Georgia Gaming Market Assessment - Pennsylvania Treasury

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The table on the following page shows gravity model revenues by market area and out-of-market revenues for Pennsylvania facilities for the baseline 2014. On a statewide basis, market growth in Pennsylvania is projected to be counteracted by new competition in Atlantic City, New York, Maryland, and Ohio. At this point, only the Ohio landbased casinos have been introduced into the model. The Ohio racinos have not yet received final approval; therefore their impact on western Pennsylvania is provided in a separate scenario. No out-of-market revenue has been projected for Valley Forge or Nemacolin since that is not material to this analysis. Participation of Valley Forge and Nemacolin in the gravity model is assumed to be muted by the de minimis purchase requirement. As the table shows, Penn National is expected to take a 13% hit from Maryland (over status quo 2014), and Presque Isle Downs is projected to take a 30% hit from the downtown landbased casino in Cleveland, Ohio. At the other Pennsylvania casinos, impacts from new competition range from 2.6% at Parx to 8.5% at the Meadows (impact of Ohio and Nemacolin). The Innovation Group Project #054-11 August 2011 Page 79
Baseline 2014 ($MMs) Eastern Alt. Sugar House PARX Chester Penn National Beth Sands The Innovation Group Project #054-11 August 2011 Page 80 Mt. Airy Pocono Western Alt. Rivers Meadows Presque Isle Nemacol- in Philadelphia 0.00 252.23 260.87 180.70 1.44 39.60 6.41 4.82 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 18.93 765.01 Atlantic City 0.00 17.73 20.21 17.85 0.18 3.99 1.36 0.13 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.13 61.58 Bethlehem 0.00 7.82 11.80 5.76 3.35 98.45 13.80 9.02 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.20 151.20 Central NJ 0.00 18.73 44.19 6.62 0.94 23.45 9.13 7.03 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.23 110.32 Newark 0.00 18.33 47.83 11.21 0.94 54.39 31.46 29.38 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.65 194.18 New York 0.00 2.05 3.56 1.92 0.69 22.60 12.54 14.53 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.32 58.21 Reading 0.00 8.15 16.34 24.22 20.42 26.98 6.58 5.37 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 21.69 129.72 Chambers.-York 0.00 1.51 1.65 4.81 23.72 2.90 2.25 2.28 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.49 39.61 DelMar 0.00 6.06 5.08 33.79 7.51 4.05 3.10 1.80 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.44 61.83 Maryland 0.00 3.04 1.69 11.41 28.97 1.60 0.87 1.21 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.16 0.37 49.33 Harrisburg 0.00 1.00 2.19 3.16 137.83 5.50 3.47 6.12 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.45 159.72 Central South 0.00 0.15 0.36 0.40 2.24 0.24 0.35 0.19 0.00 0.04 0.04 0.02 0.00 0.01 4.04 Poconos 0.00 1.15 3.83 0.98 3.67 13.57 58.02 141.86 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.07 223.15 Catskills 0.00 0.43 0.73 0.41 0.23 5.18 5.19 9.99 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 22.16 Williamsport 0.00 0.14 0.37 0.19 4.69 2.92 2.61 5.74 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 16.66 Central North 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.67 0.00 0.30 0.53 0.00 2.18 1.81 0.58 0.00 0.00 6.09 Altoona 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 4.17 0.01 0.86 1.42 0.00 6.20 6.97 0.36 1.21 0.00 21.20 Pitts. Sec East 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.72 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 31.91 32.41 2.38 6.28 0.00 73.69 Pittsburgh 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 223.95 145.95 2.89 1.58 0.00 374.37 WV Primary 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 2.39 5.65 0.09 0.08 0.00 8.21 WV Secondary 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 4.47 9.06 0.33 0.81 0.00 14.67 Erie 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 2.38 2.37 70.47 0.00 0.00 75.22 Erie Secondary 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 5.81 5.68 11.74 0.00 0.00 23.23 Ohio Tertiary 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 6.58 11.46 9.62 0.00 0.00 27.66 Cleveland 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.93 2.37 17.52 0.00 0.00 20.82 Newcastle 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 15.21 14.16 4.56 0.00 0.00 33.92 Salamanca 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.47 1.40 3.95 0.00 0.00 6.82 Subtotal Gravity 0.00 338.52 420.68 303.45 242.40 305.43 158.31 241.41 0.00 303.53 239.32 124.50 10.11 44.96 2,732.61 Total 0.00 352.98 432.47 312.53 253.74 328.88 173.82 258.06 0.00 315.41 257.14 134.53 10.11 44.96 2,874.64 Change -2.9% -2.6% -6.9% -13.0% -4.7% -4.1% -3.0% -4.8% -8.5% -30.2% Valley Forge Total -5.2%
Page 2 and 3:
Pennsylvania Statewide Gaming Marke
Page 4 and 5:
INTRODUCTION The Innovation Group w
Page 6 and 7:
ECONOMIC AND DEMOGRAPHIC ANALYSIS A
Page 8 and 9:
Pennsylvania Total Population Regio
Page 10 and 11:
$54,000 $52,000 $50,000 $48,000 $46
Page 12 and 13:
Employment Employment is a signific
Page 14 and 15:
Impact of Recession: Regional vs. N
Page 16 and 17:
are the only private companies in t
Page 18 and 19:
Pennsylvania Wilds Vineyards, the L
Page 20 and 21:
PENNSYLVANIA GAMING This section su
Page 22 and 23:
Harrah’s Chester has become the s
Page 24 and 25:
Philadelphia Market The following s
Page 26 and 27:
for 1,700 cars. The first phase ope
Page 28 and 29:
Mt. Airy Mount Airy Casino Resort i
Page 30 and 31:
Western Region The Western Region c
Page 32 and 33: The Rivers The Rivers Casino is loc
Page 34 and 35: HISTORICAL SLOTS TRENDS AND SATURAT
Page 36 and 37: Number of Machines 30,000 25,000 20
Page 38 and 39: Number of Machines 25,000 20,000 15
Page 40 and 41: Slot Revenue ($MM) $1,000 $900 $800
Page 42 and 43: Slot Revenue ($MM) $700 $600 $500 $
Page 44 and 45: Western Region Presque Isle was the
Page 46 and 47: Pittsburgh Market The Pittsburgh Ma
Page 48 and 49: Population/Slot Supply Ratios Adult
Page 50 and 51: Statewide Machine Development: 2003
Page 52 and 53: Eastern Region Performance: 2003 Re
Page 54 and 55: Poconos+BethSands: 2003 Report vs.
Page 56 and 57: With an aggressive marketing and bu
Page 58 and 59: Atlantic City currently offers appr
Page 60 and 61: number of slots from 1998 to 2008,
Page 62 and 63: to include a minimum of three games
Page 64 and 65: Yonkers Gaming Performance Year Rev
Page 66 and 67: Hollywood Casino and Ocean Downs Cu
Page 68 and 69: West Virginia Statewide Table Perfo
Page 70 and 71: Poker Revenue West Virginia Table P
Page 72 and 73: gamer visits thus generated are the
Page 74 and 75: The Innovation Group Project #054-1
Page 76 and 77: The following table shows the rates
Page 78 and 79: Baseline 2010 ($MMs) Eastern Alt. S
Page 80 and 81: 2014 Status Quo ($MMs) Eastern Alt.
Page 84 and 85: Location Alternatives As shown on t
Page 86 and 87: limited individual potential, its i
Page 88 and 89: • LARGE o $250.0 million + in gam
Page 90 and 91: These were then input into a financ
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Georgia Gaming Market Assessment - Pennsylvania Treasury

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