Energy and Transport.pdf - Richmond School District No. 38
Energy and Transport.pdf - Richmond School District No. 38 Energy and Transport.pdf - Richmond School District No. 38
SeriesMillion vehicles400350300250200150100500Light commercial vehicleHeavy commercial vehicleThree-wheelerCar/sports utility vehicleMotorbike2005 2008 2015 2025 2035Figure 2: Vehicle populations forecast in China 7Million tonnes of carbon dioxide40003500300025002000150010005000IndiaChina2005 2008 2015 2025 2035Figure 3: Total carbon dioxide emissions (well to exhaust) from on-roadvehicles: India and China 7requires energy for construction and maintenance.Furthermore, transport facilitates changes in land use,enabling deforestation and thus reducing the earth’sability to absorb carbon dioxide.Although transport emissions are rising faster inlow-income and middle-income countries than in thosewith high income, there remain massive globalinequalities in transport energy use both between andwithin countries. In 2003, global average consumption ofpetrol and diesel was 283 L per person per year, rangingfrom about 12 L per person per year in Nepal, Bangladesh,and Ethiopia to 2135 L per person per year in the USA. 4Walking remains the main mode of transport for thepoor in most countries.Attention is increasingly focused on China, with a fifthof the global population and rapid economic growth, andwhere consumption of petrol for transport nearly doubledbetween 1990 and 2003. 5 Although still substantiallybelow per-head distances in high-income countries, totalmotorised passenger-km rose six-fold between 1980and 2003, and freight distance increased nearly five-fold. 6Rapid urbanisation and motorisation have seen roadspace for cycling curtailed. The number of cars andsports-utility vehicles in China could increase 15-foldover the next 30 years to over 190 million, with carbondioxide emissions from transport increasing more thanthree-fold (figure 2 and figure 3), 7 a situation that wouldbe environmentally unsustainable. However, expectinglower-income countries to change trajectory whiletransport emissions in rich countries continue to risefrom much higher levels is unreasonable.Aviation is increasing and has a large effect on climatechange. In 2001, the Intergovernmental Panel on ClimateChange (IPCC) estimated that aviation caused 3·5% ofhuman-induced global warming, which could rise to 15%by 2050. In 2003 there were 1·6 billion trips by passengersworldwide and, by 2010, this figure could exceed2·3 billion. The UK has the highest air travel per head inEurope, with a fifth of international flights passingthrough UK airports. According to the UK Civil AviationAuthority, passenger numbers at UK airports have beengrowing at about 6% per year since the mid-1970s—morethan twice the rate of economic growth—and show nosign of slowing. The UK Department of Transportestimates that aviation contributes about 5·5% of UKcarbon-dioxide emissions, but about 11% of the UK’stotal effect on climate change. The UK’s share iscalculated by allocating emissions from half the flights toand from UK airports to the UK, but more than half ofthese flights are by UK citizens. Therefore, at thehousehold level, the contribution of flying is higher andcould be greater than from driving. 8,9 Recent studiesestimate that by 2030 UK total aviation emissions ofcarbon dioxide will rise from 32 million tonnes in 2000 to65–85 million tonnes. 10 These predictions includeprobable gains in efficiency.Most of the increase in UK flights has come fromwealthier individuals flying more. Trips by those in thelower-income bands fell between 2000 and 2004. 10 Evenwith cheap flights, foreign holidays remain too expensivefor those on low incomes. The average household incomeof UK leisure passengers travelling through Stanstedairport was £51 000 in 2005, according to the CivilAviation Authority’s 2005 Passenger Survey Report, 11compared with an average household income of £31 000.A survey of emissions in the UK, including all transportmodes, found that the top 10% of emitters producedalmost 43% of emissions whereas the bottom10% produced only 0·1%. 9Aviation is believed to have a greater effect on climatechange than its carbon emissions alone. Additionalcontributors include nitrogen oxides, soot, sulphateparticulates, and water vapour, which lead to theformation of contrails and cirrus clouds at altitude. Cirruscloud formation is difficult to predict and model. Theeffects of nitrogen oxides and water vapour vary by2 www.thelancet.com Published online September 13, 2007 DOI:10.1016/S0140-6736(07)61254-9
Seriesaltitude and weather conditions. Nitrogen oxides haveconflicting effects, both destroying ambient methane,but producing ozone, with a changing balance betweenthe two effects with time.Recent estimates suggest that the effect of aviation onclimate change is 1·9 times greater than that whichwould be due to its carbon emissions alone. 12 However,there is still considerable uncertainty about the size ofthis effect, and care must be taken in its application.First, cirrus cloud changes are excluded as too uncertainto estimate. Second, other activities produce non-carbongreenhouse-gas emissions. Third, this estimate is basedon the historical effect of emissions on climate changeand not the effect of current or future emissions onclimate. 10 Non-carbon-dioxide emissions have ashorter-term effect than does carbon dioxide, whichremains in the atmosphere for 100 years or more. Thusin 1 year the climate-forcing effect of a flight could be36 times the carbon emissions but this would fall to3·7 times over 20 years.Because the effect of aviation is greatest in the shortterm, controlling aviation becomes increasinglyimportant as climatic thresholds are reached. Moreover,just as the need for car travel is now built into the fabricof cities and into the economic and social lives of citizens,so increasingly is aviation, with airport expansion andthe purchasing of second homes overseas by the richerresidents of affluent countries.Transport, energy, and healthSome of the links for land transport are shown infigure 4.InjuriesThe energy intensity of road vehicles is reflected intheir effects on health. Because of the growth in traffic,many people are exposed to levels of kinetic energy thatcan and do result in serious injury. The WHO WorldReport on Road Traffic Injury Prevention estimated that1·2 million people were killed and 50 million peopleinjured in road-traffic crashes in 2002; 13 these figurescontinue to rise. Still a neglected epidemic, injuries areamong the leading causes of disease burden indeveloping countries, with the highest regionalroad-death rates in Africa (28 per 100 000 per year), andthe highest national rates in El Salvador (42 per100 000 per year) and the Dominican Republic (41 per100 000 per year). In addition to physical injury, mentalhealth can be affected by post-traumatic stressdisorder.Per kilometre travelled, heavy goods vehicles are twiceas likely to be involved in fatal crashes than are cars. Inmost settings, those at greatest risk are people on lowincomes who do not have the option of car travel andoften have to walk long distances on roads carryinghigh-speed vehicles. Public transport systems can beextremely safe; however, in many low-income countriessuch services are underdeveloped and poorly runinformal servises pose a high risk to passengers andother road users. 13,1434% of deaths of children due to injury in the EuropeanUnion (EU) are caused by road crashes and the distributionof these injuries varies greatly by country. Death rates fromroad collisions in Portugal, Lithuania, Estonia, and Latviaare almost six times greater than those in Malta, Sweden,Increases outcomeReduces outcomeEnergyintensivetransportResourceuseKineticenergy/dangerEmissionsLand usechangesEconomicdevelopmentGlobalecologicalstressOpportunitycostOilconsumptionCommunityseveranceDeathsandinjuriesPhysicalinactivityLocal andregionalpollutionClimatechangeSocialcapitalHealth gainsofdevelopmentSeveralhealthpathwaysHealthpromotingexpenditureDutchdisease/conflictPosttraumaticstressColon andbreastcancerDiabetesmellitusCardiopulmonarydiseaseAllergicillnessRespiratorydiseaseFigure 4: Selected pathways between transport and healthwww.thelancet.com Published online September 13, 2007 DOI:10.1016/S0140-6736(07)61254-9 3
- Page 1: SeriesEnergy and Health 3Energy and
- Page 6 and 7: SeriesSee Online for webappendix 1a
- Page 10 and 11: SeriesConclusionsThe health effects
SeriesMillion vehicles400350300250200150100500Light commercial vehicleHeavy commercial vehicleThree-wheelerCar/sports utility vehicleMotorbike2005 2008 2015 2025 2035Figure 2: Vehicle populations forecast in China 7Million tonnes of carbon dioxide40003500300025002000150010005000IndiaChina2005 2008 2015 2025 2035Figure 3: Total carbon dioxide emissions (well to exhaust) from on-roadvehicles: India <strong>and</strong> China 7requires energy for construction <strong>and</strong> maintenance.Furthermore, transport facilitates changes in l<strong>and</strong> use,enabling deforestation <strong>and</strong> thus reducing the earth’sability to absorb carbon dioxide.Although transport emissions are rising faster inlow-income <strong>and</strong> middle-income countries than in thosewith high income, there remain massive globalinequalities in transport energy use both between <strong>and</strong>within countries. In 2003, global average consumption ofpetrol <strong>and</strong> diesel was 283 L per person per year, rangingfrom about 12 L per person per year in Nepal, Bangladesh,<strong>and</strong> Ethiopia to 2135 L per person per year in the USA. 4Walking remains the main mode of transport for thepoor in most countries.Attention is increasingly focused on China, with a fifthof the global population <strong>and</strong> rapid economic growth, <strong>and</strong>where consumption of petrol for transport nearly doubledbetween 1990 <strong>and</strong> 2003. 5 Although still substantiallybelow per-head distances in high-income countries, totalmotorised passenger-km rose six-fold between 1980<strong>and</strong> 2003, <strong>and</strong> freight distance increased nearly five-fold. 6Rapid urbanisation <strong>and</strong> motorisation have seen roadspace for cycling curtailed. The number of cars <strong>and</strong>sports-utility vehicles in China could increase 15-foldover the next 30 years to over 190 million, with carbondioxide emissions from transport increasing more thanthree-fold (figure 2 <strong>and</strong> figure 3), 7 a situation that wouldbe environmentally unsustainable. However, expectinglower-income countries to change trajectory whiletransport emissions in rich countries continue to risefrom much higher levels is unreasonable.Aviation is increasing <strong>and</strong> has a large effect on climatechange. In 2001, the Intergovernmental Panel on ClimateChange (IPCC) estimated that aviation caused 3·5% ofhuman-induced global warming, which could rise to 15%by 2050. In 2003 there were 1·6 billion trips by passengersworldwide <strong>and</strong>, by 2010, this figure could exceed2·3 billion. The UK has the highest air travel per head inEurope, with a fifth of international flights passingthrough UK airports. According to the UK Civil AviationAuthority, passenger numbers at UK airports have beengrowing at about 6% per year since the mid-1970s—morethan twice the rate of economic growth—<strong>and</strong> show nosign of slowing. The UK Department of <strong>Transport</strong>estimates that aviation contributes about 5·5% of UKcarbon-dioxide emissions, but about 11% of the UK’stotal effect on climate change. The UK’s share iscalculated by allocating emissions from half the flights to<strong>and</strong> from UK airports to the UK, but more than half ofthese flights are by UK citizens. Therefore, at thehousehold level, the contribution of flying is higher <strong>and</strong>could be greater than from driving. 8,9 Recent studiesestimate that by 2030 UK total aviation emissions ofcarbon dioxide will rise from 32 million tonnes in 2000 to65–85 million tonnes. 10 These predictions includeprobable gains in efficiency.Most of the increase in UK flights has come fromwealthier individuals flying more. Trips by those in thelower-income b<strong>and</strong>s fell between 2000 <strong>and</strong> 2004. 10 Evenwith cheap flights, foreign holidays remain too expensivefor those on low incomes. The average household incomeof UK leisure passengers travelling through Stanstedairport was £51 000 in 2005, according to the CivilAviation Authority’s 2005 Passenger Survey Report, 11compared with an average household income of £31 000.A survey of emissions in the UK, including all transportmodes, found that the top 10% of emitters producedalmost 43% of emissions whereas the bottom10% produced only 0·1%. 9Aviation is believed to have a greater effect on climatechange than its carbon emissions alone. Additionalcontributors include nitrogen oxides, soot, sulphateparticulates, <strong>and</strong> water vapour, which lead to theformation of contrails <strong>and</strong> cirrus clouds at altitude. Cirruscloud formation is difficult to predict <strong>and</strong> model. Theeffects of nitrogen oxides <strong>and</strong> water vapour vary by2 www.thelancet.com Published online September 13, 2007 DOI:10.1016/S0140-6736(07)61254-9
Change language