Special Reports: (a) Cairn India: Upgrade to Buy, (b ... - Motilal Oswal

Special Reports: (a) Cairn India: Upgrade to Buy, (b) Sector Update:Landmark reforms… …Oil PSUs to benefit, (c) 4QFY13 resultspreview and (d) update on under-recovery. High supply, low demand weakens crude: Brent prices slide toUSD109/bbl (-6% MoM) in Mar-13, mainly due to highersupply from non-Opec countries and weak demand. Reuters Singapore GRM down 17% MoM to USD8.7/bbl:Restart of large refining capacity post maintenance shutdowns,increased product supply, resulting in lower cracks, particularlyfor auto fuels. Medium term outlook subdued, with annualcapacity adds of >1mmbbl/d v/s demand at ~0.8mmbbl/d. Domestic price premium expands in Petchem: Domestic pricepremium enhanced MoM due to reduction in internationalprices led by weaker Chinese demand. Stock performance: Expect ONGC and OINL to continue to rallyon the back of diesel reforms and expected natural gas pricehike. Upgrade Cairn to Buy on: a) expect reserve addition withexploration recommencement, b) currently factor long termBrent of USD75/bbl, c) ramp-up largely on track and d) withlarge cash balance, expect higher dividend/share buyback. Valuation and view:• On the back of ongoing reforms, we continue our positivestance on ONGC and OINL. BPCL is the top pick in OMCs forits E&P upside potential.• RIL's new refining/petchem projects likely to add to earningsfrom end-FY15E/FY16E, but medium term outlook on corebusiness remains weak, with RoE reaching sub-13%, Neutral.• Neutral on GAIL/GSPL due to headwinds on incremental gas.• Buy on PLNG as domestic gas scarcity augurs well.Harshad Borawake (HarshadBorawake@MotilalOswal.com ); +91 22 3982 5432Kunal Gupta (Kunal.Gupta@MotilalOswal.com ) ; +91 22 3982 54451US crude inventory highest since 1990400350300250Reuters Singapore GRM (USD/bbl)12840In mmbblMar-89 Mar-95 Mar-01 Mar-07 Mar-13Mar-10 Mar-11 Mar-12 Mar-131-M Relative Stock PerformanceCAIRNONGCOINLHPCLBPCLIOC(7)(9)MRPL(12)CPCLGAILGSPLPLNGValuation: Coverage universeReco M Cap P/E (x) P/B (x) EV/EBITDA (x)USD b FY13E FY14E FY15E FY13E FY14E FY15E FY13E FY14E FY15EIntegrated/UpstreamRIL* Neutral 46.1 10.9 10.5 9.9 1.3 1.1 1.0 8.2 8.2 7.8ONGC Buy 48.8 10.5 8.5 5.9 1.7 1.6 1.3 4.4 3.4 2.4CAIRN Buy 10.2 4.4 5.3 5.8 1.2 1.0 0.9 3.1 2.8 2.7OINL Buy 5.7 9.1 7.1 5.2 1.6 1.4 1.2 5.1 3.4 2.2OMCsIOC Buy 12.9 12.6 10.0 7.6 1.1 1.0 0.9 12.2 8.2 6.4BPCL Buy 5.0 9.6 11.5 10.1 1.5 1.4 1.3 8.1 7.2 6.4HPCL Buy 1.8 21.2 10.7 8.8 0.7 0.7 0.6 49.2 10.4 8.5Independent RefinersMRPL Neutral 1.6 NA 6.4 5.8 1.2 1.1 0.9 10.8 4.5 3.8CPCL Buy 0.3 NA 4.3 4.3 0.6 0.6 0.5 NA 4.9 4.8Gas CompaniesGAIL** Neutral 7.3 9.5 9.3 9.6 1.6 1.4 1.3 3.9 3.8 3.8GSPL Neutral 0.7 8.0 7.8 7.5 1.4 1.2 1.0 4.6 4.1 4.0PLNG Buy 1.9 8.9 10.4 9.2 2.4 2.0 1.7 6.8 6.6 5.8IGL UR 0.7 10.8 9.4 8.4 2.7 2.3 1.9 5.6 4.7 4.0*No. of shares adj. for treasury shares; **P/E adj. for investmentsIntg/UpstreamOMC'sGas/CGD RefinersRILIGL(6)(6)(3)(5)(5)(1)April 20131119

IndexSpecial ReportCompany Update: Cairn India….......................…………………………………………………………………………………………………3Sector Update on Oil PSUs………………………………………................……………………………………………………………………….44QFY13 Results Preview…..............................…………………………………………………………………………………………………..5Update on under recoveries – MTM diesel loss at INR6.5/ltr……………………………………………………………………….…6Oil market trends…………………………………………………………………………………….…………………………………………………………………7US weekly petroleum data………………………………………………………………………………….……………………….…………………………….8GRM and product spreads ……………………………………………………..………………………………………………………………………..……….9Petchem margin trend………………………………….…………..……………………………………………………………………………………………..11Refinery throughput and domestic consumption……………………………………………….…………………………………………………..14Update on under-recoveries and domestic fuel pricing…………………………………………………………………………………………..15Industry News…………………………………………………………………..……………………………………………………………………………………..17O&G stock performances during the month…………………..……………………………………………………………………………………….20Valuation comparison to Global peers…………………..………………………………………………………………………………………………..21(Please click on the link to go to the respective page)2 April 2013

SPECIAL REPORTIndia Energy: Landmark reforms … Oil PSUs to benefitUnder-recovery likely to halve in 2years: Diesel reforms (INR0.45/ltr price hike per month) to cut under-recovery by 50% to INR864bin FY15E v/s INR1.6t in FY13E. Upstream subsidy sharing in FY11 and FY12 stood at 39% and 40% and in 9MFY13 at ~36%. To beconservative, we are compelled to increase the upstream sharing in future years, but as there is no scientific method to predict futuresharing, we maintain the upstream sharing at 40% even for future years.Expect reform benefits to incentivize; Government to pursue the announced reforms: Diesel reforms will not only better oil PSUsfinancials, but benefit the government through: 1) increased revenues (taxes/dividend), 2) lower expenditure (subsidies) and 3)higher valuations for its stake in PSUs (positive for divestments – IOC’s OFS likely in FY14).Upstream companies better placed: In the first leg of reforms, we believe upstream companies, ONGC and Oil India, are best playswith likely earnings CAGR of ~35% in FY13E-15E. However, earnings benefit to OMCs will be limited only to the extent of interest costreduction as they already share nil under-recovery. Maintain Neutral on GAIL due to headwinds for incremental gas, which couldresult in network under-utilization/lower return ratios and likely profitability impact on LPG/petchem due to the expected gas pricehike. Among OMCs, BPCL is our top pick due to its E&P upside potentialLikely gas price hike, another trigger for upstream: Rangarajan Committee’s formula on domestic gas pricing implies a likely gas priceof USD8/mmbtu v/s USD4.2/mmbtu now. And a likely APM gas price increase ahead of RIL’s scheduled KG-D6 price revision in March-14 will be another trigger for ONGC and Oil India (we model USD7/mmbtu from FY15E).Refer our report datedMarch 14, 2013Expect auto fuel deregulation to improve OMCs’ marketing business profitability: In a deregulatedscenario, while OMCs will lose some market share to private retailers (RIL, Shell, Essar Oil), they arelikely to benefit more from a likely increase in retail marketing margins from the current cap ofINR1.2/litre to at least INR2/litre. In FY04 (small period of deregulation), OMCs auto fuel marketingmargin was at ~INR2.5/litre, that too when the pump prices of auto fuels were at ~INR35/litre Valuation and view: Prefer ONGC, OIL, BPCL: On the back of ongoing reforms, we continue ourpositive stance on upstream (ONGC/OIL) and OMCs. BPCL is our top pick among OMCs for its E&Pupside potential. RIL's new projects are likely to add to earnings only from FY15/FY16, and mediumterm core business outlook remains weak. Maintain Neutral on GAIL and GSPL due to headwinds forincremental gas in the medium term. However, domestic gas scarcity augurs well for Petronet LNG.4April 2013

SPECIAL REPORT4QFY13 Results PreviewGRM up 36% QoQ, Brent increases QoQ: Brent average crude price for 4QFY13 was higher QoQ at USD113/bbl (averaged~USD110/bbl for 9MFY13), mainly due to supply cuts by Opec (~1 mmbbl/d) and returning positive sentiments on the demandfront. Reuters Singapore GRM jumped 36% QoQ to an average USD8.8/bbl in 4QFY13 v/s USD6.5/bbl in 3QFY13. This was primarilydriven by higher auto fuel cracks and maintenance shutdowns in the US. Petchem spreads recover QoQ: In 4QFY13, polymer spreads over naphtha and integrated polyester spreads are up QoQ by 4-11%range. Similarly, YoY, PE spreads are up 29% and PP spreads 41%. Domestic price premium to polymer reduced during the quarterprobably due to higher imports.Diesel reforms and lower LPG losses lead to QoQ decline in under-recovery: Estimate 4QFY13E under-recovery at INR372b, down5% QoQ, primarily led by diesel reforms and lower LPG subsidies . Diesel reforms - a) market pricing for bulk consumers and b)monthly price hike of INR0.45/lt led to lower diesel under-recovery at INR186b during 4QFY13, v/s INR196b in 3QFY13. Recentcorrection in crude prices resulted in diesel under-recovery reaching INR8.2/lt (lowest in last 18 months). We model upstreamsharing at 40% and downstream sharing at nil for FY13E/FY14E/FY15E, with the balance being the government's share.5 April 2013

OIL: Brent down 6% MoM due to higher supplies Brent averaged USD109/bbl (-6%MoM) mainly due to higher supplies(all time high) from non-OPECcountries and weakening demand. Global product demand: Jan-13average at 91.9mmbbl/d was 3.6%higher than 3-yr avg of 89.4mmbbl/d OPEC spare capacity has averaged at~3.4mmbbl/d in the last 3 monthsYoY oil production and demand change (%)Oil Product Demand (mmbbl/d) YoY Change (%) - RHS948%894%840%79-4%Feb-05 Feb-07 Feb-09 Feb-11 Feb-13OPEC crude supply (mmbbl/d)Spare Capacity (RHS)OPEC SUPPLY338317295274252Feb-05 Feb-07 Feb-09 Feb-11 Feb-13Brent oil price trend (USD/bbl) Brent forward curve (USD/bbl) Brent oil price in USD/bbl and INR/bbl150Brent Spot Aug-04 Mar-06Brent (USD/bbl) Brent (INR/bbl) - RHSMar-10 Mar-11 Mar-131507,0001201601205,60090120904,20080602,8006040301,40000-30Mar-05 Mar-07 Mar-09 Mar-11 Mar-13Dec-01 Apr-05 Aug-08 Jan-12 May-15 Sep-18Mar-05 Mar-07 Mar-09 Mar-11 Mar-13Crude price differentials (USD/bbl) Brent-WTI spread (USD/bbl) Indian basket price trend (USD/bbl)12Arab L-H WTI - Maya (RHS)24912603-120-24Mar-05 Mar-07 Mar-09 Mar-11 Mar-13Brent less WTI (USD/bbl) Oil to gas ratio (x) - RHS3070204510200-5-10-30Mar-05 Mar-07 Mar-09 Mar-11 Mar-137 April 2013

US Weekly Petroleum Data: Oil inventory highest since 1990 US crude inventory increased to 388.6mmbbl in the last week of Mar-13,highest since 1990, on back of weakdemand and resumption of refineriespost maintenance shutdowns. US refinery utilization averaged ~86%in the last week of March-13. Distillate inventories are ~21% belowthe last 5-year averageWeek ended Weekly variation Yearly variationVariation (%) from22-Mar-13 29-Mar-13 WoW WoW (%) 30-Mar-12 YoY (%) 1-Yr Avg 3-Yr Avg 5-Yr AvgInventory DataCrude Oil 385.9 388.6 2.7 0.7 362.4 7.2 4.1 8.3 11.8Gasoline 221.2 220.7 -0.6 -0.3 221.9 -0.6 4.3 2.0 3.1Distillates 115.3 113.0 -2.3 -2.0 135.9 -16.9 -7.8 -21.1 -20.9Products SuppliedTotal Products 18.9 19.0 0.1 0.5 18.2 4.3 1.1 0.1 -0.6Gasoline 8.4 8.5 0.1 1.5 8.8 -3.0 -1.7 -3.8 -4.7Distillates 4.2 3.9 -0.3 -8.1 3.6 7.9 5.7 3.6 2.8RefineryUtilization (%) 85.7 86.3 0.6 0.7 85.7 0.7 -1.8 -0.2 1.1ImportsCrude Imports 8.2 7.9 -0.2 -2.8 9.8 -18.9 -5.5 -9.9 -11.9Gasoline 0.5 0.6 0.1 17.8 0.9 -32.8 -5.3 -21.7 -29.8US crude oil inventory (mmbbl)US distillate inventory (mmbbl)US gasoline inventory (mmbbl)425390355320285250Range (2008-12) Range (2008-12) Average (2008-12)1 18 35 52Week18616213811490Range (2008-12) Range (2008-12) Average (2008-12)1 18 35 52WeekUS total product supplied (mmbbl/d) US refinery utilization (%) US crude imports (mmbbl)250230210190170Range (2008-12) Range (2008-12) Average (2008-12)1 18 35 52Week23Range (2008-12) Range (2008-12) Average (2008-12)94Range (2008-12) Range (2008-12) Average (2008-12)2220841974171 18 35 52Week641 18 35 52Week8April 2013

GRM: Down 17% MoM led by lower auto fuel cracks Reuters Singapore GRM was down17% MoM to USD8.7/bbl: This isprimarily driven by lower auto fuelcracks due to resumption of facilitiespost maintenance shutdowns in US. While, the medium term GRM outlookcontinues to remain subdued, weexpect GRM to be volatile (occasionalspurts) due to occasional bunching upof shutdownsReuters Singapore GRM (USD/bbl)129630Mar-05 Mar-06 Mar-07 Mar-08 Mar-09 Mar-10 Mar-11 Mar-12 Mar-13Gasoline spreads (USD/bbl) Diesel spreads (USD/bbl) LPG spreads (USD/bbl)271890-9Mar-05 Mar-07 Mar-09 Mar-11 Mar-13403020100Mar-05 Mar-07 Mar-09 Mar-11 Mar-13200-20-40-60Mar-05 Mar-07 Mar-09 Mar-11 Mar-13Naphtha spreads (USD/bbl) Jet/Kero spreads (USD/bbl) Fuel oil spreads (USD/bbl)20401010300020-10-10-20Mar-05 Mar-07 Mar-09 Mar-11 Mar-13100Mar-05 Mar-07 Mar-09 Mar-11 Mar-13-20-30Mar-05 Mar-07 Mar-09 Mar-11 Mar-139 April 2013

GRM: Over capacity + sluggish demand = range bound marginsSingapore GRM down MoM (USD/bbl)(USD/bbl) Mar-12 Feb-13 Mar-13 MoM (%) YoY (%) 4QFY12 3QFY13 4QFY13 QoQ (%) YoY (%) FY12 FY13 YoY (%) 1 Yr Avg 3 Yr Avg 5 Yr AvgSingapore GRM 5.7 10.5 8.7 -17.1 52.4 7.5 6.5 8.8 35.4 17.4 8.3 7.7 -7.3 7.8 7.1 6.1Oil, Product Prices and Cracks (USD/bbl)(USD/bbl) Mar-12 Feb-13 Mar-13 M-o-M (%) Y-o-Y (%) 4QFY12 3QFY13 4QFY13 Q-o-Q (%) Y-o-Y (%) FY12 FY13 Y-o-Y (%)Oil PricesWTI 106.2 95.3 92.9 -2.5 -12.5 102.9 88.1 94.3 7.0 -8.3 97.3 92.0 -5.4Brent 124.9 116.5 109.2 -6.2 -12.6 118.6 110.4 112.9 2.2 -4.8 114.5 110.5 -3.5Dubai 122.3 111.1 105.4 -5.1 -13.8 116.1 107.2 108.0 0.8 -6.9 110.0 106.9 -2.8Indian Basket 123.4 113.1 106.8 -5.5 -13.4 117.2 108.3 109.8 1.3 -6.3 111.8 108.3 -3.1Product PricesLPG 90.2 78.2 69.4 -11.3 -23.1 87.3 83.2 75.2 -9.6 -13.9 75.3 74.3 -1.2Gasoline 134.4 129.9 120.8 -7.0 -10.1 127.9 117.7 123.6 5.0 -3.4 121.7 119.3 -2.0Diesel 136.1 132.9 123.7 -6.9 -9.1 132.6 125.1 127.8 2.1 -3.6 128.0 125.1 -2.2Jet/Kero 136.2 133.9 123.6 -7.7 -9.3 131.9 126.8 128.6 1.4 -2.5 128.4 126.1 -1.8Naphtha 117.6 109.2 100.4 -8.0 -14.7 111.7 102.7 104.7 1.9 -6.3 105.3 101.1 -3.9Fuel Oil 121.3 104.8 102.4 -2.3 -15.6 119.4 101.6 103.2 1.6 -13.6 111.2 104.4 -6.2Product Cracks (v/s Dubai)LPG -32.1 -32.9 -36.0 -9.5 -12.2 -28.8 -24.0 -32.9 -36.8 -14.1 -34.7 -32.6 6.1Gasoline 12.2 18.8 15.4 -17.9 26.9 11.8 10.5 15.5 48.3 31.8 11.7 12.4 5.6Diesel 13.9 21.8 18.3 -16.0 32.0 16.5 18.0 19.8 10.1 19.6 18.0 18.2 1.1Jet/Kero 13.9 22.8 18.2 -20.4 30.5 15.9 19.6 20.6 4.7 29.5 18.4 19.2 4.2Naphtha -4.6 -1.9 -5.0 -161.9 -8.3 -4.3 -4.5 -3.4 25.5 22.5 -4.7 -5.8 -23.6Fuel Oil -1.0 -6.3 -3.0 52.5 -213.2 3.4 -5.5 -4.8 13.5 nm 1.3 -2.5 nm10April 2013

Polymer Margins: International prices down on weak demand Domestic price premium MoM led byfall in international polymer/Naphthaprices. Fall in prices is probably due toweaker than expected Chinesedemand. Domestic polymer prices aremarginally (1-2%) up MoM Petchem margins seem to be inrecovery mode (PE/PP margins are up~12%MoM, PVC up 55% MoM).Key polymer price trends (INR/kg)10080PE PP PVC604020Mar-05 Mar-07 Mar-09 Mar-11 Mar-13Premium/discount to international prices (INR/kg)6040PE PP PVC200-20Mar-05 Mar-07 Mar-09 Mar-11 Mar-13PE spread over naphtha (INR/kg) PP spread over naphtha (INR/kg) PVC spread over naphtha (INR/kg)5244362820AprMin 2008-12 5 yr range FY13MayJunJulyAugSeptOctNovDecJanFebMar5244362820AprMin 2008-12 5 yr range FY13MayJunJulyAugSeptOctNovDecJanFebMar3020100-10AprMin 2008-12 5 yr range FY13MayJunJulyAugSeptOctNovDecJanFebMarPE spread overn naphtha (USD/mt) PP spread over naphtha (USD/mt) PVC spread over naphtha (USD/mt)Naphtha Ethylene Polyethylene2,0001,5001,0005000Mar-05 Mar-07 Mar-09 Mar-11 Mar-13Naphtha Propylene Polypropylene2,4001,8001,2006000Mar-05 Mar-07 Mar-09 Mar-11 Mar-13Naphtha Price Ethylene PVC1,8001,3509004500Mar-05 Mar-07 Mar-09 Mar-11 Mar-1311 April 2013

Polymer Margins: Domestic price premium improved MoMMar-12 Feb-13 Mar-13 MoM (%) YoY (%) 4QFY12 3QFY13 4QFY13 QoQ (%) YoY (%) FY12 FY13 YoY (%)Exch. Rate (INR/USD) 50.4 53.8 54.4 1.1 8.1 50.3 54.2 54.2 0.0 7.8 47.9 54.4 13.5Naphtha (USD/MT) 1,035 961 883 (8.0) (14.7) 983 903 921 1.9 (6.3) 927 890 (3.9)Naphtha (INR/kg) 55 54 51 (7.0) (7.8) 52 51 52 1.9 1.0 47 51 9.1International Prices (US$/MT)PE 1,421 1,497 1,473 (1.6) 3.6 1,351 1,357 1,472 8.5 8.9 1,382 1,371 (0.8)PP 1,452 1,533 1,491 (2.7) 2.7 1,382 1,413 1,502 6.3 8.6 1,481 1,429 (3.5)PVC 1,042 1,064 1,057 (0.6) 1.4 1,003 969 1,049 8.3 4.6 1,050 998 (5.0)Simple Spreads over Naphtha (USD/mt)PE 386 536 589 10.0 52.6 368 454 551 21.5 49.7 456 481 5.6PP 417 572 608 6.3 45.8 399 509 581 14.0 45.4 555 539 (2.8)PVC 7 103 174 68.5 2439.7 20 66 128 95.3 554.6 124 108 (13.0)Domestic Prices (INR/kg)PE 85.4 93.4 94.4 1.1 10.5 83.4 89.4 93.0 4.1 11.6 79.1 91.1 15.1PP 87.4 98.7 99.7 1.0 14.1 84.1 92.2 97.9 6.2 16.4 84.5 92.9 10.0PVC 56.5 64.0 65.5 2.3 15.9 56.2 62.0 63.5 2.4 13.1 56.9 62.5 9.7Simple Spreads over Naphtha (INR/kg)PE 30.6 39.0 43.8 12.3 43.4 31.4 37.9 40.6 7.0 29.1 32.5 40.2 23.7PP 32.6 44.4 49.2 10.8 50.8 32.1 40.7 45.4 11.5 41.3 37.9 42.1 11.2PVC 1.7 9.7 15.0 54.9 771.1 4.2 10.6 11.1 4.7 160.7 10.3 11.6 12.7Prem/(Disc) to International Prices (%)PE 13.5 10.3 12.0 16.7 (10.8) 16.9 15.7 11.0 (30.0) (34.8) 14.0 17.2 23.5PP 13.7 13.9 16.9 21.8 23.1 15.2 14.6 14.5 (0.8) (4.8) 13.8 14.3 3.9PVC 2.5 6.4 8.3 30.6 239.1 6.1 12.4 6.3 (49.1) 3.1 8.3 10.3 24.712April 2013

Polyester Margins: Improve on MoM basis(INR/kg) Mar-12 Feb-13 Mar-13 MoM (%) YoY (%) 4QFY12 3QFY13 4QFY13 QoQ (%) YoY (%) FY12 FY13 YoY (%)Polyester Intermediates PricesPTA 63.3 69.7 69.5 (0.3) 9.8 63.3 64.6 69.5 7.6 9.8 63.1 64.4 2.0MEG 57.5 68.9 67.6 (1.9) 17.6 60.3 64.3 68.3 6.1 13.3 60.2 61.4 2.0Polyester PricesPOY 92.4 97.5 97.5 0.0 5.5 91.7 94.0 97.3 3.6 6.1 91.8 94.1 2.4PSF 96.8 102.3 100.3 (2.0) 3.6 96.4 98.3 101.4 3.2 5.2 97.8 97.7 (0.2)Integrated Polyester SpreadsPOY 48.9 54.4 57.6 5.8 17.8 50.5 53.2 55.8 5.0 10.5 55.0 53.8 (2.2)PSF 53.2 59.2 60.4 1.9 13.5 55.2 57.5 59.9 4.3 8.6 61.0 57.4 (5.9)POY and PSF price trend (INR/kg)PTA and MEG price trend (INR/kg)PTA spread over naphtha (INR/kg)130POY PSF Cotlook A (cents/lbs) - RHS250110200901501007050500Mar-05 Mar-07 Mar-09 Mar-11 Mar-138065PTA MEG503520Mar-05 Mar-07 Mar-09 Mar-11 Mar-13463626166AprMin 2008-12 5 yr range FY13MayJunJulyAugSeptOctNovDecJanFebMarPOY spread over naphtha (INR/kg) PSF spread over naphtha (INR/kg) MEG spread over naphtha (INR/kg)68Min 2008-12 5 yr range FY1386Min 2008-12 5 yr range FY1360Min 2008-12 5 yr range FY1358704548543038381528220AprMayJunJulyAugSeptOctNovDecJanFebMarAprMayJunJulyAugSeptOctNovDecJanFebMarAprMayJunJulyAugSeptOctNovDecJanFebMar13April 2013

India Refinery throughput and domestic fuel consumptionRefinery throughput trendMonthly ComparisonQuarterly ComparisonAnnual ComparisonKBPD Feb-12 Jan-13 Feb-13 MoM (%) YoY (%) 4QFY12 3QFY13 4QFY13 QoQ (%) YoY (%) FY12 FY13 YoY (%)Total 3,525 3,631 3,699 1.9 4.9 3,477 3,548 3,665 3.3 5.4 3,354 3,437 2.5PSUsHPCL 322 343 354 3.2 9.9 321 337 349 3.3 8.6 326 307 (6.1)BPCL 496 471 477 1.4 (3.7) 476 444 474 6.9 (0.4) 452 462 2.1IOC 1,143 1,139 1,174 3.1 2.7 1,142 1,138 1,156 1.6 1.2 1,120 1,096 (2.1)MRPL 282 308 331 7.3 17.2 271 306 320 4.4 17.8 258 277 7.3CPCL 224 226 229 1.6 2.4 222 203 227 12.3 2.6 213 186 (12.5)PrivateRIL 674 673 667 (0.9) (1.0) 663 649 670 3.2 1.0 654 656 0.2ESSAR 328 417 414 (0.6) 26.4 327 411 416 1.0 27.2 272 393 44.7Total consumption (kbpd) Petrol consumption (kbpd) Diesel consumption (kbpd)3,2503,0002,7502,5002,250Total YoY (%)Feb-09 Feb-10 Feb-11 Feb-12 Feb-13Domestic fuel consumption statistics30%20%10%0%-10%400350300250200Petrol YoY (%)Feb-09 Feb-10 Feb-11 Feb-12 Feb-1330%20%10%0%-10%1,7001,5001,3001,100900700Diesel YoY (%)Feb-09 Feb-10 Feb-11 Feb-12 Feb-13Monthly ComparisonQuarterly ComparisonAnnual Comparisonkbpd Feb-12 Jan-13 Feb-13 MoM (%) YoY (%) 4QFY12 3QFY13 4QFY13 QoQ (%) YoY (%) FY12 FY13 YoY (%)Total 3,142 3,075 3,207 4.3 2.0 3,075 3,135 6,282 100.4 104.3 2,965 3,089 4.2Key ProductsPetrol 359 356 388 8.9 7.9 356 369 744 101.5 109.3 348 363 4.1Naphtha 258 305 276 (9.7) 6.9 256 296 581 96.1 127.5 267 296 10.9LPG 534 489 528 7.8 (1.2) 513 490 1,017 107.7 98.1 487 492 0.9Diesel 1,422 1,403 1,443 2.9 1.5 1,395 1,436 2,846 98.2 104.0 1,327 1,412 6.4Kerosene 182 157 174 11.2 (4.2) 174 159 331 108.7 90.7 175 160 (9.0)ATF 123 115 119 3.2 (3.4) 121 114 235 106.1 93.4 118 111 (6.2)Fuel Oil 162 126 124 (1.7) (23.2) 155 133 251 88.3 61.6 169 145 (14.0)30%20%10%0%-10%14April 2013

Under recoveries trend and domestic fuel pricing Latest fortnight daily under recoveryrun-rate at INR3.5b, implying annualunder recovery at INR1.2t. Impact of INR1/ltr price hike onunder recoveries• Diesel : ~INR80b• Kerosene: ~INR10b• LPG hike of INR25/cyl: ~INR26bPetrol and diesel price difference (INR/lt)Domestic retail petrol price trend (INR/lt)Petrol (INR/ltr)Chg (%) - RHS80604020-Dec-04Dec-05Nov-06Oct-07Sep-08Aug-09Jul-10Jun-11May-12Apr-1320%10%0%-10%-20%Fortnightly diesel under recoveries (INR/lt) Fortnightly kerosene under recoveries (INR/lt) Fortnightly LPG under recoveries (INR/cyl)Domestic retail diesel price trend (INR/lt) Domestic retail Kerosene price trend (INR/cyl) Domestic retail LPG price trend (INR/cyl)6048362412-Diesel (INR/ltr)Chg (%) - RHS20%10%0%-10%-20%2015105-Kerosene (INR/ltr)Chg (%) - RHS30%20%10%0%-10%400300200100-20%10%0%-10%-20%Dec-04Dec-05Nov-06Oct-07Sep-08Aug-09Jul-10Jun-11May-12Apr-13Dec-04Dec-05Nov-06Oct-07Sep-08Aug-09Jul-10Jun-11May-12Apr-13Dec-04Dec-05Nov-06Oct-07Sep-08Aug-09Jul-10Jun-11May-12Apr-13Mar-12Apr-12May-12Jun-12Jul-12Aug-12Sep-12Oct-12Nov-12Dec-12Jan-13Feb-13Mar-13Mar-12Apr-12May-12Jun-12Jul-12Aug-12Sep-12Oct-12Nov-12Dec-12Jan-13Feb-13Mar-13Mar-12Apr-12May-12Jun-12Jul-12Aug-12Sep-12Oct-12Nov-12Dec-12Jan-13Feb-13Mar-1314.413.912.59.212.117.111.79.810.09.09.211.38.66.531.031.530.527.228.532.733.931.330.930.631.633.430.5571481396319231347469479521461481439435LPG (INR/Cyl)Chg (%) - RHS15April 2013

Under recoveries: Model upstream sharing at 40%We model upstream sharing at 40% in FY13/FY14/FY15(INR b) FY05 FY06 FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13E FY14E FY15EFx Rate (INR/USD) 44.9 44.3 45.2 40.3 46.0 47.5 45.6 47.9 54.5 54.0 53.0Brent (USD/bbl) 42 58 64 82 85 70 86 114 111 110 110Gross Under recoveries (INR b)Petrol 2 27 20 73 52 52 27 0 0 0 0Diesel 22 126 188 353 523 93 348 819 909 516 153Kerosene 95 144 179 191 282 174 200 278 305 296 277LPG 84 102 107 156 176 143 205 284 407 406 441Total 201 400 494 773 1,033 461 780 1,385 1,620 1,218 870Gross Under recoveries Sharing (INR b)Government 0 115 241 353 713 260 410 829 972 731 522Ups tream 59 140 205 257 329 145 303 552 648 487 348OMC's 142 138 48 163 (9) 56 67 0 0 0 0Total 201 400 494 773 1,033 461 780 1,385 1,620 1,218 870Gross Under recoveries Sharing (%)Government 0 29 49 46 69 56 53 60 60 60 60Ups tream 30 35 42 33 32 31 39 40 40 40 40OMC's 70 35 10 21 (1) 12 9 0 0 0 0Total 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100Upstream Sharing (INR b)ONGC 41 120 170 220 281 116 249 445 527 400 285OIL 7 10 20 23 30 15 33 74 86 65 47GAIL 11 11 15 14 18 13 21 32 34 22 16Total 59 140 205 257 329 144 303 550 648 487 348Upstream Sharing (%)ONGC 69 85 83 86 86 80 82 81 81 82 82OIL 12 7 10 9 9 11 11 13 13 13 13GAIL 19 8 7 5 5 9 7 6 5 5 5Total 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100Note: We have assumed a diesel price hike of INR0.45/lt every month in our estimates16April 2013

Industry News - InternationalOil Demand growth estimates from IEA, OPEC, EIAOil demand growth (mmbbl/d) 2012 2013 RemarksIEA (Oil Market Report) 0.9 0.8 Believes US sequester, worsening Chinese business sentiment and continueddeterioration in European employment lend will keep oil demand growth lowOPEC (Monthly Oil Market Report) 0.8 0.8 Maintained 2013 oil demand, expects major growth from ChinaEIA (Short-Term Energy Outlook) 0.8 1.0 Expects non-OECD countries to drive growth momentum in 2013Burnable ice’ discovery gives Japan hopeof 100-year gas supplyJapan has extracted natural “ice gas” frommethane hydrates beneath the sea off itscoasts in a technological coup, opening upa super-resource that could meet thecountry’s gas needs for the next centuryand change the world’s energy outlook.JOGMEC said an exploration ship hadsuccessfully drilled 1,000ft below theseabed into deposits of methane hydrate,an ice-like solid that stores gas moleculesbut requires great skill to extract safely.“Methane hydrates available withinJapan’s territorial waters may well be ableto supply the nation’s natural gas needsfor a century,” said company, adding thatthe waters under exploration also containlarge reserves of rare earth metals.Saudi Arabia to Drill for Shale Gas ThisYearSaudi Arabia, the world's largest exporterof crude oil, will push ahead this year withexploratory drilling of shale and otherunconventional gas reserves which couldbe twice the size of its conventional gasreserves, which total 286 trillion cubicfeet, Minister of Oil Ali al-Naimi said. "Thisyear alone we are going to test sevenwells for shale. We have rough estimatesof 600 trillion cubic feet of unconventionalshale gas. The potential is very huge andwe plan to exploit it," he said during aCredit Suisse conference. Saudi outputeased to 9.2 million barrels a day inDecember, from 9.6 million the previousmonth.Shell to offload Australia’s GeelongrefineryShell is planning to sell its 120,000 b/dGeelong refinery in Australia's Victoriastate, but will turn it into an oil productimport terminal if it fails to find a buyer.Its 79,000 b/d Clyde refinery in Sydneywas converted to a similar facility lastyear. Conversion of Geelong into animport terminal will leave Australia withfour refineries with a combined capacityof about 427,000 b/d against productdemand of around 1mn b/d. Australia isbecoming increasingly dependent onimported crude and products as domesticproduction declines and its downstreamindustry faces increased competition fromlarger, more efficient Asia-Pacificrefineries17 April 2013

Industry News - DomesticGail India books LNG output facility in USfor 20 yearsGail India has booked 2.3 million tonnes ofLNG production capacity in the US. It hassigned a deal with US energy firmDominion for using capacity at its CovePoint terminal at Lusby in Maryland."Dominion is marketing 4.6 mtpa and Gailhas booked 50% of such capacity for 20years," the company said in a statement. Amajor Japanese buyer holds the balancecapacity in the terminal. Construction ofthe terminal is expected to start in 2014and the liquefaction facilities will becommissioned by 2017, it said."Gail has a positive outlook on Henry HubindexedLNG exports from the US and thathas prompted us to sign this terminalservice agreement, which follows our dealwith Cheniere signed in 2011. Thecontracts signed with Cheniere andDominion make Gail one of the largestHenry Hub LNG portfolio holders andprovide us an opportunity to marketabout 6 mmtpa of LNG from the US," Gailchairman & managing director BC Tripathisaid.OVL completes Azerbaijan acquisitionUS energy firm Hess Corporation hascompleted the USD1b sale of its stakes inoil-rich Chirag and Guneshli fields and anassociated pipeline in Azerbaijan to ONGCVidesh (OVL). "The acquisition would bring9% additional proved reserves to OVLportfolio and daily oil production of about19,000 barrels," an ONGC official said. Thecompany had signed a deal with HessCorp in September last year. The dealincludes acquisition of Hess Corp's 2.72%stake in Chirag and the deepwater portionof Guneshli fields in the prolific CaspianSea region and a 2.36% stake in the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline.BP-operated oil and gas fields are locatedin the south Caspian Sea, about 95 km offthe coast of Azerbaijan. OVL's otherpartners in the fields are State OilCompany of Azerbaijan Republic, Chevron,Statoil, ExxonMobil, Inpex, Turkish NOC-TPAO and Itochu.Cairn India starts oil output fromAishwariya field in Rajasthan BlockCairn India Ltd has commenced oilproduction from the Aishwariya field inthe Rajasthan Block bordering Pakistanand also begun commercial sale of gasfrom there. Cairn India plans to raise oiloutput from the new field to 10,000barrels per day and to invest more thanINR60b (USD1.1 billion) in exploration anddevelopment in the fiscal year beginningApril, P. Elango, a member of the boardsaid. The fields in the Rajasthan Blockproduce about 175,000 bpd andcontribute more than 23 percent of India'sdomestic production, the company said.Besides Cairn India began natural gassales from its prolific Rajasthan block onborders with Pakistan. It will initiallyproduce about 5 million standard cubicfeet per day (0.15 million standard cubicmeters per day) of gas, which will go up toa maximum of 1 mmscmd by next year.Cairn India CEO P Elango said thecompany can produce more "provided weget timely regulatory approvals". "We canmake (this block) the largest producingfield in the country," he said18 April 2013

Industry News - DomesticRIL spuds first exploration well in fiveyearsRIL has spud its first exploration well inmore than five years on the flaggingnatural gas fields in KG-D6 block as it looksfor new reserves to supplement fallingoutput. The MJ-1 exploration well on theDhirubhai-1 and 3 gas fields in the KG-DWN-98/3 or KG-D6 block "was spud inearly March and is drilling ahead," saidNiko Resources, the firm's minoritypartner in the Krishna Godavari basinblock.The well is targeting a Mesozoic synriftclastic reservoir, similar to the producingMA oil and gas field in the same block.The well be drilled over two kilometresdeeper than and directly beneath theproducing D1&D3 fields in the block.Results of the well are expected in April orMay, Niko said. RIL has given the well apre-drill best case gross prospectiveresource of 819 billion cubic feet of gasand 56 million barrels of liquids. MJ-1 wellwill probe the Mesozoic synrift clasticreservoir lying below the D1-D3 (Pliocene)Mining Lease area.Iran slips to 7th slot among crude oilsuppliers to IndiaWith India cutting import of oil from Iran,the Persian Gulf nation has slipped fourplaces to become India's seventh-largestcrude oil supplier in current fiscal. Iran,which was India's second biggest supplierof crude oil after Saudi Arabia in 2010-11,supplied 9.7 million tons during April-December period of current year, the LokSabha was informed. The supplies fromIran were behind Saudi Arabia's 24.8 mmt,Iraq's 17.2 mmt, Venezuela's 15.1 mmt,Kuwait's 13.2 mmt and UAE's 11.4 mmt.India had last fiscal (2011-12) relegatedIran to third spot with 18.1 mmt ofimports. In a written reply to a question,Minister of State for Petroleum & NaturalGas Panabaaka Lakshmi said Iran had in2009-10 supplied 21.2 mmt which camedown to 18.5 mmt in 2010-11 and to 18.1mmt in the year after. It may end the fiscalwith import of about 13 million tons incurrent fiscal. During current fiscal, Iraniansupplies made up for 7.2 per cent of theIndia's oil imports, down from 10.5 percent in the previous fiscal (2011-12).ONGC, Oil India make joint bid forMozambique gas stakeONGC and Oil India have made a joint bidto acquire up to 20% stake in a gaintMozambique gas field. GAIL India shunnedthe offer as it felt the asking price ofaround USD4 billion was too high. Sourcesprivy to the development said OVL-OILhave made a non-bidding offer at theclose of deadline. Videocon and Anadarkoare running almost common auctionprocess but will do separate saletransaction for selling stake in theMozambique's offshore Area 1, which mayhold as much as 70 Trillion cubic feet ofgas resources.Sources said while Videocon has put onoffer all of its stake to cut its debt,Anadarko is wanting to reduce its holdingto 26.5 per cent. It wasn't howeverimmediately clear if OVL-OIL combinehave made a single offer or have madeseparate offers to Anadarko andVideocon. Anadarko is the operator of theblock with 36.5 per cent stake whileVideocon and a unit of BPCL hold 10 percent stake each.19 April 2013

O&G stock performanceAbsolute stock performance (%)1 MONTH ABSOLUTEGSPL (1)PLNGIGLCairnIOCBPCLHPCLGAILOILONGCRIL(12)(8)(8)(9)(10)(7)(4)(1)(2)73 MONTH ABSOLUTEGSPL (11)PLNG(15)IGLCairn (15)IOCBPCLHPCL2GAIL (10)OILONGCRIL (7)99813216 MONTH ABSOLUTEGSPL(16)PLNG(16)IGLCairn (18)IOCBPCLHPCL (8)GAIL (18)OILONGCRIL (9)71177111 YEAR ABSOLUTEGSPL (11)PLNG (16)IGL (26)Cairn (23)IOCBPCLHPCLGAIL (12)OILONGCRIL81301176(20) 0 20(20) 0 20 40(20) 0 20(50) 0 50Relative stock performance (%)1 MONTH RELATIVEGSPLPLNGIGLCairn(9)IOCBPCLHPCLGAILOILONGC(5)(6)(6)RIL (7)(5)(1)11193 MONTH RELATIVEGSPL (8)PLNG (12)IGLCairnIOCBPCLHPCLGAILOILONGCRIL(12)(7)(4)512121116246 MONTH RELATIVEGSPL (17)PLNGIGLCairnIOCBPCLHPCLGAILOILONGCRIL(17)(19)(19)(10)(10)6106691 YEAR RELATIVEGSPL (20)PLNGIGLCairn(32)IOCBPCLHPCLGAILOILONGCRIL(25)(35)(22)(1)(9)(8)(3)48(10) (5) 0 5 10 15(30) (10) 10 30(30) (20) (10) 0 10 20(40) (20) 0 2020 April 2013

Valuation comparison to Global peersM. Cap PE (x) P/BV (x) EV/EBIDTA (x)(USDb) CY12/FY13 CY13/FY14 CY14/FY15 CY12/FY13 CY13/FY14 CY14/FY15 CY12/FY13 CY13/FY14 CY14/FY15Integrated Oil CompaniesReliance Industries 47.2 11.1 10.7 10.1 1.3 1.2 1.1 8.4 8.4 8.0Big 5 average 9.4 9.4 9.0 1.7 1.6 1.5 4.2 4.3 4.2North America average 11.3 11.2 10.4 1.4 1.3 1.2 4.5 4.3 4.0Europe average 14.9 9.9 8.9 1.0 0.9 0.9 3.8 3.7 3.5Asia & Others average 11.1 9.4 8.7 1.3 1.2 1.1 5.8 5.2 4.8Global Average 11.7 9.9 9.2 1.3 1.2 1.1 5.2 4.8 4.4Upstream CompaniesONGC 49.9 10.7 8.6 6.0 1.8 1.6 1.4 4.6 3.5 2.5Oil India 5.6 9.0 7.0 5.1 1.6 1.4 1.2 5.0 3.3 2.2Cairn India 10.3 4.5 5.3 5.9 1.2 1.0 0.9 3.1 2.9 2.7North America average 18.3 16.1 12.8 1.8 1.6 1.4 6.1 5.1 4.4Europe average 10.4 10.6 9.5 1.6 1.4 1.3 3.8 4.0 3.5Asia & Others average 11.6 11.9 9.8 1.5 1.4 1.3 5.7 5.5 4.6Global Average 14.4 13.6 11.1 1.6 1.5 1.4 5.5 5.0 4.3RefinersBPCL 5.0 9.7 11.7 10.2 1.5 1.4 1.3 8.2 7.2 6.4CPCL 0.3 NA 4.3 4.3 0.6 0.6 0.5 NA 4.9 4.8HPCL 1.8 21.5 10.9 8.9 0.7 0.7 0.7 49.3 10.4 8.5IOC 12.7 12.4 9.8 7.5 1.1 1.0 0.9 12.0 8.1 6.3MRPL 1.7 NA 6.6 5.9 1.3 1.1 1.0 11.0 4.6 3.8North America average 7.5 7.3 7.8 1.4 1.3 1.1 4.0 3.9 4.1Europe average 13.7 11.2 10.0 1.3 1.2 1.2 5.8 5.6 5.4Japan average 45.8 10.7 12.8 1.1 1.0 0.9 12.9 9.2 8.6Asia & Others average 87.1 19.2 16.2 2.6 2.4 2.3 18.3 11.1 10.5Global Average 45.6 13.5 12.2 1.9 1.7 1.6 11.1 7.8 7.5Gas UtilitiesGAIL 7.5 9.7 9.5 9.8 1.7 1.5 1.3 3.9 3.9 3.8GSPL 0.7 8.2 8.1 7.7 1.4 1.2 1.1 4.7 4.2 4.1IGL 0.7 11.2 9.8 8.8 2.8 2.4 2.0 5.8 4.9 4.2Petronet LNG 2.0 9.0 10.6 9.4 2.4 2.0 1.7 6.9 6.6 5.9North America average 25.9 24.1 20.4 2.8 2.7 2.7 13.2 11.3 9.9Asia & Others average 23.7 20.6 19.1 5.0 4.3 3.9 13.7 12.2 11.1Global Average 25.5 23.4 20.2 3.2 3.0 2.9 13.3 11.5 10.1Petrochemical CompaniesNorth America average 15.2 12.6 10.4 2.1 2.1 1.9 8.0 7.0 6.4Europe average 14.6 13.3 12.1 2.3 2.3 2.1 7.4 7.0 6.6Japan average 63.3 19.4 17.3 1.4 1.4 1.3 8.5 9.1 7.9Asia & Others average 40.7 15.7 13.7 1.2 1.2 1.1 16.9 20.2 19.0Global Average 28.6 14.7 12.9 1.9 1.8 1.7 10.3 10.9 10.1*All averages are weighted averages21April 2013

Valuation comparison to Global peers: Integrated CompaniesINTEGRATED E&P M Cap Abs performance (%) Relative performance (%)PE (x) P/BV (x) EV/EBIDTA (x)(USD b) 1-M 6-M 1-yr 3-yr 1-M 3-mo 6-M 1-yr 3-yrIndian CompaniesReliance Inds 47 (4) (9) 4 (31) (4) (5) (8) (3) (35) 12.2 11.8 11.2 1.4 1.3 1.2 7.7 8.3 7.9International MajorsBP 134 4 6 2 (28) 3 (3) (3) (9) (36) 7.7 8.2 7.3 1.1 1.1 1.0 4.4 4.3 4.0Chevron 229 0 1 12 52 (3) (2) (6) 0 14 9.6 9.5 9.4 1.7 1.5 1.4 3.9 4.0 3.9Exxon Mobil 403 1 (2) 6 34 (2) (7) (9) (5) 0 11.4 11.2 10.7 2.5 2.2 2.1 4.7 5.1 5.0Royal Dutch Shell 209 (2) (1) (1) 10 (3) (6) (10) (12) (1) 7.7 7.7 7.6 1.1 1.0 0.9 3.9 3.8 3.7Total 114 (2) (2) (1) (15) (3) (11) (11) (12) (24) 6.9 7.1 7.1 1.2 1.1 1.0 3.1 3.2 3.1Weighted Average 9.4 9.4 9.0 1.7 1.6 1.5 4.2 4.3 4.2US/CanadaConocoPhillips 72 3 3 2 47 (0) (9) (4) (8) 10 10.4 10.9 9.7 1.4 1.3 1.2 3.9 4.2 3.8Hess Corp 25 5 33 23 14 2 21 25 11 (14) 12.2 11.4 11.8 1.1 1.0 1.0 4.3 4.3 4.4Marathon 23 3 11 7 71 (0) (4) 4 (4) 29 12.9 11.2 10.5 1.2 1.1 1.0 3.4 3.0 2.9Occidental 65 (1) (5) (14) (6) (4) (6) (11) (23) (29) 11.7 11.1 10.4 1.6 1.5 1.3 5.1 4.5 4.1Husky Energy 29 (8) 9 18 (1) (10) (8) 2 6 (26) 13.8 14.9 12.9 1.5 1.5 1.4 5.6 5.6 4.8Suncor Energy 45 (0) (12) (5) (14) (3) (19) (18) (15) (35) 9.4 9.7 9.3 1.1 1.1 0.9 4.5 4.5 4.2Weighted Average 11.3 11.2 10.4 1.4 1.3 1.2 4.5 4.3 4.0EuropeENI 82 2 3 3 1 1 (12) (6) (9) (9) 8.8 9.0 8.5 1.1 1.0 1.0 2.9 2.9 2.8MOL 7 (1) (12) (6) (21) (2) (11) (20) (16) (29) 8.7 8.7 8.0 0.9 0.9 0.8 5.2 5.0 4.7Norsk Hydro 9 (1) (7) (18) (41) (2) (18) (16) (27) (47) 102.3 24.2 14.2 0.7 0.7 0.7 9.6 7.2 5.7OMV 14 0 23 29 13 (1) 14 11 15 2 7.4 7.6 7.5 0.9 0.9 0.8 3.5 3.6 3.5Repsol YPF SA 26 (5) 7 (12) (13) (6) (6) (3) (22) (22) 10.1 9.6 9.2 0.8 0.7 0.7 4.8 4.6 4.4Weighted Average 14.9 9.9 8.9 1.0 0.9 0.9 3.8 3.7 3.5OthersChina Petroleum & Chem 105 2 26 7 38 3 3 19 (0) 30 10.4 8.3 8.0 1.2 1.1 1.0 5.7 4.9 4.6CNOOC 86 2 (4) (6) 7 3 (9) (10) (13) 3 8.2 8.5 8.2 1.7 1.5 1.3 3.7 3.6 3.3Petrobras 111 9 (20) (17) (50) 8 (17) (27) (27) (55) 11.1 7.3 6.5 0.7 0.6 0.6 6.2 5.6 4.7PetroChina 256 (1) 3 (8) 9 0 (4) (4) (14) 5 12.6 11.1 10.4 1.4 1.3 1.2 6.3 5.7 5.3PTT 31 (6) 0 (9) 15 (5) (10) (14) (28) (39) 8.5 7.9 7.5 1.4 1.3 1.2 6.0 5.7 5.3Weighted Average 11.1 9.4 8.7 1.3 1.2 1.1 5.8 5.2 4.8Global Average 14.6 10.5 9.4 1.3 1.2 1.1 4.8 4.5 4.2*All averages are weighted averagesCY12/FY13CY13/FY14CY14/FY15CY12/FY13CY13/FY14CY14/FY15CY12/FY13CY13/FY14CY14/FY1522April 2013

N O T E S23April 2013

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