Technical Sessions – Monday July 11

TB-11 IFORS 2011 - Melbourne
This paper aims at investigating an optimal railway track maintenance strategy
for minimizing total cost by taking both track tamping cost and risk for derailment
accident into account. Firstly, we develop an mathematical programming
model for obtaining the optimal railway track maintenance plan. Next, we develop
a mathematical model to estimate the risk for derailment accident to be
caused by large track irregularities. Finally, by applying these models to actual
railway data, we obtain the optimal maintenance strategy including range of
surface irregularities to maintain.
� TB-11
Tuesday, 11:00-12:30
Meeting Room 112
Modeling of Military Systems
Stream: Simulation - Sponsored by I-SIM
Invited session
Chair: Raymond Hill, Operational Sciences, Air Force Institute of
Tech, 2950 Hobson Way, AFIT/ENS Bld 641 Suite 201, 45433-7765,
WPAFB, OH, United States, raymond.hill@afit.edu
1 - Filling in the Past—A Simulation Modelling Technique
to Assess the Ability of a Patrol Boat Fleet to Deliver
Presence.
Timothy Surendonk, Defence Science and Technology
Organisation, PO Box 44, 2009, Pyrmont, NSW, Australia,
Timothy.Surendonk@dsto.defence.gov.au, Peter Taylor
Patrol boat fleet effectiveness can be measured by how well it maintains a presence
in specified patrol areas, given constraints on the frequency of port visits
for supplies, maintenance and crew refreshment. This paper describes a novel
framework where simulation and optimisation are attacked at the same time.
A range of possible ’virtual boat histories’ are created and a heuristic choice is
made of a good way to get boats into the right place at the right time. The paper
shows how a combinatorial explosion can be contained and valuable insights
into patrol fleet performance can be obtained.
2 - High Level Military Decision Analysis: Problems and
approaches
Winnie Pelser, Defence Institute, Armscor, PO Box 38738,
Garsfontein-East, 0060, Pretoria, Gauteng, South Africa,
winniep@sadi.co.za
This presentation will illustrate the issues regarding Decision Making in the
Military and the added issue of High Level or Strategic Decision Analysis.
The nature of decisions needed at high levels are not necessarily appropriate
for the application of traditional "hard’ OR methods. The availability of data at
those levels is often not good. Individual or Service bias may also be an issue.
This may have a detrimental influence for very important decisions. Is there a
solution to this dilemma?
Possible methods or approaches that are effective and/or possible will be discussed.
3 - Simulation and Analysis of USAF Maintenance and
Supply Processes for the B-1 Bomber
Jo Miller, Operational Sciences Dept., Air Force Institute of
Technology, 2950 Hobson Way, 45433, WPAFB, OH, United
States, john.miller@afit.edu
We discuss recent discrete event simulations for examining the aircraft maintenance
and supply chain process for the B-1 bomber. Specific areas explored include
High Velocity Maintenance (HVM) and core AF supply chain processes
and their impacts on Total Non-Mission Capable [due to] Supply (TNMCS)
rates
4 - Building a Model for Ballistic Impact Flash Simulation
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Raymond Hill, Operational Sciences, Air Force Institute of Tech,
2950 Hobson Way, AFIT/ENS Bld 641 Suite 201, 45433-7765,
WPAFB, OH, United States, raymond.hill@afit.edu
Fires onboard aircraft are leading mechanisms for mishaps and losses during
peacetime and combat operations. Typical ignition sources causing fires onboard
aircraft include electrical sparks and hot surfaces. However, impact and
penetration of common threats encountered during combat operations, such
as armor piercing incendiary projectiles and missile fragments, generate shortlived,
but thermally-intense clouds (flashes) capable of igniting fires. Fire simulations
supporting system-level survivability analyses depend on accurate characterization
of these flash clouds. The Air Force Institute of Technology is developing
empirical models that describe time-dependent flash cloud geometries
given impact conditions. This research presents the modeling approach used to
develop the deterministic boundary model representation of impact flashes and
the overall approach coupling physics-based energy models with empiricalbased
boundary models to realize a simulation-based approach to the characterization
of ballistic impact flashes. Potential use of these combined models in
survivability simulations is discussed as well.
� TB-12
Tuesday, 11:00-12:30
Meeting Room 205
Supply Chains and Auctions
Stream: Contributed Talks
Contributed session
Chair: Xun Li, Department of Applied Mathematics, The Hong Kong
Polytechnic University, Hong Kong, China,
malixun@inet.polyu.edu.hk
1 - A Study on Joint Replenishment Problem
Jing-An Li, MADIS, Institute of Systems Science, Academy of
Mathematics and Systems Science, Chinese Academy of
Sciences, No. 55, Zhongguancun East Road, Haidian District,
100190, Beijing, China, ajli@amss.ac.cn
This paper studies the joint replenishment problem(JRP), the special case of
the one-warehouse multi-retailer problem. First, we describe the characteristics
of JRP. And based on this knowledge, we build models to analyze the joint
replenishment policy. Especially, we study the power-of-two policy. Besides,
we present an algorithm to calculate the joint replenishment policy.
2 - On Mixture of Centralized and Decentralized Supply
Chains
Takamichi Hosoda, Aoyama Business School, Tokyo, Japan,
taka.hosoda@gmail.com
A two-echelon supply chain consisting of two retailers and one manufacturer
is established to consider the following setting. A retailer and the manufacturer
form an order-smoothing scheme aiming to minimize the scheme wide predetermined
cost function. The other retailer acts selfishly, as its only concern
is minimizing its own cost. Under this context, a question put to the ordersmoothing
scheme is that how much the expected benefit is, if only one of
two retailers is cooperative. We have addressed this question via the analytical
method.
3 - Real options exchange and its impact on the supply
chain management
Gang Hao, City University of Hong Kong, Dept of Management
Sciences, Kowloon, Hong Kong, msghao@cityu.edu.hk
We propose an unprecedented study on real options exchange. Real options
exchange has been a common practice in some large scale manufacturing and
distribution systems, which, for example, accounts for about 15% sales in the
auto industry. However, many issues are unexplored. By formulating a mixed
Stackelberg and Nash-bargaining game, we examine the system of one of the
world largest auto-manufacturers. We observe that, among other interesting
findings, options exchange does not always benefit the manufacturer and the
chain, and full disclosure of inventory benefits the retailers the most.
4 - Search-based Advertising Auctions with Choice-based
Budget Constraint
Cheng Ma, Department of Applied Mathematics, The Hong
Kong Polytechnic University, Kowloon, Hong Kong,
mc_0812@163.com, Tsan-Ming Choi, Xun Li