge companies that are involved in several types of production, and, practically, there isno threshold for the expansion of the production diversity at the level of a large enterprise.If all enterprises are grouped based on their main activities, at least some of the resultedcategories are susceptible to be very heterogeneous in relation to the type of performedproduction processes and, likewise, to the produced goods and services.Thus, in order to analyse the production in which the production technology playsan important role it is necessary to work with groups of producers that are mainly hired inthe same type of production.The production includes all the products manufactured throughout an accountingperiod. The particular cases below are included in the production, as well:- the goods and services of a unit with local economic activity provided toanother unit with local economic activity belonging to the sameinstitutional unit;- the goods that are produced by units with local economic activity at locallevel and that remain in stock by the end of the period over which theywere produced, irrespective of their subsequent intended use.Nevertheless, the goods and services produced and consumed over the sameaccounting period by the same local institution are not subjected to different recording.Thus, neither are they recorded under production, nor under the intermediate consumptionof such unit.The production of an institutional unit comprising several local institutions is equalto the sum of the relevant units’ productions, also comprising parts of the production whichthe units exchange between them. SNA distinguishes between: the market production, theown final consumption production and other non-market production. The same distinctionis also applied to local institutions and to institutional units.This distribution is fundamental, due to the fact that it determines the selection ofthe applied assessment principles, namely: the market production or the total production ofother non-market goods or services producers.In a price index formation process, we must focus on those operations of theorganizational units that occur at significant prices from an economic viewpoint –subsequently, we will be interested in the market production. According to SNA, the174Revista Română de Statistică – Supliment Trim IV/2012

significant price from the economic viewpoint is the price that has a significant effect bothupon the quantity a producer is willing to offer as well as upon the quantity a buyer iswilling to buy.The prices collected for the market production elements may, nevertheless, be usedin assessing the production for the own final consumption. Thus, the price indices rangemay be extended in order to also cover this component of the non-market production.Revenue Use Account and Household Final ConsumptionFor the institutional sectors that have a final consumption, the revenue use accountindicates the way in which the available revenue is distributed between the finalconsumption expenditure and the savings.In the SNA, only public administrations, the institutions without lucrative purposein the service of households and the population households have final consumption. Theflows for these goods and services may be decomposed in price and volume componentsand this is why they are interesting for the statisticians in the prices field.The final consumption expenditure comprises the individual consumptionexpenditures and the collective consumption expenditures.The final consumption expenditure financed by the different sectors taken intoconsideration: population households, public administrations and institutions withoutlucrative purpose in the service of population households, is included in the availablerevenue use account.SNA also uses a notion for the final consumption, i.e. the effective finalconsumption. This notion corresponds to the value of goods and services effectivelyavailable to the population households for their final consumption, even though theirprocurement is financed by the public administration or by the institutions without lucrativepurpose in the service of households. Consequently, the effective final consumption of thepublic administrations corresponds only to the final collective consumption. As the finalconsumption expenditure of the institutions without lucrative purpose in the service ofhouseholds is considered as full individualized, their effective final consumption is null.Household consumption may have three distinct meanings. Firstly, it may meanthe total set of individual goods and services acquired by the households, including the onesreceived as social transfers in kind. Secondly, it may mean the effective payments made bythe population in order to procure a subset of products and services for own use. In order todifferentiate between these two meanings, SNA 2008 describes the first as being theeffective consumption of households and the second is found under the notion ofpopulation households consumption expenditure. The third possible interpretation ofhousehold consumption is the effective physical process of goods and servicesconsumption, i.e., that process in which the utility notion appears and which determines thehouseholds’ standard of living. The goods and services consumption or use process mayoccur after their acquisition, as many consumption goods may be stored.The existence of social transfers in kind is not recognized by the consumer priceindices, even though it is desirable to consider them, especially when we approach theevolution of the cost of living. Moreover, the governments may start to ask for the paymentof services which were previously provided for free, a practice that became more often metin many countries. The goods and services provided for free as social transfers could,virtually, be seen as part of the household consumption expenditures – but at zero price.The passage from the zero price to a positive price is, by means of consequence, a priceraise that may be recorded by a consumer price index.Not all household expenditures are monetary. A monetary expenditure is one inwhich the equivalent of the procured good or service is the creation of a certain type ofRevista Română de Statistică – Supliment Trim IV/2012 175

financial obligation. This obligation may be extinguished immediately through a monetarypayment, though many monetary expenditures are made using credits. The householdconsumption expenditures also comprise certain expenditures for goods or services whichthe households produce for their own use. These are treated as expenditures because thehouseholds incur the costs for their production.The referred household expenditures accepted by SNA include all the expendituresfor goods which the households produce for their own consumption, but exclude all thehousehold services produced for their own service, except for the rental services producedby the occupants-landlords. The referred prices to which the included goods and servicesare assessed are their estimate market prices. In the case of rental services, the prices are therents practiced on the market. Other prices, such as the prices of vegetables, fruit, dairy ormeat products produced for their own use could be included if they account for asufficiently high component from the household’s consumption expenditures.It is useful to note that all the household consumption expenditures are individualexpenditures by definition. We may distinguish within SNA the aggregate indicators for thehousehold consumption, relevant for the CPI indices.Capital Account and Gross Capital FormationThe capital account records the acquisitions minus the non-financial assetsassignations to the resident units and measured the variations in the net value owed to theeconomy and capital transfers.The capital account allows us to determine to which extent the acquisitions minusthe non-financial assets assignations have been financed through economy and capitaltransfers. It causes to appear either a financing capacity, which is the amount available to aunit or to a sector in order to finance, directly or indirectly, other units or sectors, or afinancing need that corresponds to the amount a unit or sector is obliged to lend to otherunits or to other sectors.As mentioned before, the element that draws the attention from the viewpoint ofthe decomposition into the volume and price components is in our case the gross capitalformation.It would be easy to conclude from all the above about units and institutionalorganizations that the smallest economic unit to which the capital account may refer is theinstitutional unit. It is known that only institutional units draft balance sheets and canmonitor the stock variations. Nevertheless, the physical capital goods of which evolution ismonitored in the capital account can be and should be recorded if possible, under localinstitutions. Such data is useful especially in order to analyze productivity, even thoughcomplete capital accounts cannot be drafted at local institution level.Goods and Services Operations External AccountThe goods and services imports are recorded in the account’s resources and thegoods and services exports are recorded under uses. The difference between resources anduses represent the account balance, known as "the goods and services external exchangesbalance". If the balance is positive, it represents a surplus for the rest of the world and adeficit for the overall economy, and vice-versa if the balance is negative.In order to be consistent with the base price of the resident units’ production theimports of goods are recorded at a level equivalent to the base price, i.e. by excluding thetaxes per imports, but including the subventions per imports.Imports and exports of goods recorded in the goods and services operationsexternal account are measured in the FOB value, i.e. at the border of the exporting country.176Revista Română de Statistică – Supliment Trim IV/2012

On the other hand, when the transport and insurance services included in the FOBvalue of the imports of goods (meaning between the enterprise and the exporter’s border)are produced by resident units, we mention that they must be entered in the services exportvalue of the economy importing the goods. Symmetrically, when the transport andinsurance services included in the FOB value of the exports of goods are produced by nonresidentunits, they must be entered in the services import value of the economy exportingthe goods.Resources-Uses ChartThe resources-uses charts are matrixes by branches of activity (industry) and byproducts that describe in detail the internal production activities and the operations perproduct of the national economy. The chart shows: the production costs structure and therevenue generated by the production activities; the goods and services flows produced inthe national economy and the goods and services flows with the rest of the world. Theresources chart includes the goods and services resources by product and by source, makingthe difference between the domestic production and the imports.Two fundamental identities connect the resources chart to the uses chart:Identity by branch: Production by branch = Entries by branch;Identity by product: Total resources by product = Total uses by product:Production + Imports + Taxes minus subventions per product and import = IntermediateConsumption + Exports + Final Consumption Expenditure + Gross Capital FormationThese identities by activity branch and by product serve for the verification andimprovement of the estimates’ coherence and comprehensiveness.The resources and uses charts serve for statistic and analytical objectives. Themain statistical needs that can be covered are the following:a) identifying the gaps and inconsistencies that affect the basic data;b) weighting and calculating the indices that measure price and volume;c) obtaining the estimates in a residual manner (in order to obtain a variable, startfrom the estimate of all the other variables, the unknown variable resulting asa difference), especially for the production and final consumption of specificproducts;d) verifying and improving coherence, reliability and comprehensiveness of thedata included in the resources and uses charts and of the deriving numbers(e.g. the production accounts numbers). Finally, the accounts balancingprocess should not be limited only to the resources and uses charts in currentprices.References[1]. Anghelache, C. (2009) – „Indicatori macroeconomici utilizati in comparabilitateainternationala” (Macroeconomic Indicators Used in International Comparability), 57thConference "Statistics – past, present and future”, ISBN 978-90-73592-29-2, Durban,ISI rated article[2]. Anghelache, C. (2004) – „Sistemul European al Conturilor – note de curs” (EuropeanAccounts System – lecture notes), Ed. ARTIFEX, Bucharest[3]. Anghelache, C., Capanu, I. (2003) – “Indicatori macroeconomici. Calcul si analizaeconomica” (Macroeconomic Indicators. Calculation and Economic Analysis), EdituraEconomica, Bucharest[4]. Jaba, E. – „Statistica” (Statistics), Editura Economica, Bucharest, 2007Revista Română de Statistică – Supliment Trim IV/2012 177

The Audit of InnovativeEnterprises (Universities) inEducational ManagementAssociate Professor Gabriel I. NĂSTASEgabriel_i_nastase@yahoo.com"Dimitrie Cantemir" Christian UniversityDepartment of Finance, Banking and AccountingDirector General of Department of European Studies MasterDirector of the Center for Research, Education and Applied Finance-BanksMember of the Academy of Scientists from Romania(AOSR)Member of the Romanian Committee for History and Philosophy of Science andTechnology (CRIFST) of the Romanian AcademyResearcher Dr. Engineer Dan C. BADEAUniversity POLITEHNICA of Bucharest (UPB)AbstractIf a university, due to the nature of its activities (teaching and search activities),organization, structure and functionality specific purpose for which they were establishedmainly with direct educational development and the other two components of theknowledge triangle: research and innovation.Key words: Research, development, innovation, audit, managementJEL Classification: I21General considerationsIf a university, due to the nature of its activities (teaching and research activities),organization, structureand unctionality specific purpose for which they wereestablished mainly with direct educational development and the other two components ofthe knowledge triangle: research and innovation.The model innovation assessment for universitiesGiven that the size of a university innovation is a complex process, given that youcan not establish uniform evaluation criteria which are associated to a system of specificindicators in this regard, for these problems has also taken proposed development ofa multi criteria evaluation model (Fig. 1.1).To get an overview of innovation at a university level to develop a proposedassessment model based on five key components of innovation (potential drivinginnovation, knowledge creation potential, ability to integrate a relational system, theability structuring activities and ability to exploit intellectual property), with directimplications for sustainable development of the university, which are associated evaluationcriteria. It envisages a set of criteria associated with each component of innovation so that,for each criterion, to identify indicators of characterization. For each indicator, criteria,component is given a number of points depending on their degree of achievement of RDI178Revista Română de Statistică – Supliment Trim IV/2012

compared with other centers within the university. Scoring system operates at between 1 to10, which granted the degree of fulfillment of each criterion after analyzing indicatorsassociated to each criterion.Fig. 1.1. The model of innovation assessment for universitiesFor each component subject to evaluation, is assigned a weighting. Also, for eachcriterion is assigned a coefficient of importance, so that the weighting coefficient associatedwith the innovation component to represent the sum of the coefficients of importanceassociated criteria established for that component. Group evaluation components andassociated weighting coefficients, system criteria, indicators and associated criteriaimportance coefficients, the system of evaluating the criteria, and recommended measuresto improve the assessment of a criterion may be a model for establishing the degree ofinnovation at a university. To determine the degree of innovation was at a universitydeveloped a model based on key components of innovation (eg potential drivinginnovation, knowledge creation potential, ability to integrate a relational system, ability tostructure activities capability to exploit the intellectual property, etc..) with directimplications for sustainable development of the university, which are associated criteria andindicators of innovation. Innovation indicators, such as sustainable, it must be consensualand give a representative picture of the three dimensions of sustainable development:society, economy and environment. Equally, it is necessary that they should be very clear,robust and statistically viable, be prepared from the best sources of data sources to beharmonized in terms of methodology with international standards, to be comparable withEU Member States and to provide comparability with international standards used by theUnited Nations and OECD. At the same time, these indicators should be able to obtaintimely and easy to be revised to update them. In order to build a system of indicators ofinnovation research has been undertaken on the types and categories of indicators used byRevista Română de Statistică – Supliment Trim IV/2012 179

international organizations (Eurostat, World Bank, UN, OECD, etc..) For comparativestudies and international rankings. Sources of relevant quantitative statistical data collectionabout the innovation process at a university are: reports of activity in research, developmentand innovation (RDI) existing at a university (faculties, departments, research centers), TheEconomic and financial, human resource managers, record the results of RDI, etc.Management of RDI.The downside of deploying an innovation indicators and an analysis based only onquantitative statistics, is not surprised that qualitative aspects of certain phenomena in ourarea of interest, or otherwise can not provide feedback to innovation policies of theuniversity. Therefore, to obtain a system of indicators as complete quantitative data weresupplemented with qualitative information about innovation, obtained through samplesurveys held in the university R & D centers. Research should address four target groups:university faculties, specialized departments, research centers and other entities to R&D orinnovation and technology transfer within the university. Therefore, surveys should beconducted in the target groups to gather information on:a) the involvement of R & D centers in enhancing innovation in the university,development trends and directions in university R & D centers, etc. immediate needs ininnovation.- Exhaustive statistical survey among IDUs in university centers;b) leverage the results of RDI of RDI center in each university- Statistical survey in each RDI centerc) engage each RDI center, faculty management / R & D centers and generalmanagement of the university to support technology transfer (Oneness where applicable) -statistical survey of each center the RDI management and general managementlevel university.To assess the innovative potential and to exploit the short and medium term resultsof RDI projects at universities have conducted an investigation of the leaders / officers ofRDI projects.The conceptual model for analyzing the degree of innovation of a universityComponents, criteria, weighting coefficients and coefficients of importance havebeen established both in the literature and empirical data, from the survey target groups(faculties, departments specialized research centers and other entities of RDI andtechnology transfer within University). Given that innovation is a dynamic process,activities come from the "past" and takes place mainly in the future, in determining thelevel of innovation at universities will follow the trend of innovation within the university,at least in the short .Establishing the degree of innovation (and indirectly the viability) isachieved by interpreting the calculated average score based on innovation components andweighting coefficients obtained by the relationship:Ginov=∑ 51 i=C ciidegree of innovation expressed in terms of innovation components where:G inov - degree of innovationC i - score given i component i=1,5180Revista Română de Statistică – Supliment Trim IV/2012

c i - component associated weighting coefficientni niiij iGinov jCrjCrjj1j1cidegree of innovation of innovation component where:G i inov- degree of innovation associated to i component i=1,5Cr i j – score given j criterion associated with i component i=1,5α j - important factor associated with j criterion∑∑5 niiGinov= βjCrji= 1 j=1degree of innovation expressed according to the criteria of innovationBy applying the computer model, the factors, under-factors and indicators, andtheir weights, have revealed three possible degrees of innovation in the university:If: 0 G inov 83 then the university has a low potential for innovation84 < G inov 165 then the university has a potential innovation environment165 < G inov 248 then the university has a great potential for innovationThe model was applied to all university faculties. The assessment were consideredtechnical and economic information in the levels of 2009 (the reference data). In the studyof analysis and assessment of innovation performance in the university were taken of themain components of innovation:1. potential driving innovation - to quantify the structural conditions necessary toensure innovation potential);2. potential for creating knowledge - to measure investments in human potential asa resource to research and development - a key element of the knowledge economy);3. ability to integrate a relational system - to measure innovation efforts in theuniversity;4. ability to structure activities - to measure performance, expressed in terms ofadded value;5. capability to exploit the intellectual property - to measure the results obtainedthrough the exploitation of knowledge and intangible assets.The conceptual analysis and evaluation of innovation in a university based on asystem of indicators grouped into factors (components) and the criteria of innovation willbe achieved by aggregating the central analysis and assessment of indicators of innovationin the R & D centers indicators developed and developed under Partnerships in priorityareas - project INNOINDEX – Model and computer program for determining the degree ofinnovation of SMEs, adapted and supplemented with other indicators specific academicactivity. The indicators used to audit innovation in university and is harmonized with otherindicators to calculate the degree of innovation, recognized nationally and internationally:- European Innovation Scoreboard (used to evaluate innovation in the EU MemberStates).- Inobarometru 2008 - Innovation in the development regions of Romania.- HG 551/2007 on accreditation/certification RDI units in Romania.- INNOINDEX (PN II Partnership Program) - system of indicators to calculate therate of innovation in SMEs.Indicators of model information are presented below:1. Potential to lead of innovation:Revista Română de Statistică – Supliment Trim IV/2012 181

- Staff involved in technological research and development activities (RTD)- Staff involved in the promotion, marketing, economic forecasting andenvironmental monitoring- Supporting innovation in the faculty- Professional prestige to the faculty2. Knowledge creation potential:- Their funding sources for RTD- Public funding of RTD including European funds- Attracted funding sources for RTD- Ability to attract funding sources3. Innovation and integration in a relational system:- Innovation- Cooperation and collaboration with other entities (universities, INCD's, ITTentities)4. Performance of innovation activities:- Participation in the development of new products / upgraded or new technology /market upgraded- RTD activities- Consulting activities (services)- Promotional activities, marketing and distribution5. Intellectual property- Scientific publications and participation in scientific events, fairs, exhibitions- Economic and technical documentation- Patents- .Models and industrial designs protected- Others (copyright, trademarks)References[1]. Cibu, (Jeflea) Dochiţa, Application performance audit in a public entity providingpublic services, PhD Thesis, University of Valahia Targoviste, 2008.[2]. Gann, D., Dodgson, M., Innovation Technology: How New Technologies AreChanging The Way We Innovate, National Endowment for Science, Technology andthe Arts, London, 2007.[3]. Rânea, C., Badea, C., Dan, Fundamentals of Innovation and Technology Transfer,Electra Publishing House, Bucharest, 2003.[4]. Rothwell, R., Towards the Fifth-generation Innovation Process. InternationalMarketing Review, vol.11, No.1, p.7-31[5]. Zentel, P., Bett, K., Meister, Dorothee M., Rinn, U., Wedekind, J., A Change Processat German University – Innovation through Information and CommunicationTechnologies?, Electronic Journal on e-Learning Volume 2 Issue 1 (February 2004), p.237-246.[6]. *** The manual of performance audit, The Romanian Court of Accounts, Bucharest,2005.[7]. *** Oslo Manual, Guidelines for collectingand interpreting innovation data, Thirdedition, OECD/EUROPEAN COMMUNITIES 2005.[8]. *** Audit report on the performance of public funding on national research andtechnological development of Orizon 2000, The Romanian Court of Accounts,Bucharest, 2000.182Revista Română de Statistică – Supliment Trim IV/2012

Considerations Concerning the Functioning of theKnowledge Markets: the Impact on Competition,Prices and DevelopmentAssociate professor Ph. D. Vadim DUMITRAŞCUvadimdu@yahoo.com„Dimitrie Cantemir“ Christian University - BucharestAbstractMassive application of knowledge in economic activities represents thecornerstone of the New Economy. Knowledge invested in business processes outlines thenucleus of the intellectual capital of both companies and territories. But the quality of theintellectual capital is determined by the knowledge generated by economic processes.Turning knowledge input into knowledge output has its foundation in the particularities ofthe intellectual capital markets.Key words: Knowledge markets, Tacit knowledge, Explicit knowledge, Networks,Network effects.JEL classification: C00,N10, O11.IntroductionKnowledge became a good traded on the specialized markets. Intellectual capitalmarkets are organized under the form of networks. The feature of these networks, moreexactly the network effects they produce and propagate, act like a catalyst of the knowledgeconversion processes into performing intellectual capital. The accumulation of intangiblewealth in a territory appears as a direct consequence of the method of knowledge networkconfiguration, respectively an intellectual capital markets functioning method. Thedynamics of the knowledge networks derives from the self-organizing possibilities. Thesecapacities are given by structural characteristics of the networks. Maximizing the capital ofthe networks is the main access method to a performing intellectual capital (Sstehr, 2002;Thurow, 2000).At present, economic activity may incorporate the following four types ofknowledge: to know-what, to know-why, to know-how and to know-who (Lundvall, 1999;Foray, 2004). As far as the know-what knowledge is concerned, it is easy to notice that thiscategory identifies with information, as it can be segmented and represented withoutproblems with the help of bits. Knowing what refers then to knowledge about facts.Knowing why is a type of knowledge extremely important to the technologicaldevelopment in a growing number of economic areas. The production and re-production ofthis type of knowledge is made in specialized organizations, like, for instance, theuniversities. To know why refers to the scientific knowledge of the cause-effect relationshipand of the laws of development and manifestation of the nature, mind and human behavior,as well as of the society. To know how is connected to the creation and development ofskills and attitudes characteristic to people, referring to the capacities and to the abilities ofthe individuals who act and interact in the context of the economic activity in order torealize certain things. This category includes a vast assembly of characteristics people own,competencies and skills up to all types of specific skills or talents. To know who refers to atype of knowledge that becomes more and more relevant and is based on a combination ofRevista Română de Statistică – Supliment Trim IV/2012 183

elational abilities that define the individuals, groups of individuals and organizations socialaction and interaction capacity. In the context of the economy based on knowledge itbecomes more and more obvious the necessity of accessing a very heterogeneous range ofknowledge, specialized that often has a dispersed character. To know who directly refers tothe capacity of creating knowledge networks or to connect to such networks. Knowledge ofthis type ensures the interaction between the first three categories of knowledge.These four types of knowledge can be accessed through different channels. If toknow what and to know why are accessible with the help of books or data bases, the othertwo types of knowledge are basically obtained through practical experience. To know howis obtained especially with the help of learning and professional development. “To knowwho” is obtained along the social practice of the profession in the context of specializededucational environments.A defining characteristic of these types of knowledge is the fact that, while toknow what and to know why are easy to reproduce, respectively to transform intoinformation, to know how and to know who has major difficulties in this direction. Thistrait – reproduction difficulty – allows an extremely interesting and useful grouping of theknowledge creation and development methods. The distinction between explicit, observableand able to be coded knowledge and the tacit or implicit knowledge production isconsidered (Poanyi, 1978). Explicit knowledge, observable and able to be coded is thatwhich may be expressed in a formal and organized language, so that it facilitates itsprocessing, transmission and storage. In exchange, the production of tacit or implicitknowledge is tightly associated to the human factor and incorporates technical,psychological and cognitive elements, like the difficult to particularize practical experience,abilities or qualifications.Knowledge as an economic goodLately, the TIC technologies allowed massive incorporation of knowledge ineconomic activity. This substantial growth of the presence of knowledge in economicactivity is mainly manifested in the following two ways. The first considers intensifying theuse of explicit knowledge in economic activity. The spectacular improvement of the accessand management ways of the information and knowledge flow allowed a significantrelaxation of the barriers in spreading and productive use of explicit knowledge. Thesecond one considers turning the tacit knowledge into explicit knowledge, as well as thechanges turned up in the professional and formative exigencies regarding the humanresources profile. The intensive application of the TIC technologies generated the followingnotable consequences: a) increase of the explicit knowledge economic incorporationdegree; b) transformation of the tacit knowledge into explicit knowledge and c) thedevelopment of new capacities and competences of the work force.Knowledge not only turned into a key resource but also became a merchandisetraded on the specialized markets. The markets for knowledge resources or intellectualcapital markets are organized under the form of interconnected networks („networks ofnetworks“), but which dispute competing intellectual products. The functioning method ofthese markets is highly affected by the network effects. The intellectual products have themain characteristics of public goods generating significant externalities. In its quality as anobject of the exchange traded through the markets, knowledge has particular characteristics.A clear distinction is required between the economic properties of the explicit knowledge,derived from the creation and application of to know what and to know why, on one hand,and the properties of the tacit knowledge, derived from the production and economic use ofto know how and to know who on the other hand.184Revista Română de Statistică – Supliment Trim IV/2012

The main economic characteristics of the explicit knowledge (formed of to knowwhat and to know why) are the following (Shy, 2001): Represents informational goods, meaning that they can be digitized orcoded; Their production is very expensive, but their re-production is very cheap; Has high fixed cost, but the variable cost has a tendency of continuousdecrease while production extends, generating increasing profit; There are non-rival goods, supposing that this knowledge may be used,simultaneously or consecutively, by more consumers, without losing itsusefulness; Price determination base isn’t limited to costs only, it also includesvalorizing this knowledge of the users; The presence of the increasing profit gives odds to differentiating andloyalty building strategies; They are at the same time experience goods, meaning that its usefulnessis revealed only during the consumption process; From the explicit knowledge building company perspective, whileproduction experience accumulates, the average production costdecreases; The decreasing marginal use generated by facilitating access to thisknowledge leads to the saturation of the user; Important exit barriers, materialized in the fact that this type ofknowledge users’ technological dependency induces highly raised reorientingcosts (lock-in); The progressive growth of the explicit knowledge use for the consumersalong with the increase of their number (network effects).The main economic characteristics of the tacit knowledge (formed of to know howand to know who) can be resumed as follows: does not have informational goods due to reproduction difficulty; much more reduced trading possibilities, preponderant in the so-calledinternal markets; both production and reproduction of this type of knowledge areexpensive; has both fix and variable increased costs, fact that only allows obtainingmoderate increase profit; they are non-rival goods; they are experience goods; low consumption saturation due to the demand in excess for this type ofknowledge, having specific implications on price establishment; increased marginal use; tacit knowledge transfer difficulties from one sector to another orexchange difficulties with other tacit knowledge minimizing the exitbarriers; important input barriers due to difficult expert knowledge acquiring; the use of tacit knowledge generates important network effects not onlyas a result of increasing the number of users, but especially due to theintrinsic characteristics of this knowledge.Revista Română de Statistică – Supliment Trim IV/2012 185

Functioning of the knowlwdge marketsThe fundament difference between explicit knowledge and tacit knowledge isgiven by the form of the demand function. This difference is determined by the type ofnetwork effects generated by each of these knowledge categories (Shapiro and Varian,1999). Network effects refer to usefulness growth felt by a user of the knowledge as aneffect of the increase of the number of total users employing that knowledge. There arethree types of network effects: direct network effects, materialized in the increase of the value ofknowledge for a user as the whole network of users extends; indirect network effects that may be observed in the decrease of the cost(scale savings), offer diversification (complementary products appear)and improvement of the access and use conditions;network effects due to learning materialized in the development andconsolidation of some expert type specific competences.Explicit knowledge is sustained by direct and indirect network effects, while tacitknowledge, more difficult to code, is based on network effects due to learning. Explicitknowledge markets may create value starting from the opportunities offered by the newusers incoming and by continuous expanding the network. Building value on the tacitknowledge markets is based on the increased intrinsic value of this knowledge. Thedissociation shown generates two absolutely different strategies of the business. In case ofexplicit knowledge, specific network effects determine a strategy oriented towardsincorporating an as large as possible number of users in the network. In case of tacitknowledge, specific network effects determine a strategy based on the increase of thenetwork value through maximization of the value of the intrinsic knowledge.We must mention that, unlike the traditional form, under the influence of thenetwork effects the curb of knowledge demand (technologies, services, and products) has aconcave form (reversed U). The rate of this curve is determined by the intrinsic value (thevalue of the knowledge itself, given by the capacity of solving a problem), the marginalvalue (the value provided to the other members of the network by the adherence of a newuser) and the relative dimension of the knowledge specific network which makes the objectof the transaction. Explicit knowledge is characterized by a relatively low intrinsic value,but it has an increased marginal value and a relatively high dimension of the networks, thatusually registers a very fast growth, but also an accelerated extinction after reaching amaximum point. Tacit knowledge is characterized, in exchange, by an increased intrinsicvalue, but having a low marginal value and a relatively small dimension of the networks,registering less accentuated growth, but also slower compressing rate after reaching a peak(maximal dimension of the network).Another important difference can be found in the fact that, in general, the curve ofan intellectual product or service adoption and/or buying depends, in presence of thenetwork effects, on a certain critical mass of users (Goolsbee, 2002). The critical massrepresents that minimal dimension of the network from which the network becomesattractive, in economic terms, for the potential users, meaning it starts having increasingpositive profit. Reaching critical mass determines the activation of positive feed-backsgenerating an exponential rapid growth, of the number of users, of their networkrespectively. Delay in reaching the critical mass leads to fast removal of the product orservice and to the extinction of its network. This is the law the competition between theknowledge standards in the intellectual capital markets is based on.186Revista Română de Statistică – Supliment Trim IV/2012

What are the factors conditioning the competitive success of a knowledgestandard? They are: price level, evaluation of success chances of potential users(expectations regarding success) of the knowledge standard and the existence of marketsfor complementary products/services. Their control resides in providing the followingstrategic actives: solid reputation and strong marks; an already formed client base; thecapacity of offering a valuable product (this capacity results either from the ability ofidentifying clients’ necessities, or from the ability of innovating, or from the ability ofselling); holding the intellectual property and the capacity of managing legal restrictions;the ability of acting fast; client-specific lock-ins management ability (retirement of oldproducts and reorientation to new ones costs) and the ability of establishing strategicalliances with partners having the missing competences. The above mentioned actives areintangible and only their development may ensure a fast expansion of the new knowledgestandard, a significant market share included. The company strategies on the intellectualcapital markets (characterized by network effects) are oriented, no matter their concretecontents and the pressures that forced their formulation, towards a fast reaching of thecritical mass from which the exponential growth process is triggered, the development ofthe network and fast „occupation“ of the markets by substituting the old knowledgestandards and elimination or marginalization of the competing standards (Kauffman,2000).4. The impact of the knowledge markets on developmentWe consider that the intensity and efficiency of the intangible capital accumulationby a territory – a country, a region or a community – depend on the particularities of theintellectual capital markets structuring and functioning that characterize the respectiveterritory. More exactly, the volume and quality of the intangible capital are influenced bythe method used for the intellectual capital markets in a certain territory, in the specificmanner of organizing business having as object different intellectual resources, to succeednot only to ensure the intense and massive use of knowledge as economic input, but also toturn it into economic output, not only the consumption or productive use of knowledge, butalso the production, creation of knowledge. The characteristics and the dynamics of theintellectual capital markets decide if a territory is a technological progress taker or atechnological progress maker (Antonelli et. al, 2000 ).The capacity of the intellectual capital markets of transforming a territory areconditioned by the network characteristics or by the type of predominantly generatednetwork effects. Each time direct and indirect network effects shall manifest by choice onthe markets, the learning effects being weak, we shall deal with an entity oriented towardsknowledge economic consumption, taken especially from others. But where markets alsogenerates significant learning effects, beside intensive application of knowledge ineconomic processes, there shall also be a substantial output under the form of knowledge.The learning effects and tacit knowledge as their manifestation represents the motor of theknowledge production. The efficiency of the intellectual capital markets is determined bythe intensity of the tacit knowledge transformation into explicit knowledge, respectively inknowledge standards.The proportion between the knowledge allocated to the economic activity and theknowledge free from economic activity is essential as it determines the rhythm and qualityof the intangible capital accumulation. The innovation capacity is the factor that separatesthe leaders from outsiders. The innovation processes are the interface between tacitknowledge and explicit knowledge, and innovation itself results from learning effects:using what was learned by applying the knowledge assigned to economic processes, basedRevista Română de Statistică – Supliment Trim IV/2012 187

on the creativity theory and on the accumulated experience, a new knowledge is generated.This new knowledge shall feed further economic cycles, generating supplementary profitand increase the stock of intellectual capital.5.ConclusionsWe saw that the intangible wealth is a macroeconomic characteristic, but withmultiple microeconomic determinants, situated at the level of the intellectual capitalmarkets. The size of this wealth depends not only by the volume of knowledge absorbed bythe social and economic processes, but also by the new knowledge, generated by and reinvestedin the above mentioned processes. In this context, maximizing the learning effectscompared to direct and indirect network effects associated to intellectual capital markets isa fundamental condition. What are the main microeconomic levers for stimulating theconsistency of the intangible national wealth? They refer to massive attraction ofknowledge as economic input and to sustaining knowledge production processes aseconomic output, being summarized as follows:1) multiplication of knowledge communities;2) efficient control of the intellectual property;3) support of the development of the strategic intangible actives;4) keeping inside the borders the local intelligence;5) encouraging the innovational processes;6) expansion and diversification of the TIC applications.Their distinctive feature is the fact that, ensuring a consistent input of knowledgeas an economic resource, they multiply at the same time the learning effects, feed theknowledge input like economic output, improving the knowledge networks specific capital.References[1]. Antonelli C., Geuna A. and Steinmueller F. (2000), „Information and CommunicationTechnologies and the Production, Distribution and Use of Knowledge“, InternationalJournal of Techology Management, vol. 20, n o 1-2, pp. 72-94.[2]. Foray D. (2004), The Economics of Knowledge, MIT Press.[3]. Goolsbee A. (2002), „Evidence on Learning and Network Externalities in theDiffusion of Home Computers“, Journal of Law and Economics, vol. 45, n o 2, pp.317-343.[4]. Kauffman R. J. (2000), „Opening the Black Box of Network Externalities and NetworkAdoption“, Information Systems Research, vol. 11, n o 1, pp. 61-82.[5]. Lundvall B.-A. (1999), „The Learning Economy“, Journal of Industry Studies, vol. 1,n o 2, p. 30.[6]. Polanyi M. (1978), Personal Knowledge, London, Routledge.[7]. Shapiro C. and Varian H. R. (1999), Information Rules. A Strategic Guide to theNetwork Economy, Boston, Harvard Business School Press.[8]. Shy O. (2001), The Economics of Network Industries, Cambridge Massachusetts,Cambridge University Press.[9]. Stehr N. (2002), Knowledge and Economic Conduct. The Social Foundations of theModern Economy, Toronto, Toronto University Press.[10]. Thurow L. (2000), Construir riqueza. Las nuevas reglas para individuos, empresasy naciones en una economia basada en el conocimiento, Buenos Aires, EdicionJavier Vegara.188Revista Română de Statistică – Supliment Trim IV/2012

Medical Staff Motivation - Essential Condition forObtaining a High Level of Performance in Hospitalsin RomaniaAdriana ZANFIR PhD StudentThe Bucharest Academy of Economic Studieszanfir.adriana@gmail.comAbstractDevelopment of the health sector, superior performance achievement for unitsproviding medical services and health services improvment have been the main objectivesof health reform in the last two decades. In addition to economic and financial issues, thehuman resources policies have been studied in an attempt to solve some of the deficienciesin this system. All changes resulting from healthcare reforms and legislative changes hadsome negative influences on the volume and working conditions in the hospital sector. ThusRomania has become the leading exporter of medical personnel in the European market. Inthis context, rural areas are the most affected ones and many hospitals remained withoutcoverage in certain specialties. Therefore we believe that in order to improve the quality ofhealth services it is essential to identify the motivational elements that can overcome theobstacles imposed by the system.Key words: healthcare system, human resources management, medical staff,labor migration, motivational factors.JEL Classification: I12, I15IntroductionAs public services with particular relevance to population, the health services wereone of the most debated topics both on national and international level. For Romania, thelast twenty years have been characterized by a series of reforms and legislative changes thathave influenced the conduct of business of healthcare. Transition from highly centralizedhealth system to a system based on mandatory health insurance has been the most importantchange so far. The reform has brought many benefits for all the health system actors(increased concerns for efficiency and effectiveness), but has also brought a series ofdisadvantages, such as increased imbalances, that negatively influenced the population’shealth. The amount of deficiencies the Romanian health system is currently facing has hadan impact on the health care quality.In addition to the eternal problem of underfunding, recent years have broughtchanges on volume and working conditions, elements that have contributed significantly toincreased migration. Schedule load of administrative work, underdeveloped infrastructure,the depreciation of medical profession, the lack of financial and psycho-social motivationalfactors are just some elements that made Romania the main labor force exporter in theEuropean Area. Personnel deficit in the health sector became increasingly pronounced,especially since Romania's accession to the European Union enabled the liberalization oflabor. The possibility to work in countries with developed health care systems, correlatedRevista Română de Statistică – Supliment Trim IV/2012 189

with a remuneration lower the European Union average, resulted in the massive migrationof health professionals.This way, Romania lost a significant number of highly qualified medical staff andphysicians, aged between 30-50, which means personnel with extensive experience. Theproblem of human resources in the health system has been approached also by thePresidential Commission for the Analysis and Development of Public Health Policy(P.C.A.D.P.H.P) in Romania. Within the report it is clearly indicated that „Romania faces amajor imbalance in terms of planning, training and human resources management in health,having the lowest personal number reported to the population from the European Union, foralmost all categories of medical staff”. 1The report highlights that due to the deficiencies and poor quality of services, ourcountry loses an impressive number of people annually. The decrease of this indicator canbe achieved by applying some adequate human resources policies, in economic and socialcontext. Most analysts of the health system believe that „people are the key to the system”but „there is no clearly formulated policy of human resources, that creates problems withmotivation and retention of medical staff, leading ultimately to severe imbalances”. 2As far as we are facing a quite pronounced deficit of human resources in someareas it will be difficult to reach significant improvements in hospitals activity. Accordingto some authors, „the activity focus on the work volume, on hours worked, on quantity assuch, actually entails decrease of quality and associated elements”. 3The depreciation of health services quality is forbidden in a developing country,which should ensure good health for all people. The role of the health system is to maintainthe health of society at a high level to ensure proper functioning of all activities.Membership status of European Union requires Romania's compliance to some standardsand international recommendations related to efficiency increase of health units andimprove quality services provided to patients. Through developed programs, the EuropeanUnion closely controls the patients' rights and the way the healthcare services are renderedto the citizens from community area. In this context there is a change in vision of theMinistry of Public Health that, through the Strategic Plan for 2008-2010, aimed at„improving population health and achieving of a modern and efficient health care system,compatible with the European Union systems, for the citizens’ permanent care”. One of theobjectives in this period was „ the life quality increase by improving the quality and safetyof medical care”. 4 Such objectives are pursued further through programs and plans toreform the system, becoming strategic objectives for the Ministry of Health and the rest ofthe bodies involved in health insurance.To achieve these objectives the way we approach the human resourcesmanagement from system is essential. Hospitals - key units of the health system - shouldbe prioritized in the process of solving the issues regarding personnel deficit.1 Presidential Commission for the Analysis and Development of Public Health Policy in Romania -The report "A health system focused on the needs of citizens", Bucharest, 2008, p. 52.2 Suciu, M.C.; Stan, C.A.; Pcioruş, L.; Imbrişcă, C.I. 2012. Health system post-crisis: the economiccrisis in Romania, In: The Theoretical and Applied Economics, Volume XIX, No. 5 (570), p. 133.3 Kanellopoulos, D. 2012. Impact of economic crisis on human resources development in the greekhealth system, In: The Theoretical and Applied Economics, Volume XIX, No. 7 (572), p. 50.4 www.ms.ro190Revista Română de Statistică – Supliment Trim IV/2012

The importance of human resources in health care systemThe performances of the health organizations depend on the way human resourcesare used to perform the activities necessary to achieve the established objectives. Today, thehealthcare sector in Romania is in the process of development and adaptation to EUrequirements. The assumption that human resource is the key to building a stronghealthcare system and prepared to meet the new requirements is supported even by thecurrent system critics of. Basically, the management and use of the other resources dependon people in the system and on their level of training.The importance of human resources can not be challenged in an area with uniquecharacteristics such as the medical one. In addition to the specific features, this isunderlined also by the high costs involved. Therefore, human resource management beganto be viewed (especially in recent years, when quality has become a core value of thesystem) as „a crucial element t to the success of healthcare organizations and of the wholehealth care system”. 5 According to some authors, the human resources management aims at„ensuring a sufficient staff with certain skills and adequate training for an effective andefficient use of resources”. 6Unfortunately, from now on, Romania has a long way to achieve this goal.Regarding the human resource management, we have seen some weaknesses that must becorrected as soon as possible to achieve improved quality of service: high level of responsibilities avoidance, meaning that lack a strongculture built on the principles of professional ethics. Health professionalsmust be able to admit their mistakes and must be able to be responsiblefor the injuries caused to the patient. Also, the nature of business requiresthe doctor to maintain a permanent relation with the patient throughoutthe going on treatment. lack of a specific monitoring program to the professionals activity,meaning that it is difficult to carefully supervise the daily tasksrealisation. limited number of medical professionals. Number of medical staffreported to population is the lowest in the European Union. Even thoughin 2012 the Ministry of Health unblocked an important number ofvacancies in the health system, we are still deficient in this respect.lack of a coherent program of maintaining the specialists in the country.imbalance between staffing needs and the number of graduates. Even if inthe whole country, it is necessary to employ a large number of healthprofessionals, graduates can hardly handle the desired positions.human resource planning is not realised on the real need for labor.inefficient use of available resources, which affects employeeproductivity and efficiencyinsufficient training of medical staff. Although we have medical staffhighly trained in certain specialties however there can be noticed the needof continuous improvement programs, especially that the medicine rate ofgrowth is extremely fast. Computer technology can be barely used by thepersonnel.5 National School of Public Health and Health Management. 2006, Hospital Management - CoursesSupport, Bucharest: Public H Press Publishing House, p. 157.6 Ursoiu, S. 2000. Health Management, Timişoara: Editura de Vest, p. 101.Revista Română de Statistică – Supliment Trim IV/2012 191

absence of motivational factors. In the entire health care system wenoticed the lack of a clear worded motivational policy going to lead to theplanned objectives. Because of financial conditions in some medicalunits, doctors have to face even the impossibility to implement all theknowledge acquired.The exercise of human resource management activities (planning, organization,management, training and human resource development, staff motivation, performanceevaluation) is essential for improving the hospital performance indicators. Although allfunctions are of major importance in the process of management, the staff motivationfunction requires special attention.Demotivation of doctors and medium staff is directly reflected in the quality ofcare that reaches the consumer. Therefore, the quality of health services is generallyevaluated subjectively by patients, and the most important aspect is the quality of carereceived in hospital.The quality of health services is determined by the suppliers’ motivation. Someauthors emphasize that „the dissatisfied and overworked staff is not able to provide thecustomers care or support that they need”. 7From the analysts’ point of view „health professionals play an important role indetermining the extent and nature of training, in establishing a framework for continouslearning, in monitoring practice of clinical quality and enforcement of ethical standards”. 8So, the effects caused by the lack of motivation of practitioners and support staff can beeasier anticipated.The plans to reform the health system had as fundamental objectives the followingones: increased efficiency in the provision of health services, increasing accessibility tohealth services, improved quality of care and performance indicators of hospitals,settlement of the services based on performance, etc. These goals may be achieved onlyusing the methods and techniques for human resource management that bring more medicalstaff motivation. The researches in this area have shown that improvement of the healthsystem performance can be achieved by promoting a „new and progressive” humanresources management. In this context, encouraging teamwork can be an importantmotivator, especially since individual activities do no longer exist in medical area. Qualitymanagement specialists believe that „the effectiveness of a team has a huge impact on thesuccess of any initiative to improve something”. 9It is important that the performance of health units should be evaluated based onthe analysis of human resources indicators (Figure 1).Very important are the inputs of human resource that must be made in accordancewith the needs of the health system and the resources available at the time of analysis.Current economic climate does not allow large inserts of personnel in the health sector.Therefore, focus on how we can motivate the current resources is the key to improvinghealth care quality. Hospital management has at least the moral responsibility to create afavourable work environment for such sensitive activities to be carried on.7 Plumb, I.; Androniceanu, A.; Abăluţă, O. 2003. Managementul serviciilor publice, Ediţia a II-a,Bucureşti: cursuri în format digital;8 Vlădescu, C.; Buşoi, C. 2011. Health policy in the European Union, Bucharest: Polirom PublishingHouse, p. 101.9 Vanormelingen, K.; Butu, C. (et al.) 2000. Quality management. Continuous quality improvement ofhealth services, Bucharest: Institute of Health Services Management, p. 89.192Revista Română de Statistică – Supliment Trim IV/2012

Figure 1: Health care units performance through indicators of human resources 10ConclusionsHuman resources in health are the key process to improve the quality of healthservices. Performance of health service unit depends decisively on the motivation of humanresources. Any form of motivation should be considered a long term investment that willbring multiple benefits to patients and health units. Health system deficiencies are obstaclesdifficult to overcome, but the work in hospitals can not be conducted without the full staff’sinvolvement. Romania is currently facing strong regional imbalances in terms of health carecoverage. Without the application of coherent measures to maintain health professionals inthe country, these imbalances will grow more. After five years of EU membership, thenumber of doctors and nurses has considerably decreased. At the same time the number ofadmissions was growing and, as for this indicator, Romania was the first among themember countries. Thus, the coherent fulfillment of the motivational function of the actualhuman resources will become a mandatory requirement for the system strengthening sothat it could meet f the population’s demands.AcknowledgmentsThis work was co-financed from the European Social Fund through Sectorial OperationalProgramme Human Resources Development 2007-2013, project numberPOSDRU/107/1.5/S/77213 „PhD for a career in interdisciplinary economic research atEuropean standards”.References:[1]. Kanellopoulos, D. 2012. Impact of economic crisis on human resources developmentin the greek health system, In: The Theoretical and Applied Economics, VolumeXIX, no. 7 (572);[2]. Plumb, I.; Androniceanu, A.; Abăluţă, O. 2003. Public Services Management, SecondEdition, Bucharest: courses in digital form;10 National School of Public Health and Health Management. 2006, Hospital Management - CoursesSupport, Bucharest: Public H Press Publishing House, p. 159.Revista Română de Statistică – Supliment Trim IV/2012 193

[3]. Suciu, M.C.; Stan, C.A.; Pcioruş, L.; Imbrişcă, C.I. 2012. Health system post-crisis: theeconomic crisis in Romania, In: The Theoretical and Applied Economics, VolumeXIX, No. 5 (570);[4]. Ursoiu, S. 2000. Health Management, Timişoara: Editura de Vest;[5]. Vanormelingen, K.; Butu, C. (et al.) 2000. Quality management. Continuous qualityimprovement of health services, Bucharest: Institute of Health Services Management;[6]. Vlădescu, C.; Buşoi, C. 2011. Health policy in the European Union, Bucharest:Polirom Publishing House;[7]. *** Presidential Commission for the Analysis and Development of Public HealthPolicy in Romania (P.C.A.D.P.H.P.R.), 2008. The report "A health system focused onthe needs of citizens".[8]. *** National School of Public Health and Health Management. 2006, HospitalManagement - Courses Support, Bucharest: Public H Press Publishing House.194Revista Română de Statistică – Supliment Trim IV/2012

Determining Factors of Persistent Recession inDeveloped EconomiesUniv. Reader Alexandru BURDA, PhD“Dimitrie Cantemir” Christian UniversityFaculty of Tourism and Commercial Managementalex.burda@gmail.comUniv. Reader Sebastian CHIRIMBU, PhD“Spiru Haret” Universitysebastian_chirimbu@yahoo.comAbstractDespite the apparent recovery, the economies of developed countries seem to enteragain in recession. The most important signs of this possibility are the precarious state ofthe labor market, consumer skepticism and lack of confidence and a global debt crisis bywhich the national governments seem overcome. An additional worsening of the situationin any of these problem areas and in other, strongly connected areas, would be enough totrigger a new global economic crunch.Key words: Recession, consumption, unemployment, debts, taxation, crisis,consumer.JEL Classification: G01IntroductionThe economic recession can be described in general terms as a period of time inwhich the economy of a country or region slows down its growth or enters a phase ofdecrease. It is generally characterized by a drop in the people’s consumption, a drop inindustrial production, increasing unemployment, drop in the people’s individual incomeand an unhealthy stock exchange market. These factors are interconnected in a cycle thatmust last at least for 6 months in order for the period of economic slowdown to beconsidered recession.The economic recession, when it occurs, can be monitored by analyzing therespective factors and analyzing their interconnection. The economic and financial crisisthat currently affects the Western developed economies is apparently drawing to a situationin which after an initial period of recession, the economy enters a stage of temporaryrecovery and then falls back into recession (Investopedia, 2012).Generally speaking, the probability reentering and mentaining in a recession isindicated by the drop in the consumption of goods and services as a result of the growingunemployment and spending cuts from the first stage of the recession. These general factorsare doubled by others that are less conspicuous yet equally important due to the causeeffectinterconnections among them.Practically, the fact that the current crisis facing the developed economies todayseems to evolve on such a path is indicated by the situation and specific development ofunemployment, the consumption levels for physical and legal bodies, taxation, certainsectors of the economy and/or of the markets for certain categories of goods, etc. Theirdevelopment can vary from one country to the next, but in whole, we can use them toRevista Română de Statistică – Supliment Trim IV/2012 195

assess somewhat precisely the tendency in which the crisis-stricken developed economiesas a whole may evolve.1. Situation and development of the main economic factorsDespite the fact that some specialists in the field believe that the likelihood of thedeveloped economies to fall back into recession is not necessarily very high, if such aprospect becomes real, it will have grievous consequences for them. These economies, ifthey cannot cope, risk crumbling rapidly, while their prospects for recovery are verydifficult to anticipate. For investors, a comeback of the recession would be tantamount to acomeback to the situation in 2008, which was characterized by plummeting profitability ofthe shares. And the exchange market indicators showed such a possibility as early as end2010 (Roos, 2012).In July 2011, the economic figures showed that the US economy was entering anew recession. If we factor in the situation of the European countries (where Greece ispractically bankrupt), we can consider that the current crises of the developed economies isvery close to acquiring the characteristics of a W-type economic cycle. This developmentseems to be confirmed by the way in which properties values and real estate values evolve,but mostly by unemployment, which remains persistent and with reserved prospects ofalleviation, even if its drop in real terms these last 5 months has exceeded expectations. Theimminence of a new recession becomes evident if we analyze the situation anddevelopment of several economic indicators such as inflation, unemployment, taxation andconsumption levels.1.1 InflationInflation, especially through the rapid growth of prices on consumer goods, is oneof the factors with the highest impact on consumer confidence. In general, the consumers incrisis-stricken economies have already experienced a relatively significant decrease of theirpurchase power for both non-food and food staple goods (McIntyre, Ten Signs the Double-Dip Recession Has Begun, 2011). The price on cotton has increased by 20%, the price oncoffee by 17%, on clothes by up to 20%, and in general, the consumers in developedcountries pay more for sugar, meat, flour, etc. (McIntyre, Ten Signs the Double-DipRecession Has Begun, 2011). In time, this phenomenon can affect the purchase of goodsand services that are meant to meet higher needs.1.2 UnemploymentUnemployment is one of the most serious problems caused by the global crisiswhich started in 2007 and is one of the main hurdles to sustainable growth for theconcerned economies. Despite the fact that jobs have been created these last few years andthe effect of temporary jobs is relatively less important, as a whole, the process of creatingnew jobs is too slow to allow durable and sustainable economic growth (Baden &Silverblatt, 2010).In the short run, unemployment causes two major problems (McIntyre, Ten Signsthe Double-Dip Recession Has Begun, 2011). The first refers to (a) the consumptionspendings of the people affected by unemployment, while the second (b) refers to the levelof the necessary expenditures for helping the unemployed. The drop in the unemployedpeople’s consumption spendings (a) seriously impacts the activity of consumer goodsproducers and suppliers and implicitly causes a drop in the GDP. The unemploymentbenefits (b) trigger an increase in the budget deficit; therefore, governments have to cutother expenditures, which in a kind of spinning effect additional impact the consumption ofthe employed and the activity of the companies. Thus, implicitly, this contributes to an evenfurther increase in unemployment.196Revista Română de Statistică – Supliment Trim IV/2012

Unemployment causes medium and long-term problems as well (Baden &Silverblatt, 2010). They include notably (1) a fall in the younger generation’s consumptionpower, and (2) an increase in the financial and economic difficulties of larger families andlocal communities. The fall in the young people’s consumption power (1) is the indirectresult of aggravating unemployment and is also caused by an ageing population correlatedto the economic situation of physical bodies. People over-60 years of age have to work alonger period of time following the drop in the value of their real estate, which was thebasis of their income after retirement. Therefore, these people occupy relatively well-paidjobs that younger people could have had. In their turn, the young people have to acceptlower wages if they want to enter the labor market, which affects their consumption powerthat reaches a normal maximum much later, long after they turn 30. This will have anegative impact on the GDP in developed countries for the next decade.The increase of financial difficulties for families and community (4) is an evenmore serious problem triggered by unemployment. It is caused by the fact that once theperiod for receiving unemployment benefits ends, the respective people practically startliving on the expenses of their family members, their friends and the community theybelong to, and sometime of NGOs. A family that must support an unemployed membercannot afford other expenditures but those for their basic needs (the prices of which isrising). Moreover, there can also be an increase in the state expenditures for the programsmeant to help these people. In the current situation, the number of unemployed people whohave reached their unemployment benefits time limit is high both on the US and EUmarkets.The first reports of early 2012 about the US market show an increase in the laboroccupancy and a drop in unemployment from 8.5% to 8.3%; this development hasexceeded expectations. Nevertheless, the US market would need the labor occupancy toincrease by 6 mil jobs in order for the labor market to return to the 2008 situation.1.3 TaxationGrowing taxation on the US market was imminent (Baden & Silverblatt, 2010)considering that some tax reduction programs have expired in end 2011. Estimates showthat if taxes rise by 1% of the GDP it would lead to a 3% drop of the GDP, while taxes areexpected to actually rise by 2%. This would mean a drop in the US GDP by 6% than itsexpected value, which will be an important trigger for the country to fall back intorecession. In the EU Member States that are already affected by the sovereign debt situationand forced to take tough austerity measures, increasing taxation is already in full swing,even if in some cases it has meant only an increase of the VAT.1.4 ConsumptionThe consumption level is directly influenced by the consumers’ confidence in thedevelopment of the market in general and of the labor one in particular. The currenttendency on the crisis-stricken markets is an increasing propensity for saving rather thanspending. Yet, the comeback to a favorable development in this area does not appearprobable considering the way the labor market is developing and the fact that generalpessimism remains dominant. Moreover, there is a feeling of mistrusts among employers aswell, who are not tempted by major development investments either (Baden & Silverblatt,2010).2. Situation and development of other economic factorsThe four factors that we have analyzed so far are closely connected to the state andevolution of (1) consumer confidence, and (2) budget deficits of the countries experiencingRevista Română de Statistică – Supliment Trim IV/2012 197

the crisis. Moreover, (3) the access to credits for physical and legal bodies as well as (4)spending cuts of governments and companies are also important.2.1 Consumer ConfidenceAccording to recent studies (Baden & Silverblatt, 2010), consumer confidence isdropping. This phenomenon is connected to the consumers’ worsening perception about theprospects for their personal and professional life (especially for a job). Both phenomena canbe factors that could negatively impact the recovery of crisis-stricken economies, yet thiswould not necessarily mean a fall back into recession. It can rather mean a “wait and see”attitude of the consumers towards the way the labor market may evolve. Moreover,consumer confidence is not easily assessed. O series of research studies (ConsumerConfidence Survey®, 2012) shows that consumer confidence is actually high, higher thanin January 2008.2.2 Budget DeficitsThe fact that budget deficits are high and very high both in the EU and the USmakes it impossible for stimulus financial packages to be granted or investments to bemade, which are essential solutions for a complete recovery of the economies that arecurrently in recession. Moreover, the deficit triggered tough austerity measures both in theUS and the EU Member States, especially in the Euro-zone. The effects of these measureswere felt in the level of consumption, the decrease of which has additionally impacted thecrisis-stricken economies, as well as the unemployment level, which subsequently rose(McIntyre, Ten Signs the Double-Dip Recession Has Begun, 2011). Furthermore, thegeneral distrust with the way in which the Euro-zone economies evolve can be one of themost important triggers of a new recession and a W-type economic cycle.2.3 Physical and Legal Bodies’ Access to CreditsThe very limited access to credits seriously impacts the economic activity of smalland medium-sized companies and people consumption. The larger companies are less hitdue to a higher volume of liquidities and better business balance. On the other hand, banksare more reluctant to give loans to companies with less than 100 employees because theyhave a narrower client pool and therefore lower profits and a lower cash flow (McIntyre,Ten Signs the Double-Dip Recession Has Begun, 2011), although they are the main driveof these economies. For the time being, there is no concrete policy to remedy this situation.Physical bodies find themselves in the same situation as the small and mediumsized companies. The associated costs of credit cards exceed 20% even in the US, wherethe Federal Reserve gives loans to the big financial institutions with an almost 0% interestrate. The buyers on the real estate market are also asked interest rates of over 20%, whichhinders the recovery of this sector. Moreover, the private owners of real estate they boughton credit cannot sell it and have to limit their consumption to the mere basic needs of goodsand services.2.4 Governments and Companies’ Spending CutsThe spending cuts of both governments and companies were mainly meant todecrease the countries’ budget deficits. Although is a generally appropriate measure, it canprove unfortunate in the current state of the world economy. Many European countries,especially Spain and Greece, are in full process of implementing severe austerity programsthat combine expenditure cuts with tax increase. In the US, on the other hand, the situationis unclear, dangling between austerity measures or maintaining a deficit that would allowthe government to stimulate the economy. On the whole, the governments of the developedcountries are caught between the option of cutting spending in order to reduce their hugebudget deficits at the expense of the economic growth and the option of stimulating theeconomy in an effort to help it recover. The problem thereof is how long these governments198Revista Română de Statistică – Supliment Trim IV/2012

can afford to wait before taking action. The danger is that amid a very fragile economicrecovery, the result of the waiting would be not only a falling deficit, but also a fallingbudget by at least 1% (Baden & Silverblatt, 2010), which is quite a high percentage giventhat the economic growth rate is even less than that.ConclusionsThe current situation of the developed economies represents a new state ofrecession, marching towards of a “liquidity trap’: a recession in which the credit interestrates do drop at nearly 0%, yet this does not stimulate the economy. Theoretically speaking,such a decrease of the interest rate should encourage consumers and companies to ask forloans and consume. Nevertheless, if too many of them are concerned with saving moneyand paying back their outstanding loans, the low interest rates have little effect on theinvestment and consumption behavior.One of the remedies for a “liquidity trap” is to provide cash by issuing money orby other means in order to increase quantitatively the acquisition of goods, which leads toan inflationist tendency that resumes consumption. Another solution is for the state to spendmore in order to stimulate exports and reduce imports or to use other techniques ofstimulating demand. Estimates say that in the current crisis which affects the developedeconomies that make for 70% of the global GDP, these countries are caught in a liquiditytrap (Krugman 2010). This situation seems to be confirmed by the poor or at best stagnantstate of these economies.In September 2011, the IMF warned the European states and the US about thedanger of a falling back into recession following the failure to solve the financial andstructural problems. The resumption of the economic growth may be affected by thedeepening sovereign debt crisis in the EU Member States and the precipitated actions takento reduce the US budget deficit. The structural problems in the crisis-stricken developedeconomies are also more difficult to solve and the reforms harder to implement than it waspreviously held. In general, the perception of the economic – and not only economic –circles is that the European leaders have lost or are losing control over the development ofthe economic crisis, which makes the Euro-zone to be seen as a source of serious concern.In this context, the economic outlook for the Euro-zone countries is ratherpessimistic. Their governments are concerned with reducing the budget deficits, but theprivate sector seems unable for the time being to compensate the dropping demand on themarkets. Furthermore, the global misbalances between the countries with large budgetdeficit, such as the US, and large budget surplus, such as China, seem to be growingcontinuously worse. The financial markets have grown distrustful of the governments’ability to stabilize the budget situation of their countries, which increases the risk of aslowdown of the already fragile economic growth. This will make fiscal consolidation evenmore difficult, which, in its turn, can further lower the growth pace following the negativeimpact on banks.References[1]. Baden, B., Silverblatt R. (2010) 8 Problems That Could Trigger a Double-DipRecession.[2]. http://finance.yahoo.com/news/8-Problems-That-Could-Trigger-usnews-2034065513.html?x=0[3]. Consumer Confidence Survey®. The Conference board,31.01.2012, http://www.conference-board.org/data/consumerconfidence.cfmRevista Română de Statistică – Supliment Trim IV/2012 199

[4]. Douglas A. M. (2011). 10 signs the double-dip recession has begun.http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/43946055/ns/business-us_business/t/signs-double-diprecession-has-begun#.TzEQJFFPC6l[5]. Investopedia. (2012). Double-Dip Recession.http://www.investopedia.com/terms/d/doublediprecession.asp#ixzz1lEqKfviU[6]. Krugman P. (2010). How Much of the World is in a Liquidity Trap?, New York Times- The Opinion Pages. http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/03/17/how-much-of-theworld-is-in-a-liquidity-trap/.[7]. McIntyre D. A. (2011). Ten Signs The Double-Dip Recession Has Begun. 24/7 WallSt. http://247wallst.com/2011/06/06/ten-signs-the-double-dip-recession-has-begun-2/[8]. Roos D. (2012) What is a double-dip recession?, How StuffWorks. http://money.howstuffworks.com/double-dip-recession.htm200Revista Română de Statistică – Supliment Trim IV/2012

Advertising Activity and its Importance inManagement on the Example OF SME’s EnterpriseXProfessor Jozef NOVAK-MARCINCIN PhDTechnical University of KosiceProfessor Vladimir MODRAK PhDTechnical University of KosiceBartłomiej OKWIET, PhdsCzestochowa University of TechnologyAbstract:“Advertising lever trade "- it is not possible to determine the author of these"winged words", but we know that this slogan reviewers whole truth about the role ofadvertising performance throughout the economy and how its effective use may contributeto the development of every enterprise operating in the national, regional or local market.Nowadays, there is an enterprise that never would apply this tool to promote their servicesor products. Any, even the single company wanting to enter to the market and growing isforced to use the tool which is advertising. The following article presents the essence ofadvertising, its characteristics and shows four different companies that use its variousforms to promote their products and services.Key words: advertising, enterprise, marketing mix, Internet, productJEL Clasification: D01, M11, M19.Advertising characteristicsThe most common definition of advertising saying that "advertising is impersonal,payable and addressed to the mass-market form of communication 1 ." According to theInstitute of Practitioners in Advertising, advertising is an information affecting the futureconsumers (inducing them to buy) and presenting a product or service in perspective,noting that these products or services are offered at the lowest possible prices 2 . "Characteristics of advertising are as follows 3 :This information is directed to the target group of people,It is used by organizations, both profitable and non-profit organizations, they maybe government and private,Most of the advertising is paid and is broadcast via television, radio, posters,billboards or channels displaying only ads that are in possession of the organization whoare not advertisers,Despite the fact that everything might be advertised, the vast majority of today'sadvertising focuses on the advertising of products or services,Most of the advertising are used to promote companies and brands of products,1 Jefkins F., „Advertising”, Pearson Education Limited, Essex 2000, s. 52 The Institute of Practitioners in Advertising, www.ipa.co.uk3 Wright R., „Advertising”, Pearson Education Limited, Essex 2000, s. 5Revista Română de Statistică – Supliment Trim IV/2012 201

Advertising is a kind of mix consisting of advertising campaigns, PR, public andpersonal selling process.The most common classification is the division of advertising "above the line" and"below the line". "Above the Line" is an advertisement in a major media (television,newspapers, radio) and responsible for creating a suitable advertising campaign is anadvertising agency that is paid on this account. The range of this type of advertising isusually wide. "Below the line" is advertising in all other forms - the so-called. direct mail,banners, bags, posters. It can also take the form of sponsorship and also uses the Internet toreach out to as many people. Using all media except the tools that have been classified into"above the line". There is also a classification of "through the line", which is a peculiarcombination of these two, an example might be here an advertising campaign that isbroadcast on television but also takes the form of promotion. 4The purpose of advertising is to fill the communication needs which have everycompany, product, brand or service. Advertising is the tool used most often to increasesales, provide information and sometimes even education, going forward, advertising canbe a tool used to 5 :- Create awareness about the actions of industry, corporate or brand,- Inform, educate, and implement,- Strengthening, reminders, changes in attitudes and opinions,- Creation the favorite images,- Manipulate and persuade,- Introduction products or services’ samples,- Strengthening and re-buying the product,- Promotion of other forms of advertising campaign- Motivate the questioning,- Provide sales guidance for the Sales Department,- Support sales of products and services.Advertising refers to the rational and emotional attributes as well as the instinct ofhuman nature.In the universal concept of marketing mix (product, price, distribution,advertising), advertising acts as an independent element, in the process of its creationinvolved a lot of elements that can determine its effectiveness and impact on increasingsales of the product or service 6 :- The size, strength and time impact of advertising is dependent onproduct’s life cycle at which the advertised product or service is. Theimpact of advertising is much greater at the time of placing on the marketthan at the time of withdrawal,- Marketing research provides information on the motivations, preferencesand attitudes of potential clients that affect the choice and not just thegeneral concept of advertising but also in the choice of the form in whichit will be transmitted,- Name and brand of product most often are created by the advertisingdivision of the company, both of these elements play a large rolethroughout the whole campaign,4 Tibbs A., “Advertising”, Trevor Beattle, NY 2010, s. 345 McRury I., “Advertising”, Routledge, NY 2009, s.1246 Sutherland M., „Advertising and the mind of the consumer”, Allen&Unwin, Crows Nest 2008, s. 56202Revista Română de Statistică – Supliment Trim IV/2012

- advertising and PR department also takes an active part in promoting andadvertising the appearance of the product,- The marketing department is also choosing the right style for a particularcampaign,- Price plays a very important role in advertising - it determines the level ofwhether a product is a good or so-called luxury. opportunity. Price can bea very competitive argument as the recipient of the ads are in the majorityof customers informed and pay close attention to the prices,- Same products may exist in one campaign as such complementaryproducts or any type of product may require a separate advertisingcampaign- Packaging also plays a large role in advertising, on how it is perceived byprospective buyers may depend on the volume of sales of the product.Packaging should be a specific characteristic mark of the product so thatit will be quickly found on the shelves. Currently, it became very popularto use packages that are environmentally friendly - recycled undergo orundergo rapid degradation. Using this type of packaging, the companysends a signal that it is having regard to company environmental issuesand contribute to its preservation,- The distribution process involves the transmission of various forms ofadvertising content, such as television, newspapers, radio, Internet,- The sales department should be familiar with all elements of anadvertising campaign which also is a tool to support their main activitiesin trade,- Education Marketing focuses on creating the appropriate market situationwhereby the advertising shall have an effect- Many corporations and government agencies for advertising purposes,often using the so-called. trade press, using their image up a kind ofinstitutional advertising,- Before you start your ad campaign, the investigator should test itspotential effectiveness,- The use of sales promotion can sometimes replace the traditional way ofselling as well as the traditional way of advertising,- After an advertising campaign advertising department often performscalls to potential customers in order to remind that the product is stillavailable in the market and After-sales- Through advertising of complementary products or accessories, thecompany can gain the trust and loyalty of customers,- Addressing the buyers during the breaks between the advertisingcampaigns greatly helps to remember the brand or product.An created advertising campaign should be based on five main points 7 :- What is the main purpose of the sale?- Time to reach for - a week, month, year?- How is the strategy - whether it is intended to attract new customers andincrease sales at the old customers?7 Kubicka H., Taranek O., „Kody kultury. Interakcja, transformacja, synergia”, TowarzystwoPrzyjaciół Polonistyki Wrocławskiej, Wrocław 2009, s. 234Revista Română de Statistică – Supliment Trim IV/2012 203

- What tactics are most appropriate for the proposed ad, which tools shouldbe used and what form is to take the ad?- What will be the cost of the entire campaign and whether it is a goodinvestment?As seen the above, the creation of ads and entire advertising campaign is a long andcomplicated process in which people are involved with both the advertising department oradvertising agency company, but also people who, apparently, have nothing to do withparty advertising companies. To campaign to succeed, its creators have put a lot ofquestions and develop the most optimal solution. 8Advertising types and formsInitially, the ad appeared mostly in paper form, as an ad in the newspaper oradvertising on the product packaging. But with the development of technology and theadvent of radio and television, also created new forms of advertising. Currently, it standsout a lot of the most popular forms are presented below.Television advertising is probably the most popular form due to the fact thatalmost every household has a television set. This is not advertising for small businesses,because due to its high cost, only few companies are interested in this form. Televisionadvertising remains the domain of large companies and corporations who, throughtelevision advertising have the ability to reach the largest audience that spans the entirecountry.In addition to television advertising, popular and widely used form of advertisingis Internet advertising. Despite the fact that almost every household has a computer,however, only 36% of households declares as access to the Internet 9 . However, the Internetis a medium which is characterized by a constant increase in reach and it can be assumedthat in the near future will become as common as a television presence. Online advertisingis an effective advertising tool for both small and large enterprises. The Internet offersmany ways to the existence and advertise products or services offered by the enterprise 10 :- banner - this is the most popular form of online advertising, it usuallyappears at the top of the website,- button - it is a form of advertising in the shape of a small, rectangulargraphic element,- interstital - a form of advertising is taking the shape of the full-screenanimation,- pop up - this is the window that opens on the active side of the browser, itshould be noted here that it is very annoying form of advertising, andmost people respond to that ad irritation and it closes automaticallywithout going into the content of what a pop-up forward, now hardlyused,- pop - unders - unlike pop-up window that opens into the active side of thebrowser and becomes visible only when it is closed,- brandmark - a window opening above the active site but does not cover itbecause the site is completely transparent, by creating a different shapesand colors are becoming an attractive form of online advertising,8 Vladutescu S., Dima I.C., Persuasion Elements Used in Logistical Negotiation, Lambert AcademicPublishing Saarbrücken, Germany 20129 www.interstats.pl10 Jacobs H., „Advertising”, Career FAQ’s, NY 2006, s. 89204Revista Română de Statistică – Supliment Trim IV/2012

- toplayer - this is a lasting max. 10 seconds animation that takes place onthe active browser window,- expand - it is a developed form of banner, originally developed in the fullversion, covering the active site and then, after a few seconds, folds to thesize of the banner,- scroll -this the form of advertising that follows the user scrolls the activesite,- watermark - is to put the company logo in the background site, it takesthe form of wallpaper,- advertorial - this is the article purchased by the company, describing theadvantages of such a product,- comet cursor - the image field which is linked to the mouse and followshim,- sponsorship - in the form of advertising there is a strong integration witha particular advertiser's site, which usually takes the shape of aresemblance to the advertised product,- mailing - they are advertised a list sent to Internet users via email,- advertising in the newsletter - contained in the bulletin, which, unlike thetraditional newsletter is sent to users by e-mail- scroller - it's an advertising bar displayed at the bottom of the site and notchanging its position.Besides, the above-mentioned forms, there are many other forms of advertisingthat can be used by the company 11 :- radio advertising,- press advertisement,- cell phones- traditional mail,- cinema- buzz marketing,- large advertising surface,- gadgets,- flyers, brochures, posters,- alternative advertising.Taking into account the strategic objectives of the company it intends to achieveby means of advertising, including ads, you can distinguish the following types 12 :- advertising for information, draws attention to buyers on the benefits theycan achieve by purchasing the advertised product or service- that an ad like the product / service is still available in the market,- advertising whose purpose is to promote and present point of view of thecompany in case of controversial issues, such as on environmentalprotection,- curtain advertising, which is to take attention of buyers from one productto another, newly introduced to the market, the product of the samebrand,11 Walker Laid P., „Advertising Progress”, The John Hopkins University Press, NY 2001, s. 6712 Lee M., Johnson C., „Principles of Advertising”, The Haworth Press, NY 2005, s. 74Revista Română de Statistică – Supliment Trim IV/2012 205

- targeted advertising that directs customers to the outlets where they canpurchase the product / service,- professional advertising is usually addressed to the people of the liberalprofessions, such as doctors, musicians, visual artists,- presented in comparative advertising are the advantages and features ofthe product in comparison with those of other brand products,- advertising accentuates the distinctive competitive advantages comparedto products of its competitors,• advertising associated with the PR (Public Relations), whose mainpurpose is to provide information about the activities undertaken by thecompany,- aggressive advertising, by invoking a strong impression, induces buyersto act quickly, such as immediate purchase the product or service,- stresses the prestigious advertising much of the product / service,highlights their uniqueness and special purpose, it creates the impressionof exclusivity and inaccessibility,- defensive in advertising, the product / service are presented in oppositionto the advertising competition.With such a wide selection of both forms and types of advertising, everyenterprise, whether offering products or services, can find a form of advertising which isappropriate for itself and for its practical use, enter the market, increase sales and earn agood reputation among customers. Below are four companies differ in the nature of theactivity, and therefore, using different forms and types of advertising in order to achievethose objectives.Advertising in the SME’s (small and medium enterprises) sectorThe enterprises presented below differ from each profile of activity, but all operatein the SME sector. The first is a printing company that provides comprehensive support forclients ranging from graphic design, printing and after the final installation of a poster orbanner. Printing contract takes all kinds, from leaflets after spending several thousandbooks. Its clients are individuals and whole companies. In this way, printing is a companyoperating in the B2B and B2C area. B2B area (Business to business) means that a customerof a company is another business unit, company, municipality or government. B2C area(Business to Client) indicates that enterprises’ customers are the private individuals.Another company is a manufacturer of trolleys. It stands out compared to othermanufacturers of trucks from Czestochowa (must add that the City is a kind of Mecca fortrolleys manufacturers) as the only manufacturer who is recognized abroad. Trolleysproduced by it go to stores across the country and have seen on the streets of Slovakia, theCzech Republic, Hungary, Lithuania and Russia for a few years. The companymanufactures trolleys in addition to a wide range of products for kids - car seats, high chair,pushchairs or beds. A few years ago, it has created another Premium product line. Since itsfinished product are purchased by the private individuals, the company operates in the B2Carea. Another company working in the horticultural industry, involved in green spacesbelong to the city. Its offer is directed only to business partners and thus is a B2B company.Currently supports over 70% of urban green areas of the city, and every year its order bookincreased by orders from the following municipalities, located near the Czestochowa city.The last company is a company producing car carpets. There are in the market for over 30years and from 15 specialized in manufacturing car carpets, which has more than 900 onoffer. Its main customer is the Fiat group, but the company also runs sales individual,206Revista Română de Statistică – Supliment Trim IV/2012

carrying out orders from private individuals. Guided by its offer, both to business partnersand individuals, the company operates in the area, both B2B and B2C.Despite the fact that all the above presented companies operate in differentindustries and significantly differ from each profile of activity. This, however, each of thesecompanies use the tool which is advertising. This diversity action profile, results for eachcompany used different forms of advertising will bring a satisfactory result.It should be noted that only two of these companies have websites, on these pagescan be found basic information about the enterprise, review the range of products, acompany engaged in producing car carpets put on its website an opportunity to purchasewith the home- delivery. Manufacturer's website serves as a representative trucks, itcontains a directory of all the products, information on service and warranties as well as alist of points where you can buy its products. The other two companies did not have awebsite, and bearing in mind that more and more it has access to the Internet and manypeople will be significantly easier to become familiar with the offer of the company withouthaving to leave home, both companies should think about creating such a page (as one ofthe forms of advertising). In the case of printing on the page, in addition to basicinformation, you may find a full range of the company along with pricing and the ability tosend the finished design to printing and print the final receipt by mail or courier. Thissolution should cause the printer customers who want to use the printing services from timeto time by outsourcing to print, such as paper or thesis. The company engaged in the greenareas on your website can include information about the history of their business (this is afamily business for over 30 years of existence on the market). The site could find galleriesof land remaining under the care of the company together with the tender for the followingmunicipalities or counties. 13Whereas other forms of advertising, each of the above companies to easily find anappropriate form of advertising for themselves. For all the good form of advertisingcompanies will be called. buzz marketing, advertising is transmitted through direct verbalcommunication. Such a buzz marketing is more reliable when taking part in it so.individuals, it is common knowledge that one person is more inclined to believe the opinionof the spoken by a person other than the traditional means of information suppliedadvertising.For companies dealing with production trucks and car carpets, good form ofadvertising can be product placement (product placement in the middle of the media) in atelevision program having a similar theme to their profile. Manufacturer of trucks can occurin breakfast television which are frequently discussed topics related to children andrecipients of such programs are often young mothers. Manufacturer of floor mats can getproduct placement in the car in which they presented the advantages of each product. Agood program for the manufacturer of rugs can be "controlled purchase" broadcast by TVN,is a program that has a fairly large audience, and product placement in this type of programis a very good idea.Another form of advertising can become a forum established by the company, inthe case of a company engaged in green spaces can be a forum for urban greenery, gardensand caring. The company may post photos online showing the results of their activities andanswer the question. The lift manufacturer can create a specialized forum in which toadvise how the truck is the most suitable, what to look for when buying and what13 Dima, I.C., Marcincin, I.N., Grabara, J., Pachura, P., Kot, S., & Man, M. Operational managementsystems of the production achieved in flexible manufacturing cells. Presov, Slovakia: TechinicalUniversity of Kosice 2011.Revista Română de Statistică – Supliment Trim IV/2012 207

accessories might be necessary. Will also allow individual selection of tastes trolleymothers, fathers a child with simultaneous convenience, but which will be transported inthe trucks.Printing can also advertise through the creation of skins for different kinds ofevents - festivals, fairs, or playgrounds. The manufacturer of rugs can advertise throughparticipation in car shows.ConclusionIt is obvious that every enterprise having a different profile of activity is able tofind a form of advertising that is most suitable for it and thus, significantly contribute togrowth or increase the number of contract customers. As the advertising market isconstantly changing, every moment, there are new advertising strategies and new forms ofit, every company has the opportunity to benefit from the diversity that represents a tooladvertising.References[1]. Dima, I.C., Marcincin, I.N., Grabara, J., Pachura, P., Kot, S., & Man, M. Operationalmanagement systems of the production achieved in flexible manufacturing cells.Presov, Slovakia: Techinical University of Kosice (2011).[2]. Jacobs H., „Advertising”, Career FAQ’s, NY 2006.[3]. Jefkins F., „Advertising”, Pearson Education Limited, Essex 2000.[4]. Kubicka H., Taranek O., „Kody kultury. Interakcja, transformacja, synergia”,Towarzystwo Przyjaciół Polonistyki Wrocławskiej, Wrocław 2009.[5]. Lee M., Johnson C., „Principles of Advertising”, The Haworth Press, NY 2005.[6]. McRury I., “Advertising”, Routledge, NY 2009.[7]. Sutherland M., „Advertising and the mind of the consumer”, Allen&Unwin, CrowsNest 2008.[8]. Tibbs A., “Advertising”, Trevor Beattle, NY 2010.[9]. The Institute of Practitioners in Advertising, www.ipa.co.uk[10]. Vladutescu S., Dima I.C., Persuasion Elements Used in Logistical Negotiation,Lambert Academic Publishing Saarbrücken, Germany 2012[11]. Walker Laid P., „Advertising Progress”, The John Hopkins University Press, NY2001.[12]. Wright R., „Advertising”, Pearson Education Limited, Essex 2000.[13]. www.interstats.pl208Revista Română de Statistică – Supliment Trim IV/2012

Quality of Products and Services, Factors withMajor Impact on Tourism ActivityLecturer Oana-Maria MILEA PhDoanamaria_rezeanu@yahoo.com"Dimitrie Cantemir" Christian UniversityAbstractThe valorization of a country, region or geographical area’s touristic patrimonyimplies the fact that minimum conditions regarding tourists’ journey, sojourn andqualitative free time spending should be provided. In essence, the combination of theseelements offers tourists the highest satisfaction in a trip or holiday.In order to obtain differential advantage, service providers have to improvequality aiming to overcome the perceived quality of consumer expectations. For thispurpose, organizations must identify: what are the main factors determinants of servicequality, what are the customer expectations who want to acces services from the companyprovider, how consumers assesses company services compared to their expectations.We can say that compared to products quality, service quality is relative, as amatter of balance, meaning that it requires an approach on several levels, and hisassessment is quite difficult to achieve and quantify.Key words: quality, service, product, evaluation, tourismJEL Classification: L15IntroductionAssessment of quality products and services requires a broad approach given thecomplex and dynamic concept of quality in general. Numerous aspects are pursued in orderto achieve this objective and this point requires some clarification. Currently, more thanever, consumers have access to free and open markets that allow them wherever andwhenever purchasing goods or services desired, in terms of strong competition betweenbidders. Performance due to technical progress and other factors of influence, have allowedmanufacturers and service providers to offer consumers attention increasingly bettertargeting the same goal: to satisfied demand and exceed customer expectations.The quality of products and servicesGeneral concept quality is used in most areas of activity: however (maybe that'swhy), there is no universal definition of the concept of quality. Scientists, researchers inthis field, professionals from business, define quality in relation to various criteria that areconsistent with the scope of their activities representing a quality (as) to be, and definingthe meaning and use of this concept are nature: philosophical, technical, economic andsocial (Pascu E. ş.a.,2012).The concept of "product" used to mean "commodity" is a "good material resultingfrom a labor process" or "all objects or property obtained in the production process".In the spirit of traditional marketing, the product is "the sum of tangible attributesand characteristics, physical and chemical together in an identifiable form"( NicolauI.,2012).Revista Română de Statistică – Supliment Trim IV/2012 209

In the book "Marketing Management", the product is "anything that can be offeredon the market for attention, acquisition, use or consumption and which is capable ofsatisfying a desire, a need" (Kotler, Ph., 1999).Service concept refers to the result of which is the interface between supplier andcustomer, services beeing all valuable activities that some people provides them to benefitof other members of society.Making a service may involve (Stanciu, I., Părăian E.,2002):- an activity performed on a tangible product;- an activity performed on an intangible product;- delivery of an intangible product;- creation of ambience for the customer.Services have certain characteristics that distinguish them more or less fromproducts.Thus, services are characterized primarily by immateriality and intangibility.Unlike the product, which exists by itself, generally service is impalpable, intangible, can’tbe seen, tried, tasted, heard, smelled, therefore, services are called "invisible" and tradewith services " invisible trade ".Intangible nature of services has important consequences for international trade"invisible" in that services can not be "surprised" at border crossings, and therefore canavoid "barriers" traditional customs and trade registration services in balance of paymentsoften encounter difficulties (Ioncica, M., 2006).Also, intangible character makes many services not to be "transferable" across theborder, they must be produced on the spot, "in situ" abroad.Services are perishable, they can be stored, this leading to another characteristic,namely perishability. This feature of the services can cause a number of shortcomings,especially in ensuring the balance between supply and demand and actual service. Onceoffered but not used, these services can lead to loss of resources both material and humanresources.Another feature of the services, which fundamentally distinguishes them fromproducts is the simultaneous production of goods and service consumption. As no stock, itdetermines that any disparity of time or place to result in losses of supply and / or unmetdemand. Service change is not possible, service provided can not be returned, existing arisk associated with the acquisition phenomenon, related to service purchase decision.Inseparability of services from individual provider and from the user characterizesmost services. The service measure is effective delivery provider and ask about work, thematerial means of benefit and service object, material or social reality that changed ormodified. The main difference between the production of services and manufacturing ofmaterial goods is that the client is part of the production (Ioncica, M., 2006).Closely linked to the presence and participation provider, service quality dependsgreatly on the level of his professional qualifications, talent, skills, accuracy with which itis running. Variability or heterogeneity is a feature which gives its service compared toproducts the possibility not to repeat in an identical manner a certain service, not to becopied.To these features listed above can be added others to differentiate products,namely:- service price is a price of demand: customer using a service make achoice between one service to make or buy;- lack of ownership: the service offers an advantage or a beneficiarysatisfaction result without transfer of ownership of anything.210Revista Română de Statistică – Supliment Trim IV/2012

Some specialists considered that services have certain properties that make themdifferent category of product realization processes, namely (Harington H. J., 2002):- services reflects the behavior of the one who provide;- if an opportunity is missed, there is no a second chance;- the client is part of the process of benefit;- service can not be easily withdrawn from the market compared toproducts;- quality assurance activities must be completed before taking the product,which may not be possible for services;- more the client is in permanent contact with many people, the less likelyto be satisfied.Unlike products, in case of services where quality and productivity oftencontradicts because dilemma service providers is to provide customers with exceptionalbenefits while serving more customers per employee. Productivity and high quality servicescan be correlated only after all errors are eliminated (Apostol D.M., 2012).In assessing service quality, service companies use five complementary methods,namely: critical incident method, complaints management, customer mysterious; list ofcomments, satisfaction survey. Another aspect to be said about the quality compared to theservices is related to factors that influence directly or indirectly the quality of services, asfollows:- Accuracy, ie the ability to provide an accurate and attentive servicecontracted;- Responsiveness, ie willingness provider to assist consumers and to provideprompt service;- Safety, that provider's ability to inspire confidence in the quality of servicecustomers- Individualization (personalization) and concerns and efforts to deal with eachcustomer due in part;- Tangible elements, namely the existence of material facilities, equipment,staff and the materials appropriate advertising service.Romanian turism service quality compared to Bulgarian turism servicequalityBalneoclimacteric sector is an important component of Romanian tourism offer.Mineral and thermal waters, mud with therapeutic qualities, mofettes, temperate climateand, not least, the Romanian Black Sea coast, with a combination of factors of course, is theargument for health tourism and spa in Romania. Travel companies from climatic spastotaling about 30 000 accommodation places, thus accounting for about 20% of Romania'saccommodation capacity. It should be noted that spa treatments in our country have a longtradition, as Romania is among the first countries in the world that created a scientificsociety of balneology and climatology. Currently, Romania has many spas located indifferent areas of Romania, among the most important are: Felix (West), Herculane,Călimanesti-Căciulata, Covasna Sovata Vatra Dornei, Mangalia, Saturn, Eforie North, whosucceeded, by their offer, to attract over the years a large number of both Romanian andforeign tourists.Romanian seaside of Black Sea is a place to spend the holiday for many tourists,but also a destination because they wish to treat various diseases in clinics spas in resortsthat Eforie North, South Eforie, Neptune, Saturn and Mangalia. Touristic season in this areais extended by spa treatment programs since the first tourists arrive at the Romanian BlackRevista Română de Statistică – Supliment Trim IV/2012 211

Sea since April and leave at the end of September. In clinics in those resorts are particularlyvalued the therapeutic qualities of mud of Techirghiol Lake, located about 15 km southfrom Constanta. Outside mud of Techirghiol, spa bases on Romanian Black Sea coast alsoused to cure other natural factors in the area such as sea water, water and sewagemesothermal peat extracted near Mangalia. In the seaside spa clinics, which appear incatalogs of major tour operators abroad, can be treated, outside the summer season,degenerative diseases, inflammatory, dermatological, respiratory and gynecological.With all the advantages offered by the Romanian Black Sea coast, there are somenegative aspects related to tourism in this area, which make foreign tourists and Romanianpeople prefer other similar tourist destinations such as Bulgaria.Some of these negative aspects that characterize tourism Romanian Black Seacoastal area, are (Nedea P.S., 2012):- Romanian seaside has too low recreational offer versus natural andhuman potential at its disposal;- small number of facilities that are obsolete in terms of equipment andfacilities;- no direct airline Intenational Airport to Constanta, Mihail Kogălniceanu;- existence of appropriate unmaintained beaches, which didn’t offers guestscomfort. For example, Mamaia last year faced with an invasion of algae,which, with all the effort by authorities to remove them all drove awaytourists on the coast at that time;- price of the Romanian seaside tourism packages is significantly higherthan that offered by other tourist destinations located in neighboringcountries. For example a stay of six nights in high season in a cheapestseaside resort can end up costing about 250 euros, while in Bulgaria to266 euros per week you can rent a cottage in Albena for four people ;- lack of service packages to offer all-inclusive of Romanian tourism,successfully marketed by Bulgaria, Turkey and Greece. Foreign touristswant in addition to comfort, the tour package they purchase to becomplete, so additional costs are much lower.- lack of cooperation among actors involved in tourism management, thatthe public authorities and local government, with direct effects on theallocation of funds necessary for the development and modernization ofthe coastal areaAs a tourist destination, Bulgaria has won in recent years, a sufficiently large partof tourists who traditionally visited Romania and Romanian Black Sea coast turned theirminds to Bulgaria. Before 2000, many of Bulgaria beaches have been awarded "blue flag".This distinction is an internationally recognized label to certain beaches that meet certainconditions related to cleaning and the highest quality service on that beach. Currently,Bulgaria has ten beaches that have this title. In 2010, after efforts, Mamaia, Eforie North,Neptune, Saturn and the tourist port of Eforie North obtained from the Foundation forEnvironmental Education distinguished "Blue Flag" . The strengths of Bulgarian tourismoffer, which attracts a large number of foreign tourists are, also:- Bulgarian seaside has a length of 378 km. and varied: open beaches andlagoons followed by deep bays, small dunes and cliffs, forest-coveredmountains and peninsulas covered with vineyards and orchards, fishingvillages, villas, bungalows, modern resorts and sandy beaches;- Most Bulgarian resorts are located quite far from the stress of large cities, butat the same time very close to many tourist sites;212Revista Română de Statistică – Supliment Trim IV/2012

- leading investors - such as for example the German TUI or Neckermanoffered not only advice but also money for investment in new hotels, based ontheir projects. Later, "loan" was paid through the provision of travel servicesto tourists;- creating a positive image among foreign tour operators who persuaded themto invest significant sums in upgrading to international standards: an exampleis TUI which annually brings many foreign tourists: Germans are seenincreasingly frequently the Bulgarian lands and increasingly rare on theRomanian;- Bulgarian seaside is one of the most welcoming and cheap destinations forfamilies with children. Beach clubs are organized for children with specializedstaff, and in some resorts, such as Albena, there are kindergardens, wheretourists can leave their children when they participate in various trips orrecreational activities. These services can’t be provided on the Romanianseaside, where families with young children can participate in variousactivities because there are no special places for children care (Nenciu D,2009);- Bathing water quality is better on the Bulgarian seaside. According to a reportby the European Commission in Romania there in 2007, there is one placewhere water quality meet European Union requirements, compared toBulgaria, which had 70 such places. Out of the 49 bathing waters monitoredby the European Agency in 2008, only one of Romania meet EUrequirements, while in Bulgaria, of the 89 evaluated waters on the Black Sea,70 comply with Community (European Environment Agency);ConclusionsBoth by its geographical location and nature of accommodation, catering andentertainment which the Black Sea coast offers, Bulgaria performs a sustained tourismactivity. Areas Balchik, Albena and Golden Sands have a diversified tourism potential andrecreation, being completed by the best report quality-price for travel benefits, that`s whyso many foreign tourists choose as their holiday destination for Bulgarian seaside.References[1]. Apostol Diana- Mihaela, 2012, Microeconomie, Pro Universitaria Publishing House,Bucharest.[2]. Harington HJ, 2002 Totaly management in the 21st century company, TeoraPublishing House,, Bucharest.[3]. Ioncica, M., 2006 Service economy. Theoretical approaches and practical implications,Uranus Publishing House, Bucharest.[4]. Kotler, Ph.., 1999, Marketing Management, Teora Publishing House, Bucharest.[5]. Nedea P.S., 2012, Geografie economică - Note de curs, Editura Universitară PublishingHouse, Bucharest.[6]. Nenciu D, 2009 Marketing Strategies for development of Romanian tourism,, Ex PontoPublishing House.[7]. Nicolau I., 2012, Euromarketing, Prouniversitaria Publishing House, Bucharest,[8]. Pascu E., Stanciu, I., Părăian E, 2012, Fundamentele stiintei marfurilor, Universitară ,Publishing House, Bucharest.[9]. Stanciu, I., Paraian E., 2009, Fundamentals of Commodity Science, RenaissancePublishing House, Bucharest.Revista Română de Statistică – Supliment Trim IV/2012 213

Romania’s Governmental Public Debt in theContext of the Present Day Financial Crisis: itsDynamics During the Last Ten YearsMariana MANman_mariana2006@yahoo.comUniversity of PetrosaniMaria MACRISmariamacris2011@ yahoo.comUniversity of PetrosaniAbstractThe main objective of this work is to identify the determining role of the evolutionof government debt on the Romanian economy in current conditions of global financialcrisis. With a view to make clear the analyzed phenomenon, we have employed animportant amount of statistic data in order to carry out the research dealing with thedynamics of Romania’s governmental public debt during the period 2001-2010 whichemphasized the main tendencies displayed by its evolution and which influence themeasures meant to improve the management of public debt.Key words: governmental public debt, financial crisis, gross domestic product,public debt management, stocks.JEL classification: E00, G01, H19, H63, M481. IntroductionSpecialized Romanian and foreign works emphasize the issue of public debt not asa recent phenomenon, but as one exhibiting a history whose evolution is long lasting and ismade particular according to stages which proved to be real shortcomings for debtorcountries. These obstacles have been, on the one hand, determined by the poverty and thepoor administration of the funds of debtor countries, and, on the other hand, by the loanerswho also played a part in the occurrence of certain financial crises (Sturzenegger andZettelmeyer, 2006) Under such circumstances, Romania too has witnessed a very difficultperiod which regards the administration of external public debt and which was especiallyserious at the beginning of the 1980s. The emergence of an increase of the need ofresources, in general, but, especially of developing the various fields of activity in industry,agriculture, research, culture, social protection, education, environment protection hasoccurred when the political, social, and economic context of a country changed from onepolitical regime to another. Accordingly, it was more and more clear that each countryshould strive to find out solutions in order to cover its self-financing needs. At the sametime, it was clear that the instruments of public debt may be seen as alternative devicescapable of providing financial funds.The arguments that support our option for such a topic are mainly the followingones: national interest, the topic’s importance for the theoretical and methodologicalevaluation and hierarchy settling focusing upon governmental public debt and its turning to214Revista Română de Statistică – Supliment Trim IV/2012

good account within a specific system; nevertheless, the prevailing argument of theproposed research evidently is financial crisis. It is widely known that this crisis has beendetermined by the lack of liquidities on the market of the United States of America in 2008,a fact that turned into the most serious global economic crisis during the last 70 years(Reinhart and Rogoff, 2009). The crisis has determined shocks upon the financial marketsfor all the types of assets including the instruments of public debt. In September 2008, as aresult of the collapse of Lehman Brothers, the financial crisis extended by contaminating allassets markets. During the second trimester of 2009 the quotations of the stock exchangemarkets began to recover.A recent study 1 carried out at the initiative of the United Nations Conference onTrade and Development, UNCTAD, shows that the global financial crisis tremendouslyweakened the banking field of a lot of countries. In case global crisis extends over thefollowing years, the risk of banks’ bankruptcies will grow and determine a supplementalpressure upon the national budgets already weakened. The governments of powerfulindustrialized countries have provided financial support to the important banks overcomingtheir bankruptcy which would have determined a lack of liquidities that might negativelyaffect the entire economic system. The last UNCTAD report emphasizes the fact that thereis a strict correlation between the fluctuation of stock exchanges’ quotations on variousmarkets and the condition of the financial system due to the speculative behavior of suchmarkets. As long as financial costs are determined by speculative movements on themarket, the investors on the financial markets cannot get a predictable profit. Such a factdetermines the decrease of financial investments with direct effects upon the governments’access to financial resources.When acknowledging the contradictions on these markets one may understand theroots of the present crisis; such an acknowledgement should become the ground for thefuture policies and reforms that target to stabilize the financial system. The nowadayseconomic crisis has determined a rapid increase of public debt at a global level (Reinhartand Rogoff, 2010). At present, there is a worldwide liquidity crisis for covering the shortterm financing needs. Although in the United States of America and the countries ofWestern Europe the effects of the crisis visibly diminished as a result of the State’sintervening, the climax of the economic crisis and of extreme poverty will be attained at theend of 2011. In case of the countries under development, the scenarios of UNCTAD expertsexpect during 2011 drastic decreases of economic growths; poor countries are going to bemost vulnerable when facing the action of external factors. At present there is a worldwideliquidity crisis with negative effects upon the majority of world’s economies. Accordingly,liquidity crisis turns assets into non-liquid assets and consequently difficulties appear whilecontracting public debt which will finally determine the blockage of a lot of financialinvestments. Although, at the end of 2011, a normal behavior of international financialmarkets is prefigured, under the present circumstances, liquidity cannot turn to its normalcondition. Besides, an increase of the competition among the countries that resort toexternal, non-refundable funds is prefigured.Under the circumstances of the nowadays crisis, the International Monetary Fundis once again world’s main financing entity. Although this financial institution has notproved to be a performing one, the implementation of the policies of the economies of the1 The United Nations Conference on Trade and Development, Compendium on Debt Sustainabilityand Development, United Nations, New York and Geneva, (2009), pp. 46-47.Revista Română de Statistică – Supliment Trim IV/2012 215

countries worldwide have been stated in pragmatic terms by certain specialists who tookpart in various international conferences. 2The policies targeting the improvement of the sustainability of the public debt ofunder development countries should be founded upon acknowledging the fact that thesecountries have tremendous needs of infrastructure investments but, at the same time, theydo not possess the technical and organizational ability to attract such financing and toefficiently administrate it. These countries have to face an important dilemma: they mayeither maintain their sustainability and direct their loans towards long term viableinvestment projects or try to get as many loans as they can while facing a forceful comingback of a new financial crisis. Both options will determine a small economic growth on ashort term. Another argument concerning the present stage condition of the hereby researchtopic is the one regarding the part and responsibilities of public debt managers (Dima,1999). This issue is approached by the specialized works of the experts who took part in theabove mentioned conference. According to the opinions of these specialists, the issuesdetermined by the administration of public debt have become a priority for all the countriesirrespective of their development level and they may determine major risks for the economyof all countries. The proper administration of public debt implies the modeling, by themanagers of this department, of an optimum structure of the instruments of public debt, asan absolute value and as a share, in order to grasp a balance between the funds coming fromthe exterior and internal funds.Accordingly, one should avoid directing the strategy of contracting public fundsonly from external sources, a fact demonstrated by the experience of those countries thathad to face serious problems regarding the administration of external public debt. Althoughwhen resorting to external funds, the State rapidly collects important funds without anyimmediate financial effort, one should not ignore the indebting degree of future generationsthat will have to pay both the due rates of the loans and the afferent interests ( Dascalu,2006). With each new financial crisis, the management of public debt should develop newmechanisms having as an objective the re-modeling of the instruments of public debt, themonitoring of the external debt of the private field, the integration of the strategiesregarding public debt at a macroeconomic level, and the integration of managementtechniques capable to anticipate the implicit risks that come out of the process of publicdebt’s management. Such an argument is treated and in the work of other authors (Holt,2009).2. Conceptual approaches regarding public debt in the economic literatureOur research shows that during the period 2001 – 2010, as a result of thesuccessive changes of the afferent national legal framework, the concept of public debtdisplayed three definitions:2 The International Conference centered on the topic “The management of Public Debt” that tookplace in 2009, at the United Nations Palace in Geneva. The conference had among guests experts inadministrating public debt, representatives of the Supreme Audit Institutions, representatives ofnational central banks, of the Universities of Pavia and Vienna, of the European Commission,INTOSAI – IDI, OECD, as well as representatives of the international and regional financialorganisms (International Monetary Funs, World bank, European Bank for Investments, Arab Bank forEconomic Development in Africa, Asia’s development Bank, Inter-American Development Bank,Royal Bank of Scotland)216Revista Română de Statistică – Supliment Trim IV/2012

Public debt represents “all internal and external obligations of the State, at acertain moment, contracted by the Government, through the Ministry of Finances, on behalfof Romania” 3 ;Public debt represents “governmental public debt to which one adds local publicdebt.” 4 , and governmental public debt represents ”all internal and external financialobligations of the State, at a certain moment, sourced in directly contracted loans or in Stateguaranteed loans, through the Ministry of Finances, on behalf of Romania, on financialmarkets” 5 ;Public debt represents “all obligations of governmental and local public debt” 6and governmental public debt represents “all the obligations of the State, at a certainmoment, sourced in refundable financings engaged according to contractual grounds orguaranteed by the Government through the Ministry of the Economy and Finances…” 7 .Certain authors (Calin, 2006) state that governmental public debt is determined by“the financial needs of the State that prove to have a permanent character”. The financialneeds of the State are covered by the incomes of the State that come out of taxes and othercontributions. The State’s incomes and the opportunity of getting them are almost neverenough in order to cover all expenditures during a determined period (a year, as a rule).Such a shortcoming of resources determines the out - breaking of certain budget deficitswhose covering is done through resorting to internal or external loans. The total amount ofthe loaned sums and non-refunded at a certain moment determines the issuing of the publicdebt of a country (Dafflon, 1995).Governmental public debt is a component of public debt which, together withprivate debt, makes the total debt of a country.Public debt includes the total sums loaned by the central public authorities, byadministrative and territory units and by other public entities, from natural or legal personson the internal market and abroad and non-refunded at a certain moment.Governmental public debt represents the total financial obligations of the State, ata certain moment, sourced in the refundable financings directly contracted or guaranteed bythe Government on financial markets.Direct governmental public debt represents the total financial obligations of theState, at a certain moment, sourced in refundable financings engaged according to contractsby the Government, including those contracted by the authorities of the central publicadministration.Guaranteed governmental public debt represents the total financial obligations ofthe State, at a certain moment, sourced in the refundable financings guaranteed by theGovernment, excluding those contracted by the authorities of the central publicadministration.State’s guarantee for a loan represents an indirect obligation of the Romanian Statethat is to be executed in case the loan’s beneficiary does not possess the capacity of fully orpartly paying the loan, the interest, and other afferent costs. In case a State guarantee for aloan becomes eligible, the States is forced to make the payment the guaranteed debtor owestowards the crediting institution. In order to cover financial risks that come out of theState’s guarantee of the loans contracted from crediting institutions, they constitute the risk3 Art. 1, paragraph 2 of Law no. 81/1999 of public debt.4 Art. 2, paragraph 4 of Law no. 313/2004 of public debt.5 Art. 2, paragraph 2 of Law no. 313/2004 of public debt.6 Art. 2, letter c) of Government Order no. 64/2007 regarding public debt.7 Art. 2, letter d) of Government Order no. 64/2007 regarding public debt.Revista Română de Statistică – Supliment Trim IV/2012 217

fund which is financed by the commissions paid by the beneficiaries of the guaranteedloans, the interests obtained out of the placements of the sums in deposits, the increasingdue to delays which are perceived when commissions are not paid in term, from the budgetfunds allocated with this in view as well as from other sources.Local public debt is made of the total amount of the financial obligations of theadministrative and territory units, at a certain moment, resulting out of the refundablefinancings engaged according to contracts or guaranteed by the authorities of the localpublic administration, on financial market. We should mention that local public debt is partof Romania’s public debt but does not represent Government’s obligations; the payment ofthe service of local public debt is to be made out of the incomes of the administrative andterritory units who engaged the loan or out of the financial resources of the beneficiaries ofthe guarantees emitted by the administrative and territory units.Direct local public debt represents the total amount of the financial obligations ofthe administrative and territory units, at a certain moment, sourced in the refundablefinancings directly engaged by them, according to contracts.Guaranteed local public debt includes the total amount of the financial obligationsof the administrative and territory units, at a certain moment, sourced in the refundablefinancings guaranteed by them.The conceptual principles of public debt are defined as representing “the totalamount of gross debts due by the end of the year, at their nominal value, in the field ofpublic administration, except for the liabilities whose financial assets are detained by thefield of public administration”, according to the stipulations of art. 1, paragraph (5) of theRegulations (CE) no. 479/2009 of the Council, dated May, 25 th , 2009 concerning theimplementation of the Protocol regarding the procedure to be applied to excessive deficitsannexed to the Treaty of constituting the European Unions, republished.At the same time, according to the European System of National and RegionalAccounts of the Union (SEC 95) adopted through the Regulations of the Council of Europe(CE) no. 2223/1996, with subsequent modifications and annotations, it is known that thefield of public administration is sub-divided into four sub-fields: Central administration;Federal states administration – the hereby sub-field does not regard Romania; Localadministrations; and Social security administrations.Public debt is made of the liabilities of central administration and display thefollowing categories: cash and deposits, titles other than common stocks, except for derivedfinancial products and credits, as they are defined by ESA95 [ESA95 is the Englishacronym of the European System of Accounts]. “The nominal value of a liability due at theend of the year is its initial nominal value.”The documentation emphasized the fact thatpublic debt calculated according to the Government Order no. 64/2007 differs from thepublic debt calculated according to ESA95 methodology. At the same time, one can noticethat it finally determines different reports at the level of the public debt calculated for thesame period of time. We are able to state that, according to INTOSAI, public debt isdefined as comprising the following categories of financial obligations (INTOSAI, Publicdebt defining guide, 2003):a) Debts and other engagements of central government or of the federalgovernment depending on the character of the country’s political organizing; governmentsand State authorities, departmental, municipal, regional authorities, other governments andlocal authorities; companies and public companies detained and controlled as well as otherentities that are considered to be public or similar;b) Debts and other engagements of a public entity assumed before privatecompanies or other entities.218Revista Română de Statistică – Supliment Trim IV/2012

The research shows that while displaying the concept of public debt, theCommittee for public debt of INTOSAI undergoes an exhaustive approach of the conceptof public debt; accordingly, it includes besides the total debt of the Government, of itsorganizations, of State and municipal authorities, the debt of national companies with aState majority capital, of the State financial system, of monetary authorities and ofcontingent debts.3. Analysis and findings regarding the dynamics of Romania’s public debtduring the period 2001 – 2010The research focused along two major objectives of the study, namely thedetermining of the dynamics and evolution of Romania’s governmental public debt and theoutlining the tendencies registered by it. Accordingly, during the period 31.12.2001 –31.12.2010, Romania’s public debt registered the evolution displayed by Table 3.1.Table 3.1 Dynamics of Romania’s public debt in million Lei/million Euroand of public debt in Euro per capitaYear Public debt Public debt Romania’sPublic debt in(million Lei) (million Euro) populationEurope per capita0 1 2 3 4=2/3 x 1.000.0002001 33 817.8 12 129.3 22 408 400 541.32002 43 867.4 12 562.6 21 794 800 576.42003 51 363.2 12 492.0 21 733 600 574.82004 55 819.6 14 073.5 21 673 300 649.32005 59 010.9 16 048.2 21 623 800 742.22006 63 340.8 18 730.5 21 584 400 867.82007 82 324.4 22 803.3 21 537 600 1 058.82008 109 795.1 27 534.4 21 504 400 1 280.42009 147 329.1 34 832.9 21 470 000 1 622.42010 194 459.2 45 434.4 21 413 815 2 212.8Source: Romania’s Ministry of Public Finances,(http://www.mfinante.ro/rapoarteMFP.html)The analysis of the displayed data shows that beginning with 2007 Romania’spublic debt had a tremendous growth attaining, on 31.12.2010, 194 459.2 million Lei (45434.4 million Euro), as compared with the level registered on 31.12.2006, namely 3 340.8million Lei (18 730.5 million Euro), that is a 312% growth. The increase of public debt in2010 as compared with the debt registered at the end of 2009 was mainly determined by theloans contracted in order to finance budget deficit and re-finance public debt as well as inorder to issue guarantees according to the governmental program called “The First Home”.As one may notice, during the analyzed period public debt in Euro per capita hasmore than significantly increased so that on 31.12.2010 it was 4.09 times the one on31.12.2001. In time, Romania’s public debt displayed a tendency towards a continualgrowth that inevitably determined the increase of afferent interest as well as of total publicexpenditures. The International Monetary Fund has proposed that one of the vulnerabilityRevista Română de Statistică – Supliment Trim IV/2012 219

indices (INTOSAI Public Debt Working Group, 2007, and ISSAI 5411) should be publicdebt compared with gross domestic product.The analysis of vulnerability requires the modeling of cartain indices capable tomeasure and prevent no matter what circumstances that maight compromise government’sposition regarding the payment of public debt.This index has been proposed to be considered when analyzing the vulnerability ofemergent countries from the point of view of their public debt. As a result of the fact thatthere was no consensus among the international organisms regarding the accepted level ofthis index, at present there are only levels suggested by the following organisms: DebtRelief International and International Monetary Fund.Although the maximum margin of the index proposed by the InternationalMonetary Fund represented 30%, on 31.12.2010, the level of public debt represented 37.9%of the gross domestic product; such data emphasize the fact that the maximum margin ofthis vulnerability index has been surpassed; consequently, Romania’s fiscal conditionexhibits an alarming vulnerability. This development is shown in table 3.2.Table 3. 2. Public debt compared with gross domestic product during the period31.12.2001 – 31.12.2010Year Public debt Public debt GDP (million Public(million Lei) (million Euro) Lei)percentGDP (%)0 1 2 3 42001 33 817.8 12 129.3 116 768.7 29.02002 43 867.4 12 562.6 151 475.1 29.02003 51 363.2 12 492.0 197 600.0 26.02004 55 819.6 14 073.5 246 400.0 22.72005 59.010,9 16 048.2 288 176.0 20.52006 63340.8 18 730.5 342 400.0 18.52007 82 324.4 22 803.3 416 006.8 19.82008 109 795.1 27 534.4 514 654.0 21.32009 147 329.1 34 832.9 491 273.7 30.02010 194 459.2 45 434.3 513 641 37.9Source: Romania’s Ministry of Public Finances(http://www.mfinante.ro/rapoarteMFP.html)debt,of4. Analysis and findings regarding the dynamics of governmental public debtin Romania during the period 2001 – 2010During the analyzed period, Romania’s governmental public debt registered thefollowing evolution:220Revista Română de Statistică – Supliment Trim IV/2012

YearTable 4.1. Dynamics of governmental public debt duringthe period 2001 – 2010IndicesGovernmentalpublic debtInternalgovernmentalpublic debtTotal(million Lei)Externalgovernmentalpublic debtTotal(million Lei)Total(million Lei)0 1 2 32001 33 776.4 9 185.4 24 591.02002 43 793.8 11 761.2 32 032.62003 51 136.6 11 510.1 39 626.52004 55 147.3 14 411.4 40 735.92005 56 381.8 16 127.9 40 253.92006 59 868.5 25 827.3 34 041.22007 76 149.6 41 874.4 34 275.22008 100 556.4 61 523.1 39 033.32009 136 493.9 84 349.2 52 144.72010 182 510.3 98 180.3 84 330Source: Romania’s Ministry of Public Finances(http://www.mfinante.ro/rapoarteMFP.html)The analysis of the data displayed by Table 4.1 shows that during the studiedinterval, Romania’s governmental public debt increased by 5.4 times (from 33 776.4million Lei in 2001 to 182 510.3 million Lei in 2010). At the same time, one may noticethat the share of internal governmental public debt within the total governmental publicdebt increased from 27.2 % in 2001 to 53.8% in 2010, while the share of externalgovernmental public debt within total governmental debt decreased from 72.8% in 2001 to46.2% in 2010. Besides, one may also notice that beginning with 2007, they mostlyresorted to financial sources on internal market; the fact has as a result a reverse of theshare of the two components (namely, internal governmental public debt and externalgovernmental public debt) within the structure of governmental public debt. In other words,within the total amount of governmental public debt, the share of the State’s financialobligations due to the creditors on the internal market increased while the share of theState’s financial obligations due to the creditors on the external market decreased.Meanwhile, during the period 2001-2006 one may notice a relatively linealincrease of governmental public debt while beginning with 2007 it registered an acceleratedgrowth.We should also mention the fact that, according to our case study, the analysis ofRomania’s governmental public debt during the period 2001 – 2010 was done on the basisof the reports of the Ministry of Public Finances (drawn out according to the afferentlegislation) and of the data displayed by it.Revista Română de Statistică – Supliment Trim IV/2012 221

The reports regarding the gross domestic product represented for our case studypertinent findings referring to governmental public debt. Accordingly, during the period2001 - 2006 the share of governmental public debt within the gross domestic productregistered a continual decrease from a relative percent of 28.9% in 2001 to 17.4% in 2006.At the same time, one may notice that in 2010 the share of governmental public debt withinthe gross domestic product considerably increased, attaining at the end of the year 35.5% ascompared with 27.8% in 2009 and 19.5% in 2008.The increase of the share of governmental public debt within the gross domesticproduct has been determined not only by the increase in absolute value of governmentalpublic debt but also by a decrease of internal domestic product with 4.5% in 2009 ascompared with 2008, according to the data displayed by Table 4.2.Table 4.2. Dynamics of the share of governmental public debtwithin gross domestic productYearGovernmental publicGDPShare of governmentaldebt(million Lei) public debt within GDP (%)(million Lei)0 1 2 3=1/2*1002001 33 776.4 116 768.7 28.9%2002 43 793.8 151 475.1 28.9%2003 51 136.6 197 600.0 25.9%2004 55 147.3 246 400.0 22.4%2005 56 381.8 288 995.0 19.5%2006 59 868.5 344 651.0 17.4%2007 76 149.6 412 762.0 18.4%2008 100 556.4 514 654.0 19.5%2009 136 493.9 491 273.7 27.8%2010 182 510.3 513 641 35.5%Source: Romania’s Ministry of Public Finances(http://www.mfinante.ro/rapoarteMFP.html)The analysis of the displayed data shows that the relation between governmentalpublic debt and gross domestic product is placed much below the 60% level stipulated bythe Maastricht Treaty 8 ; accordingly, we may state that under the circumstances ofmaintaining a growth rhythm of governmental public debt that surpasses the rhythm ofeconomic growth, a phenomenon witnessed during the period 2007 – 2010, solvability riskincreases.At the end of 2010, governmental debt calculated according to the EU’ smethodology (SEC 95) represented 30.8% of GDP, a level clearly inferior to the 60%margin settled by the Maastricht Treaty; of it, the debt contracted on internal marketrepresented 15.6% while the debt contracted on external market represented 15.2% of GDP.8 Treaty of the European Union published by the Official Journal C191 dated July, 19th, 1992.222Revista Română de Statistică – Supliment Trim IV/2012

Under such circumstances, Romania has one of the most decreased indebt levels in the EU,after Estonia (6.6%), Bulgaria (16.6%) and Luxembourg (18.4%). Governmental publicdebt on December 31 st , 2010 represented 35.5% of GDP that shows an increase of 8.1% ofGDP as compared with the end of 2009.Romania’s public debt, still far from the level displayed above, registers anincreasing trend that nevertheless does not imply the development of the old-fashionedinfrastructure. The development of infrastructure, itself a forceful coordinate of anti-crisispolicies, would justify a temporary increase of public debt. Unfortunately, the mostinappropriate choice would be the one of growing public debt in order to cover the paymentof pensions and salaries in non-productive fields. According to certain authors, “Nationaldebt represents a burden for the future generations due to the decrease of capital stock. Thiswould mean that the government which registers such a deficit and creates higher debtleaves a part of the burden of current governmental expenditures to the future generations.”(Dornbusch and Fishcher, 1997). This topic deserves to be discussed as, in our country, theissue of the correctness criteria between generations has not yet been approached; it ispossible that the young people might inherit a tremendous public debt without being able toidentify the object of such a debt (highways networks, performing sanitary system, moderneducational system, modern public transportation means, etc.).The main threat is connected with the accumulation of certain budget deficits thatwould make the administration of public debt extremely difficult. In case of Romania, themajor issue is still the low degree of collecting budget incomes within GDP (28.8%) ascompared with the average of the European Union 27 (40.5% of GDP); moreover, there areno encouraging prognoses for this year or for the following years that might surpass 32% ofGDP.5. ConclusionsPublic debt is inadequately administered and confronts with the risk of becomingunsustainable; the result is the use of most budget resources in order to pay the services ofpublic debt; accordingly, the funds allocated for social and development programs areconsiderably decreased.Under such circumstances, the country’s Supreme Audit Institution (Romania’sAccounts Court) should play a consistent part with a view of improving the management ofpublic debt through analyzing the efficiency, efficacy, and economical character of theoperations connected with public debt. Although external public auditors cannot decideupon the policies regarding public debt, nevertheless, owing to their legal mandate, theycan promote the improvement of the existing legal framework and can makerecommendations to the managers of public debt with a view of adopting soundmanagement procedures that may decrease costs as well as the financial risks associatedwith public debt. In case the results of financial audit activities would be displayed beforethe Parliament in due time, then the Supreme Audit Institution could play a pro-active part;accordingly, the issues might be approached before the levels of public debt becomeunsustainable, so that the risky decisions that may determine an economic, fiscal orfinancial crisis are avoided.A wrong management of public debt is associated with major financial crises thatmay determine significant economic shortcomings. The crises regarding public debt havecome out when governments were forced to acknowledge the huge implicit contingentdebts associated with the governmental programs extended in order to support the creditschemes for homes and the guarantees of bank deposits.Revista Română de Statistică – Supliment Trim IV/2012 223

The Supreme Audit Institution that does not acknowledge the present risks of themanagement of public debt in its own country is vulnerable before a significant institutionalrisk. In case an unexpected public debt crisis turns out, the members of the Parliament mayrequire the Supreme Audit Institution the recent reports regarding the audit of themanagement of public debt that may contain references as to the possible connectionsbetween the inadequate management of public debt and the causes of the crisis, the effectsupon the indebting degree, and the measures envisaged in order to prevent the crisis.As a result, a better correlation between the fundamental macro-economic indices,including the pressure from international financial institutions, is required in the followingyears in order to provide the sustainability of governmental public debt and the credibilityof Romanian economy. Providing sustainability is to be achieved through mixed fiscal andbudget policies that should target the decrease of budget deficits, the increase of primarybudget surpluses, and those measures of monetary policy with a view of providingmonetary stability and the diminishing of governmental public debt.In the end, we may state that the results of our research may be turned to goodaccount and we recommend their implementation in the specific system as a guarantee ofthe truthfulness of our personal contribution and of the original character of the research;we are convinced that accordingly we are able to take part in the scientific production of thefield through which Romania may develop new international relations in the domain.References[1]. Călin M., Datoria publică, Didactic and Pedagogic Publishing House, Bucharest,(2006).[2]. Dafflon B., La Dette Publique, chapitre 11, (1995).[3]. Dascălu E.D., Datoria publică reglementare şi administrare în România, Didactic andPedagogic Publishing House, Bucharest, (2008).[4]. Dima, I.C. and Man M., Control de gestiune, AGIR Publishing House, Bucharest, 2003[5]. Dima I.C. (coordinator), Economia şi gestiunea firmei, Economic Publishing HouseBucharest, (1999).[6]. Dornbusch R. and Fischer S., Macroeconomia, Sedona Publishing House, Timişoara,(1997).[7]. Holt G.A., Risk associated to public governamental debt and their management.Annals of the University of Petrosani, Economics, 9(2), (2009), pp.13-20.[8]. Reinhart, Carmen M. and Rogoff. Kenneth S., The Aftermath of Financial Crises,American Economic Review, 99(2), (2009), pp. 466–472.[9]. Reinhart C.M. and Rogoff K.S., Growth in a Time of Debt, American EconomicReview: Papers & Proceedings, 100:2, (2010), pp.1–9.[10]. Sturzenegger F. and Zettelmeyer J., Debt defaults and lessons from a decade ofcrises, Cambridge, Massachusetts and London, The MIT Press, (2006).[11]. Guidelines for Public Debt Management – Amended, prepared by the Staffs of theInternational Monetary Fund and the World Bank, amended on December 9, (2003),pp. 8-9, 29-32.[12]. INTOSAI Public Debt Working Group - An Exercise of Reference Terms to CarryAut Performance Audit of Public Debt – November, (2007), pp. 25 – 27.[13]. http://www.mfinante.ro/rapoarteMFP.html (Accesed 15.12.2011).224Revista Română de Statistică – Supliment Trim IV/2012

Comparative Analysis of the Salary Revenues inRomania for the Period 2005-2009Lecturer Maria Cristina ŞTEFAN PhDValahia University of TârgovişteAbstractWe have chosen to approach this topic because analyzing the population’srevenues has always been an interesting topic, obviously reflecting the problems present ina state’s economy. Our paper’s goal is to present and analyze the population’s maincategories of revenues, and respectively to determine the real salary in Romania during theperiod 2005-2009. In order to attain this goal, we have structured the present paper intofour parts. In the first part, entitled “Theoretical aspects concerning the population’srevenue indexes”, we have presented certain theoretical notions concerning the revenuesand the population’s revenues indexes. In the second part, we analyzed the evolution of thepopulation’s revenues in Romania for the period 2005-2009, taking into account thedynamics of the population’s revenues and their structure, according to the differentcategories of households and revenue sources. In the third part, we have made apresentation of the salary revenues, as a main component of the population’s revenues;.The last part has been dedicated to the real salary evolution in Romania during the period2005-2009.Key words: population’s revenues, salary revenues, nominal salary, real salaryJEL Classification: E241. Theoretical aspects concerning the population’s revenue indexes1.1. Categories of revenuesThe population’s revenues represent material resources available for thepopulation at a certain moment or for a certain period of time. The social policies have aspecial interest in observing the population’s revenues, whose analysis determines thedirections of action, while for the individual these revenues represent a fundamental issue.Commonly, the term of revenues refers to monetary resources but, in a largersense, it also includes the non-monetary resources that the population can use. The totalrevenues obtained by the population come from several sources and can be grouped asfollows: 1 Financial revenues on sources (salaries, revenues obtained as selfemployed,sales, dole, pensions, child benefit, scholarships and othersocial protection benefits, revenues from properties, etc.); The equivalent value of different free or low price goods and servicesreceived as benefits, evaluated according to the provider’s sales price;1 Institutul Naţional de Statistică (The National Institute of Statistics), Anuarul Statistic al României2010 (Statistic Yearbook of Romania 2010), chap. IV: Precizări metodologice (Methodologicalobservations) p.134Revista Română de Statistică – Supliment Trim IV/2012 225

The equivalent value of the food and non-food products coming fromone’s own resources (production, stock, etc.) determined based on theaverage monthly prices of the respective products.The structure of the population’s revenues depends on the residentialenvironment (urban, rural) and of the status of the family head. Forinstance, in a family of employees, the salary revenues averagelyrepresent 70% of the total of the revenues, while in a family of peasants,the consumption of one’s own products is predominant (49%).1.2. Population’s revenue indexesThe national revenue is shared among those who produced it. This is why the firstones to receive a part of it are the employees, by means of the salaries paid to them. Theowners get the revenue obtained from indirectly productive activities. Other categories ofpersons get revenues coming from rents, such as the revenue from copyrights, the grossproceeds coming from rents of the persons living in personal homes (equivalent to the valueof an equivalent rent that should be paid if they had not owned the respective home).Among the indexes expressing the population’s revenues, the most used are: Nominal salary (respectively gross and net); Real salary; Real salary index.The notion of salary does not reflect all the types of revenues obtained by the workfactor in time; it appears as revenue going to the work factor under certain socioeconomicconditions. We are referring to those conditions in which the possessor of the work factorhas nothing else but his own physical and intellectual skills, his handicraft, his capacity towork, which represent his only source of revenue for subsistence. When all the otherproduction factors are absent, the individual lacks any means of subsistence. His onlyalternative is to rent his work force, the only good he possesses and which could providehim with revenue for subsistence.So, the salary can be defined as the sum of money received by the possessor of thework force in exchange for his contribution at the accomplishment of a certain work, in hisquality of production factor. 2The salary can be seen from two perspectives: 3 From the perspective of the economic activity process, which supposesthe combination of the production factors, the salary is a cost, acomponent of the total cost of the economic good obtained (for the firm); From the perspective of the goal of the economic activity, whichsupposes the selling of the goods on the market, the salary is the revenueof those who have contributed, through their work, to obtain the results(for the employees).The nominal salary represents the sum of money received by the employee fromthe firm he works for, and its size depends on: the socioeconomic situation; the demand-offer relation concerning the labor force; the salary-related policy according to national, regional, racial criteria etc.It has two forms: the nominal gross salary and the nominal net salary.2 M.C.Ştefan, Economie politică, Editura Bibliotheca, Târgovişte, 2009, p.1623 M. C. Ştefan , Economie politică, Editura Bibliotheca, Târgovişte, 2009, p.163226Revista Română de Statistică – Supliment Trim IV/2012

The nominal gross salary represents the total sums and advantages received by theemployee as a reward for the work he has accomplished and comprises:– salaries, respectively the rights in money and goods merited by theemployees for the work they carried out (also including the extra hours),according to the form of salary agreed upon, benefits and bonusesawarded as fixed percentage of the salary or as fixed sums, otheradditions to salaries according to the law, sums paid for time not worked(indemnities for vacations and studies, feasts and other free days, thesums paid from the salary budget for medical leaves), prizes, vacationbonuses and other sums paid from the salary budget according to theprovisions of the legislation in force or to collective labor contracts;– sums paid out of the net profit and from other funds (including theequivalent value of the lunch tickets).The nominal net salary is calculated by taking the following elements out of thegross salary: 4 – taxes;– the employees’ contribution to the unemployment insurance budget;– the individual contribution to state social insurances;– the employees’ contribution to social health insurances;Sn=Sg – (taxes +insurances)The real salary represents the quantity of goods and services that can be bought ata certain moment, using the nominal salary. It reflects the purchasing power of the nominalsalary and is calculated by making a connection between the nominal salary (Sn) and prices(P): 5Sr=SnPThe index of the real salary revenues is calculated as ratio of the average nominalnet salary earnings and the general index of the population’s consumption prices, expressedin percentages.ISr=ISn *100IP20092. Evolution of Romania’s population’s revenues, during the period 2005-The revenues represent one of the key-factors influencing the standard of living;the revenue distribution determines differences in the satisfaction of one’s needs,explaining the degree to which the subsistence of different population categories is assured.4 The National Institute of Statistics, Statistic Yearbook of Romania 2010, chap. IV Methodologicalobservations, p.1345 M. C. Ştefan, Economie politică, Editura Bibliotheca, Târgovişte, 2009, p.165Revista Română de Statistică – Supliment Trim IV/2012 227

The level, the evolution and the distribution of the population’s revenues can bereflected by indexes that resume the possibilities and respectively the resources availablefor the population to satisfy its needs. These indexes are: The sources forming the population’s revenues, respectively the laborrevenues and the redistribution elements. They allow one to obtain dataon the total revenues cashed in by the population, and on its availablerevenues, which gives the real measure of the households’ (families’)capacity to meet their consumption and savings needs;The households’ distribution according to their revenue level. Theindexes referring to the household distribution or to the individuals’distribution according to the revenue level give the possibility to evaluatethe degree of inequality as far as the level of the revenues obtained bydifferent population categories is concerned.Very important for the evaluations of the standard of living is the determination ofthe real revenues (salaries, pensions, etc.), in order to determine the cumulated effect of theevolution of both the nominal revenues and the consumption prices on the meeting of thepopulation’s needs.In order to illustrate this situation we will continue by presenting an analysis of theevolution of the monthly revenues of the population in Romania during the period 2005-2009.In the year 2005, the population’s revenues were of 1212.2 lei / month / household,compared to the year 2009, when their level was almost twice as much, attaining the sum of2316 lei / month / household.Table 2.1. Evolution of the total monthly revenues of the population’s householdsLei /month / householdYears 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009IndexesTotal revenues 12112.2 1386.3 1686.7 22131.7 2316.0(Data source: The National Statistics Institute, Romania’s Statistic Yearbook, 2006 and2010 editions)One can notice a continual increase of the population’s total revenues from anominal perspective (by comparison to the prices of each year) during the whole periodunder analysis (Table 2.1.), their level increasing of 1.91 times (+1103.8 lei / month /household). The biggest revenue increase took place in the year 2008 compared to 2007(+445 lei /month / household).The structure of the population’s revenues is the following: Financial revenues from different sources (salaries, other salary rights,revenues as self-employed, revenues from sales, dole, pension, childbenefit, scholarships and other social protection benefits, revenues fromproperties, etc.); The equivalent value of the free or low price goods and services receivedas benefits; The equivalent value of the food and non food products consumptionfrom one’s own resources.228Revista Română de Statistică – Supliment Trim IV/2012

Table 2.2. Evolution of the monthly revenue structure for the population’s households, onrevenue sources%Year2005 2006 2007 2008 2009IndexesTOTAL REVENUES 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0Financial revenues, out of which: 79.6 80.7 81.1 83.1 83.7Gross salary and other salary rights 47.3 49.3 51.3 52.1 50.9Revenues from agriculture 3.9 3.6 2.8 2.5 2.5Revenues from non-agricultural 3.3 3.1 2.8 2.9 2.8independent activitiesRevenues from social benefits received 20.4 19.9 19.8 21.6 24.2Revenues from property 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.3 0.2The equivalent value of the revenues in 3.1 3.3 3.1 3.1 3.6nature obtained by the employees andsocial benefits beneficiariesThe equivalent value of the 17.3 16.0 15.8 13.8 13.7consumption of agricultural productsfrom one’s own resources(Data source: The National Statistics Institute, Romania’s Statistic Yearbook, 2006 and2010 editions)Analyzing the data presented in Table 2.2., we can notice that during the period2005-2009, the main source of the population’s revenues is the financial revenues. Theirweight increased by 4.1% in the total revenues for the year 2009 compared to the year2005.The gross salaries and the other salary rights made up the most important source offinancial revenues, their ratio representing, in the year 2009, 50.9%, recording a 3.6%growth compared to the year 2006 (47.3%). In 2009, the ratio represented by salariesdecreases by 1.2% compared to the year 2008, when the maximum is reached (52.1%). Thesalary diminution was caused by the restructuring of the personnel receiving a salary,following the economic crisis.Other elements that are part of the salary revenues for the households are: Revenues from social benefits (24.2% for 2009 representing a 3.8%growth compared to 2005); Revenues from non-agricultural independent activities (2.8% in 2009,decreasing by 0.5% compared to 2005); Revenues from agriculture (2.5% for 2009, representing a decrease of1.4% compared to 2005);Revista Română de Statistică – Supliment Trim IV/2012 229

Revenues from properties, which decreased in 2009 by 0.2% compared to2005 (0.4%).Next, we have made a graphic representation of the structure of the total monthlyrevenues (fig. 2.1), and respectively the structure of the financial revenues (fig. 2.2.).Figure 2.1. Structure of the total monthly revenues of the population’s households, onrevenues sources17,320053,179,613,720093,6(Data source: The National Statistics Institute, Romania’s Statistic Yearbook, 2006 and2010 editions)Financial revenuesEquivalent value of the revenues in nature obtained by the employees and thesocial benefits beneficiariesEquivalent value of the consumption of agricultural products from one’s ownresourcesComparing the two graphs one can notice a modest increase of the equivalentvalue of the agricultural products consumption of 0.5% per month per household, comparedto the year 2009, when the ratio was of 3.6% per month per household, and a moresignificant increase of the financial revenues, of 4.1% per month per household, compared83,7230Revista Română de Statistică – Supliment Trim IV/2012

to the value of the year 2009 (83.7%), an increase realized following the increase of therevenues coming from gross salaries and other salary rights and of the revenues made fromsocial benefits.The equivalent value of the revenues in nature in 2009 decreased by 3.6%compared to the year 2005 (17.3%), which indicates the fact that the population hasdecreased its consumption out of its own resources. This decrease resulted in theencouragement of the import of agricultural products, which did not stimulate thepopulation – especially in the rural area – to work their land to assure their daily food.Figure 2.2. Structure of the financial revenues0,40,220,424,23,33,947,32,82,550,92005( Data source: The National Statistics Institute, Romania’s Statistic Yearbook, 2006 and2010 editions)2009From Figure 2.2., we can notice that raw salaries and other salary rights representthe largest share in the total financial revenues. In the year 2005, they represented 63% ofthe total financial revenues, and in 2009, 64%, yet, nevertheless, the recorded increase isnot very significant (+1%). The revenues from social benefits also record a growth from27% in the year 2005 to 30% in the year 2009, representing an important part of thefinancial revenues. In exchange, the revenues from agriculture, from nonagriculturalindependent activities and from property represent a very small share in thetotal financial revenues (less than 10%), while in the year 2009 they register a diminutionof respectively 0.5%, 1.4 and 0.2% compared to 2005. In order to better highlight theimportance of the salary revenues in the total financial revenues, we will present thefollowing table. So, the population’s total monthly revenue, on categories of households,according to the occupational status of the members of the household, looks as follows:according to Table 2.3., the salary revenues have recorded a continual growth, theirincrease in the year 2009 compared to the year 2005 being of 1.84 times. The largestrevenue increase took place in the year 2008 (505.2 compared to 2007). At the same time,one can notice that during all these years the employees had the highest monthly revenues.The households where the family head is either a farmer, or a pensioner recordedin 2009 revenues slightly above 1800 lei, compared to the year 2005, when they did not goRevista Română de Statistică – Supliment Trim IV/2012 231

over 1030 lei /month / household. For the farmers, the agricultural activity carried outindividually or in association by cultivating the land or by growing animals in thehousehold has become the main source of revenues.In exchange, the unemployed’s revenues have been, throughout the period underanalysis, half of the level of the employees’ revenues. In the year 2009, they were of 1609.2lei compared to the year 2005, when their value was 828 lei.Table 2.3. Total monthly salary revenues of the population on categories of householdsLei / month / householdYearsIndexes2005 2006 2007 2008 2009Employees 1681.8 1916.1 2347.2 2853 3105.1Farmers 1010.7 1077.8 1281.9 1594.5 1823Unemployed 828 1053.7 1136 1300.6 1609.2Pensioners 921.8 1044.8 1274.1 1704.4 1871.1Data source: The National Statistics Institute, Romania’s Statistic Yearbook, 2006 and2010 editionsIn order to notice the evolution of the monthly revenues of each category ofhouseholds during the period 2005-2009, we have realized the following graph:Figure 2.3. Evolution of the total monthly revenues on categories of households35003000250020001500100050002005 2006 2007 2008 2009SalariaţiAgricultoriŞomeriPensionari(Data source: The National Statistics Institute, Romania’s Statistic Yearbook, 2006 and2010 editions)3. Salary revenues, the main component of the population’s revenuesAs the financial revenues represent, as we have seen, the population’s main sourceof revenues, and, among them, the highest ratio goes to the salaries, we will continue bypresenting their dynamics for the period 2005–2009.232Revista Română de Statistică – Supliment Trim IV/2012

The main premise of an adequate life quality is the existence and the size of one’srevenue. The revenues’ dynamics in time and the modification of their real value have adecisive impact on the population’s standard of living.The salary earnings represent the sum owed and paid to the employee by theemployer for the work carried out.The size and the dynamics of one’s salary depend on the following factors: Cost of the labor resources – it refers to expenses for the production andreproduction of the labor force; Relation between labor offer and demand; if the offer of qualifiedworkers for the respective domain is unique, the salary will settle for ahigher level; Labor productivity – the higher it is, the higher the revenue gets, and theemployee receives a higher salary; The country’s economic development: its degree depends on countries,areas, recording a general tendency of increase, compared to the previousperiod; The mobility of the labor force – if the mobility is higher, a part of thelabor force from one region migrates to another, where it is better paid;the reduction of the labor force would oblige the employers to increasethe salaries; Discrimination in hiring can favor one group by comparison to others, asfar as the hiring, the salary or the capacity to practice a certain professionare concerned;The degree of organization of the labor unions;The legislation concerning the labor unions and their claims specific foreach country.Table 3.1. Evolution of the total monthly salary earnings of the population’s householdsbetween 2005 and 2009Lei / month / householdYears2005 2006 2007 2008 2009IndexesNominal gross salary earnings 968 1146 1396 1761 1845Nominal net salary earnings 746 866 1042 1309 1361(Data source: The National Statistics Institute, Romania’s Statistic Yearbook, 2006 and2010 editions)The average gross salary earnings in the year 2009 were of 1845 lei, recording agrowth compared to the year 2005, when its level was of 968 lei. The average net salaryearnings in the year 2009 were of 1361 lei, recording a growth as well compared to 2005,when they reached the value of 746 lei. We can note that the general tendency was one ofincrease during the entire period under analysis, in the case of both of these types ofsalaries. Based on the official data, we can notice that in the year 2008, a year of economicgrowth, both the average net salary earnings and the average gross salary earnings recordedthe highest economic growth (respectively +267 lei and +365 lei), compared to the year2007.Revista Română de Statistică – Supliment Trim IV/2012 233

Table 3.2. Nominal dynamics of the gross and net monthly salary earnings during theperiod 2005-2009%Years2005 2006 2007 2008 2009IndexesNominal gross salary Year 2005=100 100.0 118.3 144.2 181.9 190.5earningsNominal net salary Year 2005=100 100.0 118.7 139.6 175.4 182.4earnings(Source: the author’s processing of the data provided by the National Statistics Institute,Romania’s Statistic Yearbook, 2006 and 2010 editions)Table 3.2 shows that both the gross nominal salary and the net nominal salaryincreased continually, yet with different percentages. So, the gross salary recorded anincrease of 90.5% compared to the year 2005, and the net salary registered a growth of82.4% compared to 2005. At the same time, one can also notice the much lower dynamicsof the year 2009 compared to the other years, generated by the economic crisis.Figure 3.1. The dynamics of the total monthly salary earnings of the population’shouseholds for the period 2005-2009200015001000500Câştigul salarialnominal brutCâştigul salarialnominal net02005 2006 2007 2008 2009(Data source: The National Statistics Institute, Romania’s Statistic Yearbook, 2006 and2010 editions)Figure 3.1 highlights our previous statements even better. One can notice acontinual growth during the entire period under analysis, slightly more marked in 2008compared to 2007 and a slowdown of rhythm in the year 2009 compared to 2008, aslowdown produced by the economic crisis.The size and the dynamics of the total salary earnings is influenced by thedistribution of the employees on different activities of the national economy, as the salaries’level differs from one activity to the next.234Revista Română de Statistică – Supliment Trim IV/2012

Table 3.3. Average monthly nominal net salary earnings, on activities of the nationaleconomyLei /employeeYear2005 2006 2007 2008 2009ActivitiesTotal employees 746 866 1042 1309 1361Agriculture 531 622 748 914 1007Industry 735 825 975 1189 1300Constructions 628 710 881 1162 1069Commerce 575 651 823 1042 1047Transport and storage 957 1063 1244 1454 1518Financial operations and insurances 1163 1575 1997 2411 2159Education 829 1067 1175 1538 1596Health and social assistance 676 823 948 1266 1342(Data source: The National Statistics Institute, Romania’s Statistic Yearbook, 2006 and2010 editions)For the entire economy, the average monthly net salary earnings increased in 2009by 615 lei / employee compared to 2005. The largest growth of the average net monthlysalary in the year 2009 was recorded in the activity of financial operations and insurances(3109 lei / employee), being of 1044 lei / employee compared to the year 2005. Thisincrease is due to the marked development of this domain after 1990 and especially duringthe last decennium. The lowest average monthly net salary earnings for the same year wererecorded in agriculture (1007 lei / employee) namely 476 lei more / employee compared tothe year 2005, a diminution caused by the disastrous situation of the Romanian agriculture.Figure 3.2. Evolution of the average monthly net salary earnings, for the main economicactivities250020001500100050002005 2009AgriculturăIndustrieConstrucţiiComerţTransport şi depozitareIntermedieri financiare şiasigurareÎnvăţământ(Data source: The National Statistics Institute, Romania’s Statistic Yearbook, 2006 and2010 editions)Figure 3.2 highlights even better the different salary level for different activities ofthe national economy and their different evolution.Revista Română de Statistică – Supliment Trim IV/2012 235

4. Real salary evolution in Romania in 2005-2009The real salary earnings represent the purchasing power, expressing the usefulnessof the nominal net salary. The real or comparable value of the salary earnings is determinedthrough the elimination of the influence of the prices from the value of the nominal netsalary earnings.The level and the evolution of the real salary depend on 2 main factors:The size and the evolution of the nominal salary;The level and the evolution of the prices and tariffs for merchandisegoodsand services;The evolution of the real salary in relation to the nominal salary is determined asrelation between the nominal salary (SN) and the consumption prices index (P).When the nominal net salary grows faster than the consumption prices index, thereal salary grows, but not in the same proportion as the nominal salary. In the case of amore marked growth of the consumption prices in relation to the nominal salary, the realsalary decreases.Table 4.1. Real salary earnings index%YearsIndexesReal salary earnings indexYear 2005=1002005 2006 2007 2008 2009100.0 109.0 125.0 145.7 143.4(Data source: The National Statistics Institute, Romania’s Statistic Yearbook, 2006 and2010 editions)The real salary grew throughout the period under analysis, the level of the salary inthe year 2009 being 43.4% higher than in 2005; it results that the purchasing power grewby the same percentage. The real salary is directly proportional to the nominal salary andinversely proportional to the level of the prices. The real salary is very important for theemployee’s behavior at work.Figure 4.1. Evolution of the real salary index2502001501005002005 2006 2007 2008 2009IndicelesalariuluirealIndicelesalariuluinominalbrut(Data source: National Statistics Institute, Statistic Yearbook of Romania, 2006 and 2010editions)The graph presented above highlights the increase of the real and nominal grosssalary earnings for the period 2005-2009. Although both these indexes have recorded acontinual increase, the level of the real salary was, throughout the period under analysis,236Revista Română de Statistică – Supliment Trim IV/2012

half the level of the nominal gross salary. Another thing that can be noticed is that in 2009,the real salary goes down by 2.9%, while the nominal gross salary slows down its growthrhythm (+ 8.6% compared to 2008), as the negative effects of the economic crisis begin tobe felt.ConclusionsIn Romania, the level of the financial revenues of a household and their weight inthe total revenues are, on average, lower than in the developed countries. An importantshare of the revenues is covered by the equivalent value of the food and non-food productconsumption out of one’s own resources, a situation characteristic for the countries whosepopulations have a low standard of living. Next, we presented the main aspects related tothe population’s revenues in Romania in 2005-2009.The average level of the revenues in the year 2009 grew to 2316.0 lei /month /household, compared to 1212.2 lei month/ household in the year 2005. A main componentof the revenues is the financial revenues, which in 2009 represented no less than 83% of thepopulation’s revenues. Out of the revenue sources, the one with a major contribution in thepopulation’s total revenues were the gross salaries and other salary rights, so that in 2009,they got to representing 50.9% of the total revenues, compared to the year 2005, when theyused to represent 47.3% of the total revenues. The households that recorded the highestrevenue increase during the entire period under analysis are the employees’ households (+1423.3 lei /month / household), followed by the pensioners’ households (+ 949.9 lei/ month/ household). In the year 2009, the nominal gross salary earnings were of 1845 lei/month/employee, while the nominal net salary earnings were of 1361 lei/month/employee.The highest salaries in the year 2009 were recorded in the domain of financial operationsand insurance, followed by the activities from education and public administration.In 2009, the real salary increased by 43.4% compared to the year 2005, whichentails a similar growth of the purchasing power. Until 2008, one could notice a sustainedrhythm of the economic growth, which allowed the increase of the employees’ and thepensioners’ revenues. After 2008, as the economic crisis grew deeper, one could notice adecrease of the populations’ revenues’ growth rhythm, which interrupted the revenues’accelerated growth tendency from the years that preceded the crisis and determined revenuelosses for a growing number of unemployed people and for many employees and selfemployedpeople.References[1]. M.C. Ştefan , Economie politică (Political Economics), Editura Bibliotheca,Târgovişte, 2009[2]. C. Popescu, Economie (Economics), Editura Bibliotheca, Târgovişte, 2005[3]. V. Răducanu, Economie politică (Political Economics), Editura Bibliotheca,Târgovişte, 2005[4]. L. Popescu, Salarizarea personalului• Contabilitate, fiscalitate, legislatie• (Personnelsalary – Accountancy, taxation, legislation), Editura Tribuna Economică, Bucureşti,2007[5]. R.G. Lipsey, K.A. Chrystal, Principiile economiei (The principles of economics),Editura Economică, Bucureşti, 2002[6]. Anuarul Statistic al României (The Statistic Yearbook of Romania), 2006 and 2010editions[7]. Institutul Naţional de Statistică (The National Institute of Statistics)http://www.insse.ro/cms/rw/pages/index.ro.doRevista Română de Statistică – Supliment Trim IV/2012 237

Analytical and Numerical Models of SandwichPanel taking into Account Wrinkling PhenomenonJolanta BŁASZCZUKInstitute of Mathematics,Czestochowa University of Technology, Poland,jolanta.blaszczuk@im.pcz.plZbigniew POZORSKIInstitute of Structural Engineering,Poznan University of Technology, Poland,zbigniew.pozorski@put.poznan.plAbstractThe problem of local instability of the compressed facing of a sandwich panel isdiscussed in this paper. Proper estimation of wrinkling stress has become a challengingissue because of a strong tendency to optimize technical parameters and costs. The aim ofthe study is numerical and analytical analysis of bending of three-layer panels. Linearconstitutive equations and identical elasticity modules in tension and compression areassumed. In practice, wrinkling stress depends on many factors, usually neglected inanalytical solutions, though observed in experiments. In this paper we use numericalmethods and hence we can allow for the loss of face adhesion or anisotropy of the core.Created models are validated and calibrated by experimental results. The analyses arecarried out for various mechanical and geometrical parameters of the sandwich panel. Theinfluence of these parameters on structural response is studied. The range of applicabilityof classical theoretical models is discussed basing on numerical examples. The studypresented in the paper was inspired by sandwich panels producers, with the aim to increasesafety and economy.Key words: Sandwich panels, wrinkling stress, computational mechanics, localeffects.JEL Classification: C631. IntroductionSandwich panels are used in industry for many years. They are usually composedof three layers: rigid, external faces and a flexible core. Important role in the analysis of thestructures plays the contact between core and faces, evolution of the core parametersinduced by creep and influence of thermal excitations.Classical approach to the problem of sandwich panels was presented in [1,2]. Thesimplified theoretical models discussed in these papers have been widely used in anengineering practice. However, increasing industrial requirements enforce more precise andreliable analysis. Therefore, this issue has focused much attention in the last years andmany papers went up, where modern FEM models were proposed [4, 8].Apart from analytical and numerical solutions, real experiments still playimportant role to find behavior of those structures. They are one of the bases of thedetermination of the sandwich plate carrying capacity in EC standard [3]. Application ofthe modern experimental methods to the analysis of sandwich panels was presented in [5, 6,7].238Revista Română de Statistică – Supliment Trim IV/2012

The aim of the paper is to study the mechanism of local instability of compressedfacing of the bending panel [4,5]. Numerical and analytical models are created, validatedand calibrated by the analysis of numerical and experimental results. The models may beparticularly useful in evaluation of structure response subjected to, difficult to realizeexperimentally, thermal actions. Moreover, the models are used to the analysis of influenceof structure parameters on the value of wrinkling stress.2. Description of the problemThe paper is concerned on the problem of localized bending effects in sandwichpanels. Our aim is to estimate the influence of the main structural parameters, namely paneldepth, face thickness and core stiffness, on the wrinkling stress.Simply supported, one-span sandwich panel with the length L and the width B isconsidered. The structure consists of two thin and plain steel faces and flexible core. Bothfaces have the same thickness t, while depth of the core is D. The geometry of the structureis presented in Fig.1.Figure 1: Geometry of sandwich structureThe panel is supported at its two opposites ends. Width of the supports is equal tob. Support conditions refer to real structures. Therefore, it was assumed that a base platemodeled as rigid body is lying at both supports [8]. Reference points describing respectiveboundary conditions of the whole support are localized in the middle of contact surfacebetween lower face sheet and the supporting plate. For the left supporting base plate (detailA in Fig. 1) all three translations and the rotations with respect to axes x and z are equal tozero. Unconstrained rotation with respect to the axis y is assumed. The right base plate hasadditionally the possibility of the translation in the direction x. The sandwich panel issubjected to static, uniform distributed suction load on the lower facing.The main attention in the analysis was focused on the behavior of the structure inbending. The problem of stress concentration and complex interactions between facings andthe core were observed. The importance of the problems of debonding and localinstabilities of the structure was emphasized in papers [6].3. Analytical modelIn the classical theory of sandwich panels all materials are assumed as linearelastic, homogenous and isotropic. The external facings are parallel. The Young modulus ofthe core is very low. Hence, normal stresses are negligible and shear stresses are constant inthe core part. Usually, the sandwich panel is analyzed as a beam type structure.The problem of local instability of compressed facing grounded on the elasticRevista Română de Statistică – Supliment Trim IV/2012 239

foundation can be described by the differential equationIVIIIIBF1 w ( x) P w( x) w0( x) k w(x) q(x)(1).The symbols B F1 , w, k, w 0 and q denote bending stiffness of the facing, transversedisplacement, stiffness of foundation, initial displacement and transverse loading,respectively [2]. If we neglect the initial displacement field w 0 , the solution of (1) can bewritten in a simplified form: x (2)w( x) w1 sin , a where the coefficient w 1 corresponds to displacement amplitude and a is a half length ofdeformation wave.Assuming that the wave length decrease proportionally to the stiffness k with theproportionality factor f 1 = a·k, a normal (compressive) force can be expressed as43 BF1 f1a(3)P .2 2a Looking for minimum value of the force P we stipulate dP/da = 0 and thus arriveat41/ 3(4) 2B F1a . f1Using (3) and (4), f 1 and P can be expressed as:1/ 4 1/ 4 3 / 4f1 2 B K ,(5) 1/ 2 1/ 2 1/ 2P 32 B K . (6)Introducing a function (or in the simplest case - a scalar) f 2 , which is scaling arelation between the Young modulus E c of the core, depth of the core D and stiffness of thefoundation k:E(7)2k c f 2 ,Dthe wrinkling stress is finally obtained asf B E(8)P 3 2 2 F1ccr ,t 2 t Dwhere t is the thickness of the compressed facing. Please note that the term of bendingstiffness B F1 =E F I F1 contains the Young modulus of the facing material E F and the momentof inertia of the facing I F1 .The key point is to find the form of f 2 . Generally, f 2 may depends on variousgeometrical and mechanical parameters. In the simplest case, this term is assumed as ascalar, which is calibrated to comply with experimental results.4. Numerical analysisNumerical models were prepared in ABAQUS system environment. The span andwidth of analyzed sandwich structure are L = 4.40 m and B = 0.50 m. The following depthsof the core were assumed D = 0.079 m, 0.099 m and 0.119 m. The width of supportingplates was b = 0.10 m. Thickness of facings was equal to t = 0.4 mm, 0.5 mm or 0.6 mm.240Revista Română de Statistică – Supliment Trim IV/2012

Steel facings were assumed as elastic - ideal plastic material with the Youngmodulus E F = 210 GPa, the Poisson ratio ν F = 0.3 and yield stress f y = 280 MPa. Facingswere modeled using four node, doubly curved shell elements SR4 with dimensions 2x2 cmor 3x3 cm.The core of the panel was modeled using eight node linear brick elements C3D4.The core was divided into two layers of elements. The following parameters of the corematerial were assumed: ν C = 0.05 and E C = 8 MPa, 6 MPa or 4 MPa. The isotropic andhomogeneous core material was assumed at the first stage of the study.Between the compressed facing and the core, a layer of interface is introduced.The interface is modeled using COH3D8 8-node, 3D cohesive elements. Interactionsbetween all parts are assumed as TIE type, which makes equal displacements of nodes. Theoption of leaving the rotations free was chosen.Elasticity uncoupled law for cohesive material of the interface is defined by the relationtn Knn0 0 (9)n ts 0 Kss0s,t t0 0 Kttt where t n is normal traction (stress) and t s , t t are shear tractions. Corresponding nominalstrains are defined as ε n = δ n /T 0 , ε s = δ s /T 0 , ε t = δ t /T 0 using separation δ and constitutivethickness of cohesive element T 0 .Quadratic nominal stress criteria was used in the model for damage initiation:222(10) tn t stt 10 0 0 , tn ts ttwhere . is Macaulay bracket with the usual interpretation.Damage evolution is displacement type with linear softening. The stresscomponents of the traction-separation model are affected by the damage according to:(11)1 Gtn t n 0tn t n otherwisets 1 Gts ,t 1G t tt .The scalar damage variable G represents the overall damage in the material. Theterms with overbar are the stress components predicted by the elastic traction-separationbehavior for the current strains without damage. To describe the evolution of damage, aneffective displacement is introduced:2 2 2(12)m n s t.For linear softening, the damage variable G has the following form:f max 0mm m(13)G max f 0 , mmmRevista Română de Statistică – Supliment Trim IV/2012 241

maxwhere m refers to the maximum value of the effective displacement attained during the0floading history, m refers to damage initiation and m corresponds to full damage.5. Comparison of resultsThe influence of mesh size on the numerical results was the first problem analyzedin numerical simulations. Three examples of the panel with the parameters D = 0.119 m,t = 0.5 mm, E C = 8 MPa and the mesh size of compressed facing 0.03 m, 0.02 m, 0.01 mwere analyzed. It occurred that for various sizes of FEM elements, wrinkling stresses weredifferent. It was presented in the Table 1.Table 1 : The influence of the mesh size on the wrinkling stressMesh size[m]Wrinkling stress[MPa]0.03 78.950.02 71.910.01 71.71Above results indicate that the size of the mesh may highly influences numericalsolution. The mesh size should be considered in the context of wave length of wrinkledfacing. If the mesh is coarse and not appropriate, the wrinkling stresses are overestimated.Evert and al. in [9] recommend the suitable mesh size about 1/8 of the length a, howeverthis requirement is difficult to fulfill because of huge number of FEM elements.In the following examples the mesh size 0.02 m was used. The results received forvarious geometrical and mechanical parameters are presented in the Table 2.Table 2 : Wrinkling stress for various structure parameters1 2 3 4 5 6Example D [m] t [mm] E c [kPa] Wrinkling stress σ cr[MPa] (FEM)σ cr / f 2 [MPa](analyticalsolution)Ex. 1 0.119 0.50 8000 71.91 51.50Ex. 2a 0.119 0.50 6000 60.41 44.56Ex. 2b 0.119 0.50 4000 55.78 36.38Ex. 3a 0.099 0.50 8000 71.25 56.41Ex. 3b 0.099 0.40 8000 67.02 50.45Ex. 3c 0.099 0.60 8000 85.99 61.79Ex. 4 0.079 0.50 8000 86.09 63.15Numerical and analytical results demonstrate considerable similarity. Relationsbetween mechanical parameters and stresses seem reasonable. Higher wrinkling stresses arereceived for smaller core depth and higher stiffness of core and facing. [10] The results incolumns 5 and 6 are in good agreement for the value of f 2 equal to 1.40. The agreement isalso in the sense of wave length. The value a = 0.0424 m received in the example 1 usingupdated analytical model is confirmed by the distance between wrinkles visible in Fig. 2.These results can be compared to the wrinkling stress calculated according to theequation given by Stamm and Witte in [2] .819 3G E E ,(14)cr0c c F242Revista Română de Statistică – Supliment Trim IV/2012

or according to corrected equation, where initial imperfections are taken into account: 0.53cr GcEcEF,(15)In the examples 1, 3a, 3b, 3c and 4, the stresses (14) and (15) are equal to 152.06MPa and 92.83 MPa, respectively. Furthermore, using (14) and (15) the same results wouldbe obtained in case of micro-profiled facing. It is because in these equations wrinklingstress doesn't depend on facing stiffness. [11]Our recently conducted experimental tests indicate that neither analytical norpresented numerical model describe properly the phenomenon of the local instability of thesandwich panel.Figure 2: Local effects in bending of sandwich panel: normal stresses and wrinkles inthe steel upper facing in direction x6. Concluding remarksThe numerical and analytical analysis as also laboratory tests proved that bendingof the sandwich panels and occurring local effects are a complex problem. Variousparameters have influence on the results, namely: geometrical values as panel depth andfacing thickness and material features of the core and facings. The presented examplesverify classical approach to the problem of wrinkling stress of the sandwich panel anddemonstrate that hitherto existing in engineering practice simplifications can lead toconsiderable errors.Proposed analytical approach express the wrinkling stress as a function of the mostimportant parameters of sandwich structure. In terms of quality, the analytical andnumerical solutions are in good agreement. In spite of this, the existing models should beRevista Română de Statistică – Supliment Trim IV/2012 243

improved with respect to experimental results. Developed models may be particularlyuseful in evaluation of the structure response subjected to the difficult to realizeexperimental actions and can significantly minimize number of laboratory tests and costs.References[1] H. G. Allen, Analysis and design of structural sandwich panels, Pergamon Press,Oxford, 1969.[2] K. Stamm, H. Witte, Sandwichkonstruktionen. Berechnung, Fertigung, Ausführung (inGerman). Springer-Verlag, Wien, Austria, 1974.[3] EN 14509 Self-supporting double skin metal faced insulating panels - Factory madeproducts - Specifications, 2010.[4] O. T. Thomsen, Y. Frostig, Localized bending effects in sandwich beams: photoelasticinvestigations versus high-order sandwich theory results. Composite Structures, 37,97-108, 1997.[5] Y. Frostig, On stress concentration in the bending of sandwich beams withtransversely flexible core, Composite Structures, 24, 161-169, 1993.[6] W.C. Kim, C. K. H. Dharan, Face sheet debonding criteria for composite sandwichpanels under in-plane compression, Eng. Fract. Mech., 42, 4, 643-652 1992.[7] Boyle, M. P., Experimental, numerical and analytical result for buckling andpostbuckling of orthotropic rectangular sandwich panels, Compos. Struct., 52, 3/4, pp.375-380, 2001.[8] Heder, M., Buckling of sandwich panels with different boundary conditions: acomparison between FE-analysis and analytical solutions, Compos. Struct., 19, 4, pp.313-332, 1991.[9] Evert, E., Banke, F., Schultz, U., Wolters, M., Untersuchung zum Knittern vonSandwichelementen mit ebenen und gesickten Deckschichten, Stahlbau, 70, 7, pp.453-463, 2001.[10]Dima, I.C. Using multiservice of industrial management. Czestochowa, Poland:Wydawnictwa Wydzialu Zarzadzania Politechniki Czestochowskiej (2010).[11]Dima, I.C., Marcincin, I.N., Grabara, J., Pachura, P., Kot, S., & Man, M. Operationalmanagement systems of the production achieved in flexible manufacturing cells.Presov, Slovakia: Techinical University of Kosice (2011).244Revista Română de Statistică – Supliment Trim IV/2012

Development Regions in Romania During theEconomic CrisisMihaela SAVUioneci_mihaela@yahoo.comGeorgiana MÎNDRECIg_mindreci@yahoo.comConstantin Brâncoveanu Univesity, PiteştiAbstractThe development regions of Romania are characterised by significant differencesbetween them, particularly for the indicators analysed in this paper. The analysis includedrepresentative indicators for economy, population, employment and education, aiming atexamining the current state and the future development opportunities starting from thehuman factor. However, the findings provided by the Eurostat statistical office are notencouraging for our country, in the context in which 7 of the 8 regions are found in the first20 poorest regions of the EU.Key words: regional development, economy, population, education, labourmarketJEL Classification: F631. IntroductionAdministratively, Romania is structured into 8 regions, each including severalcounties (South Muntenia region, South West Oltenia region, South East region, Westregion, Bucharest-Ilfov region, North West region, North East region, Central region. Thedifferences between these regions exist and they are presented annually by statisticians withthe help of the literature in the field. In this paper we want to analyse the current state of theregions of our country, so we shall use official data recorded in the Eurostat regionalyearbook 2012 and the site of The Ministry of Regional Development and Tourism.Through this analysis we can emphasise whether the current economic crisis has affectedthe regions, but especially the meaning of this influence.From the official information we decided to compare and present data oneconomy, population, labour market and education for the development regions inRomania. In the Eurostat regional yearbook 2012 there is shown a series of elementsforming the whole picture of the regions, but our choice highlights the current state of theeconomy and its supporting sources (population, labour market and education).2. ContentOur country’s regions are relatively similar in size, except for the Bucharest - Ilfovregion, but which manages to position itself first in terms of economy and labour marketrelated aspects (the comparison covers only the regions of Romania). The largest region isthe North Eastern region, and it manages to maintain its supremacy even when it comes tothe number of people. The population density is much higher in the Bucharest - Ilfov regionRevista Română de Statistică – Supliment Trim IV/2012 245

due to the large number of the population and the small size as compared to the otherregions, but especially since we are referring to the capital of our country, and suchpopulation clusters are natural.Table no. 1. Demographic indicators specific to the regions of RomaniaRegion Area PopulationThousandsinhabitantsNorthWest34159 2744 SouthCentre 34100 2524 BucharestIlfovNorth 36850 3734 SouthEastWestRegion Area PopulationThousandsinhabitants34453 3258Muntenia1821 220829212 2306OlteniaSouth 35762 2848 West 32034 1930EastSource: www.mdrt.roEurostat regional yearbook 2012 offers data on the Gross domestic product perinhabitant in purchasing power standard, determined as a percentage of the EU average(27), average considered as representing 100. Observing this indicator, obviously theBucharest - Ilfov region exceeds by 11% the European average, but it is especially at a longdistance when compared to the other regions. The next region records 52% - the Westregion representing half the performance of the capital and of the surrounding area. Thelowest value was recorded in the North East region being of 29%.Table no. 2. Gross domestic product per inhabitant in purchasing power standardRegion GDP Region GDPNorth 43 South 40WestMunteniaCentre 46 Bucharest 111IlfovNorth 29 South 36EastWestOlteniaSouth 38 West 52EastSource: http://epp.eurostat.ec.europa.eu (Eurostat regional yearbook 2012)In early 2012, the Eurostat statistics office presented a report providinginformation on the level of poverty in the EU region and the results are not flattering at allfor our country. 6 of the 8 development regions are among the 10 poorest regions of theEU, and 7 of them are found in the first 20 poorest regions. The regions that make up thetop of the 20 poorest EU regions are from the following countries: Bulgaria, Romania,Poland and Hungary. It should be noted that Bulgaria and Romania have developmentregions in the first half of the 20 poorest regions ranking, while Poland and Hungaryoccupy the second half. The comparison of the regions in Romania can also be achieved246Revista Română de Statistică – Supliment Trim IV/2012

with the richest region in the EU, according to the GDP per capita, that is with London’sfinancial district which records 332% of the EU average. Quite distant from the first placeis found Luxembourg with 266% and Brussels with 223%.From the indicators specific to the labour market we analysed the employment rate(20 - 64) and the unemployment rate among young people (15 – 24 years old). Theemployment rate demonstrates the superiority of the Bucharest - Ilfov region as comparedto the other regions. However, it should be noted that in most regions the employment rateexceeds 62%, only in the Central region and in the East South region we encounter ratesbelow 60%. These values refer to 2010, allowing us to believe that by 2020 our country canmeet the target of 70% employment rate, set by the Europe 2020 Strategy. At EU level thehighest rate of employment is found in the Czech Republic with 83.3%.Youth unemployment rate is an indicator that allows us to see how well youngpeople integrate into the labour market after they have completed a certain level ofeducation. The values recorded are different from what we have seen so far, since the topranking of the Romanian regions changes significantly. The first place is occupied by theNorth East region at a rate of 13.2%, followed by the South West Oltenia region with18.2% and the Northwest region with 18.9%. The Bucharest - Ilfov region ranks fifth, witha youth unemployment rate of 20.3%. The first position is occupied by the North Eastregion due to the fact that it is ranked on the 2 nd place for the employment rate with 66.9%,but also due to the labour migration. At EU level, the first place is occupied by a Spanishregion with a youth unemployment rate of 60.2%.RegionTable no. 3. Indicators specific to the labour marketEmploymentrateYouthunemploymentrateRegionNorthWest62,3 18,9 SouthMunteniaCentre 57,9 32,7 BucharestIlfovNorth 66,9 13,2 SouthEastWestEmploymentrateYouthunemploymentrate64,5 29,268 20,363,8 18,2OlteniaSouth 59,6 27 West 62,7 19,6EastSource: http://epp.eurostat.ec.europa.eu (Eurostat regional yearbook 2012)The changes in the current period offer us information about the labour of thefuture and about how important training is both in the required cycles, but especiallylifelong training. Based on this, but especially on the importance of the human factor on thelabour market and implicitly in the economic development, we believe that the attentionthat must be paid to education should be more relevant to all levels of education.From the indicators specific to education we chose: Participation rates of fouryear-olds in pre-primary and primary education (1); Total number of students in tertiaryeducation (2), as a percentage of the population aged 20-24 years; Persons aged 25-64 yearswith tertiary education (3) attainment.Revista Română de Statistică – Supliment Trim IV/2012 247

As it can be seen from Table No. 4, the concentration of the ones who attend auniversity in the Bucharest - Ilfov region is generated by the existence of a renowneduniversity centre in the Romanian capital. In a similar way, we can see higher rates in areaswhere there are well-known universities in our country; this is proof that these universitiesare still searched for, despite the alternatives that have appeared in the university field since1989.For participation rates of four year-olds in pre-primary and primary education theregions of Romania record values above 66%, but they are still small given the context inwhich the EU rates vary mainly between 90% and 100%.Table no. 4. EducationRegion 1 2 3 Region 1 2 3North 83,1 54,2 13,1 South 78,9 19,6 10,1WestMunteniaCentre 84,5 60,1 11,7 Bucharest 66,4 202,9 28,6IlfovNorth 75,4 33,9 11,6 South 84,5 35,2 13,5EastWestOlteniaSouth 77,8 31 10,5 West 79,3 60,2 14,3EastSource: http://epp.eurostat.ec.europa.eu (Eurostat regional yearbook 2012)3. ConclusionsThe differences between Romania’s regions are more than obvious, but there isgrowth potential, perhaps not at the level of the richest EU regions. Firstly, Romania mustset its priorities in securing the future development of these regions and, secondly, toestablish realistically attainable targets, based on the current evidence available in eachregion, without letting ourselves be influenced by what is happening in Europe. It is morethan obvious that we should follow the pace of development of the other regions in the EU,but not to set levels impossible to reach in Romania.All these statements are based on the figures presented above, and especially onthe main objectives of the regional development policy established by the Ministry ofRegional Development and Tourism.References[1]. Ioneci M., 2010, Aspecte ale dezvoltării regionale în România, Management agricol.Lucrări ştiinţifice, seria I, vol. XII (1), Editura Agroprint, Timişoara, p. 178[2]. Roşca E. (coord.), 2006, „Dezvoltarea regională în contextul integrării în UniuneaEuropeană”, Editura Economică, Bucureşti, p. 325[3]. Anuarul regional Eurostat 2012[4]. http://epp.eurostat.ec.europa.eu[5]. http://www.mie.ro[6]. http://europa.eu/pol/reg/index_ro[7]. www.mdrt.ro/dezvoltare-regională/programul-operaţional-regional-2007-2013/-2975248Revista Română de Statistică – Supliment Trim IV/2012

Accounting Regulations for Goodwill at aNational, European and International LevelRaluca Valeria RAŢIU, PhD StudentBabeș-Bolyai University,raluca.ratiu@econ.ubbcluj.roAbstractThe main objective of this article is to evaluate the degree of formal harmonizationof the Romanian accounting regulations with the International Financial ReportingStandards with regard to goodwill, as it appears in the consolidated financial situations.This study measures the degree of harmonization using the Jaccard Coefficient. The resultsshow that the Romanian regulations are partially compliant with the internationalregulations.Key words: harmonization, Jaccard coefficient, goodwillJEL Classification: M41IntroductionAccounting is shaped by economic and political forces. Every day we observe theglobalization of both economy and politics which inevitably leads to a higher degree ofintegration of the financial reporting standards both in theory and in practice. “Most marketand political forces will remain local for the foreseeable future, so it is unclear how muchconvergence in actual financial reporting practice will (or should) occur” (Ball, 2006).The globalization process brings huge changes and challenges to accounting. Oneof them, mentioned in the last period by international accounting researchers as being themost important and interesting at the same time, is the accounting harmonization processwith all implications, contingencies, barriers and advantages involved.The accounting harmonization following the adoption of the IFRS regulationsseems to be one of the most controversial topics in recent literature, thus we consider thatresearchers have come across a generous subject to debate upon.Romania is a country with a transition economy and as Albu et all (2010) mention,Romania is a “particularly interesting case study of the process of accounting change, in ourparticular interest the harmonization with international accounting standards. Like othercountries from East and Central part of Europe, Romania, has been confronted withsignificant changes and challenges regarding the political, social and economic frameworkwhen they changed from a centralized national system to a decentralized one”.Harmonization and convergence became some of the most debated topics by theresearchers in the past years. Our study evaluates Romanian and international accountingregulations which concern the topic of goodwill. Thus, we measure the degree ofharmonization between Romanian and international regulations, using Jaccard coefficients.To meet our objective we consider it necessary to make a comparison betweencommonalities and differences of regulations regarding goodwill, by analysing IFRS 3„Business Combinations”, FAS 142 „Goodwill and other intangible assetts”, the 4th and7th ECC Directives, and OMFP 3055/2009.Revista Română de Statistică – Supliment Trim IV/2012 249

The reminder of the paper is structured as follows: next we will review theliterature regarding our subject of study, the third part comprises of the researchmethodology used, the fourth part consists of analytical incursion of regulations, the fifthpart is the actual harmonization measurement, and last we focus on conclusions and futuredevelopments.1. Literature reviewBall (2006) observes “that extraordinary success has been achieved in developinga comprehensive set of ‘high quality’ IFRS standards, in persuading almost 100 countries toadopt them, and in obtaining convergence in standards with important non-adopters(notably, the US). “On the ‘con’ side”, he envisages “problems with the current fascinationof the IASB (and the FASB) with ‘fair value accounting’”.In 2001 Saudagaraz and Shahrokh M created a comprehensive study regarding theadvantages and the threats regarding the harmonization of the accounting system. Takinginto consideration primary that IFRS became mandatory in European Union countries forlisted companies and secondly that listed companies are usually multinationals, the conceptof transferability across cultures becomes a research subject for accounting harmonizationresearchers.Reazaee et all (2010) discuss the convergence in accounting standards from the“perspectives of academicians and practitioners regarding convergence to a set of globalaccounting standards”. They conclude that “effective convergence to a set of globallyaccepted accounting standards would be beneficial to preparers, users, auditors, analysts,and standard setters. Convergence in accounting standards can require extensive andpossibly costly changes to the standard-setting infrastructure and enforcement process inthe US and other countries, and will also require proper training for management, auditors,and investors”.How are IFRSs applied in different countries? This is a question to which manyresearches tried to find answers.“The compulsory use of IFRS for the consolidated statements of listed companiesin the EU and elsewhere, and the convergence of IFRS with US GAAP, might imply theend of 'international accounting' as an important field of study. However, there are motivesand opportunities for international differences of practice to exist within IFRS usage. Someof the original motives for international accounting differences may still be effective in anIFRS context, though in different ways. The opportunities for different IFRS practices aredivided into eight types” under Nobes and for each type he proposes hypotheses related,and some ways of testing them. Nobes (2006) notes “some implications of the existence ofdifferent national versions of the IFRSs”.Ball (2006) considers that there will inevitably “be substantial differences amongcountries in implementation of the IFRSs, which now risk being concealed by a veneer ofuniformity. The notion that uniform standards alone will produce uniform financialreporting seems naive”.Other authors as well conducted national research about accounting harmonizationwith IFRS: in Turkey (Yalkin et al., 2008 and Alp and Ustundag, 2009) in Greece ( Ballaset al., 2010) in Romania ( Feleaga et al., 2009, Filip A, 2010 Albu et al., 2010, Mustata,2008).The measurement systems for accounting harmonization include four steps, ashighlighted by Mustaţă R., 2008: The need of harmonization Formal harmonization250Revista Română de Statistică – Supliment Trim IV/2012

Material harmonizationSpontaeous harmonization.Our study focuses on aspects regarding formal harmonization.2. MethodologyThe hypothesis we test in this study is the following: H1 Romanian accountingregulations are highly harmonized to the IFRS regulations, with regard to the formalaspect of harmonization.To verify our hypothesis we chose to use Jaccard coefficients in order to make anaccurate measurement.The degree of formal or de jure accounting harmonization, can be quantified usingtwo systems as presented by Mustaţă R., 2008:Distance measurement based systems andCorrelation and association measurement based systems.The second category, correlation and association measurement based systems, usesthree types of coefficients: Spearman, Pearson and Jaccard coefficients (Mustaţă R., 2008).In order to measure the similarity between two sample sets, we can use the Jaccardcoefficient. This coefficient is defined as the size of the intersection of the two sets dividedby the size of the union of the same sets.If we have two objects that we call A and B and each of these objects has n binaryattributes, than the Jaccard coefficient is a very useful tool to measure how much A and Boverlap with their atributes. Because A and B have binary atributes, their values can eitherbe 0 or 1. So the total number of combinations of atributes can be represented as follows:M11 specifies the number of atributes where both A and B have the value 1. In a similarfashion M01 represents the number of atributes in which the atributes of A is 0 and theatributes of B is 1, M10 is the total number of atributes in which the atributes of A is 1 andthe atributes of B is 0 and last M00 is the total number where both the atributes of A and Bhave the value 0. Since these are all the possible combinations it means that M11 + M01 +M10 + M00 = n. In this scenarios the Jaccard coefficient is defined as:We can also define the Jaccard distance as a complementary to the Jaccardcoefficient, so we subtract the Jaccard coefficient from 1. This distance is useful to measurethe differences between sample sets. Since 1 can be defined as the size of the union dividedby the size of the union, then the Jaccard distance will become the difference of the size ofthe union and the size of the intersection and all this divided by the size of the union.In the case of binary attributes the Jaccard distance becomes:Revista Română de Statistică – Supliment Trim IV/2012 251

“One limit of using the Jaccard coefficients is that it does not consider situations such as amethod or accounting treatment is absent from both regulations tested or if theirimplementation is practical and possible” (Mustata et al., 2011). In the case we study, noneof these limitations affect our measurement, therefore we consider our result to be accurate.In our study we chose to measure the degree of formal harmonization of theRomanian accounting regulations to the International Financial Reporting Standards, for2008 to 2011, regarding the subject of goodwill, as it appears in consolidated finncialstatements. The reason why we chose this subject is that goodwill representes the topic ofresearch for our doctoral dissertaion. For the choice of timeline, 2008-2011, we wanted tocontinue a study made by Mustata (2008) who made a similar analysis for the timeline of1973-2007.3. Accounting treatment for goodwill at an international, european andnational levelIn order for our study to be complete, before making the measurements weconsider it necessary to analyse how the compared terms are viewed by each of thereferentials mentioned above.3.1. International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS)3.1.1. Goodwill from a business combinationGoodwill arising from a business combination is determined as: “considerationtransferred to obtain control plus amount of non-controlling interest (using either option)plus fair value of previously-held equity interest less fair value of the identifiable net assetsof the acquiree (100%)”, see paragraph 32, under IFRS 3 Revised 2008 (IFRS 3R).IFRS 3(2004) compares for the calculation of goodwill two numbers, “being theexcess of the cost of the business combination over the acquirer's interest in the net fairvalue of the identifiable assets, liabilities and contingent liabilities. In a businesscombination achieved in stages, goodwill was determined as the sum of goodwill arising ateach stage of the acquisition”.3.1.2. Negative goodwill or a gain from a bargain“A bargain purchase is a business combination in which the net fair value of theidentifiable assets acquired and liabilities assumed exceeds the aggregate of theconsideration transferred, the non-controlling interests and the fair value of any previouslyheldequity interest in the acquired company. A bargain purchase might happen, forexample, in a business combination that is a forced sale in which the seller is acting undercompulsion. However, the recognition and measurement exceptions for particular items, asdiscussed in chapter 8, might also lead to the recognition of a gain (or a change in theamount of a recognized gain) on a bargain purchase”, under paragraph 35 of IFRS 3R.3.1.3. Accounting for goodwillUnder paragraph 48 of the IFRS 3R, “the acquirer recognizes an increase(decrease) in the provisional amount recognized for an identifiable asset (liability) bymeans of a decrease (increase) in goodwill. However, new information obtained during themeasurement period may sometimes result in an adjustment to the provisional amount ofmore than one asset or liability. For example, the acquirer might have assumed a liability topay damages related to an accident in one of the acquired company’s facilities, part or all ofwhich are covered by the acquired company’s liability insurance policy. If the acquirer252Revista Română de Statistică – Supliment Trim IV/2012

obtains new information during the measurement period about the acquisition-date fairvalue of that liability, the adjustment to goodwill resulting from a change to the provisionalamount recognized for the liability would be offset (in whole or in part) by a correspondingadjustment to goodwill resulting from a change to the provisional amount recognized forthe claim receivable from the insurer”.At the beginning of each reporting year, and also at the end, the company whichacquired another company has the obligation of disclosing the amount of carrying goodwillfor the next period. Deloitte specialists have shown separately the following items: “ thegross amount and accumulated impairment losses at the beginning of the reporting period;additional goodwill recognized during the reporting period, except goodwill included in adisposal group that, on acquisition, meets the criteria to be classified as held for sale inaccordance with IFRS 5 Non-current Assets Held for Sale and Discontinued Operations;adjustments resulting from the subsequent recognition of deferred tax assets during thereporting period in accordance with IFRS 3R paragraph 67; goodwill included in a disposalgroup classified as held for sale in accordance with IFRS 5 and goodwill derecognizedduring the reporting period without having previously been included in a disposal groupclassified as held for sale; impairment losses recognized during the reporting period inaccordance with IAS 36. (IAS 36 requires disclosure of information about the recoverableamount and impairment of goodwill in addition to this requirement); net exchange ratedifferences arising during the reporting period in accordance with IAS 21 The Effects ofChanges in Foreign Exchange Rates; any other changes in the carrying amount during thereporting period; and the gross amount and accumulated impairment losses at the end of thereporting period”.3.1.4. Reporting for goodwill“Goodwill arising on the acquisition of a subsidiary is recognized as an asset at thedate that control is acquired (the acquisition date). Goodwill is measured as the excess ofthe sum of the consideration transferred, the amount of any non-controlling interest in theacquired company and the fair value of the acquirer’s previously-held equity interest (ifany) in the entity over the net fair value of the identifiable net assets recognized. If, afterreassessment, the Group’s interest in the net fair value of the acquired company’sidentifiable net assets exceeds the sum of the consideration transferred, the amount of anynon-controlling interest in the acquired company and the fair value of the acquirer’spreviously-held equity interest (if any), the excess is recognized immediately in profit orloss as a bargain purchase gain”, under IFRS 3R.Moreover, the same regulation, stipulates that “goodwill is not amortized, but isreviewed for impairment at least annually. Any impairment loss is recognized immediatelyin profit or loss and is not subsequently reversed. On disposal of a subsidiary, amount ofgoodwill attributed to it is included in the determination of the profit or loss on disposal”.Under IFRS, IAS 36 – Impairment of Assets, goodwill is allocated to CashGenerating Units (CGU), and the test for impairment, including goodwill, is on the entireCGU. Under IFRS, there is no separate test for goodwill, which is a relief for Canadiancompanies to some extent. However a company must identify which CGU the goodwillapplies to. An impairment loss is recognized, if and only if, the carrying amount of thecash-generating unit to which the goodwill has been allocated exceeds the recoverableamount of the cash-generating unit. The impairment loss should be allocated first to reducethe carrying amount of any goodwill allocated to the cash-generating unit and secondly tothe other assets of the unit pro rata on the basis of the carrying amount of each asset in theunit. Another important point is that under IFRS, it is not permissible to reverseRevista Română de Statistică – Supliment Trim IV/2012 253

impairments previously recognized for goodwill. In particular, IAS 36 requires the reversalof an impairment loss for an individual asset other than goodwill, or a cash-generating unit,if and only if there has been a change in the estimates used to determine the recoverableamount since the last impairment loss was recognized.3.2. The United States General Accepted Accounting Principles (US GAAP )As a consequence of the US’s strong economic position on the market and thecontinuous development of business combinations on the international markets we observehow the US GAAP influences the IFRS, especially since the American regulatory body hasa consulting position in the IASB meetings (Ristea et al., 2006).Under the US GAAP there is a two-step approach to goodwill: “1. Compare fairvalue of the reporting unit with its carrying amount including goodwill. If fair value isgreater than carrying amount, no impairment (skip step 2). 2. Compare ‘implied fair value’of goodwill (which is determined based on a hypothetical purchase price allocation) with itscarrying amount, recording an impairment loss for the difference”.As for the other accounting treatments concerning goodwill, the US GAAP doesnot differ substantially from the IFRS. Next, we will make a comparison between the twostandards.3.3. Comparing the IFRS to USGAAPIn 2001, the FASB issued SFAS 141. Following that, after three years, the IASBissued their own standard entitled the same, “Business Combinations”. The FASB andIASB planned a convergence program since 2004 and for years later, in 2008 bothregulating bodies announced revised versions of their standards regarding the matter ofbusiness combinations. Therefore, the SFAS 141R becomes effective from December the15 th 2008, and the IASB’s IFRS 3R becomes effective from the 1 st of July 2009.According to Deloitte (2006) specialists, “the most fundamental change affects thebiggest number: goodwill. In the first year of IFRS 3 adoption, goodwill accounted for53%, £21bn, of acquisition values for the FTSE 100 and for the S&P 100 in 2007, 48%, or$490bn. Under FASB 141 (R), the factors that constitute goodwill are now required to bedisclosed, as has always been the case under IFRS 3. Such factors include intangible assetsnot separately identifiable, such as workforce, synergies of cost and synergies of scale.Financial regulators are making this a priority area for scrutiny, as it presents a significantopportunity for improved reporting”.3.3.1. Similarities between the IFRS and the USGAAPThe US GAAP and the IFRS contain indicators which asses the impairment oflong-lived assets, that are defined similarly. These internationally approved standardsrequire that revision of goodwill and other intangibles with indefinite lives be performed atleast once a year or even more frequently if any impairment indicators are present. Otherlong-lived assets will be tested when indicators of possible impairment are present, and notyearly. Impairment indicators under the US GAAP and the IFRS are similar. The standardsFAS 142 Goodwill and Other Intangible Assets, FAS 144 Accounting for the Impairment orDisposal of Long-Lived Assets, and IAS 36 Impairment of Assets all apply to long-lived andother intangible assets, although each standard underlines certain exceptions. With regard tosimilarities and differences between the two standards, we can conclude that differences arepresent in the way impairment is reviewed, recognized and measured.254Revista Română de Statistică – Supliment Trim IV/2012

3.4. European accounting regulations: the EEC 4 th and 7 th DirectivesThe EU accounting consolidation policy is laid down in the Seventh CouncilDirective, issued in 1983. This Regulation has been the main harmonization instrument inthe field of consolidation policy on EU level.The project of convergence between international accounting regulations and theAmerican ones, is strongly supported by the European Commission. The president of theIASB, Sir David Tweedie, and the Commission of American Exchange Security, SEC, bothconsider that on a medium term, the following elements are in view: “a technical support tofacilitate the use of the concept of true and fair value; the obligation to book, report andissue a comprehensive income statement; an adhesion to the American model of a report onsegments. A detailed application on short term of the concept of true and fair value is lessprobable”. The president of the IASB supplied to the Committee of AccountingRegulations (part of the organism that work for the adoption of the IFRS standards at theEuropean level) details referring to the subjects for the convergence project. In this regard,several projects are undertaken: “company combination (development and revision of thestandard IFRS 3); the distinction liabilities/ equities; financial instruments; the process ofidentifying; information regarding the performance; income accountancy; the measurementof a fair value”. For Romanian companies, the way to reach the convergence project is toadopt of the two accounting referential. Companies that are quoted on the market, as wellas insurance companies have to implement IFRS regulations.3.5. Romanian accounting regulations: the Public Finance Ministry OrderNo.3055/2009 (OMFP 3055/2009)In 2009 the Romanian accounting law was improved by the issue of the OMFP3055/2009. With regard to the subject of goodwill, the main difference compared to theformer regulation is analyzed below. The main change consisted in evaluating assets at thefair value, not at the accountable value as before.According to OMFP 3055/2009, companies must use fair value evaluation forrecognizing any asset or liability arising from a business combination, in order to establishtheir individual value. This action should be performed by professionals in the field ofevaluation, members of a worldwide recognized professional body.Goodwill is usually recognized at the time of the consolidation, and it representsthe difference between the acqusition cost and the fair value of the assets aquired, at thedate of the transaction.Internally generated goodwill is not recognized under the Romanian law, becauseit is considered to be an unidentifiable resource, meaning it can not be evaluated at acredible cost.Goodwill is usually amortised during a period of five years, but companies are stillallowed to prolong this beyond the specified time, on condition that the lifetime of the assetdoes not expire before the amortization is complete.4. Case study: Measurement of formal harmonization of Romanianaccounting regulations to the International Financial Reporting Standards, withregard to goodwill, using Jaccard coefficientsIn this section of our paper we will visualise the results of the Jaccard coefficientswhich led to the results we later on interpreted.Revista Română de Statistică – Supliment Trim IV/2012 255

4.1. Comparability of the accounting treatment for goodwill and calculus ofJaccard coefficientsTable 1. Accounting rules and the calculation of the coefficientsInternational Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) andNational Accounting Regulations (NAR)Analyzed time-frame 2008-2011IFRS and NAR 8 elementsYear 2008 Year 2009 Year 2010 Year 2011IFRS NAR IFRS NAR IFRS NAR IFRS NAR1. Goodwill from a business combination 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 12. Negative goodwill 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 13. Internally generated goodwill 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 04. Fair value in relation to goodwill 1 0 1 1 1 1 1 15. Calculus of goodwill 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 16. Amortization of goodwill 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 17. Impairment of goodwill 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 08. Explanatory notes 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1Source: The projections and calculations of the authorThe results obtained after the measurements of the similarity and discrepancycoefficients are the following:J S2008 = 0.5, and J D2008 = 1- J S2008 =0.5J S2009 = 0.625, and J D2009 = 1- J S2009 =0.375J S2010 = 0.625, and J D2010 = 1- J S2010 =0.375J S2011 = 0.625, and J D2011 = 1- J S2011 =0.375Where J S represents the Jaccard similarity coefficient calculated for each separateyear between 2008 and 2011 and J D represents the Jaccard discrepancy coefficientcalculated for each separate year between 2008 and 2011.4.2. Interpretation of the resultsWith regard to goodwill, we see that there are different degreesof harmonization. For 2008, the degree of similarity is 0.5 which means that the Romanianlegislation is 50% harmonized with international referential. For the coming years, thedegree of similarity increases to 0.625. This increase happened because in 2009 theRomanian Minister of Public Finance Order no. 3055/2009 was introduced for the approvalof Accounting Regulations in accordance with European directives.The main modification of this order is the valuation of assets at fair value, firstintroduced in the Romanian legislation. Because the valuation of assets at fair value is the256Revista Română de Statistică – Supliment Trim IV/2012

amount used in calculating goodwill, its presence in the Romanian legislation increases theJaccard coefficients.Therefore we conclude that the degree of formal harmonization is high, confirmingour initial hypothesis H1 from which we started our research.5. Conclusions and future developmentsThe main purpose of our research was to analyze the accounting regulationsregarding goodwill and to measure the degree of formal harmonization of the Romanianregulations to the IFRSs. To achieve our goal, we first made a thorough analysis of allinternational, european and national regulations, followed by the actual measurement of thedegree of formal harmonization using Jaccard coefficients.We have, in our paper, demonstrated through mathematical calculus that thedegree of formal harmonization of the Romanian regulations to the IFRSs has reached alevel above fifty percent, but we could also find aspects where the regulations can still beimproved.Given that at an international level there are specific regulations, such as IFRS 3Business Combinations, which only regard the subject of business combinations and thatRomanian legislature holds only one regulatory act, OMFP 3055/2009 for all accountingtreatments according to international standards, we consider that our comparison may bedetrimental to Romanian law, at least partially. Our sollution to this matter would proposeadopting the whole version of the IFRS at a national level, or the adaptation of themaccording to the national needs, by creating National Accounting Regulations. This is notan innovative proposal, since it follows the model of The Check Republic or Hungary, bothof which have their national standards. Of course, debates should be organized between theacademic and proffesional bodies, in order for the best sollution to be reached.We consider we have achieved our initial objective and managed to confirm ourpresumed hypothesis.References[1]. Albu C., Albu N., Alexander D., “The True And Fair View Concept In Romania: ACase Study Of Concept Transferability”, http://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr[2]. Alp A., Ustundag S. (2009), ”Financial reporting transformation: the experience ofTurkey”, Critical Perspectives on Accounting, Volume 20, Issue 5, :680-699[3]. Ball R (2006), “International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS): pros and cons forinvestors” Accounting and Business Research, International Accounting PolicyForum: 5-27.[4]. Ballas A., Skoutela A., Tzovas C. (2010) "The relevance of IFRS to an emergingmarket: evidence from Greece", Managerial Finance, Vol. 36 Iss: 11: 931 – 948[5]. Diaconu P., Coman N. (2006), “Accounting research from the globalizationperspective”, International Journal of Human and Social Sciences: 25-31[6]. Feleaga L., Feleaga N., Dragomir V. (2009), “National Standards and EuropeanAccounting Harmonization: Twenty Years of Scientific Literature in Review”,European Journal of Management, Vol. 9, No. 2: 10-21[7]. Filip A. (2010), “IFRS and the value relevance of earnings: evidence from theemerging market of Romania”, International Journal of Accounting, Auditing andPerformance Evaluation Volume 6, Number 2-3 :191 - 223[8]. Francis J., Khurana I., Xiumin M., Pereira R. (2008), “The Role of Firm-SpecificIncentives and Country Factors in Explaining Voluntary IAS Adoptions: Evidencefrom Private Firms”. The European Accounting Review, Vol. 17, No. 2: 331– 360Revista Română de Statistică – Supliment Trim IV/2012 257

[9]. Haller A. (2002), “Financial accounting developments in the European Union; pastevents and future prospects”, The European Accounting Review, Vol. 11 No. 1: 153-190[10]. IASB, Standardele Internaţionale de Raportare Financiară, Editura CECCAR,Bucureşti, 2007;[11]. Matiş D., Normarea, armonizarea şi dezvoltarea sistemului contabil din România,Studia Universitas, Babeş-Bolyai, Oeconomica;[12]. Mustaţă R., Sisteme de măsurare a armonizării şi diversităţii contabile – întrenecesitate şi spontaneitate, Editura Casa Cărţii de Ştiinţă, 2008;[13]. Rezaee Z., Smith L. M., Szendi J. Z. (2010), “Convergence in accountingstandards Insights from academicians and practitioners”, Advances in AccountingVolume 26, Issue 1, :142-154[14]. Nobes C. (2006), “The survival of international differences under IFRS: towardsresearch agenda”, Accounting and Business Research, Vol. 36. No. 3. : 233-245[15]. Razvan V. Mustata, Carmen G. Bonaci, Dumitru Matis, and Jiří Strouhal, UsingEconometric Tools for Accounting Harmonization Measurement, International JournalOf Mathematical Models And Methods In Applied Sciences, Issue 2, Volume 5, 2011,pp. 316-323.[16]. Saudagaran, Shahrokh M (2001), International Accounting: A User PerspectiveThompson Learning[17]. Tarca, A., International Convergence of Accounting Standards: An investigationof the use of IAS “Options” not acceptable under US GAAP, International Journal ofBusiness Studies, Jun 2005, ProQuest Central, pages 67-86;[18]. www.iasplus.com, Business combinations and changes in ownership interests Aguide to the revised IFRS 3 and IAS 27[19]. www.iasb.com[20]. www.ey.com/IFRS US GAAP vs. IFRS The Basics[21]. www.kpmg.com First impressions IFRS 3 Business Combinations and FAS 141Business Combinations[22]. www.pwc.com Accounting Standards for Goodwill[23]. http://www.intengiblebusiness.us258Revista Română de Statistică – Supliment Trim IV/2012

Theoretical Aspects Concerning the Use of theMarkowitz Model in the Management ofFinancial Instruments PortfoliosLecturer Mădălina - Gabriela ANGHEL, PhD Studentmadalinagabriela_anghel@yahoo.com„Artifex” University of BucharestAbstractEarly attempts to develop a modern model for the assessment of performance ofportfolios of instruments belong to American teacher Harry Markowitz. He has abandonedthe classical approach of the analysis of financial investment (based solely on technicaland fundamental analysis), pointing attention to performance analysis to the overview of aportfolio of financial instruments (analysis based on the report yield/risk of components ina portfolio).Key words: Markowitz model, profitability, risk, root-mean deviation, correlationcoefficientJEL Classification: G11In the case of modern portfolio theory, the investments are modeled statistically,taking into account the level of the profit expected and the degree of volatility of thefinancial instrument, the latter being considered as a carrier of risk specific to eachinstrument 1 . The purpose of this theory is that each investor to identify the level of riskaccepted and then to identify the portfolio with the highest yield for this level.Under conditions of certainty, Harry Markovitz has shown that the choice of theportofolio can be reduced to analysis of two sizes: "the rate of expected gain of the portfolioand dispersion or root-mean deviation, as a measure of the risk" 2 . We can also affirm thatthe risk of a diversified portfolio dependents not only on the individual variations of titlesrentability but also on adverse movements of all the assets.The most important discovery in Markowitz's work - "Portofolio selection.Efficient Diversification of Investments" - 1959 (work for which he was rewarded withNobel Prize for economy in 1990), considered to be the basis of modern portfolio theory -is that according to which an investor can reduce ithe volatility of his portfolio (i.e., its risk)and may (at the same time) to grow its profitability.The Markowitz model is based on a number of assumptions which may besummarized as:1 Anghelache, G.V.; Anghel, M.G. – “The using of the Markowitz model to identify the optimalportfolio”, Romanian Statistical Review Reverential Session. 150 years of official statistics, no 6,20092 Markowitz, H. – “Portofolio selection. Efficient Diversification of Investiments", Journal of Finance7Revista Română de Statistică – Supliment Trim IV/2012 259

Investors consider each alternative of investment as being represented bythe distribution of the hoped profit likelihood in a period of time;Investors maximize the utility anticipated within a period of time, andusefulness curve maximizes the marginal utility of their welfare.Investors estimate the risk on the basis of the change in profits expected;Investors make decisions only on the basis of the risk and hoped profit, sothe usefulness curve is expressed as a function of the profit expected anda variance of the profit;For a given level of risk, investors prefer a huge profit; for a given levelof expected profit, investors prefer to risk less.The practical use of Markowitz model makes it possible to determine the level ofthe individual dispersion of financial instruments profitability, both for a portfolio ofsimplified instruments(made of two financial securities ), and for a portfolio consisting of"n" financial instruments. Even if they are two or more securities in different markets, theconstruction of a portfolio involves browsing the following steps:Identification of the risk - revenue profile for each alternative of thecombination of the securities in the portfolio;Determination of the combination of risky securities with the minimumvariance depending on the degree of aversion of each investor;Determination of complete portfolio by combining the portfolio with itsminimum variance with securities without risk that investor intends tointroduce in his portfolio.Profitability and risk of a portfolio made up of two financial securitiesThe simplest model of a portfolio that can be analyzed using the model developedby Markowitz is the one made up of two financial instruments. In this respect, we considerthat an equity investor can choose to invest his savings in one of the two available financialsecurities - T 1 and T 2 or equally can build up a P portfolio distributing in this sense theamount he wishes to invest between the two previously mentioned securities 3 .Mathematically, the investor's anticipation about the behavior of the two securitiesin the future period can be summarized as follows 4 :where:E i – the mathematical hope of "i"security rate profitability;σ i – the standard deviation of "i"security rate profitability;ρ ij – the coefficient of correlation between 'i" and"j" securities rates profitability;Cov ij – covariance between "i" and "j" securities rates profitability.A capital investor has the opportunity to form a portfolio combining the twosecurities in proportion of X 1 and X 2 . In this case, the available total amount is invested inT 1 (the amount of the purchase of the first type of financial instrument) and T 2 (the amountof the purchase of the second type of financial instrument). In this case we can establish thefollowing calculation relationship:X 1 + X 2 = 1 cu X 1 , X 2 ≥ 0 sau 0 ≤ X 1 ≤ 1 şi 0 ≤ X 2 ≤ 13 Anghelache G.V.; Anghelache, C. (2009) – “Risk and profitability – basis of the financial analysis”,Metalurgia International, vol. XIV, special issue no.12;4 Roman, M. – “Financial and banking Statistics”, ASE Publishing House, Bucharest, 2003260Revista Română de Statistică – Supliment Trim IV/2012

Under the conditions mentioned above, you can determine the mathematical hopeof portfolio rate yield P (E p ), using for this purpose the relationship: E p = X 1 E 1 + X 2 E 2As it can be seen from the above relationship, hope return is the weighted averageof the yields of securities, the average being the proportions.The second element which should be studied in order to characterize the efficiencyof the portfolio considered is represented by the scattering of "P" (V p ) portofolio rate yield ,which is actually a measure of the risk related to the investment portfolio. For this purposewe will use the following mathematical relationship:From the formulas above, we can deduce that the dispersion of the portfolio issignificantly influenced by the following elements: the dispersion of each title included in the portfolio; the proportions in which are combined the two financial securities; the covariance between the two titles considered.To complete the analysis carried out on the basis of the above-mentioned relations,in the literature, it is advisable to study the existing correlation between the two securitiesincluded in the portfolio 5 . Thus, we can see that, depending on the value of the correlationcoefficient between the two securities - T 1 and T 2 can be identified three distinct cases,which can be summarized as follows:The value of the correlation coefficient is 1 (ρ 12 =1)In this case, it can be affirmed that the financial instruments T 1 and T 2 are perfectlyand positively correlated, what signifies the anticipation for the return of these titles ofsome movements perfectly consistent over time, but with different amplitudes. In thissituation, it is considered that the risk for the portfolio is in the highest degree, because thefactors that influence the evolution of the two titles are similar and with an action of equalintensities. Also, it is noted that, in this case, changing the share of securities in thestructure of portfolio does not bring significant improvements to the level of riskassociated with it 6 .For this value of correlation, relations on the basis of which an assessment of twofinancial securities portofolio can be made can be transcribed as:write:with =1which means:In this case, it is noted that the standard deviation of the portfolio is equal to theaverage of the standard deviations of financial securities that compose it.5 Anghel, M.G. (2009) – „Models of Estimation for the Profitability and the Risk of a FinancialSecurity”, The Romanian Statistics Review – Supplement March;6 Dragotă, V. – “Securities portfolio Management” – Second Edition', Economica Publishing House,Bucharest, 2009Revista Română de Statistică – Supliment Trim IV/2012 261

Bringing together the two equations and reporting to yield and to risk of the "P"portfolio ,andwe obtain the equation:as space of combining the securities in plane E-σ.It is known that: X 1 + X 2 = 1, respectively: X 2 = 1 – X 1In these conditions, the equation by which one can determine the mathematicalhope of P(Ep) portfolio yield rate becomes:In this case, the yield of T1 security within the portfolio P can be determined usingthe formula:It also finds that, where mathematical hopes of return rates of the two securities arenot equal (E 1 ≠ E 2 ) then the value of the standard deviation in the yield of portfolio can becalculated as follows 7 :The value of the correlation coefficient is -1 (ρ 12 = -1)Where the value of the correlation coefficient ρ 12 = -1, then T 1 and T 2 titles areperfectly and negatively correlated . In such a situation these anticipations relating relatingto the yield of titles present perfect opposite fluctuations. It should be noted that, wherethe two titles are related strictly negative can be reached in a certain combination, the totalelimination of the risk for the portfolio of securities. Also, in this situation, the relations ofcalculation of the standard deviation may be transformed as follows:write:which means:The standard deviation is always positive, so it makes the discussion for the sign ofthe expression that varies depending on the X 1 and X 2 .For:This relationship, along with relationship E p = X 1 E 1 + X 2 E 2 , allows thedetermination of the equation of connection between E p and σ p .We achieve:7 Badea, L. – “Study on the applicability of the Markowitz model on the stock market in Romania”,Theoretical and Applied Economics Review, no 6, 2006262Revista Română de Statistică – Supliment Trim IV/2012

It is a linear relationship represented by a straight line. Part of this right,corresponding to:For:It’s:andDoing similarly where the degree of correlation is equal to one, we get the linearequation l linking Ep and σ p.A part of this straight line corresponding tois the rule obtained combining portfolios T1 and T2. Finally, forwe have σ p = 0.This result must be mentioned clearly, because it shows that from two riskysecurities it is possible choosing the rigorous proportions (0 ≤ X 1 and X 2 ≤ 1), to build anunrisky portfolio . This result is possible if the securities T1 and T2 are perfectly andnegatively correlated.The different value of coefficient correlation ± 1 (ρ 12 ≠ ± 1)If -1 < ρ 12 < +1 (including ρ 12 = 0) anticipated fluctuations for T 1 and T 2 are notabsolutely dependent (positive and negative). It is the general case, there is a degree ofcorrelation between the securities yield rates because they all follow more or less thegeneral fluctuations of the economy.A low correlation coefficient may lead to a significant improvement of the riskvalue related to the investment portfolio. Also, a null value of this coefficient shall bedeemed to be a potential source of decrease with 50% of risk of the present portofolio 8 .In the general case (the correlation coefficient other than 1 and-1) for a portfolio of twosecurities shall be obtained the following expression of the risk:which means:As it can be seen, in this case, unlike previous situations, the expression of riskcannot be reduced to the form of a perfect square, making it more difficult the practical8 Dragotă, V. – “Securities portfolio Management” – Second Edition', Economica Publishing House,Bucharest, 2009Revista Română de Statistică – Supliment Trim IV/2012 263

determnation of its the value . From this equation and from that of Ep (E p = X 1 E 1 + X 2 E 2 ),we establish the relationship linking E p and σ p .From the equation of E p we achieve X 1 = (E p -E 2 /(E 1 -E 2 ), value that we introduceinto the equation of V p . Developing we achieve:The equation obtained in E-V plan is that of a parabole. In the E-σ plane theequationrepresents a hyperbola from which we keep a section, namely that corresponding to σ ppositive values.An interesting aspect in the analysis of any portfolio of financial instruments is theassessment of the contribution of each security to the risk and the general efficiency of theportfolio from which it is part. From the formula that defines the security risk in a portfolio,can be formulated the following conclusions:the choice of a title for its inclusion in a portfolio will not be made depending on itsindividual characteristics (σ 1 ), but according to behaviour within the portfolio (cov 1p ).the risk of a security is not unique, it depends on the portfolio iin which it s included.References[1]. Anghelache, G.V.; Anghel, M.G. (2009) – “The using of the Markowitz model toidentify the optimal portfolio”, Romanian Statistical Review Reverential Session. 150years of official statistics, no 6;[2]. Anghelache G.V.; Anghelache, C. (2009) – “Risk and profitability – basis of thefinancial analysis”, Metalurgia International, vol. XIV, special issue no.12;[3]. Anghel, M.G. (2009) – „Models of Estimation for the Profitability and the Risk of aFinancial Security”, The Romanian Statistics Review – Supplement March;[4]. Badea, Leonardo (2006) – “Study on the applicability of the Markowitz model on thestock market in Romania”, Theoretical and Applied Economics Review, no 6;[5]. Dragotă, V. (2009) – “Securities portfolio Management” – Second Edition', EconomicaPublishing House, Bucharest[6]. Markowitz, H. – “Portofolio selection. Efficient Diversification of Investiments",Journal of Finance 7;[7]. Roman, M. (2003) – “Financial and banking Statistics”, ASE Publishing House,Bucharest.264Revista Română de Statistică – Supliment Trim IV/2012

Tourism Infrastructure – a Factor which Influencesthe Quality of Tourism ServicesLecturer Emilia PASCU, PhDpascu.emilia@ucdc.ro"Dimitrie Cantemir" Christian University, Bucharest, RomaniaAbstractAt the end of this century and millennium, the tourism and travel industryrepresents, at a global scale, the most dynamic activity sector and, at the same time, it isthe most important workforce generator. From an economical point of view, tourismrepresents the main source of redressing the national economies of those countries whichpossess valuable tourism resources and properly exploits them. Its action manifests at alarge scale, from stimulating economical development to perfecting social structure, from asuperior resources’ valorizing to an improvement of life conditions. Any tourist activityrequires a specific material base tourism industry, but at the same time, to ensure touristtraffic require both the tourist material specific as well as general and technicalinfrastructure.Key words: free time, accommodation capacity, technical infrastructure,material basisJEL Classification: L83IntroductionViewed in conjunction with the national economy, tourism acts as a stimulatingTOURISM INFRASTRUCTURE global system. Conducting tourism involves a specificrequest for goods and services, demand drives the increase in their production area.Tourism demand determines supply adaptation that results in, inter alia, the technical andmaterial development of the sector, and indirectly stimulating the production branchesparticipating in the construction and equipping of accommodation and food, modernizationof roads, development of means transport, leisure facilities etc.Perceived in relationship tothe assembly of national economy, tourism acts as an element which activates the globalsystem.Determinant factors of tourism developmentIn this context, the main arguments which determine the necessity of tourismdevelopment are the consequence of the following aspects (Apostol D., 2012): Because tourism resources are practically inexhaustible, tourismrepresents one of economy’s sectors with real long term developmentperspectives; The complex exploitation and valorization of tourism resources, togetherwith an efficient advertising on the external market can represent a wayof growing the financial resources of the state, contributing toestablishing a balance of external payments;Revista Română de Statistică – Supliment Trim IV/2012 265

Tourism is a secure market for workforce as it redistributes theunemployed personnel coming from other economic sectors;Because of its multiplying effect, tourism acts as an element of the globaltourism system, generating a specific request of goods and services whichdetermine a growth of their production, contributing to the nationaleconomy’s sectors’ diversification;A harmonious development of tourism contributes to the economic andsocial growth and to the attenuation of the disequilibrium betweenvarious areas, representing an important source of increasing thepopulation’s financial resources.Regional developmentThe regional development policy wants to: diminish the existing regional disequilibrium, focusing on stimulating abalanced development and revitalizing the affected areas (with delayeddevelopment); it anticipates and solves future disequilibrium; accomplish the criteria of integration in the European Union’s structuresand having access to financial assistance tools for member states(structural and cohesion funds); correlate the governmental sector programs; it also wants to stimulate theinterregional, internal and international cooperation, which contributes toeconomic development and follows the legal regulations and internationalagreements signed by Romania. tourism represents a tool for rural development by means of expandingthe area of the specific offer and of creating workplaces other than thetraditional ones, improving life conditions and growing the localpopulation’s incomes; local industry ‘s diversification through small and medium enterprises; developing nonpolluting industries which would promote products suchas handicraft articles, furniture, leather etc.; under the conditions of respecting and promoting the durabledevelopment principles, tourism is a means of protecting, conserving andvalorizing the cultural, historical, folkloric and architectural potential ofcountries; by adopting a durable development strategy and imposing a series ofmeasures for the protection of environment and human existence’sfundamental principles (water, air, flora, fauna, ecosystems etc.), tourismhas an ecological vocation at the same time; the social dimension of tourism manifests itself as a way of educating andimproving the level of civilization, playing an important part in properlyspending the free time.The adaptation of tourism activities to the current level of exigencies and to thepresent and future mutations of the internal and international request’s level and intensitycannot be realized without the existence of a tourism material unit and that of an adequatetechnical and social infrastructure which would be able to valorize all tourism resourcesavailable. Valorizing the touristic potential, the natural potential (relief and geology,climate, hydrography, flora and fauna, natural parks and natural reservations) and theanthropic potential (vestiges, historical places and monuments, ethnography and folklore,266Revista Română de Statistică – Supliment Trim IV/2012

as well as technical-economical and social-demographic) directly depend on the technicalmaterialbase of tourism and the quality of tourism services (P. Nedea, 2012).Over the last few decades, at an international level, the hotels’ activity has gainedmore and more the characteristics of a true industry.The hotels industry gathers in a coherent system all those processes developed inaccommodation units generated by the tourists’ receiving, hosting and departure. This is thereason why it can be established a complex and profound interdependency relationshipbetween hotels industry and tourist activity (O.M. Rezeanu, 2011).On the one hand, tourism development is causally determined by the existence ofaccommodation units, their equipments, the services’ variety and quality, and on the otherhand, the hotels industry develops from both a quantitative and qualitative point of view asa result of tourism circuits. This way, hotels industry allows a superior valorization of thetouristic patrimony by attracting in this circuit various geographical areas; it creates theconditions which would allow a larger amount of the population to spend their free time ina tourism destination (Bălăşoiu, V., Dobândă, E., Snak, O., 2003).The level of hotels industry’s development also represents the extent to which thepopulation’s need for tourism has been satisfied. In return, profits increase, urbanization, alarger amount of free time have led to mutations in what regards consumers’ behavior, inthe sense that their tourism request has grown.Insufficient or low quality hotel services in relationship with population’s requestswill determine changes in incomes’ destination and in the way of spending free time,leading to a decrease in tourism circuits. Hotels industry and the quality of tourism servicesprovide a good valorization of the tourism potential, workforce, the capacity of thetechnical-material base and growing the efficiency of its trading. The hotels industry isinfluenced by tourism development and develops under the influence of various factors andeconomical and social phenomena in which tourism circuits play an important part (O.M.Rezeanu, 2011).The increase of tourists’ number and their exigencies will lead to an increase ofaccommodation units and their modernization. Moreover, we will face the apparition ofhotel units with complex functions, as well as a diversification of their services.If we analyze the tradition of hospitality and the manner in which it has beenmanaged, we reach the conclusion that hotel activity oscillates between services andindustry.Types of services specific to the activity tourismModern hostelry is characterized by a series of tendencies of integrating tourists’accommodation and alimentation. Moreover, there are some accommodation units whichprovide cultural and artistic services, recreation services, informing services andcommercial ones (O. Milea, 2012).Recreation and cultural-artistic services request adequate equipments (pools,saunas, gyms, sports fields, areas for holding folkloric festivals, reunions, shows, exhibitsetc.) and specialized personnel able to instruct and/or supervise tourists (Minciu R., 2006).Information services enable the possibility of acknowledging the tourism offer.Intermediation services enable a better communication between tourists andspecialized services providers: renting recreation products of personal use, booking etc.Commercial services are represented by selling a series of necessary productsduring the sojourn.Considered through the lenses of its position – that of component part of both thetourism product and the base services – public alimentation determines the quality ofRevista Română de Statistică – Supliment Trim IV/2012 267

tourism services in its assembly, and it influences the tourism offer’s content andattractiveness, having at the same time major influences over the dimensions of the tourismfluxes’ directions. In order to achieve these things, public alimentation services mustcomplete the following requests: being present at every major moment of tourism consume; the existence of a structural diversity of this type of services; particularizing the public alimentation service; the necessity of responding to both local and foreign tourists’ exigencies;Enterprisers from the public alimentation services domain are permanently busywith providing a qualitative and quantitative development of the provided services, in orderto respond to alimentation requests of local and foreign tourists. From a quantitative pointof view, they focus on growing the volume of activity, and from a qualitative perspective,they permanently adapt to the requests’ exigencies by means of modernizing and perfectingthe production, of improving and diversifying serving methods.In order to respond to international tourism’s requests, it has been developed anetwork of specific, representative units, which offer ethnic food in a pleasant ambient withcultural and architectural elements, decorations, well chosen artistic programs – offeringpublic alimentation new features and making it more interesting.Balneary units contain both accommodation units and treatment units. Most of thetreatment units are placed inside the hotels and allow a number of 95.000 procedures a dayand they assure a diversified treatment base, able of satisfying treatment requests includedin the World Health Organization’s nomenclature: hearth diseases, renal disease etc. (VladD., 2006).The therapeutically value of these natural cure factors in our country has led to thedevelopment of treatment bases which allow the treatment of various affections, the mostimportant ones being listed below: renal affections; alimentary duct affections; hepatic and bilious affections; metabolic affections; inflammatory and degenerative rheumatic affections; respiratory affections; neurological affections etc.These are the reasons why the development of accommodation and treatment unitsat the level requested by the balneary tourism market becomes a necessity. Moreover, theyimprove the recreation and relaxing possibilities. A scientifically funded strategy – that ofdiversifying tourism services in spa units – must take into account various categories ofclients which favor those market segments that include this kind of services.The characteristics of treatment and spa services derive from the definition ofcures: treatment possibilities which are based on a regular use of therapeutically methodsaccording to medical prescriptions together which a change regarding the tourist’s usualenvironment. During the treatment, patients would benefit of medical assistance. This way,medical consults and medical assistance represent a specific form of balneary and medicalservices, provided in order to complete the series of spa and treatment services.The recreation unit contains all the tools and equipments needed in order toprovide a qualitative spending of free time. The recreation unit’s technical and materialbase consists of clubs, casinos, multipurpose halls, amusement parks, sports and recreationservices etc.268Revista Română de Statistică – Supliment Trim IV/2012

The recreation service was conceived as a base of the tourism service and itresponds to tourists’ specific needs and interests. Therefore, it focuses on the tourist’sphysical relaxation, his amusement and the development of his abilities. Its developmentaims at fulfilling the exigencies regarding the improvement of tourism units and leads to adiversification of the offer in this field. This is the reason why the recreation units’development strategy must take into account tourists’ motivations, exigencies andexpectations, on the one hand and the units’ profile, structure and specific, on the otherhand.In order to achieve tourism services, we need a material base, a general tourisminfrastructure and a special technical infrastructure.ConclusionsThe general tourism infrastructure which contributes to achieving of tourismconsumption is made by:road network: it occupies an important place in developing tourismtravels as it is distributed in the entire country and it offers theopportunity of visiting touristic objectives even in more isolated areas; railway network; air transportation is a main factor of international tourism’s development; water transportation (fluvial and maritime) are favored by the fact thatRomania is placed on the inferior course of the Danube, having 1.075 km ofnavigable waters. At the same time, Romania benefits from the advantages of being placednear the Black Sea, having 224 km of beaches. The fluvial channels can be developed bymeans of various facilities which derive from the existence of a high number of rivers andlakes.The general infrastructure and the tourism infrastructure also include elementsfrom the cultural networks: theatres, cinemas, clubs, museums, exhibits etc.References[1]. Apostol, D. Balaceanu C., 2012, The Concept of Human Development Index, RevistaRomână de Statistică, Tr. I/2012 supliment;[2]. Bălăşoiu, V., Dobândă, E., Snak, O., 2003, Management of Product Quality andTourism Services, Orizonturi Universitare Publishing House, Timişoara;[3]. Milea O.M., 2012, Economie, University Publishing House, Bucharest;[4]. Minciu R., 2004, Tourism Economy, third edition, Uranus Publishing House,Bucharest;[5]. Neagu V., 2000, Services and Tourism, Expert Publishing House, Bucharest;[6]. Nedea P.S., 2012, Geografie economică - Note de curs, University Publishing House,Bucharest,[7]. Rezeanu O.M., 2011, Implications of economic and social services quality of romaniantourism, University Publishing House, Bucharest;[8]. Vlad, D., 2006, Tourism MarkRevista Română de Statistică – Supliment Trim IV/2012 269

Considerations of National Accounts DeflatorsSenior Lecturer Aurelian DIACONU PhDaurelian.diaconu@gmail.com„Artifex” University of BucharestAbstractOne problem highlighted by the specialized literature is to identify the mostappropriate ways of deflating the national accounts aggregates. Starting from this, theauthors present the issue of the price indices used in the construction of National Accounts,highlighting the peculiarities of calculating the national accounts in terms of inflation andthe need to estimate macroeconomic aggregates in constant prices.Key words: account, product, process, information, priceJEL Classification: N14National accounts aggregates such as gross domestic product (GDP) aredeveloped both in current prices and constant prices. The constant price value of anaggregate is obtained by a process called "deflation", in which the current price value isdivided by a price index called "deflator". The constant price values are called "volumes" andexpress the value of an aggregate, if the subsidiary quantities must be multiplied by base yearprices.Price indices used in the process of deflation may be CPIs, PPIs, indices of exportand import prices, etc. In national accounts, information provided by these sources arecompared and integrated in order to achieve a single measurement. GDP deflator is often usedas a general measurement of the inflation as it covers all price changes in the economy, whichare supported by households, enterprises and governments. The deflator of final consumptionexpenses of households is an alternative measurement of the inflation experienced byconsumers. It may differ from CPI due to the differences in the scope of goods and services,due to the methodological differences between the CPI and national accounts, and due to thenational accounts deflators which incorporate information from other price statistics.Calculation of the synthetic price indexThe System of National Accounts (SNA) provides a general framework for themeasurement and the integrated analysis of the price and volume of the mainmacroeconomic aggregates. From this point of view, The System of National Accountssimply covers the transactions in goods and services and some items such as taxes andsubsidies on products, trading margins, consumption of fixed capital, wage compensation,inventory objects stocks and the fix assets produced. Using the prices, the nationalaccountancy enables the statistic measurement of the volume of the added value(representing the balance account of production), which doesn’t express a noticeable flowof goods and services that can be directly divided into price and volume components.Consequently, it can be stated that the macroeconomic data that characterize thedifferent aspects of economic activity become much more important in temporalcomparisons. Time series calculated for synthetic indicators is an important basis formacroeconomic analysis, and thus can underlie economic and political decisions.When the elements of the time series are compared it must be taken into accountthat the macroeconomic aggregates are evaluated in "nominal terms" of the current price270Revista Română de Statistică – Supliment Trim IV/2012

and the level and changes of these aggregates are expressed in terms of price and volume.Therefore, there appears the problem of the division of the nominal change in at least twocomponents: one that expresses changes in prices and another expressing the actual changesof the physical volume. This involves the elimination of the changes of aggregate pricesfrom the nominal change by using deflation, thus achieving the real modifications(volume).The aggregates of the economic performances (GDP, for example) contain variousgoods and services. Therefore, there appears the need to include price variations for goodsand services in a numeric expression (the GDP price index, for example), which can beregarded as a synthesis of the general price levels for the corresponding aggregates. From apractical standpoint, the problem is hard to solve because of the difficulties in dividingnominal aggregates in the two components.Choosing the formula to get the best index that summarizes the evolution of priceswas an intensely debated issue in the specialized literature. For practical reasons, thedecomposition of the nominal aggregates into two components - price and volume - isbased on independent judgments regarding the interpretation of the results and the cost ofcollecting the required information for calculating the index. For these reasons, it can beconcluded that there is no such thing as a "true", "real" price index the sense of the privateeconomic development, always correlated with an "exact" value of the evolution of price.Such conception would lose sight of why a relationship for calculating a certain price indexis chosen and applied, depending on the problems which await an answer.On the other hand, deflating aggregate time series can be regarded as a way todispose price changes compared to a fixed structure of goods (quantities) and prices.Deflating, in a narrow sense, means to relate the nominal indicator to an appropriate priceindex (deflator). Statistical practices highlight a small number of formulas that can beapplied to obtain price indices. Consequently, price indices as Laspeyres and Paasche arevery important since they summarize the relative changes in the prices of goods andservices. Taking into account the differences between formulas, each of them has itsadvantages and limitations. The problem that can always occur, is to choose between thetwo, balancing the possibilities to obtain data, to easily explain the results and to ensurecomparability over time of the computed indices.The System of National Accounts 1993 recommended the usage of annual chainedFisher-type indices for measuring the prices and volumes of GDP and its components. Asan alternative, it is recommended to an annual chained Laspeyres index for volume andPaasche-type index for prices. Fisher-type index has the advantage of achieving for thesame indicator, both the Laspeyres index and Paasche index, and thus determining theinfluence of the weighting systems.The Calculation of National Accounts in the context of inflationThe compilation of national accounts for a country facing phenomenon specific toinflation raises various difficulties. The negative impact of inflation strongly manifests bothin the calculation of constant prices and current prices, because it induces a distortion ofprices.Inflation not only involves major changes in prices, but also a decrease in thepurchasing power of the currency. National accountancy should consider this phenomenonto assess the real economic situation. In these circumstances there is a need to know theway of measuring inflation.Measuring the inflation depends on the position of the decision makers. Inflation isnot an independent phenomenon, each chosen product exhibiting a specific price variation.On the other hand, the purchasing power of a currency depends on the products to beRevista Română de Statistică – Supliment Trim IV/2012 271

purchased. If the same basket of reference is not taken into consideration, the constantdeviation will not be the same. Consequently, there are enough indicators that show thepresence of inflation.In the measurement of inflation, the most commonly used is the consumer priceindex. Its advantage is that it is easily calculated each month, and that it is based on alimited basket of goods from final consumption of households.Also a significant index to measure inflation in the economy is the price index ofGDP. But for its development, it is necessary to calculate national accounts, which meansmore than two years.National accountancy considers the inflation process in certain phases ofdeveloping summary tables, as follows: to analyze changes in property values (for example, nominal holding gainsor losses) arising from changes in their prices; to measure the evolution of the purchasing power of macroeconomicaggregates income and calculate the evolution in "real" terms (not to beconfused with measurement at constant prices), it is sufficient to deflate themwith inflation; The National Accounts System presents interest flows for countries affectedby the inflation. The method allows expressing interest flow, which should beregarded as a repayment of principle, to the extent that inflation leads to a lossof the purchasing power.The comparison of economic activities throughout the year is disturbed byinflation, making it necessary to measure GDP in real terms. This procedure isnot relevant because all variables should be included in the price comparison.Therefore, it requires a more complex analysis, such as analysis in constantprices.Need to estimate macroeconomic aggregates in constant pricesEstablishing the prices and volumes used to estimate GDP is achieved bysuccessive evaluations of its components at the most detailed level possible. If GDP isobtained by using the production method, it is necessary to measure the prices and volumesfor production, the intermediate consumption and gross value added for each activity, aswell as for the taxes and subventions on products. Similarly, the expenditure method isbased on the evaluation of the final consumption of households, governments, and nonprofitinstitutions serving households, the gross capital formation (including inventories),exports and imports of goods and services. Once these estimates obtained, GDP and itscomponents can be calculated in both current and constant prices.When using various price and volume indicators for the determination ofmacroeconomic aggregates, we should consider some important aspects of evaluations (incurrent and constant prices). There are three methods used to obtain expression in constantprices of the macroeconomic aggregates, namely: reevaluation, deflating and extrapolation.Reassessment consists in expressing the volume of each period in the prices of the basic Tyear. Deflating is achieved by dividing the values of the components expressed in currentprices (Vt) of each period by the suitable price index, convenient (IP0, t).Extrapolation of the physical volume represents the updating the values of the baseperiod, using a suitable volume index.Except from the hyperinflation situation, the estimates in constant prices, bydeflating, are generally more accurate than the values obtained by extrapolating volumeindices. This statement is based on the fact that in a stable economy individual price indicesare less variable than the ones of individual volume. In cases in which direct and272Revista Română de Statistică – Supliment Trim IV/2012

independent calculations of prices and volumes can be made, a technique which is easierthan determining of the value, it is necessary to check the consistency between the value,price and volume within the national accounts.In principle, all deflators must be Paasche-type indices (requiring current weight)and the volume indices used to extrapolate volumes should be a Laspeyres type (baseperiod for the shares should be the same as the period used as "base year" in nationalaccounts). In most countries, these requirements are difficult to achieve. To solve thispractical problem, it is necessary to make deflation / extrapolation to the highest level ofdetail possible and, conversely, to obtain synthetic key indicators of national accountsstarting from the most basic level.Economics literature often makes use of two interrelated concepts: real GDP andreal national income. Real GDP is estimated as a sum of its components, measured inconstant prices by deflating using the necessary price indices. For a national economy thisindicator suggests the extent of the economical ‘growth’. Real national income involvesmeasuring the changes in purchasing power, and is given by the sum of the real GDP andeffects of changes in external prices (gains or losses).From this point of view, the problem highlighted in the specialized literature is toidentify the most appropriate ways of deflating the national accounts aggregates. After the50s, most macroeconomic accounting experts agreed to the idea of deflating with a priceindex for each stream. GDP price index was calculated as a residual, indirect element,resulting in a default" price index ", using the so-called Geary method, which involves: estimating the GDP price index by dividing the GDP in current prices, tothe total sum of its deflated components;GDP volume index calculation by dividing the total amount of currentdeflated GDP components to the total sum of the same components of thebase year, at the base year prices.Geary method is compatible with double deflation method, which consists inseparate deflation of output and intermediate consumption, from which will result thedeflated gross value added. Statisticians unanimously decided that this method be used tocalculate national accounts, but the concept of purchasing power was not completelyabandoned. Also, in the 50s an agreement was made that there should be two categories ofmacroeconomic aggregates in constant prices: the GDP and the real national income (whichincludes the concept of purchasing power). Many economists have focused their studies onmeasuring the effects of external price relationships changes (Nicholson, Stone, Burge,Stuvel, Godley and Cripps, Courbis / Kurabayashi)The price indices used in the construction of the National AccountsThe fluxes registered by the National accounts represent economic transactionsmeasured in terms of monetary units. The value of a transaction can be directlydecomposed into two components: the number of quantitative units and the price at whicheach of these elementary quantitative units are sold.For a basic product, this can be expressed by the following equation: "value =quantity x price", which corresponds to the relation "value index = volume index x priceindex".Each post of the national accounts generally covers transactions involving morebasic products. Measuring the changes in volume and price related to the need of theaggregation of individual indices corresponding to basic products. Aggregate volume indexis a Laspeyres one, which corresponds to the aggregation of the individual indices byweighting base period values. Aggregate price index is the Paasche type and is calculatedby aggregating individual price indices, using as weights the values of the current period.Revista Română de Statistică – Supliment Trim IV/2012 273

European System of Accounts uses three concepts of price, depending on therecording mode of taxes and subsidies on products as follows: base price, purchase priceand cost of production. The basic price (PB) - is the price paid by the buyer to the manufacturer;this includes subsidies on products and excludes any tax on the product; alsothis price does not include transportation and delivery charges invoicedseparately by the producer. Production cost - is the price paid by the purchaser to the manufacturer,excluding the deductible value added tax and any other costs related toshipping and delivery, which are made and invoiced separately by theproducer. The formula for calculating this kind of price is: PB + taxes - VAT.The purchase price - is the price paid by the purchaser, excluding the valueadded tax; the price covers the cost of transport and delivery, which are billedseparately by the manufacturer. The formula for calculating this kind of priceis: PB + taxes - VAT + Shipping costs.The evaluation in constant prices of the main aggregates in Romanian nationalaccounts is achieved using the previous year's prices. For each year, the final version of themain aggregates in the national accounts can be found in the "Input-Output table", incurrent prices as well as in prices of the last year. For Romanian national accounts it shouldbe mentioned that a base year is not established.Getting the Input-Output table in constant prices requires separate assessment, inconstant prices of each component for both the uses and resources in the first stage, bybalancing their components at the level of each product and in a later stage, by constructingthe matrix of intermediate consumption, in constant prices.To deflate the aggregates of the national accounts some price indices calculated bydifferent directions in the field of the INS and the General Directorate of National Accountsand Macroeconomic Synthesis of the same institute are necessary. The evaluation of theaggregates of the national accounts in constant prices is done within the framework ofinput-output table.Several main sets of indicators are used. The most important is the consumer priceindex (CPI) for products and services used by the population in a given period of time(current), compared to a prior period (base or reference period); to construct this index thebase year weights derived from the Household Survey data processing is used. CPI iscalculated for the goods and services consumed directly by households. Using the CPI todeflate the production should be based on knowledge of the weight of the total finalconsumption from the total production and the differences in price and structure variationand between the intermediate and final realization of that production. CPI measures thechanges in the purchase price of a product, but not the basic price, and - as a result – its useis not recommended in deflating the output.Industrial production price index (IPPI) on activities measures prices in a givenperiod (named ‘current’) from the previous period (the basic reference), using weightsbased on gross value added structure. Deflation by IPPI is a method preferred byprofessionals because they directly measure the production price and quality changes aretaken into account. IPPI requires special investigations involving high costs and difficultiesin organizing them, especially in the case of services. In general, the IPPI is a Laspeyresindex with monthly or quarterly periodicity.Other series of indices used are: price indices in peasant markets by product, priceindices of vegetal and animal agricultural production, price indices for construction, unit274Revista Română de Statistică – Supliment Trim IV/2012

value indices of imports and exports of goods; average wage indices, on industries. Allthese indicators are rough indicators because they are not adjusted in terms of quality.Some aspects of assessing GDP in constant pricesThe Romanian National Accounts System was based on the framework of theEuropean System of Accounts 1979 (ESA79) until 1998, when the shift to the new systemESA 1995 was realized. This is the reason why the national accounts calculated for the yearof 1998 were made using both systems. For any country, the existence of NationalAccounts is an important contribution to achieving an overall picture of its financialposition. The principle of the National Accounts in constant prices is based on theseparation of current value changes in price and volume changes.A change in the volume of GDP is considered an indicator of the changes that haveoccurred in the national economic activities, measured in the prices of the last year. Bycomparing the change in volume with the change in value of the GDP one can calculate theGDP implicit price change which is an aggregation of all the price changes used in theformation of Input-Output table. Therefore, the implicit price index of GDP can beconsidered an indicator of the general evolution of prices in the economy.GDP in current prices can be calculated by using three methods: of production, ofexpenditures and of incomes. GDP in constant prices can be calculated through the methodsof production and costs, including specific operations of the account of goods and services(calculations for the production, intermediate consumption, gross value added, imports,exports, final consumption, gross fixed capital formation, stock variation). In principle,these methods should lead to the same results, both for current prices and constant prices.Basically, this only happens when an integrated balance calculation based on supply anduse, provided by the national accounts, is used.Using price indices in the method of production for GDP at constant pricesThis method consists of adding up the gross value added of the branches, atconstant prices, and the net taxes on products at constant prices.A) Gross value added (GVA) at constant pricesGVA is an unnoticeable concept which represents the balance of the account ofproduction, and is calculated as the difference between the output in a given period of timeand the corresponding intermediate consumption. Therefore, it is difficult to split GVA inthe two elements: price and volume. GVA at constant prices represents the contribution ofan individual element of production or of a group of units to the final output of goods andservices at constant prices, which are available for the various uses in the economy(consumption, gross capital formation and net exports).The measurement of the value added at constant prices can be obtained usingdifferent methods of deflating (single and double) or of extrapolation of physical volume.From a conceptual point of view, the double deflation is the only correct method, but inpractice it is possible that the necessary information used for reasonable and independentassessments of the output and the intermediate consumption at constant prices, are notavailable or do not meet the required quality. For example, an alternative method is to useprice indices (like the deflators for output and intermediate consumption or wage index) toextrapolate the added value directly. The procedure represents the single deflation method,and is based on the hypothesis of a constant relationship between the production deflators,the intermediate consumption and the value added. The value added must be determined atthe level of services and goods in the production industries. If we sum up all the valuesadded of the economic branches, we obtain their contribution to the formation of the GDP.B) Production at constant pricesRevista Română de Statistică – Supliment Trim IV/2012 275

Production at constant prices is the result of economic activities of the residentunits in a given period of time, in the prices of the base year (precedent). This indicatorconsists of the market and non-market production of goods and services.The market production is evaluated using basic prices, which corresponds to thesum of the values of the cost of the goods and services which were consumed, theremuneration of the factors of production and the subsidies on products. In Romania, theprice indices which are used to assess the market production of goods and services atconstant prices are: aggregate price indices of industrial production, on industry; consumer price indices, on groups of products and services; wholesale price indices on Romanian markets; price indices of agricultural production.At the same time, an assessment of the production at constant prices is obtained byusing production volume indices, when available. The results which are estimated by thetwo methods are then compared. Special difficulties arise in calculating the production atconstant prices for services of financial intermediation, which are indirectly measured. Atthis point, it is estimated by deflating the intermediate consumption (based on the priceindices specific to its components) and the gross value added (using the average wage rateof the workers in the sector), separately."Non-market services" are classified into individual and collective services. Forindividual services another quantitative measurement can be made (education, health),aside from the qualitative one and thus a production of these branches is obtained. For thecollective services (like for example the public administration) the calculation of theproduction starts with the assessment of production at constant prices of intermediateconsumption, remuneration of employees (using the average wage index of the employeesfrom that sector), taxes on production and the consumption of fixed capital. Thus theresulting output was based on the single deflation of the value added of these types ofservices. Therefore the output market of non-market producers is extracted from this part ofproduction. The Romanian national accounts system does not use this types of estimationindicators such as capital per worker or work per hour.C) intermediate consumption (IC) at constant pricesIn the balance of supply and use, the intermediate consumption is treated as adestination of the production of each branch towards the productive consumption of otherbranches.CI estimation is done using purchase prices of the composing goods and services.To calculate CI at constant prices we use price indices which are specific to the origin ofthe resources involved, which correspond to the purchasing price indices of goods andservices that are included in each intermediate consumption of certain activity branches, onproducts. Another method of evaluating the intermediate consumption matrix is byapplying technical coefficients, even if this method should be applied with caution. The twoarrays of intermediate consumption at constant prices obtained are then compared andanalyzed.The assessment at constant prices of the final consumption is made by usingvarious price indices, knowing that there are many distinct parts, such as: Purchases of market goods and services - are estimated in Constant pricesusing aggregate indices of consumer prices on products; Purchases of goods from the agricultural market or from the householdindustry - are estimated in constant prices using selling price indices on theagricultural markets;276Revista Română de Statistică – Supliment Trim IV/2012

Independent final consumption of agricultural producers - the price indicesused are the same as those employed to estimate agricultural production, theground rule is to evaluate the production for final independent consumption atbasic prices, the same as those used for the products on the market or the costsof production;Benefits in kind or the transfers of production – estimating constant pricesdepends on the way of purchasing goods and services. CPI is used for goodsand services which are purchased on the market, and PPI is used for the goodsand services produced by the enterprise itself.Housing services for owners - average rent index on the market is used todeflate this special part of the final consumption.B) Final consumption expenditure of the public administration and the non-profitinstitutions serving households. In accordance with the ESA 95, these types of expendituresare equal to the non-market production of these producers (non-market) minus what wascashed in from the sale of goods and market services at economically significant prices,plus the goods and services purchased to be supplied to households without any otheralteration. The value of the final consumption and the public administration and NPISHs ?is estimated by the "inputs" method and the deflation is done by the suitable using priceindex, especially the appropriate IPPI.C) Gross fixed capital formation at constant pricesPrice changes for different types of fixed capital can be significant. It is importantthat the estimates in constant prices should be realized at least for the following groups offixed capital: buildings and other construction works, machinery and equipment, vehicles.In the Romanian national accounts, the evaluation of gross fixed capital formation (GFCF)is based on different price indices, as it follows:If the product in question is mainly used for gross capital formation, theindices that are used are the average price index the same way as they arecalculated for the total resources in the Input-Output table (production +imports + VAT + customs duty).If the product in question is included in fixed capital formation byexception, normally being intended for the final consumption, then theaverage price indices are calculated for these two elements together.D) Changes in inventories at constant pricesChanges in inventories represent the difference between stock entries and stockexits in a given period. In national accounts, there are three types of stocks: stocks atproducers, at users and commercial stocks; this is the reason why the assessment is madeseparately for each of these categories.A method used by the Romanian national accounts system to assess changes instocks at producers consists of calculating them by the difference between existing stocks atthe end of the period and the existing stocks at the beginning of the period, at the priceswhich correspond to each moment. In this way one can consider "stock appreciation" whichcan be induced by the inflationary process. Changes in inventories without "stockappreciation" can then be evaluated at constant prices using most of the price indices of theresources corresponding to each branch, noting that agricultural products hold someparticular cases. These three elements (initial stock, final stock and stock appreciation) aredeflated separately to obtain the main indicator from the national accounts.The stocks at the user are calculated at current prices on the basis of the inputs andoutputs in the stock, evaluated at the acquisition price for each moment of the movement.Revista Română de Statistică – Supliment Trim IV/2012 277

For the assessment at constant price indices used for the intermediate consumption areemployed. Commercial stocks are deflated using Paasche-type price index.E) Exports and imports of goods and services at constant pricesTo assess exports and imports at constant prices, the implicit price index Paaschetypeshould be adjusted to the specific nature of foreign relations. In the concrete frame ofthe conditions within the Romanian national accounts the determination of the values ofimports and exports in constant prices is accomplished by using their values at currentprices and the price indices (corrected with exchange rate index) for imports and separatelyfor exports. Since the unit value index is a better measure for international economicrelations in forming the GDP and that this index is available in the Romanian statisticssince 1997, the national accounts use it for calculations at constant prices. This index isobtained separately and adjustments occur in the process of comparison with the resultsfrom the usage of volume indices.References[1]. Anghelache, C. (2008) - "Treaty of statistical and economic theory", EconomicPublishing House, Bucharest;[2]. Anghelache, C., Capanu, I. (2003) - "Macroeconomic indicators. Calculation andeconomic analysis ", Economic Publishing House, Bucharest.278Revista Română de Statistică – Supliment Trim IV/2012

Mediation - a Method to Resolve Conflicts WithoutGoing to JusticeLecturer Dragos Marian RADULESCU PhDdmradulescu@yahoo.com„Dimitrie Cantemir” Christian University,AbstractConflict in a society such as the present, where disputes are born every minute,whether it is minor conflicts inherent in community life, or it is a major conflicts involvinglarge groups of people, communities or even states, it takes more effort to restore peace.Appeal to the court or an authoritarian leader to judge and decide who are right, is not along term solution because there will always be dissatisfaction with the solution found.Thus alternative methods are needed to restore the natural order, moving into theconflict to find a compromise solution to please all parties. And one of the methods that cando this is mediation, seen as a quick and confidential way of resolving conflict and findinga viable solution.This study aims to present the main techniques used to obtain the desired result inmediation: a durable peace between the parties.Key words: conflicts, judge, mediation, peace.JEL Classification: J521. IntroductionA conflict is an essential and inevitable phenomenon of social life, becauseexistence of human interaction involves a series of agreements or disagreements betweenindividuals or social groups, and they may easily entail a conflict, which always affects theparties involved, even if there are perceptions that consider conflict as a constructiveprocess.In fact, no conflict is constructive or destructive – the way it is resolved can havepositive or negative effects, so there are many interpretations of the notion of conflictbecause of its assimilation with the circumstances leading to various conflicts.The attitude towards the conflict and its resolution depends on the situation whichcaused strict conflict, so that an organization can identify the following types of potentialconflict: intrapersonal (individual relationship with him - inner conflict, this conflict can beresolved by a third party), interpersonal (among members of same group - because ofdifferences in attitude, personality, values, goals, experience, education, an important factorin interpersonal conflict is adapting correct the situation so that you can achieve the goal)and inter-group (between groups belonging to the same organization, for reasons ofcohesion - causing hostility outside the group structure - the type of leadership andindividual status within the group, actions of power takeover - cause conflict with weakergroups).A conflict has always a cause which determines the nature and intensity of thatconflict, including possible sources of conflict such as: poor communication, competitionRevista Română de Statistică – Supliment Trim IV/2012 279

for common, but limited resources, incompatible purposes and desires, inequality and socialdiscrimination, access to competitive opportunities or increased desire for domination,power or prestige.2. The stucture of conflictMany analysts have described the development model of conflict through fiverelatively distinct stages with disagreement as a starting point that begins with simplemisunderstandings, differentiating individuals or groups by their way of being and thinking,minor insignificant differences for social interaction or for the group, but which candegenerate into real conflict if uncontrolled in time. The confrontation, mentioned in thenext phase, widens the differences between individuals, groups or classes. They areperceived by the parties in conflict as important for group interaction, group threateningunit 1 . In this phase each side presents its position, emphasizing an ideology based onevidence (engagement parties intensify the line initial disagreement, each side pointing outerrors of the others’ way of thinking, the phase in which each side convinces itself that it isnecessary to persuade the opponents to change their opinion or give up their position,accepting his argument. Persuasive action is exaggerated, it may degenerate into actionforce, coercion, because the emotional side prevails over logical arguments, thus resultingin a tense atmosphere, which leads to chain successive frustrations, hostilities, acts ofviolence, language aggression and a solution must be found. The escalation triggersnegative elements that support an over competitive behavior, tensions and hostilities in thegroup increased in intensity, self-defense reaction of each party raises physical andsymbolic violence, maximum aggression, at this stage the conflict reaches its climax whichmay completely destroy the group interaction or may rebuild it through structural change.Interference, inherent in the conflict escalation, is naturally followed byorientation towards rational solutions to resolve conflicting condition, the institutional legalinterventions through negotiation and compromise, by encouraging open communicationpossibilities between the parties, the emergence of a third person as mediator, moderator ornegotiator, all of them aiming at restoring normal social interaction and de-escalation.To be successful in time and efficient in the social interaction group, the finalsolution for conflict resolution should not be regarded as a compromise by either party, butthere should be identified the positive-integrative function for the organizational unit. Thefailure to adopt constructive, mutually acceptable solutions may result in the dissolution ofthe organization or may generate a temporary balance, based on force. Various responses toconflict, come up in the last phase, the conflict resolution and its many roles are strictlyderived from the existence of multiple types and causes of generating misunderstandings. Ifthe conflicts are resolved constructively they create a satisfactory outcome for all partiesand improve the relationship between opposing parties and the ability to resolve futureconflicts in a constructive way. Conflict resolution can be defined as a philosophy and a setof skills that help individuals or groups to better understand the concept of conflict andresolve it, as long as it occurs in every aspect of our life, being part of our life. However, ifwe can’t stop conflicts it’s up to us if we use the energy around a conflict or if we uselesslywaste our efforts.3. MediationResolving conflicts involves entrusting their traditional justice and conflictresolution on the principle of win-loss (winner-defeated) solution still unresponsive to the1 Tomescu Madalina Considerations on conflict and conflict classification, „Revista Romana deADR”, 1/2012, p. 61280Revista Română de Statistică – Supliment Trim IV/2012

various conflicts we know in the current society, mainly because of economicdiversification and social relationships and the very fast rhythm of our present life.Starting from these considerations a conflict resolution can be achieved throughmediation, with great success in family conflicts, divorce, collective labor disputes,inheritance, co-ownership, contracts, conflicts between students, between employees,political parties or even countries, bringing a better response to the parties to the conflict byfocusing on the interests at stake, as mediation aims at finding affordable and realisticsolutions for both sides in the conflict, in accordance with the law, unlike the traditionalconflict resolution where the focus is mainly on the legal aspects of the case 2 .Participation in the mediation process is voluntary, because mediation does notestablish guilt or innocence of the conflicting parties, the mediator's role is not onedecision, but by providing procedural information, it stimulates the dialogue, facilitatesexchange of views and information between parties, helping the parties to clarify the needsand interests, to overcome communication barriers and get to solving disagreements byfinding mutually beneficial solutions.This environment is based on the parties’ trust in the mediator, the person able tofacilitate negotiations between them and support them to resolve the conflict, by obtaining amutually agreed solution, efficient and sustainable, an optional way of solving conflicts in afriendly way, with a specialized third party as mediator, in terms of neutrality, impartialityand confidentiality.Thus mediation is, above all, the mediator’s art to turn a conflict in an agreementas a result of options generated and selected by the parties, the conflict managementprocess, allowing prevention or resolution of a conflict due to third person’s intervention,being impartial and with no decision power, who guarantees communication betweenpartners and thus helps to restore the social bond.Methods and techniques used by the mediator shall serve only the legitimateinterests and objectives of the parties to the conflict, so the mediator can not impose asolution on parties to the conflict submitted to mediation.Conflicting parties are entitled to be assisted by a lawyer or other persons, asprovided by mutual agreement, but the submissions made during the mediation by theparties to the conflict and by the mediator are confidential to third parties and can not beused as evidence in legal proceedings or arbitration unless the parties make anotheragreement or the law stipulates something else.The mediator will inform the persons who participate in mediation on theobligation of maintaining the confidentiality and will be required to sign a confidentialityagreement, and if, during mediation, there is a situation likely to affect its purpose,neutrality and impartiality of the mediator, he is required to bring it to parties who willdecide on maintaining or breaching the mediation contract.The mediator has the right to abstain and close the mediation being required toreturn the fee proportional to the not covered stages of mediation, or, if appropriate, toensure the continuation of the mediation, the mediation contract terms 3 .If the dispute submitted to mediation presents difficult or legally controversialaspects or from any other specialized field, the mediator, the parties' agreement, mayrequest the standpoint of a specialist in that field, only highlighting controversial issues,without disclosing the parties’ identity.2 Radulescu, Dragos Marian Elemente fundamentale de drept, Universul Juridic Publishing House,Bucharest, 2011, p. 1583 Lisman Fanuta Mediation in civil trial, Universitara Publishing House, Bucharest, 2011, p. 40Revista Română de Statistică – Supliment Trim IV/2012 281

When the conflicting parties reached an agreement, the mediator will assist partiesin drafting the final agreement for mediation, which specifies the commitments of eachparty to settle the conflict, and that is equivalent to a written document under privatesignature.4. Resolving conflicts trough mediationRegardless the type of conflict, mediation has its own time during the conflict,usually in the next phase of confrontation, when the conflict begins to escalate, but the laterthe intervention the more difficult the situation can be relieved so that this interventionwould ideally take place when the disagreement comes up when without waiting for aconfrontation.Sensitivity of a part in choosing the time to use mediation is sufficient todetermine the stage of the conflict, as mediation aims at getting a cognitive response thatprovides a rational solution for each side, accompanied by an affective and behavioralresponse used by each party to change their attitudes and feelings, moving from hatred,desire of fighting and destruction of each other to an atmosphere of peace where they canlive together without conflict.Therefore the results putting away a conflict depend not so much on the content,skills and knowledge as on the parties involved - management relative to the situation as"fleeing "from the conflict (or avoid it) is important to avoid a conflict escalation.The parties’ collaboration leads to an acceptable and realistic solution and it isrelated to honesty, openness and life attitudes of those involved, who choose correctly todescribe the events that led to the conflict, otherwise, you do not want to find out thecauses, and the discussion is limited just to the visible effects of the conflict and by creatinga greenhouse "gases" effect conflict resolution efficiency decreases.A thorough analysis of events is necessary so that the effect on parties to occurafter mediation by preserving and accepting solutions found together, otherwise, in the bestcase, a fragile peace will be broken by a mere misunderstanding , since the problems are infact unresolved.The best way to achieve sustainable results in mediation is the dialogue betweenthe parties, which implies their willingness to get together on a common solution, accordingto a realistic approach that would remove existing prejudices and preconceived ideas, basedon authentic values making it relevant to the expectations of the parties).A dialogue involves the parties desire to communicate, knowing that most of theconflicts occur because of the lack of communication or poor ways of performing it , toclear the problems, namely to determine the positions of the parties to the addressed issues,as an effective way for a better knowledge and mutual understanding and a necessity also inthe process of evolution to find solutions – which instead of cancelling differences ofprinciples between the parties it relies on finding common ground to allow their jointaction in some sense).The work style of mediation depends on the parties’ behavior and personality, butalso on the mediator skill to facilitate communication and above all, on how well he knowswhat actually happened, because knowing the cause he is likely to facilitate the properconduct of both mediation and the positive results which lead to final peace agreement.In order to solve the conflict the mediator and the parties must especiallyunderstand the motivation, know the feelings, motivations and concerns of each of them,just as the parties must know the methods discussed in mediation, to interact with eachother as and with the mediator as well.282Revista Română de Statistică – Supliment Trim IV/2012

Only when the parties know well the methods and styles approached in mediationthere is a communication likely to substantially contribute to positive developments inaddressing the current conflict, through a rational understanding of the contribution of eachparty, without making them give in to reasoning not to pressure.The other reason that parties demonstrate in mediation is often seen as a startingpoint for dialogue, the actors involved can be centered on existing conjunctures and theirtransformation processes.Thus, the negotiated procedure is optimal when the parties do not want only tomake or obtain concessions consented subjective negotiation positions, but rather - they tryto settle the basic dispute , being unbiased, their position being of neither parties.In this respect there should be clearly defined the mutual interests in a transparentand total sincerity, without the slightest recourse to dissimulation or fear, and that’s why itbegins with wording out the problems to be solved as answers to questions such as: whatdoes not work, what happened and what was the evolution of conflict, which are theelements that prevent the solving of the situation.Analyzing the answers to these questions we can get a diagnosis of the currentsituation, insisting on the causes that prevent the problem, because depending on this wecan find solutions to solve the theoretical and practical ways agreed upon.Once established these measures and their implementation way there can beapproached the methods of defusing conflict and peace between the parties, going to beestablished the guarantees to make this peace long-last, respectively what these parties dowhen the mediation is over so that the last conflict would no longer appear.5. ConclusionsA conflict is an inevitable phenomenon of social life, because we live in thesociety with an unprecedented people’s closeness, through the existence of urban life in thecommunities exceeding one million.In these conditions the conflict is less important than the way it is approached,namely whether the solution found is positive or negative. Thus we can solve a conflict byresorting to a court where a judge will decide who is right and who is wrong, doing“justice", even if through this method both parties get to be pleased with the solution andconflict is more amplified than put down.We also appeal to a leading authority, and this is specific to closed communities tosettle the dispute based on moral or religious authority available, but that does notguarantee either the solving of the conflict, as it only establishes a winner and a loser.So the best way of resolving the conflict seems to appeal to mediation, the parties,in the presence of a mediator, a third specialist, impartial and neutral, to try to clarify theunderlying causes of conflict to achieve a settlement thereof.Note that this is a method where no one loses, everyone gets a benefit becausebesides the conflict solved even by the parties, themselves, its causes are found, so thefuture this can be avoided , by restoring communication between the parties.The mediator neither gives solutions nor decides who is right or wrong he onlyrestores, through way used in mediation, a safe and communication for the parties to beable to reach, through dialogue, from a state conflict to one of collaboration, which can bemaintained even after the mediator’s departure, because only the parties can determine whatis best for them and especially how they want to "exploit" the conflict in their interests byusing the energy created around a conflict, to rediscover communication with others or towaste their energy.Revista Română de Statistică – Supliment Trim IV/2012 283

References[1]. Lisman Fanuta (2011) Mediation in civil trial, Universitara Publishing House,Bucharest.[2]. Radulescu, Dragos (2011) Marian Elemente fundamentale de drept, Universul JuridicPublishing, Bucharest.[3]. Tomescu Madalina (2012) Considerations on conflict and conflict classification,„Revista Romana de ADR, No.1/2012, Nomina Lex Publishing House, Bucharest.284Revista Română de Statistică – Supliment Trim IV/2012

The Expat Managers Supremacy against the LocalManagers in Romania – Myth or RealityAssociate Professor Cezar MILITARU PhDcezarm2001@yahoo.comAssistent Professor Adriana ZANFIR PhDzanfir.adriana@gmail.comAssistent Professor Ana Maria DINU PhDanadinu13@yahoo.com“Dimitrie Cantemir” Christian UniversityAbstractIn the context of global economic crisis, the management of multinationalorganizations have undergone significant changes, becoming more sensitive at the strategicmatters. In the managerial leadership multinationals are faced again with the eternaldilemma: choosing a foreign manager in the top management of local organizations orpromoting Romanian managers who, according to experts, could successfully replace theexisting management. It is there or not a supremacy of foreign managers against theRomanian ones or it is just a myth? Are the Romanian managers as well prepared as theforeign ones and can bring better results for the business or the already established trendwill continue for expatriate managers? Given what is happening in the Romanian businessenvironment, we can say that the choice of foreign managers is currently the best solutionfor multinational companies.Key words: globalization, multinational companies, expatriate managers,personnel recruitment.JEL Classification: M12, M211. IntroductionFor the multinationals management the economic recession was an importantlesson for survival in a turbulent and unpredictable economic environment. The past threeyears have shown how important it is for the management to have a long term vision giventhe risks that the company deals with. Currently, the negative effects of the economic crisisare still felt pretty strong, although some countries have begun to record a low economicgrowth. Maintaining the leading position on the market depends on the managementresponse to the current challenges that in the literature are described in the form of“separate dimensions of analytical effects” or designed as a “management circuit” wherethe learned post-crisis lessons ideally offer, feedback to prevention, planning and response 1 .1 A.N. Peral, Managementul crizei: o perspectivă asupra provocărilor şi a oportunităţilor pentrumanagerii publici şi liderii care se confruntă cu dezastre, Administraţie şi Management public, Nr. 6,Bucureşti: p. 76.Revista Română de Statistică – Supliment Trim IV/2012 285

In this turbulent and unpredictable environment it is difficult for the companies toachieve their aims without well-defined management strategies. Strategic managementinvolves a common goal which shows a grid of decisions, setting the priorities 2 .During its evolution, an international organization permanently develops its ownculture. If it reflects national culture at first, with the expansion of businessinternationalization process, organization also takes more and more elements of the culturesfrom the implantation countries. Parallel to this process, the company is developing its ownpersonnel policy. This includes employees’ selection, training, evaluating, rewarding andmotivating. The relations between the management company and its employees are stronglyinfluenced by corporate culture. Once the business involvement in the implantationcountries and the various activity forms increase, the company must adopt a multiculturalpolicy, both in achieving these activities and in the relationships with the employees. Forthis reason, recruitment policies, training and rewarding staff must be adapted to eachcountry where the company wants to expand its business 3 .2. ContentsIn Romania, multinationals emergence and the ongoing trend of globalization hasbrought a number of new issues in organizations recruitment policy. Multinational entrantshad three options in choosing top management to lead their subsidiaries or branches: tosend managers from the parent country, to appoint Romanian managers or managers from athird country. Generally, in the early years, multinational companies have chosen to sendmanagers from the parent country, and once the development and strengthening of businesson the Romanian market, they are gradually replaced by Romanian managers or managersof third countries. Literature and multinationals practice offer us a wide range ofadvantages or disadvantages for each of these options. With or without a local manager,multinationals have continued to boom on the Romanian markets. The financial crisis haschanged the situation a little, multinationals becoming more attentive in this respect.We could say that this led to a certain pattern, a recent pattern that the expatreplaces another expat or a Romanian manager. Cases where Romanian managers takemandates from foreign managers are increasingly rare. On the other hand, more commonare the situations where Romanians go abroad on leading positions. This phenomenoncreates a series of questions because it generates principles that seem to cancel each other:how is it that we import so many managers, although in other markets Romanians’ skillsare sought for top management positions in multinational corporations? Indeed, Romanianscannot lead themselves but can lead others?Experts say that foreign managers are no less important than the Romanian ones,are not any smarter or better prepared, or less honest. They just have a different attitude,their leadership position not being called into question. They know how to settle conflicts,to attract the employees respect and to be heard. They are more disciplined and moreorganized than Romanians because of the education system in which they were raised andprolonged exposure to a much more structured social and economic system and thanks tothe cultural values system they developed. They also have long-term thinking, planning andbudgeting skills and an objective way to address the arising issues, unlike Romanianmanagers 4 . There are also a number of disadvantages that the foreign managers especially2 Militaru, A. Zanfir, Managemenentul companiilor multinaţionale-provocări ale perioadei actuale, în„Dimensiuni ale crizei societăţii contemporane”, Editura Prouniversitaria, Bucreşti, 2011, p. 3123 C. Militaru, Managementul afacerilor internaţionale, Editura Prouniversitaria, Bucureşti, 2009, p. 914 A. Răduţă, Manager străin vs. Manager român. De ce nu suntem în stare să ne conducem singuri?,Revista Business Magazin, 12 februarie 2012, p. 12286Revista Română de Statistică – Supliment Trim IV/2012

have when they run a company with local shareholding. The cultural inadequacy, the lackof knowledge of the Romanian language, the lack of informal communication with theemployees, the fact that they don’t know the legislation, the customs, the way of workingand interaction with the local authorities, the tendency to shift the way of working or othercultural elements from their country of origin, without attempting to adapt these issues atthe local specific, additional costs of preparing them and their families, are some aspectsthat add advantage to choosing local managers.On the other hand, an expat manager seems to present a number of advantages inthe eyes of employees. Intercultural experience, language skills, life experience and yearsspent working in a multinational seem to turn them into valuable and essential employeesfor the company. It can be said that nationally there is a sense of inferiority in relation withforeign managers, due to a lack of potential reporting for the local managers compared toother nations. So, there is a myth of foreign manager which is somewhat hyperbolized. Theforeign manager is seen almost as an institution in itself, with a envious curiosity and someawe of him expecting spectacular results. But, most times it turned out that Romanianmanagers have done things and had results as good as if not better than the foreign ones.Not once was it told that Romanian managers were used only with growth. However, thereare Romanian managers who have experienced triple-digit inflation, through currencyshock or a dramatic unfriendly tax with a higher power endurance and adaptability tochange than the expat managers. It seems that the lack of the local managers is a greaterconfidence in themselves and in their ability to succeed. Some experts believe that thecoming of foreign managers in Romania is mainly due to the economic and financial crisisthat has led to an excess of managers in the West available for developing countries.Obviously, they say, those who come on these premises are not, for the most part, the bestmanagers in the West, because otherwise they would find opportunities on larger markets 5 .Part of expat managers, unfortunately both for the Romanian economy and for them, theyare "parked" in local organizations, their leadership is uninteresting, they don’t add valueand do nothing but create conflicts in the local organization. But there are other categoriesof expat managers who come for difficult tasks and add value to the organization.If the organization is in its early years in Romania, expat managers are usuallyexperienced people, towards the end of their careers and have the role of "evangelists" inthe local organization. If the organization is on a downward spiral, people with greatintellectual power and usually ambitious and determined leaders are usually sent"turnaround" and their legacy remains for another one or two generations of leaders.According to a study by the New Europe Foundation, another category of expats isthat of those who come to learn, to develop themselves and who are generally at the firstlevel of responsibility or role in an emerging market. According to this study, the majorityof foreign managers that are members of the boards directors of the largest 100 localcompanies by turnover, are at their first promotion or are approaching retirement.According to the fifth edition of the Yearbook "Who's Who in business 2012 -most important 1.000 business people", almost a quarter (23%) of the most important 1.000local business people are of foreign origin, most are executives in banks, working incompanies from the consumer goods field and in the telecommunications sector.Most expat managers are working in banks, because, usually, in this area, CEOmandates are given to foreigners from the parent country of financial group. A significantproportion of expats is in the consumer goods sector, at the top of the biggest players in the5 www.zf.roRevista Română de Statistică – Supliment Trim IV/2012 287

markets in which they operate. They are expats who have, usually, mandates of maximum2-3 years and who have well-defined growth targets in the short term, so their careerdevelopment within the same company depends on the success achieved in Romania. Intelecommunications, most expats are in the first management line of the largest companies -Orange, Vodafone and Cosmote. The least foreign executives are in the industry of media& advertising, this area being dominated by Romanian managers who have developedbusinesses starting from nothing. Another category of expat managers are the ones that,because of restructuring at the overall organization level, are assigned to Romania, valuableemployees, who are contributing as long as they don`t consider this role as a retrogradationor they find the joy of working here as they discover the people.With all the current problems in Romania, it still remains an attractive destinationto entrepreneurs. Romania's integration in the European Union, quality improvement of lifeat least for expatriate managers with generous compensation packages, the existence of aseveral options for themselves and their families in Romania, (eg. regarding the programschool of children), cultural and artistic life, social environment and the living conditions,free movement of people, are arguments that support this idea.At the beginning of the economic crisis, experts in labor recruitment were of theopinion that the entry flow of expats in Romania will be slower, simply because it was not agood time for changes and that, ultimately, the salary package of a foreign is greater than aRomanian, if we take into account extra wages benefits or installation payment. However,foreign managers continue to be brought into Romania to occupy top managementpositions. Over 40 of the top 100 most valuable companies in our country changed thegeneral manager or president since 2009. In 22 cases the expats have replaced other expats,nine foreign managers have been appointed to a function that, until that moment, was heldby a Romanian, five Romanians had replaced other Romanians and just four expats werereplaced by Romanians. There are only examples of the most valuable companies inRomania, but, in addition, many other similar movements took place in the market in thelast four years.Companies that have made management changes in the last year mainly tried toadapt their costs, capabilities and management strategies to the economic parameters of thecurrent Romanian market, in connection with what the local market can produce as incomein lack of foreign investment that supported it in the growth years.Under these conditions, changes in local companies' executive teams have beenlargely related by the "downshifting" adjustment of the Romanian economy, without beinga clear trend in the choice of local managers versus expat managers. The conclusion is thatin the coming years we will see foreign managers leading local companies, especiallywhere foreign companies' business model aims transferring managers from the country oforigin or from countries with a success history, in countries where new branches are openfor better control. There are times when cost-benefit analysis, were achieved after severalyears after the implantation of a branch in a country such as Romania and required therelocation of the activities in other countries.On the other hand, Romanians will go out for prominent positions, so that thebalance of inputs and outputs, if it can be called as such, could get close to an equilibrium.Currently, the trend in business environment is still to choose a foreign managerwhen costs allow and the situation requires, not only at the level of senior management butalso for CFO and IT manager and opt for a Romanian when he has proven expertise andmanagerial potential in both the company and the market. Another situation is when theinternal system of succession requires the appointment of an expat, so we can not talk abouta preference of a Romanian organization, but a condition of the group level.288Revista Română de Statistică – Supliment Trim IV/2012

Or, simply, maybe it is about the prudency of multinationals and its strong desireto be very methodical and rigorous, in which case, the appointment of a Romanian - amanager that is known only after his CV - is an impossible option.It is normal for a foreign company to send a foreign manager here. During a crisisor economic instability many multinationals adopt more conservative strategies, control theoperations in a tighter way and then it is natural to give jobs to people they known, ratherthan rely on people who are not known.In Romania, sthere still is no a strong school of management and a powerfulbusiness environment and this is seen and stands out more than it should, because we are inconstant competition with what comes from the outside. Even so, if we evaluate theperformance, we see that the value added in Romanian companies is higher than that ofcompanies with foreign capital and management. So we don't have a competence problem,but one of experince.Factors such as lack of foreign investment or the imposibility to develop newprojects, corelated with political and reputational turbulences in Romania, had influencedmultinationals options. It is impossible to trust people if you cannot integrate them in acoherent and predictable framework. First of all you need a minimum of confidence in acountry if you want to have full confidence in its managers.3. ConclusionsThe advantages of expats coming to Romania are multiple, so nobody can beagainst them. There were situations where young Romanian managers were able to learn alot of things from foreign managers. The different culture and mentality of expats arereflected in their management style and in the way they approach problems duringactivities. Although there was some controversy about the fact that they occupy jobs andreduce the Romanians' opportunities, the place and role of expat managers are elementsdefined in the local corporate world. In recent years, the trend of largest companies was toattract managers from outside, thinking that they can get better results. However, realityshows that in business the "hero myth" or the "perfect savior" does not exist. There are onlyvery well-trained people who regardless of their place of birth have succeded, throughspecial skills, to get good managers and to impose in the business world. Obviously, amongthem we can identify a significant number of Romanian managers.References[1]. C. Militaru, Managementul afacerilor internaţionale, Editura Prouniversitaria,Bucureşti, 2009[2]. C. Militaru, A. Zanfir, Managemenentul companiilor multinaţionale-provocări aleperioadei actuale, în „Dimensiuni ale crizei societăţii contemporane”, EdituraProuniversitaria, Bucreşti, 2011[3]. A. Muşetescu, C. Militaru (coordonatori), Global perspectives in managementmarketing,Editura AuthorHouse, Boomington, 2012[4]. N. Peral, Managementul crizei: o perspectivă asupra provocărilor şi a oportunităţilorpentru managerii publici şi liderii care se confruntă cu dezastre, Administraţie şiManagement public, Nr. 6, Bucureşti, 2012[5]. A. Răduţă, Manager străin vs. Manager român. De ce nu suntem în stare să neconducem singuri?, Revista Business Magazin, 12 februarie 2012[6]. www.zf.roRevista Română de Statistică – Supliment Trim IV/2012 289

Elements for an Interpretation of the Reportbetween Culture and CivilizationProfessor Dan CRUCERU PhD„Artifex” University of BucharestAbstractThe attempt itself to give a rigorous interpretation to the concept of culture iswidely met and inexorable for a scientific approach on the cultural phenomenon. Theemphasis on some points of view, of new orientations regarding the definition of theconcept of culture is necessary, first because the theory on culture starts from a dialoguewith another philosophical acceptations. In the second row, because the attempt to delimitthe concept of culture, assumes a proper methodology, for analysis, for the interpretation ofa domain of wide complexity. In the third line, because this phenomenon, both materiallyand spiritually, does not constitute on empty ground, but by following the entire evolutionof humanity.Key words: culture, proper methodology, phenomenon, material, spiritual,evolution of humanity, value, civilization.JEL Classification: A12, A13Încercarea de a da o interpretare riguroasă conceptului de cultură este des întâlnităşi inexorabilă unei abordări ştiinţifice a fenomenului cultural. Evidenţierea unor puncte devedere, a unor orientări cu privire la definirea conceptului de cultură este necesară, înprimul rând, pentru că teoria asupra culturii porneşte de la un dialog cu celelalte accepţiunifilozofice. În al doilea rând, pentru că încercarea de delimitare a conceptului de cultură,presupune o metodologie proprie, de analiză, de interpretare a unui domeniu de o largăcomplexitate. În al treilea rând, pentru că acest fenomen, deopotrivă material şi spiritual, nuse constituie pe un teren gol, ci urmărind întreaga evoluţie a umanităţii.Este firesc ca în aceste condiţii fenomenul cultural să fie studiat, iar cercetarea săpornească de la o raportare critică la orientările filosofice constituite.Vorbind despre existenţa unor tipologii ale definiţiilor culturii, A. L. Kroeber şi Cl.Kluckhohn[1] le grupează în: descriptive, care descriu sfera culturii, evidenţiind elementelece alcătuiesc această zonă şi se constituie într-un ansamblu; de tip istoric, care izvorăsc dincaracterul sistemelor culturale în evoluţia lor istorică; de tip normativist, în care cultura esteprin ea însăşi redusă la un sistem de norme sau de simboluri; de tip psihologic, care concepcultura ca o structurare a psihicului uman; de tip structural şi genetic, caracterizate prinfaptul că identifică în ultimă instanţă cultura cu socialul, cu totalitatea fenomenelor caredeosebesc societatea de natură, aria conceptului de cultură fiind, în acest caz, lărgită într-omodalitate nepermis de mare.Autorilor citaţi le revine meritul de a fi realizat un inventar sistematizat alconceptului de cultură, abordat faţă de diverse fenomene sau stări de referinţă cum ar finatura, societatea, individul uman, conştiinţa sa, comportamentul, sistemul motivaţionalbiologic, psihologic, social şi istoric sau civilizaţia, cu elementele sale obiective sisubiective. Ei înşişi studiază cultura şi se referă la domeniul său prin considerarea a treirelaţii fundamentale, ce au menirea să evite unilateralitatea: raporturile omului cu natura, cusemenii săi, cu valoarea, ceea ce, fără să o precizeze, ne îndreptăţeşte să conchidem că văd290Revista Română de Statistică – Supliment Trim IV/2012

cultura depinzând de mediul material şi spiritual ce-1 înconjoară pe om, integrat încolectivitate.Tratarea enunţiativă a opiniilor concentrate asupra înţelesurilor şi sensurilorconceptului de cultură, ca de altfel şi o abordare critică trebuie să se prevaleze de acceptareaformulărilor diferiţilor gânditori, cu calităţile diverselor enunţuri, dar şi criticând ceeace prejudiciază esenţa concepţiei[2].Unghiurile de vedere din care abordează fenomenul cultural complex, etnologul,istoricul, psihologul social, sociologul marchează unele distincţii chiar în interiorulconceptului, sintetizate de americanul Eduard Sapir în trei mari categorii: „înţelesul tehnicetnologic”, ce se referă la conservarea culturii într-un sistem de tradiţii ce se transmitemoştenitorilor, şi care este esenţialmente fundamental pentru coeziunea societăţii (RichardMc Keon); „idealul convenţional de rafinament cultural” ce se distinge în special la elitelesociale, capabile să exteriorizeze un scepticism circumstanţial raportat la idealul cultural,expresie elocventă a solilocviului şi însingurării spiritului; îmbinarea factorului colectiv încrearea şi selecţia valorilor semnificative activităţii grupului cu elementul individual, psihicselectiv şi coercitiv. Eliminarea factorilor materiali, determinanţi în ansamblul sociocultural,face ca această poziţie să fie unilaterală şi, evident, inexpresivă.Dealtfel, toate aceste puncte de reper specificate de E. Sapir nu pot constituipuncte de referinţă într-o abordare generală a fenomenului cultural, ceea ce le împinge spreunilateralitate sau spre o tratare incompletă, deformată şi evident lipsită de veridicitateaargumentelor reprezentative.Un gânditor francez de prestigiu, Armand Cuvillier[3], distinge în conceptul decultură câteva elemente definitorii, fenomene fie concrete, înregistrabile, fie abstracte,dobândite prin cunoaştere, transmisie, experienţă social-istorică. Acestea sunt produselemateriale ale societăţii, fenomenele de comportament şi relaţie, elementele psihologice,subiective, de conştiinţă ale membrilor colectivităţii, care devin fapte de cultură numai înrelaţia perenă a individului cu mediu. Păstrând nota de relativitate dialectică a progresuluicultural, distincţiile operate de A. Cuvillier satisfac doar într-o relativă şi incertă măsurătratarea globală a faptului cultural. Fenomenele materiale sunt culturale prin însăşi unitateamaterialului şi a idealului ce le compun, ca şi prin conştientizarea constituirii, manifestăriişi transmisiei lor. Acestea sunt inseparabile şi evident o tratare distinctă sau trunchiatăpoate sărăci sau unilateraliza conceptul de cultură.O altă încercare sintetizatoare şi explicativă o face David Bidney, autorul unuitratat de antropologie, care procedează la o largă investigare a conceptului de cultură, princriteriile ce le stabileşte în delimitarea acestor concepţii, ca şi prin evidenţierea diferiteloropinii formulate. „O cultură constă, spune Bidney, în moduri dobândite sau cultivate deconduită şi gândire ale indivizilor dintr-o societate dată, ca şi din idealuri şi instituţiiintelectuale, artistice si sociale pe care membrii societăţii le profesează şi se străduiesc să lerespecte”[4].Elementele intelectuale, raţionale ale culturii sunt deci tocmai acelea care definescfenomenul. Individul, fiinţa culturală, îşi realizează potenţele sale naturale numaiparticipând la viaţa culturală, la activitatea instituţiilor culturale. Dar D. Bidney, deşisesizează unele aspecte ale raporturilor culturale, neglijează creaţia valorilor ca act componental faptului de cultură, ceea ce, evident, mărgineşte şi restrânge sfera de cuprindere aculturii, evoluţia şi dinamica sa.Personalitatea tipică, reprezentativă pentru categoria definiţiilor de tip aşa-zispozitivist este Ralph Linton, care caracterizează cultura drept un ansamblu de reprezentări,de adevăruri şi de cunoştinţe care sunt asimilate de indivizii unei colectivităţi pe caleatradiţiei, a transmisiilor culturale determinate de schimburile între epoci şi între generaţii.Revista Română de Statistică – Supliment Trim IV/2012 291

,,O cultură este configuraţia comportamentelor învăţate şi a rezultatelor lor, ale cărorelemente componente sunt împărtăşite şi transmise de către membrii unei societăţi date”[5].Un asemenea tip de definiţie este deficitar în primul rând prin faptul că nu includeîntre caracteristicile culturii, nu o explică prin semnificaţia momentului axiologic, nusurprinde faptul că cultura este un ansamblu de valori, aflat într-o indestructibilă unitatefuncţională, finalizată prin funcţia sa socială, iar în al doilea rând eludează tocmai aceastăfuncţionalitate socială a culturii, minimalizând rolul social, intrinsec fenomenului cultural.Tipul de definiţii normativiste consideră cultura ca un sistem normativ ce nupermite relevarea elementelor constitutive, alcătuitoare ale culturii şi care este caracterizat,într-o ultimă analiză, printr-o rigiditate particulară, care face, prin acest sistem de norme, desimboluri riguroase, dificil procesul de interpretare nuanţată a fenomenului cultural. Unadin personalităţile reprezentative ale unei asemenea interpretări este filosoful MoritzSchlick, care consideră cultura ca o organizare cuprinzătoare şi hotărâtoare, conformă cu unanume plan ce permite o mai bună pătrundere şi recunoaştere în sfera socialului.Definiţiile metafizice fac parte din gruparea care procedează la o separaţie rigidă,la o contrapunere absolută a sferelor vieţii materiale şi spirituale, a culturii materiale de ceaspirituală, considerându-le fără legătură şi fără raporturi, fără o determinare reciprocă şi oinfluenţă biunivocă. Astfel, sociologul Max Scheler, reduce cultura la latura sa spirituală,pornind de la o distincţie ce o realizează în sistemului său sociologic, între sociologia reală,ce are drept obiect modalitatea de funcţionare a unor factori geografici, politici, economicietc. şi sociologia culturii, ce studiază factorii de ordin ideal. Dar el depăşeşte limiteleizolaţionismului fenomenologic, făcând tentativa de a căuta căile de legătură între formelegândirii şi acţiunilor sociale.Definiţiile de tip culturalist concep cultura ca o abstracţie ideală, ca un fenomen deordin general şi abstract, care nu se află în interacţiune cu alte structuri, cu alte zone aleactivităţilor umane.Principala carenţă este conceperea culturii ca independentă de structurile sociale,de dinamica vieţii sociale. Asemenea definiţii consideră cultura ca un sistem închis, lipsitde permeabilitate, de relaţii şi raporturi cu lumea înconjurătoare. Cultura apare astfel ca unsistem suprabiologic, absolut autonom, care nu se raportează în nici un fel la altedeterminări ale socialului. În acest sens, caracteristice sunt opiniile formulate de C. L.Strauss, K. Manheim, L. White, autori ai unor exegeze asupra problemelor de sociologie aculturii sau ale evoluţiei fenomenului cultural. Pentru L. White, cultura este ,,o organizaţiede fenomene: acte (modele de conduită); obiecte (unelte, lucruri făcute cu ajutoruluneltelor); idei (convingeri, cunoştinţe) şi sentimente (atitudini, aprecieri)”[6].Deşi considerăm această viziune de izolare a culturii de structurile sociale, deabstractizare ideală, de reducere a faptului cultural la valoarea semnificaţiei sale, drept unilaterală,nu putem să nu apreciem contribuţia adusă de autori în selectarea şi studierea unorfapte de cultură, legităţi şi modalităţi de funcţionare a culturii.Definirea conceptului de cultură pe temeiul unor principii de ordin biologic sauprin exacerbarea rolului factorului psihologic, are ca punct de plecare, fie teoria lamarkianăa eredităţii, care a cunoscut adepţi şi pe planul culturii, fie implicaţiile teoriei freudiste cuprivire la „hoarda primitivă sau complexul Oedip”, fie teoria mitului a lui Jung. Asemeneadefiniţii pot fi incluse în tipul aşa-zis naturalist. Într-un asemenea mod concepe OswaldSpengler cultura, în manieră organicist vitalistă, folosind analogia dintre ,,cultură” şi„organism”, rupând cultura de baza ei reală, umană, de sistemul motivaţional aloamenilor[7]. Spengler ignoră cauzele sociale, conţinutul social al culturii, modalitateacontradictorie de evoluţie a culturii în cadrul social, reducând-o la o simplă organizaresufletească, interioară a individului, la o alcătuire şi reconstrucţie a predispoziţiei sale292Revista Română de Statistică – Supliment Trim IV/2012

sufleteşti. Este caracteristică încercarea de a defini trăsăturile, particularităţile diferitelorculturi, în diverse epoci ale dezvoltării istorice prin intermediul „sufletului careîmbătrâneşte” — viziune organicistă care prevalează structurile biologice ca definitoriipentru tipul de cultură produs de societate. Teza idealistă a determinismului sufletesc aredrept consecinţă concluzia că ,,marile culturi produc popoarele”, că nu există deci o istoriea popoarelor, ci doar o istorie a marilor culturi. Evident, cu o asemenea idee nu putem fi deacord, aşa cum nu putem accepta nici faptul că fenomenul cultural nu poate fi definit.O poziţie mai subtilă faţă de raportul culturii cu societatea o întâlnim în punctul devedere exprimat de H. Marcuse. Pentru gânditorul american, cultura este ,,un proces deumanizare caracterizat prin efortul colectiv de a apăra existenţa omului, de a satisface luptapentru existenţă sau de a o ţine sub control, de a întări organizarea productivă a societăţii,de a dezvolta capacităţile spirituale ale omului, de a micşora şi sublinia agresiunile, violenţaşi mizeria”[8].Critica întreprinsă sistemului social capitalist contemporan vizează deopotrivăsocietatea, organizarea ei, influenţele negative pe care tehnica si civilizaţia consumului demasă le au asupra individului unidimensionalizat ce poate fi liber doar prin muncă şicultură, pe care o înţelege ca pe o lume a spiritului. În această epocă burgheză, adevărul şifrumosul sunt socotite accesibile, spune Marcuse, dar cum promisiunile burgheze nu se vorputea realiza, se construieşte sub formă de cultură iluzia împlinirii umane. În acest sens,cultura burgheză este o cultură afirmativă, ,,forma istorică sub care au fost conservatenevoile omului care depăşesc simpla reproducţie materială a existenţei".Marcuse oscilează însă între diverşi poli de referinţă: scopuri morale, valoriintelectuale, fapte de cultură, toate orientate în scopul organizării, diviziunii şi direcţionăriisocietăţii. El limitează cultura la un univers specific constituit din raportul valori-fapte, ca şidin identitatea de rasă, naţiune, religie etc. Opunând cultura — civilizaţiei, autorul iniţiază omatrice operaţională a raportului propus pentru argumentarea necoincidenţei celor douădomenii:Civilizaţiemunca materialăzile de muncădomeniul necesităţiinaturagândirea operaţionalăCulturămunca intelectualăzile de repausdomeniul libertăţiispiritulgândirea neoperaţionalăSoluţia eliberării din societatea capitalistă pe care o propune Marcuse esteemanciparea gândirii, a cercetării, a învăţământului şi studiului în raport cu sistemul devalori şi comportamente existent. Ceea ce pare paradoxal este faptul că, deşi Marcusecritică societatea capitalistă în ansamblul său, soluţia o găseşte pe planul individului, alculturii şi eliberării sale prin ştiinţă. Catastrofa (şi din acest punct de vedere Marcuse estetributar unor teorii anterioare) către care se îndreaptă cultura burgheză contemporană estegenerată de civilizaţia tehnică, de unidimensionalizarea pe care aceasta o exercită asupraindivizilor. Încercând să determine natura culturii, antropologul M. I. Herskovits considerăomul ca un animal social caracterizat prin cultură (sinonimă cu tradiţia şi civilizaţia). Culturaeste mediul omului menţinut în două cadre: natural şi social. Ea este universală (însăfiecare manifestare umană poate fi considerată unică), stabilă (însă de asemenea dinamică),determinând în mare măsură cursul vieţii noastre (fără a impune însă gândirea noastrăconştientă)[9]. În acest fel, cultura, creată de om, devine mediul său de determinat obiectiv.Problema este însă dacă cultura poate fi considerată o funcţie a minţii umane saudacă ea există în sine şi pentru sine. Este firească tendinţa culturii, ca atribut uman, de a seRevista Română de Statistică – Supliment Trim IV/2012 293

ăsfrânge asupra omului. Ea devine astfel un element esenţial al comportamentului uman,pentru că fiind modul de viaţă al unui popor, iar societatea, ansamblul organizat de indivizi,aceştia urmează un mod de viaţă dat. Integrarea individului în societate se face prinsocializare (dobândirea unui status şi rol) şi inculturaţie (formele şi mijloacele de educaţie).Ideea formulată însă de C. Levy Strauss în analiza unor trăsături definitorii aleculturii primitive[10], potrivit căreia este greu pentru orice cercetător să spună unde setermină natura şi unde începe cultura, vine să ateste marea complexitate a acestei probleme.Datoria cercetătorului este de a desprinde ceea ce reprezintă activitatea umană deproducere a unor valori culturale, de ceea ce reprezintă valorile biologice. Această dificultatea creat diferite poziţii, chiar opuse în teoria culturii. Am menţiona acele scrieri încare se admite că activitatea culturală nu ar fi specific umană, ci biologică şi că se întindede la regnul animal spre om. Cu alte cuvinte, omul ar fi doar o etapă în dezvoltarea culturii,mult mai veche decât specia[11]. Există şi un punct de vedere opus, după care cultura arreprezenta o structură a societăţii care apare într-un anumit stadiu de dezvoltare asocialului: deci, a existat o istorie a societăţii fără cultură[12]. Evident, cu o asemeneapărere nu putem fi de acord. Nu există cultură fără societate, fără oameni şi nici societatefără cultură. Aceasta se poate naşte atunci când sunt împlinite nevoile economice sau cândo societate este eliberată de grijile existenţei sale. Nu trebuie înţeles însă că factoruleconomic, numai în sensul abundenţei, condiţionează cultura, ci şi restricţiile sau stagnărileeconomice. Faptele acestea, astăzi banale, nu mai permit negarea raportului de condiţionaredintre cultura materială şi cultura spirituală, dintre economic şi spiritual. Dar nici nu putemreduce, în chip simplist, dezvoltarea culturii la dezvoltarea economică, pentru că astfel nuam putea explica unele perioade ale culturii universale. Este necesar să considerăm raportulîntre cultură şi civilizaţie în sensul dezvoltării sociale, al definirii civilizaţiei drept cultură înacţiune. Cultura nu poate fi concepută nici ca o simplă prelungire a manifestărilorbiologicului în societate, nici ca o stare înaltă a dezvoltării socialului. Ea este un act deumanizare; un act social şi uman în acelaşi timp, pentru că nu poate fi abordată decât înraport cu personalitatea umană, cu structura sa bio-psiho-socio-culturală..Bibliografie selectivă[1]. L. Kroeber şi Clyde Kluckhohn, Culture. A critical Rewiew Concepts andDefinitions, Massachussets, U.S.A[2]. Vezi G. F. Kneller, Educational Anthropology, New York, W. E. Mühlmannund E. W. Muller, Kulturanthropologie, Koln—Berlin, Lalande, Vocabulairetechnique et critique de la philosophie, ed. a IX-a, Paris P. Foulquierer, Dictionnairede la langue philosophique, Paris[3]. A. Cuvillier, Textes choisis des auteurs philosophiques, Libr. Armand Colin, Paris[4]. David Bidney, Theoretical Anthropology, New York. p. 30[5]. Ralph Linton, Fundamentul cultural al personalităţii, Ed. Ştiinţifică Bucureşti p. 72[6]. L. White, Culturological versus Psychological Interpretations of Human Behavior,în „American Sociological Review”, p. 693.[7]. Oswald Spengler, Der Untergang des Abendlandes, München, Beck[8]. Herbert Marcuse, Kultur und Gesellschaft, II, Suhrkamp, Frankfurt, p. 148[9]. M.I. Herskovits, Les bases de l’anthropologie culturelle, Payot, Paris, p. 7-9[10]. C. Lévy-Strauss, Les structures élémentaire de la parenté, P.U.F., p. 8-9[11]. Otto Klineberg, Psychologie Sociale, tom. II, P.U.F., în care-l citează cu aceeaşipărere, pe Fr. Boas, Anthropology,p. 79.[12]. Adamson Hoebel, The Nature of Culture in Man, Culture and Society, New York,Oxford University Press294Revista Română de Statistică – Supliment Trim IV/2012

Development of Social Insurance ModelsAna (CARP) ANTON PhDkarp_ana@yahoo.comAbstractThe literature related to the social security systems is devoted to the calculation ofaspects and implications regarding the privatization of the system, the elaboration ofmacroeconomic models and the effects this change could lead to. This paper studies themost relevant approaches on the social security models.Key words: approach, system, benefit, model, criteriaJEL Classification: H55Siegmann (2010) a calculat ratele minime nominale de finanţare pentru prestaţiidefinite (DB) bazate pe o utilitate aşteptată care pot fi atinse într-un sistem de pensii alecărui contribuţii sunt definite (DC). Cu ajutorul metodei Monte Carlo utilitatea estecalculată pentru trei specificaţii: puterea utilităţii, media deficitului şi abaterea mediedezavantaj.Pentru schema DC, în funcţie de aversiunea faţă de risc, nivelul minimacceptabil al ratelor de finanţare este cuprins între 0,87 şi 1,20 în termeni nominali. Cu unnivel al aversiunii faţă de risc de 5 şi într-un sistem în care contribuţia este fixă, raportulratelor de finanţare este cuprins între 0,87 şi 0,98. Este de aşteptat ca valoarea aşteptată desolidaritate între generaţii, în cazul diversificării participanţilor, să fie mare.La o rată de finanţare de 1,30 într-un sistem DB, un participant la un plan de pensiiDC trebuie să plătească o contribuţie cu 2,7-6.1% mai mare pentru a atinge un nivel deutilitate egal.Modelul conturilor individuale este tratat în literatura de specialitate deGreenwald, Stiglitz (1986), Bjorklund (1993) Arnott, Richard, B. Greenwald, Stiglitz(1994), Asher (1994), Feldstein, Martin, Daniel Altman (1998), Folster, Trofimov (1999),Orzag, M.J., Orzag, P.R., Snower, Stiglitz (1999), Folster (2000), Vodopivec, Yun (2002).Hernæs, Piggott, Zhang, Strøm (2010) au elaborat un studiu referitor la pensiileocupaţionale care se întâlnesc în marile firme, cu negocieri salariale descentralizate şi cuun grad ridicat de sindicalizare. Impozitul pe câştiguri este partajat între angajator-angajat,iar pensiile ocupaţionale sunt forme complementare de remunerare a forţei de muncă,asociate salariilor negociate. Rezultatele studiului sunt o bază de analiză a tendinţei actualea schemelor cu beneficii definite.Abordarea echilibrului economic general în strânsă legătură cu beneficiile dinSistemul de securitate socială este realizată de Selahattin Imrohoroglu & Nao Sudo (2011),Selahattin Imrohoroglu & Sagiri Kitao (2010), Imrohoroglu, Selahattin & Kitao, Sagiri,(2009), Gary Hansen & Selahattin Imrohoroglu (2008), Kaiji Chen, Ayse Imrohoroglu &Selo Imrohoroglu (2005). Participarea forţei de muncă este privită nu doar ca factor deproducţie, ci şi ca beneficiar al rezultatelor din Sistemul de securitate socială.Ayse Imrohoroglu & Selahattin Imrohoroglu & Douglas H. Joines (1998) aurealizat un program pentru a calcula tipul de model de securitate socială care ar trebuiutilizat în funcţie de variabilele sistemului. Ei au plecat de la premiza că într-un ciclu deviaţă o persoană consumă şi acumulează economii.Impactul pensionărilor anticipate asupra investiţiilor în forţa de muncăRevista Română de Statistică – Supliment Trim IV/2012 295

Montizaan Raymond, Corvers Frank şi Andries de Griep (2008) au efectuat unsondaj pe un eşantion de persoane de genul masculin pentru a evidenţia legătura dintrepensionarea anticipată şi investiţia în capitalul uman.Pensionarea anticipată are un efect negativ asupra investiţiilor, care la rândul lorinfluenţează negativ colectarea contribuţiilor la asigurările sociale. În literatura despecialitate, relaţia dintre pensionarea anticipată şi investiţiile cu formarea profesională afost studiată empiric. Singurii autori care au găsit că există influenţe pozitive sunt Fourageşi Schils (2007).Modelul contribuţiilor progresiveÎn modelul MINT (Model ing.Income in the Near Term) al Administraţiei SUA,autorii Andrew G.Biggs, Mark Sarney şi Christopher R. Tamorini au modificat modelulbazat pe echitate (beneficiile cresc odată cu suma contribuţiilor) pe baza unui indiceprogresiv.Borc (2001) a arătat că toate studiile au avut ca reper Sistemul de securitate socialădin SUA.Modelul scandinavÎn abordarea lui Galenson (1949), în zona ţărilor scandinave s-a constituit unmodel de securitate socială în care naţiunile mici au constituit „un laborator social pentrulumea de Vest”.Modelul scandinav a cunoscut o adevărată exapansiune. Apariţia imigraţiei dupăanii 1970 şi integrarea femeilor în muncă în perioada 1960-1990 au constituit provocăripentru îmbunătăţirea modelului.Einhorn şi John Logue (2006), într-un studiu despre creşterea şi cădereamodelului scandinav, spuneau că în perioada 1930-1980 ţările scandinave, şi în specialSuedia, au fost adesea descrise ca modele pentru dezvoltarea umană bazate pe politicidemocratice pentru alte societăţi. De multe ori, spun ei „modelul scandinav” pare să fie ometaforă şi nu este importantă transferabilitatea lui în SUA, ci chiar în cadrul ţărilor baltice.În perioada 1990-2005 se poate afirma de existenţa unui model neo-scandinav.Retorica de solidaritate, cooperare şi de idealism sună fals ca politică, afirmaEinhorn, care îşi punea întrebarea cum poate defini un model util în altă parte în regiuneaMării Baltice, inclusiv în Germania, Polonia, Rusia, Lituania, Letonia, Estonia.Criteriul rezidenţei este foarte important în cadrul modelului scandinav, dar şifamilia este în centrul modelului, beneficiile şi colectarea contribuţiilor fiind corelate cucriteriile sociale. Familia este privită ca unitate fiscală pentru impozitarea veniturilor.Modelul celor trei piloni Javier OliveraAmerica Latină a preluat modelul Pinera, construit pentru prima dată în Chile înanii 1980.Pe datele furnizate de Peru, Olivera (2009) a propus un model de re-reformă amodelului implementat deja de tip Pinera în anul 1993.El pleacă de la ideea că într-un sistem de pensii bazat pe solidaritate existăposibilitatea ca pensiile să fie mai mari decât în sistemul privat pentru anumite persoane.În plus, implementarea sistemului privat a creat un deficit în sistemul bazat pesolidaritate. Crearea sistemului privat bazat pe conturi individuale cu capitalizare a condusla diminuarea beneficiilor în primul sistem. Întrucât sistemul de pensii private nu oferă opensie minimă, cazurile invocate de autor sunt perfect posibile şi în mod cert se vor întâlnişi în alte ţări.Sistemul de pensii private se adresează persoanelor cu venituri mari, ca şi schemafacultativă, întrucât persoanele cu venituri mici se pot afla în situaţii în care să nu-şi poată296Revista Română de Statistică – Supliment Trim IV/2012

plăti contribuţiile sau se pot confrunta cu riscul de şomaj şi inactivitate mai des decâtpersoanele cu venituri mari, dar care pot să-şi întreţină conturile individuale.Perioada de contribuţie impusă de sistemele private, egală cu cea din sistemulpublic, fiind de 20 de ani în cazul Peru, este posibil ca ea să nu fie realizată având în vederedeclinul economiei mondiale.Propunerea lui Olivera este ca din primul sistem toţi asiguraţii să primească pensiade bază. Al doilea sistem, privat, cu capitalizarea contribuţiilor în acord cu nivelulveniturilor ridică nivelul pensiei, iar scopul celui de-al treilea pilon este de a creşte pensiilecelor care pot să economisească mai mult şi-şi doresc un nivel mai ridicat al pensiei.Olivera şi-a propus să „restabilească” principiul solidarităţii, de altfel criticat demediul de cercetare american. Testarea veniturilor şi stabilirea nivelului taxelor pentruacoperirea pensiilor este o modalitate de acoperire a pensionarilor şi nu o modalitate deacoperire a salariaţilor, ceea ce consolidează inegalitatea (Arza, 2008).Efectele scontate de autor sunt reducerea inegalităţii veniturilor prin stopareatransmiterii inegalităţii de la forţa de muncă spre pensii, creşterea bunăstării prin sistemulconturilor individuale şi reducerea deficitului în sistemul de pensii.În modelul peruan actual al pensiilor, fiecare persoană poate alege unul din celedouă sisteme naţional şi privat. Trecerea din sistemul naţional este permisă oricând, dar nuşi trecerea înapoi către sistemul naţional. La trecerea din sistemul naţional în sistemul privatstatul îi asigură o garanţie prin care îi restituie contribuţiile plătite în sistemul naţional.Valoarea este actualizată pe baza indicelui preţurilor de consum.Remarcăm aspectul de portabilitate completă a drepturilor de pensie din sistemulnaţional către sistemul privat şi lipsa de portabilitate a fluxului invers.Propunerea autorului este că la data reformei, fiecare asigurat va avea aceleaşidrepturi, indiferent de originea sistemului. Numarul de contribuţii aduse oricarui sistempână la reformă se ia în calcul pentru evaluarea unei pensii minime. Contribuţiile ulterioarese fac prin cote diferite către ambele sisteme. Simulând efectele reformei el estimeazăpensiile asiguraţilor cu şi fără reforma Olivera şi rezerva actuarială pentru sistemul cu maimulţi piloni. Pentru a compara rezultatele reformei cu cele ale sistemului curent, ipoteza delucru este alegerea valorilor contribuţiilor către cele două sisteme α si β astfel încât α + β =0.10. Obţinând distribuţii diferite ale pensiilor şi rezervelor actuariale, Olivera urmăreşte cainegalitatea şi bunăstarea să nu mai fie factori de discrepanţă.Rezerva actuarială este capitalul necesar pentru a asigura plata pensiilor curente şiviitoare. Într-un sistem naţional de pensii cu beneficii definite şi într-un sistem cu pilonimultipli, după cum propune autorul, aceste plăţi ar trebui comparate cu valoarea prezentă acontribuţiilor astfel încât să aflam bilanţul final.Efectul reformei asupra datoriei actuariale este estimat, în circumstanţele maimultor combinaţii diferite ale ratelor de contribuţie α si β, unde α+β=10%. În acest caz,datoria actuarială este redusă la doar $441 milioane, astfel că statul economiseşte până la$9,855 milioane, adică echivalentul a 10.5% din PIB. Chiar dacă acesta este un scenariuextrem, este instructiv.Într-un alt scenariu, dacă rata contribuţiei la contul individual este mai mare, statulpoate încă să obţină economii substanţiale. Celălalt caz extrem, sistemul cu piloni multiplis-ar asemana sistemului de pensii privat, având o mica rată a contribuţiei la fondul desolidaritate, chiar şi cu o schemă de pensie minimă garantată. Aceasta alternativă măreşte,oarecum, datoria actuarială cu $245 milioane, în loc să genereze economii. Un planificatorsocial interesat doar de reducerea datoriei actuariale va alege scenariul cu o rata acontribuţiei cât mai mică pentru contul individual. Chiar daca această alegere ar putea ducela o mai mică inegalitate a veniturilor printre pensionari, ar putea implica şi câtevaRevista Română de Statistică – Supliment Trim IV/2012 297

consecinţe adverse în ceea ce priveşte bunăstarea. Până acum, analiza reformei s-aconcentrat pe efectele primilor doi piloni, fiindcă aceştia sunt obligatorii şi fiindcă suntbaza pe care noul sistem de pensie este susţinut.Cel de-al treilea pilon este voluntar, şi este adresat lucrătorilor care vor săeconomisească mai mult, astfel încât să aibă o pensie mai bună. În general, persoanele cusalarii mici s-ar putea să nu fie interesaţi de această schemă, fiindcă trebuie să-şi aloceresursele limitate pe nevoi mai importante. Cel de-al treilea pilon ar trebui creat astfel încâtsă reducă rigidităţile primilor doi piloni (Holzmann, 2005). S-ar putea ca acestă masură săatragă persoane care sunt deja îinscrise în sistemul de pensie, şi chiar şi pe cei care nu suntîncă asigurate, dar care-şi doresc să participe într-un al treilea pilon, dacă remuneraţiile suntadecvate din punctul lor de vedere.Solidaritatea este o caracteristică valoroasă în cadrul protecţiei sociale în general,dar mai ales într-un sistem de pensie. Recuperarea acestui principiu ne permite să folosimsistemul de pensie ca un instrument în plus pentru redistribuirea veniturilor, chiar dacătrebuie notat că această utilizare provine din abordarea siguranţei sociale ca parte apoliticilor redistributive. Acest aspect se află în concordanţă cu viziunea siguranţei socialeca asigurare socială eficientă. Trebuie menţionat că sistemul cu piloni multipli diversificămai bine riscurile. Factorii care afectează variabilele de muncă şi deci primul pilon nu suntperfect corelaţi cu factorii care afectează variabilele financiare, care, în schimb, determinăperformanţa fondurilor de pensii în cel de-al doilea pilon (Holzmann, 2005; Lindbeck şiPersson, 2003).Propunerea are trei efecte importante. În primul rând, inegalitatea pensiilor se reducenotabil, ceea ce „distruge” transmiterea acestui aspect de la carieră la perioada depensionare. În al doilea rând, reforma îmbunătăţeşte bunăstarea, chiar dacă depinde devaloarea ratei contribuţiei aleasă pentru contul individual. În al treilea rând, este redusăsemnificativ datoria actuarială. Aspectul cheie al rezultatelor Olivera este că reformapropusă arată îmbunătăţiri în toate aceste trei probleme. De vreme ce pensiile minime suntfinanţate prin contribuţii ale asiguratului, şi nu de la Trezorerie, statul ar aloca acesteresurse eliberate altor programe sociale, care îmbunătăţesc modul de cheltuire al resurselorpublice. În plus, implementarea unei scheme generale minime şi deschiderea sa către toţiasiguraţii le asigură tuturor aceleaşi drepturi, fie că aceştia provin din sistemul privat saudin sistemul naţional de pensii. Cel de-al treilea pilon propus ar putea atrage asiguraţii cuvenituri mari care nu sunt obligaţi să se înscrie într-un sistem de pensie, din cauzarigidităţilor primilor doi piloni. Crearea unui al treilea pilon este un alt mod de a îmbunătăţiconcurenţa între fondurile private. Tocmai din aceste motive, propunerea de reformă arputea fi o bună ocazie de eliminat taxele adminsitrative.Bibliografie selectivă[1]. Anghelache, C., (2008) - „Tratat de statistică teoretică şi economică”, EdituraEconomică, Bucureşti.[2]. Anghelache, C., Lilea, F.P.C., (2012) - „Econometrie”, Editura Artifex, Bucureşti.[3]. Bjorklund, A. ,(1993) - „A Comparison between Actual Distributions of Annual andLifetime Income: Sweden 1951-92,” Review of Income and Wealth, 39, pp. 377-386.[4]. Folster, S.,Trofimov, G. (1999) - „Social Insurance based on Personal SavingsAccount: A Theoretical Analysis”, Working Paper, The Swedish Research Institute ofTrade, Stockholm.[5]. Greenwald, B, J. E. Stiglitz (1986) - „Externalities in Economies with ImperfectInformation and Incomplete Markets,” Quarterly Journal of Economics, May 1986, pp.229-264.298Revista Română de Statistică – Supliment Trim IV/2012

[6]. Lindbeck, A., Persson, M.,(2003) – „The Gains from Pension Reform”, Journal ofEconomic Literature, vol.41, pp. 74-112.[7]. Orzag, M.J., Orzag, P.R., Snower, D.J., Stiglitz, J.E. (1999) - „The Impact ofIndividual Accounts: Piecemal vs. Comprehensive Approaches”, Presented At theAnnual Bank Conference on Development Economics, The World Bank, OECD(1996), Employment Outlook, OECD, Paris.[8]. Siegmann, A. (2010)- „Minimum funding ratios for defined-benefit pension funds”,Journal of Pension Economics and Finance, Available on CJOdoi:10.1017/S1474747210000296.Revista Română de Statistică – Supliment Trim IV/2012 299

Some Aspects regarding the Global and EuropeanStatistical SystemProfessor Ion PÂRŢACHI PhDipartachi@ase.mdAcademy of Economic Studies of Moldavia – ChișinăuOleg CARA PhD Studentoleg.cara@yahoo.comNational Institute for Statistics of MoldaviaAndreea BALTAC PhD Studentandreea.madan@yahoo.com“Artifex” University of BucharestAbstractThe systemic development of statistics, of a coherent framework of conceptalinstruments, harmonized definitions and standards, having as object the internationalcomparability, has determined the statiscical collaboration and cooperation, at aninternational level and the creation of the Global Statistical System (GSS). GSS isconcretized, in fact, on a system of standards and classifications, set of principles, criteriaand norms which govern international statistical activities including ones making theobject of working reunions organized with a certain periodicality by the internationalstatistical organizations.Key words: global statistical system, statistical principles, practice code, aquiscommunityJEL Classification: C10, C181. Sistemul Statistic GlobalDennis Trewin, preşedintele Biroului de Statistică al Australiei, descrie sistemulstatistic global (SSG) ca reprezentând ,,diverse organizaţii internaţionale/furnizori destatistici atât la nivel global, cât şi la nivel regional”, incluzând aici şi ,,mecanismele variatepentru punerea în legătură a acestor organizaţii”.Sistemul statistic global (sau sistemul ONU al statisticii) include: oficiilenaţionale de statistică (ONS); oficiile de statistică ale ONU; ale comisiilor regionale ONU,ale agenţiilor specializate ONU; departamentele de statistică ale organizaţiilor regionale(precum OECD, Eurostat al UE ); grupe informale ("city groups' r ); Institutul Internaţionalde Statistică, instituţiile de cercetări, etc.Sistemul global funcţionează datorită relaţiilor, interacţiunilor şi conexiunilordintre factorii săi decizionali, în baza unei terminologii comune, a metodologiilor şiinstrumentelor dezvoltate pentru a permite schimbul de informaţii statistice. Un rol deosebitîn dezvoltarea sistemului statistic global revine Sistemului Statistic European (SSE), careasigură activitatea statisticii oficiale în UE şi în Spaţiul Economic European.Hermann Habermann (Biroul de Recensăminte/ SUA) confirmă existenţa unuisistem statistic global, componentele principale ale sistemului sau reţelei reprezentândbirourile naţionale de statistică. “Agenţiile internaţionale de statistică joacă, sau ar trebui săjoace un rol complementar asociat”.300Revista Română de Statistică – Supliment Trim IV/2012

Statisticile oficiale constituie o cauză şi urmare a convergenţei. Pentru asigurareadezvoltării statisticii, şi ca reprezentanţii ţărilor lumii să „vorbească în aceeaşi limbă acifrelor”- pentru comparabilitatea în spaţiu a datelor este imperioasă cooperareainternaţională. Colaborarea internaţională permite elaborarea soluţiilor problemelorstatistice, a standardelor statistice comune. Convergenţa metodelor, instrumentelorstatistice ca bază pentru obţinerea datelor coerente la nivel regional şi internaţional aducetotodată eficienţă în sisteme de producţie. Schimbul de experienţă, cooperarea în elaborareasoluţiilor metodologice şi practice pentru producerea şi difuzarea statisticilor de calitatepermit reducerea costurilor de creare şi dezvoltare a sistemelor de producţie şi diseminare.Omogenizarea metodelor, instrumentelor şi, ca efect - a datelor statistice estescopul şi consecinţa convergenţei statisticilor oficiale la nivel regional şi internaţional.Prima conferinţă internaţională de statistică, care a pus începutul unei colaborăristrânse a statisticienilor din domeniul academic, cât şi aplicat la nivel internaţional,promovând dezvoltarea şi extinderea metodelor statistice avansate, a avut loc în septembrie1853 la Bruxelles. Acesta a fost primul congres internaţional de statistică, cu obiectivul de adefini o bază comună pentru datele statistice, făcând astfel posibile comparaţiileinternaţionale. Ideea a aparţinut preşedintelui Comisiei Centrale de Statistică -LambertAdolphe Quetelet, care s-a oferit să reunească la un congres, toate persoanele din diferiteţări, care se ocupă cu activitatea statistică - pentru a da prestaţiei lor un impuls comun şipentru a adopta pentru calcule, fundamente uniforme care să permită compararearezultatelor şi observaţiilor statistice.Comunitatea statistică internaţională pledează pentru necesitatea calităţiistatisticilor şi pentru nevoia de a îmbunătăţi capacitatea sistemelor naţionale şiinternaţionale de a furniza indicatori pertinenţi, în care utilizatorii să aibă încredere, şi lamomentul oportun 1 .Comisia de Statistică ONU este recunoscută a fi entitatea supremă a sistemuluistatistic global, ce funcţionează din 1947.2. Sistemul Statistic EuropeanSistemul Statistic European (SSE) constituie un parteneriat între Eurostat şiinstituţiile naţionale de statistică, precum şi alte autorităţi naţionale din fiecare din Statelemembre ale UE ca si din Islanda, Norvegia si Lichtenstein (state membre, împreuna cu celeale Uniunii Europene, ale Spaţiului Economic European), responsabile pentru dezvoltarea,producerea şi diseminarea statisticilor europene.Eurostatului- autorităţii în domeniul statisticii la nivelul Comunităţii îi revine unrol cheie în funcţionarea şi dezvoltarea SSE. Legislaţia UE asigura autonomia Eurostat,bazată pe principiul imparţialităţii, independentei ştiinţifice si confidenţialităţii, cereprezintă de fapt, fundamentul oricărei statistici într-o societate democrată.Eurostatul contribuie de asemenea la colectarea datelor armonizate pentrunegocierile cu ţările candidate. De asemenea, ajută statele candidate sa-si îmbunătăţeascăsistemele de statistică pentru a fi în conformitate cu cerinţele UE si de a le integra înSistemul European de Statistică.Un rol important în dezvoltarea coordonată a Sistemului Statistic Europeanrevine: Comitetul Sistemului statistic european;1 Anghelache, C. (2009) – „Indicatori macroeconomici utilizaţi în comparabilitatea internaţională”,Conferinţa a 57-a „Statistica – trecut, prezent şi viitor”, ISBN 978-90-73592-29-2, Durban, articolcotat ISIRevista Română de Statistică – Supliment Trim IV/2012 301

Grupului de parteneriat;Directorii Generali ai Instituţiilor Naţionale de Statistică;Bordul Consultativ European de Guvernare Statistică;Comitetul Consultativ European de Guvernare Statistică.3. Acquis-ul comunitar privind statisticaLegislaţia Uniunii Europene sau, potrivit unei denumiri mai puţin oficiale,"acquis-ul Uniunii Europene" în domeniul statisticii este constituit aproape în exclusivitatedin legislaţia cu aplicabilitate directă în statele membre, adoptată de către ParlamentulEuropean şi Consiliul, precum şi Comisie. Acesta include de asemenea manuale şi ghidurimetodologice, elaborate sub egida Eurostatului. Acordurile internaţionale în domeniu curelevanţă pentru statele UE de asemenea servesc baza dezvoltării statisticii europene.Numărul total al actelor UE cu referinţă la domeniul statisticii este de peste 330,fiind în permanentă schimbare. Întrucât cadrul legal evoluează în permanenţă, aquis-ulcomunitar este o “ ţintă în mişcare“, astfel, implementarea standardelor europene îndomeniul statisticii constituie un exerciţiu permanent în activitatea fiecărui oficiu naţionalde statistic.În 1997 au fost adoptate acte normative majore care au pus statisticile Comunităţiipe o baza legala solidă si care să poată face faţă provocărilor intervenite odată cu extindereamasivă a UE. Prin Tratatul de la Amsterdam a fost inserat în Tratatul instituindComunităţile Europene Articolul 285, care reprezintă baza „constituţională” a realizăriistatisticilor Comunităţii si apropierii acţiunilor statelor membre în acest domeniul, careprevede că:„(...) Consiliul (...) va adopta măsuri de producere a statisticilor în cazurile în careaceasta este necesar pentru îndeplinire a activităţilor Comunitarii.Producerea Statisticilor Comunităţii se va baza pe imparţialitate, credibilitate,obiectivitate, independenţa ştiinţifică, rentabilitate si confidenţialitate; ea nu va impunesarcini excesive operatorilor economici”.În acelaşi an a fost adoptată Legea comunitară a statisticii oficiale - Regulamentulnr. 322/97 al Consiliului privind statisticile comunitare, care a constituit cadrul legislativde baza pentru funcţionarea statisticii Comunitarilor Europene până în anul 2009. Înprezent Legea comunitară a statisticii oficiale este reprezentată prin Regulamentul (CE) nr.223/2009 privind statisticile europene, adoptat de către Parlamentul European şi Consiliu,act normativ cu relevanţă pentru SEE şi Elveţia.Legea comunitară a statisticii oficiale face o departajare a responsabilităţilor întreautorităţile naţionale si cele ale UE implicate în statistica, definind totodată si condiţiile debaza, procedurile si prevederile generale ce guvernează statisticile oficiale la niveleuropean.Conform Regulamentului (CE) nr. 223/2009 dezvoltarea, elaborarea şi difuzareastatisticilor europene sunt guvernate de următoarele principii statistice:(a) "independenţă profesională";(b) "imparţialitate";(c) "obiectivitate";(d) "fiabilitate";(e) "confidenţialitatea informaţiilor statistice";(f) "eficienţa costurilor" .În conformitate cu prevederile articolului 11 al Regulamentului (CE) nr. 223/2009al Parlamentului European şi al Consiliului. Principiile statistice nominalizate au fost302Revista Română de Statistică – Supliment Trim IV/2012

dezvoltate în Codul de bune practici ale statisticilor europene, adoptat într-o nouă redacţiede către Comitetul Sistemului Statistic European prin decizia din 28 septembrie 2011.Asigurând acoperirea cadrului instituţional, a proceselor statistice şi a producţieistatistice în cadrul SSE, Codul de practici reprezintă o abordare ambiţioasă a calităţii înstatistică şi are un dublu scop, şi anume: creşterea încrederii în independenţa, integritatea şi responsabilitateaautorităţilor statistice, precum şi în credibilitatea şi calitatea statisticilor pe care le produc şile diseminează (perspectiva externă); promovarea aplicării celor mai bune principii, metode şi practici statisticeinternaţionale de către toţi producătorii de statistici europene pentru a spori calitateaacestora (perspectiva internă) .Odată cu adoptarea Codului de practici, statele-membre ale UE şi-au luatangajamentul de a adera la principiile acestuia. Un set de 82 indicatori de Bune Practicipentru cele 15 principii asigură un standard pentru evaluarea implementării CP. Codulurmează principiul general al managementul calităţii totale (TQM) al unei abordări largi acalităţii, acoperind mediul instituţional, procedurile statistice şi produsele statistice [50].Pentru a compara rezultatele si problemele implementării Codului de practici in statele SSEau fost utilizate auto-evaluări pe baza unui chestionar comun, precum si rezultatele in urmaevaluărilor peer-review .Codul de practici este revizuit şi actualizat, în măsura în care acest lucru estenecesar, de către Comitetul SSE.Bibliografie selectivă[1]. Anghelache C. Tratat de statistică teoretică şi economică. Bucureşti: EdituraEconomică, 2008.[2]. Brüngger H. Ce implică Principiile fundamentale cu privire la statistica oficială aleONU pentru organizarea sistemelor statistice naţionale? Conferinţa Armonizareastatisticii oficiale a Republicii Moldova cu standardele Uniunii Europene, Chişinău, 3 –4 mai 2007: http://www.statistica.md/libview.php?l=ro&idc=223&id=2121.[3]. Trewin D. The Evolution of National Statistical Systems —Trends and ImplicationsSeminar on the Evolution of National Statistical Systems.New York, 23 February2007:http://unstats.un.org/unsd/statcom/statcom_seminar/Country_papers_evolution.htm.[4]. Voineagu V., Dumitrescu I.,Ştefănescu D.E. Sistemul Statistic Global în ofensivă. În:Revista[5]. Română de Statistică, 2009 nr 8, p. 4-19 , p.3-15.[6]. Voineagu V., Katalin Szep şi alţii. Codul de Practici ale Statisticilor Europene -Comparaţii privind implementarea în Institutul Naţional de Statistică din România şi înoficiul Central de Statistică din Ungaria. Revista Româna de Statistică, 2009, nr. 10, p.20-37.[7]. 4. Regulation (EC) No 223/2009 of the European Parliament and of the Council –European statistics - New legal framework OJ L 87, 31.3.2009, p. 164.Revista Română de Statistică – Supliment Trim IV/2012 303

Pension Calculation Models in European SocialSecurity SystemsSenior Lecturer Virginia CUCU PhDvirginia_cucu@yahoo.comLecturer Florin Paul Costel LILEA PhDflorin.lilea@gmail.com“Artifex” University of BucharestAna (CARP) ANTON PhDkarp_ana@yahoo.comCătălina Claudia SAVA PhD StudentLucian Blaga University, SibiuAbstractAn often discussed theme is the pensions’ calculation formula. Even if there is nomagical formula, the problem to choose the social insurance model through a softwaredepending a series of system parameters.The analysis we make in this article is based on the study of applicable law inEuropean countries and the synthese elaborated by MISSOC (The EU's Mutual InformationSystem on Social Protection). This incursion into the social insurance systems of the mainstates of the European Union is at the base of realizing the scope of introspection of themodality to establish the formula of benefits, to elaborate a calculation formula in the saesin which studied sources ave not designed an explicit formula, to emphasize the factors thatdetermine the level of benefits and the criteria to redistribute benefits.Key words: social security, state pensions, benefits, supplementary pension,insurantsJEL Classification: H55Vom începe prin a prezenta, pentru principalelor state din Uniunea Europeană,modul de stabilire a beneficiilor conform legislațiilor naționale.Austria. Pentru persoanele care aveau vârsta de 50 de ani la 1 ianuarie 2005 a continuat săse aplice vechea legislaţie, în care beneficiile se stabilesc după formula:P_old = 1,78% x Y x Bcunde Y = numărul anilor de asigurare, Bc = baza de calcul a pensiei.De la 1 ianuarie 2005 s-a schimbat sistemul legislativ în ceea ce priveşteasigurările sociale în favoarea noilor pensionari. Pensiile vechi au rămas mai mici cu 5% înanul 2005, iar decalajul faţă de noile cuantumuri se va adânci gradual cu până la 10% înanul 2024.Pensia se plăteşte de 14 ori într-un an.Începând cu anul 2005 s-a introdus sistemul conturilor individuale. Anual secreditează contul individual cu 1,78% din baza de calcul evidenţiată în declaraţia anuală.Întrucât asiguraţii au realizat perioade de cotizare şi înainte de 1 ianuarie 2005 se aplicămetoda pro-rata temporis pentru a calcula pensii parţiale din cele două subperioade deasigurare.304Revista Română de Statistică – Supliment Trim IV/2012

Baza de calcul este aleasă din 20 de ani de asigurare pentru care se calculeazămedia veniturilor. Această perioadă va creşte la 40 de ani (cei mai buni) până în anul 2028.Baza de calcul este reevaluată pe baza indicelui preţurilor de consum.Venitul bază de calcul este limitat la 4.110 €. Datorită diferenţelor de reevaluarepentru anii trecuţi baza maximă este de 3,533.09 €.Belgia. Schema obligatorie este finanţată numai din contribuţiile plătite de populaţia activăformată din salariaţi şi persoane autoasigurate. Modificările legislative importante s-auprodus în anul 1996.În formula de calcul, cuantumul pensiei este direct proporţional cu salariul dereferinţă şi ia în considerare o componentă socială.Factorul social care intră în formula de calcul a beneficiilor este criteriul depersoană singură sau căsătorită şi dependenţa soţului. Notând cuantumul pensiei pentrulimită de vârstă cu P_old, distingem două tipuri de formule.P_old = S x 60% x 1/45P_old = S x 75% x 1/45Salariul de referinţă (S) este diferenţiat pe trei perioade: înainte de 1 ianuarie 1955, S este osumă fixă de 12,892.42 €; în intervalul 1955-1980, S este suma câştigurilor până la un nivellimită; începând după anul 1980, suma câştigurilor fiind limitată. De exemplu, la nivelulanului 2009 aceasta era de 47,171.84 € .Formula de calcul a pensiilor conţine influenţa factorului câştiguri salariale, caredepinde de durata contribuţiilor, de rata de dependenţă şi de situaţia familială.Sursele de finanţare sunt constituite din contribuţia globală, subvenţii de stat,alternative de finanţare (VAT), care variază în funcţie de necesităţi. Contribuţiile la nivelulanului 2009 erau de 37,84%, repartizate pe angajatori (24,77%) şi angajaţi (13,07%).În cazul salariilor mici contribuţia angajatorului este redusă la 7,48% pentru aîncuraja angajarea forţei de muncă.Facilităţi fiscale sunt oferite firmelor mici cu mai puţin de 10 salariaţi. Acestefirme plătesc o cotă a contribuţiei de 1,69%.Bulgaria. Sistemul de pensii de bază din Bulgaria este de tip redistributiv finanţat dinveniturile curente pentru persoanele născute înainte de 1 ianuarie 1960.Pentru persoanele născute începând cu această dată există un sistem de pensionarecombinat din Pilonul I şi Pilonul II.Pilonul II este complet finanţat din contribuţii individuale.Pentru o serie de categorii profesionale se alocă contribuţiile între 0,4% - 1,1%din veniturile brute ale funcţionarilor publici, personalului militar, personalului din sistemuljudiciar.Alte alocări din bugetul de stat constau în contribuţii între 30%-50% pentrupersoanele cu handicap şi pentru angajatorii care folosesc această forţă de muncă.Contribuţiile se colectează de la angajatori şi de la angajaţi, iar în cazul deficituluisistemului public se transferă sume de la bugetul de stat.În Pilonul I, de bază, formula beneficiilor cuprinde următorii factori: numărulanilor de asigurare (Yi); numărul anilor de asigurare realizaţi peste perioada standard deasigurare (Yi- 37) sau (Yi-35), unde 37 şi 35 sunt sumărul anilor de asigurare necesaripentru bărbaţi şi respectiv pentru femei (pentru acest factor se acordă un bonus de 3%aplicat asupra bazei de calcul pentru fiecare an suplimentar şi o sumă suplimentară pentrufiecare lună suplimentară lucrată, cu condiţia ca asiguratul să continue activitatea şi să nusolicite înscrierea la pensie); încadrarea în grupe de muncă: g1, g2, g3, unde gi este grupade muncă care determină o reducere a vârstei standard de pensionare în cazul persoanelorRevista Română de Statistică – Supliment Trim IV/2012 305

care au defăşurat activitate în grupe mai bine apreciate din punct de vedere al condiţiilor demuncă.Formula de calcul se transpune matematic astfel:P_old = B x 1,1% x YiP_old = B x 1,1% x Yi x 3% + Psunde Ps = S x (Yi- 37)/37 în cazul bărbaţilor sau Ps = S x (Yi – 35)/35 în cazul femeilor; Yi G1, G2, G3; G1, G2, G3 reprezintă mulţimea vârstelor pe grupe de muncă.Condiţia în cazul formulei (2.6) este ca Yi să fie cel puţin egal cu 37 ani (sau 35 ani în cazulfemeilor). Notaţiile B semnifică baza de calcul, Ps semnifică suma suplimentară acordatăca bonus individual, S semnifică suma suplimentară stabilită prin formula generală abeneficiilor. Formulele sunt elaborate de autoare după legislaţia aplicabilă în Bulgaria.Pilonul II este un sistem de conturi individuale administrat privat. Cuantumulpensiei pentru limită de vârstă se stabileşte în funcţie de trei parametri: resursele acumulateîn contul individual, tabelele biometrice şi ratele tehnice ale dobânzii.În cazul pensionării anticipate formula de calcul inserează un al patrulea parametrucare este perioada de primire a sumelor acumulate în contul individual.Danemarca. În Damemarca unul dintre criteriile de stabilire a formulei de calcul a pensieieste criteriul rezidenţei.Pensia socială = Suma anuală x 1/40 x ni,unde ni este numărul anilor de rezidenţă între vârsta de 15 ani şi 65 ani. Maximumcoeficientului de rezidenţă este 40/40.Formula de calcul a pensiei sociale este:P_old = P_socială + Sumă suplimentarăSuma anuală este de 65376 DKK (€ 8,777). Pentru persoanele singure se acordă unsupliment la pensia socială stabilit pe baza coeficientului 1/40 aplicat asupra bazei decalcul. Baza de calcul este diferită în funcţie de acest criteriu social şi familial.La Schema de pensii suplimentară, danezii s-au putut afilia începând cu 1 aprilie1964. Această schemă le oferă pensia suplimentară integrală dacă pe durata de asigurare auavut un job cu normă întreagă. În caz contrar, asiguraţilor li se oferă o sumă forfetară.La schema de pensii suplimentare există 6 nivele de contribuţii în funcţie de tipulactivităţii prestate.Franţa. În schema generală de pensii a salariaţilor (RGAVTS), formula de calcul a pensieieste:P_old = Sb x t x n/162unde : Sb = salariul de referinţă; t = rata pensiei ; n = perioada de asigurare.Rata pensiei este în funcţie de perioada de asigurare: max (t) = 50% pentru 160trimestre de asigurare pentru persoanele născute înainte de anul 1949 şi max (t) = 50%pentru 162 de trimestre de asigurare pentru persoanele născute între 1950 şi 1952.Pentru perioade mai mici rata pensiei scade cu 5%/an pentru persoanele născuteînainte de 1944 şi cu 2,5% pentru persoanele născute după anul 1952. Maximum ratei seaplică pentru salariaţii cu 50% incapacitate de muncă, pentru femeile care au 3 copii şipentru veterani şi victime de război, dacă au 65 de ani la vârsta pensionării. Perioada deasigurare necesară este funcţie de anul naşterii: 150 trimestre pentru persoanele născuteînainte de 1944, 160 de trimestre pentru persoanele născute după 1947 şi pentru celelaltepersoane corespunde perioadei de asigurare standard necesară.Pentru salariaţi există o schemă complementară (ARRCO), iar pentru staful deconducere există o schemă AGIRC, care furnizează pensii complementare calculate pe bazaunui număr total de puncte multiplicat cu valoarea punctului de pensie.306Revista Română de Statistică – Supliment Trim IV/2012

Germania. Pensia pentru limită de vârstă se stabileşte în Germania pe baza următoareiformule:P_old = PEP x RA (1,0) x ARunde: PEP este numărul de puncte al câştigurilor individuale;Suma numărului de puncte al câştigurilor individuale se calculează pe bazaraportului dintre câştigurile anuale şi media naţională a câştigurilor din fiecare an. Pentruperioadele necontributive considerate credite se utilizează un factor de multiplicare numitfactor de acces. Factorul de acces depinde de vârsta asiguratului şi are o valoare mai maredacă vârsta de pensionare este amânată.RA este un factor care ia valori în funcţie de tipul pensiei. În cazul pensiei pentrulimită de vârstă cu vechime completă, factorul RA are valoarea 1.AR este valoarea curentă a pensiei şi corespunde pensiei lunare plătite unuisalariat cu câştiguri medii salariale pentru fiecare an de contribuţie. Această valoare medielunară este ajustată anual în funcţie de evoluţia creşterii salariilor. În landurile vechifactorul AR are valoarea 27,20 €, iar în landurile noi are valoarea 24,13 €.Sursele de finanţare se constituie din contribuţiile plătite pe tot parcursul vieţii desalariat, contribuţii voluntare (perioade de contribuţie) şi a perioadelor de creştere acopilului (perioade pentru care se acordă credite la numărul de puncte).În anul 2009 s-au acordat facilităţi persoanelor cu venituri mici.Vârsta standard de pensionare este de 67 ani (65 ani la femei) şi poate fi redusădupă criterii sociale: persoane cu handicap, anul naşterii şi distribuirea perioadei de cotizareîn ultimii ani.Persoanele cu venituri mici de până la 400 €/lună sau care sunt salariate pe odurată scurtă de timp într-un an sunt scutite de la plata contribuţiilor. Sistemul de pensii dinGermania permite contribuţii voluntare de la toate persoanele cu vârsta mai mare de 16 ani.În ceea ce priveşte fiscalizarea veniturilor din pensii menţionăm faptul că este prevăzută ocreştere graduală până în anul 2039 a impozitării veniturilor din pensii peste un anumitplafon şi funcţie de criterii sociale.Grecia. Pentru persoanele născute înainte de 1.01.1993, pensia de bază este procent dinsalariul de bază (de referinţă) şi poate varia între 70% şi 30% în relaţie inversă cucâştigurile.Pentru persoanele asigurate după această dată, procentul aplicat este 2% pentrufiecare an asigurat. Formula de calcul a beneficiilor este relativ simplă şi este diferenţiatăpentru persoanele născute înainte de anul 1993 faţă de cea pentru persoanele născute dupăaceastă dată.P_old = Fy x Sb x 1/Fcunde Sb este un salariu luat ca bază de referinţă, Fc este un factor al câştigurilor.Procentul este în relaţie inversă cu nivelul câştigurilor, Fy = 30%(- 70%).Pentru persoanele asigurate din 1/1/1993, nivelul pensiei variază în funcţie denumărul de ani asigurate. Pentru un an de asigurare se ia în calcul 2% din venitul depensionare.P_old = 2% x Ny x SbSursele de finanţare sunt constituite din rata totală generală pentru securitatesocială, care este de 33%. Rata se distribuie în procent de 20% pentru pensii şi 13% pentrusănătate. Contribuţiile se colectează numai de la angajatori şi de la persoaneleautoasigurate.Contribuţiile se colectează de la angajaţi şi de la angajatori pentru persoaneleasigurate înainte de 1.01.1993. Pentru persoanele asigurate în sistem după această datăstatul contribuie cu 1% din PIB în perioda 2003-2032.Revista Română de Statistică – Supliment Trim IV/2012 307

Instituţiile de asigurări sociale primesc anual subvenţii de la stat. În cazulasiguraţilor de peste 65 de ani, pentru fiecare an suplimentar pensia se majorează cu 2%dacă au minim 15 ani de contribuţii, iar în cazul asiguraţilor cu peste 40 de ani decontribuţii, creşterea pensiei este cu 3% pentru fiecare an suplimentar. Pensia se plăteşte de14 ori pe an.Contribuţiile pentru protecţia socială, cu excepţia contribuţiei pentru şomaj,totalizează 28,3% din câştigurile salariale şi sunt suportate în cea mai mare parte deangajatori, 23,6% şi în mică măsură de angajaţi, 4,7%. Baza contribuţiilor este plafonată la3.198 €/lună. Pentru angajaţi există o schemă generală de pensii care cuprinde o formulăde calcul diferenţiată în funcţie de anul naşterii persoanei asigurate.Italia. În Italia formula de calcul este în funcţie de anul de asigurare (înainte de 1.01.1996 şidupă), numărul anilor de asigurare şi plafonul veniturilor.Pentru persoanele asigurate înainte 1/1/1996CÂŞTIGURI( E=PLAFON) €NUMĂRUL ANILOR DEASIGURARE(N) 42,364 n 2% 56,344.12 n 1,6% 70,324.24 n 1,35% 80,491.60 n 1,1% 80,491.60 n 0,9%P_old = Fp x n x EPentru persoanele asigurate din 1/1/1996P_old = 33% x Fc x n x AcPROCENT (FP)unde Fc = contribuţie convenţională; n = numărul de ani; Ac = coeficient actuarial înfuncţie de vârsta asiguratului (minimă de 60 de ani , maximă de 65 de ani).Contribuţia convenţională este ajustată anual în functie de creşterea medie anuală aGDP, calculată pentru ultimii 5 ani.Marea Britanie. În Marea Britanie pensia se compune dintr-o pensie de bază şi o pensiesuplimentară.Pensia de stat de bază este o sumă forfetară de GBP 97.65 (€ 119) pe săptămânăîn funcţie de numărul anilor de calificareSchema de pensii legată de câştiguri stabileşte un cuantum al pensiei în funcţie derata de angajamente de 1,25%/an, excedentul mediei câştigurilor indexate faţă de limitainferioară şi superioară a câştigurilor pentru perioadele 1978-5 aprilie 2002. Aceastăschemă oferă o pensie adiţională de 157.47 RON (€ 192) pe săptămână.Pentru contribuţiile plătite în intervalul 1961 şi 1975 suma adăugată la pensii estecalculată în raport de suma forfetară de bază: GBP 0.1153 (€ 0.14) pe săptămână pentrufiecare GBP 7,50 (€ 9.12) (bărbaţi) sau GBP 9 (€ 11) (femei).Tranziţia sistemului de pensie a avut loc în perioada aprilie 2002-martie 2010,perioadă în care rata de acumulare s-a redus până la 1%. Începând din aprilie 2002 şi pânăîn martie 2010, rata de acumulare este: 2%, 1%, 0,5% în funcţie de limitele inferioare şisuperioare ale câştigurilor şi diferenţa câştigurilor suplimentare realizate.308Revista Română de Statistică – Supliment Trim IV/2012

Cele patru tipuri de beneficii maxime pe care le poate obţine cu titlu de pensii opersoană sunt: pensia de bază (100%) de GBP 97.65 (€119); pensia adiţională GBP 157.47(€192); beneficii de pensionare GBP 9.54 (€12) în cazul bărbaţilor şi GBP 7.99 (€9.71) încazul femeilor. Plata pensiei este săptămânală.Norvegia. În Norvegia pensia se stabileşte din trei componente: o pensie completă de bază,un supliment la pensie şi o pensie suplimentară .O pensie de bază completă este egală cu o pensie minimă de bază. Acest nivel(BA) este de NOK 75,641 (€9,402) sau este de 85% din acest plafon dacă persoana estecăsătorită sau împarte aceeaşi gospodărie cu o persoană cu un venit anual mai mare decâtaceastă sumă.Punctele anuale de pensie se determină cu ajutorul formulei:PA = AE – BA,unde AE = câştigurile salariale anuale de la locul de muncă; BA = Cuantumul de bază.Numărul de punctele anuale maxime este 7, dacă veniturile sunt între 6 şi 12cuantumuri de bază. Pentru venituri mai mici se acordă un punct, adică un BA.În funcţie de un criteriu de rezidenţă se reduce pensia minimă completă formatădin pensia de bază şi suplimentul la pensie dacă numărul anilor de rezidenţă este mai micde 40 de ani.Formula pensiei suplimentare este :P_suplimentară = BA x 0.42 x FPA,unde FPA = puncte medii anuale de pensie, factorul de 0.42 este rata de compensare carese aplică pentru anii realizaţi ca stagiu de la 1992; pentru anii anteriori anului 1992, rata decompensare este de 0,45.Olanda. Pensiile în Olanda se stabilesc pe baza a două criterii: sociale şi contributive.Stagiul standard de cotizare este de 50 de ani. Pentru o perioadă de 50 de ani de asigurare seplăteşte o pensie completă. Pentru fiecare an de cotizare mai puţin se aplică o deducere de2%. Pensia de bază este stabilită pe criterii sociale:CRITERIUL SOCIAL ŞIFAMILIALPersoană singură 1,022.85Mamă singură cu un copilmai mic de 18 aniPersoane căsătorite şinecăsătorite din aceeaşigospodărie cu vârsta de celpuţin 65 de aniPensionari cu partener maitânăr de 65 de ani, pensieînainte de 1 februarie 1994Pensionari cu partener maitânăr de 65 de ani, pensiedupă de 1 februarie 1994PENSIA DE BAZĂ (€)/PERSOANĂ1,295.62701.491,022.85701.49Formula de calcul este:P_old = Pb + Pc;unde Pb este pensia de bază (socială) şi Pc este pensia contributivă.Revista Română de Statistică – Supliment Trim IV/2012 309

Polonia. Pentru persoanele născute înainte de 1/1/1949, pensia pentru limită de vârstă secalculează dupa formula:E = kb x (wpw x os x 1.3% + wpw x on x 0.7% + 24%)unde:- kb este baza de calcul şi este egală cu salariul mediu net pe ţară (fără contribuţiile laasigurările sociale) din anul precedent;- wpw este coeficientul salarial individual, calculat ca medie a salariului individual dereferinţă la salariul mediu pe ţară din aceeaşi perioadă- os este perioada de asigurare în care s-au achitat contribuţii- on este perioada pentru care nu s-au plătit contribuţii (perioade necontributive)Pentru persoanele născute începând cu 1/1/1949 s-a introdus sistemul conturilorindividuale.Cuantumul pensiei pentru limită de vârstă se calculează prin raportarea activelortotale de pensie acumulate în contul individual la speranţa medie de viaţă rămasă de lavârsta de ieşire la pensie.P_old = An / (Le – V)unde: An este activul net individual acumulat; Le = speranţa medie de viaţă; V = Vârsta ladata pensionării.Portugalia. Cele patru criterii care stau la baza stabilirii pensiei pentru limită de vârstă sunt:numărul anilor de asigurare, media lunară a câştigurilor pe întreaga perioada de asigurare,factorul de stabilitate financiară (stabilit pe baza evoluţiei speranţei de viaţă medii) şifactorul de durabilitate financiară (calculat ca raport între speranţa medie de viaţă în anul2006 şi cea din anul precedent cererii de pensionare).Pentru persoanele asigurate înainte de 1.01.2002 care se pensionează înainte deanul 2017, pensia pentru limită de vârstăse calculează pe baza mediei anuale a câştigurilorcare se calculează în mod propoţional pe cele două subperioade cu legislaţii diferite. Pentrupersoanele asigurate începând cu 1/1/2002, formula de calcul pentru un număr de 20 de anide contribuţii este :P_old = 2% x N x REunde N este numărul anilor de contribuţii, RE este salariul de referinţă.Pentru mai mult de 20 de ani de contribuţii procentul aplicat variază între 2% şi2,3%. Valoarea acordată ca sprijin social este de 419,22 €, funcţie de care se calculeazăindexările pensiilor.Spania. Formula de calcul a pensiilor în Spania are la bază principiul duratei minime acontribuţiei.P_old = Sb x (50% + 3% x (Yi – 15) + 2% x (Ti – 25))unde 16 Yi 25; 26 Ti 35;În cazul asiguraţilor de peste 65 de ani, pentru fiecare an suplimentar pensia semajorează cu 2% dacă au minim 15 ani de contribuţii, iar în cazul asiguraţilor cu peste 40de ani de contribuţii, creşterea pensiei este cu 3% pentru fiecare an suplimentar. Pensia seplăteşte de 14 ori pe an.În Spania, în ianuarie 2010 Guvernul a anunţat intenţia de a mări vârsta depensionare de la 65 de ani la 67 de ani şi creşterea numărului de ani de contribuţie utilizaţiin calculul pensiilor.Slovenia. În Slovenia formula de calcul a pensiei are în vedere criteriul veniturilorînlocuite, numărul anilor de asigurare, sexul persoanei, vârsta la data pensionării.Formula de calcul a pensiei pentru bărbaţi:310Revista Română de Statistică – Supliment Trim IV/2012

P_old = 35% x PRB + 1,5% x (Y – 40)Formula de calcul a pensiei pentru femei:P_old = 38% x PRB + 1,5% x (Y – 40)Condiţiile sunt : numărul minim al anilor de asigurare (Y) să fie cel puţin egali cu15; PRB este rata pensiei de bază.Max (P_old) = 72,5% x PRBPensionarii au dreptul la o sumă forfetară ca bonus anual de € 223.55 sau 367.95€, care este evaluată în două sume diferite, în funcţie de cuantumul pensiei (suma dereferinţă este de 407.65€).Slovacia. În Slovacia sistemul de pensii este organizat pe doi piloni. Pensia pentru limită devârstă se stabileşte după o formulă similară cu cea din România. Această formulă este:P_old = APEP x PPI x CPVunde APEP este punctajul mediu anual al câştigurilor pe întreaga perioadă de asigurare,calculat prin raportarea câştigurilor individuale la media câştigurilor pe economie; PPI esteperioada de asigurare la pensie (numărul de ani), CPV este valoarea curentă a pensiei carese calculează prin multiplicarea procentului de 1,25% cu valoarea medie anuală acâştigurilor din economia naţională din anul anterior pensionării. Pentru calcularea pensiilorîn anul 2010 se utilizează o valoare de 9,2246 €. Plafonul câştigurilor APEP este limitat la3 puncte, iar în anul 2010 este limitat la 2,65 puncte.În Pilonul II, beneficiile depind de anuităţile acumulate şi perioada de asigurareaconvenţională.Suedia. În Suedia, pensiile se calculează în funcţie de câştigurile legate de pensia pentrulimită de vârstă, câştigurile legate de pensia suplimentară (vechimea sistemului), rezervelepremium ale fondului de pensii, durata de rezidenţă în Suedia (minim 40 de ani).Pensia medie pentru limită de vârstă este în funcţie de activele totale de pensiiacumulate, factorul de anuitate, speranţa medie de viaţă a generaţiei, vârsta de pensionarea fiecărei persoane şi creşterea economică. Drepturile de pensie se indexează anual înfuncţie de rata de creştere a venituilor. În medie, creşterea salariilor este de 1,6% pe an.Rata de creştere a veniturilor se utilizează pentru ajustarea anuală a pensiilor şi pentrustabilirea pensiei în primul an.P_bază = AT/ FaFA = f( Le, Vi, Rw)unde:AT sunt activele totale; Fa este factorul de anuitate. Le este speranţa de viaţă a generaţiei,Vi este vârsta de pensionare individuală, Rw este rata de creştere (norma) prognozată aveniturilor medii.Factorul de anuitate funcţionează astfel: după primul an de la stabilirea pensiei,pensia este indexată în funcţie de creşterea salariului mediu redus de normă. Factorul deanuitate de calcul a pensiei în primii ani este afectat de normă în aşa fel încât valoareaactualizată a pensiilor unei persoane care trăieşte atât timp cât speranţa de viaţă ageneraţiei, este acelaşi ca în cazul în care pensia în primul an ar fi fost calculată fărănorma.Pensia suplimentară se obţine în funcţie de numărul de ani cu venituri depensionare câştigate în Suedia (până la 30 de ani), mărimea venitului, vârsta de pensionareşi evoluţia preţurilor (creşterea veniturilor) pentru persoanele de peste 65 de ani.Relaţia de calcul este:P_suplimentară = 60% x Pp x Y ,unde Pp este valoarea punctului de pensie, Y este numărul de ani (15 ani din cei mai buni30 de ani).Revista Română de Statistică – Supliment Trim IV/2012 311

Veniturile sunt transformate anual de Autoritatea fiscală în venituri de pensionareşi puncte de pensie.Pensia suplimentară premium de rezervă finanţată complet se stabileşte pe bazaprincipiilor convenţionale de asigurare, a duratei de realizare a câştigurilor, a vârstei depensionare şi a speranţei de viaţă a generaţiei.Pensia suedeză se calculează în funcţie de factorul de anuitate care reflectă duratade viaţă rămasă în funcţie de speranţa de viaţă a generaţiei şi vârsta pensionarului.Beneficiarul poate alege păstrarea capitalului din pensii într-un fond la alegere,care-i va recalcula anual pensia în funcţie de dezvoltarea economică şi rentabilitateafondului sau va fi plasat într-un cont de asigurări tradiţional care-i va repartiza şi garantaplata pensiei la o valoare fixată lunară.Pensia completă se stabileşte după luarea în calcul a criteriul familial şi a durateide rezidenţă.Pensia se reduce proporţional cu 1/40 după numărul anilor de şedere în Suedia,dacă durata de rezidenţă este mai mică de 40 de ani.CRITERIULSOCIALPersoanănecăsătorităPersoanăcăsătorităDURATADEREZIDENŢĂCOEFICIENTDEMULTIPLICAREA PENSIEI DEBAZĂ (€)CUANTUMPENSIE40 ani 2.13 SEK 90,312 (€ 9,406)40 ani 1.9 SEK 80,560 (€ 8,390)Ungaria. Sistemul de pensii din Ungaria prevede că în Pilonul I cuantumul pensiei sestabileşte în funcţie de perioada de asigurare şi de venitul mediu net reevaluat lunar alpersoanei câştigat începând cu anul 1988.Procentul de calcul se acordă diferenţiat în funcţie de perioada de asigurare.Formula de calcul este:P_old = Sb x (33% + 2% x (Yi – 10) + 1% x (Ti – 25)+ 1,5% x (Zi – 35) + 2% x (Qi –40))unde 11 Yi 25; 26 Ti 35; 36 Zi 40; 41 Qi ; Condiţia minimă destagiu de cotizare este de 10 ani.Procentul maxim posibil este de 75% din pensia de asigurări sociale în cazul încare persoana nu este afiliată la nici un fond de pensii private din al doilea pilon.Pilonul II este un fond privat bazat pe acumulare şi conturi individuale. Înschimbul contribuţiilor plătite, pensionarul primeşte anuităţi (unităţi de fond) careacumlează periodic beneficii. Pensionarul poate alege plata pensiei sau plata unei sumeforfetare.Bibliografie selectivă[1]. Anghelache, C., (2008) - „Tratat de statistică teoretică şi economică”, EdituraEconomică, Bucureşti[2]. Anghelache, C., Lilea, F.P.C., (2012) - „Econometrie”, Editura Artifex, Bucureşti.312Revista Română de Statistică – Supliment Trim IV/2012

[3]. Aaron, H.J.(1966) - „The Social Insurance Paradox”, Canadian Journal of Economicsand Political Science,33,pp.371-374.[4]. Anghelache, G.V., (2004) – „Piaţa de capital. Caracteristici.Evoluţii.Tranziţii”,Editura Economică, pp.20-30.[5]. Anton - Carp, A. (2011) - „The Reform’s Management in The Social Security Systemand Intergenerational Agreement”, ICMIE 2011 Politehnica University of Bucharest,Industrial Management Chair, Publicat în Proceedings şi în vol. „Change Managementin a Dynamic Environment” - Bucharest; Niculescu Publishing House, 2011, ISBN978-973-748-658-5, pp.271-279, categoria B+.[6]. Belan, P., Pestieu, P., (1998) - „Pareto-Improving Social Security Reform”, GenevaPapers on Risk and Insurance Theory, pp.119-125.[7]. Boadway, R., Wildasin, D., (1989) - „A Median Voter Model of Social Security”,International Economic Review, 30, pp.307-328.[8]. Diamond, P.A. (1996)- „Proposals to Restructure Social Security”, Journal ofEconomic Perspectives[9]. Gorbe, Perşa, I., Anton, Carp, A. (2009) - „Migration and Social Security of TheRomanians in Spain and in Italy” – „International Conference - Post-Communism andNew European Identity”, Oradea, 5-7 November 2009- Research Centre on Identityand migration issues, Faculty of Political Science and Communication in cooperationwith Gheorghe Sincai District Library, http://www.emigration.ro/Conferences/Preliminary_program_Oradea2009.pdf,categoria B+ .Revista Română de Statistică – Supliment Trim IV/2012 313

Considerations Regarding the ProffesionalIndividuals and Legal Entities According to theNew Civil CodeLecturer Ioana Nely MILITARU PhDioananelimilitaru@yahoo.comLaw DepartmentAcademy of Economic Studies, BucharestAbstractThe paper is divided into three parts. The first part, regarding the preliminaryaspects, contain an overview of the commercial and non-commercial professionals, in theNew Civil Code provisions. The second part defines the concept of professional and theconcept of enterprise as a systemic organized activity and also the distinction between thecommercial and non-commercial person, as the laws in force provide. The third partexclusively treats the commercial professionals.Key words: professionals, individual enterprise, family enterprise, economicactivityJEL Classification: K201. Aspecte preliminareSubiectele raporturilor de dreptul afacerilor sunt: profesioniştii comercianţi,persoane fizice, persoane juridice (în principiu, societăţi comerciale), profesioniştiinecomercianţi (în principiu, persoane care desfăşoară activităţi liberale) şi persoanele dedrept civil, fizice şi juridice, care nu au calitatea profesionişti, la care Codul civil în art. 3alin. 1 face referire astfel ,,alte subiecte de drept civil,, 1 .1. Profesioniştii comercianţi, persoane fizice sunt: persoane fizice autorizate,întreprindei individuale şi întreprinderi familiale. Aceste categorii de persoane -profesioniști - sunt reglementate de Ordonanţa de Urgenţă a Guvernului nr. 44/2008,privind desfăşurarea activităţilor economice de către persoanele fizice autorizate,întreprinderile individuale şi întreprinderile familiale 2 ;Profesioniştii comercianţi, persoane juridice sunt, în principal: societăţilecomerciale, companiile naţionale, societăţile naţionale, regiile autonome, organizaţiicooperatiste, societăţi cooperative, grupurile de interes economic, societăţile europene,grupurile europene de interes economic. Menţionăm câteva acte normative carereglementează această categorie de profesionişti: Legea nr. 31/1990 privind societăţilecomerciale, republicată şi modificată 3 ; Legea nr. 26/1990 privind la registrul comerţului,republicată şi modificată 4 ; Legea nr. 85/2006 privind procedura insolvenţei, modificată 5 ;11 Pentru dezvoltări, a se vedea, Gheorghe Piperea, Drept comercial. Întreprinderea în reglementareaNCC, Editura C. H. Beck, Bucureşti, 2012, p. 5 şi urm.2 Publicată în M. Of., Partea I nr. 328 din 25. 04. 2008.3 Legea a fost republicată în M. Of. Partea I, nr. 1066 din 17. 11. 2004. Ulterior a fost modificată.Ultima modificare a fost prin O.U.G. nr. 2/2012.4 Modificată prin Legea nr. 84/2010, Publicată în M. Of., nr. 323 din 17. 05. 2010314Revista Română de Statistică – Supliment Trim IV/2012

Legea nr. 161/2003 privind unele măsuri pentru asigurarea transparenței în exercitareademnităților publice, a funcțiilor publice și în mediul de afaceri, prevenirea și sancționareacorupției, numai în privinţa grupurilor de interes economic – comercianţi;2. Profesioniştii necomercianţi sunt- persoanele care exercită, în principal, profesii liberale: avocaţi (cu cabinetindividual), farmacişti, medici (cu cabinet medical individual), experţi contabili, contabiliautorizaţi, executori judecătoreşti, mediatori, ziarişti, notari etc (potrivit art. 1 alin. 2O.U.G. nr. 44/2008); Aceste categorii de persoane îşi desfăşoară activitatea fie:a) ca persoane fizice autorizate care nu au calitatea de comercianţi; fieb) ca societăţi simple reglementate de Codul civil, spre exemplu, societatea civilămedicală, societatea civilă de avocatură, societatea civilă profesională de practicieni îninsolvenţă etc;- unele grupuri de interes economic, deoarece potrivit Legii nr. 161/2003 acesteentităţi juridice pot avea sau nu calitatea de comercianţi;- persoanele care desfăşoară activităţi economice pentru care legea a instituit unregim juridic special, anumite restricţii de desfăşurare sau alte interdicţii (art. 1 alin. 3O.U.G. nr. 44/2008);- unele instituţii publice, spre exemplu: spitale, universităţi, teatre, autorităţipublice de reglementare, supraveghere şi control (C.S.A, C.N.V.M. B.N.R).- organizaţii non- guvernamentale, spre exemplu: asociaţii şi fundaţii (O.G.26/2000, Legea nr. 246/2005 pentru aprobarea O.G. 26/2000), cluburi sportive, cultereligioase.3. alte persoane de drept civil sunt:- persoanele fizice, care nu au calitatea de profesionişti,- persoanele juridice de drept public: statul, unităţile administrativ teritoriale (oraş,judeţ, comună), Parlamentul României (puterea legislativă), Banca Naţională a României,Organismele puterii executive (Administraţia Prezidenţială şi Preşedintele României,Guvernul României, Ministerele, Instituţia prefecturii, Instituţiile publice, Misiunilediplomatice şi consulare), Organele autorităţii judecătoreşti (Înalta Curte de Casaţie şiJustiţie, Consiliul Superior al Magistraturii, Curţile de Apel, Tribunalele, MinisterulPublic), Curtea Constituţională, Curtea de Conturi, partidele politice 6 ;- persoanele juridice de drept privat: asociaţii de proprietari 7 , sindicatele 8 ,patronatele 9 .2. Delimitări ale noțiunilor Pornind de la definiţia prevăzută de Codul civil (art. 3 alin. 2) cu privire lanoţiunea de profesionist ,,sunt consideraţi profesionişti toţi cei care exploatează oîntreprindere,,. Rezultă, în principal că, potrivit Codului civil, distincţia dintre profesioniştişi celelalte persoane de drept civil este faptul ,,exploatării unei întreprinderi,,.Constituie exploatarea unei întreprinderi exercitarea sistematică, de către una saumai multe persoane, a unei activităţi organizate, ce constă în producerea, administrarea ori5 Modificată prin O.U.G. nr. 86/2006 publicată în M.Of. din 22. 11. 2006.6 Legea nr. 14/2003 privind finanţarea activităţii partidelor politice şi a companiilor electorale.7 Legea nr. 230/2007 privind înfiinţarea, organizarea şi funcţionarea asociaţilor de proprietari.8 Legea nr. 54/2003 privind sindicatele.9 Legea nr. nr. 356/2001 privind patronatele.Revista Română de Statistică – Supliment Trim IV/2012 315

înstrăinarea de bunuri sau servicii, indiferent dacă are sau nu ca scop obţinerea de profit(art. 3 alin. 3 Cod civil) 10 . Distincţia dintre profesioniştii comercianţi şi profesioniştii necomercianţi, esteîn principal, cerinţa înregistrării la Oficiul registrului comerţului a comercianţilorprofesionişti, în timp ce profesioniştii necomercianţii, care, în principal, desfăşoarăactivităţi liberale, se autorizează la un corp profesional.Profesioniştii necomercianţi sunt, în principal, persoanele care desfăşoară activităţiliberale. Formele de exercitare a profesiilor liberale cu drept de libera practică, sedesfăşoară:- in regim independent, prin infiinţarea de cabinete individuale, cabinete asociate,societati simple (civile) profesionale 11 ,- sau in regim salarial, prin încheierea unor contracte individuale de muncă cubeneficiarul serviciului de liberal.În vederea desfăşurării acestor activităţi economice (liberale) este necesarăîndeplinirea unor condiţii de pregătire profesională şi/sau de atestare a pregătiriiprofesionale (art. 8 alin. 3 O.U.G. 44/2008).Atributul organizarii şi inregistrarii formelor de exercitare a profesiunilor liberalereprezintă prerogative exclusive ale organizatiilor/corpurilor profesionale, care, prinmecanisme proprii profesiunilor pot selecta şi autoriza formele de exercitare aleprofesiunilor liberale. De asemenea, raspunderea prestatorului pentru serviciile profesionaleformeaza obiectul conceptului de asigurare de raspundere civilă profesională/ pentru culpaprofesională;Prin urmare profesioniştii care desfăşoară activităi liberale se autorizează la uncorp profesional, spre exemplu, experţii contabili şi contabilii autorizaţi la CECCAR(Corpul experţilor contabili şi contabililor autorizaţi), farmaciştii la Colegiul farmaciştilor,medicii la Colegiul medicilor, executorii judecătoreşti la Corpul executorilor judecătoreşti,psihologii la Colegiul psihologilor etc.Corpurile sau organizaţiile profesionale sunt foruri profesionale recunoscute,entităti independente de autoritatile statului, specializate, autorizate să funcţioneze prin legiorganice, conduse de catre personalităţi unanim recunoscute ale profesiunii respective, carereglementează unitar exercitarea unei profesiuni (liberale), necomerciale.Profesioniştii necomercianţi care desfăşoară activităţi liberale în regimindependent îşi exercită profesia sub formă juridică de:- persoane fizice autorizate, care se înregistrează la registrul comerţului, fără adeveni comercianţi prin aceasta, deoarece O.U.G. 44/2008 prevede expres că PFA poate ficomerciant sau nu, potrivit art. 20, fie sunt organizaţi ca- societăţi simple (civile): de avocatură, ale medicilor, de contabili experţi,autorizaţi etc. Societăţile simple se constituie, exclusiv, potrivit Codului civil nu dobândescpersonalitate juridică, decât dacă asociaţii doresc acest lucru, printr-un act de modficare acontractului de societate, indicând în mod expres forma juridică a acesteia punând de acordtoate clauzele sale cu dispoziţiile legale aplicabile societăţii nou- înfiinţate. În acest cazsocietate se înregistrează la registrul comerţului, iar activitatea liberală ce formează obiectul10 A se vedea, Popescu-Cruceru Anca, „Constancy and Novelty in the regulation of companies in theNew Civil Code of Romania”, Scientific Research Themes/Studies Communications at the NationalSeminary „Octav Onicescu” Romanian Statistical Review trim.III/2011, CNCSIS B+, cod ISSN1018-046X, p. 171-174.11 Codul civil reglementează societăţile simple în art. 1892, acestea fiind societăţile civile potrivitreglementării anterioare din vechiul cod civil.316Revista Română de Statistică – Supliment Trim IV/2012

de activitate va trebui autorizată la un corp profesional;Referitor la asociaţii şi fundaţii, acestea dobândesc personalitate juridică prinînscrierea sa la Registrul asociaţiilor şi fundaţiilor aflat la grefa judecătoriei în a căreicircumscriţie teritorială îşi are sediul (art. 17 alin. 2 O. G. nr. 26/2000)3. Profesioniştii comercianţiProfesioniştii comercianţi sunt:1. persoane fizice, potrivit art. 4 din O.U.G. nr 44/2008, care pot desfăşuraactivităţile economice după cum urmează:a) individual şi independent, ca persoane fizice autorizate. Persoana fizicăautorizată, potrivit art 20 alin. 1, din O.U.G. nr. 44/2008, poate avea, sau nu, calitatea decomerciant.b) ca întreprinzători titulari ai unei întreprinderi individuale; Întreprinzătorulpersoană fizică titular al întreprinderii individuale este comerciant persoană fizică de la dataînregistrării sale în registrul comerţuluic) ca membri ai unei întreprinderi familiale. Întreprindera familială se înregistreazăla registrul comerţului, dată de la care membrii acesteia devin comercianţi persoane fizice 12 .2. persoane juridice, potrivit art. art 1 alin. 2 din Legea nr. 26/1990, regiileautonome, societătile comerciale, companiile naţionale şi societăţile naţionale, regiileautonome şi organizţiile cooperatiste, respectiv, societățile cooperative 13 . Sintetizânddispoziţiile corespunzătoare din actele normative enunţate mai sus comercianţii sunt:- societăţile comerciale, companiile naţionale, societăţile naţionale (Legea nr.31/1990 și 26/1990, modificate), societăţile europene 14 ;- regiile autonome, înfiinţate prin reorganizarea unităţilor economice de stat,potrivit Legii nr. 15/1990 – modificată - în ramurile strategice ale economiei naţionale 15 .Regiile autonome sunt persoane juridice care funcţionează pe bază de gestiune economicăşi autonomie financiară;- organizaţiile cooperatiste 16 , au personalitate juridică şi îşi desfăşoară activitateape baza principiilor gestiunii economice. Organizaţiile cooperatiste desfăşoară activitate deproducere şi desfacere de mărfuri şi de prestări servicii;- societăţile cooperative, potrivit Legii nr 1/2005 privind organizarea şifuncţionarea cooperaţiei 17 ;- grupurile de interes economic reprezintă o asociere de persoane fizice saujuridice în scopul înlesnirii sau dezvoltării activităţii economice a membrilor săi, precum şial îmbunătăţirii rezultatelor activităţii respective (art. 118 alin. 1 din Legea nr. 161/2003.12 A se vedea, Stanciu D. Cărpenaru, Tratat de drept comercial român, conform noului Cod civil,Bucureşti, Universul Juridic, Bucureşti, 2012, p. 31 şi urm.13 A se vedea pentru detalii, Popescu-Cruceru Anca, op cit. p. 172.14 Anca Popescu-Cruceru, Eugenia-Gabriela Leuciuc, Viorel Bănulescu, “Present and Future ofEuropean Normative Constructions: Societas Europaea and Societas Privata Europaea”, AnaleleUniversităţii Ovidius Constanţa. Seria: Ştiinţe Economice, Vol. XII, Issue 1/2012, CNCSIS B+,indexată în bazele de date EBSCO, RePec, DoAJ, Cabell, pp. 270-27415 A se vedea, H.G. 266/1993, privind ramurile şi domeniile în care funcţionează regii autonome deinteres naţional (M. Of. Partea I, nr. 156/1993); şi O.U.G. nr. 30/1997 privind reorganizarea regiilorautonome (M. Of. Partea I, nr. 125/1997)16 A se vedea, Legea nr. 566/2004, privind cooperaţia agricolă (M. Of. Partea I, nr. 1236/2004);O.U.G. 97/2000, privind organizaţiile cooperatise de credit (M. Of. Partea I, nr. 330/2000);17 M. Of. Partea I, nr. 172/2005;Revista Română de Statistică – Supliment Trim IV/2012 317

Grupul de interes economic are personalitate juridică; poate avea calitatea de comerciantsau necomerciant.- persoanele fizice, potrivit O. U. G. nr 44/2008, şi anume, persoane fiziceautorizate, întreprinzători titulari ai unei întreprinderi individuale, membrii ai uneiîntreprinderi familialeBibliografie selectivă[1]. Gheorghe Piperea, Drept comercial. Întreprinderea în reglementarea NCC, Editura C.H. Beck, Bucureşti, 2012.[2]. Popescu-Cruceru Anca, „Constancy and Novelty in the regulation of companies in theNew Civil Code of Romania”, Scientific Research Themes/Studies Communications atthe National Seminary „Octav Onicescu” Romanian Statistical Review trim.III/2011.[3]. Stanciu D. Cărpenaru, Tratat de drept comercial român, conform noului Cod civil,Bucureşti, Universul Juridic, Bucureşti, 2012.[4]. Anca Popescu-Cruceru, Eugenia-Gabriela Leuciuc, Viorel Bănulescu, “Present andFuture of European Normative Constructions: Societas Europaea and Societas PrivataEuropaea”, Analele Universităţii Ovidius Constanţa. Seria: Ştiinţe Economice, Vol.XII, Issue 1/2012, CNCSIS B+, indexată în bazele de date EBSCO, RePec, DoAJ,Cabell, pp. 270-274[5]. Legea nr. 14/2003 privind finanţarea activităţii partidelor politice şi a companiilorelectorale.[6]. Legea nr. 230/2007 privind înfiinţarea, organizarea şi funcţionarea asociaţilor deproprietari.[7]. Legea nr. 54/2003 privind sindicatele.[8]. Legea nr. nr. 356/2001 privind patronatele.[9]. H.G. 266/1993, privind ramurile şi domeniile în care funcţionează regii autonome deinteres naţional (M. Of. Partea I, nr. 156/1993); şi O.U.G. nr. 30/1997 privindreorganizarea regiilor autonome (M. Of. Partea I, nr. 125/1997)[10]. Legea nr. 566/2004, privind cooperaţia agricolă (M. Of. Partea I, nr. 1236/2004);O.U.G. 97/2000, privind organizaţiile cooperatise de credit (M. Of. Partea I, nr.330/2000).318Revista Română de Statistică – Supliment Trim IV/2012

Integrated Approach on Statistics on Short-term inPracticeProfessor Constantin ANGHELACHE PhDactincon@yahoo.com“Artifex” University of Bucharest/Academy of Economic Studies, BucharestProfessor Vergil VOINEAGU PhDvergil.voineagu@insse.roAcademy of Economic Studies, BucharestProfessor Ion PÂRŢACHI PhDipartachi@ase.mdAcademy of Economic Studies of Moldavia – ChișinăuOleg CARA Phd Studentoleg.cara@yahoo.comNational Institute for Statistics of MoldaviaDiana Valentina SOARE PhD StudentAcademy of Economic Studies, BucharestAbstractThe increasing demand of relevant, viable, coherent data users, in useful time, toearly detec economic vulnerabilities and turnpoints in business cycles, especially duringthe economical and financial crisis, demands a prompt, coordinated response by statisticalinstitutions. High quality short term statistics, act to answer to these informationrequirements, being of secial interests for emerging market economies, such as theMoldavian one, as they are extremely vulnerable in the face of economical recession.Key words: statistics, sample, units, distribution, inferenceJEL Classification: C10, C181. Organizarea statisticii pe termen scurt în Republica Moldova până în anul2011Statisticile pe termen scurt (STS) sunt destinate măsurării evoluţiei economiceinfraanuale (cu frecvenţă lunară şi/sau trimestrială) pe plan naţional, dar şi regional,cuprinzând un set de indicatori, precum: indicele cifrei de afaceri, indicele de producţie şiindicii preţurilor în industrie şi construcţii, indicele comenzilor noi în industrie, efectivul şicâştigurile salariale ale persoanelor angajate, orele lucrate etc. STS acoperă patru domeniieconomice majore: industrial, de construcţii, comerţul cu amănuntul şi alte servicii nefinanciare, destinate pieţei (de transport, informaţii şi comunicaţii etc.)Statisticile pe termen scurt până în anul 2011 se bazau pe cercetările statisticeinfraanuale (lunare, trimestriale) ale întreprinderilor, realizate tradiţional şi dezvoltateseparat, în cadrul statisticilor ramurale (statisticii: pieţei muncii, industriei, construcţiilor şiinvestiţiilor în capital fix, comerţului şi serviciilor de piaţă etc.).Printre caracteristicile principale ale cercetărilor statistice infraanuale privind STSîn perioada nominalizată putem numi următoarele:Revista Română de Statistică – Supliment Trim IV/2012 319

Principiul funcţional al organizării cercetărilor, care presupune colectareainformaţiei de la unităţile statistice fără a ţine cont de genul principal de activitate alacestora. Astfel, de exemplu, daca întreprinderea cu activitate principală în domeniulindustriei prelucrătoare practica genuri secundare de activitate, să zicem de comerţ şiprestări de servicii destinate pieţei, atunci unitatea raportoare avea de depus la organele destatistică (OS), lunar, chestionare statistice privind: i) activitatea industrială; ii) activitateade comerţ; iii) activitatea de servicii prestate populaţiei, precum şi o serie de altechestionare ce nu ţin cont de genul principal de activitate al întreprinderii (privind statisticamuncii, investiţiilor, etc.). Astfel, existau multiple chestionare statistice pe carerespondentul statistic trebuia să le prezinte pe parcursul anului la organul de statistică.Principiul exhaustiv al colectării statisticilor pe termen scurt. Majoritateacercetărilor statistice pe termen scurt erau bazate pe studiul complet al unităţilor statistice,fără a ţine cont de dimensiunea acestora. Astfel, cercetările statistice se caracterizau printrunnumăr mare de respondenţi statistici cercetaţi infraanual. De exemplu, în cercetareastatistică trimestrială nr.5-C „Consumurile şi cheltuielile întreprinderii” erau cuprinse circa23 mii de întreprinderi, faţă de 16 mii de unităţi cercetate anual în cadrul AncheteiStructurale Anuale, care de fapt este considerată cea mai extinsă cercetare statistică înîntreprinderi cu periodicitate ce nu depăşeşte un an. Existenţa dublării informaţiei în diferitechestionare statistice. Aceiaşi indicatori se regăseau în mai multe chestionare statistice,existând şi inconsistenţe în raportarea acestora. Astfel, de exemplu, indicatorii aferenţinumărului de personal se conţineau în 6 chestionare cu periodicitate lunară şi trimestrială.Totodată, conceptul utilizat varia în diferite chestionare (de exemplu: numărul mediu alsalariaţilor, efectivul de personal, numărul mediu scriptic al salariaţilor pentru calculareaproductivităţii muncii, numărul mediu scriptic al personalului ocupat în activitateaprincipală), fapt care cauza dificultăţi respondentului la raportarea acestui indicator şiinfluenţa negativ asupra calităţii datelor primare.Existenţa, în rezultatul cauzelor susmenţionate, dar şi a termenelor diferite deprezentare a chestionarelor statistice, a presiunii informaţionale destul de mari asuprarespondenţilor.Criteriile şi modul de raportare de către unităţile statistice pentru unele cercetărinu erau strict definite. Astfel, într-o serie de cercetări statistice unităţi respondente erau atâtîntreprinderile, cât şi unităţile locale (subdiviziunile structurale ale întreprinderii amplasateîn diferite raioane ale ţării). Astfel, puteau fi cazuri de depunere la OS a chestionarelorstatistice: i) în mod centralizat, de către întreprinderea-mamă (care includea activitateaeconomică a tuturor subdiviziunilor sale indiferent în care raioane/unităţi administrativteritoriale(UAT) se aflau acestea), sau ii) decentralizat, de către subdiviziunile structuraleale întreprinderilor, care dispuneau de unităţi locale în diferite UAT, cu prezentareachestionarelor statistice la organul teritorial de statistică, în raza căruia acestea activau.Astfel, puteau fi cazuri de subraportare sau dublare a informaţiei statistice colectate.Cercul de respondenţi pentru cercetările statistice în multe cazuri se stabileanemijlocit de către organele teritoriale pentru statistică (OTS) şi era slab dirijat din oficiulcentral de statistică. Registrul Naţional al Unităţilor Statistice nu era utilizat pe deplin încadrul cercetărilor pe termen scurt. Listele respondenţilor statistici, create de OTS eraubazate pe cercul unităţilor statistice, care tradiţional prezentau informaţia statistică. Dincauza utilizării limitate a Registrului Naţional al Unităţilor Statistice erau, de asemenea,cazuri când, pentru aceiaşi întreprindere, în diverse cercetări statistice, figurau diferite dateprivind genul principal de activitate, formă de proprietate, formă organizatorico-juridicăetc., afectând calitatea statisticilor dezagregate pe criteriile respective.320Revista Română de Statistică – Supliment Trim IV/2012

În pofida dezvoltării statisticilor naţionale pe termen scurt în procesul tranziţiei laeconomia de piaţă, existau goluri importante privind sistemul de indicatori şi metodologiade calcul a acestora în comparaţie cu standardele internaţionale, în special cele ale UniuniiEuropene. Existau goluri privind cercetarea serviciilor de piaţă, în special celor prestateîntreprinderilor, cercetarea comenzilor întreprinderilor industriale. Aceasta se lămureşte atâtprin constrângerile financiare, umane, lipsa de expertiză necesară, cât şi prin „deprinderea”multor utilizatori statistici, în special ai organelor administraţiei publice, de a opera cuindicatorii statistici produşi tradiţional. Astfel, pe de o parte, statisticile pe termen scurt nuerau pe deplin relevante pentru economia de piaţă şi nu asigurau comparabilitatea acestorape plan internaţional, iar, pe de altă parte, organul de statistică aloca resurse considerabilepentru producerea unor date „tradiţionale” cu valoare informaţională redusă în noilecondiţii economice aloca resurse considerabile pentru producerea unor date „tradiţionale”cu valoare informaţională redusă în noile condiţii economice. Totodată, sistemul naţionalde statistică al unei ţări trebuie să-şi organizeze activitatea, să realizeze cercetările statisticeîn conformitate cu necesităţile informaţionale ale utilizatorilor naţionali, dar şiinternaţionali (în virtutea obligaţiunilor statului ca membru al organizaţiilor internaţionale,pentru informarea potenţialilor investitori etc.), în conformitate cu standardeleinternaţionale, pentru a asigura calitatea înaltă, inclusiv compatibilitatea internaţională ainformaţiei statistice.Procesele de colectare, procesare şi stocare a statisticilor rezultate din cercetărilestatistice pe termen scurt (ca şi în cazul altor cercetări a întreprinderilor) pentru fiecare dinchestionare erau separate (de “ tip furnal”), ne fiind corelate şi, în majoritatea cazurilor,bazate pe aplicaţii informatice învechite, ce nu permiteau aplicarea metodelor avansatestatistice şi erau extrem de rigide, orice modificare în chestionar şi/sau program deprelucrare genera dificultăţi enorme.2. Implementarea cercetării statistice integrate pe termen scurtAstfel, atât din punct de vedere a comparabilităţii internaţionale şi coerenţeiinterne a STS, metodelor şi modului de organizare a cercetărilor respective a apărutnecesitatea renovării statisticilor pe termen scurt, creării unui sistem modern şi eficient aSTS, care ar permite: armonizarea statisticilor pe termen scurt cu standardele Uniunii Europene îndomeniu, în special adaptarea la cerinţele Regulamentelor UE nr.1165/1998 şi 1158/2005,cu amendamentele ulterioare; optimizarea programului cercetărilor STS, fiind eliminată repetarea colectăriiaceloraşi indicatori; implementarea metodelor prin sondaj de organizare a cercetărilorSTS/culegere a datelor; consolidarea activităţii şi centralizarea lucrărilor de eşantionare şiinferenţă statistică; micşorarea presiunii informaţionale asupra agenţilor economici şi optimizareatermenelor de prezentare a rapoartelor (chestionarelor) statistice pe termen scurt; perfecţionarea Registrului Unităţilor Statistice şi transformarea acestuia înunica sursă pentru stabilirea cercului unităţilor statistice participante în cercetare; asigurarea standardizării proceselor, a infrastructurii tehnice comune etc.În rezultatul examinării regulamentelor UE privind STS, experienţei relevante alealtor state, în special: Franţei, României, Norvegiei, ţărilor baltice, în anul 2010 au fostexaminate soluţiile metodologice, tehnice şi logistice, care ar asigura fiabilitatea şi eficienţaRevista Română de Statistică – Supliment Trim IV/2012 321

noului sistem al statisticilor pe termen scurt, atât din punct de vedere a BNS cât şi alrespondenţilor.Ţinând cont de avantajele abordării holistice la organizarea cercetărilor statistice,prioritate lansată la nivelul UE, precum şi realizările practice ale acesteia, în domeniul STSrealizate de Institutul Naţional de Statistică prin implementarea anchetei „UNICA”,experienţa acestei ţări s-a dovedit a fi foarte relevantă pentru ţara noastră. Astfel, ladesignul noului sistem al STS a fost ales anume exemplul modelului românesc.Complexitatea sarcinii de reformare a cercetărilor statistice pe termen scurt şicreare a cercetării „ integrate” a necesitat o abordare conceptuală absolut nouă şi, respectiv,realizarea unor activităţi de ordin metodologic, organizatoric şi tehnic importante.Trebuia să se ţină cont de necesitatea: reconsiderării sistemului de indicatori, definiţiilor, modului de calcul aacestora, pentru asigurarea armonizării cu standardele UE. Indicatorii care şi-au pierdutactualitatea, cu valoare informaţionala redusă urmau să fie excluşi şi înlocuiţi cu alţii noi, inconformitate cu cerinţele UE pentru producerea indicatorilor statistici pe termen scurt indomeniul industriei, construcţiilor, comerţului si serviciilor, personalului si câştigurilorsalariale; expunerii cât mai clare pentru respondenţi a indicatorilor în chestionare şi aindicaţiilor pentru completarea acestora, luând în consideraţie prevederile standardelor decontabilitate; revederii principiului de organizare a cercetărilor statistice/colectării datelor,principiul funcţional fiind substituit cu cel instituţional, adică conform genului principal deactivitate al întreprinderilor/unităţilor statistice; plus la aceasta, colectarea datelor statistice infraanuale urma să fie organizatădoar de la întreprinderi, nu şi de la unităţile locale (cum se proceda în unele studii statisticepe termen scurt); stabilirii de către BNS în mod centralizat a listei unităţilor supuse cercetării,pe baza Registrului Naţional al Unităţilor Statistice; implementării pe scară largă a metodei prin sondaj a cercetării unităţilor dedimensiuni mici (criteriul principal fiind stabilit efectivul de salariaţi); - optimizăriiprocesului de colectare, procesare şi stocare a datelor, cu elaborarea soluţiilor informaticerespective, elaborării aplicaţiilor pentru asigurarea procesării şi stocării informaţiei pebaza soluţiilor IT moderne, acre ar permite integrarea în viitorul sistem informaţionalrenovat.În rezultatul realizării lucrărilor de pregătire, în ianuarie 2011 a fost lansatăcercetarea statistică integrată pe termen scurt (cercetarea integrată, sau CITS), cuperiodicitate lunară.În cadrul implementării CITS a fost realizată integrarea din punct de vederemetodologic şi organizatoric a 11 chestionare statistice, din domeniul industriei,construcţiilor, comerţului şi serviciilor, salarizării şi pieţei muncii, care se realizau separatîn cadrul mai multor direcţii de producţie statistică ale BNS.Cercetarea statistică integrată cuprinde 4 chestionare statistice lunare, specifice, îndependenţă de genul principal de activitate ale unităţilor (privind indicatorii pe termen scurtîn: industrie; construcţii; comerţ, servicii ne financiare destinate pieţei, agricultură; şiprivind câştigurile salariale în unităţile altor sectoare economice) şi 2 anchete trimestriale(privind consumurile, cheltuielile şi investiţiile întreprinderii).322Revista Română de Statistică – Supliment Trim IV/2012

E necesar de menţionat, că în scopul compilării indicatorilor macroeconomiciconform SCN în cadrul statisticilor infraanuale a fost păstrată cercetarea trimestrială privindveniturile, consumurile şi cheltuielile întreprinderii.Chestionarele au compartimente comune pentru toate unităţile raportoare,indiferent de genul principal de activitate şi anume: date privind numărul persoanelor ocupate (lunar); date privind retribuirea muncii (lunar); date aferente cifrei de afaceri (lunar), cu excepţia unităţilor, pentru care acestindicator nu este relevant (unităţilor bugetare, instituţiilor financiare etc); date aferente investiţiilor in capital fix (trimestrial).Totodată, chestionarele lunare conţin şi module specifice în dependenţă de genulprincipal de activitate al întreprinderii, privind: activitatea industrială; activitatea în construcţii.Este de menţionat faptul că la etapa elaborării conţinutului chestionarelor au fostantrenaţi specialişti în domeniul Standardelor Naţionale de Contabilitate. Astfel,chestionarele, precum şi indicaţiile metodologice privind completarea acestora, au fostelaborate, reieşind din particularităţile evidenţei contabile naţionale şi actelor normative învigoare, pentru a facilita înţelegerea şi completarea chestionarelor de către respondenţi.Testarea instrumentarului statistic pentru cercetarea integrată, realizată înîntreprinderile care practică diverse genuri de activitate (din industria prelucrătoare,construcţii, comerţ cu amănuntul şi cu ridicata, de prestare a serviciilor de piaţă) şi dediferite dimensiuni (întreprinderi mari, mijlocii şi micro), a permis identificareaproblemelor de completare a chestionarelor şi ajustarea acestora.În rezultatul implementării cercetării nominalizate, sistemul cercetărilor statisticepe termen scurt, începând cu anul 2011, se evidenţiază prin următoarele:Organizarea colectării informaţiei de la unităţile statistice este efectuată pe bazaprincipiului instituţional - în dependenţă de genul principal de activitate al acestora.Entitatea raportoare prezintă doar câte un chestionar statistic lunar şi trimestrial.Cercetarea statistică este realizată pe bază de sondaj şi cuprinde circa 10 mii unităţiraportoare, sau de 2,3 ori mai puţine decât în cea mai extinsă cercetare infraanuală (nr. 5 C)existentă până în anul 2010.Unităţile statistice au fost incluse în cercetarea integrată în modul următor: exhaustiv – întreprinderile cu numărul mediu de salariaţi de 20 persoane şipeste, instituţiile bugetare fiind cercetate exhaustiv indiferent de numărul personalului; pe bază de sondaj – întreprinderile cu numărul mediu de salariaţi de la 4 pânăla 19 persoane; întreprinderile cu numărul de salariaţi de până la 4 persoane nu sunt incluse încercetările statistice pe parcursul anului.Unitatea respondentă este clar definită şi constituie întreprinderea, datele fiindraportate pe total unitate, inclusiv pe subdiviziunile sale structurale (filiale, reprezentanţe,unităţi de producere, magazine proprii etc.). Astfel, sunt evitate situaţii ale dublăriicolectării informaţiei sau subraportării datelor în cazul colectării incomplete a acestora de launităţile locale.Au fost stabilite termene noi, extinse, ce permit prezentarea datelor mai calitativede către entităţi. Ancheta integrată pe termen scurt se prezintă de unităţile respondente înadresa organelor teritoriale de statistică (OTS) lunar - până la data de 15 şi trimestrial -până la data de 25 după perioada de referinţă.Revista Română de Statistică – Supliment Trim IV/2012 323

Cercul de respondenţi pentru fiecare chestionar lunar şi trimestrial este stabilit deoficiul central al BNS, pe baza Registrului Naţional al Unităţilor Statistice. De asemenea,este strict monitorizată situaţia cu privire la statistica raportării, aferente respondenţilorstatistici.Implementarea cercetării a permis armonizarea definiţiilor şi alinierea statisticilorpe termen scurt la cerinţele Uniunii Europene.Astfel, a fost lansată elaborarea noilor statistici, cu periodicitate lunară privind: Cifra de afaceri. Este de remarcat, că întru asigurarea abordării comune,armonizate acest indicator este colectat de la toate unităţile pentru care acesta este relevant(inclusiv pentru întreprinderile agricole, toate unităţile de prestare a serviciilor de piaţănefinanciare); Indicele cifrei de afaceri nominal pentru întreprinderile cu genul principal deactivitate în comerţul cu amănuntul, comerţul cu ridicata, servicii de piaţă; Indicele real al cifrei de afaceri a întreprinderilor în comerţul cu amănuntul; Valoarea comenzilor (contractelor) noi pentru unităţile industriale; Câştigurile salariale şi numărul persoanelor ocupate pe activităţi omogene; Cheltuielile de muncă, etc.În rezultatul implementării CITS, a fost micşorată considerabil presiuneainformaţională asupra unităţilor mici, in special, asupra microîntreprinderilor, precum şicheltuielile aferente raportării din partea businessului. A crescut şi eficienţa activităţiiorganelor de statistică, accentul principal fiind pus pe asigurarea calităţii datelor primare.Lansarea cercetării integrate a dictat şi necesitatea asigurării unei infrastructuritehnice moderne comune. Astfel, cu forţele specialiştilor BNS, a fost creat un subsisteminformaţional performant de introducere, procesare şi stocare a datelor într-o bază de dateunică.Mai multe detalii privind aplicarea metodei prin sondaj la realizarea cercetăriiintegrate pe termen scurt sunt prezentate în continuare.Planul de eşantionare aplicat este cel al sondajului stratificat optim, iar metoda deselecţie utilizată este selecţia simplă aleatoare fără revenire, fiecare unitate din strat avândaceeaşi probabilitate de a fi inclusă în eşantion.Populaţia de referinţă, ce face obiectul cercetării este colectivitatea întreprinderiloractive (unităţile cu valoarea cifrei de afaceri mai mare ca zero sau cu cel puţin un salariat),indiferent de genul de activitate, conform CAEM Rev.1 (cu excepţia secţiunilor P „Serviciiacordate gospodăriilor particulare de către personalul angajat şi activitatea gospodăriilorparticulare privind producerea bunurilor şi serviciilor destinate consumului propriu” şi Q„Activităţi ale organizaţiilor extrateritoriale”), care îşi desfăşoară activitatea pe teritoriul R.Moldova, exclusiv Transnistria. Conţinutul bazei de sondaj corespunde cerinţelor anchetei,neexistând situaţii de sub sau supra acoperire a anumitor activităţi.Unitatea de selecţie este întreprinderea.Variabilele de stratificare sunt reprezentate de: activitatea economică – la nivel de diviziune CAEM Rev.1, clasa de mărime în funcţie de numărul de salariaţi al întreprinderii.Straturile se formează prin intersecţia variabilelor de stratificare, iar în cadrulfiecărui strat metoda de selecţie folosită este selecţia aleatoare simplă fără revenire, fiecareunitate din strat având aceeaşi probabilitate de a fi inclusă în eşantion.324Revista Română de Statistică – Supliment Trim IV/2012

3. Mărimea şi alocarea eşantionuluiVolumul eşantionului pentru anul 2011 a fost de circa 10 mii unităţi. Eşantionulanchetei a asigurat reprezentativitatea datelor la nivelul economiei naţionale (nivel dediviziune CAEM Rev.1 şi clasele de mărime 0 - 9, 10 – 19 şi 20 şi mai mulţi angajaţi).Determinarea volumului eşantionului s-a efectuat reieşind din condiţia ca eroareamaximă admisibilă a estimaţiei indicatorului - cifrei de afaceri să nu depăşească 5%,rezultatele garantându-le cu o probabilitate de 95%, după relaţia:2 2z n 2 22 z xN , (1)unde:z - reprezintă valoarea coeficientului de încredere şi se determină în raport cuprobabilitatea cu care se garantează rezultatele, din tabelele funcţiei Laplace;2i n2 i 2 - variaţia intra grupe ( ni); (2)2 n x z x z 1 x - eroarea limită a mediei de selecţie (n N );(3)N – volumul populaţiei.Alocarea volumului eşantionului pe straturi s-a efectuat conform metodei Neyman,care ia în consideraţie valoarea abaterii standard a cifrei de afaceri din cadrul stratului, cuajutorul relaţiei:niNiinN ki1iunde:in - este volumul eşantionului din stratul i;(4)iNi- populaţia generală din stratul i;σ i – abaterea medie pătratică a cifrei de afaceri din cadrul stratului i;n – volumul eşantionului calculat la pasul precedent.Reieşind din necesitatea asigurării comparabilităţii seriilor de timp, s-a decis capragul de cercetare exhaustivă să fie fixat la 20 de persoane. De asemenea, s-a decis catoate unităţile bugetare să fie cercetate exhaustiv, indiferent de mărimea acestora. La fel,sunt supuse cercetării exhaustive: toate băncile comerciale (grupa 651 conform CAEM Rev.1); toate unităţile din domeniul asigurărilor (diviziunea 66 conform CAEMRev.1); toate unităţile create pe parcursul anului 2010, fondul statutar al cărora esteegal sau depăşeşte suma de 0,5 mil. lei.Revista Română de Statistică – Supliment Trim IV/2012 325

În cazul în care, după formarea straturilor, au fost situaţii în care efectivulpopulaţiei într-o anumită celulă s-a situat sub 10 unităţi, unităţile din cadrul acestor straturi,de asemenea, s-au inclus în mod exhaustiv (pentru 2012 mărimea minimă a eşantionului perstrat a fost de 5 unităţi).Depistarea şi tratarea unităţilor atipicePe lângă unităţile ce satisfac criteriile de exhaustivitate enunţate mai sus, maiexistă o categorie de unităţi cercetate exhaustiv – unităţile atipice. Prin unităţi atipice înliteratura de specialitate se subînţeleg acele unităţi statistice care fac parte dintr-o anumităcolectivitate, dar ale căror caracteristici (una sau mai multe) se deosebesc esenţial de celeale majorităţii unităţilor statistice. Acest fapt conduce la prezenţa unei variabilităţi în cadrulpopulaţiei nejustificat de mare, care la rândul său impune extragerea unui eşantionineficient. Din acest considerent, se recomandă ca aceste unităţi să fie tratate deosebit decelelalte, în scopul evitării obţinerii unor rezultate eronate. În cazul nostru depistareaunităţilor atipice s-a determinat după indicatorul cifra de afaceri la nivelul straturilor.Noţiunea de unitate atipică e o noţiune destul de relativă, astfel că în literatura despecialitate pot fi întâlnite mai multe proceduri de depistare a acestora. În demersul nostrunoi am mers pe două cele mai răspândite metode de depistare a unităţilor atipice şi, anumecu ajutorul regulilor: celor trei sigma şi intervalului interquartilic.Utilizând metoda celor trei sigma (abaterii standard), ca şi unităţi atipice suntconsiderate acele unităţi ale căror cifră de afaceri depăşeşte media cifrei de afaceri, dupăcelule de stratificare, cu +/-3 abateri standard.În cazul de faţă s-a luat clasificarea după diviziune CAEM (2 sau 3 semne) înintersecţie cu 2 grupe de salariaţi 0-9 şi 10-19 şi s-a efectuat standardizarea dupăurmătoarea formulă:zx xis sisxs , (5)unde:z is –variabila z pentru unitatea i din stratul s;x is – valoarea cifrei de afaceri a unităţii i din stratul s;xs- valoarea medie pentru cifra de afaceri din stratul s;σ xs – abaterea standard pentru cifra de afaceri în stratul s.Unităţile a căror scor z is depăşeşte valoarea de +/- 3 sunt considerate atipice şiurmează a fi cercetate exhaustiv.Metoda intervalului interquartilic de depistare a unităţilor atipice (outlier)presupune compararea fiecărei unităţi, după valoarea cifrei de afaceri, cu două valorirezultate din următoarea relaţie:Outlier qOutlier q11.5(q31.5(q q )1 q )33 1(6)unde:q 1 reprezintă quartila I, adică valoarea până la care se situează 25% din efectivul populaţieicercetate;q 3 reprezintă quartila III, adică valoarea până la care se situează 75% din efectivulpopulaţiei cercetate.Localizarea quartilelor se determină după relaţia:326Revista Română de Statistică – Supliment Trim IV/2012

PL p ( N 1)100 , (7)unde: N reprezintă efectivul populaţiei dintr-un anumit strat, iar P ia valoarea 25 pentru q 1şi 75 pentru q 3 .Astfel, toate unităţile ce satisfac condiţiile de mai sus sunt tratate ca şi unităţi atipice, fiindincluse exhaustiv în cercetare.În vederea creşterii gradului de omogenitate a populaţiei supuse cercetării prinsondaj, au fost examinate două variante de determinare a întreprinderilor atipice: După straturi formate doar din diviziunile CAEM; După straturi formate la intersecţia diviziunilor CAEM cu grupele de angajaţi0-9 şi 10-19.În cazul ambelor variante au fost testate două metode: Metoda determinării întreprinderilor atipice cu ajutorul regulii x 3; Metoda determinării întreprinderilor atipice cu ajutorul intervaluluiinterquartilic.În urma analizei efectuate au rezultat următoarele date pe cele 4 variante:Distribuţia populaţiei unităţilor statistice din domeniul economic pe tipuri,în funcţie de varianta abordată şi metoda aplicatăVariante1a 2a 1b 2bTotal populaţie (unităţiactive) 26898 26898 26898 26898Cercul exhaustiv 4086 4086 4086 4086Unităţi atipice 222 252 1547 1458Subpopulaţie prin sondaj 14997 14967 13672 13761Informativ: total populaţie(unităţi active şi inactive) 46203 46203 46203 46203Din analiză se observă că în cazul utilizării metodei celor 3 sigma numărulunităţilor atipice e destul de mic în cazul ambelor variante (222 şi 252), pe când metodaintervalului interquartilic scoate în evidenţă un număr destul de mare de unităţi atipice(1547 şi 1458). Aceasta se explică prin faptul că populaţia supusă cercetării are un gradscăzut de omogenitate şi, în consecinţă, se impune utilizarea unor indicatori robuşti aivarianţei, abaterea interquartilică fiind unul dintre aceştia.4. Extragerea eşantionuluiÎn scopul creşterii eficienţei eşantionului şi evitării includerii în eşantion aunităţilor legale foarte mici (din perspectiva numărului de salariaţi), care, pe lângă faptul căsunt greu de contactat, au o pondere foarte mică în total populaţie, unităţile cu un număr desalariaţi de până la 4 persoane nu au fost incluse în eşantion. Totodată, conform bunelorpractici europene, unităţile statistice rămase în baza de sondaj trebuie să asigure oreprezentativitate a cifrei de afaceri de cel puţin 90% la nivelul fiecărei diviziuni a CAEM(pentru activităţile pentru care este disponibil indicatorul cifra de afaceri).Înainte de extragerea propriu-zisă a eşantionului au fost efectuate câteva simulări,cu scopul de a compara variantele primite şi de a alege varianta optimă. Astfel, acestea auRevista Română de Statistică – Supliment Trim IV/2012 327

fost efectuate în baza variantelor expuse la capitolul „Depistarea şi tratarea valoriloratipice”. În urma acestor simulări s-au primit următoarele rezultate:Tabelul 2. Volumul eşantionului în funcţie de varianta abordată şi metoda aplicatăVarianteSubpopulaţie prin sondaj 1a 2a 1b 2bEşantion 14997 14967 13672 13761Fracţia de sondaj 4587 7932 2759 2992Eşantion + atipice 0.31 0.53 0.20 0.22Eşantion + atipice + exhaustiv 4809 8184 4306 4450Subpopulaţie prin sondaj 8895 12270 8392 8536După cum se observă, cea mai înaltă eficienţă, atât din punct de vedere al fracţieide sondaj, cât şi din punct de vedere al numărului total de unităţi economice supusecercetării, se obţine în cazul variantei 1b, adică atunci când utilizăm în calitate de straturipentru determinarea întreprinderilor atipice doar diviziunile conform CAEM şi aplicămmetoda intervalului interquartilic la depistarea unităţilor atipice. Trebuie remarcat şi faptul,că, în această variantă, s-a obţinut şi cel mai mare număr de unităţi atipice, concluzia ce seimpune e că eliminarea unităţilor atipice duce la omogenizarea populaţiei. În acest caz,numărul unităţilor din domeniul economic ce urmau a fi cercetate lunar în cadrul cercetăriiintegrate pentru 2011 a fost de 8392.5. Inferenţa statistică pentru CITSbwCoeficienţii de extindere de bază, sau ponderea de selecţie (ih ) reprezintă opondere de tip Hortvitz-Thompson şi se calculează ca inversul probabilităţii de selecţie,după relaţia:b 1 1 Nhwih p nih h nhNh , (8)unde:p ih = probabilitatea de selecţie a unităţii i din celula de selecţie h;N h = numărul de unităţi din celula de selecţie h;n h = numărul de unităţi selectate în eşantion din celula de selecţie h.Ajustarea coeficienţilor de extindere la ratele de non-răspuns se efectuează la nivelulfiecărei celule de selecţie, cu ajutorul relaţiei:4 6 7aj b 1 b 1 b nhb nh ch ch chwh wh wh wh wh2 3 4 6 7p mrhh mhnh ch ch ch ch chnh(9)unde:p rh = probabilitatea de răspuns din celula de selecţie h;328Revista Română de Statistică – Supliment Trim IV/2012

n h = numărul de unităţi selectate în eşantion din celula de selecţie h;m h = numărul de unităţi selectate în eşantion din celula de selecţie h care au răspuns laanchetă;lc h- numărul de unităţi din celula de selecţie h care au ataşat starea de răspuns l şil (2,3,4,6,7).Depistarea şi tratarea unităţilor atipice la etapa de inferenţă statisticăDupă ajustarea coeficienţilor de extindere la non-răspunsuri, are loc depistareaunităţilor atipice la etapa de inferenţă statistică. Acest procedeu se recomandă a fi efectuatşi la această etapă pentru a preveni oscilaţiile bruşte ale indicatorilor în cadrul seriilor detimp, datorate dezvoltării rapide a unor unităţi în perioada de referinţă faţă de situaţia dinbaza de sondaj. Valorile atipice se determină după aceeaşi regulă ca şi la etapa deeşantionare, adică utilizând metoda abaterii interquartilice.În funcţie de valorile raportate de întreprindere, de rezultatele analizeicoeficienţilor de variaţie şi marcajelor de valori atipice, coeficientul de extindere final alunităţii se înlocuieşte cu valoarea ”1”.Lansarea cu succes a CITS a permis atingerea obiectivelor propuse de a armonizastatisticile pe termen scurt, relevante pentru ţara noastră, la standardele UE, cu creştereaeficienţei activităţii statistice atât din perspectiva BNS, cât şi a respondenţilor. Datestatistice armonizate, astfel, sunt elaborate şi prezentate cu regularitate utilizatorilor, înconformitate cu prevederile PLSO altă realizare importanţă a CITS a constituit eficientizarea activităţii statistice. Înrezultatul implementării cercetării integrate, sarcina informaţională asupra agenţiloreconomici s-a redus în medie cu ca 2 ori, în special pentru reprezentanţii micului business.Bibliografie selectivă[1]. Anghelache C. Tratat de statistică teoretică şi economică. Bucureşti: EdituraEconomică, 2008[2]. Cara O., Mocanu Iu., Galer L. Abordarea integratoare a statisticii pe termen scurt:experienţa Republicii Moldova. Revista Română de Statistică, 2012, nr. 6, p. 4-19[3]. Cook L. Strategic Planning in Statistical Offices – some Insights from the UKExperience. Statistics in transition, 2003, vol. 6, No 3, p. 353-356.[4]. Cox D.R., Donnelly C.A. Principles of Applied Statistics. Cambridge University Press.Cambridge, 2011[5]. Isaic-Maniu A., Mitruţ C., Voineagu V. Statistica pentru managementul afacerilor,Bucureşti, 1999.[6]. *** Hotărârea Guvernului Republicii Moldova nr. 305 din 14 aprilie 1999 cu privire laConcepţia de reformare a sistemului statistic naţional în anii 1999-2002, MonitorulOficial al Republicii Moldova nr.42-44 din 29.04.1999.Revista Română de Statistică – Supliment Trim IV/2012 329

Model for Social Insurance with Definite Benefitsand Test of ContributionsProfessor Liviu BEGU PhDliviubegu@yahoo.co.ukAcademy of Economic Studies, BucharestProfessor Radu Titus MARINESCU PhDradu_titus_marinescu@yahoo.com“Artifex” University of BucharestAna (CARP) ANTON PhDkarp_ana@yahoo.comLigia PRODAN PhD Studentprodanligia@yahoo.comAcademy of Economic Studies, BucharestAbstractThe evidence of the contribution’s base is realized in a national informationsystem only since April 2001. Previous to this period is the “contest” of certificates whichprove incomes not registered in employment records. This competition depends at the levelof each person on the keeping of records, the “will”former employer to mentionsupplementary incomes, the “skill” of the employer in issuing correct, clear or ambiguouscertificates. “Unclear” certificates generate labor conflicts, and on their interpretation, thefinal result of the beneficiary depends. Accidental factors that generate erroneous pensionsand repeated revision of decisions, or even the establishment of debts on behalf of thepensioners are a real problem of the system. Two or more persons who have the sameannual points, therefore equal pensions, can actually have different salary profiles. Thesum of annual points can result from a wide range of combinations. Te test ofcontributions will place the persons with different salary profiles in the position ofobtaining different pensions. Due to these aspects, in the present paper the authors proposea model supposed to avoid these shortcomings.Key words: social insurance, benefits, contributions, model, pensionsJEL Classification: H55Principiul contributivităţii reprezintă obligaţia de a contribui la Sistemul Public dePensii şi şansa de a primi în viitor o pensie. În înţelesul curent, chiar şi în rândurilespecialiştilor, se consideră că prin contributivitate se apreciază cantitativ contribuţiile.Sistemul actual de pensii nu utilizează testul contribuţiilor, iar punctele stabilite pentrufiecare persoană sunt un concurs de şanse.Demitizarea principiului contributivităţii şi stabilirea beneficiilor după criteriulcontribuţiilor este în opinia noastră o abordare mai corectă.Propunerea constă în modificarea formulei de calcul a pensiei din Sistemul Publicde Pensii astfel:Pensia pentru limită de vârstă şi vechime completă (P lv ) este alcătuită din pensie debază (P b) , supliment la pensie (S p) şi pensie adăugată (P a ) .P lv = P b + S p + P a330Revista Română de Statistică – Supliment Trim IV/2012

Pensia de bază este pensia medie etalon.Pensia medie etalon rezultă dintr-un număr de ani de contribuţie etalon.Suplimentul la pensie rezultă din anii de contribuţie cu o contribuţie mai maredecât contribuţia etalon. Pensia adăugată rezultă din anii de contribuţie cu o contribuţie maimică decât contribuţia etalon. A doua soluţie propusă se referă la modificarea metodei decorelaţie a beneficiilor cu salariile prin metoda corelaţiei beneficiilor cu contribuţiile.În final se va avea în vedere constituirea Fondului contribuţiilor voluntare. Acestfond se constituie din contribuţiile asiguraţilor care-şi completează contribuţia etalon.Intrucât nu sunt contribuţii obligatorii şi nu sunt legate de baza de calcul a contribuţiilor,adică de venitul brut realizat, contribuţiile voluntare se vor îndrepta în mod fictiv înrecipientul contribuţiilor voluntare, care sunt la dispoziţia asiguraţilor.Acest fond este utilizat în două scopuri: pentru ajustarea pensiilor actualilorpensionari, iar diferenţa dintre profitul fondului şi suma alocată ajustărilor reprezintă activnet la dispoziţia asiguraţilor.În acest fel se realizează două funcţii:- funcţia de solidaritate, prin furnizarea fondurilor aduse de generaţiileactuale active spre utilizare de către actualii beneficiari;- funcţia de acumulare a pensiilor viitoare.Posibilitatea de plată anuală a profitului net individual din Fondul contribuţiilorvoluntare către asiguraţi, dar şi contractul contribuţiilor voluntare care se încheie anual ladata completării contribuţiei etalon, transformă Sistemul Public de Pensii într-un sistembazat pe încrederea asiguratului.Pensie de bază din Sistemul Public de Pensii. Condiţia obţinerii pensiei de bazăeste realizarea unui număr de 25 de ani de contribuţii etalon. Numărul de 25 de ani rezultădin calculul dintre Contribuţia etalon la nivelul anului 2010 şi pensia medie estimată pentruaceastă categorie de pensii. Raportul dintre cei doi indicatori este de 18,58, ceea ce arată cădin contribuţii adunate într-o perioadă de 25 de ani se pot plăti pensii de bază 18 ani întregi,ceea ce corespunde speranţei de viaţă la vârsta de pensionare a femeilor, care sunt mailongevive.Pensia de bază este determinată de punctajele medii estimate pe baza metodeinormative actuale şi sunt cele proiectate de autori şi redate în tabelul de mai jos:Revista Română de Statistică – Supliment Trim IV/2012 331

Prin acest model creăm un sistem de pensii anticipativ. Fiecare generaţiecunoaşte nivelul pensiei de bază. Punctajele medii anuale estimate depind de o carierămedie până la data posibilă a implementării modelului. Perioada de contribuţie ulterioarăcare se ia în calculul punctajului mediu anual estimat aduce câte un punct anual la zestreade puncte a profilului mediu.Cum se realizează practic această procedură de acumulare a contribuţiilor?Definim contribuţia etalon suma contribuţiilor aferente punctajului mediu anualestimat care ar fi datorată de un asigurat în fiecare din cei 25 de ani de contribuţii viitoare.Cota contribuţiilor asiguratului este în prezent de 10,5% şi poate fi menţinutăconstantă sau diminuată şi transferată diferenţa în obligaţia de plată a angajatorului.Fie salariul mediu etalon egal cu salariul mediu anual aferent anului 2010. Pentruexpunere teoretică, fie acest salariu egal cu 2000 lei. Contribuţiile etalon sunt de asmeneacunoscute.Cota contribuţiilor este Ct ,, unde este contribuţia angajatorului şi este contribuţia angajatului.În luna ianuarie a fiecărui an, angajatorul comunică salariatului contribuţiilerealizate în anul precedent.Dacă suma contribuţiilor realizate este mai mare decât contribuţia etalon, diferenţapoate fi reportată de asigurat pentru anul următor sau intră în calculul suplimentului lapensie.Dacă suma contribuţiilor realizate este mai mică decât contribuţia etalon, salariatulpoate lua decizia să-şi completeze suma contribuţiilor pentru a-şi înregistra un an decontribuţie etalon necesară stabilirii pensiei de bază. Aceste contribuţii sunt independentede venitul salarial şi sunt voluntare. Fiind o componentă voluntară vor fi stocate fictiv înFondul contribuţiilor voluntare. La sfârşitul fiecărui an, asiguratul este îndreptăţit săprimească o anuitate din investirea sumei de către stat. Anuitatea poate fi retrasă saupăstrată în fond.În cazul în care salariatul nu-şi completează contribuţia etalon, acel an va fi un anfără contribuţie etalon şi va fi luat în calcul la Pensia adăugată.332Revista Română de Statistică – Supliment Trim IV/2012

Contribuţia etalon a salariatului poate fi completată de angajator. Aici este risculca angajatorii să plătească doar salariul minim pe parcursul anului. Angajatorul va puteaplăti doar o sumă forfetară deductibilă fiscal.Contribuţia voluntară poate fi plătită de asigurat prin procente aplicate la salariulbrut realizat. Această contribuţie va fi colectată în fondul contribuţiilor voluntare.Colectarea procentuală prin intermediul angajatorului se recompensează de către stat prinacordarea de facilităţi fiscale angajatorului.Contribuţia voluntară poate fi peste limita contribuţiei etalon, recipientulcontribuţiilor voluntare va înregistra faptul că pentru această parte a contribuţiei îi revinasiguratului recompense sub forma profitului net. Contribuţia voluntară este o sursă definanţare acordată sub formă de împrumut gestionarului.Salariatul cu perioade de şomaj sau în inactivitate temporară de muncă nu va putea săînregistreze în acel an o contribuţie etalon. Rezerva de ani neetalon se diminuează.Posibilitatea completării contribuţiei etalon trebuie permisă asiguratului într-untermen de 5 ani retroactiv. În aceste situaţii contribuţiile restante se vor achita la nivelulcontribuţiei anului în curs şi fără penalităţi.În anii de contribuţie de la sfârşitul carierei, asiguratul se poate afla în douăipostaze: Amână ieşirea la pensie pentru a-şi completa durata standard acontribuţiei etalon (până la 25 de ani)Are deja 25 de ani de contribuţie etalon şi realizează ani suplimentari decontribuţieÎn ambele cazuri persoana are dreptul la pensie.În actuala legislaţie, în cazul în care persoana nu solicită pensionarea într-untermen stabilit prin lege, pensia i se acordă cu data de întâi a lunii următoare depuneriicererii.În opinia noastră neplata pensiei pe o perioadă în care îndeplinea condiţiile depensionare nu este corectă, dreptul la pensie şi plata pensiei nu pot fi condiţionate dedepunerea cererii.În cazul condiţiilor vârstelor reduse de pensionare din condiţii cumulative sauchiar dintr-o singură condiţie procedura este mai puţin cunoscută de nespecialiştii înasigurări sociale şi trebuie evitată pierderea de drepturi de pensie. Se impune elaborarea detabele actuariale precise.Prin sistemul de colectare a contribuţiilor la nivelul Casei Naţionale de PensiiPublice, printr-o procedură de testare a CNP-urilor, asiguraţii care îndeplinesc condiţiile depensionare în anul următor pot fi informaţi şi li se poate evalua anticipat cuantumulpensiei spre informare.În cazul unei proceduri de pensionare amânate, pensionarul îşi ţine spre păstrarecuantumul pensiei la care are dreptul, şi trebuie acordată o bonificaţie.Această bonificaţie nu se acordă încă în Sistemul de Pensii din România.Bonusul care se acordă pentru anii suplimentari de cotizare în prezent nureprezintă un bonus pentru amânarea ieşirii la pensie, ci pentru depăşirea stagiului decotizare.Prima situaţie din cele două expuse, completarea duratei standard a contribuţieietalon, comportă două proceduri: testarea anilor de contribuţie etalon şi includerea anilor în care nu s-a realizatcontribuţia etalon la perioada de calcul a pensiei adăugateRevista Română de Statistică – Supliment Trim IV/2012 333

testarea duratei de cotizare realizată peste durata standard de cotizare şiconversia contribuţiilor aferente pentru calculul suplimentului de pensie.Cea de-a doua situaţie se soluţionează prin aplicarea a două proceduri: testarea duratei de cotizare realizată peste durata standard de cotizare şiconversia contribuţiilor aferente pentru calculul suplimentului de pensie testarea anilor de contribuţie etalon şi includerea anilor suplimentari în care s-a realizat contribuţia etalon la perioada de calcul a suplimentului de pensie.Suplimentul de pensie se calculează pe baza a două componente: contribuţii pestecontribuţia etalon din cei 25 de ani standard cu contribuţii etalon şi contribuţiile din aniisuplimentari de cotizare care sunt mai mari decât contribuţia etalon.Fondul de rezervă şi contribuţii voluntare este garantat de stat şi are un profit cel puţin egalcu rata dobânzii de referinţă. Fie 10% rata de rentabilitate a fondului de rezervă şicontribuţii voluntare şi 3% procentul de ajustare a pensiilor conform scenariului moderat.Profitul fondului nu este supus impozitării.Din profitul fondului se distribuie 3% la ajustarea pensiilor şi 7% la dispoziţiaasiguraţilor.Constituirea acestui fond în Sistemul Public de Pensii va crea o atracţie pentruasiguraţii din acest sistem şi va constitui o reală concurenţă fondurilor de pensii private carevor căuta soluţii de atragere a aderenţilor.Anumite categorii profesionale au stagii standard de cotizare de 20 de ani şi nu potfi obligate, prin natura profesiei lor (balerini, cascadori, etc) să realizeze stagii de cotizaremai mari.În aceste cazuri, prin testul contribuţiilor statul poate subvenţiona diferenţacontribuţiilor.Politica economică nu ar trebui să influenţeze modul de stabilire al pensiilor.Formula de calcul a pensiilor poate conţine criterii sociale stabilite în comun acord cureprezentanţii patronatelor, a persoanelor vârstnice şi a specialiştilor în domeniulasigurărilor.În opinia noastră determinarea suplimentului la pensie poate conţine un coeficientfuncţie de criterii sociale, aşa cum am întâlnit la ţările scandinave.Sistemul informatic actual permite o adaptare rapidă la un nou mod de calcul.Testul contribuţiilor se utilizează pe bazele de date actuale, fiind necesară o completare astructurii bazei de date şi un soft adaptat care este simplu de realizat pentru gestionareabazelor de date.Pentru urmărirea algoritmului propus 1 şi a modului de soluţionare a diferitelorcazuri apar următoarele tipologii:Cazul nr.1: Numărul de ani de contribuţie etalon este mai mare decât duratastandard a contribuţiilor etalon de 25 de ani .Cazul nr.2: Numărul de ani de contribuţie etalon este mai mic decât duratastandard a contribuţiilor etalon de 25 de ani, dar stagiul de cotizare este mai mare decâtstagiul standard de cotizare.Cazul nr.3: Numărul de ani de contribuţie etalon este mai mic decât duratastandard a contribuţiilor etalon de 25 de ani , stagiul standard de cotizare nu este depăşit.1 Anghelache, C., Bugudui, E., Lilea, F.P.C- „Evaluarea legăturilor dintre indicatorii proprietățiiutilizând metoda regresiei multiple”, Scientific Research Themes/Studies Communications at theNational Seminary „Octav Onicescu”, Romanian Statistical Review Trim. 3/2012, pp. 206-212334Revista Română de Statistică – Supliment Trim IV/2012

Cazul nr.4: Numărul de ani de contribuţie etalon completat prin contribuţiivoluntare.La pensia de bază am utilizat valoarea pentru un punct de pensie proporţional cunumărul anilor de contribuţie etalon (/25 ani). Putem utiliza pensia medie estimată. O altădiscuţie este durata contribuţiilor etalon. Există ţări care consideră 20 de ani ca fiind odurată suficientă.Bibliografie selectivă[1]. Anghelache, C., (2008) - „Tratat de statistică teoretică şi economică”, EdituraEconomică, Bucureşti[2]. Anghelache, C., Lilea, F.P.C., (2012) - „Econometrie”, Editura Artifex, BucureştiRevista Română de Statistică – Supliment Trim IV/2012 335

Methods for the Correlation and Valuation ofBenefits in the Social Security SystemSenior Lecturer Virginia CUCU PhDvirginia_cucu@yahoo.comLecturer Florin Paul Costel LILEA PhDflorin.lilea@gmail.com“Artifex” University of BucharestOleg CARA PhD Studentoleg.cara@yahoo.comNational Institute for Statistics of MoldaviaValentin BICHIR PhD StudentAcademy of Economic Studies, BucharestAbstractThe universal pensions schema has mandatory character and is guaranteed by thestate. State is an administrator of the socialsecurity systems and sometimes as financeprovider. In case of financial dis-equilibrium situations of the social insurance balance, thestate grants loans to finance the deficit. As social security is a fundamental right of man,state has the responsibility to correlate benefits and ensure an adequate level of pensions.The correlation of benefits is in the first row linked to the insurable incomes. From thestudy of social security system it can be outlined that at global level, more methods wereshaped to correlate benefits depending on the correlation of benefits with certain factors.Benefits inside the universal social security program are distributed through specificmethods at the level of each country, that adops a certain calculation formula.Key words: pension, social insurance, benefits, indicators, correlation methodJEL Classification: C50, H55, J261. Metode de corelare a beneficiilorÎn cadrul tipurilor de sisteme obligatorii de pensionare s-au conturat mai multemetode de stabilire a beneficiilor, dintre care amintim: beneficii în sumă forfetară; beneficiilegate de câştigurile salariale; metoda testării veniturilor; metoda sumei forfetareuniversale; fondurile Provident; beneficii din pensii ocupaţionale şi beneficii din schemeindividuale de pensii.Metoda beneficiilor în sumă forfetară constă în aceea că pensia se stabileşte ca osumă fixă în funcţie de anii de serviciu sau de rezidenţă în mod independent de veniturilepersoanei. Aceasta este finanţată din contribuţiile angajatorilor şi angajaţilor sau din ambelesurse. De exemplu, beneficii în sumă forfetară corelată cu metoda beneficiilor legate decâştigurile salariale se întâlnesc în: Albania, Cehia, Luxemburg, Norvegia, Rusia, Polonia.Beneficiile în sumă forfetară corelată cu metoda testării veniturilor se repartizează în:Irlanda, Olanda, Cipru.După metoda beneficiilor legate de câştigurile salariale, pensia se stabileşte înfuncţie de veniturile persoanei.336Revista Română de Statistică – Supliment Trim IV/2012

Aceasta este finanţată din contribuţiile angajatorilor şi angajaţilor sau din ambele surse. Deexemplu, beneficii legate de câştigurile salariale se stabilesc în: Andorra, Monaco, SanMarino, Serbia, Spania, Filipine, Algeria, Egipt, Libia, Maroc, Niger, Congo, în general înţările din Africa şi America de Sud. Beneficii legate de câştigurile salariale şi a sumeiforfetare universale se stabilesc în Lichtenstein. Metoda beneficiilor legate de câştigurilesalariale şi metoda conturi individuale se întâlnesc în: Croaţia, România, Slovacia, Ungaria.În plus în Bulgaria se utilizează şi metoda de testare a veniturilor.Utilizând metoda testării veniturilor, pensia se plăteşte persoanelor eligibile, alecăror venituri sau bunuri proprii sau ale familiei, sau în ambele cazuri, acestea se situeazăsub nivelul minim stabilit de guvern. Această pensie este în general finanţată din contribuţiiale statului. Exemple de ţări care utilizează metoda de corelare a beneficiilor cu metodatestării veniturilor şi a sumei forfetare şi a câştigurilor salariale: Estonia, Lituania.Beneficiile corelate prin metoda testării veniturilor şi a câştigurilor salariale: Italia,Letonia, Moldova, Portugalia, Ucraina, Slovenia, Grecia, Italia, Brazilia. Metoda veniturilorşi ratei forfetare universale este utilizată în Canada.În unele ţări se aplică metoda sumei forfetare universale, pensia stabilindu-se însumă fixă funcţie de criteriul rezidenţei şi este independentă de venituri. Această pensieeste în general finanţată din contribuţii ale statului. Spre exemplu, beneficii în sumăforfetară universală corelată cu metoda testării veniturilor se stabilesc în: Danemarca, Rusia(care foloseşte şi testul sumei forfetare).Fondurile Provident prevăd corelarea contribuţiilor angajaţilor şi angajatorilor caresunt colectate în fonduri speciale administrate public. Beneficiile sunt plătite ca sumeforfetare cu dobândă acumulată. Această metodă este caracteristică ţărilor din Asia:Indonezia, India, Singapore, Sri Lanka, Brunei. Ca singură metodă şi schemă de pensii esteutilizată în Kenya, Uganda, Malaiezia, Indonezia, Fiji, Kiribati, Sri Lanka.Prin metoda beneficiilor din pensii ocupaţionale, angajatorii sunt obligaţi prin legesă finanţeze scheme de pensii ocupaţionale. În anumite situaţii pot contribui şi angajaţii lafinanţarea schemei. Beneficiile sunt plătite ca o sumă forfetară, anuităţi sau pensii. Metodabeneficiilor din pensii ocupaţionale este utilizată în Australia (împreună cu testareaveniturilor).Metoda beneficiilor din scheme individuale de pensii prevede că salariaţii şiuneori angajatorii plătesc contribuţii ca procent din suma câştigurilor într-un contindividual administrat public sau privat. Fondul este ales de angajat. Capitalul acumulatîntr-un cont individual este folosit pentru achiziţionarea de anuităţi, pentru a face retrageriprogramate, ori ambele şi poate fi plătit şi ca o sumă forfetară.Metoda este utilizată în: Bulgaria, Croaţia, Estonia, Ungaria, Lituania, Polonia,România, Rusia, Slovenia, Slovacia, Suedia, China, ca metodă introdusă în ultimii ani însistemul de conturi private individuale pentru generaţiile noi.2. Indicatori de evaluare a sistemelor de securitate socialăEvaluarea sistemelor de securitate socială este posibilă prin sistemul de indicatorila nivel naţional şi mondial care vizează aria de acoperire şi nivelul veniturilor asigurate.Un aspect evidenţiat de OIM este acela că includerea ramurilor de securitatesocială în cadrul Sistemului de securitate socială, din punct de vedere istoric, nu este directlegată de nivelul de dezvoltare economică al ţării. Cele mai importante ramuri ale securităţiisociale, pe o scară a evoluţiei istorice începând cu anul 1800, au fost integrate în diferiteetape istorice, în raport de care se poate evalua nivelul dezvoltării umane.Revista Română de Statistică – Supliment Trim IV/2012 337

Pentru extinderea securităţii sociale, Departamentul de Securitate Socială a OIM adezvoltat o platformă globală de partajare a cunoştinţelor prin GESS (Global Extension ofSocial Security), care oferă un mediu internaţional multidisciplinar de cunoştinţe şi serviciide asistenţă tehnică în acest domeniu. În acest cadru sunt selectaţi indicatori statistici pentrucaracterizarea Sistemului de securitate socială şi de apreciere a nivelului securităţii socialeşi a ariei de răspândire.În clasificarea GESS , indicatorii au fost cuprinşi în următoarele grupe: indicatori ai schemelor de beneficii pe termen lung indicatori ai schemelor de beneficii pe termen scurt indicatori ai schemelor de sănătate şi îngrijire medicalăFiecare grupă de indicatori conţine 4 subgrupe după natura indicatorului: aria deacoperire, beneficiile, finanţarea şi administrarea.Beneficiile pe termen lung, din care fac parte şi pensiile, sunt caracterizate prin 81de indicatori, din care 30 de indicatori sunt principali. Gruparea este făcută pe baza unuicriteriu de prioritate.Indicatorii ariei de acoperire sunt: numărul persoanelor asigurate; modificarea(creşterea/ descreşterea) numărului de persoane asigurate; numărul de persoane asiguratecare sunt acoperite conform legii; rata de acoperire a persoanelor asigurate; numărulpersoanelor autoasigurate; modificarea numărului de persoane autoasigurate; numărul depersoane autoasigurate care sunt acoperite conform legii; rata de acoperire a persoanelorautoasigurate; numarul de beneficiari; modificarea (variaţia) numărului de beneficiari;numărul potenţialilor beneficiari; rata de acoperire a numărului de beneficiari; numărul deangajatori care contribuie; numărul de angajatori care în mod legal ar trebui să contribuie;rata de acoperire a numărului de angajatori.338Revista Română de Statistică – Supliment Trim IV/2012

Indicatorii de măsurare a beneficiilor sistemului de pensii aplicat trebuieconsideraţi şi analizaţi împreună.Indicatori consideraţi: beneficiul mediu; creşterea sau descreşterea nivelului mediual beneficiilor; rata de ajustare (inflaţia); rata de ajustare (salarii); rata medie de înlocuire(beneficiu mediu/ salariu mediu); prestaţia medie din decila beneficiarilor -prestaţia medielunară pentru cei care primesc cele mai mici prestaţii (10% din totalul beneficiarilor);modificarea prestaţiei medii; rata prestaţiei medii; pragul sărăciei (prestaţia medie/salariulminim); beneficiul mediu din 10% din cei care primesc cele mai mari beneficii (top decila);modificarea beneficiului mediu (cele mai mari beneficii); rata beneficiului mediu topdecila;rata de înlocuire medie pentru noii beneficiari; modificarea ratei de înlocuire medii;rata beneficiului de înlocuire mediu pentru noii intraţi.3. Corelaţia dintre vârsta standard, rata de dependenţă şi speranţa de viaţăLegătura directă care există între baza demografică şi Sistemul de securitatesocială a făcut ca un indicator statistic frecvent analizat să fie rata de dependenţă exprimatăca raport al numărului de persoane de peste 64 de ani în totalul populaţiei.Vârsta standard de pensionare, aşa cum este prevăzută în Codul european alSecurităţii sociale este de regulă de 65 de ani în cea mai mare parte a ţărilor lumii.În Europa, rata de dependenţă este cea mai mare în Monaco (26,1%), Germania(20,5%), Italia (20,4), iar cea mai mică rată este în Moldova (10,6%), Rusia (12,9%) şiPolonia (13,5%). În România se înregistra o rată de dependenţă de 14,9%, în timp ce rata dedependenţă calculată ca raport între populaţia în vârstă de 0-14 ani şi peste 64 ani în totalulpopulaţiei era de 43% la nivelul anului 2010. Ţările cu cea mai redusă rată de dependenţăsunt ţările din Africa Centrală şi de Nord şi Mexicul şi Haiti din America.14.19.2CanadaHaiti4.44.36.661310.7MexicSUAR.C.Africana3.92.82.64.62.64.4CongoKenyaNigerRata de dependenta22.54.6Africa de Sud13.98.212.922.6ChinaJaponia4.11310.226.1Noua ZeelandaMonacoRusia15.412.917.216.613.520.520.417.81514.918.310.6Marea BritanieGermaniaPortugaliaRomaniaMoldovaCanada Chile Haiti Honduras MexicPeru SUA Argentina R.C.Africana ChadCongo Egipt Kenya Libia NigerUganda Africa de Sud Australia China Hong KongJ i N l N Z l d Si MSursa datelor: SSPTW: The Americas, 2009, SSPTW: Africa, 2009, SSPTW; Asia and thePacific, 2010, SSPTW: Europe, 2010Din punct de vedere al ratei relative de dependenţă, indicatorul statistic aînregistrat valori de 108,8% în Niger, 105,1% în Uganda şi apropiate de 100% în alte ţăriafricane, ceea ce arată că dependenţa economică a categoriilor 0-15 ani şi peste 64 de anieste foarte mare. În ţările cu o speranţă de viaţă relativ redusă, cum este şi cazul României,rata de dependenţă relativă se situează între 40-55%.302520151050Revista Română de Statistică – Supliment Trim IV/2012 339

Indicatorii demografici care intră în formula de calcul al pensiilor este speranţa deviaţă la naştere şi speranţa de viaţă la vârsta de pensionare.Speranta de viata si varstele standard de pensionare1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33959085807570656055504579.276.270.777.774.972.547.2 48.7 47.269.356.352.9 51.880Speranta de viata femeiVarsta pensionare femei72.379.980.167.279.1 78.585.878.561.978.6 77.872.3Speranta de viata barbatiVarsta pensionare barbati77.8 78.6 79.276.1Sursa datelor: SSPTW: The Americas, 2009, SSPTW: Africa, 2009, SSPTW; Asiaand the Pacific, 2010, SSPTW: Europe, 2010În funcţie de diferenţa dintre durata medie de viaţă şi speranţa de viaţă la vârsta depensionare, ţări europene îşi stabilesc formula de calcul a beneficiilor din pensii. În generalcei doi indicatori, vârsta standard de pensionare şi speranţa de viaţă la naştere sunt corelaţiîn mod direct, cu unele excepţii pe care le întâlnim în ţările africane în care se înregistreazăo speranţă de viaţă redusă, cum sunt: Congo (47,2 ani), Chiad (47,2 ani) şi RepublicaAfricană (48,7 ani). Vârstele standard de pensionare în aceste ţări sunt mai mari decâtsperanţa de viaţă. Numărul cel mai mare de ani pe care îl poate trăi o persoană dupăîmplinirea vârstei standard de pensionare este în Monaco (20,8 ani la bărbaţi şi 28,9 ani lafemei), Singapore (23,5 ani ; 28,4 ani ), Marea Britanie (13,8 ani ; 22,3 ani), Chile (11,2ani; 22,3 ani), Japonia (15,1 ani; 22,2 ani), Spania (13,6 ani; 19,7 ani), Australia (15 ani;20,4 ani), Suedia (14,6 ani; 18,6 ani), Canada (14,2 ani; 18,6 ani). Deşi între speranţa deviaţă există diferenţe, vârstele de pensionare sunt în general egale pentru femei şi pentrubărbaţi, sau mai mici cu până la 5 ani pentru femei.Bibliografie selectivă[1]. Anghelache, C., (2008) - „Tratat de statistică teoretică şi economică”, EdituraEconomică, Bucureşti.[2]. Anghelache, C., Lilea, F.P.C., (2012) - „Econometrie”, Editura Artifex, Bucureşti.[3]. Anghelache, G.V., (2004) – „Piaţa de capital. Caracteristici.Evoluţii.Tranziţii”,Editura Economică, pp.20-30.[4]. Anton-Carp, A., Gorbe-Perşa, I., (2009)– „The Influences of the migration phenomenon the Social Security System”, Management in the Worldwide contemporarychallenges, Ed.Niculescu, 2009, ICMIE2009- pag.247-254 .[5]. Clark, G. (2001) – „Requiem for a national ideal? Social solidarity,the crisis of Frenchsocial security and global financial markets”– Environment and Planning A 33(11), pp.2003 – 2024.70.379.667.4340Revista Română de Statistică – Supliment Trim IV/2012

[6]. Gîlcă, C. (2009) - „Codul european al muncii şi securităţii sociale adnotat”, EdituraWolters Kluwer, Bucureşti.[7]. Kutzin, J., Ibraimova, A., Kakab, M., O’Dougherty, S., (2009) - „Bismarck meetsBeveridge on the Silk Road:coordinating funding sources to create a universal healthfinancing system in Kyrgystan”, pp.549.[8]. Moarcăş, Costea, C. (2011) - „Instrumente de coordonare a sistemelor de securitatesocială”, Ed.C.H. Beck.Revista Română de Statistică – Supliment Trim IV/2012 341

Scientific International Approaches on SocialSecurity ModelsProfessor Vergil VOINEAGU PhDvergil.voineagu@insse.roAna (CARP) ANTON PhDkarp_ana@yahoo.comDaniel DUMITRESCU PhD Studentdianadumi@gmail.comDiana Valentina SOARE PhD StudentAcademy of Economic Studies, BucharestAbstractOften, the question arises if everyone receives integrally (minus administrativeexpenses) the contributions and especially if them, let in the care of the administrator to usethem, will be given back at actual values or with a supplementary sum to replace the lack ofusage of sums, that is interest. In the frame of public retirement systems we faced inly thepromision of benefits and each promise can be respected or not. This aspect is guarded bythe World Labor Organization and the Court for Human Rights. Another objective problememphasized in this paper is the maturity state of the system, which occurs after 60-70 years,that is almost after a period equal to the age of a generation. The particularities ofmanifestation of the influence factors of the Social security systems and the freedom tochoose the national model led to the occurrence of new different models, in the phase ofsystem maturity, or to the adaptation of the existing ones.Key words: overlapped generations model, social security, pensions, Stiglitz-YuntheoryJEL Classification: H55Importanţa Sistemului de securitate socială asupra climatului social şi asupraeconomiei sunt suficiente motive pentru ca la nivelul fiecărei ţări, al grupurilor şi alfiecărei persoane să se pună o serie de întrebări la care cercetătorii sunt chemaţi să răspundăînaintea guvernanţilor sau la solicitarea acestora.Din concluziile evoluţiei formelor de asigurare şi din modelul demografic stilizatal lui Chicon rezultă că adaptarea modelului de securitate socială şi în particular almodelului sistemului de pensii se impune periodic. Este de preferat ca schimbărileparametrilor standard ale sistemului de pensii să se producă la intervale mai mari de timpîntrucât în domeniul pensiilor ne raportăm la riscuri acoperite pe termen lung. Chiar dacăîntr-un sistem de pensii parametrii sunt menţinuţi la un nivel constant pe o durată mai lungăde timp, actuarii au rolul de a veghea asupra echilibrului financiar al sistemului.Primele sisteme de securitate socială au avut înrădăcinat principiul solidarităţiisociale şi în mod obiectiv resursele adunate de la generaţiile active au fost suficiente pentrua acoperi riscurile de bătrâneţe, de boală sau deces, precum şi celelalte riscuri pentru care s-au conturat alte ramuri ale securităţii sociale.342Revista Română de Statistică – Supliment Trim IV/2012

Modelele aveau la bază relaţia de echilibru între sursele financiare şi beneficiiledistribuite şi plecau de la principiul că fiecare generaţie tânără contribuie pentru generaţiilevârstnice sau pentru persoanele care nu-şi mai puteau asigura prin muncă veniturilenecesare. Deşi sistemele de pensii erau obligatorii şi sunt încă, siguranţa zilei de mîine nuera pusă la îndoială.„A contribui azi pentru mîine” a devenit o cutumă, deşi în realitate nu seproduceau economisiri decât cu titlu de excepţii şi ne referim aici la constituirea fondurilorpentru pensiile suplimentare. Economiile generaţiilor active erau împrumutate generaţiilorîn vârstă, părinţilor sau bunicilor. Principiul „copiii contribuie pentru părinţi” nu mai areastăzi acelaşi înţeles. Fiecare om în vârstă este convins că el îşi plăteşte pensia. Aceastăafirmaţie este adevărată într-un sistem redistributiv în situaţia fictivă în care ar exista osingură generaţie care ar face economisiri, sau în cazul în care s-au adunat atâtea rezerveîncât contribuţiile sunt păstrate până când fiecare persoană activă îndeplineşte condiţiile deeligibilitate pentru a-şi primi beneficiile din surse proprii.Deşi sunt nuanţe diferite, în opinia noastră ambele sunt adevărate. Pentru caambele afirmaţii să fie adevărate, între copii şi părinţi ar trebui să ne imaginăm Statul, caadministrator al resurselor, care colectează toate contribuţiile într-un recipient. Dacă acestrecipient s-ar umple vreodată, atunci părinţii primesc înapoi contribuţiile lor şi copiii pe alelor. Dar un gestionar, prin fişa postului, este dator să se aprovizioneze şi are voie să„vândă”.Succesul modelului Pinera s-a propagat în multe ţări. Columbia, El Salvador,Mexic, Peru şi Uruguay au adoptat un model similar. În ultimii ani, ţările europene au avutde ales tipul modelului administrat privat pentru a asigura viitorul generaţiilor numeroase.Modelul scandinav a fost şi el exportat, iar scandinavii au sugerat care ar ficondiţiile ca modelul lor să fie adoptat nu doar în America, ci chiar în ţările din zonabaltică.Modelul australian al pensiilor ocupaţionale s-a răspândit şi poate fi o soluţiepentru pensiile complementare în orice ţară cu o economie medie sau dezvoltată.În cazul în care într-o schemă de pensii este definit un model şi se introduce oschemă complementară pentru un număr de generaţii sau pentru noii intraţi în sistem, estenecesară setarea parametrilor.Dificultăţile de finanţare ale sistemelor de securitate socială au generat o altăîntrebare pentru generaţiile active: Cât este suficient să contribui?Generaţiile beneficiare s-au întrebat care este nivelul beneficiilor pe care ar trebuisă le primească. Răspunsuri au dat mulţi autori în studiile lor şi în mod cert nimeni nu poateprimi înapoi contribuţiile plătite.1.Modelul generaţiilor suprapuse (OLG)Teoria economică a lui Irving Fisher a constituit sursă de inspiraţie pentru modelulgeneraţiilor suprapuse (OLG). Modelul OLG este un model economic şi constă într-oreprezentare teoretică simplificată a proceselor economice printr-un set de identităţi şiecuaţii care descriu comportamentul agenţilor şi interacţiunile dintre ele. Agenţiieconomici sunt reprezentaţi de generaţii. Fiecare generaţie trăieşte o perioadă finită, darsuficient de mare pentru ca o parte a perioadei de viaţă să fie trăită simultan cu generaţiaurmătoare.După primul război mondial economistul francez Allais a introdus conceptulmodelului generaţiilor suprapuse. Scopul unui model OLG este identificarea relaţiei dintreeconomisire şi consum, găsirea soluţiilor pentru asigurarea resurselor financiare pentruRevista Română de Statistică – Supliment Trim IV/2012 343

generaţiile care nu mai produc, studierea schimbării comportamentului consumatorilor îndiferite faze ale vieţii lor.Pornind de la teoria consumului, constatăm că într-un model OLG consumatoriisunt persoane care trăiesc n perioade(n ≥ 2) , cel puţin egale cu n. Persoanele născute în nperioade diferite coexistă în orice perioadă determinată de timp t. La sfârşitul perioadelorde timp n, primii consumatori dispar. În cadrul unui model OLG în care persoanelereprezintă generaţii ale populaţiei, prin reproducere va exista o succesiune infinită deconsumatori pentru n perioade. În esenţă pentru că există un număr infinit de agenţi, îneconomie starea de echilibru nu este unică şi nici nu este eficient. Între agenţi există ocompetiţie şi prin urmare există echilibre multiple. Prin criteriul Cass (1972) se testeazăcondiţiile necesare şi suficiente pentru cazul în care alocările competitive nu sunt eficiente.În cazul în care există un dezechilibru între consum şi economisire în defavoareaeconomisirii poate să apară un „planificator social” care să schimbe parametrii consumuluide la o generaţie la alta. Cu toate acestea se poate afirma că nivelul stării de echilibrucorespunde ratei Regulii de aur a economisirii din modelul de creştere economică a luiSolow şi să se poată garanta un echilibru intertemporal. Cercetările empirice pe aceastătemă au arătat că autoeconomisierea nu este o problemă majoră a lumii reale. ModeleleOLG justifică existenţa banilor ca mijloc de schimb. Nivelul acestui transfer sunt ocaracteristică a bunăstării.În literatură acest model al generaţiilor suprapuse (OLG) a fost popularizat decătre Paul Samuelson (1958).Edmund S. Phelps (1961) a introdus conceptul „Regula de aur”. Politicileeconomice pot avea efect asupra ratei de economisire pentru a atinge nivelul Regulii de aurîntr-o stare de echilibru a economiei.Pieter Diamond (1965) a construit un model OLG cu un sector de producţieagregat. Modelele pur teoretice concepute de Allais şi dezvoltate de Samuelson şi Diamondau fost transpuse în practică începând cu anul 1987, când boomul demografic a redeschisinteresul cercetătorilor pentru a crea modele de mari dimensiuni cu mai multe generaţii.Paul Samuelson este un nume de referinţă care a dezvoltat modelul Modiglianipentru determinarea optimului într-un sistem de securitate socială, pe baza teoriei cicluluide viaţă.Gheorghe Oprescu a popularizat Modelul Ando-Modigliani-Brumberg şi arăta căvarianta modelului AMB cu contribuţii la fondul de pensii este o abordare mult mairealistă.Auerbach şi Kotlikoff, preocupaţi de creşterea numerică a generaţiilor născute înanii 1940 şi 1950 au extins modelele anterioare OLG incluzând securitatea socială casegment (sector) al modelului. Auerbach şi Kotlikoff (1987) au folosit 55 de perioade aleciclului de viaţă pentru simularea modelului.Dezvoltarea modelelor OLG a captat atenţia cercetătorilor care au luat în calculevoluţiile demografice şi efectul pe termen lung asupra Sistemului de securitate socială.Concluziile acestora au fost acelea că generaţiile au un comportament spre consum şi spreeconomisire diferit de la o generaţie la alta înainte şi după pensionare. În perioada deînceput a vieţii active, persoanele au o putere de muncă pe care o vând agenţilor economicipentru a avea bunuri sau active. Ei le produc, le dobândesc şi le transmit generaţiilorurmătoare. Pentru generaţiile tinere, economisirea este îndreptată spre consumul dinperioada în care vor fi generaţii vechi. Consumul atunci când vor fi generaţii vechi estefinanţat prin economiile adunate în timp. De la acest aspect a apărut ideea că economiile seacumulează în perioada în care generaţia este tânără şi persoanele fizice trebuie să transmităo parte a veniturilor lor din salarii, deci o parte a puterii lor de muncă şi a rentabilităţii344Revista Română de Statistică – Supliment Trim IV/2012

activelor, astfel încât ei să continue să consume chiar şi atunci când puterea lor de muncănu le mai permite să producă. Aceasta înseamnă că în perioada care începe de la datapensionării, omul consumă o parte a acumulărilor sale.Soluţii numerice ale modelelor OLG au fost popularizate pentru modele de maridimensiuni, cu mai multe generaţii.Politica fiscală a jucat un rol important în analiza securităţii sociale, care a fostmodelată pe ţări cu structuri demografice diferite.Galor (1992) a elaborat un model OLG cu două sectoare care produc bunuri deconsum şi bunuri pentru investiţii.Miles (1999) a construit numeroase modele OLG pentru a analiza implicaţiilemodificărilor în profilele de vârstă ale populaţiilor, ale economiilor şi ale politicilor fiscale.Un studiu realizat de Miles s-a concentrat pe analiza ratei de economisire pe grupe de vârstăîn ţările Canada, Japonia, Germania, Italia, SUA şi Marea Britanie.Pentru fiecare generaţie a fost construită o funcţie de utilitate de forma :Uiwwt T i(1t i ({ u [ c , (1 l )]}1 / )/(1 1 / )) /(1 )ititt iÎn sistemul de ecuaţii s-au adăugat restricţiile bugetare de tipul:itt ( 1 r ) wt it 1yAcumulările totale pentru fiecare generaţie au fost reprezentate prin identitatea:ti t 60itwitNivelul total al producţiei este dat de o funcţie Cobb-Douglas, din care rezultă ratade economisire: 1 Q AK L ,LttK tr tWAi t 60tttitt( L / Ktth)itl1 itÎn modelele OLG s-au introdus sectoare suplimentare de producţie care producbunuri diferite prin angajarea forţei de muncă şi prin utilizarea capitalului. Utilizareamodelelor teoretice de tip OLG şi a modelelor aplicate a fost extinsă în analiza economicăatunci când s-a observat fenomenul îmbătrânirii populaţiei, fenomen accentuat în ţările cueconomii în tranziţie.Modelarea demografică în cadrul modelelor OLG a fost utilizată pentruprevizionarea populaţiei totale şi pe grupe de vârstă. Constatările potrivit cărora ritmuri decreştere mai mari au generaţiile de peste 60 de ani au determinat societatea în ansamblu săgăsească soluţii la problemele de securitate socială, la susţinerea consumului pentrugeneraţiile în vârstă şi la reorientarea modelelor sociale aplicabile. Tranziţia demografică vainfluenţa balanţele viitoare ale sistemului de securitate socială şi repartiţia pe tipuri decheltuieli pentru pensii, asistenţă socială, sănătate şi educaţie.Joel Fried şi Willem Buiter, la începutul anilor ’80 au arătat că fluxurilecomerciale între naţiuni şi fluxurile de capital reprezintă şi o conştientizare a problemei decreştere economică cauzată de influenţa proceselor demografice, iar stimulentele pentrumigraţie sunt o soluţie temporară pentru dezechilibrul demografic din diferitele ţări.itcitpitRevista Română de Statistică – Supliment Trim IV/2012 345

Oded Galor şi Shoukang Lin au adus contribuţii importante la analiza teoretică acomerţului internaţional folosind modele OLG.Tabellini (1991) a utilizat modelul OLG şi a arătat că în cazul a două generaţiisuprapuse intervine o coalizare a primei generaţii.Andrew Mountford şi Cremers Emily au utilizat modele de tip OLG şi audemonstrat că echilibrul comercial dinamic într-un cadru OLG nu implică întotdeaunacâştiguri pentru partenerii comerciali şi bunăstare.Turalay Kenc şi Serdar Sayan (2001) au utilizat rezultatele dintr-un model aplicatOLG în care au studiat comerţul dintr-o ţară cu venituri medii la începutul perioadei detranziţie demografică spre un fenomen de îmbătrânire a populaţiei. Fluxurile comerciale şide capital sunt canale ale ţării cu venituri mai mici prin care importă efectele îmbătrâniriipopulaţiei. Potrivit autorului Sayan Serdar, tranziţia demografică a început mai devreme înţările industriale decât în ţările în curs de dezvoltare, ponderea populaţiei în vârstă a atinscote critice, ceea ce a determinat probleme de gestionare ale sistemului public de pensii.Ponderea scăzută a populaţiei în vârstă de muncă ridică probleme legate de diminuareaofertei de muncă de pe piaţa internă.Consumul diferit al generaţiilor în vârstă faţă de consumul generaţiilor tinere vaavea ca impact schimbarea raportului de economisire din venitul naţional precum şimodificări în structura consumului. Evoluţiile demografice vor afecta modelele de creştereeconomică ale economiilor ţărilor puternic industrializate, dar şi alocarea resurselor demuncă la nivel mondial.“Albirea” naţiunilor mai bogate ca o repercursiune a globalizării este îndetrimentul acestora, dar este un fenomen grav care duce la adâncirea sărăciei în ţările dincare s-a produs exodul populaţiei. Conform ONU, populaţia lumii va ajunge la jumătateasecolului la 9,3 miliarde, din care persoanele cu vârsta mai mare de 60 de ani se va triplapână în anul 2050 (2 miliarde persoane faţă de 629 milioane cât este în prezent), problemecare ar putea fi modelate şi în viitor cu ajutorul acestor tipuri de modele.Serdar Sayan (2003) a dezvoltat aceste modele prin includerea migraţiei înmodelele OLG şi a studiat direcţiile schimburilor de mărfuri şi de forţă de muncă întreTurcia şi Germania. Modelul a plecat de la ipoteza: două ţări care produc două bunuri şi aueconomii închise. A completat modelul prin includerea efectului migraţiei asupraeconomiei şi asupra structurii demografice.Populaţia dintr-o ţară este relativ tânără şi creşte mai repede decât în cealaltă.Sunt utilizate rezultatele obţinute în cadrul scenariilor de simulare alternativă dincadrul unui model dinamic de echilibru general cu generaţii care se suprapun. Profilurilediferite de vârstă sunt prezentate pentru a crea diferenţe salariale în condiţii de autarhie.Costurile de producţie şi preţurile relative sunt diferite, ceea ce oferă bazele pentru iniţiereacomerţului între cele două ţări. Mai mult, dacă este permisă mobilitatea forţei de muncăîntre ţări diferite, diferenţele salariale oferă stimulente pentru lucrători să migreze de la oţară cu rată mare de creştere a populaţiei la cealaltă.Cu alte cuvinte, tranzacţionarea de mărfuri şi de capital în ţările cu mari economiiîn termenii stabiliţi de acestea pot expune aceste ţări mici la efectele de îmbătrânire alepopulaţiei mai devreme decât ar fi fost expuse de propria tranziţie demografică. În plus,scăderea ofertei de muncă şi creşterea salariilor şi a standardelor de viaţă în ţările cupopulaţii ce îmbătrânesc rapid poate să inducă migraţia forţei de muncă din ţările mici cupopulaţii predominant tinere. În timp ce aceasta este deja o problemă importantă pentruSUA şi Canada faţă de Mexic în cadrul NAFTA, sau UE faţă de ţările adiacente, actualatendinţă demografică este probabil să crească presiunile pentru mobilitatea sporită a forţeide muncă la nivel transfrontalier în viitor. Aceasta implică o creştere a ratei de dependenţă346Revista Română de Statistică – Supliment Trim IV/2012

în majoritatea ţărilor OECD care poate deveni în curând un subiect de îngrijorare, chiar şipentru ţările în care creşterea ponderii persoanelor în vârstă nu este încă o problemă demare prioritate pentru economia naţională.Introducerea comerţului în model impune ca şi condiţiile de echilibru în autarhiesă fie modificate astfel încât să se permită exporturile şi importurile. Conform teoremeiHeckscher-Ohlin, ţara care este relativ abundentă în capital (muncă) trebuie să exportebunul a cărui producţie este relativ intensivă în capital (forţă de muncă). În modelul luiSayan, ţara cu rata scăzută de creştere a populaţiei era Germania, care era ţara abundentă încapital.. Având în vedere că liberul schimb va conduce la o egalizare a preţurilor în ambeleABţări, în fiecare perioadă, p p , relaţie valabilă oricare ar fi t. Ecuaţia faceposibilă determinarea preţului global, o dată cettkAtşiBktsunt cunoscute.Permiterea migraţiei impune introducerea unui criteriu de decizie, care estepresupus să se bazeze pe diferenţele de salarizare între ţări. În orice moment de timp, existădouă tipuri de lucrători nou-născuţi în ţară abundentă în forţă de muncă ( B), lucrători ce iauîn considerare migrarea în ţara A, atâta timp cât există salarii suplimentare ce pot ficâştigate (aceştia sunt numiţi lucrători mobili), şi lucrătorii care nu vor considera salariilemai mari ca stimulente destul de puternice încât să migreze.Un lucrător mobil născut în B decide dacă să migreze sau nu uitându-se ladiferenţele de salarizare pe care le consideră el că vor fi menţinute între A şi B în timpulvieţii sale de lucru, din moment ce se presupune a nu avea informaţii despre deciziile demigrare ale colegilor din ţara sa. Deci, chiar dacă migrarea în masă de la ţara B la ţara Aeste obligată să aducă salariile în A către ratele ţării sale, lucrătorul nu are altceva de făcutdecât să-şi bazeze decizia de migrare pe ratele salariale, care ar fi fost observate, în cazulinexistenţei vreunei migraţii între ţări. În aceste condiţii, migraţia de la B la A va continuapână când ratele salariale reale se vor egaliza.Pentru efectuarea simulării experimentelor, ambele ţări au fost considerate a fiînzestrate cu aceeaşi valoare a capitalului iniţial, dar ţara B, ţara cu ritm mare de creştere apopulaţiei, a fost considerată ca având o populaţie iniţială de 5 ori mai mare ca a lui A.Astfel, ţara A a început să fie relativ mai abundentă în capital, respectiv ţara B maiabundentă în forţă de muncă şi a rămas mai bine dotate în acel factor, de vreme ce populaţiasa a crescut mai lent (mai rapid) decât în cealaltă ţară. Ratele de creştere ale populaţiei s-auconsiderat a fi de 16% pentru A şi 80% pentru B.2. Teoria Stiglitz-Yun - Sistem integrat de asigurări socialeStiglitz şi Yun (2002) au propus un sistem de asigurări sociale care integreazăşomajul într-un program de pensie prin intermediul unui cont individual.Acest cont permite lucrătorilor să împrumute pentru veniturile lor salariale înscopul consumului în timpul unui episod de şomaj. Ei identifică factorii care determină ungrad optim de integrare. Sistemul de asigurări sociale este un sistem complet integrat.Atunci când durata de şomaj este foarte scurtă în comparaţie cu perioada deangajare sau de pensionare, sistemul optim presupune o combinaţie exclusivă dedependenţă de pensii de asigurare autofinanţate.Prin Sistemul integrat („UI”) se atenuează acordarea stimulentelor în perioada decăutare a unui job şi se evită riscul lucrătărilor care se confruntă cu şocul şomajului.Revista Română de Statistică – Supliment Trim IV/2012 347

Autorii susţin integrarea în comun a mai multor programe de asigurări sociale, înfuncţie de riscurile acoperite, cu un program de pensie, prin intermediul unui contindividual.Criza din Asia de Est a adus acasă o mare parte din lumea în curs de dezvoltare.Pentru a fi siguri de soluţia sistemului, există stimulente cu efecte adverse, efectelehazardului moral, în toate întreprinderile cu programe de asigurare.În cazul în care nu ar exista o asigurare pentru şomaj, „vraja” tipică a şomajului arface ca duratele de şomaj să fie mult mai scurte.Stiglitz a arătat că pentru un individ cu trei perioade de şomaj pe parcursul vieţiiactive care ar fi nevoit să împrumute venituri viitoare în cadrul acestor programe deasigurare, într-o perioadă de activitate de 45 ani ar pierde probabil 4% din venitul săupentru riscul de viaţă .Veniturile pentru pensionare şi cele pentru securitate socială fiind limitate ar faceca inidivizii să se împrumute mai puţin faţă de veniturile lor viitoare. S-ar rezolva astfel oproblemă care se referă la tendinţa persoanelor de a nu economisi suficient pentrupensionarea pentru limită de vârstă. Stiglitz foloseşte sintagma de afinitate „bail-out”, carear însemna cauţiunea sistemului public de pensii pentru toate tipurile de prestaţii sociale.Sistemul integrat Şomaj-Pensii are sens în cadrul sistemului bazat pe conturiindividuale. În astfel de programe, beneficiile sunt legate de contribuţii prin formulesimple, iar în forma cea mai simplă se face ipoteza că nu există nici o redistribuire.Programele de asigurare UI sunt asemănătoare programelor de pensii cu contribuţiidefinite. O parte din contribuţii pot fi folosite pentru asigurarea împotriva riscului deinflaţie şi a riscului de variaţie a ratei dobânzii, iar pentru acoperirea acestor riscuri s-arpercepe un preţ.În cadrul sistemului integrat UI printr-un cont individual, o persoană care esteşomer poate obţine veniturile de şomaj din contul său individual. El obţine lichidităţi pentrua-şi menţine nivelul său de trai.Deoarece contribuţiile au caracter obligatoriu şi universal, la începutul perioadeide activitate soldul contului poate fi şi negativ.Faptul că în mod normal riscul este mic, înseamnă că persoana poate suporta acestrisc atunci când este răspândit pe întreaga sa viaţă şi nu există nici o atenuare astimulentelor pentru căutare de locuri de muncă. Când pierderea de la şomaj este suficientde mare este optim de a avea asigurări pentru şomaj, persoana nu ar trebui să suporte costulchiar peste durata lui de viaţă.Persoanele fizice nu trebuie să se bazeze exclusiv pe autoasigurarea de pensiifinanţate în cadrul sistemului integrat UI.Modelul are ca ipoteză că asigurarea de şomaj este finanţată din impozit, dar larezultate identice se ajunge şi într-un program de asigurare obligatoriu administrat privatfinanţat prin contribuţii.Structura beneficiului optim al sistemului integrat UI este combinaţia optimădintre cele două tipuri de prestaţii-fiscale finanţate şi pensie-finanţată.Şomajul este doar unul din multe riscuri cu care persoanele se confruntă. Există şialte riscuri, precum riscurile de invaliditate şi de sănătate, care pot fi integrate în acelaşimod.Ideea de integrare poate fi aplicată la fiecare dintre aceste riscuri şi poate fi luatîn considerare un program integrat de asigurări de viaţă.Fondurile Provident din Malaezia şi Singapore furnizează astfel de prototipuri deprograme integrate. Problema este că în timp ce pierderile de la oricare dintre aceste riscuripot fi mici, există o şansă individuală când persoanele pot experimenta toate aceste348Revista Română de Statistică – Supliment Trim IV/2012

pierderi. În aceste cazuri, fondurile disponibile ale unei persoane în momentul depensionare pot fi reduse la un nivel inacceptabil de scăzut.Când Guvernul trebuie să ofere o asigurare pe durata de viaţă pentru a acopeririscuri neprevăzute pentru astfel de cazuri, conturile individuale ar oferi un nivelinacceptabil de scăzut de pensii, iar efectul negativ ar descuraja crearea unui astfel desistem.Aceste consideraţii ar putea părea că diminuează relevanţa integrării comune asubsistemelor securităţii sociale.Sistemul integrat permite ca o anumită sumă de economii realizate de o persoanăsă fie utilizate pentru prestaţii în scopul acoperirii tuturor tipurilor de risc.Stiglitz arăta că tendinţa generală este pentru existenţa programelor separate caresă acopere fiecare risc, deoarece riscurile nu sunt perfect corelate şi apoi să existe acţiunipentru integrarea programelor de asigurări sociale cu programele de pensii. Acţiunile deintegrare şi de corelare ale programelor separate în raport de programele de pensii aucosturi mai mari şi necesită eforturi considerabile.Modelul de bază pentru un sistem integrat de tip UI constă în caracterizareastructurii optime a beneficiului şi ilustrarea modului în care optimul variază în funcţie dedimensiunea relativă a riscului de şomaj şi de alţi parametri.Să presupunem că există un program public de pensii la care un lucrător individualeste mandatat să contribuie cu o anumită parte a veniturilor sale. Deşi nu contează dacăprogramul de pensii este o cu contribuţii definite sau de tipul beneficii definite, sepresupune pentru simplitate că pensia unei persoane este determinată pur şi simplu decontribuţiile sale. În plus, faţă de economiile obligatorii, o persoană poate aveaeconomisirile private voluntare pentru pensie sau pentru a acoperi riscul de şomaj în viitor.În cadrul sistemului integrat UI, ajutorul de şomaj provine din două surse:dintr-un program de şomaj formal, finanţat printr-o taxă de asigurări de şomaj,din economiile din trecut şi din pensiile viitoare. În cazul în care perioada de şomajeste suficient de mică şi / sau nivelul mandatat de economii este destul de mare, precum şiîn ipoteza că persoana fizică are voie să împrumute cât vrea din contul său individual, nu arexista economii suplimentare de precauţie pentru a acoperi riscul de şomaj. Persoana areconomisi numai pentru pensii.Obiectivul principal al sistemului integrat de tip UI este de a asigura consumuleficient şi uniform de resurse financiare pe durata de viaţă. Dacă în perioada de şomaj,persoana caută imediat un loc de muncă, costurile sunt reutilizate imediat după şoculşomajului.Costul de căutare este o variabilă aleatoare, care are o distribuţie F(e). Există unprag de căutare, un cost „e” astfel încât persoana alege să caute un loc de muncă sau nu.Problema este abordată în mai multe etape.O ipoteză este aceea că Guvernul ar putea controla perfect consumul la fiecaredată în fiecare stat şi circumstanţă (situaţie care există dacă persoana se confruntă sau nu cuun şoc de şomaj), iar alta ar fi aceea că perioada de căutare a unui loc de muncă nu poate ficontrolată de Guvern.În cazul în care Guvernul nu poate controla direct dacă persoanele fizice caută unjob, se presupune că Guvernul ştie însă că deciziile de căutare vor depinde de beneficiileoferite.Presupunând că C este consumul efortului de căutare, rezultă că suma consumuluiaşteptat pe parcursul unei vieţi ar trebui să fie egală cu veniturile estimate salariale pedurata de viaţă de câştigat. Acest lucru poate fi, de asemenea, interpretat ca o constrângerebazată pe legea numerelor mariRevista Română de Statistică – Supliment Trim IV/2012 349

Fie consumul din perioada t consumul unei persoane de căutarea unui loc demuncă.În a doua perioadă există două tipuri diferite de stări posibile, iar funcţiile deutilitate au reprezentarea din relaţia (1):M N 2 t 2'V ( C1,Cn , t, Cu , t, q ) U ( C1) (1 q (1 F ( e ))) U ( Cn , t) q(1 F ( e'))M Nt 2 2e,( e )U ( Cu t) q edF0Restricţiile sunt de tipul (2):M N 2C1 (1 q (1 F ( e ' )) Cn , t q (1 F ( e ' ))C^t 2( M 2 q (1 F ( e ' ))Cea mai bună soluţie este (FB-1):^^^^1 Cn , t Cu , t C,C^M M Cea de-a doua soluţie poate fi:^' ( C ) w2 2 w^qw ,NM N 2 Ct 2e UCea mai bună soluţie a funcţiei de utilitate este (Fb-3):^^^V ( M 2 N ) U ( C ) e edF0Întrucât Guvernul nu poate controla cazurile individuale în totalitate, a douasoluţie optimă este (SB-3) rezultată din relaţia (3):e ' e*CCCM Nt 2 2U( CnM N 2, t) U ( Cu , t)t 2* ( M N 1){ U ( C ) U (Pentru fiecare perioadă soluţiile sunt: w ( 1 s1 ) w (1 s ), t 2 , , M 21T*nC Mn , tn( M 1) sn s1n , t w, t M 3, , M N Nw ( r )C u , 2 RCu , t w (1 su), t 3, , M 2( Msu s1 RCu , t w, t M 3, , M N 2NFuncţia de utilitate V(.) are ca optim soluţia din problema de maximizare, cu setulde restricţii individuale şi cu restricţiile bugetare.Max V (.) U ( w s1w Tw ) (1 q ) I ( M , N , s1) s1, r , Te*qJ( r,M,Ne*0)}, s1) q edF ( e ) I ( M , N , s1) J ( r , M , N , s1)2u , t350Revista Română de Statistică – Supliment Trim IV/2012

_T q r ;*q q (1F ( e ))*( M 1) sn s1I ( M , N , s1 ) Max ( M 1) U (( 1 sn) w ) NU {w }s nN*Msn s1 RJ ( r , M , N , s1 ) Max U (( r R ) w) MU ((1 sn) w) NU {w}sn , RNIdeea de integrare poate fi aplicată la alte forme de asigurări sociale decât UI, cumar fi sănătatea şi asigurarea de invaliditate, care acoperă diversele şocuri ale unei persoanecare ar putea să se confrunte în viaţa sa.Ne putem gândi apoi la un sistem comun de integrare cuprinzător careintegrează mai multe programe de asigurări sociale cu un program de pensie prinintermediul conturilor individuale. Acest sistem integrat de asigurare este pe toată durata deviaţă.Dacă persoanele au doar câteva şocuri dintre cele expuse la aceste riscuri, sumaveniturilor corespunzătoare pierderii este mică în comparaţie cu economiile lor pentrupensii, iar argumentul anterior pentru integrare ar trebui să se aplice în continuare.Să presupunem, totuşi, că o persoană are multe de şocuri ale acestor riscuri şi arrecurge masiv la împrumutul de economii pentru pensii. Consumul resurselor depensionare ar scădea sub nivelul acceptabil şi nu ar exista un plan de salvareguvernamental. Încă de la începutul vieţii o persoană nu ştie ce-l aşteaptă în viitor.Având în vedere că există o posibilitate asociată cu un caz multirisc, autorii auexaminat şi relevanţa integrării în comun a asigurărilor sociale cu programele de pensii.Înainte de a aduce mai multe argumente să observăm că există un punct de vedere calitativîn abordarea acestei probleme.Răspunsul la aceste preocupări este că gradul de integrare, de împrumut împotrivaveniturilor din pensii în viitor, poate fi dependent de stat. Într-adevăr, valoarea taxei definanţare a asigurărilor depinde de experienţele cumulate de persoane.O persoană care nu are nici o experienţă de şomaj în viaţă va acumula resurselepentru riscul de sănătate redusă şi pentru riscurile de invaliditate care s-ar putea producemai târziu în viaţa sa.În general, sistemul integrat de asigurare de viaţă este format din mai multeprograme de asigurări sociale integrate cu programul de pensii publice, oferind uneipersoane care se confruntă cu un şoc special un avantaj fiscal-finanţat şi de împrumut dinpensii finanţate.Ca şi în sistemele integrate UI, beneficiul pentru un anumit şoc ar depinde nunumai de riscul advers dar şi de caracterul stimulativ al unui individ, de interacţiunile şistimulii parametrilor care afectează modelul consumului.Un factor important care determină compoziţia beneficiului şi magnitudinea deîmprumut de pensii-finanţate unei asigurări sociale integrate este cantitatea de economii depensii, care este de aşteptat să fie disponibilă la momentul de pensionare.Dacă o persoană în cadrul unui şoc se aşteaptă să aibă o cantitate relativ mare deeconomii pentru pensii la data pensionării, el ar fi oferit o compoziţie a beneficiuluiconstând din împrumuturi mari şi un beneficiu mic fiscal-finanţat.Revista Română de Statistică – Supliment Trim IV/2012 351

Există câteva motive pentru relaţia pozitivă între pensie-finanţată oferită de unîmprumut de asigurări sociale integrat pentru o persoană şi economiile preconizate pentrupensii în momentul unui şoc.În primul rând, suma mai mare a economiilor de pensii pentru o persoană implicăfaptul că împrumutul este necesar mai mult pentru consum intertemporal pentruuniformizarea efectelor şocului. În al doilea rând, economiile mai mici pentru pensiileaşteptate pentru o persoană implică o probabilitate mai mare pentru ca Guvernul să oferegaranţii pentru a susţine un anumit nivel minim de consum de pensionare.Măsura de îmbunătăţire a bunăstării printr-o asigurare pe durata de viaţă integratăar depinde de corelaţia dintre riscuri. Când toate riscurile sunt perfect corelate, nu existănici un avantaj de partajare a unui fond comun de economii, şi prin urmare nici un avantajîn integrare. Excepţia o reprezintă cazul în care riscurile sunt perfect corelate pozitiv.Sistemul de asigurări de viaţă integrat va aduce mereu mai multă bunăstare.Eşecul de pe pieţele de asigurări de a oferi asigurări adecvate împotriva anumitorriscuri a fost mult timp recunoscut. Acest lucru, combinat cu faptul că normele sociale nupermit persoanelor fizice aflate la bătrâneţe să aibă venituri insuficiente, oferă o justificarepentru un sistem de pensii obligatoriu.Acest model a oferit argumente pentru un avantaj comparativ cu programulobligatoriu de pensionare. Sistemul integrat permite utilizarea veniturilor salariale viitoareîntr-un mod care nu este altfel posibil, permiţând astfel persoanelor fizice să se autoasigureîmpotriva unei varietăţi de riscuri. Posibilitatea de autoasigurare de pensii finanţate nuelimină necesitatea unor asigurări fiscal-finanţate, cu excepţia cazului unor circumstanţeextreme. Stiglitz&Yun au identificat factorii de care depinde nivelul optim de pensiifinanţate. Analiza a fost în concordanţă cu sugestia de introducere a sistemului de pensiiauto-finanţate. Atunci când există riscuri multiple (inclusiv riscul de crize multiple deşomaj), recurgerea la pensii de asigurări auto-finanţate este de dorit, în general, cu excepţiacazului în care riscurile sunt perfect corelate. Sistemul de asigurări de viaţă integrat,întotdeauna poate genera un câştig de bunăstare care să permită crearea unui fond comun deeconomii pentru pensii ce ar putea să fie utilizat la finanţarea beneficiilor pentru cei care seconfruntă cu diverse şocuri.Principiul general natural conduce la sugestia unui sistem complet integrat deasigurare de viaţă prin intermediul unui cont comun individual, o extindere a Fondului352Revista Română de Statistică – Supliment Trim IV/2012

Provident din Singapore şi Malaysia 22 în cazul în care riscuri majore, inclusivdizabilităţile şi sănătatea sunt integrate cu programul public de pensii.Schema Sistemului Integrat Şomaj-Asigurări Stiglitz-YunPerioada 1ŞoculşomajuluiŞomaj Efortul decăutarePerioada 2Perioadele(3-(M+2))Perioadele((M+2)-(M+2+N))Lucrător/Şomer Şomaj PensionarSchema Sistemului Integrat şomaj-asigurări sociale evidenţiază funcţiile deutilitate în diferitele perioade ale vieţii unei persoane şi faptul că pe durata de viaţă fiecarese poate confrunta atât cu riscuri de a nu avea venituri insuficiente, cât şi modalitatea încare perioada efortului de căutare poate fi susţinută financiar din plăţi viitoare.Bibliografie selectivă[1]. Anghelache, C., (2008) - „Tratat de statistică teoretică şi economică”, EdituraEconomică, Bucureşti[2]. Auerbach, Alan J., Kotlikoff, Laurence J. (1987) - “Dynamic Fiscal Policy”, NewYork: Cambridge University Press.[3]. Buiter, J., Willem H., (1981) – „Time Preference and International Lending andBorrowing in an Overlapping-Generations Model”, Journal of Political Economy 89(4), pp. 769–797.[4]. Cass, D., (1972) - „On capital overaccumulation in the aggregative neoclassical modelof economic growth: a complete characterization”, Journal of Economic Theory,pp:200-223[5]. Diamond, P. , (1965) - „National Debt in a Neoclassical Growth Model", AmericanEconomic Review 55, pp.1126-1150[6]. Fisher, I. (1930) – „The Theory of Interest”[7]. Galor, O. , (1992) - „A Two-Sector Overlapping-Generations Model: A GlobalCharacterization of the Dynamical System", Econometrica 60, pp.1351-1386[8]. Garman, E. T. , Forgue R.E. (2009) – „Personal Finance”, 10th Edition, CengageLearning, 2009[9]. Ghinăraru, C., Voineagu, V., Panduru, F. (2007) – „Sistemul de indicatori ai protecţieisociale din România”, Supliment al Revistei Române de statistică Nr.12/ 2007,pp.221-226[10]. Oprescu, Gh. (2010) – „Macroeconomie avansată”, Editura ASE, Bucureşti,pp.55-60[11]. Phelps, Edmund S. (1961) - „"The Golden Rule of Capital Accumulation",American Economic Review 51, pp. 638–643[12]. Samuelson, P. (1975) - „Optimum Social Security in a Life-Cycle Growth Model”,International Economic Review, vol.16, no.3, pp.539-544(http://jstor.org/stable/2425994)[13]. Stiglitz, J., , Yun, J., (2002) – „Integration of Unemployment Insurance withRetirement Insurance”, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in NBER WorkingPapers, 2002Revista Română de Statistică – Supliment Trim IV/2012 353

Possibilities to Improve the Quality ofAccommodation and Eco-Tourism Servicesthrought the Online Software of the Housing UnitsAssistant Alina GHEORGHE PhD Studentalina.gheorghe87@yahoo.com“Artifex” University of BucharestAbstractThe problem of eco-tourism services represent an actual topic for specialists inRomania or abroad, due to excessive modernization, because natural traditions and valuesof the area with tourism potential were forgotten. In this paper, I shall present anacquisition modality for accommodation services which comes to suppor the customer andwill lead to improvements in the field of accommodation services offered by companiesengaged in this field.Key words: accommodation service, licitatie on-line, client, eco-tourism, quality.JEL Classification: C88Serviciul de ecoturism reprezintă o activitate sau o serie de activităţi, mai mult saumai puţin tangibile, care iau naştere în urma interacţiunilor dintre client şi prestatorul deservicii, şi/sau resursele fizice, bunurile sau sistemele acestuia care sunt furnizate ca soluţiila problemele clienţilor.(Ch. Grőnroos).Interesul crescut la nivel mondial pentru acest gen de activitate îl recomandă cafiind o activitate de viitor pentru că un numar tot mai mare de turişti se orientează sprepracticarea ecoturismului şi doresc să se implice în acţiuni de conservare a naturii , deapreciere şi promovare a modului de viaţă tradiţional, a obiceiurilor şi tradiţiilor localevaloroase.Dezvoltarea durabilă in acest domeniu consta intr-un proces de transformare încare exploatarea resurselor, direcţia investiţiilor, orientarea tehnicilor şi schimbărileinstituţionale se desfăşoară în mod armonios(Nistoreanu P.). Calitatea maximă a serviciilorde ecoturism este reprezentata de expresia nevoii de îmbunătăţire continuă în patrudomenii: dezvoltarea profesională şi personală, relaţiile interpersonale, eficacitateamanagerială regasita la conducerea entitatii prestatoare de servicii de ecoturism şiproductivitatea acesteia(Edwards Deming, Stephen R.Covey-2006). Cheia pentuîmbunătăţirea serviciilor de ecoturism este licitaţia on-line.Licitaţia on-line este un termen utilizat în general pentru a nominaliza site-urilecare permit, atât persoanelor fizice, cât şi celor juridice, vânzarea unui număr mare debunuri prin folosirea mai multor metode, inclusiv licitaţia. Aceste site-uri nu indeplinescfuncţiile unui organizator de licitaţii, iar obligaţiile şi drepturile legale din acest aspect nu lise solicită şi aplică. Numărul licitaţiilor on-line este în creştere continuă în ultimul timp, iardacă se poate realiza licitaţia de bunuri, totodata poate exista şi licitaţia de servicii decazare, ghidaj, transport etc.354Revista Română de Statistică – Supliment Trim IV/2012

Scurtă descriere a soft-ului de licitaţie a serviciilor de cazare destinat unităţilor decazare din judeţul Sălaj.Prin conceptul de prestator de servicii de cazare, ne referim la pensiuni, moteluri,hoteluri, bungalouri sau particulari care pun la dispoziţie servicii de cazare cu sau fără meseincluse.Prin noţiunea de client, facem referire la consumatorul serviciilor de cazare,beneficiarul serviciilor de cazare oferite de cel mai sus menţionat.Licitaţia on-line vine atât în sprijinul clienţilor, cât şi în sprijinul prestatorilor deservicii(unităţi de cazare), în special în sprijinul „celor mici”. În ţările dezvoltate, licitaţiaon-line pentru achizitionarea de bunuri şi servicii funcţionează la parametrii maximi. ÎnRomânia această procedură este „la început”.Dacă un prestator de servicii(unitate de cazare) mai mare are posibilitatea să-şifacă publicitate cu sume de bani pe care le are la dispoziţie, unul mai mic, deşi nu arecapacitatea de a-şi face cunoscută prezenţa pe piaţă printr-o publicitate repetată, are aceleaşişanse de a atrage un client dacă oferă un pachet de servicii care să-i fie convenabilclientului(turistului). .În domeniul serviciilor ecoturistice, existenţa unui program de licitaţie pentruserviciile de cazare poate fi “un plus”, atât pentru unităţile de cazare, cât şi pentru turistulcare beneficiază de ele.De asemenea, o unitate de cazare poate să culeagă informaţii (număr de turiştiatraşi vs. număr de turişti pierduţi), să “ inveţe” să-şi vândă serviciile prin implementareade alte pachete în serviciile oferite (ex: internet, excursii în zonă, saună, all inclusive, etc)sau îmbunătăţirea calităţii serviciilor oferite.Dacă un client este mulţumit, acesta nu va ezita să te recomande şi să revină ori decâte ori este disponibil. Acest lucru presupune costuri mai mici de publicitate suportate deprestatorul de servicii de cazare pentru acelaşi număr de clienţi.Principiul de funcţionare al softului de licitaţie on-line destinat judeţului SălajUn client îşi anunţă disponibilitatea pentru o anumită perioadă (lanseaza o cerere),iar unităţile de cazare îşi prezintă ofertele şi licitează pentru cererea depusă. În final,potenţialul client studiază propunerile unităţilor de cazare şi alege varianta care sepotriveşte cel mai bine nevoilor şi posibilităţilor sale.Contribuţia mea personală în domeniul serviciilor de cazare va fi crearea soft-uluide licitaţie on-line destinat pensiunilor şi hotelurilor existente în judeţul Sălaj sub formaunui website, în care unităţile de cazare din acest judeţ îşi expun ofertele on-line în funcţiede cererea clientului.Aplicaţia va putea fi accesată on-line, cu ajutorul computerului sau al telefonuluimobil. Voi realiza soft-ul în colaborare cu un specialist în domeniul informatic.Acesta va fi pus la dispoziţia unităţilor de cazare din judeţul Sălaj în anul 2013,urmând ca apoi să monitorizez şi să evaluez posibilele rezultate obţinute de unităţile decazare pentru a observa dacă există o evoluţie în activitatea economică a entităţilor decazare din Sălaj şi în îmbunătăţirea calităţii serviciilor oferite.Consider că această aplicaţie va conduce la creşterea gradului de ocupare aunităţilor de cazare, creşterea profitului acestora, extinderea numărului de locuri de cazareşi va aduce îmbunătăţiri ale calităţii serviciilor de cazare oferite de acestea, serviciilor dealimentaţie, de transport, inclusiv serviciilor de ghidaj.Revista Română de Statistică – Supliment Trim IV/2012 355

Bibliografie selectivă[1]. Puiu Nistoreanu, „Management în turism – servicii”, Note de curs, 2010.[2]. Puiu Nistoreanu,„Ecoturism şi turism rural”, Ediţia a III-a, Ed ASE,2006.[3]. Stephen R Covey, “Etica liderului eficient sau conducerea bazată pe principii”, EdAllfa, 2006.[4]. The European Ecotourism Labelling Standard- EETLS, EcoDestinet, A NETWORKDEVELOPING A EUROPEAN QUALLITY LABEL FOR ECOTOURISMDESTINATIONS, Education and Culture Lifelong Learning programme Leonardo DaVinci, Athenne, 2009.[5]. *** Strategia naţională de dezvoltare a ecoturismului în România, faza I – Experienţaecoturistică la nivel naţional şi internaţional, Institutul Naţional de Cercetare-Dezvoltare în Turism, Bucureşti 2009.[6]. *** www.eccromania.ro-licitatii on-line.[7]. *** www.licitatia.ro.356Revista Română de Statistică – Supliment Trim IV/2012

Retirement Profile of Future GenerationsAna (CARP) ANTON PhDkarp_ana@yahoo.comAbstractThe profile of future pensioner is built on the foundation of present employee’sprofile. Today’s employee from active generations is the future pensioner of tomorrow. Thereduced levels of pensions determine us to critically examine the actual retirement model. Ifthe future would be known by pensioners and present employees, form the viewpoint ofeconomic possibilities, certainly a structural change would be sought for. The economicdependence of pensioners on employees is only during the period of pension adjustments,updates.Key words: pensioner, employee, generations, profile, Lee-Carter methodJEL Classification: J261.Profilul pensionarului mediu (pensia medie)Matricea salarială care caracterizează un salariat se construieşte pe bazacâştigurilor salariale şi pe baza vectorului condiţiilor de muncă. Se presupune că salariatulnu a avut perioade de întreruperi şi pe durata ultimilor ani, egală cu durata stagiuluistandard de cotizare din anul în care va ieşi la pensie, salariul brut individual s-a situat lanivelul câştigului salarial mediu al generaţiilor care erau salariate în fiecare din cele nperioade de cotizare.Corelând metoda matematică cu metoda normativă rezultă că pentru estimareaprofilului pensionarului mediu după metoda profilului salariatului mediu este necesarăcompletarea matricei salariale cu matricea condiţiilor de muncă.Fie matricea salarială cu următoarea formă:W1,1W1,2... W1,2W2,1W2,2... W2,12Mk ... ... ...Ws,1Ws,2... Ws,12Matricea condiţiilor de muncă este:C1,1C1,2... C1,12C2,1C2,2... C2,12Ck ... ... ...Cs,1Cs,2... Cs,12(i,j) din fiecare matrice exprimă salariul din anul i şi luna j, respectiv condiţiile (grupele demuncă) din fiecare perioadă.Revista Română de Statistică – Supliment Trim IV/2012 357

Termenii C i,j iau valori întregi din mulţimea 1 ,2,3,4. C ij =1 semnifică grupa I demuncă, C ij =2 semnifică grupa II de muncă, C ij =3 semnifică grupa III de muncă, C ij =4semnifică grupele speciale sau alte condiţii de muncă.Pentru componenta punctajelor adiţionate datorate contribuţiei la pensiasuplimentară utilizăm matricea standard:S1,1S1,2.......... S1,12S2,1S2,2.......... S2,12S k , care este o matrice cu 34 linii şi 12 coloane.... ... ...S34,1S34,2... S34,12Dimensionarea acestei matrici este în funcţie de metoda normativă, care a fost expusă laetapa de calcul nr.2. Valorile lui S i,j pentru o persoană k se preiau automat din matriceastandard S k. Dacă primul an de cotizare este în anul 1967, matricea S ij este egală cu matriceastandard S k.Prin interogare interactivă se introduce anul începerii activităţii:Fie A i, anul începerii activităţii. De exemplu Ai=1970. Se testează A i 1967Abaterea i A i1967indică completarea primelor ilinii cu zero, şi următoarele cu1.Ultima linie are 3 termeni egali cu 1 şi ultimii 9 termeni egali cu zero.Pentru a construi Profilul mediu al salariatului este necesară şi matricea stagiilorde cotizare. Vom face ipoteza că toate persoanele care se pensionează într-un an au stagiiegale de cotizare cu stagiul mediu din anul de pensionare.În formula de calcul al punctajului profilului mediu al pensionarului din anul i,variabile sunt P s şi P g:Pi ( Pa Ps Pg) / SiP a = suma punctajelor anualeP s = punctajul aferent contribuţiei la pensia suplimentarăP s =f( P a, i);Condiţiile de muncă, respectiv grupele de muncă joacă un rol cheie în definireaacestui profil.Modelul propune conturarea profilului mediu al noului pensionar din perioada2011-2030 pe baza a trei variante: Pensionarul a fost salariat şi a realizat întreaga vechime în grupa I de muncă Pensionarul a fost salariat şi a realizat întrega vechime în grupa a II-a demuncă Pensionarul a desfăşurat activitate numai în condiţii normale de muncăCele 3 profile pot crea un profil mediu mai apropiat de cel real.Profilul generaţiilor intrate la pensie în perioada 2011-2030Pe baza metodei componentelor am realizat tabloul generaţiilor suprapuse formatdin 85 de generaţii.În cazul generaţiilor cu drept de pensionare în perioada 2011-2030, tabloulgeneraţiilor a fost realizat prin previzionarea numărului de persoane dintr-o generaţie cuajutorul metodei Lee-Carter, care au elaborat tabele de supravieţuitori în corelaţie cusperanţa de viaţă şi vârsta persoanei la trecerea într-o grupă de vârstă superioară.358Revista Română de Statistică – Supliment Trim IV/2012

Date previzionate apropiate de metoda Lee-Carter ne-a furnizat şi modelul deregresie 1 al fiecărei generaţii, precum şi modelele econometrice ale grupelor de vârstă careau fost deja prezentate.Piramida populatiei in anul 20104500004000003500003000002500002000001500001000005000001 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 52 55 58 61 64 67 70 73 76 79 82 85Piramida populaţiei în anul 2010, Sursa datelor:INSSEGeneraţia 1952 se pensionează în anul 2011 şi continuă să se pensioneze şi în anul2012.În anul 2012 coexistă două generaţii care au acelaşi scop: pensionarea. Fiecaregeneraţie urcă pe scara stilizată a generaţiilor câte o treaptă.În 2014 şi 2018 noile pensii sunt disputate de o singură generaţie.Utilizând metoda de calcul actuarial pe baza modelului matematic descris mai sus,pentru aceste generaţii, am elaborat profilul mediu de pensionare.Prin profil mediu de pensionare înţelegem punctajul mediu anual estimat pentru unpensionar nou intrat în Sistemul Public de Pensii, care îndeplineşte condiţiile cumulative depensionare, vârsta standard şi stagiul standard de cotizare şi a realizat în anul de pensionareaceste condiţii. Ca etalon vom utiliza persoana care a desfăşurat activitate în condiţiinormale de muncă (grupa a III-a de muncă).De la profilul mediu de pensionare pentru condiţii normale de muncă am construitprofilele medii de pensionare în cazul persoanelor care au desfăşurat activitate în grupa I demuncă în baza legislaţiei anterioare, respectiv în condiţii speciale în înţelesul dat de actualalegislaţie a anului 2011.Al treilea profil mediu vizează persoanele care au desfăşurat activitate în condiţiideosebite de muncă sau în grupa a II-a în baza legislaţiei existente până în aprilie 2001.La toate categoriile, punctajele medii anuale estimate scad în viitor, ajungând înanul 2030 la egalitate între categoriile femei şi bărbaţi datorită egalizării stagiilor decotizare începând cu anul 2030.În ceea ce priveşte rezultatele obţinute, o serie de explicaţii utile vor fi prezentateîn continuare.În anul 2010 varsta medie de pensionare pentru femei a fost 58 ani 10 luni, cuprinsă între58 ani 9 luni şi 58 ani 11 luni. Stagiul standard mediu pentru femei a fost de 27 ani 8 luni,1 Anghelache, C., Bugudui, E., Lilea, F.P.C- „Evaluarea legăturilor dintre indicatorii proprietățiiutilizând metoda regresiei multiple”, Scientific Research Themes/Studies Communications at theNational Seminary „Octav Onicescu”, Romanian Statistical Review Trim. 3/2012, pp. 206-212Revista Română de Statistică – Supliment Trim IV/2012 359

cuprins în intervalul 27 ani 6 luni şi 27 ani 10 luni. Generaţia de femei care a avut dreptulsă se pensioneze pentru limită de vârstă a fost generaţia anului 1951. Vom folosiurmătoarea notaţie:Vst58,9;58,11şi Sst27,6;27,11Unde V st = vârsta standard şi S st = stagiul standard de cotizare; Perechea aa,llsemnifică numărul de ani întregi, respectiv numărul de luni. Se face convenţia că în anul depensionare se realizează integral stagiul anual.În anul 2011 se pensionează o parte din generaţia de femei 1952. În fiecare an alperioadei 2011-2020 se pensionează rând pe rând femeile din generaţiile 1952-1959. Înanul 2025 se pensionează femei din generaţiile 1962-1963, iar în anul 2030 se pot pensionafemeile generaţiei 1967.Stagiul mediu standard creşte de la 27 ani 8 luni cât era în anul 2010 la 35 de ani înanul 2030. În figura nr.55 este redată evoluţia vârstei standard şi a stagiului standard decotizare pentru femei.36Evolutia varstei standard si a stagiului standardFemei in perioada 2010-2030643463323062616028592610 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 25 3058Stagiu standardVarsta standardÎn cazul femeilor care au desfăşurat activitate în condiţii normale de muncă,punctajul mediu anual estimat la nivelul anului 2010 este de 1,15088 puncte, iar pensiaaferentă este de 843 lei. Prin calcule actuariale am determinat punctajele medii estimatepentru perioada 2011-2030. Datorită majorării vârstei standard de pensionare, a scăderiiinfluenţei punctajului adiţional datorat contribuţiei la pensia suplimentară punctajele mediiestimate vor scădea de la 1,15088 puncte la 1,07337 puncte în anul 2020, la 1,06147 puncteîn anul 2025 şi la 1,02470 puncte în anul 2030.360Revista Română de Statistică – Supliment Trim IV/2012

3Influenta cresterii stagiului standard asupra punctajului mediu estimatFEMEI in perioada 2010-2030322.4211.110-1-1.4-1.2-0.9-0.6-0.4-0.2-0.00.10.20.40.50-1-2-2-310 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 25 30-3Stagiu standardPunctaj estimat femeiÎn condiţiile în care valoarea punctului de pensie nu se majorează, pensia medieestimată a generaţiilor de femei va scădea.Conform metodei normative, valoarea punctului de pensie se majorează cel puţincu rata medie anuală a inflaţiei din anul precedent.Modelul de regresie lineară ne sugerează dependenţa dintre cei doi indicatoristatistici şi concentrarea creşterii valorii punctului de pensie pe seama acestui factor deinfluenţă în zona de variaţie înte 1% şi 2%, la o variaţie a factorului de influenţă cu 0,5-1% 2 .Celălalt factor de influenţă care este creşterea salariului mediu brut în termenireali, cuprinde deja influenţa factorului inflaţie, astfel că modificarea salariului mediu bruteste în funcţie de dezvoltarea economică. Aceste corelaţii au fost prezentate în cadrulmodelelor de regresie.Punctajele medii anuale estimate au fost utilizate pentru eleborarea a trei scenariiprivitoare la evoluţia pensiilor noilor intraţi în Sistemul de Pensii Public. Datele suntprezentate în tabelul următor:2 Anghelache, G.V., Anghelache, C., Prodan, L., Dumitrescu, D., Soare, D.V. „Elemente teoreticeprivind utilizarea modelului econometric de regresie multifactorială”, Scientific ResearchThemes/Studies Communications at the National Seminary „Octav Onicescu”, Romanian StatisticalReview Trim. 3/2012, pp. 221-231Revista Română de Statistică – Supliment Trim IV/2012 361

Scenariul moderat are în vedere o creştere a valorii punctului de pensie cu 3% dininfluenţa celor doi factori.Valoarea punctului de pensie va creşte de la 732,8 lei în anul 2010 la824,77 în anul 2015, respectiv la 956,14 lei în anul 2020. În anul 2025, conformestimărilor valoarea punctului de pensie va ajunge la 1108.43 lei şi la 1284,97 lei în anul2030. Pensia medie estimată ar urma să crească la 920 lei în anul 2015, la 1026 lei în anul2020, la 1177 lei în anul 2025 şi la 1314 lei în anul 2030. Sub aspectul indicelui de creştereal pensiei, în anul 2015 creşterea pensiei medii estimate ar fi cu 9,12% faţă de anul 2010, cu21,68% în anul 2020 faţă de anul 2010, cu 39,50% în anul 2025 faţă de anul 2010 şi cu56,12% în anul 2030 faţă de anul 2010.Comparând rezultatele obţinute din acest scenariu cu indicii de creştere aicâştigului salarial real în perioada 1990-2009 şi constatând că într-un orizont de 20 de ani,salariile au crescut în termeni reali cu 28,3%, iar cifrele comunicate de BNR ca ţinte aleinflaţiei prevăd o inflaţie relativ stabilă, scenariul de evoluţie a pensiei medii estimate cu3% anual poate fi un scenariu realist, uşor supraevaluat în intervalul 2020-2030.1400Scenariu privind evolutia pensiei medii estimateFEMEI in perioada 2011-20301400130013001200120011001100100010009009008008007007002010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2025 2030Valoarea punctului de pensiePensia medie estimataScenariu moderat de evoluţie a pensiei medii (Femei)Scenariul pesimist are la bază o creştere medie anuală a valorii punctului de pensiecu 2%, având în vedere că în acest orizont de timp contribuţiile în sistemul public de pensii362Revista Română de Statistică – Supliment Trim IV/2012

se vor diminua anual datorită prelevării cotei părţi la fondurile private de pensii, iarcreşterea salariilor încă nu a fost reluată. În această variantă se ia în calcul şi o majorare apensiilor cu 2% în anul 2011. Colectarea contribuţiilor este încă deficitară datorită efectelorcrizei economice asupra întregii economii şi în speţă asupra agenţilor economici şi aîntreprinzătorilor particulari. Luând în considerare strategia europeană în materie deinflaţie, BNR va căuta să reducă nivelul inflaţiei iar în orizontul de 20 de ani, creştereainflaţiei în medie cu 2% este plauzibilă. Luând ca bază de referinţă nivelul pensiei mediiestimate din anul 2010, rezultatele sunt : creşterea pensiei medii estimate în anul 2015 cu7,04%, în anul 2020 cu 13,68%, în anul 2025 cu 24,13%, iar în anul 2030 cu 32,30%,creşteri raportate la anul 2010 ca an de bază.Valoarea punctului de pensie va creşte de la 732,8 lei în anul 2010 la 809,07 înanul 2015, respectiv la 893,28 lei în anul 2020. În anul 2025, conform estimărilor valoareapunctului de pensie va ajunge la 986.25 lei şi la 1088,90 lei în anul 2030.Pensia medie estimată ar urma să crească la 903 lei în anul 2015, 959 lei în anul2020, 1047 lei în anul 2025 şi la 1116 lei în anul 2030.Cele trei scenarii privind evoluţia profilului mediu estimat al pensiei pentru femeisunt prezentate în imaginea grafică de mai jos:1800Scenarii de evolutie a pensiei medii estimatepentru Femei in perioada 2011-203018001600160014001400120012001000100080080010 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 25 30Scenariu pesimistScenariu moderatScenariu optimistScenariul pesimist, moderat şi optimist privind evoluţia pensiei medii estimate(Femei).Scenariul optimist are ca ipoteze o creştere a valorii punctului de pensie în primii 5ani cu 3% şi în următorii ani cu 5%. Factorii de influenţă îşi aduc amândoi aportul. Inflaţialuată în calcul este în procent de 3%, iar creşterea salariilor în termeni reali cu 4% , ceea ceRevista Română de Statistică – Supliment Trim IV/2012 363

atrage o influenţă de 2% asupra valorii punctului de pensie. Efectul asupra pensiei mediiestimate este o creştere cu 33,99% în 2020 faţă de anul 2010, cu 69,09% în anul 2025 faţăde anul 2010 şi cu 108,3% în anul 2030 faţă de anul 2010, ceea ce reprezintă o dublare apensiei medii estimate pentru femei. Valoarea punctului de pensie va creşte de la 732,8 leiîn anul 2010 la 824,77 în anul 2015, respectiv la 1052,64 lei în anul 2020. În anul 2025,conform estimărilor valoarea punctului de pensie va ajunge la 1343,47 lei şi la 1714,64 leiîn anul 2030. Pensia medie estimată ar urma să crească la 920 lei în anul 2015, la 1130 leiîn anul 2020, la 1426 lei în anul 2025 şi la 1757 lei în anul 2030.Perioada 2011-2030Cele trei scenarii privind evoluţia pensiei medii estimate pe baza unui profilsalarial mediu cu activitate desfăşurată în condiţii normale au ca element comun creştereamai accentuată după anul 2015.Scenariile de evoluţie ale pensiilor medii estimate pentru bărbaţi au o evoluţieasemănătoare şi rezultă din valorificarea prin metoda actuarială a veniturilor medii ale unuisalariat mediu cu un stagiu de cotizare standard. Întregul stagiu este realizat în condiţiinormale de muncă.Pensiile medii estimate pentru bărbaţi în scenariul pesimist pot fi de 921 lei în anul2015, 982 lei în anul 2020, 1048 lei în anul 2025 şi 1116 lei în anul 2030.Scenariul moderat poate avea ca rezultate evoluţia pensiei medii estimate pentrubărbaţi la 939 lei, respectiv cu 9,3% în anul 2015 faţă de anul 2010, la 1051 lei în anul 2020ceea ce reprezintă o creştere cu 22,43% faţă de anul de bază, la 1178 lei în anul 2025,respectiv cu 37,29% faţă de anul de bază, la 1317 lei în anul 2030, adică o creştere cu53,43% faţă de anul de bază, 2010.În cadrul scenariului optimist, evoluţia pensiei medii estimate va fi de 1157 lei înanul 2020, 1428 lei în anul 2025 şi 1757 lei în anul 2030. Creşterea procentuală în cadrulacestui scenariu va fi de 9,3% în anul 2015, 34,79% în anul 2020, 66,40% în anul 2025,104,74% în anul 2030, raportându-ne la anul 2010.Evoluţiile pensiei medii estimate pentru femei şi a pensiei medii estimate pentrubărbaţi sunt asemănătoare. În anul 2015 stagiul standard de cotizare pentru bărbaţistagnează la 35 de ani, în timp ce stagiul standard de cotizare pentru femei continuă săcrească până în anul 2030. În anul 2030 stagiul standard de cotizare este egal pentru femeişi pentru bărbaţi, respectiv de 35 de ani, aşa cum prevede legea actuală.În anul 2030 pensiile medii estimate sunt egale pentru ambele categorii, femei şibărbaţi, având în vedere egalizarea condiţiilor de pensionare în ceea ce priveşte condiţia destagiu de cotizare.Vârsta standard de pensionare va fi în anul 2015 de 65 de ani pentrubărbaţi, în timp ce vârsta standard pentru femei va creşte de la 60 de ani la 63 de ani în anul2030. Realizarea aceluiaşi stagiu de cotizare de 35 de ani în condiţiile vârstei diferenţiate,presupune utilizarea intensivă a perioadei active din punct de vedere economic pentrufemei, care au de realizat un stagiu egal într-o durată posibilă de activitate mai mică cu 2ani decât perioada de activitate a bărbaţilor.Un aspect care trebuie clarificat este acela că punctajele medii anuale estimate suntabsolut necesare de adus spre informare viitorilor pensionari pentru a lua act din timpasupra viitorului lor financiar, eliminându-se „şocul” de pensionare. Un salariat care a fostîncadrat înainte de pensionare cu salariul mediu de 1937 lei, cât era la nivelul anului 2010,va primi, de exemplu în anul 2011 o pensie de 838 lei dacă este femeie şi 853 lei dacă estebărbat, cu condiţia să fi realizat un stagiu mediu de cotizare de 28 ani şi 2 luni (femeie) sau33 ani şi 2 luni (bărbat) şi veniturile salariale să se fi situat la nivel mediu în aceastăperioadă. În calcul am utilizat doar procentul sporului de vechime conform legislaţiei364Revista Română de Statistică – Supliment Trim IV/2012

actuale, procent care a fost păstrat şi pentru perioada 1.04.1992-1.04.2001. De asemenea unelement păstrat în elaborarea modelelor a fost compensaţia bănească de 10.160 lei,acordată pentru toate categoriile în mai 1993. În cazul profilelor medii ale pensionarilorcare au avut grupe de muncă am considerat că toată perioada de activitate a fost defăşuratăîn aceste condiţii. Al doilea aspect este situaţia anului 2011 în care menţinând aceeaşivaloare a punctului de pensie de 732,80 lei din anul precedent, aşa cum este păstrată prinLegea bugetului asigurărilor sociale pentru anul 2011, un pensionar al anului 2011 are unpunctaj mediu anual mai mic decât cel al anului 2010.În acest sens legiuitorul a prevăzut o procedură de ajustare iniţială, cu raportul de43,3% dintre salariul mediu brut al anului precedent şi valoarea punctului de pensie de ladata pensionării. Această ajustare, legiuitorul nu a definit clar cum va funcţiona în viitor şidacă va păstra diferenţa de ajustare a punctajului mediu anual efectiv realizat de un noupensionar ca adaos la punctajul mediu anual păstrat în plată.În ceea ce priveşte pensionarii care au defăşurat activitate în grupele de muncă,statutul lor economic va fi mai bun decât cel estimat, cunoscând faptul că legislaţia actualăle oferă o dublă compensare: Reducerea vârstei de pensionare şi majorarea punctajelormedii anuale. Reducerea cumulativă a vârstei de pensionare cu maximum 13 ani este orecompensă care în prezent nu este cuantificată din punct de vedere economic. Deasemenea, profilurile salariale ale acestor persoane se completează de regulă cu o gamădiversă de sporuri şi adaosuri la salariile de încadrare. În cazul unui pensionar care-şicompletează stagiul standard cu perioada studiilor universitare la zi, situaţia este maisumbră decât nivelul mediu estimat, deoarece stagiile asimilate de tipul studiilor suntrecompensate cu punctaje anuale de 0,25000 puncte pe an de studii dacă studiile au fostefectuate după aprilie 2001 sau cu rezultatul raportului dintre salariul minim brut şi salariulmediu brut pe economie. Comparativ cu situaţia pensiilor pentru limită de vârstă din anul2010, pensiile noilor pensionari sunt mai mici. În anul 2010 pensia pentru limită de vârstăşi vechime integrală era de 1057 lei, ceea ce reprezintă 1,44241 puncte în medie pentru unpensionar. Profilul mediu real al pensionarului existent în anul 2010, rezultă din dateefectiv realizate şi din combinaţia celor 6 profile medii care au fost estimate. Într-ocompoziţie de 6 tipuri x o persoană, estimările ar conduce la crearea unui nivel mediu alpensiilor corespunzătoare unui punctaj mediu estimat de 1,34175 puncte, respectiv a uneipensii medii de 984 lei.În punctajul mediu efectiv realizat la nivelul anului 2010 de 1,44241 puncte suntincluşi toţi pensionarii care au realizat cel puţin stagiul standard de cotizare.Ratele de activitate la nivelul persoanelor peste 60 de ani şi peste 65 de ani, aratăclar că persoanele pensionate îşi continuă activitatea în muncă şi-şi depăşesc limitastagiului standard de cotizare.Bibliografie selectivă[1]. Anghelache, C., (2008) - „Tratat de statistică teoretică şi economică”, EdituraEconomică, Bucureşti.[2]. Anghelache, C., Lilea, F.P.C., (2012) - „Econometrie”, Editura Artifex, Bucureşti.[3]. Anton, Carp, A. (2009) -„The principle of compulsory contribution and the pensionrights’ restitution in the social insurance system of Romania”, „InternationalConference The Fourth ICMIE 2009”, Politehnica University of Bucharest IndustrialManagement Chair, Publicat în Proceedings şi în vol. „Management in the WorldwideContemporary Challenges” - Bucharest; Niculescu Publishing House, 2009, ISBN978-973-748-468-0, pp.239-247, categoria B+.Revista Română de Statistică – Supliment Trim IV/2012 365

Analysis of the Turnover Evolution with the Helpof Multiple RegressionMioara TURCAS, PhD Studentmioaraturcas@yahoo.comAcademy of Economic Studies, BucharestAbstractTurnover represents the sum of sales (less taxes) realized by the company inpresent and normal activity. It is the sum of sale of merchandise, manufactured products,services and products from auxiliary activities.Turnover presents importance for study as it reflects te volume of businessgenerated by the current activity of the enterprise and allows thus the appreciation of size,position on market and offers information on the dynamics of the activity, developmentopportunities and the importance of the enterprise at sector level. The results of thecompany will be better as it manages to sell more.Key words: turnover increase, multiple regressio, dependent variable,multicoliniarity, retrograde selection, best regression.JEL Classification: D00Studiul s-a efectuat asupra firmei SC ALFA SRL cu menţiunea ca denumireafirmei este fictivă, iar datele financiare sunt reale. Societatea este din Alba Iulia, si are caobiect de activitate „Fabricarea painii, fabricarea prăjiturilor şi a produselor proaspete depatiserie„ şi a avut de-a lungul perioadei analizate activitate de producţie şi comerţ cuproduse alimentare şi nealimentare.Personalul societăţii este recrutat cu atenţie şi dimensionat permanent dupăvolumul activităţii. Înzestrarea tehnică a firmei este importantă, pentru activitatea firmei.Stocurile sunt structurate în: materii prime şi materiale, marfă si ambalaje folosite inactivitatea de producţie. Aprovizionarea cu stocuri de materii prime şi marfuri se face înfuncţie de cererea pieţei, astfel că stocurile se rotesc normal pentru activitatea de producţieşi vanzare, excepţie facând perioadele când se anticipează o creştere a preturilor, fapt pentrucare se fac aprovizionari suplimentare pentru perioade mai mari de activitate.Pentru a îmbunătaţii activitatea firmei, administratorul societăţii doreşte să ştiecare sunt factorii care duc la creşterea cifrei de afaceri şi ce aport are fiecare în acestăcreştere.Cifra de afaceri depinde de : factorii interni: numărul de personal, stocul de marfă şi structura acestuia,stocul de materie primă şi dotarea tehnică care participă activ la realizarea cifrei de afaceri; factori externi : inflaţia şi puterea de cumpărare a populaţiei din zonă.În acest scop, au fost preluate şi apoi prelucrate datele din balanţele lunare deverificare aferente perioadei ianuarie 2005- decembrie 2011. Totodată, pentru aceeaşiperioadă au fost colectate date puse la dispoziţie de Direcţia Regională de Statistică Alba şide Agenţia Judeţeană de Ocupare a Forţei de Muncă Alba.366Revista Română de Statistică – Supliment Trim IV/2012

Dispunem, aşadar, de 84 de observaţii asupra mărimii variabilelor cifra de afaceri,numărul de personal, stocul lunar de marfă, stocul lunar de materii prime, valoarea netă amijloacelor fixe implicate în realizarea cifrei de afaceri, inflaţia şi veniturile populaţiei lanivelul judeţului Alba, pentru ambele firme. Veniturile populaţiei din judeţ au fost calculateca suma dintre veniturile lunare totale salariale, veniturile totale lunare din pensii şiindemnizaţiile lunare totale de şomaj. Facem menţiunea că veniturile din profesii liberalenu au putut fi obţinute, iar ponderea acestora în veniturile totale ale populaţiei din judet esteredusă.Deoarece cifra de afaceri este un indicator important care depinde de mai mulţifactori, pentru estimarea evoluţiei acesteia vom folosi regresia multiplă.Ecuaţia de regresie multiplă va fi:y = a 1 x 1 + a 2 x 2 +.....+ a n x n + εunde:- y este variabila exogenă,- x este vectorul variabilelor independente,- a este vectorul coeficienţilor, de dimensiune 1 x n,- ε este o expresie a erorii de estimare.Liniaritatea relaţiei se referă la coeficienţi şi nu la variabile şi dacă se consideră x 1constant egala cu 1, obţinem un model liniar care include un termen liber.Aspectele urmarite sunt: estimarea coeficienţilor a, calitatea estimării, verificarea ipotezelor, calitatea predicţiei, alegerea modelului cel mai bun.Ne propunem să indentificăm cum este influenţată cifra de afaceri notată cu ca defactorii: numărul de personal notat cu p, stocul de marfă notat cu stmc, stocul de materieprimă notat cu stmpc, activele imobilizate care participă direct la realizarea cifrei de afacerinotate cu afc, inflaţia notată cu infl şi veniturile totale ale populaţiei din judeţul Alba notatecu vabc, pentru a putea elabora cel mai bun model de predicţie a evoluţiei cifrei de afaceri.Folosim datele de care dispunem pentru SC ALFA SRL.Unit.masura mii eur mii eurRevista Română de Statistică – Supliment Trim IV/2012 367miieurmiieur % mii eurCAcomp P vabc stmpc afc infl stmcLunaian.-05 0,00 0 20276,77 0,00 0,00 9,00 0,00feb.-05 0,00 0 19140,10 0,00 0,00 9,00 0,00mar.-05 0,00 0 19860,77 0,00 0,00 9,00 0,00apr.-05 0,00 0 20997,28 0,00 0,00 9,00 0,00mai.-05 16,07 10 20411,40 6,84 0,00 9,00 1,64iun.-05 12,92 27 20861,52 5,24 0,00 9,00 1,43iul.-05 14,23 27 20617,20 5,73 0,00 9,00 1,71aug.-05 15,71 27 21008,47 6,19 0,00 9,00 1,77sep.-05 18,57 26 21104,27 7,45 0,00 9,00 3,66oct.-05 19,82 26 20894,49 7,87 0,00 9,00 3,93

Unit.masura mii eur mii eurmiieurmiieur % mii eurnov.05 19,72 28 22041,48 7,67 0,00 9,00 3,83dec.-05 17,67 27 22786,63 6,97 0,00 9,00 3,94ian.-06 17,91 28 25050,36 6,57 0,00 6,56 3,89feb.-06 17,35 30 23956,02 6,77 0,00 6,56 3,86mar.-06 21,72 30 25309,92 8,36 0,00 6,56 5,76apr.-06 18,73 29 25228,61 6,90 0,00 6,56 5,27mai.-06 20,01 31 25707,18 8,87 0,00 6,56 5,05iun.-06 19,12 31 25989,12 8,44 0,00 6,56 4,59iul.-06 17,76 29 25913,51 6,91 0,00 6,56 3,11aug.-06 17,89 29 25992,44 7,24 0,00 6,56 2,83sep.-06 16,34 29 26403,82 6,50 2,12 6,56 1,65oct.-06 19,64 30 27438,72 7,38 2,13 6,56 3,79nov.06 25,41 34 28440,55 7,73 2,13 6,56 7,15dec.-06 22,05 33 32543,44 7,16 2,13 6,56 5,59ian.-07 23,51 28 30310,16 8,65 2,22 4,84 4,91feb.-07 22,61 30 32096,15 7,83 2,22 4,84 4,89mar.-07 25,35 30 32981,75 9,31 2,22 4,84 5,26apr.-07 22,77 29 32788,06 8,47 2,23 4,84 5,36mai.-07 23,57 31 33222,98 8,84 3,53 4,84 6,08iun.-07 26,92 31 33858,53 9,21 3,55 4,84 8,76iul.-07 26,64 29 34520,77 9,76 3,58 4,84 6,78aug.-07 33,51 29 34926,32 13,60 3,59 4,84 6,07sep.-07 28,13 29 34524,71 11,15 3,59 4,84 5,66oct.-07 28,35 30 38814,40 11,87 3,58 4,84 5,97nov.07 28,36 34 39981,45 11,45 5,07 4,84 5,16dec.-07 28,91 33 41028,56 11,61 8,22 4,84 8,09ian.-08 27,64 36 38685,65 10,30 7,43 7,85 8,33feb.-08 31,83 38 37067,44 11,85 7,47 7,85 10,21mar.-08 33,08 38 37602,94 12,26 7,44 7,85 10,51apr.-08 34,08 39 38275,68 12,43 7,46 7,85 11,18mai.-08 42,86 37 38325,95 15,70 7,47 7,85 16,15iun.-08 41,00 37 38978,40 13,15 7,48 7,85 16,06iul.-08 41,58 39 39481,92 12,53 7,50 7,85 17,67aug.-08 39,47 39 38922,51 11,56 7,54 7,85 16,62sep.-08 40,62 40 39416,27 11,86 7,54 7,85 16,00oct.-08 43,11 39 44024,33 12,25 7,52 7,85 16,25nov.08 39,15 40 44160,05 11,53 7,49 7,85 14,62dec.-08 38,30 40 44040,69 11,08 7,45 7,85 14,52ian.-09 353,60 40 38043,34 9,37 6,48 5,59 333,91feb.-09 32,18 40 37863,22 9,13 6,44 5,59 12,93368Revista Română de Statistică – Supliment Trim IV/2012

Unit.masura mii eur mii eurmiieurmiieur % mii eurmar.-09 35,66 38 39625,78 11,17 6,43 5,59 14,02apr.-09 37,20 39 38247,93 10,25 6,46 5,59 15,94mai.-09 47,40 36 38310,63 11,56 6,48 5,59 21,49iun.-09 42,43 37 38450,21 10,14 6,49 5,59 21,00iul.-09 45,58 38 38653,77 10,30 6,49 5,59 22,04aug.-09 43,33 38 37568,59 10,31 6,49 5,59 20,27sep.-09 43,43 39 38123,63 9,12 6,49 5,59 19,97oct.-09 43,91 37 38557,97 10,10 6,48 5,59 20,12nov.09 38,33 37 38546,70 9,36 6,47 5,59 18,28dec.-09 36,91 39 39116,95 9,03 8,48 5,59 18,30ian.-10 28,15 39 41216,98 9,79 8,68 6,09 15,19feb.-10 35,75 39 39706,40 8,80 8,70 6,09 16,15mar.-10 41,86 40 41094,35 10,30 8,73 6,09 19,74apr.-10 42,17 34 39492,35 8,84 8,73 6,09 22,38mai.-10 51,72 33 39141,72 10,63 8,70 6,09 2,78iun.-10 53,34 32 38761,50 10,86 8,66 6,09 29,55iul.-10 57,90 32 36763,69 9,46 8,63 6,09 36,00aug.-10 49,81 37 36527,89 10,01 8,61 6,09 27,06sep.-10 48,78 38 36518,44 9,09 8,59 6,09 24,98oct.-10 36,07 39 36457,48 8,15 8,57 6,09 16,35nov.10 49,21 43 36801,46 11,26 8,55 6,09 25,68dec.-10 46,30 44 37588,17 11,46 130,27 6,09 24,30ian.-11 51,95 44 37172,60 12,01 126,58 5,79 24,43feb.-11 46,37 43 37492,64 10,79 126,80 5,79 23,20mar.-11 58,13 43 37878,32 15,60 127,70 5,79 28,30apr.-11 68,73 42 38249,63 16,99 128,66 5,79 38,61mai.-11 67,75 42 38155,35 18,46 129,16 5,79 32,55iun.-11 65,90 44 38759,19 17,14 131,81 5,79 34,08iul.-11 66,12 45 38228,20 18,19 131,54 5,79 34,97aug.-11 67,02 49 38094,44 17,02 131,82 5,79 33,92sep.-11 69,14 48 38091,58 13,98 131,52 5,79 35,73oct.-11 70,31 50 37801,51 13,04 131,15 5,79 35,50nov.11 65,99 52 38578,85 11,07 130,77 5,79 35,32dec.-11 64,17 49 38798,78 10,88 130,52 5,79 33,74Tabelul 1. Date comparabile privind cifra de afaceri, numarul de personal, veniturilepopulaţiei din judeţ, stocul de materie primă, active fixe, inflaţie şi stocul de marfa la SCALFA SRLVariabilele sunt notate astfel:- variabila dependenta cifra de afaceri : Y – cacompRevista Română de Statistică – Supliment Trim IV/2012 369

- variabilele independente X sunt reprezentate de: numărul de personal (p), stoculde marfă (stmc), stocul de materie primă (stmpc), activele imobilizate care participă directla realizarea cifrei de afaceri (afc), inflaţia ( infl) şi veniturile totale ale populaţiei dinjudeţul Alba (vabc).Estimarea parametrilor de regresiePe baza datelor din tabelul 1., folosind programul Eviews, s-au obţinut următoarelerezultate:Dependent Variable: CACOMPMethod: Least SquaresDate: 05/29/12 Time: 22:24Sample: 2005:01 2011:12Included observations: 84Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.AFC 0.016795 0.011717 1.433423 0.1558INFL -0.244123 0.368621 -0.662259 0.5098P 14.74307 7.880708 1.870779 0.0652STMC 0.993358 0.011763 84.44935 0.0000STMPC 1.170815 0.221768 5.279456 0.0000VABC 0.000159 0.000104 1.524685 0.1314C 14.12405 420.5098 0.033588 0.0433R-squared 0.991485 Mean dependent var 3860.226Adjusted R-squared 0.990821 S.D. dependent var 3883.979S.E. of regression 372.1060 Akaike info criterion 14.75589Sum squared resid 10661643 Schwarz criterion 14.95846Log likelihood -612.7474 F-statistic 1494.284Durbin-Watson stat 1.822485 Prob(F-statistic) 0.000000Tabelul 2 . Regresia multipla pentru SC ALFA SRLEcuatia modelului de regresie este :Y = 0.016795 x 1 – 0.244123 x 2 + 14.74307 x 3 + 0.993358 x 4 + 1.170815 x 5 + 0.000159 x 6 +14.12405.Estimation Command:=====================LS CACOMP AFC INFL P STMC STMPC VABC CEstimation Equation:=====================CACOMP = C(1)*AFC + C(2)*INFL + C(3)*P + C(4)*STMC + C(5)*STMPC +C(6)*VABC + C(7)Substituted Coefficients:=====================CACOMP = 0.01679549061*AFC - 0.2441226876*INFL + 14.74306623*P +0.9933584939*STMC + 1.170814919*STMPC + 0.0001587720805*VABC +14.12405014370Revista Română de Statistică – Supliment Trim IV/2012

Coeficienţii a 1 , a 2, a 3, a 4 , a 5 si a 6 sunt coeficienţi de regresie parţiali şi arată influenţa parţialăa fiecărei variabile independente, atunci când influenţa tuturor celorlalte variabileindependente este considerată constantă.Interpretarea parametrilor modelului de regresieTermenul liber are valoarea 14.12405. Acesta evidenţiaza valoarea lui yindependent de valorile x 1 , x 2, x 3 , x 4 , x 5 si x 6 (valoarea cifrei de afaceri independent denumărul de personal, veniturile populaţiei din judeţ, stocul de materie primă, active fixe,inflaţie şi stocul de marfa).Coeficientul a 1 = 0.016795 arată că dacă variabila x 1 (active fixe) creşte cu ounitate, iar celelalte variabile x 2, x 3 , x 4, x 5 si x 6 răman constante, valoarea lui y (cifra deafaceri) creşte cu 0.016795 unităţi.În mod asemănător, în condiţiile în care inflaţia creşte cu o unitate şi celelaltevariabile rămân constante, cifra de afaceri scade cu 0.244123 unităţi, pentru creşterea cu ounitate a numărului de personal, cifra de afaceri creşte cu 14.74307unităţi, pentru creştereacu o unitate a stocurilor de marfă, cifra de afaceri creşte cu 0.993358 unităţi, pentrucreşterea cu o unitate a stocurilor de materie primă, cifra de afaceri creşte cu 1.170815unităţi, iar pentru o creştere cu o unitate a veniturilor populaţiei din judeţ, cifra de afacericreşte cu 0.000159 unităţi. Putem constata că o creştere a inflaţiei duce la scăderea cifrei deafaceri, în timp ce o creştere a personalului duce la creşterea cifrei de afaceri într-un ritmmai alert decât creşterea stocurilor de marfă şi materii prime. Creşterea veniturilorpopulaţiei nu duce la o creştere a consumului şi implicit a vânzărilor firmei.Pentru termenul a 1 , t = 1.433423, iar pragul de semnificaţie este 0.1558> 0.05 ceeace înseamnă că acest coeficient este nesemnificativ.Pentru a 2 , t = -0.662259, pragul de semnificaţie este 0.5098> 0.05, deci este uncoeficient nesemnificativ.Pentru a 3 , t = 1.870779, pragul de semnificaţie este de 0.0652> 0.05, este uncoeficient nesemnificativ .Pentru a 4 , t = 84.44935, pragul de semnificaţie este de 0.0000< 0.05, este uncoeficient semnificativ.Pentru a 5 , t = 5.279456, pragul de semnificaţie este de 0.0000< 0.05, coeficientsemnificativ.Pentru a 6 , t = 1.524685, pragul de semnificaţie este de 0.1314 > 0.05, coeficientnesemnificativ.Pentru termenul liber a 7 , t = 0.033588, pragul de semnificaţie este de 0.0433

2 2 Ho: s yx s , cele doua dispersii sunt aproximativ egale, influenţafactorului x nu diferă semanificativ de influenţa factorilor întâmplători;2 2 H 1 : s yx s , influenţa factorului x şi a factorilor întâmplători masuratăprin cele două dispersii diferă semnificativ , caz în care, putem spune că modelul teoreticeste similar celui real.Dacă valoarea statisticii F calc > F α,v1,v2 , atunci suntem în regiunea de respingere aipotezei nule şi ca atare acceptăm ipoteza alternativă.Valoarea statisticii F este 1494.284.F calc = 1494.284> F tab = 2.332 pentru un nivel de semnificaţie de 5%, deci, serespinge ipoteza nulă .Verificarea ipotezelor modelului de regresieIpoteza de homoscedasticitate a variabilei rezidualePentru verificarea acestei ipoteze se foloseşte testul White. Testul are la bazaconstruirea unor noi ecuaţii de regresie de forma:22t 0 1xt 2xt t, t 1,n ,unde noile erori tse presupun a fi distribuite normal şi independent de erorile e t .Dacă în urma aplicării testului White se constată o legatură între variabilele ε t , x t six atunci erorile modelului sunt heteroscedastice, altfel sunt homoscedastice.2tPrin metoda celor mai mici pătrate se estimează noii parametrii α 0 , α 1 , α 2 aimodelului auxiliar de regresie şi folosim testul F pentru respingerea ipotezei nule:H 0 : α 1 = α 2 = 0;H 1 : cel putin un coeficient este nenul.Pentru a verifica ipoteza de homoscedasticitate, am aplicat testul White.White Heteroskedasticity Test:F-statistic 1.478521 Probability 0.152845Obs*R-squared 16.79413 Probability 0.157507Test Equation:Dependent Variable: RESID^2Method: Least SquaresDate: 05/30/12 Time: 01:10Sample: 2005:01 2011:12Included observations: 84Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.C 768456.5 5041128. 0.152437 0.8793AFC 1922.355 788.1830 2.438971 0.0172AFC^2 -0.136236 0.058321 -2.335958 0.0223INFL 16567.55 9506.811 1.742703 0.0857INFL^2 -13.30293 7.086426 -1.877240 0.0646P -44004.31 63542.22 -0.692521 0.4909P^2 392.2366 1106.932 0.354346 0.7241STMC -644.0665 200.3048 -3.215432 0.0020372Revista Română de Statistică – Supliment Trim IV/2012

STMC^2 0.018387 0.005755 3.194797 0.0021STMPC 1839.947 2005.658 0.917378 0.3621STMPC^2 -0.587090 0.793576 -0.739803 0.4619VABC -3.340200 2.663087 -1.254258 0.2139VABC^2 4.55E-07 3.77E-07 1.209294 0.2306R-squared 0.199930 Mean dependent var 126924.3Adjusted R-squared 0.064707 S.D. dependent var 776539.0S.E. of regression 750995.1 Akaike info criterion 30.03757Sum squared resid 4.00E+13 Schwarz criterion 30.41377Log likelihood -1248.578 F-statistic 1.478521Durbin-Watson stat 1.739846 Prob(F-statistic) 0.152845Tabelul 3. Testul WhiteÎn continuare, aplicăm testul Fisher şi emitem ipotezele:2 2H0: R 2 / x,x 0H2 21: R 2 / x,x 0, atunci modelul este homoscedastic, modelul este heteroscedastic.F tab = 2.332 pentru nivelul de semnificaţie fixat 5%, iar valoarea F calc = 1.478521.F calc < F tab, deci nu putem respinge ipoteza H 0, adică erorile sunt homoscedastice, cu oprobabilitate de 95%.Diagrama reziduuri- valori estimateGraficul reziduurilor este redat mai jos:3000200010000-10002005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011CACOMP ResidualsFigura 1. Diagrama reziduurilorRevista Română de Statistică – Supliment Trim IV/2012 373

Valorile reziduurilor se pot considera într-o regiune de tip banda orizontală,indicând faptul că nu se contrazic ipotezele de normalitate a erorilor. Aspectul de bandăuniformă arată constanţa dispersiei reziduurilor pentru tot domeniul variabilei cacomp.Ipoteza independenţei valorilor variabilei rezidualePentru depistarea autocorelarii variabilelor reziduale, folosim testul DurbinWatson . Acest test depisteaza autocorelarea de ordinul întâi a reziduului, estimat prinmetoda celor mai mici pătrate.Se testeaza ipotezele: H 0 : 0,pentru cazul în care reziduurile nu sunt corelate; H 1 : 0,pentru cazul în care reziduurile verifica un proces autoregresivde ordinul I.Statistica testului Durbin Watson se evalueaza în raport cu seria reziduurilor( e t) , atunci când parametrii modelului de regresie sunt estimaţi prin metoda celor mait1, nmici pătrate.Statistica testului are expresia:DWnt2( et et1)nt1e2t2Tabelele cu valorile critice cuprind elemente specificate pentru perechea de valorid L si d U .Exista patru situatii întâlnite în testarea ipotezei nule: DW < d L, atunci se respinge ipoteza nulă şi reziduurile prezintă o autocorelarepozitivă de ordinul I; DW > 4- d L, se respinge ipoteza nulă , reziduurile prezentând o autocorelarenegativă de ordinul I; d U < DW < 4- d U, se acceptă ipoteza nulă a necorelarii , prin procesautoregresiv de ordinul I a valorilor reziduale; situaţie de indecizie când d L

231 ;32coeficientul de asimetrie24 ;2coeficientul de aplatizare( e t)t1, nUnul din testele care verifică ipoteza nulă a repartizării normale a reziduuluieste testul Jarque- Bera.În raport cu coeficienţii de asimetrie , respectiv de aplatizare β 2 se defineşstestatistica testului astfel:22 1/ 2 1 2 3 2J – B = 26 24 n n Ipotezele sunt:H 0 : erorile sunt distribuite normal, adica eşantionul de date provine dintr-o distribuţienormală;H 1 : : erorile nu sunt distribuite normal, respingem ipoteza nulăa pentru un grad desemnificatie statistică de5%.Se respinge ipoteza nulă a repartizarii normale a variabilei reziduale pentru unprag de semnificaţie α , dacăeste indeplinită conditia:2J B 2;1 1/1250403020100-1000 0 1000 2000Series: ResidualsSample 2005:01 2011:12Observations 84Mean -6.32E-13Median -34.64901Maximum 2663.222Minimum -949.5613Std. Dev. 358.4041Skewness 4.769196Kurtosis 37.98585Jarque-Bera 4.602468Probability 0.000000Figura 2. Histograma si caracteristicile reziduului estimatRevista Română de Statistică – Supliment Trim IV/2012 375

Coeficientul de asimetrie Skewness β 1 = 4.769196 şi de aplatizare Kurtosis β 2 =37.98585.Distribuţia reziduurilor are media apropiată de zero, prezinta asimetrie pozitivă,valoarea reziduurilor este mare în perioada analizatăa, iar aplatizarea este de 37.98,valoarea probabilităţii este 0%.Valoarea critica a testului Jarque- Bera pentru un grad de semnificaţie statistica de5% este 12.592. Cum statistica JB calculată este 4.602 < 12.592, atunci acceptăm ipotezanulăa, adică erorile sunt distribuite normal.Ipoteza multicoliniarităţiiO abordare a multicoliniarităţii este stabilirea unui indicator sintetic pentru adecide dacă o variabilă este coliniară cu celelalte sau cu un grup dintre celelalte.Am notat cu R 2icoeficientul de determinare obţinut în estimarea regresieimultiple în care variabila dependentă este afc (activele fixe) şi variabilele independente suntinfl (inflatie), p (numarul de personal), stmc (stocul de marfa), stmpc (stocul de materieprimă) si vabc (veniturile populaţiei) .afc = f(infl, stmc,p,stmpc, vabc)2Toleranţa variabilei se noteaza cu: η = 1- Ri.2Daca η < 0.1, atunci Rieste apropiat de 1 şi avem o legatură puternică între cifrade afaceri şi restul variabilelor independente. Ca urmare, cifra de afaceri este coliniara curestul variabilelor independente.Factorul de inflaţie a varianţei este notat VIF şi este inversul toleranţei:1VIF i = . iAcest factor masoara de câte ori este supraevaluată varianţa coeficienţilor cauzatăde multicoliniaritate în raport cu situaţia când nu ar exista coliniaritate. O valoare > 10indică existenţa coliniarităţii.Dependent Variable: VABCMethod: Least SquaresDate: 05/30/12 Time: 23:08Sample: 2005:12 2011:12Included observations: 73Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.AFC 1.521480 25.04379 0.060753 0.9517INFL -1015.780 393.6452 -2.580445 0.0121P 18767.25 9802.252 1.914586 0.0598STMC 14.45322 13.15541 1.098652 0.2759STMPC 1228.279 296.9932 4.135715 0.0001C 2257949. 386984.7 5.834725 0.0000R-squared 0.703556 Mean dependent var 3321043.Adjusted R-squared 0.681434 S.D. dependent var 736779.6S.E. of regression 415850.8 Akaike info criterion 28.79266376Revista Română de Statistică – Supliment Trim IV/2012

Sum squared resid 1.16E+13 Schwarz criterion 28.98091Log likelihood -1044.932 F-statistic 31.80251Durbin-Watson stat 0.428717 Prob(F-statistic) 0.000000Tabelul 4. Dependenţa veniturilor populaţiei de inflaţie, numărul de personal, stocul demarfă, stocul de materie primă şi activele fixeValoarea coeficientului de determinare este R 2 = 0.703556, iar toleranţa η = 0.505008 > 0.1,arată legatura slabă între cifra de afaceri şi restul variabilelor.VIF afc = 1.980162

Dependent Variable: CACOMPMethod: Least SquaresDate: 06/17/12 Time: 21:00Sample: 2005:01 2011:12Included observations: 84Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.AFC 0.017210 0.011658 1.476254 0.1439P 15.17624 7.825202 1.939406 0.0561STMC 0.993624 0.011714 84.82700 0.0000STMPC 1.166762 0.220884 5.282231 0.0000VABC 0.000179 9.90E-05 1.812990 0.0737C -227.5195 208.2747 -1.092401 0.0420R-squared 0.991436 Mean dependent var 3860.226Adjusted R-squared 0.990887 S.D. dependent var 3883.979S.E. of regression 370.7645 Akaike info criterion 14.73776Sum squared resid 10722371 Schwarz criterion 14.91139Log likelihood -612.9859 F-statistic 1806.053Durbin-Watson stat 1.820631 Prob(F-statistic) 0.000000Tabelul 5. Dependenţa cifrei de afaceri de dotarea cu active fixe, numărul de personal,stocul de marfă, stocul de materii prime şi veniturile populaţiei.În noul model, observăm că cea mai mare probabilitate critică o are variabila x 1 = afc(active fixe comparabile) pentru care p = 0.1439 > 0.05. Procedăm în continuare laeliminarea acesteia din model şi vom avea urmatoarea relaţie de dependentă:cacomp = f(p, stmc,stmpc,vabc)Dependent Variable: CACOMPMethod: Least SquaresDate: 06/17/12 Time: 21:35Sample: 2005:01 2011:12Included observations: 84Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.P 18.10030 7.626667 2.373291 0.0201STMC 0.995111 0.011757 84.64041 0.0000STMPC 1.290263 0.205949 6.264955 0.0000VABC 0.000135 9.49E-05 1.418799 0.1599C -257.7456 208.8072 -1.234371 0.0407R-squared 0.991197 Mean dependent var 3860.226Adjusted R-squared 0.990751 S.D. dependent var 3883.979S.E. of regression 373.5216 Akaike info criterion 14.74151Sum squared resid 11021955 Schwarz criterion 14.88620Log likelihood -614.1433 F-statistic 2223.823Durbin-Watson stat 1.743682 Prob(F-statistic) 0.000000Tabelul 6. Dependenţa cifrei de afaceri de numarul de personal, stocul de marfă, stocul dematerii prime si veniturile populaţiei.378Revista Română de Statistică – Supliment Trim IV/2012

Ecuaţia modelului este de data aceasta:Y = 18.10030x 3 + 0.995111x 4 + 1.290263x 5 + 0.000135x 6 - 257.7456.Estimation Command:=====================LS CACOMP P STMC STMPC VABC CEstimation Equation:=====================CACOMP = C(1)*P + C(2)*STMC + C(3)*STMPC + C(4)*VABC + C(5)Substituted Coefficients:=====================CACOMP = 18.10029887*P + 0.9951113627*STMC + 1.290263101*STMPC +0.0001346733362*VABC - 257.7455538Ca urmare a faptului că probabilitatea critică a variabilei x 6 = vabc este p = 0.1599 >0.05,procedăm la eliminarea acesteia din model. Relaţia dintre variabile va fi urmatoarea:cacomp = f(p,stmc,stmpc)Dependent Variable: CACOMPMethod: Least SquaresDate: 06/17/12 Time: 21:50Sample: 2005:01 2011:12Included observations: 84Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.P 22.42397 7.035500 3.187260 0.0020STMC 0.996699 0.011777 84.62812 0.0000STMPC 1.383639 0.196382 7.045641 0.0000C -42.65866 144.4978 -0.295220 0.0386R-squared 0.990973 Mean dependent var 3860.226Adjusted R-squared 0.990634 S.D. dependent var 3883.979S.E. of regression 375.8790 Akaike info criterion 14.74286Sum squared resid 11302804 Schwarz criterion 14.85861Log likelihood -615.2001 F-statistic 2927.359Durbin-Watson stat 1.592728 Prob(F-statistic) 0.000000Tabelul 7. Dependenţta cifrei de afaceri de numarul de personal, stocul de marfă si stoculde materii prime.Ecuaţia modelului este: Y = 22.42397x 3 + 0.996699x 4 + 1.383639x 5 - 42.65866.Estimation Command:=====================LS CACOMP P STMC STMPC CEstimation Equation:=====================CACOMP = C(1)*P + C(2)*STMC + C(3)*STMPC + C(4)Substituted Coefficients:=====================CACOMP = 22.42396648*P + 0.9966993046*STMC + 1.383638649*STMPC -42.65865675Cea mai buna regresie este data de ecuaţia:Revista Română de Statistică – Supliment Trim IV/2012 379

Y = 22.42397x 3 + 0.996699x 4 + 1.383639x 5 - 42.65866ConcluziiCea mai buna regresie pentru SC ALFA SRL este:Y = 22.42397x 3 + 0.996699x 4 + 1.383639x 5 - 42.65866 sauCACOMP = 22.42396648*P + 0.9966993046*STMC + 1.383638649*STMPC -42.65865675Creşterea cifrei de afaceri este influenţată de numărul de personal şi aprovizionarea custocuri de materii prime pentru activitatea de producţie şi stocuri de marfă pentru activitateade comerţ.Din valoarea activelor imobilizate, 32% reprezintă valoarea unui imobil care nucontribuie la dezvoltarea activităţii curente (casă de locuit) şi 5% reprezintă mijloace detransport care nu contribuie la creşterea cifrei de afaceri. Faptul că activele fixe nuinfluenţeaza creşterea cifrei de afaceri semnificativ este explicat şi de structura veniturilor:peste 70% din cifra de afaceri este obţinută din activitatea de comerţ, unde gradul deînzestrare tehnică nu este atât de mare ca în activitatea de producţie.Factorii externi activităţii firmei: inflaţia şi veniturile populaţtiei din judeţ nuinfluenţeaza semnificativ creşterea cifrei de afaceri.Bibliografie selectivă[1]. Andrei, T., Stancu, S., Iacob A.I., Tusa, E., - „Introducere în econometrie utilizândEviews”, Editura Economică, Bucureşti[2]. Anghelache, C., Mitruţ, C. (coordonatori), Bugudui, E., Deatcu, C. (2009) –„Econometrie: studii teoretice şi practice”, Editura Artifex, Bucureşti[3]. Anghelache, C., (2008) - „Tratat de statistică teoretică şi economică”, EdituraEconomică, Bucureşti[4]. Biji, M., Biji, E.M., Lilea, E., Anghelache, C., (2002) – „Tratat de statistică”, EdituraEconomică, Bucureşti380Revista Română de Statistică – Supliment Trim IV/2012

Architecture of an Inter-organizational InformationSystem for Monitoring the Trace of FreshVegetablesSenior Lecturer Ionut ANICA-POPA PhDionut.anica@gmail.comAcademy of Economic Studies, BucharestAbstractDue to the increasingly concerns of customers related to food safety and quality,the producers, processors and distributors have started to cooperate to build andimplement information systems that share data and information in order to fulfillcustomers’ requirements. Those systems, called inter-organizational information system(IOIS), can determine the improvement of organizational performances by increasing thecustomers’ trust in food acquired. This paper will propose architecture for an IOIS forfresh vegetables traceability.Key words: inter-organizational information system, food traceability, foodsafety, fresh vegetables supply chainJEL Classification: L86IntroducerePe măsură ce în cadrul obiectivelor sistemelor informaţionale a început să-şi facăloc asistarea şi sprijinirea relaţiilor cu partenerii de afaceri (clienţi şi furnizori) şiconsumatorii finali (Boonstra şi de Vries, 2005), a apărut necesitatea realizării unor sistemeinter-organizaţionale care să permită utilizarea şi partajarea resursele existente în cadrulsistemele informaţionale ale fiecărei organizaţii. Evoluţiile înregistrate în domeniultehnologiei informaţiei şi comunicaţiilor (TIC) începând cu ultimul deceniu al secolului alXX-lea au permis dezvoltarea unei game largi de sisteme informaţionale interorganizaţionale(SIIO), scopul acestora fiind variat: de diminuarea a riscurilor partenerilor,de acces mai facil pe pieţe, de creştere a cotei de piaţa, de sporire a calităţii produselor şiserviciilor furnizate etc. (Volkoff, 1999; Hong, 2002; Golden şi Powell, 2004; Kim et al.,2011).În contextul în care siguranţa alimentară ocupă o poziţie importantă în ceea cepriveşte preocupările organizaţiilor guvernamentale, producătorilor şi consumatorilor finali(Antle, 1999), sistemele informaţionale inter-organizaţionale pot deveni un instrumenteficient şi eficace pentru creşterea vizibilităţii pe lanţul producţie - procesare - distribuţie şiimplicit pentru creşterea încrederii consumatorilor în alimentele cumpărate şi consumate.Pe de altă parte, implementarea unor astfel de sisteme poate determina reducereasemnificativă a tranzacţiilor de pe piaţa „gri” şi implicit creşterea veniturilor bugetare.În lucrare se va realizare o descriere succintă a sistemelor informaţionale interorganizaţionale,a problematicii siguranţei alimentare şi se va prezenta arhitectura unuiSIIO pentru monitorizarea trasabilităţii legumelor proaspete.Revista Română de Statistică – Supliment Trim IV/2012 381

Sisteme informaţionale inter-organizaţionaleRolul unui SIIO este de a determina o creştere a performanţelor organizaţionaleprin reducerea costurilor şi creşterea productivităţii (Barett şi Konsynsky, 1982), iar încazul SIIO dezvoltate la nivelul lanţurilor de aprovizionare efectul constă în creştereavizibilităţii informaţiei şi SIIO (Kim et al., 2011). Pentru ca implementarea unui SIIO caresă producă efectele scontate este necesară participarea şi implicarea tuturor partenerilor(Shah et al., 2002) şi, în acelaşi timp, adoptarea şi adaptarea tehnologiilor TIC cele maipotrivite în proiectarea şi dezvoltarea SIIO (Volkoff, 1999).Hong (2002) propune structurarea sistemelor informaţionale inter-organizaţionaleîn patru categorii: Partajarea resurselor (Resource pooling) – acest tip de SIIO este specificorganizaţiilor care acţionează în acelaşi domeniu de activitate, scopul SIIO fiind de adiminua costurile şi riscurile prin punerea în comun a anumitor resurse. Printre avantajelepe care le oferă o astfel de abordare se numără creşterea cotei de piaţă a organizaţiilorpartenere, reducerea costurilor de logistică, creşterea competitivităţii. Cooperare complementară (Complementary cooperation) – acest tip de SIIOeste specific organizaţiilor care acţionează în domenii de activitate complementare, acesteaaflându-se într-o relaţie de tip furnizor-client, obiectivul SIIO fiind accesul pe o anumităpiaţă. Printre avantajele pe care le oferă o astfel de abordare se numără creşterea veniturilorprin îmbunătăţirea calităţii serviciilor oferite clienţilor, dezvoltarea afacerii la scarănaţională sau internaţională. Cooperare operaţională (Operational cooperation) - acest tip de SIIO estespecific organizaţiilor care acţionează în acelaşi domeniu de activitate, scopul SIIOconstând în îmbunătăţirea calităţii serviciilor oferite clienţilor sau în partajarea de informaţiide interes comun. Printre avantajele pe care le oferă o astfel de abordare se numărăschimbul mai rapid şi mai eficient de informaţii, creşterea veniturilor datorată creşteriicalităţii serviciilor, diminuarea timpului de răspuns la solicitările clienţilor. Coordonare operaţională (Operational coordination) – acest tip de SIIO estespecific organizaţiilor care acţionează în domenii de activitate complementare, acesteaaflându-se într-o relaţie de tip furnizor-client, obiectivul SIIO fiind îmbunătăţirea eficienţeioperaţionale a organizaţiilor partenere. Printre avantajele pe care le oferă o astfel deabordare se numără creşterea veniturilor, diminuarea riscurilor operaţionale, utilizare maieficientă capacităţilor de producţie şi reducerea costurilor de logistică, integrarea virtuală peverticală.Sistemele informaţionale inter-organizaţionale care implică parteneri situaţi lanivelul lanţului de aprovizionare au început sa fie utilizate mai intens şi datorită avantajelorcompetiţionale care rezultă din exploatarea acestora (Shah et al., 2002).Siguranţa alimentară şi trasabilitatea legumelor proaspeteLegislaţia în domeniul siguranţei alimentare existentă la nivelul Uniunii Europene(UE) conferă consumatorului final o serie de drepturi şi garanţii referitoare la alimente şiproduse alimentare, pe de o parte, privind accesul la informaţii referitoare la produselealimentare achiziţionate, iar pe de altă parte, garantând calitatea alimentelor achiziţionate.Astfel, conform articolului 2 din Regulamentul (CE) nr. 178/2002 al ParlamentuluiEuropean și al Consiliului, prin "produs alimentar" (sau "aliment") se înţelege „oricesubstanță sau produs, indiferent dacă este prelucrat, parțial prelucrat sau neprelucrat,destinat sau prevăzut în mod rezonabil a fi ingerat de oameni. «Produsele alimentare»includ băuturile, guma de mestecat și orice substanță, inclusiv apa, încorporată în mod382Revista Română de Statistică – Supliment Trim IV/2012

intenționat în produse alimentare în timpul producerii, preparării sau tratării lor”. În cadrulaceluiaşi document, trasabilitatea produselor alimentare este definită ca reprezentând„capacitatea de a depista și a urmări anumite produse alimentare, hrană pentru animale, unanimal de la care se obțin produse alimentare sau o substanță destinată încorporării sau careeste de așteptat să fie încorporată în anumite produse alimentare sau hrană pentru animale,pe parcursul tuturor etapelor de producție, prelucrare și distribuție”.Realizarea unei monitorizări eficiente a trasabilităţii produselor alimentarereprezintă un prim pas în îndeplinirea cerinţelor consumatorului final referitoare lagarantarea siguranţei alimentare şi a prezenţei informaţiilor care să certifice acest aspect(Beulens et al., 2005).Având în vedere că pentru obţinerea fiecărui tip de produs alimentar este necesarădesfăşurarea unei activităţi de producţie specifice, este necesară realizarea unei clasificare asistemele de monitorizare a trasabilităţii produselor alimentare în vederea gestionăriieficiente a tuturor proceselor care se desfăşoară pentru obţinerea produsului final. Oposibilă clasificare identifică următoarele categorii şi subcategorii de sisteme specificeproducţiei de produsele alimentare: (a) sisteme destinate culturilor de bază: (i) cereale; (ii)fructe şi legume; (iii) cafea şi ceai; (ii) sisteme destinate efectivelor de animale: (i) bovine;(ii) porcine; (iii) ovine şi caprine; (iv) păsări; (iii) sisteme destinate acvaculturii: (i) peşti şimoluşte.Arhitectura unui SIIO pentru monitorizarea trasabilităţii legumelorproaspeteUn sistem proiectat pentru a realiza monitorizarea trasabilităţii legumelorproaspete trebuie să permită o jurnalizarea exactă a istoricului şi localizărilor avute de unlot de produse alimentare pe întreg lanţul producţie - distribuţie (Dabbene şi Gay, 2011).Pornind de la această premisă, este necesar ca principalii actori implicaţi: fermieri,proprietarii de depozite, distribuitorii en-gros şi magazinele en-detail să coopereze învederea partajării de date şi informaţii referitoare la legumele proaspete comercializate. Maimult, pentru a creşte vizibilitatea la nivelul lanţului producţie – distribuţie, este esenţialăcrearea şi menţinerea unei baze de date la nivel naţional, care să cuprindă date şi informaţiiprivind istoricul fiecărui lot de legume proaspete comercializat.În figura 1 este propusă arhitectura unui sistem informaţional inter-organizaţionalpentru monitorizarea trasabilităţii legumelor proaspete care îşi propune: Să faciliteze şi să standardizeze schimbul electronic de date între actoriiimplicaţi pe lanţul producţie – distribuţie. Să colecteze într-o baza de date naţională date şi informaţii privind toateloturile de legume proaspete. Baza de date va fi structurata în două secţiuni:ooo secţiune publică, care va permite consultarea prin intermediulinternetului de către consumatorii finali şi va furniza o serie de date şiinformaţii de interes general pentru aceştia: ferma unde au fost obţinutelegumele, data recoltării, data intrării în depozit, data sosirii în magazinetc.o secţiune destinată agenţilor economici, în care aceştia să-şi actualizezeinformaţiile referitoare la loturile de legume comercializate, dar să şipoate efectua consultări în ceea ce priveşte istoricul şi localizărilor pentruaceste loturi.Revista Română de Statistică – Supliment Trim IV/2012 383

Figura 1 Arhitectura unui SIIO pentru monitorizarea trasabilităţii legumelor proaspetePentru implementarea unui sistem de monitorizare a trasabilităţii legumelorproaspete la nivelul lanţului producţie – distribuţie este necesară existenţa unui sistem detrasabilitate internă la nivelul fiecărui actor implicat: fermieri, proprietarii de depozite,distribuitorii en-gros şi magazinele en-detail (Karlsen et al., 2011).ConcluziiProiectarea, dezvoltarea şi implementarea de sisteme informaţionale interorganizaţionalecare să funcţioneze la nivelul lanţului producţie – distribuţie este oprovocare majoră atât pentru actorii implicaţi, cât şi pentru organismele guvernamentalecare trebuie să stabilească maniera în care se va desfăşura schimbul electronic de date, darşi asigurarea integrităţii şi securităţii bazei de date la nivel naţional. Un alt elementimportant are în vedere modalitatea în care sunt gestionate legumele proaspete care suntimportate şi cum se poate asigura consumatorului final o cantitate minimală de informaţiireferitoare la trasabilitatea acestora.AcknowledgementAceastă lucrare a fost cofinanţată din Fondul Social European, prin Programul OperaţionalSectorial Dezvoltarea Resurselor Umane 200732013, proiect numărulPOSDRU/89/1.5/S/59184 „Performanţă şi excelenţă în cercetarea postdoctorală îndomeniul ştiinţelor economice din România”.384Revista Română de Statistică – Supliment Trim IV/2012

Bibliografie selectivă[1]. Antle, J.M. (1999). Benefits and costs of food safety regulation, Food Policy, vol. 24,no. 6: 605–623.[2]. Barrett, S., Konsynski, B. (1982). Inter-Organization Information Sharing Systems,MIS Quarterly, vol. 6 (special issue): 93-10.[3]. Beulens, A.J.M., Broens, D.F., Folstar P., Hofstede, G.J. (2005). Food safety andtransparency in food chains and networks. Relationships and challenges, Food Control,vol. 16, no. 6: 481-486[4]. Boonstra, A., de Vries, J. (2005). Analyzing inter-organizational systems from a powerand interest perspective. International Journal of Information Management, vol. 25, no.6: 485-501.[5]. Dabbene, F., Gay, P. (2011). Food traceability systems: Performance evaluation andoptimization, Computers and Electronics in Agriculture, vol.75, no. 1: 139-146.[6]. Golden, W., Powell, P. (2004): Inter-organisational Information Systems as Enablersof Organisational Flexibility, Technology Analysis & Strategic Management, vol. 16,no. 3: 299-325.[7]. Hong, I.B. (2002). A new framework for interorganizational systems based on thelinkage of participants’ roles, Information & Management, vol. 39: 261-270.[8]. Karlsen, K.M., Sorensen, C.F., Foras, F., Olsen, P. (2011). Critical criteria whenimplementing electronic chain traceability in a fish supply chain, Food Control, 22 (8):1339-347.[9]. Kim, K.K., Rzoo, S.Y., Jung, M.D. (2011). Inter-organizational information systemsvisibility in buyer-supplier relationships: The case of telecommunication equipmentcomponent manufacturing industry, Omega-International Journal of ManagementScience, vol. 39, no.6: 667-676.[10]. Shah R., Goldstein S.M., Ward P. (2002). Aligning supply chain managementcharacteristics and interorganizational information system types: An exploratory study,IEEE Transactions on Engineering Management, vol. 49, no. 3: 282-292.[11]. Volkoff, O., Yolande, E.C., Newson, E.F.P. (1999). Leading the development andimplementation of collaborative interorganizational systems, Information &Management, vol. 35: 63-75.[12]. *** Regulamentul (CE) nr. 178/2002 al Parlamentului European şi al ConsiliuluiRevista Română de Statistică – Supliment Trim IV/2012 385

Increase of Budget Incomes by Decreasing theDegree of TaxationSenior Lecturer Raluca Andreea MIHALACHE PhDmihalache.andra@gmail.com“Artifex” University of BucharestAbstractIn the present conception, the state budget will further ensure the achievement ofmajor economic and social objectives. We consider that the state budget must play anincreasingly important role in stabilizing the economuy, in parallel to its role of maininstrument for income re-distribution. In conditions in which commercial companies,enterprises and institutions, and economic agents, are freed by the costs of some socialfunctions, the state will have to support the removal of such functions from the budget andprivatization in fields of budgetary concern.Key words: fiscal policy, state budget, tax system, lowering taxation level, fiscalrelaxation policyJEL Classification: N141. Argumente Esenţială este relaţia dintre sistemul de venituri bugetare şi dezvoltareaeconomică. Diminuarea gradului de fiscalitate oferă contribuabililor posibilitatea de afolosi sumele rezultate din reducerea impozitelor pentru dezvoltareeconomică şi, astfel, să sporească veniturile viitoare. Aplicându-se o cotă redusă de impozitare la venituri mai mari, impozitulabsolut cuvenit statului nu se reduce, chiar creşte. Aşadar, diminuareagradului de fiscalitate mediu va trebui să fie însoţită de lărgirea bazei deimpozitare, ca urmare a dezvoltării economiei, a apariţiei şi dezvoltării deactivităţi generatoare de valoare nouă. Sistemul actual de venituri bugetare are suficiente resurse şi posibilităţi,încă neexploatate în întregime, pentru a deveni un instrument eficient,economic şi social al politicii economice.2. Situaţia existentă. ComentariiCa urmare a datelor prelucrate de autor, se obsevă o creştere semnificativă aprodusului intern brut realizat începând cu perioada anului 2000 (creştere de 719,78% lasfârşitul anului 2011 faţă de anul 2000) şi o oscilaţie a presiunii fiscale nominale realizatede la un punct maxim de 21,43% în 1992 la 12,02% în 2011, însă, atingând valoareaminimă în anul 2009 de 9,61%, conform graficului 1.386Revista Română de Statistică – Supliment Trim IV/2012

Grafic 1 – Evoluţia PIB nominal realizat şi a presiunii fiscale nominale realizate în perioada1992 -2011PIB nominal realizatPresiunea fiscală nominală realizată – %30000002500000200000015000001000000500000019921993199419951996199719981999200020012002200320042005200620072008200920102011Se observă o diminuare semnificativă continuă a ratei produsului intern brut realizat[%] şi a ratei veniturilor fiscale nominale [%] începând cu perioada anului 1993 de la232,31%, respectiv 182,89% la 10,71%, respectiv 23,48% în anul 2011; în cursul anului1997 s-a constatat o creştere importantă a acestor două rate, respectiv a ratei produsuluiintern brut realizat de la 50,99% în anul 1996 la 132,21% în anul 1997 şi a ratei veniturilorfiscale nominale de la 40,70% în anul 1996 la 128,56% în anul 1997; însă, începând cu anulimediat următor, 1998, acestea şi-au continuat ritmul de scădere relativ constantă, conformgraficului 2, atingând un nivel negativ în primul an de criză economică 2009, astfel: rataPIB nominal realizat de -2,63% şi rata veniturilor fiscale nominae de -12,66%.Grafic 2 - Evoluţia ratei PIB nominal realizat şi a ratei veniturilor fiscale nominale înperioada 1992 - 2011252015105Rata PIB nominal realizat - % Rata veniturilor fiscale nominale – %0250200150100500-5019921993199419951996199719981999200020012002200320042005200620072008200920102011Revista Română de Statistică – Supliment Trim IV/2012 387

Veniturile fiscale reale sunt aproape constante, pe întreaga perioadă analizată, ceea ceînseamnă că ritmul lor de creştere nu a făcut decât să contracareze inflaţia; venitul fiscalnominal marginal oscilează între 0,515, în 2009 şi 0,060 lei, în 2006, cu o tendinţă cronicăde scădere începând cu anul 1998 înregistrând cea mai mică valoare în anul 2006 de 0,060lei; la nivelul anului 2011 venitul fiscal nominal marginal este de 0,236 lei; totodată, venitulfiscal real marginal are oscilaţii mult mai puternice decât cel nominal, dar ceea ce esteimportant, este faptul că acesta are multe valori negative, însă începând cu valori alepresiunii fiscale mai mari de 17-18%, înregistrează de asemenea căderi mare amplitudine,ceea ce indică, în mod clar, influenţa nefastă a unei presiuni fiscale mari asupra dinamiciireale a încasărilor bugetare; dinamica veniturilor fiscale nominale se stabilizează pentruvalori ale presiunii fiscale reduse până în jurul cifrei de 18%, ceea ce înseamnă că presiuneafiscală poate fi redusă până în jurul acestei valori fără ca încasările bugetare să fie afectatenegativ, aşa cum reiese din graficele 3, 4 şi 5.Grafic 3- Evoluţia venitului fiscal nominal şi real marginal în perioada 1992 - 201110,50-0,5-1-1,5-2-2,519931994Venitul fiscal nominal marginal – lei1995199619971998199920002002200320042005Venitul fiscal real marginal - lei200620072008200920102011Grafic 4 – Evoluţia veniturilor fiscale nominale realizate în funcţie de presiunea fiscală388Revista Română de Statistică – Supliment Trim IV/2012

Grafic 5 – Evoluţia veniturilor fiscale marginale - nominale şi reale - în funcţie depresiunea fiscalăPresiunea fiscală nominală realizată are o tendinţă de scădere permanentă, începând cuanul 1995 când era de 17,27%, atingând o valoare minimă de 9,61% în anul 2009 (cuexcepţia anului 1998 de 16,23% şi a anului 2004 de 12,27%) conform graficului 6; însăîncepând cu anul 2002 aceasta este într-o creştere lentă ajungând în anul 2003 la 11,95% şiîn anul 2004 la 12,27%; în 2005 aceasta înregistrează o scădere ajungând la 11,99%,această scădere justificându-se prin creşterea continuă a PIB nominal realizat într-un ritmmai alert decât creşterea veniturilor fiscale nominale realizate, colectarea acestora din urmălăsând încă de dorit la nivelul anului 2005;În cea mai mare parte a perioadei analizate, elasticitatea veniturilor fiscale înraport cu presiunea fiscală este puternic supraunitară (valori absolute cuprinse între 4 şi 80!), ceea ce indică o relaţie de cauzalitate extrem de puternică între cele două variabilemacroeconomice; aşadar, rezultă că, într-adevăr, presiunea fiscală poate fi o variabilă decomandă macroeconomică foarte importantă, de o mare eficacitate;Grafic 6 – Evoluţia presiunii fiscale reale realizate şi a PIB real realizat în perioada 1992 -20112015105019931994Presiunea fiscală reală realizată – %PIB real realizat19951996199719981999200020012002200320042005200620072008200920102011800070006000500040003000200010000Elasticitatea veniturilor fiscale în raport de presiunea fiscală este pozitivă doar înanii 1995, 1998, 2003, 2004, 2009, 2010 şi 2011conform graficului 7, când o anumităRevista Română de Statistică – Supliment Trim IV/2012 389

creştere a presiunii fiscale medii a putut să aibă drept rezultat o creştere mai accentuată aîncasărilor publice din fiscalitate; în restul perioadei, ea este negativă, ceea ce indică, înmod clar, faptul că o creştere a presiunii fiscale are un efect negativ asupra veniturilorbugetare; este semnificativ şi faptul că această elasticitate scade permanent, pe perioadaanalizată; elasticitatea veniturilor fiscale în raport cu PIB este subunitară (cu aceleaşiexcepţii, anii 1995, 1998, 2003, 2004, 2009, 2010 şi 2011) pe întreaga perioadă analizată,ceea ce indică faptul că lărgirea bazei de impozitare (independent de dinamica presiuniifiscale) nu a avut ca rezultat creşterea corespunzătoare a veniturilor fiscale; explicaţia poateconsta în creşterea evaziunii fiscale sau în motive statistice (Institutul Naţional de Statisticăintroduce în PIB un anumit cuantum de economie subterană, adică PIB creşte dar baza deimpozitare aferentă rămâne aceeaşi, respectiv veniturile fiscale aferente).Grafic 7 – Evoluţia elasticităţii veniturilor fiscale în raport cu PIB şi cu presiunea fiscală în1992-201140200-201993-40-60-80-100Elasticitatea veniturilor fiscale în raport cu PIB – coef.Elasticitatea veniturilor fiscale în raport cu presiunea fiscală – coef.1994199519961997199819992000200120022003200420052006200720082009201020113. Concluzii şi soluţii posibileAvând în vedere valorile elasticităţii veniturilor fiscale în raport cu presiuneafiscală medie, este necesară scăderea acesteia din urmă, pentru a obţine creştericorespunzătoare ale încasărilor fiscale la bugetul de stat.Este necesară determinarea empirică a marjei de variaţie a presiunii fiscale mediicare are impact pozitiv asupra dinamicii veniturilor fiscale, astfel încât să nu se diminuezemai rapid baza de impozitare decât scade presiunea fiscală medie (ceea ce ar avea carezultat scăderea încasărilor fiscale), în situaţia României şi în perspectiva unui termen celpuţin mediu.Bibliografie selectivă:[1]. Mihalache Raluca Andreea. (2010) – „Fundamentarea bugetului de stat din România”,Editura Renaissance, Bucureşti[2]. Mihalache Raluca Andreea. (2012) – „The various possible EU taxes”, CES WorkingPapers, Edited by Centre for European Studies Alexandru Ioan Cuza University of Iasi,vol. VOLUME IV, ISSUE 3A – 2012, Autumn Special Issue, pp. 566390Revista Română de Statistică – Supliment Trim IV/2012

Using the Regression Model to Estimate PensionsProfessor Gheorghe LEPĂDATU PhDcilezbujor@yahoo.com„Dimitrie Cantemir” Christian University, BucharestLecturer Florin Paul Costel LILEA PhDflorin.lilea@gmail.com“Artifex” University of BucharestAna CARP PhDkarp_ana@yahoo.comGeorgeta BARDAŞU PhD Studentgeorgeta.lixandru@yahoo.comAcademy of Economic Studies, BucharestAbstractIn this paper, the authors measure, with the help of a multiple regression model,the links between the value of average social insurance pension, as resultant variable, andas factorial variables, gross average salary, annual inflation ratio and the annual evolutionof GDP. The model is applied with the help of Eviews software, the results thus achievedbeing then interpreted.Key words: multiple regression, Eviews, parameters, gross average salary,annual inflation ratio, GDP variationJEL Classification: C35, C51, J261. Model de regresie pentru analiza valorii punctului de pensie în funcţie devariabile macroeconomiceCuantumul pensiilor depind în mod direct de valoarea punctului de pensie. Aceastăcorelaţie apreciată de unii autori ca fiind o măsură echitabilă exprimă legătura dintre salariişi pensii, fiind apreciat ca un coeficient al nivelului de dezvoltare economică inlcus înformula de calcul al pensiilor. De asemenea, există o posibilă corelaţie între valoareapunctului de pensie şi valoarea produsului intern brut 1 .Funcţia de regresie utilizată este dată de formula:Vpp = f(variatia_Pib)Valoarea previzionată pentru anul 2011 a punctului de pensie se obţine din relaţia:VPP2011 1.213738201VPP201011.5383609*VARPIB2011 71,16842308Conform evoluţiei produsului intern brut pe anul 2010, (-1,3%), valoarea punctuluide pensie ar fi trebuit să fie de 803 lei.1 Constantin Anghelache „Analiza corelaţiei între PIB şi consumul final”, Theoretical and AppliedEconomics, no. 9/2011, pp. 84-93.Revista Română de Statistică – Supliment Trim IV/2012 391

La o creştere al Produsului intern brut cu 2%, valoarea punctului de pensie ar fitrebui să fie 841,33 lei.Valoarea punctului de pensie variază şi în funcţie de rata anuală a inflaţiei şiindicele salariului mediu brut.Potrivit metodei normative, factorii de influenţă pentru creşterea indicatoruluivaloarea punctului de pensie sunt: rata anuală a inflaţiei şi creşterea câştigului salarialmediu brut realizat pe anul precedent. Formal, funcţia de regresie este:Vpp f ( ri, S b)Unde:VPP: Valoarea punctului de pensier : rata anuală a inflaţieiiS b: indicele salariului mediu brut10008006004002000Forecast: VALOREA_PUFActual: VALOREA_PUNCTULUI_DE_PENForecast sample: 1990 2010Adjusted sample: 1991 2010Included observations: 20Root Mean Squared Error 46.62516Mean Absolute Error 20.77673Mean Abs. Percent Error 35.65885Theil Inequality Coefficient 0.068605Bias Proportion 0.055206Variance Proportion 0.009986Covariance Proportion 0.934807-2001992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010VALOREA_PUFValoarea previzionată a varabilei valoarea punctului de pensie VPPValoarea previzionată a valorii punctului de pensie pentru anul n se obţine dinrelaţia:VPP ( 1.087021309 SAl _ brut / SAL_brut 0.01409183679* rata )*VPPnnn1 nn1Acest model de regresie evidenţiază influenţa favorabilă pe care o are creştereasalariilor asupra valorii punctului de pensie2. Utilizarea modelului de regresie în analiza evoluţiei pensiei de asigurărisocialePensia de asigurări sociale de stat se poate analiza în funcţie de rata anuală a înflaţiei şivariaţia PIB, folosind relaţiaPasunde:f ( r , PIB)i392Revista Română de Statistică – Supliment Trim IV/2012

P as : pensia de asigurări sociale de statri: rata anuala a inflaţieiΔPIB: variaţia PIB.Datele pentru analiza variabilei P as sunt cuprinse în Anexa nr. 82.Înlocuind datele din calculul pe baza Eviews, obţinem:PASt1.951515743*PASt 11.009069021*PASt2 0.90 0.04949063598* ratat 3.611231064*Vpib tDin analiza scenariului de bază al evoluţiei variabilelor rezultă că o creştere apensiilor de asigurări sociale de stat este greu de anticipat având în vedere că rata anuală ainflaţiei a înregistrat o scădere continuă după anul 1998-2000, iar ţinta de inflaţie pentruurmătorii ani comunicată de BNR este la nivelul de 2,5-3%. Creşterea PIB-ului înregistratăîn perioada 2000-2008, în anii de criză economică va avea ca scop atingerea nivelului destabilitate economică.Testarea reziduurilor a fost făcută cu metoda Cholesky(Lutkepohl) 2 . Datele suntprezentate în următorul table:VAR Residual Normality TestsOrthogonalization: Cholesky (Lutkepohl)H0: residuals are multivariate normalDate: 07/10/12 Time: 16:38Sample: 1990 2010Included observations: 19Component Skewness Chi-sq df Prob.1 1.028330 3.348634 1 0.0673Joint 3.348634 1 0.0673Component Kurtosis Chi-sq df Prob.1 3.352658 0.098458 1 0.7537Joint 0.098458 1 0.7537Component Jarque-Bera df Prob.1 3.447092 2 0.1784Joint 3.447092 2 0.17842 Elena Bugudui „Regression Models Applied in the Quantitative Economic Analysis”, ScientificResearch Themes/Studies Communications at the National Seminary „Octav Onicescu”, RomanianStatistical Review Trim. 4/2011, pp. 46-47Revista Română de Statistică – Supliment Trim IV/2012 393

Model de analiză a variaţiei pensiei de asigurări sociale (fără agricultori) înfuncţie de rata anuală a înflaţiei, salariul mediu brut şi variaţia anuală a PIBÎn această situaţie se poate utiliza o funcţie de regresie liniară multiplă de forma:Pas f ( ri, S b,PIB),unde:P as : pensia de asigurări socialer : rata inflaţieiiS b: salariul mediu brut PIB : variaţia anuală a PIBEvoluţia pensiilor de asigurări sociale de stat este în strânsă legătură cu indicatorulcare măsoară creşterea anuală a preţurilor de consum, factorul de dezvoltare economică şisalariul mediu brut care reprezintă baza contribuţiilor.Din analiza seriei de date aferentă perioadei 1990-2010 a rezultat că mediavariabilei dependente, care se regăseşte în Anexa nr. 84, ce cuprinde statisticile descriptiveale variabilelor, s-a situat la o valoare de 201,01 lei. Seria de date reflectă un procesinflaţionist accentuat, care a avut ca efect trecerea la salarii denominate începând cu 1 iulie2005, prelucrare care a fost necesară şi asupra seriilor de date pentru a asigura omogenitateadatelor.Coeficienţii matricii de corelaţie arată că inflaţia a avut o influenţă negativă asupracreşterii pensiei de asigurări sociale şi asupra creşterii salariilor. Între variabila dependentăpensia de asigurări sociale de stat şi variabila independentă salariul mediu brut există olegătură directă. Creşterea economică măsurată prin variaţia anuală a PIB-ului are oinfluenţă directă asupra pensiilor. Datele sunt sintetizate în tabelul nr. 1.Tabelul nr. 1. Date de analiză a pensiei de asigurări socialeMatriceacorelaţiedePENSIE_DE_ASIG_SOCIALERATA_ANUALA_INFLATIESALARIU_BRUTVARIATIA_ANUALA_A_PIBPENSIE_DE_ASIG_SOCIALE 1.000000 -0.536892 0.987842 0.108669RATA_ANUALA_INFLATIE -0.536892 1.000000 -0.579700 -0.508374SALARIU_BRUT 0.987842 -0.579700 1.000000 0.204394VARIATIA_ANUALA_A_PIB 0.108669 -0.508374 0.204394 1.000000Intensitatea legăturii dintre variabile este măsurată prin coeficienţii matricii decovarianţă, iar constatarea că salariul mediu brut are cea mai mare influenţă asupravariabilei pensia de asigurări sociale este reiterată de valoarea coeficientului care este de158.492.394Revista Română de Statistică – Supliment Trim IV/2012

Tabelul nr. 2. Date de analiză a pensiei de asigurări socialeMatriceaPENSIE_DE_de ASIG_SOCIARATA_ANUALA_ SALARIU_BRcovarianţă LEINFLATIE UTVARIATIA_ANUALA_A_PIBPENSIE_DE_ASIG_SOCIALE 60131.78 -9791.833 158492.0 161.0651RATA_ANUALA_INFLATIE -9791.833 5531.601 -28209.60 -228.5353SALARIU_BRUT 158492.0 -28209.60 428091.0 808.3171VARIATIA_ANUALA_A_PIB 161.0651 -228.5353 808.3171 36.53337Pentru a estima variabila pensia medie de asigurări sociale am utilizat metodaestimării prin vectorul de autoregresie. Coeficienţii R² şi R² ajustat au valorile 0,9954 şirespectiv de 0,9941, de unde rezultă că variabila pensia medie de asigurări sociale estecorect estimată. Un alt test econometric utilizat a fost Testul egalităţii faţă de media serieide date, datele fiind sintetizate în tabelul următor:Test for Equality of Means Between SeriesDate: 07/10/12 Time: 19:58Sample: 1990 2010Included observations: 21Methoddf Value ProbabilityAnova F-statistic (3, 80) 11.14728 0.0000Analysis of VarianceSource of Variation df Sum of Sq. Mean Sq.Between 3 4334734. 1444911.Within 80 10369610 129620.1Total 83 14704343 177160.8Category StatisticsRevista Română de Statistică – Supliment Trim IV/2012 395

Std. Err.Variable Count Mean Std. Dev. of MeanPENSIE_DE_ASIG_SOCIALE 21 201.0148 251.2735 54.83237RATA_ANUALA_INFLATIE 21 60.91095 76.21142 16.63070SALARIU_BRUT 21 584.8448 670.4443 146.3029VARIATIA_ANUALA_A_PIB 21 1.158571 6.193548 1.351543All 84 211.9823 420.9047 45.92447Datele rezultate din model conduc la aceleaşi concluzii, variabilele independentesalariul mediu brut, rata anuală a inflaţiei şi variaţia anuală a PIB influenţează creştereapensiei medii de asigurări sociale, datele sunt prezentate în tabelul următor:Dependent Variable: PENSIE_DE_ASIG_SOCIALEMethod: Least SquaresDate: 07/10/12 Time: 19:45Sample: 1990 2010Included observations: 21Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.RATA_ANUALA_INFLATIE -0.014209 0.138172 -0.102838 0.9193SALARIU_BRUT 0.376882 0.013817 27.27648 0.0000VARIATIA_ANUALA_A_PIB -4.018852 1.415255 -2.839665 0.0113C -13.88091 16.90742 -0.820995 0.4230R-squared 0.984913 Mean dependent var 201.0148Adjusted R-squared 0.982251 S.D. dependent var 251.2735S.E. of regression 33.47605 Akaike info criterion 10.02918Sum squared resid 19050.98 Schwarz criterion 10.22814Log likelihood -101.3064 F-statistic 369.9403Durbin-Watson stat 0.711858 Prob(F-statistic) 0.000000Rezultă că influenţa decisivă aupra creşterii pensiei medii de asigurări sociale o arecreşterea salariului mediu brut. La o creştere cu 100 lei a salariului mediu brut rezultă ocreştere a pensiei medii de asigurări sociale de stat cu 37 lei.Deşi acest rezultat a fost obţinut din seriile de date 1990-2010 şi având în vedererezultatele analizei statistice complexe din această lucrare potrivit cărora în ultimii ani aiperioadei analizate, salariul mediu real a crescut mai puţin decât pensia medie reală, amprocedat la identificarea altor corelaţii pornind de la premiza că acumularea şi distribuirea(consumul resurselor) trebuie să urmeze o relaţie de echilibru.Pensia de asigurări sociale (fără agricultori) poate fi analizată, utilizând modelul deregresie şi în funcţie de numărul de salariaţi, salariul mediu brut şi cota contribuţiilor.Modelul de analiză este de forma:396Revista Română de Statistică – Supliment Trim IV/2012

Pas f ( N,S b , CC), undeN: numărul de salariaţiS b: salariul mediu brutCC: cota contribuţiilorUn alt aspect care necesită un răspuns este în ce măsură numărul de salariaţiinfluenţează creşterea pensiei medii de asigurări sociale. Masa contribuţiilor depinde desalariul mediu brut realizat dar şi de numărul de contribuabili care sunt în principalsalariaţii. Am estimat variabila pensia medie de asigurări sociale în funcţie de numărul desalariaţi, salariul mediu brut şi cota contribuţiilor, datele fiind sintetizate mai jos 3 :Estimation Proc:===============================LS 1 2 PENSIE_DE_ASIG_SOCIALE @ SALARIATI SALARIU_BRUT COTA CVAR Model:===============================PENSIE_DE_ASIG_SOCIALE = C(1,1)*PENSIE_DE_ASIG_SOCIALE(-1) +C(1,2)*PENSIE_DE_ASIG_SOCIALE(-2) + C(1,3)*SALARIATI +C(1,4)*SALARIU_BRUT + C(1,5)*COTA + C(1,6)VAR Model - Substituted Coefficients:===============================PENSIE_DE_ASIG_SOCIALE = 1.185317713*PENSIE_DE_ASIG_SOCIALE(-1) -0.7761288191*PENSIE_DE_ASIG_SOCIALE(-2) + 0.004904573108*SALARIATI +0.2006152034*SALARIU_BRUT - 1.561113829*COTA + 7.622033256Modelul de regresie evidenţiază următoarele: Variabila numărul de salariaţi influenţează în mod direct creşterea pensieimedii de asigurări sociale Scăderea cotei contribuţiilor are un efect favorabil asupra creşterii pensieide asigurări sociale.Modelul de regresie utilizat în analiza variaţiei pensiei de asigurări sociale (fărăagricultori) în funcţie de numărul de salariaţi, salariul mediu brut este de forma:Pas f ( NS,S b ) , undeNS: numărul de salariaţiS b: salariul mediu brutNumărul de salariaţi şi salariul mediu brut sunt variabilele directe care determinămasa totală a contribuţiilor.3 Anghelache, C., Bugudui, E., Lilea, F.P.C- „Evaluarea legăturilor dintre indicatorii proprietățiiutilizând metoda regresiei multiple”, Scientific Research Themes/Studies Communications at theNational Seminary „Octav Onicescu”, Romanian Statistical Review Trim. 3/2012, pp. 206-212Revista Română de Statistică – Supliment Trim IV/2012 397

Estimarea variabilei dependente pensia de asigurări sociale în funcţie devariabilele numărul de salariaţi şi salariul mediu brut a condus la rezultatele din Anexa nr.89.Cele două variabile, numărul de salariaţi şi salariul mediu brut au o influenţădirectă asupra creşterii pensiei medii de asigurări sociale.3. Model de regresie pentru analiza variaţiei variabilei salariul mediu brutDin modelele de regresie 4 pentru estimarea pensiilor a rezultat faptul că salariulbrut reprezintă factorul principal şi premiza creşterii pensiilor. De aceea este necesarăestimarea salariului mediu brut şi a salariului minim pe economie.Perioada analizată pentru această evoluţie este din aprilie 2001 şi până îndecembrie 2010, deoarece este perioada pentru care se aplică actuala formulă şi metodă decalcul a beneficiilor pe baza punctajului mediu anual.2400Evolutia salariului mediu brut in Romania200016001200800400010 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110martie 2001-decembrie 2010Salariul mediu brutEvoluţia salariului mediu brut pe economie în perioada 2001-2010,Sursa datelor:INSSEReprezentarea grafică a variabilei salariul mediu realizată pe baza seriilor de datelunare reflectă o sezonalitate şi o evoluţie cu un trend crescător, dar cu o creştere lentă lanivelul anilor 2008-2010. Datele de analiză, utilizând modelul autoregresiv al variabileisalariul mediu brut, de forma:SAL = 0.8304981619*SAL(-1) + 0.1685991402*SAL(-2) + 17.36710215Existenţa legăturii liniare dintre indicatori şi intensitatea legăturii este testată cuajutorul coeficientului de determinaţie multiplu, R² şi a coeficientului de determinaţie R²adjusted. Ambii coeficienţi au valori apropiate de 1, respectiv 0,989293 şi 0,989103, ceea4 Anghelache, G.V., Anghelache, C. ,Prodan, L., Dumitrescu, D., Soare, D.V. „Elemente teoreticeprivind utilizarea modelului econometric de regresie multifactorială”, Scientific ResearchThemes/Studies Communications at the National Seminary „Octav Onicescu”, Romanian StatisticalReview Trim. 3/2012, pp. 221-231398Revista Română de Statistică – Supliment Trim IV/2012

ce ne conduce la concluzia că în contextul ANOVA variaţia din datele originale esteexplicată de model.Prin rezolvarea modelului prin metoda dinamică deterministă de simulare s-aobţinut un scenariu de bază al evoluţiei salariului mediu brut.Testele econometrice asupra seriei reziduurilor au fost de tip Group unit root test.Valoarea previzionată a salariului mediu brut pentru anul 2011 se obţine dinrelaţia:SAL2011 0.8304981619 SAL2010 0.1685991402* SAL200917.36710215Modelul autoregresiv poate fi utilizat şi pentru estimarea salariului mediu brut înfuncţie de IPC.Salariile brute realizate de asiguraţi reprezintă baza de calcul a contribuţiei laasigurările sociale. Estimarea pensiilor şi mai ales a posibilităţilor de actualizare trebuie săţină cont de evoluţia salariilor din economia naţională.Salariile negociate în cadrul Contractelor Colective de Muncă depind deposibilităţile financiare ale angajatorilor, dar şi de evoluţia indicelui preţurilor de consum.Estimarea varibilei salariul brut în funcţie de variabila independentă IPC este datăde ecuaţia modelului de regresie.În cazul acestui model autoregresiv, coeficientul de determinaţie multiplu, R² şicoeficientul de determinaţie R² ajustat, iau valorile 0.989640 şi 0.989362, ceea ce neconduce la concluzia că variaţia este directă şi puternică.La nivelul anului 2009, salariul mediu brut a avut valoarea de 1889 lei. În anul2010, creşterea salarială medie anuală a fost cu 2,505% faţă de anul precedent, iar mediasalariului brut a fost de 1937 lei.Primul model exprimă mai bine evoluţia viitoare a salariului mediu brut, sumareziduurilor fiind mai mică. Creşterea salariului mediu brut poate fi estimată la 1944 lei înanul 2011, pe baza primului model, ceea ce se situează în limitele unui procent de 1%, ceeace înseamnă că şansele de actualizare ale pensiilor sunt reduse întrucât baza contribuţiiloreste relativ apropiată de baza contribuţiilor din anul 2010, iar creşterea pensiilor pe seamainflaţiei este nesustenabilă din punct de vedere economic.Bibliografie selectivă[1]. Anghelache, C., (2008) - „Tratat de statistică teoretică şi economică”, EdituraEconomică, Bucureşti[2]. Anghelache, C., Lilea, F.P.C., (2012) - „Econometrie”, Editura Artifex, Bucureşti[3]. Andrei, T., Stancu, S., Iacob A.I., Tusa, E., - „Introducere în econometrie utilizândEviews”, Editura Economică, Bucureşti[4]. Thomas, R.L. – “Modern econometrics – an introduction”, Editura „Financial Times –Prentice Hall”, 1997Revista Română de Statistică – Supliment Trim IV/2012 399

Modeling a Monitor System for Traceability ofSunflower OilSenior Lecturer Ionut ANICA-POPA PhDionut.anica@gmail.comAcademy of Economic Studies, BucharestAbstractThe food safety and quality represents one of the main concerns of governments,producers and consumers therefore were developed and implemented a set of national andinternational standards and regulation. One of the key concepts of those standards andregulation is about food traceability. This paper will present the main approachesregarding the concept of food traceability and will propose a conceptual model for aninformation system for monitoring traceability of the sunflower oil from farmers tillwholesalers. Conclusions of the research are discussed.Key words: information system, food traceability, food safetyJEL Classification: L86IntroducereSiguranţa produselor alimentare reprezintă una dintre preocupările majore aleguvernelor, producătorilor şi consumatorilor, acest fapt datorându-se şi unor evenimente şiscandaluri din domeniul industriei alimentare (criza bovine spongiform encephalopathy –BSE din Regatul Unit, infecţiile cu E.coli din Germania, scandalul dioxinei etc.), în acestsens fiind elaborate o serie de regulamente şi standarde, la nivel naţional sau internaţional,în scopul certificării faptului că produsele alimentare îndeplinesc întotdeauna criteriile decalitate specificate au fost (Antle, 1999). Colaborarea dintre agenţii economici şiorganismele guvernamentale s-a concretizat în elaborarea, modificarea, adoptarea şiimplementarea de regulamente şi standarde privind siguranţa produselor alimentare (Pintoet al., 2007), fiind vizaţi principalii actori implicaţi în cadrul lanţului de producţie,procesare şi distribuţie.Unul dintre elementele cel mai frecvent întâlnit în standardele şi regulamentelereferitoare la siguranţa produselor alimentare se referă la trasabilitatea produselor, iarpentru a monitorizarea acesteia este necesară utilizarea de sisteme de trasabilitate capabilesă achiziţioneze, stocheze şi prelucreze date în scopul transmiterii de informaţii consistente,complete şi la timp referitoare la produsele alimentare aflate pe lanţul de producţie,procesare şi distribuţie (Regattieri et al., 2007). Pentru a proiecta, realiza şi implementaastfel de sisteme este necesar ca actori implicaţi în cadrul lanţului de producţie, procesare şidistribuţie să schimbe şi să partajeze date şi informaţii, să se coordoneze în scopuloptimizării managementului riscurilor privind siguranţa produselor alimentare, cu altecuvinte flexibilitatea, adaptabilitatea şi cooperarea să reprezinte atributele carecaracterizează fiecare organizaţie modernă care activează în acest sector de activitate(Gunasekaran et al., 2005).400Revista Română de Statistică – Supliment Trim IV/2012

Trasabilitatea şi siguranţa produselor alimentareBeulens et al. (2005) consideră că dorinţa consumatorilor ca produsele alimentaresă fie garantate din punct de vedere al siguranţei alimentare şi să conţină informaţii care săcertifice acest aspect a generat ca una dintre preocupările majore ale actorilor implicaţi încadrul lanţului de producţie, procesare şi distribuţie: fermieri, producători, procesatori,vânzători en-gros şi vânzători en-detail (Thakur et al., 2011), să se refere la siguranţa şicalitatea produselor alimentare.Din punct de vedere legislativ, la nivelul UE, conform articolului 2 dinRegulamentul (CE) nr. 178/2002 al Parlamentului European și al Consiliului, prin "produsalimentar" (sau "aliment") se înţelege „orice substanță sau produs, indiferent dacă esteprelucrat, parțial prelucrat sau neprelucrat, destinat sau prevăzut în mod rezonabil a fiingerat de oameni. «Produsele alimentare» includ băuturile, guma de mestecat și oricesubstanță, inclusiv apa, încorporată în mod intenționat în produse alimentare în timpulproducerii, preparării sau tratării lor”. În cadrul aceluiaşi document, trasabilitateaproduselor alimentare este definită ca reprezentând „capacitatea de a depista și a urmărianumite produse alimentare, hrană pentru animale, un animal de la care se obțin produsealimentare sau o substanță destinată încorporării sau care este de așteptat să fie încorporatăîn anumite produse alimentare sau hrană pentru animale, pe parcursul tuturor etapelor deproducție, prelucrare și distribuție”.Un sistem de monitorizare a trasabilităţii trebuie să permită o jurnalizarea exactă aistoricului şi localizărilor avute de un produs alimentar pe întreg lanţul producţie, procesare,distribuţie (Dabbene şi Gay, 2011) în vederea identificării loturilor de produse alimentarecare sunt periculoase pentru consumul uman şi a retragerii de pe piaţă. Această abordarepermite identificarea locului şi factorilor care au determinat apariţia problemei în scopulprevenirii apariţiei a noi probleme similare.Arienzo et al. (2008) consideră că sistemele de monitorizare a trasabilităţiiproduselor alimentare pot fi structurate în trei categorii:(i) sisteme de trasabilitate interne – asigură o monitorizare a trasabilităţii în interiorulfiecărui actor din lanţul producţie, procesare, distribuţie;(ii) sisteme de trasabilitate „un pas înainte, un pas după” – reprezintă o extindere asistemelor de trasabilitate interne, fiecare sistemele informaţionale ale fiecărei organizaţiistocând şi date referitoare la provenienţa materiilor prime, respectiv la clienţii care auachiziţionat produsele finite;(iii) sisteme de trasabilitate pe filieră – reprezintă un sistem informaţional interorganizaţionalcare asigură monitorizarea trasabilităţii produselor alimentare de la fermierpână la distribuitor.Existenţa unui sistem de trasabilitate internă este o condiţie fundamentală pentruproiectarea, dezvoltarea şi implementarea oricărui alt tip de sistem de trasabilitate (Karlsenet al., 2011).Modelarea unui sistem de monitorizare a trasabilităţii uleiului obţinut dinfloarea soareluiUn sistem de monitorizare a trasabilităţii uleiului obţinut din floarea soareluitrebuie să înregistreze, stocheze şi proceseze toate evenimentele reprezentative care apar încadrul lanţului de producţie, procesare şi distribuţie, de la operaţiunea de semănare a floriisoarelui, operaţiunile de realizare a tratamentelor, procesarea seminţelor şi a uleiului brut,până la distribuţia către consumatorul final. În urma etapei de analiză a proceselordesfăşurate pe filiera obţinerii uleiului din floarea soarelui au fost identificate o serie deelemente definitorii, prezentate în mod sintetic în continuare.Revista Română de Statistică – Supliment Trim IV/2012 401

Principalii agenţi economici implicaţi pot fi grupaţi în următoarele categorii: (a)fermieri - cultivatori de floarea soarelui, (b) distribuitori de seminţe de floarea soarelui –agenţi economici care achiziţionează seminţe de floarea soarelui de la fermieri, (c)procesatori de seminţe de floarea soarelui, (d) procesatori de ulei de floarea soarelui, (e)îmbuteliatori de ulei de floarea soarelui sau (f) distribuitori de ulei de floarea soarelui. Esteimportant de menţionat că oricare dintre agenţii economici poate să aparţină unui grup defirme, grup care la rândul său poate să fie implicat în activităţile de cultivare, procesare,îmbuteliere sau distribuire. Fiecare dintre aceste categorii deţine una sau mai multe unităţide producţie specifice: fermierii deţin plantaţii, distribuitorii de cereale deţin silozuri,procesatorii de seminţe de floarea soarelui deţin unităţi de procesare a seminţelor de floareasoarelui, procesatorii de ulei de floarea soarelui deţin unităţi de procesare a uleiului defloarea soarelui, îmbuteliatorii de ulei de floarea soarelui deţin unităţi de îmbuteliere auleiului de floarea soarelui, iar distribuitorii de ulei de floarea soarelui deţin unităţi dedistribuţie a uleiului de floarea soarelui.Figura 2 Secvenţă din modelul conceptual al datelor pentru monitorizarea trasabilităţiiuleiului obţinut din floarea soareluiÎntre unităţile de producţie specifice fiecărei categorii există achiziţii sautransferuri de materii prime. Procesatorii de seminţe de floarea soarelui pot achiziţiona402Revista Română de Statistică – Supliment Trim IV/2012

direct de la fermieri, de la distribuitorii de cereale sau de la alţi procesatori. În urmaprocesării seminţelor de floarea soarelui se obţine ulei brut şi o serie de produse secundarecare pot fi utilizate în alte sectoare de activitate. Procesatorii de ulei achiziţionează ulei brutde la procesatorii de seminţe sau de la alţi procesatori de ulei brut, iar în urma procesării seobţine uleiul rafinat care va fi îmbuteliat şi apoi trimis către distribuitori sau HoReCa(hoteluri / restaurante / cafenele). Figura 1 prezintă o secvenţa din modelul conceptual aldatelor pentru monitorizarea trasabilităţii uleiului obţinut din floarea soarelui.ConcluziiÎn vederea realizării unui sistem care să permită o monitorizare eficientă atrasabilităţii filiera obţinerii uleiului din floarea soarelui este necesar ca toţi actorii implicaţipe lanţul producţie, procesare, distribuţie să conlucreze şi să coopereze în vederea partajăriidatelor pe care trebuie să le transmită sau să le preia din/în propriile sisteme informaţionale.De asemenea, pentru minimizarea îngrijorările consumatorului final referitoare lacalitatea produselor alimentare achiziţionate şi de creştere a încrederii consumatorului finalîn produsele furnizate de industria agroalimentară, este recomandabilă dezvoltarea şiimplementarea de sisteme de trasabilitate pe întreaga filieră a produsului alimentar, care săincludă şi o componentă de urmărire on-line a tuturor etapelor de producţie, prelucrare şidistribuţie prin care a trecut produsul până a fost achiziţionat.AcknowledgementAceastă lucrare a fost cofinanţată din Fondul Social European, prin Programul OperaţionalSectorial Dezvoltarea Resurselor Umane 200732013, proiect numărulPOSDRU/89/1.5/S/59184 „Performanţă şi excelenţă în cercetarea postdoctorală îndomeniul ştiinţelor economice din România”.Bibliografie selectivă[1]. Antle, J.M. (1999). „Benefits and costs of food safety regulation”, Food Policy, vol.24, no. 6: 605–623.[2]. Arienzo, A., Coff,, C., Barling, D. (2008). „The European Union and the Regulation ofFood Traceability: From Risk Management to Informed Choice?”, Ethical Traceabilityand Communicating Food, Springer Science +, 23-42.[3]. Beulens, A.J.M., Broens, D.F., Folstar P., Hofstede, G.J. (2005). “Food safety andtransparency in food chains and networks. Relationships and challenges”, FoodControl, vol. 16, no. 6: 481-486.[4]. Dabbene, F., Gay, P. (2011). Food traceability systems: Performance evaluation andoptimization, Computers and Electronics in Agriculture, vol.75, no. 1: 139-146.[5]. Karlsen, K.M., Sorensen, C.F., Foras, F., Olsen, P. (2011). Critical criteria whenimplementing electronic chain traceability in a fish supply chain, Food Control, 22 (8),1339-347.[6]. Pinto, D.B., Castro, I., Vicente, A.A. (2006). “The use of TIC’s as a managing tool fortraceability in the food industry”, Food Research International, vol. 39, no. 7: 772–781.[7]. Regattieri, A., Gamberi, M., Manzini, R. (2007) Traceability of food products: Generalframework and experimental evidence, Journal of Food Engineering, vol. 81, no. 2:347–356.[8]. Thakur, M., Sørensen, C.F., Bjørnson, F.O., Forås, E., Hurburgh, C.R. (2011),“Managing food traceability information using EPCIS framework”, Journal of FoodEngineering, vol. 103, no. 4: 417–433.[9]. Gunasekaran, A., Williams, H. J., McGaughey, R. E. (2005). Performancemeasurement and costing system in new enterprise. Technovatio. Vol. 25, pp: 523-533.[10]. *** Regulamentul (CE) nr. 178/2002 al Parlamentului European şi al ConsiliuluiRevista Română de Statistică – Supliment Trim IV/2012 403

Algorithm-based Pension CalculationProfessor Radu Titus MARINESCU PhDradu_titus_marinescu@yahoo.comSenior Lecturer Alexandru MANOLE PhDalexandru.manole@gmail.com“Artifex” University of BucharestAna ANTON CARP PhDkarp_ana@yahoo.comGeorgeta BARDAŞU PhD Studentgeorgeta.lixandru@yahoo.comAcademy of Economic Studies, BucharestAbstractStarting 1.04.2001, in the Romanian Public Pensions System the pensioncalculation method has changed. The calculation formula was modified. If until thenpersons who applied for pension chose a favorable calculation base in the last ten years, ofwhich only five consecutive years were taken into, since 2001 the whole career of theemployee is accounted for establishing its pension. The average of one’s own realizedincome does not represent anything anymore.Key words: pensions, social insurances, correlation, pension pointJEL Classification: J26Salariul mediu prognozat este utilizat ca reper atât la colectarea contribuţiilor prinmetoda testării veniturilor în raport de 5 salariii medii brute prognozate (în 2011) , cât şi larepartizarea beneficiilor din pensii prin indicatorul valoarea punctului de pensie.La data implementării noii metode de calcul, pentru anul 2001 s-a estimat unpunctaj mediu anual al noului pensionar care urma să intre în rândul beneficiarilor depensii. Acest punctaj a fost estimat ca fiind de 1,15074 puncte, şi care care reprezintăpunctajul mediu anual al noilor pensionari pentru limită de vârstă şi vechime integrală.În perioada 2002-2004 s-a efectuat recorelarea pensiilor categoriilor de beneficiaripensionate înainte de 1.04.2001 cu cele stabilite după această dată. Efectul final alprocesului de recorelare a fost acela de a asigura pensionarilor de limită de vârstă cuvechime integrală un raport pensie medie/salariu mediu brut de 44,03% în luna decembrie2003. Scopul recorelării a fost atenuarea decalajelor dintre pensii în funcţie de anulînscrierii la pensie, în special pentru pensiile vechi.Punctajul mediu anual estimat exprimă profilul unui salariat mediu care pe totparcursul activităţii în muncă a realizat un salariu mediu brut, iar stagiul lui complet decotizare coincide cu stagiul standard de cotizare. Aceasta înseamnă că până la recalculareadin anul 2005 pensionarii înscrişi la pensie în baza legislaţiei anterioare aveau un punctajmediu anual ajustat prin recorelare până la punctajul mediu anual estimat.Datele de intrare în model sunt punctajul mediu anual estimat la 1.04.2001 şivaloarea punctului de pensie pe seria de date 2001-2010. Fie datele din tabelul de mai jos:404Revista Română de Statistică – Supliment Trim IV/2012

TabelPensii recorelatePunctajmediuestimat- LIMITA DE VARSTA CU VECHIME COMPLETA 1.15074anual- LIMITA DE VARSTA VECHIME INCOMPLETA 0.60711- INVALIDITATE GRADUL I 0.91393- INVALIDITATE GRADUL II 0.75325- INVALIDITATE GRADUL III 0.49108- PENSII URMASI -1 URMAS 0.40538- 2 URMASI 0.59629- 3 SAU MAI MULTI URMASI 0.74884Întrucât în perioada 1.04.2001-31.12.2005 pensiile vechi au fost recorelate şirecalculate, la 31.12.2005 pensiile trebuiau să reflecte aceeaşi formulă de calcul pentru toţipensionarii şi pentru toate categoriile de pensii (cu excepţia ajutoarelor).Încheierea procesului de recalculare, teoretic realizată la 1.12.2005, face caîncepând cu 1.12.2005 singurul indicator statistic care trebuie să ţină pasul cu inflaţia estevaloarea punctului de pensie.Corelaţia cu salariul mediu brut se face prin indicatorul ( Pij)k, care reprezintăpunctajul realizat de o persoană k în luna j din anul i, unde i aparţine intervalului (S m , S k ),S m este stagiul minim de cotizare şi S k este stagiul complet de cotizare realizat de persoanak:( Wij)k( Pij)kWijS t = stagiul standard de cotizareP i = punctajul realizat de o persoană în anul i( Wij)k salariile brute realizate de o persoană k în luna j din anul I; W ij = salariul mediubrut pe economie în luna j din anul I; P k = punctajul mediu anual realizat de o persoană k.P k este un indicator care stă la baza redistribuirii resurselor şi calcularea dreptului depensie în România.Din punct de vedere statistic, P k arată de câte ori salariul mediu anual al persoaneieste mai mare decât salariul mediu brut realizat în România pe întregul stagiu de cotizarerealizat de pensionar în Sistemul de asigurări sociale.Modelul de asigurări sociale din România se caracterizează astfel :Are o schemă de bază, publică, de tip redistributiv cu beneficii definiteUtilizează parametrii standard Vârsta standard de pensionare şi Stagiulstandard de cotizare pe baza principiului generaţiilor; Parametrii suntstabiliţi prin lege;Revista Română de Statistică – Supliment Trim IV/2012 405

Are o formulă de calcul a beneficiilor care se aplică printr-un algoritm;Modalitatea de ajustare 1 a pensiilor are la bază două criterii: un indicator dedezvoltare economică şi un coeficient de ajustare la inflaţie.Formula de calcul a pensiilor are la bază un algoritm de calcul care utilizeazăurmătoarele notaţii şi se defăşoară în cinci etape de calcul.Notaţiile folosite au următoarele semnificaţii: PV k = cuantumul pensiei uneipersoane k şi Valp= valoarea punctului de pensie stabilit prin Legea bugetului asigurărilorsociale.Etapa nr.1 : Calculul punctajelor anuale ca medie a punctajelor lunare12 P1Se calculează ( Pij)kşi jijPi, j = 1 , 1212Etapa nr.2: Calcularea punctajelor pentru contribuţia la pensia suplimentarăPentru perioada cuprinsă între 1.01.1967 şi 01.04.2001, ( Pij)keste majorat cu unprocent între 13% şi 22%, pentru contribuţia la pensia suplimentară, care se calculeazăastfel:12 P 1 jijijPsi12unde ij coeficientul de majorare al punctajelor lunare P ij.nEtapa nr.3: Calcularea punctajului mediu anual ( P k )Se calculează P nk ( P P ) / S ,, unde i 1,Sk, S t este stagiul standard de cotizare, care creşte progresiv şi este stabilitprin lege, specific anului naşterii fiecărei generaţii.Etapa nr.4: Punctaj suplimentar acordat persoanelor cu grupe de muncăÎncepând cu decembrie 2008, la suma punctelor totale realizate se adaugă omajorare pgde 25% sau 50% la punctajele lunare realizate dacă persoana a desfăşuratactivităţi încadrate în condiţii deosebite (grupa a II-a de muncă) sau în condiţii speciale(grupa I de muncă) în perioadele de cotizare până la 1.04.2001.( Pij)k25%(50%)pg( ) / St12ist1 Anghelache, C., Bugudui, E., Lilea, F.P.C- „Evaluarea legăturilor dintre indicatorii proprietățiiutilizând metoda regresiei multiple”, Scientific Research Themes/Studies Communications at theNational Seminary „Octav Onicescu”, Romanian Statistical Review Trim. 3/2012, pp. 206-212406Revista Română de Statistică – Supliment Trim IV/2012

Etapa nr.5 Determinarea cuantumului pensiei pe baza formulelor următoarePV P * ValkkpPV ( P p ) * ValkkgpPentru depăşirea stagiilor de cotizare în cazul necumulării pensiei cu salariu seacordă o bonificaţie a punctajelor anuale calculate la etapa nr.1, care este cu 0,5%/lună.Din studiile efectuate prin aplicarea algoritmului de calcul actual a rezultat faptulcă drepturi de pensii egale sunt acordate persoanelor cu contribuţii diferite, întrucâtpunctaje medii anuale egale rezultă dintr-o varietate de combinaţii ale salariilor brute (nete)realizate pe parcursul întregii cariere .Bibliografie selectivă[1]. Allen, R., QC (2011) - „Evolution of ECJ case law on age discrimination”,http://www.cloisters.com/news-pdf-downloads/robin-allen-qc-evolution-of-ecj-caselaw-march-2011.pdf[2]. Anghelache, C., (2008) - „Tratat de statistică teoretică şi economică”, EdituraEconomică, Bucureşti[3]. Anghelache, C., Lilea, F.P.C., (2012) - „Econometrie”, Editura Artifex, Bucureşti[4]. Anton, Carp, A., Carp, C. (2009) - „The Evolution of Romania’s Social InsuranceRedistribution System”, “2nd International Conference on Quantitative and QualitativeMethodologies in the Economic and Administrative Sciences, QMEAS 2009”, Publicatîn “Procedings of Concerence”, vol. ISBN: 978-960-98739-0-1, ISSN: 1791-8499,Clasa A, pp.52-60, ‏//׃http www.google.booksRevista Română de Statistică – Supliment Trim IV/2012 407

Adaptation of the Statistical System to theRequirements of Modern Society in EuropeanContextProfessor Ion PÂRŢACHI PhDipartachi@ase.mdAcademy of Economic Studies of Moldavia – ChișinăuSenior Lecturer Emanuela IONESCU PhDemiionescu03@yahoo.comLecturer Florin Paul Costel LILEA PhDflorin.lilea@gmail.com“Artifex” University of BucharestOleg CARA PhD Studentoleg.cara@yahoo.comAbstractDuring the adaptation period to the conditions of the market economy, in theperspective of European integration, statistics entered into a process of reformation andconvergence of its various branches or developments. Progresses achieved are on the lineof knowledge accumulation, restructuring and integration of official statistics through theimplementation of a new vision on statistics and of some new knowledge methods,intensification of dialogue between the official and academic statistics, elaboration offundamental works, to develop the application filed of statistics and private initiatives forstatistical research etc.Key words: statistics, system, improvement, dialog, initiativeJEL Classification: C10, C18Provocările faţă de sistemul statistic pe plan naţional şi internaţional pun sarcinimajore de adaptare la necesităţile societăţii erudite, în perioada globalizării. Complexitateaşi amploarea cercetării statistice fac imperios necesară perfecţionarea continuă a metodelorde observare, prelucrare, analiză, interpretare statistică și diseminare a datelor.“În acelaşitimp, dezvoltarea metodelor statistice este strâns legată de progresele înregistrate de teoriaprobabilităţilor şi statistica matematică, precum şi de cele din domeniul informaticiieconomice.Oficiul naţional de statistică(ONS), inclusiv din ţara noastră constituie centrulmetodologic şi organizatoric de producere şi diseminare a statisticilor oficiale pentrusatisfacerea nevoilor informaţionale ale utilizatorilor interni, dar şi celor de peste hotare cudate statistice relevante, fiabile, comparabile la nivel internaţional. În activitatea sa, ONStrebuie să ţină cont atât de solicitările consumatorilor din ţară, cadrul legislativ naţional, darşi de obligaţiile internaţionale ale statului ca urmare a sarcinilor şi responsabilităţilorasumate în calitatea sa de membru al organismelor internaţionale, fiind asigurată elaborareaşi furnizarea statisticilor comparabile la nivel mondial.408Revista Română de Statistică – Supliment Trim IV/2012

Deşi statisticile oficiale au fost reprezentate tradiţional preponderent prinstatisticile descriptive, în epoca modernă acestea se bazează tot mai mult pe statisticileteoretice, determinând necesitatea apropierii statisticii aplicate de cea academică. Totodată,cerinţele în creştere a utilizatorilor în informaţie statistică nouă, fiabilă, coerentă motiveazădezvoltarea în continuare a cercetărilor în domeniul statisticii teoretice şi apropierea denecesităţile aplicării în practică .Teoria organizării investigaţiei statistice constituie baza metodologică pentrurealizarea demersului statistic. La rândul său, organizarea cercetării statistice încorespundere cu cerinţele teoretice oferă unica posibilitate de a obţine informaţia necesară,în primul rând fiabilă, care corespunde realităţii, în al doilea rând, conforme scopuluistudiului social-economic propus. Astfel, este primordială asigurarea realizării calitative acercetării statistice la fiecare din etapele sale: Observarea statistică sau culegerea datelor individuale de masă; Prelucrarea datelor primare şi obţinerea indicatorilor sintetici şi derivaţi; Analiza şi interpretarea rezultatelor prelucrării.Plus la aceasta, după finalizarea producerii informaţiei statistice, urmează o altăetapă a activităţii statistice – diseminarea statisticilor şi comunicarea cu utilizatorii.Experienţa altor state, în special din ultimele valuri de integrare europeană, care auavut de parcurs calea de armonizare a statisticii naţionale la standardele europene estefoarte relevantă şi utilă şi pentru ţara noastră.În opinia oficialului din Lituania, dlui Algirdas Semeta armonizarea statisticiinaţionale la cele ale UE nu este o acţiune unică şi în acest sens este necesară o abordaresistematică. Aceasta trebuie să devină o parte a dezvoltării strategice a oficiului destatistică.Armonizarea nu poate fi efectuată pe domenii statistice separate. De exemplu,statistica business niciodată nu va corespunde cerinţelor UE dacă va fi ignorată aliniereainfrastructurii statistice, inclusiv a business registrului statistic sau a tehnicilor deeşantionare. Cu siguranţă, aceste cerinţe nu pot fi realizate fără eforturi suplimentare dereorganizare a structurilor legate de colectarea datelor, registrului unităţilor statistice,prelucrarea datelor, diseminare. Astfel, consolidarea instituţională este sarcina primară cucare trebuie să înceapă procesul de armonizare, care, în mod inevitabil, duce lareorganizarea întregului sistem statistic.Jan Byfuglien de la Oficiul de Statistică al Norvegiei susţine, că asigurareaconformităţii standardelor europene este o sarcină foarte complexă, deoarece este importantde asigurat respectarea tuturor standardelor de calitate a statisticilor. Este la fel de necesarăasigurarea eficienţei realizării activităţii statistice sub aspectul stabilirii surselor celor maioportune de date, metodelor de producere a datelor, ţinând cont de aspectele costurilorfinanciare pentru instituţiile de statistică şi sarcinii informaţionale asupra respondenţilor. Pede altă parte, această adaptare şi integrare adaugă valoare sistemului naţional de statistică,făcând statistica mai relevantă şi mai interesantă în context internaţional. Implementarealegislaţiei europene a produs îmbunătăţiri calitative, nu în ultimul rând legate de o mai bunăcomparabilitate a statisticii între ţări, ceea ce reprezintă un avantaj pentru utilizatorii datelorstatistice.Dezvoltarea durabilă a sistemului statistic necesită adoptarea unui set coerent demăsuri, printre care se regăsesc 1 :1 Anghelache, C. (2009) – „Indicatori macroeconomici utilizaţi în comparabilitatea internaţională”,Conferinţa a 57-a „Statistica – trecut, prezent şi viitor”, ISBN 978-90-73592-29-2, Durban, articolRevista Română de Statistică – Supliment Trim IV/2012 409

Acordarea de către Guvern a resurselor materiale şi financiare, suficientepentru a susţine dezvoltarea sistemului statistic naţional în conformitatecu evoluţia sistemului statistic european; Crearea unor structuri solide şi valide, unor mecanisme adecvate însensul eficienţei cu partenerii sectoriali din sfera statisticii; promovarea,în acelaşi timp a rolului de coordonator al Institutului Naţional deStatistică în cadrul sistemului statistic naţional; Concentrarea, în cadrul activităţii în domeniul statisticii, pe calitateaproducţiei de statistică; Realizarea treptată a încrederii în statistică; Diseminarea largă a produselor statistice, etc.Marea provocare pentru Biroul de Statistică al Estoniei este de a avansa de la"instituţie de colectare a datelor la cea de furnizor de servicii informaţionale".Modernizarea diseminării este una dintre sarcinile cele mai importante în activitateastatisticii Estoniei. Ţinând cont, că calitatea de statistica depinde în mare măsură demotivaţia respondenţilor de a furniza date corecte, a dimensiune importantă în activitateainstituţiei revine popularizării utilizării statisticilor de către comunitatea de afaceri.Standardizarea proceselor de producere statistică, cu utilizarea performanţeloroferite de dezvoltarea tehnologiilor informaţionale şi a comunicaţiior constituie oprecondiţie pentru asigurarea integrităţii statistice. O soluţie promovată la de către UNECE este utilizarea în practica statistică la nivel naţional a Modelului generic statistic deproducere , bazat pe procese "Generic Statistical Business Process Model " (GSBPM).Modernizarea sistemului de producţie al statisticilor pe baza reformării sistemuluiinformaţional statistic în corespundere cu principiile GSBPM a fost implementat într-oserie de state europene, inclusiv în oficiile central de statistică din Letonia, Olanda, Cehia,fapt ce a permis eficientizarea activităţii ( ce este extrem de actual, în special în condiţiilede reducere a budgetului, ca de exemplu, în Ţările de Jos), precum şi un răspuns maiadecvat şi prompt la solicitările utilizatorilor.În scopul de a face faţă noilor provocări în societatea bazată pe cunoaştere, estenecesară o abordare inovatoare din partea statisticienilor, pentru a evolua, de la doar"furnizorii de informaţii" la "furnizori de cunoştinţe". Prin urmare, activitatea statisticiioficiale nu ar trebui limitată doar la producerea şi diseminarea de date, dar ar trebui să fieorientată spre asigurarea transformării datelor în cunoaşterea acestora de către toatecomponentele societăţii. Aceasta, la rândul său, presupune o gândire inovatoare,reorientarea utilizării resurselor, o bună comunicare şi cooperare cu partenerii, dobândireade noi competenţe, transformări de ordin instituţional, şi o mai bună integrare în cadrulsistemelor statistice naţionale şi internaţionale. În acest fel, statisticile pot deveni mairelevante şi utile.Statistica, astfel, trebuie să se adapteze la condiţiile “societăţii erudite”. Totodată,aceasta pune faţă de sistemul statistic naţional sarcini majore de transformări esenţiale înactivitatea de producţie, diseminare de statistici oficiale, precum şi pe dimensiuneacomunicării cu partenerii, în special cu utilizatorii şi furnizorii de informaţie.Sistemul Statistic European (SSE) deja s-a angajat activ în procesul de a răspundela provocările indicate. Astfel, sunt aşteptate schimbări revoluţionare, de mare anvergură,de conţinut şi de formă, ale Sistemului European actual, bazate pe:cotat ISI410Revista Română de Statistică – Supliment Trim IV/2012

crearea unui mediu instituţional şi organizaţional adecvat pentrupromovarea eficienţei şi credibilităţii instituţiilor statistice responsabilepentru producerea şi diseminarea statisticilor oficiale; asigurarea conformităţii statisticilor oficiale cu standardele europene decalitate şi cu nevoile utilizatorilor. Activitatea statistică calitativă trebuiesă corespundă principiilor următoare: orientarea spre utilizator;documentare; implicarea întregului personal statistic; management şicontinuitate; asigurarea cost-eficienţei statisticilor produse şi revizuirea continuă apriorităţilor statistice, în vederea utilizării optime a resurselor disponibileşi a reducerii la minimum a sarcinii impuse respondenţilor. Prioretizareaare drept scop echilibrarea costurilor şi a poverii suplimentare laimplementarea noilor studii statistice, prin diminuarea sarciniiinformaţionale în cadrul cercetărilor statistice existente.Accentul va fi pus pe modernizarea sistemelor de producere a statisticiloreuropene, pentru a construi un Sistem Statistic modern şi integrat, fapt care implicărevizuirea metodelor de producţie şi utilizarea eficientă a tehnologiilor informaţiei (TI) şi adatelor disponibile, minimizând astfel, sarcina impusă respondenţilor. Se va purcede la reengineeringulîntregii arhitecturi de producere a statisticilor europene, în cadrul juridiceuropean nou în domeniu, care a intrat în vigoare la 1 aprilie 2009. Noua arhitectură asistemului informaţional statistic trebuie să fie orientată spre satisfacerea mai completă şicomodă a nevoilor utilizator. Punerea în aplicare a acestei strategii va permite satisfacereanevoilor informaţionale noi şi în continuă creştere, în condiţiile economisirii resurselor şireducerii sau limitării sarcinii pentru repondenţi.Utilizarea noilor tehnologii TI şi coordonarea statistică vor servi ca elemente-cheieîn modernizarea sistemelor de producţie şi diseminare. Eficienţa proceselor de transmitereşi diseminare a datelor şi a metadatelor va fi îmbunătăţită prin extinderea utilizăriistandardelor SDMX şi punerea în aplicare largă, atît în statele membre cît şi Eurostat astandardului de metadate de referinţă, euro-SDMX (ESMS).Informaţiile cu privire la sarcina de răspuns şi costurile de producţie vor furnizaelementele cantitative necesare pentru evaluarea cost-eficienţei cerinţelor impuse deinstituţiile statistice. Aceste elemente vor fi apoi combinate cu informaţii cu privire larelevanţa şi nevoile utilizatorilor, obţinute în cadrul cercetării gradului de saticfacţie alutilizatorilor şi altor studii similare de evaluare.Astfel, modernizarea SSE se va baza pe abordarea integratoare, holistică astatisticii. Aceasta, la rândul său, presupune realizarea unei integrări conceptuale a surselorde date şi a instrumentelor statistice. Culegerile de date existente vor trebui regândite siextinse, se vor identifica legături între domenii statistice pentru a acoperi aspectetransversale sau pentru a răspunde unor noi cerinţe de informaţie statistică. Abordareaintegratoare a statisticii – posibilitatea de a relaţiona informaţiile despre un anumitfenomen, dar care provin din domenii diferite (de exemplu, informaţiile în legătură cuîntreprinderile mici si mijlocii sau cele despre sărăcie) - va extinde sfera de cuprindere aanumitor statistici si, prin urmare, va mări capacitatea de a răspunde la o gama mai larga decerinţe ale utilizatorilor, de o maniera mai flexibilă. Abordarea holistică este deosebit derelevantă în speţă în domenii în care se manifesta fenomene complexe, deci si atunci cândse pune problema măsurării sferei de cuprindere a globalizării.Totodată există provocări considerabile, atât de natură tehnică, cît şi metodologicăce ţin de modernizarea sistemului statistic. Integrarea proceselor de producţie care erauRevista Română de Statistică – Supliment Trim IV/2012 411

anterior separate (de “ tip furnal”) se va baza pe o infrastructură (tehnică) comună, peaplicarea cît mai mult posibil a aplicaţiilor informatice standardizate pentru procesarea,stocarea şi diseminarea datelor. În acest sens, va trebui investigat modul în care informaţiiledin diverse surse pot fi exploatate în diverse scopuri, eliminând diferenţele metodologice,uniformizând clasificările statistice etc.Modelul integrat presupune utilizarea extinsă a datelor colectate în scopuri nestatistice de către autorităţi, precum datele fiscale, cele privind salarizarea şi achitareacontribuţiilor sociale, privind piaţa forţei de muncă etc. Avantaje evidente pot fi obţinuteprin refolosirea acestor date administrative, precum şi folosirea directă a datelor contabileale întreprinderilor în scopuri statistice. Este nevoie de eforturi care să garanteze calitateadatelor deoarece, în multe cazuri, datele administrative, din alte surse externe nu suntdisponibile în forma cerută de statistică.Totodată, noile instrumente ale Tehnologiei Informaţiei şi Comunicaţiilor (TIC)continuă să se dezvolte în vederea îmbunătăţirii eficienţei, reducerii sarcinii de răspuns şisporirii calităţii statistice, precum şi transfer, stocare şi diseminare a datelor.Provocările enumerate mai sus sânt în deplină măsură valabile pentru statisticaRepublicii Moldova, care depune eforturi importante pentru a face faţă nevoilor de datestatistice ale societăţii şi comunităţii internaţionale, asigurând armonizarea graduală astatisticii naţionale la standardele UE.Sistemul statistic al Republicii Moldova trebuie să ţină pasul cu transformărileeconomiei mondiale şi să participe efectiv în spaţiul european şi mondial, adaptându-şiconceptele şi standardele .Aspiraţiile de integrare europeană a Republicii Moldova dictează necesitateaarmonizării statisticii naţionale cu standardele şi bunele practici europene.Mai mult ca atât, vectorul european al dezvoltării Republicii Moldova, declarat şipromovat cu consecvenţă de către conducerea ţării cere conştientizarea şi implementareanormelor şi standardelor europene în toate domeniile: politic, social, economic, etc.În condiţiile nou-create, de integrare în Europa şi de extindere a colaborăriiinternaţionale, rolul statisticii ca producător de bază al informaţiei devine tot mai important.Procesul de negocieri cu UE, necesită a fi susţinut de statistici comparabile la niveleuropean. Astfel, aspiraţiile de integrare europeană a Republicii Moldova dicteazănecesitatea intensificării armonizării statisticii naţionale cu standardele şi bunele practicieuropene.Evaluarea situaţiei privind gradul de corespundere şi necesităţile de aproximare astatisticii moldoveneşti standardelor UE au fost abordate în programele şi strategiile dedezvoltare a statisticii naţionale începând cu anul 2004 şi mai accentuat- din a.2008.Problematica armonizării statisticii naţionale la normele UE a fost analizată în într- o serie de lucrări de mai mulți specialiști. Conform opiniei autorilor statistica oficială dinRepublica Moldova va trebui să-şi intensifice eforturile de aplicare a experienţei acumulateîn domeniul tehnologiilor noi de culegere, prelucrare, analiză şi diseminare a datelor, încondiţiile în care, pe plan european, se urmăreşte convergenţa practicilor statisticilornaţionale prin utilizarea celor mai avansate tehnologii de comunicaţii. Introducereaeficientă a standardelor şi principiilor statistice ale Uniunii Europene în domeniulconceptelor şi metodologilor statistice ale Republicii Moldova la cerinţele şi necesităţileinterne de date va spori esenţial eficienţa sistemului statistic pe plan naţional şiinternaţional.Printre problemele majore ce ţin de dezvoltarea sistemului statistic naţional încorespundere cu normele statistice ale comunităţii europene, sunt menţionate:inconsistenţele faţă de cerinţele UE privind metodologia statistică şi modul de organizare şi412Revista Română de Statistică – Supliment Trim IV/2012

de culegere a datelor statistice din ţară; subdezvoltarea tehnologiilor informaţionale; lacuneîn legislaţia naţională privind activitatea statistică, etc.O evaluare globală a sistemul statistic al Republicii Moldova în relaţie cu SistemulStatistic European a fost efectuată de către expertul Eurostat, dl. Willem de Vries în anul2007. Rezultatele studiului au reflectat realizările notabile ale statisticii moldoveneşti înprocesul de aliniere la normele europene şi au scos la iveală o serie de deficienţe şi lipsuriprivind implementarea Principiilor Fundamentale ale Statisticii Oficiale adoptate de ONUşi adaptarea la aquis-ul comunitar. În particular, expertul a pus în evidenţă următoareleprobleme majore: Privind diseminarea datelor statistice şi accesul utilizatorilor la acestea. Înaceastă privinţă a fost remarcată necesitatea: îmbunătăţirii Web site-uluiBNS; documentării şi oferirii accesului utilizatorilor la metadatelestatistice de interes public; crearea bazei de date integrate pentrudiseminarea informaţiei; Rezerve privind structura BNS şi coordonarea SSN; Nivelul de dezvoltare scăzut al infrastructurii tehnice; Sarcina de răspuns excesivă asupra respondenţilor ca urmare a utilizării,cu mici excepţii, a metodei exhaustive de organizare a observărilorstatistice a întreprinderilor, etc.În cadrul Conferinţei internaţionale privind armonizarea statisticii moldoveneşti laexigenţele UE, problema în cauză a fost de asemenea abordată pe larg, de către experţii dinMoldova, România, Norvegia, Letonia, Estonia, de la Eurostat, fiind subliniat, experienţastatelor - membre ale UE demonstrează elocvent, că asimilarea, transpunerea acquis-ulucomunitar în realitatea unei ţări cere abordare complexă şi eforturi esenţiale.Standardele nu constituie şi nu oferă ” reţetă gata” de” preparare” pentruproducerea datelor statistice calitative. Implementarea acestora în practică necesită efortconsiderabil din partea tuturor autorităţilor naţionale, precum şi resurse umane, financiare şide timp.Astfel, ţinând cont de posibilităţile financiare şi umane extrem de limitate“Moldova trebuie să dea prioritate acelor cerinţe ale UE care corespund necesităţilor şipriorităţilor naţionale ale ţării“. Totodată, printre priorităţi trebuie să se regăseascăactivităţile statistice majore, care oferă cadrul general pentru statistica macroeconomică,demografică, socială şi agricolă: Sistemul Conturilor Naţionale, Recensământul Populaţieişi Recensământul General Agricol.Bibliografie selectivă[1]. Algirdas S. Monitorizarea conformităţii – experienţa Lituaniei până şi după intrarea înUE Conferinţa Armonizarea statisticii oficiale a Republicii Moldova cu standardeleUniunii Europene”, Chişinău, 3 – 4 mai 2007:[2]. http://www.statistica.md/libview.php?l=ro&idc=223&id=2121[3]. Anghelache C. Tratat de statistică teoretică şi economică. Bucureşti: EdituraEconomică, 2008[4]. Voineagu V., Dumitrescu I.,Ştefănescu D.E. Sistemul Statistic European. Revista[5]. Română de Statistică, 2009, 12, p. 4-19[6]. Bratanova L, Jigitekov, Vale Steven Experienţele UNECE în diseminarea datelorstatistice. Seminarul internaţional privind diseminarea datelor statistice şi lansarea uneinoi soluţii Web de diseminare a datelor statistice, Chişinău, 27 mai 2010:Revista Română de Statistică – Supliment Trim IV/2012 413

http://www.statistica.md/public/files/SeminareConferinte/Disseminare_27_mai_2010/09_UNECE_Experiences_in_Statistical_Dissemination_RO.pdf[7]. Byfuglien J. Aplicarea şi monitorizarea legislaţiei europene cu privire la statisticaoficială – experienţa Norvegiei. Conferinţa Armonizarea statisticii oficiale a RepubliciiMoldova cu standardele Uniunii Europene”, Chişinău, 3 – 4 mai 2007:http://www.statistica.md/libview.php?l=ro&idc=223&id=2121[8]. Fischer J. A statistical system for future generations. Conference on Modern Statisticsfor Modern Society. 6 – 7 December 2007, Luxembourg: Office for OfficialPublications of the European Communities, 2008[9]. *** A System of Integrated Agricultural Censuses and Surveys, World Programme forthe Census of Agriculture 2010, Food and Agriculture Organization, The UnitedNations, 2005, Rome414Revista Română de Statistică – Supliment Trim IV/2012

Some Approaches on the Social Insurance Model inRomaniaAna ANTON CARP, PhDkarp_ana@yahoo.comIoana Mihaela POCAN PhDCătălina Claudia SAVA PhD StudentLorand KRALIK PhD Studentlorand17@gmail.comAcademy of Economic Studies, BucharestAbstractThe liberties won by Romanians in 1989 had a first materialization through theexodus of Romanian population towards external destination. Emigration knew the widestphenomenon in 1990 within Europe, in Romania. Together with this phenomenon, theaging of the population triggered also.The public pensions system, under the inflow of reforms initiated in Europe andabroad, strongly dependent of the correlation employees-beneficiaries was put in the faceof vital necessity to change the modality to grant promised benefits to insurants andpractically to reform the public pension system.In the article, we shall present a series of approaches of the Romanian insurancemodel, in the vision of some authors, both from Romania and abroad.Key words: social insurance, pensions, Borc model, contributor, beneficiaryJEL Classification: C10Modelul de asigurări sociale din România a fost abordat de autori români şi străini.Tănăsescu (2006) era de părere că în perioada postaderare, ţara noastră trebuie săşidefinească propriul model social în concordanţă cu principiile europene.Fultz (2006) , în numeroase studii referitoare la ţările din Europa de Est, a făcut oamplă analiză a Sistemului de securitate socială din România.Formula de calcul a pensiilor în opinia sa este:Pv [ ( I ( y ) / N ( y )) / C ] AgiagiRevista Română de Statistică – Supliment Trim IV/2012 415cpE Vunde: Pv este valoarea pensiei (cuantumul); I gi(y)reprezintă salariul brut al fiecăreipersoane pentru fiecare an, N agi(y)este salariul mediu brut din fiecare an, calculat camedie a celor 12 luni, Ccp este durata completă a contribuţiei, respectiv stagiu complet decotizare.Fultz a utilizat doi coeficienţi denumiţi coeficientul de acces , A şi coeficientulde elasticitate, E . Primul coeficient ia valori întregi, valoarea 1 reprezintă pensia de limităde vârstă. Al doilea coeficient exprimă bonusul acordat pentru realizarea unei perioadepp

suplimentare de cotizare. ppV este valoarea punctului de pensie care ia valori între 30% şi50% din salariul mediu. Pe baza formulei enunţate, autoarea concluziona că pensia maximănu poate depăşi de 2,5 ori salariul mediu, ceea ce nu este tocmai real. Stagiile mult maimari de cotizare decât stagiile standard, dar şi utilizarea unor stagii reduse de cotizare încazul persoanelor încadrate în grupe speciale şi deosebite de muncă, contrazic aceastăconcluzie. Formula de calcul evidenţiază, potrivit Fultz, faptul că nu este prevăzut un nivelminim al pensiei.Opinia sa, exprimată în numeroase studii la OIM, este o radiografie a sistemuluiromânesc de securitate socială în ansamblu, al forţei de muncă, al sistemului de asigurărisociale şi a asistenţei sociale. Ms. Ufuk Guven (2008) caracteriza în manieră obiectivămodalitatea de efectuare a reformei în România.Autorii au sugerat trei scenarii posibile de accelerare a reformei în România, încare parametrul vârsta de pensionare era propus pentru egalizare în anul 2014.Într-unul dintre scenarii, autorii propuneau egalizarea vârstelor de pensionare alefemeilor şi bărbaţilor la 65 de ani în 2014; indexarea vârstei de pensionare a bărbaţilor dupălongevitate; vârsta de pensionare a femeilor egală cu cea a bărbaţilor; creşterea vârstei depensionare la 68 de ani în 2045.Dragotă (2008), Miricescu (2008) au ilustrat deficienţele Sistemului public depensii din România. Una din critici adusă de autori este necorelarea vârstei standard depensionare cu durata de viaţă.O altă opinie este exprimată de Stegăroiu (2008) care era de părere că “fiecarepersoană trebuie să beneficieze de pensie la orice vârstă, pensia fiind calculată în funcţie deperioada activă şi de contribuţiile plătite”, fiind adeptul conceptului de “vârstă flexibilă”.Referitor la Sistemul public de pensii din România, Stegăroiu (2010) concluzionacă sistemul de pensii din anul 2010 nu este adecvat problemelor economice şi sociale şi esteadeptul introducerii unei legi unice „pentru acordarea unei pensii uniforme” pentru toatecategoriile profesionale. Pe de altă parte, autorul spune că stabilirea unei valori unice apunctului de pensie asigură o echitate socială. Echitatea socială însă, în opinia mea nu arelegătură cu valoarea punctului de pensie întrucât valorile pensiilor sunt diferenţiate înfuncţie de nivelul veniturilor individuale. El utilizează, ca şi Fultz, coeficienţi de acces şicoeficienţi de elasticitate, ducând formula de calcul spre o abordare geometrică.Borc (2001) a realizat un model de echilibru general şi o simulare a reformei înanul 2001, model creat chiar la debutul Legii nr.19/2000. Implementarea reformei din 2001a avut în vedere creşterea vârstei de pensionare la femei şi bărbaţi pentru creşterea graduluide ocupare a forţei de muncă şi pentru creşterea corelaţiei între contribuţii plătite şibeneficiile primite. Schimbarea majoră ar fi introducerea unui sistem de pensii suplimentarîn viitor pentru a compensa scăderea ratei de înlocuire din sistemul de pensii obligatoriuEl a dezvoltat modelul de echilibru general al lui Auerbach şi Kotlikoff (1987).Generaţiile se confruntă cu riscul de mortalitate şi cu riscul veniturilor individuale. El apresupus că în sistem un agent intră la vârsta de 20 de ani şi se va retrage din viaţa activă lavârsta de 60 de ani. Durata de activitate este de 40 de ani. Prin calibrarea modelului (20 ani= varsta zero, 60 de ani = varsta de 40 de ani) a făcut o serie de simulări pentru a imita prereforma.Prin modificarea variabilelor şi rezolvarea modelului a constatat care este impactulmodificării acestora. Modelul a fost conceput ca un model OLG cu trei sectoare:gospodăriile, sectorul de producţie şi sectorul guvernamanetal.Factorii care au dus la necesitatea implementării reformei, după Borc sunt:îmbătrânirea populaţiei, creşterea ratei de dependenţă, apariţia şomajului şi creşterea cotei416Revista Română de Statistică – Supliment Trim IV/2012

contribuţiilor. Un alt factor a fost scăderea nivelului real al pensiilor. Modificareadisproporţionată a nivelului pensiilor faţă de nivelul mediu reprezintă un alt factor.Formula de calcul a pensiilor permitea aranjamente între angajator şi angajatpentru ca spre finalul activităţii media salarială pentru cei 5 ani care intra în formula decalcul să fie în favoarea angajatului şi în neconcordanţă cu media salarială reală aangajatului.Borc (2001) semnala o creştere a ratei de evaziune. Deşi nu explică sensul acestuifactor, constatăm că se referă la tentaţia angajatorului de a nu înregistra venitul nominalefectiv al angajatului, ceea ce a cauzat o defectuoasă colectare a contribuţiilor care erau înmod real datorate.Modificările principale introduse în anul 2001 în Sistemul de Pensii din România,aşa cum sunt propuse de Borc (2001) sunt:- Creşterea vârstei de pensionare (de la 60 la 65 de ani pentru bărbaţi întermen de 14 ani şi de la 55 de ani la 62 de ani în termen de 28 de anipentru femei). Acest lucru va conduce la creşterea numărului de oamenicare contribuie. În completarea acestei direcţii a reformei, Borc a arătat căextinderea acoperirii obligatorii pentru totalitatea forţei de muncă cât şireducerea evaziunii fiscale sunt aspecte pozitive ale reformei. Formula decalcul introdusă crează o legătură puternică între contribuţii şi beneficii.- Repartizarea contribuţiilor între angajator şi angajat prin proporţia 2/3pentru angajator şi 1/3 pentru angajat creează un interes al participanţilorla sistem pentru înregistrarea reală a venitului din salariu. Introducereaunui sistem complementar finanţat integral (componenta administratăprivat, pentru generaţiile sub 40 de ani) este cuprinsă în model.Modelul Borc are la bază numărul de ani pe care îl trăieşte o persoană. În perioadade activitate venitul obţinut este repartizat între consum, plata impozitelor (contribuţiilor) şiacumularea de active. La împlinirea vârstei de pensionare fiecare persoană primeşte oanuitate funcţie de nivelul total al contribuţiilor la sistemul de securitate socială.N (s)- Variabilele demografice: t este populaţia la vârsta t la momentulv (s)s; t teste rata de supravieţuire; T vârsta maximă; R este vârstade pensionare;g (s)- Variabilele guvernamentale:reprezintă cheltuielileguvernamentale; i reprezintă impozitele aferente venitului;PBffreprezintă contribuţiile la sistemul de pensii PAYG;taxele de finanţare ale fondurilorc (s)- Pentru gospodării, t este consumul la momentul s al persoanelorh (s)de vârstă t ; t este cererea la momentul s de forţă de muncă dea (s)vârstă t ; t este forţă de muncă de vârstă t care activează lamomentul s;k t(s)este capitalul fizic de forţă de muncă de vârstă tRevista Română de Statistică – Supliment Trim IV/2012 417

S t(s)reprezintă beneficiile din Sistemul PAYG;la momentul s;FB t(s)reprezintă beneficiile din Sistemul Privat al fondurilor de (s)pensii; t este totalul taxelor plătite la momentul s de persoanelede vârsta t;w(s)- În sectorul de producţie, variabilele sunt: reprezintă salariulindividual; t reprezintă coficient de elasticitate- r (s)este rata dobânzii; K (s)este capitalul fizic de forţă demuncă agregat la momentul s; L (s)este cererea de forţă de muncăagregată la momentul s; VF reprezintă fondul individual acumulat;PF reprezintă valoarea fondului de pensii; T (s)reprezintă situaţiiaccidentale (moşteniri).Populaţia totală:TN ( s) X Nt( s)Pentru a calcula starea de echilibru Borc a urmat modelul Auerbach-Kotlikoff(1987) şi Huang (1996). Identitatea venitului naţional pentru economie este:g ( s)N ( s) Tt 0 c ( s)N ( s) K ( s) R(s 1) K ( s 1) w(s) h ( s)N ( s)ttt Rt 0tttg ( s)N ( s) sT1t 0 ct( s)Nt( s) K ( s) (1 ) K ( s 1) AK ( s 1) L( 1)A introdus două modificări: creşterea vârstei (probabil pentru a simula creştereavarstei de pensionare aşa cum a fost prevăzută de lege, în mod eşalonat) şi în modul decalcul al beneficiilor (pensiilor).A folosit variabile endogene : salariul, rata dobanzii, într-o funcţie Cobb-DouglasSuma cu care a contribuit generaţia:VFt ( s) ft( s)Nt( s)Suma acumulată a economiilor unui individ:VFif. 1( s)t R Suma totală acumulată la Sistemul de Pensii este:PF(s) R(s 1)PF(s 1) Beneficiul din pensii este :B t( s) 0; dacă t t 1R0Tw(s)h ( s)N ( s) FB ( s)N ( s)TRt fft ttTttR1tt418Revista Română de Statistică – Supliment Trim IV/2012

B ( s)t1 T t R Rii1 j11VF( s j 1) tR jdacă t t R 1El concluzionează că există trei procese de tranziţie:Creşterea participării la sistem care este de aşteptat să se finalizeze într-o perioadă de 40 deaniCreşterea vârstei de pensionare care va dura 24 de ani (2014 pentru bărbaţi, 2024 pentrufemei)Tranziţia către un sistem complet finanţat (2020 pentru femei , 2025 pentru bărbaţi)Simulările pe care le face pornesc de la momentul T până determină care estevârsta de pensionare. Beneficiile sunt din cele două sisteme.Este pesimist în legătură cu viitorul acestui sistem şi compară România cu o ţarăsubdezvoltată care a implementat un model la propunerea Băncii MondialeModelul Borc este cel mai complet studiu de caz referitor la România.Bibliografie selectivă[1]. Anghelache, C., (2008) - „Tratat de statistică teoretică şi economică”, EdituraEconomică, Bucureşti[2]. Anghelache, C., Lilea, F.P.C., (2012) - „Econometrie”, Editura Artifex, Bucureşti[3]. Borc, C. (2001) – „Social Security Reform:The case of Romania”, Departamentul deEconomie, Universitatea din Wisconsin-Madison[4]. Dragotă, M., Miricescu, E. (2008) - „Deficiences of the Public Pension System inRomania. Some Reform Measures Derived from EU Experience”[5]. Fultz, E. (2006) - „The Gender Dimensions of Social Security Reform-Volume 2- CaseStudies of Romania and Slovenia”,http://www.ilo.org/public/english/region/eurpro/budapest/download/socsec/gender_vol2.pdf, pp.65-69[6]. Stegăroiu, Valentin (2008) - „The Adjustement of Romanian Public Pension Plan inthe Context of European Integration”, http://mpra.ub.uni-munchen.de, Nov 2008[7]. Stegăroiu,V, Stegăroiu, C.E. (2010)- “Algoritm privind reformarea sistemului publicde pensii din România – o necesitate impusă de criza economică globală”, Economieteoretică şi aplicată , Volumul XVII (2010), No.3 (544), pp.47-65[8]. Tănăsescu ,M. (2006) – „Este modelul social european o barieră in caleacompetivităţii?” – Ziarul Financiar, nov.2006Revista Română de Statistică – Supliment Trim IV/2012 419

Break-even Analysis under Seasonal ActivityLecturer Adrian ANICA-POPA PhDAcademy of Economic Studies - BucharestAbstractFoundation of economic decisions on the manufacture and sales of products in theconstruction materials industry is influenced by many factors. Among these may beincluded also: pollution control, national priorities, moral factors, policies and evenweather conditions. Each of these factors can be quantified or not. Each factor has acertain value and remains at the discretion of the analyst the identification andmeasurement of a large number of factors. This paper focuses on the seasonal activity andits effects on break-even.Key words: building materials industry, seasonality, turnover, breakeven,decisionJEL Classification: D00IntroducereLuarea unor decizii economice privind producţia şi comercializarea produselorrealizate în cadrul industriei materialelor de construcţie este influenţată de o multitudine defactori. În rândul acestora pot fi incluşi şi: controlul poluării, priorităţile naţionale, factorimorali, politici şi chiar condiţiile climaterice. Fiecare dintre aceşti factori poate ficuantificat sau nu. Fiecare factor are o anumită valoare şi rămâne doar la latitudineaanalistului identificarea şi măsurarea unui număr cât mai mare al factorilor de influenţă.Deoarece nevoia de resurse informaţionale a organizaţiilor este din ce în ce mai ridicată, iartimpul alocat pentru fundamentarea deciziilor trebuie să fie cât mai redus, se impune oanaliză a pragului de rentabilitate mai aproape de realitatea din mediul economic, adică încondiţiile sezonalităţii activităţii.1. Sezonalitatea – manifestare şi efecteSituarea României, şi a altor ţări din Europa în zona de climă temperată, face casezonalitatea să fie determinată în primul rând de condiţiile climaterice. În această situaţiecererea pentru materialele de construcţii se manifestă diferit în decursul unui ancalendaristic. În cazul întreprinderii analizate, se poate constata influenţa majoră asezonalităţii asupra producţiei fabricate, şi implicit asupra costurilor de producţie unitare,asupra cifrei de afaceri obţinută, iar în final asupra rezultatului exploatării. Reducereacosturilor totale, şi mai cu seamă a celor fixe în sezon ce revin pe unitatea de produs nureflectă însă o utilizare mai raţională a resurselor consumate şi implicit o economisire reală.Sezonalitatea are o serie de efecte negative asupra utilizării resurselor de orice natură,acestea putând fiind suprasolicite în perioada sezonului sau incomplet folosite înextrasezon. Această sezonalitate generează variaţii majore în stabilirea profitului. Datorităfaptului că întreprinderea nu poate să modifice (în sensul majorării) preţul produselorrealizate în funcţie de costul de producţie calculat în fiecare lună datorită forţelor pieţei, decele mai multe ori rezultă o evoluţie nefavorabilă în extrasezon a raportului dintre cifra deafaceri şi suma cheltuielilor totale (costul a fost determinat în funcţie de cheltuieli fixe şi420Revista Română de Statistică – Supliment Trim IV/2012

variabile). Invers, în sezon dinamica cifrei de afaceri este superioară dinamicii costurilor,ceea ce conduce la o rentabilitate sporită.Sezonalitatea este o particularitate a activităţilor desfăşurate de unele firme deproducţie din industria materialelor de construcţii, care se prezintă sub forma unor oscilaţiice se repetă ritmic (datorită succesiuni anotimpurilor) cu o periodicitate constantă de un anşi a cărei manifestare este sesizabilă numai în cazul seriilor cronologice, ai căror termeni sereferă la unităţi de timp mai scurte decât anul (ziua, luna, trimestrul, semestrul).Utilitatea informaţiilor referitoare la sezonalitatea cifrei de afaceri, identificareapunctelor de minim şi de maxim ale acesteia, se regăseşte în adoptarea unor deciziimanageriale cu privire la alocarea şi utilizarea raţională a resurselor financiare, materiale şiumane.2. Determinarea pragului de rentabilitate în condiţiile sezonalităţii activităţiiÎntreprinderea supusă analizei activează în industria fabricării materialelor deconstrucţii. Compania este producătoare de betoane, mortare, prefabricate din beton şibeton armat. Produsele sunt realizate sub strict control de calitate având în vedereautomatizarea procesului tehnologic. Totodată întreprinderea poate asigura şi transportul cumijloace adecvate precum şi turnarea cu autopompe. Tot în cadrul acesteia seconfecţionează cele mai diverse armături metalice pentru betoane armate, carcase, plasesudate, confecţii metalice. În cadrul întreprinderii funcţionează ateliere de confecţiimetalice, de tâmplărie, de prefabricate, magazii, depozite deschise şi închise.Influenţa sezonalităţii asupra evoluţiei producţiei şi comercializării arerepercusiuni şi asupra pragului rentabilităţii. În aceste condiţii atingerea praguluirentabilităţii este condiţionată de acoperirea cheltuielilor fixe (CF) cu ajutorul marjei bruteasupra cheltuielilor variabile cumulată ( Mb ):CVMbCV cumCFDeterminarea pragului de rentabilitate în condiţiile sezonalităţii este influenţat deurmătorii factori: evoluţia preţului de vânzare al produselor, evoluţia costurilor variabile peunitatea de produs şi valoarea totală a costurilor fixe. În cazul în care nu ar intervenisezonalitatea, şi s-ar menţine atât preţul de vânzare unitar în decursul întregului an cât şicosturile variabile pe unitatea de produs, iar costurile fixe ar fi constante (adică nu ar fiinfluenţate de punerea sau scoaterea din funcţiune a unor capacităţi de producţie; deschimbări în nivelul de salarizare a personalului de conducere; a furniturilor de birou,valoarea abonamentelor etc.) pragul de rentabilitate s-ar determina în condiţii de liniaritatea activităţii.În condiţiile evoluţiei lineare a cheltuielilor şi veniturilor, pragul rentabilităţiipentru anul 2011 ar fi:CFCA CV, adică 5.560.346CRCA leiCR 17.832.47171.226.32811CA103.498.087Unde: CA - cifra de afaceri;CF - cheltuieli fixe totale;CV - cheltuieli variabile totale.cumRevista Română de Statistică – Supliment Trim IV/2012 421

lei120.000.000100.000.000103.498.08780.000.00060.000.00040.000.00020.000.00024.786.9175.073.34634.236.5548.100.26217.832.47102009 2010 2011Cifra de afaceriCifra de afaceri criticăFigura 1. Evoluţia cifrei de afaceri obţinută şi a pragului de rentabilitate - BetoaneÎn realitate asupra pragului de rentabilitate acţionează de obicei toţi cei trei factori.Pentru întreprinderea analizată, care activează în cadrul industriei materialelor deconstrucţii, influenţa celor trei factori este foarte variată, cu consecinţe pe măsură. În acestecondiţii, pragul rentabilităţii se determină în condiţii de sezonalitate. Spre exemplificare seva identifica momentul în care se va atinge punctul critic al rentabilităţii, precum şivaloarea cifrei de afaceri la prag (critică) înregistrate în anul 2011.Tabel 1. Evoluţia trimestrială a marjei brute a cheltuielilor variabile - Betoane (lei)Mb CVc CVCFNr.crt. Trim. CA p qvTrim. Cumulat1 I 9.358.727 253,70 36.889 220,07 8.118.361 1.240.366 1.240.366 -2 II 35.142.516 274,40 128.072 189,79 24.307.327 10.835.189 12.075.555 -3 III 45.292.353 286,46 158.112 185,22 29.284.950 16.007.403 28.082.958 -4 IV 13.704.491 270,96 50.577 188,14 9.515.690 4.188.801 32.271.759 -5 TOTAL 103.498.087 - 373.650 - 71.226.328 32.271.759 - 5.560.346unde: p - preţ mediu de vânzareq- cantitatec v- cost variabil unitar mediuMb CVcum - marja brută cumulatăCF- cheltuieli fixeDin datele prezentate rezultă că cifra de afaceri critică se atinge în trimestrul II alanului 2011. Pentru o determinare cât mai exactă a momentului când se atinge cifra deafaceri critică, vom detalia pentru fiecare lună evoluţia indicatorilor care sunt utilizaţi încuantificarea acesteia.Tabel 2. Evoluţia lunară a marjei brute a cheltuielilor variabile - Betoane (lei)Mb CVc CVCFNr.crt. Luni CA p qvLuna Cumulat1 Ianuarie 2.082.639 249,48 8.346 254,20 2.121.664 -39.395 -39.395 -2 Februarie 2.445.421 249,48 9.827 223,21 2.193.541 258.162 218.767 -3 Martie 4.830.666 257,80 18.715 203,21 3.803.156 1.021.599 1.240.366 -4 Aprilie 11.597.530 268,88 43.179 191,73 8.278.731 3.331.408 4.571.773 -5 Mai 10.947.669 277,20 39.407 190,67 7.513.522 3.409.995 7.981.769 -6 Iunie 12.597.317 277,20 45.487 187,20 8.515.074 4.093.786 12.075.555 -422Revista Română de Statistică – Supliment Trim IV/2012

Nr. Luni CA q CV Mb CV CF7 Iulie 15.331.520 285,52 53.731 187,30 10.063.749 5.277.209 17.352.763 -8 August 15.331.520 291,06 52.707 181,12 9.546.328 5.794.630 23.147.393 -9 Septembrie 14.629.313 282,74 51.674 187,23 9.674.872 4.935.564 28.082.958 -10 Octombrie 7.380.203 282,74 26.116 183,23 4.785.237 2.598.909 30.681.867 -11 Noiembrie 4.037.034 271,66 14.859 193,23 2.871.241 1.165.347 31.847.214 -12 Decembrie 2.287.253 237,84 9.602 193,63 1.859.211 424.545 32.271.759 -13 TOTAL 103.498.087 - 373.650 - 71.226.328 32.271.759 - 5.560.346În consecinţă, cifra de afaceri critică pentru anul 2011 se atinge în luna „mai” (a sevedea şi Figura 2. Evidenţierea pragului de rentabilitate în anul 2011).Referitor la modul de determinare al cifrei de afaceri critică aferentă lunii„aprilie”, valoarea acesteia este:CF Mbcvcum N-1CAcr N 1- cv NUnde: CA cr Ncifra de afaceri critică aferentă lunii „N”CFcheltuieli fixe anualeMbcv cum N-1marja brută asupra cheltuielilor variabile alelunii „N-1”c v Ncheltuieli variabile la 1 leu cifră de afaceriCF Mbcvcum 45.560.346 - 4.571.773CAcr 5 , adică CA cr 5 3.166.776 lei1- cv 51- 0,68783iar cifra de afaceri critică totală este dată de relaţia:CACAcrTotalLei35.000.00030.000.00025.000.000Unde:crTotal4 i 1N-1 CAi CAcr Ni1CA cr Totalcifra de afaceri critică totalăCAcifra de afaceri lunarăiiCA CAMbcv cumulatăcr 5Nivelul cheltuielilor fixe anuale, adică 20.968.865 3.166.776 24.135.642 leiCA crTotalCAcrProfit20.000.000Pierdere15.000.00010.000.0005.000.0000Ianuarie Februarie Martie Aprilie Mai Iunie Iulie August Septembrie Octombrie Noiembrie Decembrie-5.000.000Figura 2. Evidenţierea pragului de rentabilitate în anul 2011 - BetoaneRevista Română de Statistică – Supliment Trim IV/2012 423

Din datele prezentate se observă modificări la nivelul preţului de desfacere alproduselor fabricate, în primele opt luni ale anului 2011, după care se constată reducereaacestuia până la sfârşitul anului datorită crizei financiare. Cheltuielile variabile unitare auînregistrat o evoluţie descrescătoare din ianuarie până în august (lună ce marchează vârfulde sezon), datorită existenţei cheltuielilor variabile degresive (cheltuieli care au ritmul decreştere inferior celui aferent volumului fizic al producţiei care le-a ocazionat). Cheltuielilefixe s-au menţinut la acelaşi nivel în toată perioada analizată. Decalajul dintre cele douăcifre de afaceri critice (una calculată în condiţii de linearitate a activităţii şi una calculată încondiţii de sezonalitate) poate avea consecinţe asupra deciziilor adoptate de către echipa demanagement a firmei. Atingerea pragului de rentabilitate în luna aprilie a fost alimentat demenţinerea în prima luna a anului analizat a unui preţ de vânzare care nu acoperea costul deproducţie, cu riscul major al înregistrării de pierderi, din dorinţa de a-şi păstra clienţii şi dea se menţine pe piaţă. În luna aprilie se marchează începutul unei perioade în care se tindeatingerea punctul critic, iar începând cu luna aprilie până în octombrie inclusivîntreprinderea reuşeşte să intre în zona câştigurilor, şi să obţină un profit substanţial, care vapermite acoperirea pierderilor de la începutul anului.ConcluziiÎn cazul întreprinderii analizate, se poate constata influenţa majoră a sezonalităţiiasupra producţiei fabricate, şi implicit asupra costurilor de producţie unitare, asupra cifreide afaceri obţinută, iar în final asupra rezultatului exploatării. Această sezonalitategenerează variaţii majore în stabilirea profitului. Piaţa construcţiilor şi piaţa materialelor deconstrucţii au un pronunţat caracter sezonier. Astfel, de exemplu, anul 2005 a fost un annefavorabil construcţiilor, datorită evenimentelor meteo care nu au permis realizarea unuinumăr de lucrări (inundaţii, surpări de teren). Datorită faptului că întreprinderile nu pot sămodifice (în sensul majorării) preţul produselor realizate în funcţie de costul de producţiecalculat în fiecare lună datorită forţelor pieţei, de cele mai multe ori rezultă o evoluţienefavorabilă în extrasezon a raportului dintre cifra de afaceri şi suma cheltuielilor totale(costul a fost determinat în funcţie de cheltuieli fixe şi variabile). Invers, în sezon dinamicacifrei de afaceri este superioară dinamicii costurilor, ceea ce conduce la o rentabilitatesporită.Analiza pragului de rentabilitate în condiţii de sezonalitate a pus în evidenţămomentul atingerii acestuia pe baza datelor din anul 2011. Întreprinderea producătoare debeton atinge cifra de afaceri critică în luna mai.Bibliografie selectivă[1]. Anica-Popa A. (2009), Metode de analiză a costurilor şi îmbunătăţirea performanţelorîntreprinderilor din industria materialelor de construcţii (teză de doctorat)[2]. Anica-Popa A., Manole Al., Oancea-Negescu M.D. (2008) Evaluarea alternativelorinvestiţionale la nivelul întreprinderilor din industria materialelor de construcţii,Revista Calitatea-acces la success, supliment, nr. 94, nov. 2008[3]. Anica-Popa I. (2011). Inter-organizational Information System and Virtual Enterprise,Revista Română de Statistică, nr. 3 supliment, ISSN: 1018-046X[4]. Oancea-Negescu M.D., Anica-Popa A. (2009) The real estate recession and theperformances of firms in Romanian construction industry, Economie teoretică şiaplicată, supliment mai 2009, pag 188-199[5]. Cohen, E. (1997), Analyse financiere, Ed. Economica, Paris424Revista Română de Statistică – Supliment Trim IV/2012

Study regarding Primary Obesity in the Case ofChildrenLecturer Antoanela GIOSAN PhD Studentbiuffette@yahoo.com“Artifex” University of BucharestAbstractObesity, that is the increase of corporal weight for the adipose tissue, became oneof the most encountered nutrition-related diseases.The author attempts in the study the dissemination of observations accumulatedfollowing a clinical-statistical study regarding obesity and overweight at the pre-schoolchildren from six Romanian kindergartens. The main objectives pursued are the nutritionhabits and the level of physical activity. The modality used for the study is the statisticalinquiry.Key words: obesity, corporal mass index, parameters, correlation, overweightJEL Classification: I11IntroducereObezitatea, sau creşterea greutăţii corporale a ţesutului adipos, a devenit una dincele mai des întâlnite boli de nutriţie.Conform unui studiu efectuat în 79 de ţări, OMS apreciază că există 250 milioanede obezi în lume, din care 22 de milioane sunt copii cu vârstă mai mică de 5 ani. Un procentde 50% din copiii obezi la maturitate ajung adulţi obezi. (1)Creare unor obiceiuri alimentare sănătoase înca din timpul copilariei este cea maieficientă metodă de păstrare a stârii de sănătate pe termen lung.Prin obezitate înţelegem o tulburare cronică a stării de nutriţie caracterizată princreşterea greutăţii corporale pe seama ţesutului adipos, aceasta rezultând prin creştereanumărului de adipocite dar şi a volumului lor, care determină creşterea greutăţii corporale(Nelson, Textbook of Pediatrics, 15th edition)Putem defini obezitatea prin indicele de masă corporală (IMC, indicele Quetelet),o metodă des folosită în practică şi în studiile epidemiologice.Conform unui studiu efectuat în România în 1980 pe un lot de 5250 copii cu vârstecuprinse între 3luni şi 16 ani, s-a înregistrat un procent de obezitate de 14,7% dintre care18,6 % sugari, 15 % preşcolari şi 14,2 % şcolari, predominant fiind sexul feminin.( 2)Prima cercetare HBSC în România a avut loc în 2005-2006 (studiu publicat într-unraport al IASO, Londra, 2009), la copiii 11-15 ani; aceasta a arătat că prevalenţasupraponderii a fost 14,7% la fete şi 8,7% la băieţi.Etiopatogenia obezităţii la copilObezitatea poate fi determinată de mai mulţi factori:- Genetici – influenţează atât aportul caloric cât şi pierderile energetice,aceasta afectând menţinerea unei greutăţi corporale normale;Revista Română de Statistică – Supliment Trim IV/2012 425

- Comportamentali – contribuie la dezvoltarea obezităţii acţionând înstrânsă legătura între ei si neexistând posibilitatea specificării unui anumecomportament ca şi cauză a obezităţii (Birch and Fisher, 1998);- De mediu – prin creştere dramatică a obezităţii în ultimii 20 de ani sepoate trage concluzia că, factorii de mediu pot influenţa comportamentulcopilului faţă de aportul caloric şi activitatea fizică şi sunt directrăspunzători pentru apariţia obezităţii. (3)Factori favorizanţi:- Obezitatea mamei;- Greutate mică sau mare la naştere;- Istoric familial pozitiv pentru obezitate;- Creşterea rapidă în greutate în primele 4-6 luni;- Absenţa alimentaţiei naturale;- Alimentaţia necorespunzătoare.Criterii de identificare şi evaluare a obezităţii la copilAnamneza:- Vărsta de debut a obezităţii;- Factorii declanşanţi;- Dezvoltarea pe etape de vârstă a copilului;- Ancheta alimentară;- Ancheta activităţilor fizice;- Relaţia aport alimentar – activitate fizică- obezitate.De la naştere şi până la vârsta de 2 ani se folosesc hărţile de creştere. La copiii cuvârstă mai mare de 2 ani se recomandă folosirea hărţilor IMC 2-20 ani . IMC este unindicator antropometric, o măsură indirectă a grăsimii corporale. Prin graficele IMC sepoate ilustra rebound-ul adipozitar.Standardizarea stării de nutriţie la copil în funcţie de percentilele IMC (CDC 2000,WHO 2010)Starea de nutriţie Percentile IMCObezitate IMC ≥ percentile 95 (+2DS)/sex/vârstăSuprapondere 85≤ IMC < percentile 95/sex/vârstăGreutate normală 5

Profilaxia obezităţii reprezintă o strategie a politicilor de sănătate, strategii dereducere a riscului de obezitate a copiilor, bazate pe imbunătăţirea obiceiurilor legate dealimentaţie şi a menţinerii unui nivel înalt al activităţii fizice.Prin formarea unor obiceiuri alimentare sănătoase de la vârstă mică ajutămmenţinerea sănătăţii pe termen lung.Obiectivele studiului- Evaluarea factorilor de risc ai obezităţii;- Analiza, înregistrarea şi urmărirea parametrilor antropometrici;- Elaborarea şi implementarea unui program de promovare a unui stil deviaţă sănătos.Protocol de studiu.S-a efectuat un studiu clinico-statistic privind obezitatea şi supraponderea la copiiipreşcolari proveniţi din 4 grădiniţe.Pentru a evaluarea obezitaţii şi pentru stabilirea unor corelaţii între parametriistudiaţi, a fost parcurs un protocol de studiu:Identifică Observă Înregistrează Analizează ComparăParametrii urmăriţi:- Vărsta şi sexul copilului;- Date anamnestice;- Parametrii antropometrici;- Determinarea indicelui de masă corporală (IMC).Evaluarea factorilor de risc ai obezităţiiÎn raport cu vârsta de gestaţie am observat următoarele:- 89,3 % au fost născuţi la termen;- 23,7 % din mame au fumat în timpul sarcinii. Constatăm că nu există ocorelaţie reală cu obezitatea la copii, OR 2,47(93% CI, 0,09-4,76) şi nicicu supraponderea. OR 1,72 (93% CI, 0,15 – 2,92);- Talia la naştere a copilului nu are influenţă asupra supraponderii, OR 0,76(93%Cl, -0,02-1,23) şi nici a obezităţii la copil OR 0,7 (93% Cl, 0,07-1,52).Aproximativ 50% din copiii care au avut Gn mai mică de 2800g şi mai mare de4000g au devenit supraponderali şi obezi.În cadrul familiei, obezitatea este prezentă într-un procent de 27% . La eşantionulstudiat am observat ca 50 % din totalul variaţiilor IMC sunt determinate de variţia creşteriivârstei.Studiul activităţii sportive desfăşurate de copii în timpul liber ne-a aratat că,activităţile fizice uşoare şi moderate au fost cu precădere alese de copiii cu suprapondere şiobezitate, comparativ cu copiii normoponderali care participă la activităţi fizice moderate.Cu ajutorul chestionarelor am aflat că:- 56,7% dintre părinţi cunosc Piramida alimentaţiei;- 47,3% dintre părinţi au auzit de PNPO la copil.Revista Română de Statistică – Supliment Trim IV/2012 427

Ancheta nutriţionalăDin ancheta efectuată am evidenţiat doar consumul crescut de alimente.Alimente Zilnic Cel puţin o data pe OcazionalsaptămânăCereale 17,9% 63% 19,1%Fructe 68% 28% 4%Legume 57% 31,3% 11,7%Lapte şi derivate din 63% 22% 15%lapteCarne şi derivate din 45% 32,4% 22,6%carneDulciuri 79,3% 16,4% 4,3%Fast - food 58,5% 32,3% 9.2%90.00%80.00%79.30%70.00%60.00%63.00%68.00%57.00%63.00%58.50%50.00%45.00%40.00%31.30%32.40%32.30%30.00%28.00%17.90%20.00%19.10%22.00%22.60%15.00%16.40%10.00%11.70%9.20%4.00%4.30%0.00%Cereale Fructe Legume Lapte Carne Dulciuri Fast - foodzilnico data /sapt.ocazionalAncheta asupra activităţii fizice desfăşurateAm constatat că 62% din subiecţi participă la orele de educaţie fizică, 25%participă dar nu le place şi 13 % sunt scutiţi de orele de educaţie fizică. În timpul orelor deeducaţie fizică 36,4% din copiii supraponderali şi 22,4% din cei obezi obosesc mai mult întimpul efortului fizic.Obiective- Întocmirea şi aplicarea unor programe de promovare a unui stil de viaţăsănătos.- Realizarea unor activităţi educaţionale pe tema obezităţii şisupraponderalităţii şi a prevenirii acestora.- Elaborarea de jocuri , activităţi de educaţie sanitară care să stimuleze unregim de viaţă echilibrat.428Revista Română de Statistică – Supliment Trim IV/2012

ConcluziiAm observat un consum excesiv de dulciuri 79,3% şi de produse fast – food58,5% în detrimentul cerealelor 17,9%În urma anchetei privind activitatea fizică am observat ca 62% dintre subieţiparticipă la orele de educaţie fizică. Copiii supraponderali şi obezi desfăşoară activităţifizice uşoare, care nu necesită effort fizic deosebit.Greutatea la naştere mai mică de 2800g sau mai mare de 4000 g s-a corelat cu unrisc mai mare de obezitate la copii.S-a observat un abuz alimentar cantitativ dar şi calitativ asociat cu scădereaactivităţii fizice, sedentarismul putând fi cauza surplusului ponderal.Profilaxia obezităţii la copil se poate realiza identificând barierele de mediu şieducaţionale prin implicarea tuturor persoanelor , începând cu familia, educatorul cuajutorul medicului de familie.Bibliografie selectivă[1]. Barlow Sarah E., the Expert Committee. Expert Committee Recommendations[2]. Regarding the Prevention, Assessment, and Treatment of Child and Adolescent[3]. Overweight and Obesity: Summary Report, Pediatrics 2007; 120:S164-S192.[4]. Popa Ioan, Brega Daniela, Alexa Aurora. Obezitatea copilului şi ţesutului adipos,[5]. Editura Mirton, Timişoara, 2001.[6]. Moreno L., Pigeot A., Wolfgang A., Epidemiology of Obesity in Children and[7]. Adolescents. Prevalence and Etiology, Springer Series on Epidemiology and PublicHealth[8]. Vol. 2, 1st Edition, ISBN 978-1-4419-6038-2, 2011, access: http://www.spring.com.[9]. Babinski K. – „Optimizarea procesului de învăţământ”, Ed. Didactică şi Pedagogică.Bucureşti, 1979 .[10]. Bontaş I. – PEDAGOGIE , Ed. ALL Educaţonal, Bucureşti 1998.[11]. Colibaba – Evuleţ, D., Bota I, „Jocuri sportive. Teoris şi metodică” Ed. Aladin,Bucureşti 1998.[12]. VERZEA E., ŞCHIOPU U. – Psihologia vârstelor, ciclurile vieţii, Ed. Didactică şiPedagogică, R.A. Bucureşti 1995Revista Română de Statistică – Supliment Trim IV/2012 429

Evolution regarding the Reform of IndustryStatistics in the Republic of MoldaviaProfessor Ion PÂRŢACHI PhDipartachi@ase.mdAcademy of Economic Studies of Moldavia – ChișinăuOleg CARA PhD Studentoleg.cara@yahoo.comNational Institute for Statistics of MoldaviaAbstractIn order to adapt industrial statistics to the conditions of market economy andinternational standards, especially within the EU, a series of notable improvements wererealized, for the system of indicators, their calculation methodology and for the system ofstatistical researches.This paper discusses the improvements in the field of industry statistics, regardingthe elaboration and implementation in the national statistic practice of new calculationmethodologies for the industrial production index, to measure the evolution of industrialactivity, according to EU and UN standards.Key words: standards, industry, index, compliance, productionJEL Classification: C10, C18Deşi cercetarea anuală a producţiei industriale, care are scopul de a obţine cea maicompletă informaţie privind activitatea industrială a întreprinderilor atât ca gen principal,cât şi secundar este una cu tradiţie îndelungată, în ultimul timp, gradual au fost realizateîmbunătăţiri spectaculoase, punând baza obţinerii datelor comparabile la nivel european.O condiţie importantă a alinierii statisticii industriei la noile condiţii a constat înpunerea în aplicare a clasificărilor statistice internaţionale, în special a nomenclatoruluiproduselor industriale. Perfecţionarea graduală a sistemului de indicatori, în special privindvolumul şi valoarea producţiei livrate pe piaţa interna si pe piaţa externa a permisdezvoltarea şi implementarea noilor metodologii de calcul a unui indicator de bază carecaracterizează evoluţia activităţii industriale – indicele producţiei industriale-, pus înaplicare din anul 2011.1. Elaborarea şi implementarea noii metodologii de calcul a IndiceluiProducţiei Industriale (IPI)Indicele producţiei industriale: abordări teoretice şi practice pe planinternaţionalIndicele producţiei industriale (IPI) reflectă evoluţia activităţii industriale şiconstituie unul din indicatorii cheie ce caracterizează performanţele economice ale uneiţări 1 . Destinaţia IPI este, în particular, identificarea punctelor de cotitură în activitateaeconomică la etapa incipientă .1 Anghelache, C. (2009) – „Indicatori macroeconomici utilizaţi în comparabilitatea internaţională”,430Revista Română de Statistică – Supliment Trim IV/2012

Obiectivul indicelui producţiei industriale este măsurarea schimbării în timp avolumului producţiei cu frecvenţă înaltă şi la intervale egale de timp. IPI oferă măsuraevoluţiei valorii adăugate pe o perioadă de referinţă dată. Formula teoretică a indiceluiproducţiei (Q) este un indice de volum de tip Laspeyres, calculat după formula :QNpi , o * qi , t Li 1j 1t NM ( 0 )pi , o * qi , o M ( t ) j,o * j,t j,o * j,0i 1j 1,unde:q - cantitatea produsă,p - preţul de producţie,α - preţurile materialelor consumate,δ - cantităţile materialelor consumate,i - una din produsele N,j - una din materialele consumate M,0 - perioada de bază,t - perioada curentă.Indicele producţiei este o măsură teoretică, care trebuie aproximată prin măsuripractice, întrucât, în realitate, datele necesare pentru compilarea unui astfel de indice, pebază lunară, nu sunt disponibile.”De aceea, marea provocare pentru statisticieni este de aobţine cea mai potrivită aproximare a evoluţiei pe termen scurt a valorii adăugate”.Conform Recomandărilor ONU privind Indicele Producţiei Industriale, există douăabordări de măsurare a volumului, bazate pe utilizarea variabilelor ce caracterizează:Rezultatele/produsele activităţii industriale, reprezentate:- În expresie monetară/valorică (de exemplu valoarea producţieiindustriale: produse, vândute/livrate);- În cantităţi fizice (de exemplu cantitatea extrasă de cărbune, petrol, gaz,producerea energiei electrice );Consumurile de:- Muncă (de exemplu numărul de ore lucrate sau numărul mediu depersoane ocupate echivalent normă întreagă);- Materiale, atât exprimate valoric, cât şi în cantităţi fizice (de exempluconsumul de energie electrică, care istoric a fost folosit pentru măsurareaevoluţiei producţiei pentru anumite activităţi industriale).La rândul său, pentru măsurarea evoluţiei volumului producţiei industriale suntutilizate procedurile de:- Deflatare;- Extrapolare.În calitate de deflatori pentru calcularea IPI se utilizează indicii de preţ relevanţi.Metoda extrapolării este bazată pe utilizarea cantităţilor fizice de producţieobţinute sau consumate şi este potrivită pentru produsele omogene. Astfel, această metodă,are un areal de utilizare redus faţă de metoda deflatării, fiind aplicată în special înindustriile de minerit/ extracţie, precum şi de producere a energiei electrice.Conferinţa a 57-a „Statistica – trecut, prezent şi viitor”, ISBN 978-90-73592-29-2, Durban, articolcotat ISIRevista Română de Statistică – Supliment Trim IV/2012 431

În baza analizei experienţei statelor UE pot fi evidenţiate trei metode principale decompilare a IPI:Metoda 1 – prin măsurarea rezultatelor activităţii întreprinderilor industriale pe ansamblu,exprimate prin valoarea producţiei obţinute sau comercializate (livrate), cifrei de afacerietc. Ulterior, pentru producerea indicelui de volum este utilizată metoda deflatării, prinaplicarea indicelui de preţ relevant;Metoda 2 – prin măsurarea valorii însăşi a produselor industriale obţinute, destinatevânzării sau efectiv livrate. Ulterior, pentru producerea indicelui de volum este utilizatămetoda deflatării, prin aplicarea indicelui preţurilor producţiei industriale;Metoda 3 – prin măsurarea cantităţii fizice a producţiei industriale obţinute de întreprinderi(exprimate în tone, litri, bucăţi, etc.), la nivel de produs.Suplimentar la metodele de bază mai sunt aplicate două metode suplimentare:Metoda 4 – prin măsurarea numărului de ore lucrate;Metoda 5 – prin măsurarea cantităţii fizice (sau valorii deflatate) a materialelor consumate(materiei prime, energiei electrice sau altor resurse energetice).Metodele menţionate au anumite avantaje, dar şi dezavantaje, iar cele mai multeţări folosesc o combinaţie de metode, în dependenţă de genul specific de activitate, cu unadin primele trei metode de bază dominante.2. Calculul indicelui producţiei industriale pînă în anul 2011.Până în anul 2011 calcularea IPI realizată de Biroul Naţional de Statistică a fostbazată pe datele privind valoarea producţiei industriale în preţuri curente şi comparabile(ale anului precedent), furnizate nemijlocit de către întreprinderile cu genul principal deactivitate industrial.Astfel, respondenţilor le revenea o sarcină dificilă de recalculare, cu regularitatelunară a volumelor producţiei obţinute în perioada de raportare, cu aplicarea preţurilormedii ale anului precedent. Aceasta avea impact negativ atât asupra sarcinii de răspuns aîntreprinderilor, cât şi asupra calităţii datelor statistice, întrucât nu permitea BirouluiNaţional de Statistică (BNS) de a efectua evaluarea calităţii datelor furnizate de unităţi lanivel dezagregat.Precum se vede, metoda compilării IPI, practicată în ţara noastră nu se încadra niciîn una din metodele avansate practicate de alte state. Plus la aceasta, modalitatea deculegere a datelor de la întreprinderi de asemenea nu corespundea bunelor practicieuropene, bazate pe organizarea observărilor statistice prin metoda de sondaj, cu utilizareaunor chestionare ”prietenoase” respondenţilor.Prin urmare, era stringentă necesitatea elaborării şi implementării noii metodologiide calcul a IPI, precum şi perfecţionarea modalităţii de colectare a datelor de la entităţi înconformitate cu recomandările internaţionale şi bunele practici ale altor state, în special aleUE, ţinând, totodată cont de particularităţile ţării noastre.Analiza celor cinci metode principale de compilare a IPI, aplicate pe plan europeana pus în evidenţă relevanţa pentru realităţile ţării noastre a metodei a doua – bazate pemăsurarea valorii însăşi a produselor industriale obţinute, cu utilizarea deflatării, prinaplicarea indicelui preţurilor producţiei industriale. Avantajul metodei în cauză faţă deprima metodă descrisă mai sus constă în faptul, că oferă o aproximare mai reuşită a IPI şiposibilitatea obţinerii imaginii corecte a sectorului industrial „pe activităţi omogene” şi nudupă principalul gen de activitate, ca în cazul primei metode.Metodele 3-5 aplicate de unele ţări europene au o relevanţă redusă pentruRepublica Moldova, ţinînd cont de genurile de activitate caracteristice industriei ţării432Revista Română de Statistică – Supliment Trim IV/2012

noastre, eterogenitatea producţiei, schimbările structurale importante frecvente în ramuraindustrială.3. Descrierea noii metodologii de compilare a IPIMetoda utilizată. Pentru aproximarea cît mai potrivită a măsurii teoretice a IPIpentru calcularea practică a indicelui în cauză a fost stabilită procedura de evaluare, la nivelelementar, a produselor industriale, cu deflatarea ulterioară pe baza indicelui preţurilor înindustrie şi utilizarea în calitate de ponderi la compilarea IPI a structurii valorii adăugatebrute pentru activităţile industriale.Sfera de cuprindere a activităţii industriale şi implicit a IPI corespunde cerinţelorONU şi UE şi cuprinde: industria extractivă, prelucrătoare, energie electrică şi termică,gaze şi apă, respectiv diviziunile 10 – 41 ale Clasificatorului Activităţilor din EconomiaMoldovei (CAEM, Rev 1, alineat la standardul european NACE Rev. 1.1).Nomenclatoare utilizate. Pentru elaborarea indicelui producţiei industriale seutilizează următoarele clasificări/nomenclatoare, armonizate la standardele UE:- Nomenclatorul de produse şi servicii industriale PRODMOLD.- Clasificatorul Activităţilor din Economia Moldovei (CAEM).- Clasificatorul Statistic al Produselor (bunurilor si serviciilor), CSPM.- Gruparea „Principalele grupe industriale”.Calculul IPI la nivelul elementar – pentru produsul PRODMOLD (9 semne alejpr ccodului), în preţuri curente –IPI .se efectuează după formula:IPIjpr . cVVjpr . c ( T )jpr . c ( T1)*1000,unde:IPI j pr.c - indicele valorii produsului PRODMOLD j în perioada de raport (T 1 ) faţă deperioada de bază (T 0 ), în preţuri curente;V j pr.c(T1) - valoarea produsului j fabricat la preţuri curente (de livrare), în perioada curentă(T1);V j pr.c(T0) - valoarea produsului j fabricat la preţuri curente (de livrare) în perioada de bază(T 0 ), calculat ca o medie lunară din cele 12 luni ale anului de bază.Calculul indicelui valorii producţiei în preţuri curente la nivelul grupului deGppr cproduse (6 semne ale codului PRODMOLD, în conformitate cu CSPM -IPI .secalculează după formula:jj. *Gp IPI pr c W ( T 0 )IPI pr . c j W( T 0 ),unde:W j (T0) - valoarea produsului fabricat j (la preturi curente de livrare) în cadrul grupului deproduse în anul de bază T 0 .Calculul indicelui valorii producţiei în preţuri curente la nivelul clasei CAEM (4 semne aleClpr ccodului) –IPI .se efectuează după formula:GpGp. *Cl IPI pr c W ( T 0 )IPI pr . c Gp W( T 0 ),Revista Română de Statistică – Supliment Trim IV/2012 433

unde:W Gp (T0) - valoarea grupului de produse fabricate Gp în cadrul clasei CAEMClCalculul indicelui de volum, IPI vol ,se efectuează prin deflatarea indiceluivalorii producţiei în preţuri curente la nivelul clasei CAEM cu indicele preţurilor producţieiindustriale pentru aceeaşi clasă, aplicând formula:IPIClvolIPIIPPIClpr . c ( T 1)Cl( T 1),unde:IPPI Cl (T1) - indicele preţurilor producţiei industriale pentru clasa CAEM în perioada T1.Calcularea IPI pentru nivelele superioare ale CAEM se efectuează prin aplicareaponderilor asupra indicilor nivelelor inferioare.În calitate de ponderi, la nivelul grupei CAEM (3 semne ale codului CAEM) esteutilizată valoarea producţiei la nivelul clasei (4 semne ale codului CAEM). Formula deGrIPI vol este:calcul a indicelui producţiei pentru grupa CAEM (3 semne ale codului) -ClCl*Gr IPI vol W prod ( T 0 )IPI vol Cl Wprod ( T 0 ),unde:ClW prod (T 0)- valoarea producţiei clasei CAEM în anul de bază.Analog, se calculează indicii de producţie pentru diviziunile (2 semne ale codului) şisecţiunile (literele C,D şi E) CAEM.TotCalcularea IPI pentru nivelul superior al CAEM, pe total industrie - IPI vol seefectuează pe baza formulei de calcul:SecSecTot IPI vol * W VAB ( T 0 )IPI vol Sec WVAB ( T 0 ),unde:SecW VAB(T 0)- valoarea adăugată brută a secţiunii CAEM în perioada de bază.Indicii pe termen lung exprimă raportul producţiei din luna curentă faţă de mediaanului de bază (anul de bază =100).Indicii pe termen scurt reflectă evoluţia producţiei în luna curentă în raport cu lunaprecedentă (IPI T/T-1 ) şi se calculează prin raport al indicelui lunii curente faţă de medialunară a anului de bază IPI T/O la indicele lunii precedente faţă de media lunară a anului debază IPI T-1/0 ., după formula următoare:IPI T/T-1= IPI T/0 ⁄ IPI T-1/0 ,unde :IPI T/0 – indicele producţiei lunii curente faţă de media lunară a anului de bază;IPI T-1/0 – indicele producţiei lunii precedente faţă de media lunară a anului de bază.Calculele se efectuează pentru toate nivelele de agregare după formulele de maisus.Elaborarea noii metodologii de calcul a IPI a fost o continuare logică aimplementării listei de produse industriale PRODMOLD şi a calculării indicelui preţurilor434Revista Română de Statistică – Supliment Trim IV/2012

producătorului (indicelui preţurilor producţiei industriale) în corespundere cu standardeleUE.Adaptarea de mai departe a statisticilor pe termen scurt, inclusiv în industrie lanormele şi bunele practici europene, a dictat necesitatea re-designului cercetărilor statistice.Această sarcină a fost realizată prin implementarea, din ianuarie 2011 a cercetării integratepe termen scurt.Un indice mediu anual se calculează ca medie aritmetică simplă din indicii lunaripe termen lung. Indice mediu pe perioada de la începutul anului se calculează identic ca celmediu anual din lunile respective.Actualizarea sistemului de ponderi şi re-ponderareaPonderile elaborate pentru anul de bază şi utilizate în calcul îşi pierd actualitatea,urmare a evoluţiei diferite în cadrul activităţilor economice şi, prin urmare, a modificăriistructurii industriei pe activităţi. Diferenţa creşte pe măsura îndepărtării anului de calcul deanul bază, ceea ce influenţează negativ calitatea indicelui. De aceea este necesarăactualizarea regulată a ponderilor utilizate pentru compilarea IPI .Conform cerinţelor şi practicii statelor UE schimbarea/actualizarea anului de bazăse efectuează o dată la 5 ani, în calitate de ani de bază fiind luaţi anii ce se termină cu „0 “şi “5 “. Indicii urmează a fi recalculaţi în bază nouă timp de trei ani după finele anului debază .Totodată pentru acurateţea datelor este recunoscut faptul, că este preferabilăactualizarea cât mai frecventă – anuală a sistemului de ponderi, pentru a ţine cont destructura efectivă a economiei.Schimbarea anului de bază, la rândul său, implică necesitatea înlănţuirii indicilor –legării seriilor de indici în ponderi vechi cu cei în ponderi noi pentru a asigura continuitateaseriilor de indici. În acest scop se stabileşte perioada de suprapunere în care sunt calculaţiindicii în două sisteme de ponderi (vechi şi noi). Pentru această perioadă se calculeazăcoeficientul de raport intre indicele in pondere veche si indicele in pondere noua, care apoieste aplicat pentru indicii calculaţi în noile ponderi, proces numit re-ponderare.Date statistice armonizate privind IPI sunt elaborate şi prezentate, de la momentulimplementării noii metodologii – începând cu ianuarie 2011, cu regularitate lunarăutilizatorilor, în conformitate cu prevederile PLS.Bibliografie selectivă[1]. Anghelache C. Tratat de statistică teoretică şi economică. Bucureşti: EdituraEconomică, 2008[2]. Cara O. Implementarea Codului de bune practici al statisticilor europene în RepublicaMoldova. Revista Română de Statistică. 2010, nr. 10[3]. *** Metodologia de calcul a indicelui producţiei industriale. Biroul Naţional deStatistică. 2010: http://www.statistica.md/public/files/Metadate/alte/Metod_IPI.pdfhttp://www.statistica.md/methodology.php?lang=ro&sw=sem&id=25[4]. *** PEEIs in focus. A summary for the industrial production index. Luxembourg:European Commission. 2006Revista Română de Statistică – Supliment Trim IV/2012 435

Consultancy Services for SMEs’ MarketProfessor Constantin CODERIE PhDcoderie@gmail.com“Artifex” University of BucharestAbstractTo define the portfolio of a service-oriented company, some consultants founduseful the development and offer for a special product, different from the services andproducts available for other consultants.It is easy to realize that such special product (which can be a training package, abusiness diagnosis tool, an information system etc.) can represent the competitiveadvantage of the consultant if it satisfies a need perceived by the customer, and if theconsultant is successful in product marketing. Such special product must be different fromthe comparable products provided by other consultants, or superior. The difference must bereal, not fictive.Key words: company portfolio, consultant, SME, market competition, consultancycompanyJEL Classification: L10Pentru consultanţii care deservesc piaţa IMM, există probleme speciale bazateurmătoareaanaliza românească:1. Caracteristicile speciale ale IMM:- Dificultate în a face faţă nesiguranţei mediului economic- Dependenţa de un singur client major- Mare flexibilitate privind răspunsul la oportunităţi- Multiple funcţiuni pentru o singură persoană în schema organizaţională- Un răspuns reactiv la mediul extern- Rata mare a cifrei de afaceri aferentă angajaţilor- Structură managerială şi organizaţională slabă- Uşurinţă în coordonarea diferitelor activităţi- Activităţi slab structurate- Coeziunea echipei- “Experienţă proprie de învăţare”- Lipsă de planuri pe termen mediu şi lung- Posibilităţi reduse de dezvoltare a produselor proprii- Cash-flow slab- Limite financiare pentru motivarea şi dezvoltarea personalului- Dificultăţi în diversificarea produselor/serviciilor- Concurenţa cu marile firme- Putere de negociere diminuată- Acces redus la resursele financiare- Aptitudini manageriale reduse; proprietarul este şi manager în acelaşitimp436Revista Română de Statistică – Supliment Trim IV/2012

- Reprezentare slabă- Organigramă plată (structura organizaţională)- Capitalism sărac- Expunere crescută la risc- Creştere rapidă – oportunităţi de dezvoltare2. Problemele generate de aceste caracteristici:- Personal neinstruit- Dificultăţi în accesarea fondurilor de dezvoltare- Oportunităţi reduse pentru dezvoltare- Dificultăţi faţă de competiţia cu alte firme- Avantaje contractuale reduse- Vulnerabilitate mare faţă de schimbările pieţei- Posibilităţi slabe de delegare- Dificultăţi în păstrarea personalului cu rezultate de înalt nivel- Dificultăţi în respectarea termenelor de predare (management defectuosal timpului)- Dificultăţi în identificarea şi păstrarea avantajelor competitive- Dificultăţi în respectarea standardelor ridicate de calitate pentru serviciileoferite unui client- Obligativitatea obţinerii unui certificat recunoscut- Risipa de resurse- Deciziile manageriale nu sunt fundamentate pe argumente ştiinţifice (suntmai mult intuitive)- Acces redus la noile tehnologii/licenţe- Motivare redusă a personalului- Acces redus la servicii externe de consultanţă (calitate înaltă)- Lipsa posibilităţii de auto-evaluare (pentru proprietari şi manageri)- Acces limitat la informaţie determinând accesul limitat la facilitate3. Cum poate ajuta consultanţa la rezolvarea acestor probleme?- Elaborarea planului de afaceri- Evaluarea şi oferirea alternativelor- Efectuarea cercetărilor de piaţă- Identificarea surselor de finanţare- Asistenţă pentru managementul financiar- Alcătuirea pachetului de instrumente pentru monitorizarea indicatorilorde performanţă- Sfaturi la faliment- Pachete de instruire- Plan de dezvoltare- Instruire individuală- Identificarea colaboratorilor specializaţi- Instrumente manageriale adaptabile- Căutarea de clienţi- Informaţii privind aspecte financiare şi de calitate- Identificarea avantajului competitiv şi asigurarea eficienţei- Identificarea portofoliului de produse/servicii- Diversificarea serviciilor.Revista Română de Statistică – Supliment Trim IV/2012 437

Din discuţia ce derivă, facilitată de instructor, principalele aspecte identificate suntprezentate mai jos. Experienţa a arătat că aceste aspecte şi probleme sunt comune tuturorţărilor aflate în acelaşi stadiu de dezvoltare ca România.- Structură organizaţională limitată „omul orchestră”- Capacitate managerială limitată si structură organizaţională slabă- Acces limitat la resurse- Timp limitat pentru cercetare- Atenţia concentrată adesea pe un- Sistem informaţional managerial slab- Presiune asupra timpului managerului- Orientare în funcţie de reacţii mai degrabă decât pe bază de plan- Acces limitat la resurse externe- Recrutare, instruire şi păstrarea personalului- Vulnerabilitate cauzată de fluctuaţiile desingur produs- Deservirea adesea numai a pieţei locale.- Concurenţa nedreaptă a firmelor mariÎn ciuda tuturor acestor greutăţi, piaţa IMM pentru consultanţă nu poate fi ignoratăde firmele mici de consultanţă. IMM sunt viitoarele mari firme. Ele îmbrăţişează inovatoriipentru viitor. Însă piaţa nu poate fi deservită de abordări de tip academic în ceea ce priveşteinstruirea sau dezvoltarea strategiei. În esenţă, IMM nu au şi nici nu pot avea de regulă operspectivă pe termen lung asupra soluţionării problemelor de afaceri sau asupra dezvoltăriiafacerii. Problemele sunt de cele mai multe ori imediate şi presante şi soluţiile sunt necesarepe loc. Astfel, produsele de consultanţă dezvoltate şi vândute pe piaţa IMM trebuie să aibăo perioadă scurtă de rambursare. Ele trebuie să se bazeze, dacă se poate, pe realităţilefirmei, iar produsul trebuie să fie corespunzător sarcinii şi nu unei abordări generale.În multe ţări şi chiar pe pieţe internaţionale, organizaţiile mari de consultanţă şipracticienii izolaţi operează împreună. Diferite firme au înregistrat creşteri prin mijloaceproprii şi, în multe cazuri, nu a fost urmărită vreo strategie specială de creştere. Viziunea şispiritul antreprenorial al fondatorului sau partenerului administrativ, precum şi bunelerezultate avute în marketing şi livrarea serviciilor, au constituit principalii factori decreştere, alături de un climat favorabil pentru afaceri.Totuşi, trebuie avute în vedere dimensiunea firmei şi rata creşterii atunci când sedefineşte strategia. Aceste aspecte trebuie examinate în legătură cu gama de servicii oferite,cu acoperirea geografică şi sectorială, cu evaluarea pieţei, concurenţei existente şi îndezvoltare, resursele firmei de consultanţă şi capacitatea sa de a susţine creşterea în acelaşitimp cu menţinerea sau îmbunătăţirea calităţii serviciilor.Unele firme de consultanţă au optat în mod deliberat pentru o dimensiune redusă şinu încearcă să o depăşească. Acest lucru se justifică adesea printr-o combinaţie de factoriumani şi manageriali, incluzând dorinţa de a păstra o echipă profesională coerentă ăn cadrulcăreia indivizii să poate interacţiona unul cu altul şi să se poată folosi o structură simplă demanagement. Pe altă parte, dimensiunea a devenit o constrângere pentru multe firme mici.Ele văd oportunităţi de consultanţă perfect potrivite potenţialului lor tehnic, însănu le pot atrage din cauza importanţei clientului, mărimii contractului şi numărului deconsultanţi ce trebuie alocaţi proiectului.Este imposibilă determinarea unei dimensiuni optime pentru o consultanţă subformă de concept teoretic. În schimb este necesară examinarea existenţei coerenţei întrealegerile şi planurile strategice ale firmei şi dimensiunile ei curente şi previzionate. Aceastăanaliză poate dezvălui faptul că nu există motive de creştere sau, din contră, că firma438Revista Română de Statistică – Supliment Trim IV/2012

trebuie să crească dacă doreşte să atragă noi pieţe, să dezvolte noi linii de servicii şi săsatisfacă ambiţiile personalului.Principalele întrebări pe care si le pune firma de consultanta sunt:- Ce doreşte să realizeze firma noastră de consultanţă ca afacere?- Ar trebui ca strategia noastră să asigure numai supravieţuirea, o creşteremoderată sau o expansiune rapidă?- Care sunt cerinţele şi concurenţa pieţei serviciilor de consultanţă pe caredorim să le satisfacem?- Ce fel de câştiguri şi profituri ar trebui să realizăm?- Care ar trebui să fie independenţa şi puterea financiară a firmei noastre?Focalizarea în exclusivitate asupra ţelurilor comerciale poate omorî firma dinpunct de vedere profesional. Ignorarea laturii de afaceri a strategiei poate submina sănătateafinanciară a firmei, iar strategiile profesionale propuse ar putea deveni de neatins.Bibliografie selectivă[1]. Business Week, 2012[2]. Sloan Management Review, 2010-2012Revista Română de Statistică – Supliment Trim IV/2012 439

Some Elements regarding the Benefits of the PublicPensions SystemProfessor Constantin MITRUŢ PhDcmitrut@ase.roAcademy of Economic Studies, BucharestProfessor Constantin ANGHELACHE PhDactincon@yahoo.com“Artifex” University of Bucharest /Academy of Economic Studies, BucharestAna ANTON CARP PhDkarp_ana@yahoo.comAdina Mihaela DINU PhD Studentdinu_adina_cnmv@yahoo.comAcademy of Economic Studies, BucharestAbstractPensions represent the restitution modality of contributions paid during thesubscription period, as a quota of the replacement income, determined on the basis of thecalculation method specific to each country, algorithm and formula established by law,depending on national and universal principles and criteria. According to the branches ofsocial security, pensions can be: age limit, anticipate (partially anticipate); invalidity anddescendant.Key words: pension, retribution, indices, Gini quotient, adjustment procedure1. Pensiile şi evoluţia tipurilor de pensiiPensiile reprezintă modalitatea de restituire a contribuţiilor plătite în perioada decotizare, sub forma unei cote din venitul înlocuit, determinată pe baza metodei de calculspecifică fiecărei ţări, a algoritmului şi formulei de calcul stabilite prin lege în funcţie deprincipii şi criterii naţionale şi universale.Potrivit ramurilor securităţii sociale, pensiile pot fi de următoarele tipuri: debătrâneţe; (limită de vârstă); anticipată (parţial anticipată); de invaliditate şi de urmaş.Aceste tipuri de pensii sunt în concordanţă cu riscurile acoperite şi suntadministrate prin sistemul de asigurări sociale. Pentru a evalua şi previziona nivelurilepensiilor trebuie avute în vedere cele două proceduri principale de calcul: stabilireapensiilor şi actualizarea pensiilor.Ele sunt proceduri permanente. Stabilirea pensiilor constă în calculul pensiilorpentru noii intraţi în sistem prin pensionare, iar actualizarea este procedura de ajustare apensiilor deja stabilite la valori actuale.În cazul pensiilor principala metodă de estimare este metoda modelului deregresie pe baza factorilor de influenţă, corelată cu metoda normativă. Pentru elaborareamodelului de regresie o primă etapă este analiza statisticilor descriptive şi a histogramelor.În perioada 1990-2010, pensia medie de asigurări sociale (incluzând şi agricultorii)a fost de 176,5 lei, iar valoarea mediană a fost de 72,6 lei. Pe fondul unui proces inflaţionist440Revista Română de Statistică – Supliment Trim IV/2012

accelerat înregistrat începând cu anul 1991, statisticile descriptive nu oferă o imagine aevoluţiei reale a pensiilor.În primii 14 ani valoarea pensiei medii s-a situat sub 200 lei, în următorii 4 ani afost sub 400 lei, iar în anii 2007-2010 creşterea a fost mare, ajungând la valoarea de 716 lei.Gruparea procentuală simplă şi cumulativă din seria de date observate a variabilei pensiamedie de asigurări sociale (stat şi agricultori) pentru perioda 1990-2010 ne arată că înprimii 14 ani începând cu anul 1990 pensia medie s-a situat în intervalul până la 200 lei, iarîn ultimii 2 ani media s-a situat în intervalul valoric 600-800 lei.Tabulation of PENSIA_M_STAT_AGRICDate: 07/08/11 Time: 23:52Sample: 1990 2010Included observations: 21Number of categories: 4Cumulative CumulativeValue Count Percent Count Percent[0, 200) 14 66.67 14 66.67[200, 400) 4 19.05 18 85.71[400, 600) 1 4.76 19 90.48[600, 800) 2 9.52 21 100.00Total 21 100.00 21 100.00Pensiile de asigurări sociale au crescut linear până în anul 2006. Perioada 1998-2004 corespunde unui proces amplu de recorelare a pensiilor stabilite înainte de aprilie2001. În anii 2007-2008 creşterea pensiilor este explicată ca efect al mai multor iniţiativelegislative. Pentru pensionarii care aveau vechime realizată înainte de anul 1963,punctajele anuale ale acelor perioade au fost majorate prin calcularea pe baza salariuluimediu brut ca urmare a modificării legislative din anul 2007.În anul 2008 a început majorararea pensiilor pentru persoanele care au realizatstagii de cotizare în grupe superioare de muncă. Tot în acel an s-a încheiat teoreticprocedura de recalculare a pensiilor pentru persoanele pensionate înainte de aprilie 2001.Procedura de recalculare a fost prelungită până la sfârşitul anului 2010 cu acordareadrepturilor în cadrul termenului legal de prescripţie de 3 ani. Procedura de recalculareîncepută prin evaluare în anul 2004 face ca identificarea factorilor de influenţă a creşteriipensiilor să fie mai dificilă. Recalcularea repetată pentru aceeaşi persoană ori de câte oriintra în posesia unui document nou referitor la veniturile brute realizate a fost o perioadă destagnare în evoluţia calitativă a sistemului de pensii în ansamblu şi care continuă.În perioada 2001-2010 pensia medie de asigurări sociale a avut valoarea medie de396 lei, situată între un nivel minim de 312 lei şi 778 lei.Pensiile agricultorilorScăderea numărului de pensionari agricultori în ultimii 10 ani cu peste 1 milion depersoane şi puterea scăzută de cumpărare a pensiilor agricultorilor faţă de cea a pensiilordin sectorul de stat a determinant guvernanţii să adopte măsuri legislative pentru creştereanivelului pensiilor agricultorilor. Se constată o creştere semnificativă la nivelul anului2004, ca rezultat al majorării pensiilor din sistemul public provenite din sistemul deasigurări sociale al agricultorilor. Creşterea medie a fost de la 38,49 lei (în anul 2003) laRevista Română de Statistică – Supliment Trim IV/2012 441

73,77 lei în anul 2004. Saltul major al pensiilor agricultorilor s-a realizat în anul 2008, caefect al măsurilor legislative luate în anul precedent. Începând cu septembrie 2007,punctajul anual pentru fiecare an util realizat în cadrul fostelor unităţi agricole cooperatiste,precum şi pentru anii de contribuţie realizaţi de ţăranii cu gospodărie individuală din zonelenecooperativizate s-a modificat de la 0,25 puncte/an la 0,57255 puncte/an, ceea ce a avut caefect o creştere a pensiei medii de la 159 lei la 253 lei.La nivelul anului 2010 pensia medie a pensionarilor agricultori era de 309 lei.Pensiile de invaliditateDreptul la pensie de invaliditate este acordat asiguraţilor care şi-au pierdut totalsau cel puţin jumătate din capacitatea de muncă, din cauza accidentelor de muncă, a bolilorprofesionale şi tuberculozei, a bolilor obişnuite şi accidentelor care nu au legătură cumunca. Acordarea pensiilor de invaliditate este condiţionată de producerea cel puţin aunuia dintre aceste riscuri şi de regulă şi de stagiul de cotizare realizat în raport de vârsta lacare a intervenit riscul de invaliditate. În mod excepţional, pentru o serie de categoriiprecum persoanele care satisfac stagiul militar, elevii practicanţi, ucenicii sau studenţii potbeneficia de pensie de invaliditate. Cuantumurile pensiilor de invaliditate se stabilesc înfuncţie de stagiul realizat, de stagiul necesar de cotizare şi de tipul de invaliditate în careeste încadrat riscul produs.Există categorii de pensionari de invaliditate care şi-au realizat stagiul complet decotizare, dar la data producerii invalidităţii nu aveau vârsta pentru a beneficia de pensiepentru limită de vârstă cu stagiul complet de cotizare. Pentru aceste categorii de pensionari,pensiile sunt egale cu pensia de limită de vârstă dacă ar fi avut acest drept. În formula decalcul a pensiilor de invaliditate legiuitorul a prevăzut în mod corect compensarea stagiuluipotenţial pe care l-ar fi putut realiza asiguratul dacă nu se producea riscul de invaliditateprin acordarea de punctaje aferente stagiului potenţial, diferenţiate pe tipuri de invalidităţi.Dacă la nivelul anului 2001 pensiile de invaliditate erau corespunzătoare punctajelor mediianuale de 0,91393 puncte ( gr.I), 0,75325 puncte (gr.II) şi 0,49108 puncte (gr.III), ceea ceechivala cu 133 lei, 114 lei şi respectiv 77 lei, cuantumuri exprimate în lei Ron , începândcu anul 2005 raportul dintre cuantumurile medii ale celor trei tipuri de pensii de invaliditateeste diferit. Cuantumul mediu al pensiilor de invaliditate era în anul 2005 de 230 lei pentrupensiile de invaliditate de gr.I, 213 lei pentru pensiile de invaliditate de gr.II şi 203 leipentru pensiile de invaliditate de gr.III, corespunzătoare punctajelor medii anuale de0,77818 puncte, 0,72066 puncte şi 0,68683 puncte. Schimbarea raportului dintrecuantumurile pensiilor de invaliditate se datorează recalculării pensiilor din anul 2005, alstabilirii punctajelor medii anuale în baza actualului algoritm de calcul, al pensionărilorcategoriilor de asiguraţi cu stagii potenţiale reduse. La nivelul anului 2010, cuantumurilemedii erau de 559 lei, 564 lei şi 548 lei. Începând cu anul 2007 constatăm existenţa unorcuantumuri superioare ale pensiilor de invaliditate gr.II faţă de cuantumurile pensiilor deinvaliditate gr.I, ceea ce confirmă faptul că pensiile noi de invaliditate de gr.II şi gr.III nuau avut nevoie de stagii potenţiale semnificative, ci s-au produs cu stagii de cotizarerealizate apropiate de stagiile standard.Pensiile anticipatePensiile anticipate se acordă începând cu anul 2011 cu cel mult 5 ani înainteaîmplinirii vârstei standard de pensionare, persoanelor care au realizat un stagiu de cotizarecu cel puțin 8 ani mai mare decât stagiul complet de cotizare prevăzut de lege pentrugeneraţia din care fac parte. Singurul dezavantaj al pensiilor anticipate este nevalorificareastagiilor asimilate (armată, studii, alte stagii asimilate), care este o “penalizare” minoră înraport de acordarea pensiei cu 5 ani mai devreme. Sistarea pensionărilor anticipate peparcursul anului 2010, a fost recompensată de legiutor prin reducerea condiţiei de depăşire442Revista Română de Statistică – Supliment Trim IV/2012

a stagiului de la 10 ani în plus la 8 ani peste stagiul standard de cotizare. Din analizacomparativă a seriilor de date pe tipuri de pensii se constată situarea acestui tip de pensie cupuţin sub nivelul pensiilor pentru limită de vârstă şi vechime completă. La nivelul anului2010 pensia medie anticipată a crescut la 980 lei faţă de anul 2005 când se înregistra ovaloare medie de 391 lei.Pensiile anticipate parţialPensia anticipată parțială se cuvine, cu cel mult 5 ani înaintea împlinirii vârsteistandard de pensionare, persoanelor care au realizat stagiul complet de cotizare, precum şicelor care au depăşit stagiul complet de cotizare cu până la 8 ani. Acest tip de pensie estepenalizat începând cu anul 2011 cu diminuarea cuantumului cu 0,75% pentru fiecare lunăde anticipare, până la îndeplinirea condiţiilor de trecere la categoria de pensie pentru limităde vârstă. Nivelul cuantumurilor acestui tip de pensie de 696 lei cât s-a înregistrat în anul2010 reflectă aplicarea procentelor de diminuare progresive de la 0,05%/lună (între 9-10ani de anticipare) şi 0,50%/lună de anticipare (pentru un stagiu depăşit cu până la 1 an).În Uniunea Europeană acest tip de pensie este descurajat. Majorarea penalizării la0.75%/lună de anticipare indiferent de durata depăşirii stagiului de cotizare nu este openalizare mare având în vedere reducerea vârstei de pensionare cu maximum 60 de luni.Pensiile de urmaşDe pensii de urmaş beneficiază copiii şi soţul supravieţuitor în condiţiile prevăzutede lege. Cuantumurile scăzute ale pensiilor de urmaş sunt explicate prin faptul că maximumpe care îl poate obţine ca pensie urmaşul este de 50% din pensia pe care o avea titularul saula care avea dreptul. În cazul urmaşilor în concurenţă, un urmaş poate avea un procent de37,5% sau de 33,3% în funcţie de numărul urmaşilor aflaţi în concurenţă pentru obţineraeacestor drepturi. În anul 2010 pensia medie de urmaş era de 396 lei ceea ce situează acesttip de pensie peste jumătate din nivelul mediu al pensiei din sectorul de stat care era de 744lei în luna decembrie 2010.Pensiile de tip IOVRPensiile I.O.V.R. se acordă invalizilor, accidentaţilor de război, urmaşilor celormorţi în război, urmaşilor celor dispăruţi în război şi vaduvelor. Este un tip de pensie însumă fixă care se indexează prin lege. Evoluţia pensiilor I.O.V.R. prezentată în figura nr.46 arată o creştere a nivelului pensiei de la 131 lei în anul 2001 la 244 lei în anul 2010, ceeace reprezintă o creştere cu 86% în anul 2010 faţă de anul 2001. În ultimii 3 ani nivelulpensiilor de tip I.O.V.R. a cunoscut o uşoară scădere, ceea ce evidenţiază faptul căbeneficiarii acestui tip de pensie sunt persoane cu vârste înaintate care ies din sistem pe calenaturală.250Pensii IOVR20015010050090 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10IOVRFigura nr.1 - Evoluţia pensiilor IOVR, Sursa datelor:INSSERevista Română de Statistică – Supliment Trim IV/2012 443

Beneficiarii acestui tip de pensie sunt în cea mai mare parte femeile văduve alefoştilor veterani de război. Cheltuielile cu acest tip de pensie erau de 24,4 milioane lei lanivelul anului 2010.Ajutoare sociale de tip pensieÎncepând cu iulie 2008, ajutoarele sociale de tip pensie sunt incluse în categoriapensiilor de asigurări sociale. Numărul foarte mic al persoanelor care beneficiază de acesttip de pensie (1352 persoane la nivelul lunii decembrie 2010) ilustrează faptul că acesteareprezintă o formă de redistribuire bazată pe criterii sociale.200Ajutoare sociale1601208040090 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10BENEFICIARI AJUTOR SOCIALFigura nr.2 - Evoluţia ajutoarelor sociale, Sursa datelor:INSSENivelul scăzut al acestui tip de pensie de 193 lei la nivelul lunii decembrie 2010 nuimplică un efort bugetar semnificativ. Cheltuielile anuale cu acest tip de pensie erau de 3,12milioane lei la nivelul anului 2010.2. Modele de analiză a corelaţiei dintre salarii şi pensiiIndicatorul salariul brut prognozat este indicatorul de referinţă în determinareabazei de calcul a contribuţiei de asigurări sociale şi stă la baza fundamentării bugetuluiasigurărilor sociale.Începând cu aprilie 2001, corelaţia dintre salarii şi pensii pentru toţi pensionarii deasigurări sociale de stat s-a realizat prin intermediul indicatorului valoarea punctului depensie. Corelarea celor doi indicatori în perioada 2001-2010 ar trebui să se reflecte,conform dispoziţiilor legale, într-o marjă de 30%-50%. Începând cu anul 2009 corelaţia artrebui să fie de 45%.Estimarea variabilei pensia de asigurări sociale pe baza variabilei dependentesalariu mediu prognozat dă următorul model de regresie 1 :Estimation Command:=====================LS PENSIE_DE_ASIGURARI_SOCI SAL_PROGNOZA1 Anghelache, G.V., Anghelache, C., Prodan, L., Dumitrescu, D., Soare, D.V. „Elemente teoreticeprivind utilizarea modelului econometric de regresie multifactorială”, Scientific ResearchThemes/Studies Communications at the National Seminary „Octav Onicescu”, Romanian StatisticalReview Trim. 3/2012, pp. 221-231444Revista Română de Statistică – Supliment Trim IV/2012

Estimation Equation:=====================PENSIE_DE_ASIGURARI_SOCI = C(1)*SAL_PROGNOZASubstituted Coefficients:=====================PENSIE_DE_ASIGURARI_SOCI = 0.3856375497*SAL_PROGNOZAMatricea de corelaţie dintre variabila pensia de asigurări sociale şi salariul brutprognozat utilizat la fundamentarea bugetului asigurărilor sociale arată o legătură directăîntre cele două variabile.Corellation MatrixPENSIE_ASIG_SOCIALE SALARIU_BRUTPENSIE_ASIG_SOCIALE 1.000000 0.987842SALARIU_BRUT 0.987842 1.000000Intensitatea legăturii dintre variabile este ilustrată prin coeficienţii matriceicovarianţelor.Covariance Matrix PENSIE_ASIG_SOCIALE SALARIU_BRUTPENSIE_ASIG_SOCIALE 60131.78 158492.0SALARIU_BRUT 158492.0 428091.0Modelul de regresie a variabilei dependente pensia de asigurări sociale în funcţiede salariul brut realizat arată că la o creştere a salariului brut realizat cu o unitate monetară,pensia de asigurări sociale ar trebui să crească cu 35,842%.Din compararea modelelor de regresie rezultă că, corelaţia dintre pensia deasigurări sociale de stat şi salariul mediu brut efectiv realizat este doar în proporţie de33,88% faţă de salariul utilizat la fundamentarea bugetului asigurărilor sociale care a fostpe perioada observată 2001-2010 de 36,33%.Comparând informaţiile rezultate pe baza modelelor de regresie cu evoluţia coteimedii de asigurări sociale, care la nivelul anului 2010 a fost de 31,3% rezultă că apreciereanivelului pensiilor este supraevaluată faţă de modul de colectare a contribuţiilor.Corelaţia dintre indicii pensii medii reale – indicii salariului mediu real brutRaportul dintre pensia medie brută şi salariul mediu brut reprezintă un criteriu deactualizare a punctului de pensie şi implicit de actualizare a pensiilor.Dacă între valorile absolute ale pensiei de asigurări sociale şi salariul mediu brutexista o corelaţie directă, aşa cum a fost evidenţiată prin modelele de regresie, o altăanaliză care se face în mod frecvent este compararea indicilor pensiei medii reale cu indiciisalariului mediu real brut.Indicii pensiei medii reale s-au situat la valoarea medie de 68,69%, în timp ceindicii salariului mediu real a avut valoarea medie de 79,67%. Maximele şi minimeleacestor doi indicatori au fost favorabili indicatorului de măsurare a salariului mediu real.Coeficientul de asimetrie al seriei de date a indicilor pensiei reale de 1,218360 şicoeficientul de exces de 3,166975, sugerează o asimetrie şi un exces mai mari ai acesteiRevista Română de Statistică – Supliment Trim IV/2012 445

serii faţă de seria de date a indicilor salariului mediu real. Valorile mari ale abateriistandard sunt explicate prin includerea în seria de date a datelor empirice aferente anilor1992-1995. Rezultă că evoluţia celor două variabile nu este perfect corelată, iar una dintreexplicaţii este aceea că ajustarea pensiilor urmează, ca regulă, rata medie a inflaţiei din anulprecedent în timp ce salariile şi inflaţia au o legătură directă, iar corelaţia este sincronizatăla intervale de timp mai mici.Matricea de corelaţie dintre indicii pensiei reale şi indicii salariului real nesugerează o dependenţă directă :Corellation Matrix INDICII_PENSIEI_REALE INDICII_SAL_REALINDICII_PENSIEI_REALE 1.000000 0.889169INDICII_SAL_REAL 0.889169 1.000000Matricea de covarianţă:Covariance MatrixINDICII_PENSIEI_REALE INDICII_SAL_REALINDICII_PENSIEI_REALE 614.4966 502.4504INDICII_SAL_REAL 502.4504 519.6351Din matricea de corelaţie şi din elementele matricii de covarianţă constatăm căindicii pensiei reale s-au apreciat mai mult decât indicii salariului real, majorându-seraportul dintre pensii şi salarii ca raport al venitului înlocuit 2 .Din figura următoare se observă că începând cu anul 2009, indicii pensiei reale audepăşit indicii câştigului salariul real cu peste 20%, fapt care adânceşte dezechilibrul dinSistemul public de pensii şi majorează presiunea fiscală asupra salariaţilor.140Evolutia indicilor castigului salarial real si ai pensiei realein Romania in perioada 1990-20101401201201001008080606040401990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010INDICII CASTIGULUI SALARIAL REALINDICII PENSIEI MEDII REALEIndicii câştigului salariului real şi ai pensii medii reale2 Anghelache, C., Bugudui, E., Lilea, F.P.C- „Evaluarea legăturilor dintre indicatorii proprietățiiutilizând metoda regresiei multiple”, Scientific Research Themes/Studies Communications at theNational Seminary „Octav Onicescu”, Romanian Statistical Review Trim. 3/2012, pp. 206-212446Revista Română de Statistică – Supliment Trim IV/2012

Distribuţia veniturilor din pensii în profil teritorialAnaliza în profil teritorial al modului de distribuire a veniturilor din pensii esteimportantă pentru evaluarea surselor de subzistenţă a locuitorilor dintr-un judeţ sau regiunepe seama acestor venituri.Judeţul care concentrează cel mai mare număr de pensionari este Prahova cu opondere de 4,16% din numărul total de pensionari din sectorul de stat care adună 4,41% dinvolumul total al pensiilor.Cu ponderi de 3% -4% se situează 8 judeţe: Argeş (3,2%), Bacău (3,04%), Bihor(3,3%), Cluj (3,4%), Dolj (3,39%), Iaşi (3,07%), Suceava (3,04%), Timiş (3,09%).Judeţele Covasna (0,093%) şi Tulcea (0,091%) concentrează cel mai mic număr depensionari. Pensionarii agricultori sunt concentraţi în Dolj (6,01%), Teleorman (5,2%),Botoşani (5,05%) şi în judeţele din Moldova.1200Pensia medie pe judete in anul 2010110010009008007006005005 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45PENSIA MEDIEPensia medie în profil teritorial în anul 2010Din punct de vedere al pensiei medii realizată pe judeţe, rezultă că cele mai maripensii le au pensionarii din Sectorul 1 Bucureşti (1101 lei), Sectorul 6, Sectorul 2, Sectorul3 şi Sectorul 4 cu pensii medii peste 900 lei, urmate de Hunedoara cu 901 lei, Braşov cu895 lei, Sectorul 5 cu 815 lei, Cluj cu 799 lei, Sibiu cu 775 lei, respectiv zonele mariurbanizate şi cele care concentrează foşti salariaţi în grupe superioare de muncă. Cel maisărac judeţ este Giurgiu cu o pensie medie de 596 lei, urmat de Botoşani cu 612 lei.Inegalitatea distribuirii veniturilor din pensii- Coeficientul GiniDacă ar fi să analizăm inegalităţile dintre venituri şi pensii am constata că sunt denatură subiectivă şi sunt măsurabile cu ajutorul indicele Atkinson, dar au şi o componentăobiectivă măsurabilă prin coeficientul Gini. Pentru perioada 1990-2008, distribuţiapensiilor pe grupe valorice este ilustrată de datele din Anexa nr. 77.Pentru perioada 2009-2010, întrucât datele au alte intervale de grupare decâtseriile de date ale perioadei 1990-2008, am efectuat o analiză separată (Anexa nr. 78).La sfârşitul anului 2010, numărul pensionarilor care beneficiau de completareapensiei proprii cu subvenţia de la bugetul de stat până la nivelul pensiei sociale era de646.598 persoane, din care 427.401 persoane aveau stagii realizate numai în sectorul de statşi 219.197 persoane proveneau din rândul pensionarilor agricultori. Efortul bugetar total eraRevista Română de Statistică – Supliment Trim IV/2012 447

de 463,19 milioane lei/an pentru pensionarii de asigurări sociale de stat şi de 225,20milioane lei/an pentru pensionarii agricultori.Cei mai mulţi pensionari care aveau pensii mai mari peste această limită minimăaveau pensii cuprinse între 1001-1500 lei, 501-600 lei şi 601-700 lei în anul 2009, respectiv1001-1500 lei, 601-700 lei şi 501-600 lei în anul 2010. În anul 2010 s-a înregistrat o uşoarăcreştere a numărului de beneficiari cu pensii mai mari decât 1694 lei, ceea ce explicăadâncirea uşoară a inegalităţii veniturilor din pensii (Anexa nr. 79).Pe baza datelor statistice aferente perioadei 1990-2010 am calculat coeficientulGini în scopul de a putea aprecia nivelul inegalităţii veniturilor din pensii.Coeficientul Gini mediu este de 0,2361. Conform statisticilor descriptivemaximum a fost de 0,2510 în anul 2004 şi minimum a fost de 0,2043, nivel care a fostrealizat în anul 2007. Abaterea standard de 0,1540 poate rezulta din faptul că la categoriilede pensii mari intervalul de grupare superior nu este interval închis.Deoarece cel mai mic nivel al coeficientului Gini s-a înregistrat în anul 2007 seimpun o serie de explicaţii. În anii 2007- 2008 ultimul interval de grupare în seriile de dateeste peste 1000 lei, ori în realitate există pensii cuprinse între 8 şi 10 puncte, ceea ceînseamnă că închiderea intervalului ar trebui să se facă la nivelul cuantumurilor superioare.Repartizarea în anul 2008 a unui număr de 747.695 persoane cu pensii cuprinse înintervalul superior face ca de aici să rezulte abaterea de 0,150 şi suma erorilor.O altă explicaţie pentru valorile obţinute pentru anii 2007 şi 2008 este aceea căîncepând din iulie 2007 pensiile de asigurări sociale de stat au fost recalculate pentrupersoanele care aveau stagii de cotizare realizate înainte de anul 1963, prin utilizareasalariului mediu brut pe economie în cazul în care în evidenţa Caselor de Pensii erauînregistrate salarii minime pe economie. Această recalculare, pentru aceste categorii depensionari a condus la majorarea cuantumurilor pensiilor, de regulă ale generaţiilorpensionate anterior anului 1990. Începând cu septembrie 2007 au fost recalculate şi pensiileagricultorilor prin atribuirea unui punctaj anual de 0,57255 puncte faţă de 0,25000 punctepentru fiecare an util realizat în cadrul fostelor unităţi agricole cooperatiste, precum şipentru fiecare an de contribuţie realizat de ţăranii cu gospodărie individuală din zonelenecooperativizate, ceea ce a dus la majorarea pensiilor foarte mici.În anul 2009, coeficientul Gini a fost de 0,2351, iar în anul 2010 a înregistrat ouşoară creştere la 0,2398..26Inegalitatea venitului din pensii- Coeficientul Giniin perioada 1999-2010.250.2500.2460.2480.251.240.2440.2430.2400.237.230.235.220.226.210.209.2099 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 100.204COEFICIENTUL GINIInegalitatea venitului din pensii. Rezultatele studiului448Revista Română de Statistică – Supliment Trim IV/2012

Majorarea coeficientului Gini pentru anii 2009 şi 2010 este rezultatul a trei factoride influenţă:- majorarea punctajelor cu 25% în cazul pensionarilor care au realizatperioade de cotizare în grupa a II-a de muncă înainte de aprilie 2001,respectiv majorrea punctajelor cu 50% în cazul pensionarilor care aurealizat perioade de cotizare în grupa I de muncă sau în condiţii specialeînainte de aprilie 2001, conform eşalonărilor stabilite prin legislaţiaapărută în anul 2008- încheierea, din punct de vedere al termenului iniţial stabilit prin lege, aprocesului de recalculare a pensiilor dobândite înainte de aprilie 2001 şivalorificarea veniturilor suplimentare ale pensionarilor din perioada încare au realizat stagii de cotizare- Înlăturarea limitei superioare a bazei contribuţiei începând cu august2007, ceea ce a făcut ca noii pensionari, care aveau salarii mai mari decât5 salarii medii brute prognozate, să fructifice acest avantaj prin realizareaunui număr de puncte anuale maxim.Comparând rezultatele obţinute pentru coeficientul Gini referitor la distribuţiaveniturilor din pensii cu cel preluat din statistici, calculat pe baza distribuţiei veniturilor lanivelul economiei, constatăm un nivel mai redus al inegalităţii veniturilor din pensii faţă deinegalitatea veniturilor totale. Acest lucru poate fi explicat prin faptul că venitul din pensiiînlocuieşte venitul salarial într-un anumit raport care poate fi de maximum 100% în cazultipurilor de pensii speciale. În tot intervalul supus analizei statistice inegalitatea veniturilordin pensii a fost menţinută la nivelul 0,250, cu excepţia anului 2004 când s-a depăşitaceastă valoare. Testul Hodrick-Prescott aplicat asupra funcţiei de regresie a variabileicoeficient Gini arată că trendul este drescrescător, iar ciclicitatea care este evidenţiată înimaginea grafică din figura nr.50 sugerează faptul că în anii 2000, 2004 şi 2008 s-auînregistrat cea mai redusă inegalitate a veniturilor din pensii din România, care are cauzelegislative. Aceste măsuri legislative au vizat pensionarii mai în vârstă şi ca o coincidenţăau corespuns cu anii electorali.Deşi regulile în sistemele de pensii de tip redistributiv sunt neimplicareaGuvernului în schema de pensii şi buna administrare ca gestionar al schemei de pensii,constatăm că în mod ciclic actualizarea pensiilor s-a făcut şi în scopul stabilităţii sociale aleacestor perioade.100.00%90.00%80.00%70.00%60.00%50.00%40.00%30.00%20.00%10.00%0.00%Curba Lorentz - Venituri din pensii 20101 6 11 16 21 26 31 36 41 46 51.Curba Lorentz – inegalitatea veniturilor în anul 2010, Rezultatele studiuluiRevista Română de Statistică – Supliment Trim IV/2012 449

Având în vedere că datele statistice, conform sursei de date Wolrd Bank, arată căla nivelul întregii populaţii inegalitatea veniturilor s-a situat între 0,272 în anul 2001 şi0,321 în anul 2007, se poate observa că veniturile pensionarilor sunt mai omogene în raportde inegalitatea generală a veniturilor.Bibliografie selectivă[1]. Anghelache, C., (2008) - „Tratat de statistică teoretică şi economică”, EdituraEconomică, Bucureşti[2]. Anghelache, C., Lilea, F.P.C., (2012) - „Econometrie”, Editura Artifex, Bucureşti[3]. Lambert, P. (2000) – “Inequality aversion and the natural rate of subjective inequality”,Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier450Revista Română de Statistică – Supliment Trim IV/2012

Fundamental Principles and Conduct Rules inAuditSenior Lecturer Dan ŢOGOE PhDdan_togoe@hotmail.com“Artifex” University of BucharestAbstractThis paper presents the main principles applicable in audit activity. Those peopleinvolve in audit activities are obliged to respect these principles, therefore engagingthemselves in the achievement of ethical and legitimate objectives of the company.Key words: audit, principle, prejudice, confidential, ethicsJEL Classification: M421. Principiile fundamentalePrincipiile fundamentale care guvernează activitatea de audit intern stabilite deIIA, cărora trebuie să se supună necondiţionat cei care practică auditul intern, sunt:integritatea, obiectivitatea, confidenţialitatea şi competenţa.Integritatea, stă la baza încrederii şi credibilităţii acordate judecăţilor emise deauditori. A fi cinstit şi incoruptibil în activitatea pe care o desfăşoară, reprezintă în viziuneaIIA, o garanţie suplimentară pentru auditori în ceea ce priveşte valoarea rezultatelor.Auditorul intern, este obligat ca în baza acestui principiu, să îşi îndeplinească misiunea cuonestitate, conştiinciozitate şi responsabilitate, să respecte legea, să nu ia parte în modconştient la activităţi ilegale sau să se angajeze în acte dezonorante.Auditorul trebuie să respecte şi să contribuie la îndeplinirea obiectivelor etice şilegitime ale entităţii. în accepţiunea dată de IIA, legitim este ceea ce trebuie realizat pentrua aplica legea şi reglementările legale, iar etic este ceea ce ţine de morală şi de valorileataşate acesteia. în acest punct trebuie amintit că valorile morale reprezintă o componentăcare nu poate fi cuantificată sau abordată în mod rigid, având un caracter naţional şiimplicit elemente de diferenţiere faţă de alte valori morale acceptate într-o altă variantănaţională. De toate aceste aspecte auditorul intern trebuie să ţină cont. Conform principiuluiintegrităţii, auditorul trebuie să dea dovadă de discernământ şi să respingă cu propriajudecată şi cu instrumentele de lucru de care dispune, acele situaţii care chiar dacă nu suntexplicit tratate în norme ca nelegitime sau neetice, el apreciază că trebuie abordate ca atare.Obiectivitate Obiectivitatea, reprezintă acea atitudine intelectuală imparţială, carenecesită o independenţă de spirit şi de judecată şi care implică faptul că auditorii interni nuîşi subordonează propria judecată altor persoane. în acest sens, aprecierile lor trebuie săse bazeze pe fapte sau dovezi şi pe activităţi indiscutabile lipsite de orice prejudecată., 1Pentru acţiunile lor, întreprinse cu bună credinţă, în exerciţiul atribuţiilor şi înlimita acestora, auditorii interni nu pot fi sancţionaţi sau trecuţi în altă funcţie deconducerea entităţilor în care îşi desfăşoară activitatea.1Sursa: Normele profesionale ale auditului intern – GlosarRevista Română de Statistică – Supliment Trim IV/2012 451

Confidenţialitate Confidenţialitatea reprezintă un principiu fără de care auditulintern ar fi de neconceput. în activitatea pe care o desfăşoară, auditorul intră în contact cudocumente, date şi în formaţii al căror conţinut reprezintă secrete ale entităţii. Fiecareunitate are propriile secrete pe care le protejează faţă de concurenţă sau de terţe persoanefizice sau juridice şi a căror divulgare i-ar produce prejudicii în desfăşurarea în continuare aactivităţilor curente sau de perspectivă.Auditorii interni nu pot divulga nici un fel de date, fapte, sau situaţii pe care le-auconstatat în cursul ori în legătură cu îndeplinirea misiunilor de audit public intern. Auditoriiinterni sunt responsabili de protecţia documentelor referitoare la auditul public interndesfăşurat la o entitate publică. Acest principiu nu reprezintă doar un element consemnat lanivelul codului deontologic al auditului intern. Pentru a-i întări greutatea şi importanţa, el afost inclus şi în conţinutul legilor de organizare şi funcţionare a auditului intern.Competenţă Percepţia generală este că auditorul intern este acea persoană capabilăsă cunoască totul despre entitate, că în baza acestui atribut auditorul poate fi numit pe bunădreptate sfetnicul managerului, pe care îl consiliază şi căruia îi oferă sfaturi şi în drumărimenite să contribuie la atingerea obiectivelor pe care acesta împreună cu colectivulmanagerial sile-a propus. în mare parte, cele prezentate sunt adevărate. Se pune însăîntrebarea ce stă la baza competenţelor şi a tribuţiilor deosebite ale auditorilor interni.Singurul răspuns corect este acela al competenţei profesionale a auditorilor interni.Regulile de conduită descriu normele de comportament aşteptate de la auditoriiinterni. Aceste reguli reprezintă un sprijin pentru punerea în practică a principiilorfundamentale şi au drept scop orientarea conduitei etice a auditorilor.Între normele de conduită definite de principii şi cele definite de regulile deconduită există diferenţe. Dacă auditorii îşi limitează comportamentul la nivelul minimprevăzut, aceasta nu sugerează o conduită inadecvată sau nesatisfăcătoare. Se poatepresupune că profesia a fixat standarde suficient de înalte pentru a ne permite săconsiderăm satisfăcătoare o conduită respectând nivelul minim recomandat. Cu alte cuvinteatunci când se evaluează comportamentul unui auditor, nu poate fi vorba de stricteţe şirigiditate. Comportamentul auditorului poate fi apreciat în cadrul unor limite largi stabilitepe de o parte între principii care reprezintă limita superioară a aşteptărilor şi regulile deconduită, mai flexibile şi mai tolerante.La ce nivel se situează comportamentul unui auditor în practică? Ca şi în cazulaltor profesii, nivelul calitativ al comportamentului diferă de la un practician la altul.Majoritatea auditorilor se comportă la nivel înalt, la nivelul principiilor. Există şi cazuriizolate care nu se încadrează în normele minime definite de principii.Regulile de conduită, se aplică tuturor auditorilor interni, precum şi serviciilorprestate de aceştia. Valoarea unui audit, poate depinde în mare măsură de modul cum estepercepută de către partenerii implicaţi în auditul intern independenţa auditorului intern.În practică, independenţa înseamnă a adopta un punct de vedere nepărtinitor încursul executării misiunii de audit. Dacă auditorul intern protejează o persoană implicatăintr-un anumit grad, atunci el nu mai poate fi considerat independent. Independenţa trebuieprivită ca cea mai importantă trăsătură a auditorului intern, încrederea manifestată depersoanele care valorifică rezultatele muncii auditorului intern, se bazează pe atitudinea sanepărtinitoare. Prin urmare, nu este surprinzător faptul că independenţa este privită atât castandard cât şi ca regulă de conduită.Pe lângă faptul că este esenţial ca auditorii interni să păstreze o atitudineindependentă în cursul exercitării atribuţiilor, importantă este şi încrederea pe careutilizatorii muncii auditorilor interni trebuie să o aibă în această independenţă. Aceste douăobiective sunt denumite independenţă faptică şi în dependenţă aparentă.452Revista Română de Statistică – Supliment Trim IV/2012

Independenţa faptică rezultă din conduita auditorului care reuşeşte să păstreze oindependenţă pe toată durata desfăşurării misiunii, iar independenţa aparentă esterezultatul interpretărilor pe care persoanele implicate în desfăşurarea auditului le lanseazăreferitor la această independenţă. Dacă auditorii ar fi independenţi în fapt, dar dacă o partedin cei implicaţi în audit şi rezultatele sale ar considera că auditorul a favorizat o anumităpersoană în legătură cu un anumit aspect, atunci valoarea auditului intern ar scădeaconsiderabil. Altfel spus, auditorul intern trebuie să îşi păstreze independenţa pe toatădurata desfăşurării misiunii de audit, dar să se comporte de aşa manieră încât independenţasa să fie percepută ca atare de toţi acei care sunt implicaţi intr-o formă sau alta îndesfăşurarea misiunii de audit.Deşi independenţa este un factor critic pentru asigurarea încrederii, este importantăşi aderarea la celelalte reguli de conduită stabilite de codul deontologic.Integritatea şi obiectivitatea înseamnă imparţialitate în prestarea serviciilorspecifice funcţiei. în prestarea oricărui serviciu de specialitate, un auditor îşi va păstraobiectivitatea şi integritatea, va evita conflictele de interese, nu va prezenta cu bună ştiinţăinformaţii eronate şi nu-şi va sacrifica propriul raţionament în favoarea opiniilor altorpersoane. Pentru a ilustra sensul integrităţii şi obiectivitătii, să presupunem că în misiuneape care o desfăşoară, un auditor apreciază că s-ar putea ca o parte din creanţele având casursă clienţii, să nu fie încasate, dar acceptă opinia exprimată de contabilul şef, potrivitcăreia creanţele vor fi încasate fără probleme de la clienţi, fără a face el însuşi o evaluareindependentă a solvabilităţii debitorilor. în această situaţie, auditorul şi-a neglijat atribuţiileşi a dat dovadă de lipsă de obiectivitate.Să presupunem pe de altă parte că auditorul intern consiliază compartimentulfinanciar contabil cu privire la întocmirea declaraţiilor fiscale. Cu această ocazie elîncurajează includerea în structura declaraţiei a unor cheltuieli deductibile pe care leconsideră adecvate, deşi nu dispune de suficiente informaţii justificative în acest sens. Oasemenea atitudine nu ar reprezenta neapărat o încălcare a integrităţii şi obiectivitătiiauditorului intern. Dacă însă auditorul încurajează includerea în categoria cheltuielilordeductibile a unor cheltuieli despre care are siguranţa că nu pot dobândi acest caracter, darexistă indicii că nu vor putea fi depistate de controlul fiscal, atunci cu siguranţă limiteleintegrităţii şi obiectivitătii auditorului intern vor fi cu mult depăşite. Din păcate aceastăsituaţie este din ce în ce mai întâlnită în România, valoarea profesioniştilor fiind apreciatăde unii manageri, după abilităţile manifestate de aceştia pe linia identificării cât mai multorastfel de situaţii, care practic eludează legislaţia fiscală a ţării.Auditorii interni nu ar trebui să îşi subordoneze raţionamentele proprii opinieişefilor ierarhici. Auditorii răspund pentru propriile raţionamente exprimate prindocumentele de lucru întocmite şi nu ar trebuie să îşi modifice concluziile la cererea unorterţe persoane indiferent de poziţia ocupată de acestea pe scara ierarhică a entităţii, cuexcepţia situaţiilor în care auditorul este de acord cu concluzia superiorului său.Lipsa conflictelor de interese, echivalează cu absenţa unor relaţii care ar puteaafecta obiectivitatea sau integritatea. De exemplu ar fi inacceptabil ca un auditor care este şijurist, să reprezinte interesele entităţii în diverse litigii. Juristul apără interesele clientului pecând auditorul trebuie să rămână imparţial.În ceea ce priveşte confidenţialitatea, este esenţial ca auditorii să nu dezvăluieinformaţiile confidenţiale obţinute în cursul desfăşurării misiunilor de audit.Pe parcursul unei misiuni, auditorul obţine o cantitate considerabilă de informaţiide natură confidenţială, inclusiv salariile primite de angajaţi sau manageri, metode decalculare a preţului produselor, planurile publicitare, elemente privind calculul costurilor,Revista Română de Statistică – Supliment Trim IV/2012 453

ezultatul unor litigii ce nu poate fi făcut public, etc... Dacă auditorii ar divulga acesteinformaţii sau părţi din ele unor persoane din afara entităţii, cărora în mod firesc, li s-arefuzat accesul la aceste informaţii, atunci relaţia auditorului cu managerul ar fi gravafectată.În mod normal, documentele elaborate de auditor în cursul misiunii sau misiunilordesfăşurate, pot fi puse la dispoziţia unei terţe persoane numai cu acordul explicit almanagerului sau ordonatorului de credite care a dispus efectuarea misiunilor de audit intern.Excepţia de la această regulă o reprezintă solicitarea adresată de organele de cercetare sauinstanţele de judecată în cadrul unui proces. Dacă instanţa de judecată solicită documente,acestea vor fi puse neîntârziat la dispoziţia acesteia, după ce a fost informat despre aceastamanagerul entităţii.Bibliografie selectivă[1]. Normele profesionale ale auditului intern – Glosar454Revista Română de Statistică – Supliment Trim IV/2012

Some Aspects regarding Protocol and Ceremonial inInternational NegotiationsLecturer Dragoş Gabriel MECU PhDUniversitatea Artifex-BucureștiAbstractHigh level meetings and visits, between chiefs of states, governments or externalaffairs dignitaries assume the strict enforcement of certain ceremonial and protocol rulesmeant to emphasize courtesy and mutual respect on one hand, and the attention paid to theevent, on the other hand.Key words: diplomacy, protocol, negotiation, report, ambassadorJEL Classification: F51În contextul relaţiilor externe ale ţării noastre când participarea tot mai intensă aRomâniei la circuitul mondial al, valorilor reclamă un număr din ce în ce mai mare departicipanţi, cunoaşterea protocolului şi ceremonialului respectiv a regulilor de conduită şicurtoazie este absolut necesară.Necesitatea cunoaşterii lor este cu atât mai mare cu cât ignoranţa lor poate duce lacomplicaţii de ordin politic, cu repercusiuni mult mai mari decât stricta sferă a problemei acărei rezolvare se urmăreşte ori al sferei relaţiilor personale ale celor în cauză.În cadru vast al complexelor relaţii dintre state, cuprinzând o arie largă de activităţi,nerespectarea ansamblului normelor şi regulilor de curtoazie poate fi considerată o gravăofensă, aducând atingere însăşi fundamentului raportului pe care două state îl desfăşoarăîntre ele.Nu trebuie neglijată nici ofensa personală adusă însăşi reprezentantului străin,integrităţii sale umane fapt care poate determina din partea acestuia o atitudine negativă caurmare a jignirii care i s-a adus. Nu trebuie să se uite nici faptul de o importanţă deosebită,că relaţiile cu străinii fac parte din ansamblul general al relaţiilor dintre oameni şirespectarea persoanei reprezentantului străin este în fapt respect pe care un stat îl acordăceluilalt în relaţiile dintre ele.Deci, este lesne de imaginat cât de mare trebuie să fie atenţia faţă de aceste reguli, acăror necunoaştere poate fi considerată în ultimă instanţă o lipsă de competenţăprofesională a unei persoane chemate să aplice în viaţa politică a statului nostru pe planulrelaţiilor externe.Necesitatea şi utilitatea respectării şi păstrării în continuare a normelor de protocols-a aflat de multe ori în discuţia autorilor din domeniul teoriei şi practicii diplomatice.Literatura de specialitate cunoaşte în prezent două tendinţe de tratare a problemeinecesitaţii cunoaşterii şi respectării normelor de protocol. Pentru o analiză temeinică ainstituţiei protocolului credem că este importantă cunoaşterea deopotrivă a ambelor curente.O primă tendinţă, este cea mai larg răspândită este aceea prin care se susţinenecesitatea cunoaşterii şi aplicării normelor şi regulilor de protocol, a curtoazieidiplomatice.Revista Română de Statistică – Supliment Trim IV/2012 455

Susţinătorii acestei teze subliniază deseori legătura dintre aceste norme şiprincipiile relaţiilor internaţionale general recunoscute, în principal cu principiul egalităţiisuverane a statelor şi respectul reciproc dintre ele.Pe bună dreptate, nu se pot concepe relaţii dintre state fără contact uman necesar şiîn cadrul acestuia respectarea unor reguli de conduită, altele decât drepturile şi obligaţiilesubiecţilor concretizate în imunitate şi privilegiile pe care un stat le acordă reprezentanţiloraltui stat. Tocmai în procesul de aplicare a normelor privind aceste drepturi şi obligaţii câtşi în procesul activităţii diurne se aplică o serie de reguli de curtoazie, se acordă o anumeatenţie urmată de eticheta corespunzătoare.O a doua tendinţă care s-a manifestat în ultimii ani, dar care pare a fi din ce în cemai rar reiterată sau susţinută, este aceea care exprimă părerea că protocolul, ceremonialulşi curtoazia prin formalismul lor ar îngreuna activitatea diplomatică, că normele respectiveşi-ar pierde actualitatea în societatea modernă când ”criza de timp” obligă membriisocietăţii să excludă tot ceea ce ar putea reprezenta un balast.Consecinţa la care ajung susţinătorii acestei tendinţe este concretizată în afirmaţiacă aceste norme nu ar mai trebui să existe. Dar aceste puteri nu au o largă circulaţie, ţinândcont şi de aria vastă a relaţiilor interstatale unde dispariţia acestor norme pare deocamdatănerealizabilă.Respectarea normelor, obiceiurilor, uzanţelor protocolare dintre care unele dăinuiede sute de ani scot, în evidenţă un substrat mult mai profund şi anume faptul că acesteaspecte formale îşi au originea în respectul pe care fiecare stat trebuie să îl acorde faţă de altstat şi consideraţia de care se bucură în mod reciproc acestea. De asemenea, acelaşi substratrelevă faptul că la baza acestor norme stă în acelaşi timp şi respectul pe care trimisul unuistat îl are faţă de organele şi persoanele oficiale ale statului în care se află, precum şirespectul şi consideraţia acestora din urmă faţă de reprezentantul unui stat străin.Nu este lipsit de importanţă şi faptul că aceste norme, s-au format şi s-au dezvoltatde-a lungul istoriei ca urmare a dezvoltării societăţii, a multiplicării şi diversificăriirelaţiilor dintre statele suverane şi în strictă concordanţă cu necesităţile epocii.În prezent aceste reguli şi norme capătă o nouă rezonanţă.În condiţiile procesului de eliberare al popoarelor care au cunoscut după al doilearăzboi mondial o afirmare fără precedent dând naştere la apariţia unor mici state pe hartalumii, necesitatea acordării respectului şi curtoaziei tradiţionale capătă valenţe şi maievidente.Afirmarea noilor state în viaţa internaţională în calitatea lor de state suverane şiindependente scoate în evidenţă şi mai mult faptul că nevoia cunoaşterii şi aplicăriiregulilor de protocol şi curtoaziei se impune ca o notă de respect evidenţiind şi mai multlegătura dintre acestea şi principiile relaţiilor dintre state.Astăzi, când statele mici şi mijlocii îşi afirmă dreptul la participarea egală custatele mari şi puternice la soluţionarea problemelor ce stau în faţa omenirii, pare şi maipregnantă necesitatea menţinerii, respectării şi chiar dezvoltării corespunzător epocii în caretrăim a acestor norme. Desigur nu trebuie să credem că aceste norme nu au cunoscut o seriede schimbări de-a lungul anilor.Condiţiile noi de desfăşurare a activităţilor diplomatice a impus o anumeamplificare şi armonizare a acestor reguli pentru ca ele să-şi dovedească şi mai mult nunumai necesitatea dar şi utilitatea.Cunoaşterea şi respectarea regulilor de protocol nu exclude ideea ca statele, decomun acord, să stabilească noi elemente de curtoazie, mai apropiate de realizarea zilelornoastre.456Revista Română de Statistică – Supliment Trim IV/2012

Specialiştii din domeniul activităţii diplomatice acordă o permanentă atenţienormelor şi regulilor de curtoazie, au procedat la anumite modificări în munca lor zilnicăastfel aceste reguli se transformă într-un corolar suplu şi necesar al activităţii.Desigur că astăzi spre exemplu nu ne mai putem imagina, unele aspecte„amuzante” chiar pe care le-a consemnat istoria diplomaţiei în domeniul ordinii deprecădere. Fără a-i minimaliza importanţa astăzi, ordinea de precădere a fost şi amplificatăşi supusă unor reguli stricte, dar suple şi logice, acceptabile tuturor părţilor.Reamintindu-se de Congresul de la Karlowitz din 1699, principalii negociatori auintrat în sala de şedinţă în acelaşi moment, pe patru uşi laterale, dispuse într-o ordinesimetrică, ocupând apoi locuri în patru fotolii asemănătoare.Pentru a ajunge la locurile lor negociatorii au făcut un număr egal de paşi într-untimp cronometrat. Toate acestea numai pentru a se sublinia egalitatea lor ca reprezentanţi aiunor state suverane egale.Este de asemenea cunoscut în istoria diplomaţiei un fapt petrecut în secolul XVIcând doi ambasadori, pentru a respecta regula de precădere, au dus o adevărată luptă cares-a soldat cu mutilări corporale, dar în final a asigurat respectarea ordinii de precădere.Nu o dată în Evul Mediu s-au produs adevărate războaie de nerespectare unei regulide curtoazie fie că ea se referă la ordinea de precădere ori la un alt respect.Dar nici astăzi nu trebuie să neglijăm importanţa instituţiei protocolului căci, înzilele noastre, ele îşi găsesc noi căi de manifestare, şi nu de puţine ori problemele deprotocol fac să se realizeze măsuri politice care cel puţin în aparenţă, nu ar avea nimiccomun cu protocolul.Bibliografie selectivă[1]. Puffer, S.M. (1996) – “Management Across Cultures: Insights from Fiction andPractice”, Blackwell PublishersRevista Română de Statistică – Supliment Trim IV/2012 457

ERRATAÎN VOLUMUL“STATISTICALLY SIGNIFICANT EVOLUTION OF SERVICESDEVELOPMENT”La pagina 46, în loc de“Credibility in Regression Theory: Applications to the Inflationary TrendProfessor Gheorghe V. LEPĂDATU PhD„Dimitrie Cantemir” Christian University, BucharestFinances, Banks and Accounting Faculty,cilezbujor@yahoo.com”se va citi“Credibility in Regression Theory: Applications to the Inflationary TrendLecturer Virginia ATANASIU PhD”De asemenea, la pagina 5,în loc de„Credibility in Regression Theory: Applications to the Inflationary Trend............... 458Professor Gheorghe V. LEPĂDATU PhD”Se va citi„Credibility in Regression Theory: Applications to the Inflationary Trend............... 458Lecturer Virginia ATANASIU PhD”458Revista Română de Statistică – Supliment Trim IV/2012