chapter 4 - DRK

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Strictly under embargo until Wednesday 22 September at 00:01 GMT (02:01 Geneva time)40CHAPTER 2Theindex is most heavily influenced first of all by values of exposed assets and theirdegree of vulnerability. Figure 2.4 shows that Tokyo is, by far, the city at highest risk,followed by San Francisco. Of the 20 highest-risk cities in the index, 17 are in highincomecountries. This makes sense given that the index is trying to gauge the risk forinsurers and thus the value of exposed assets, which is greater in high-income countriesand is an important factor in understanding the potential for economic losses in adisaster.The index shows that for large disasters, the economic costs are often much higherin high-income nations and much of this will be in urban areas, but this is notan indicator of how many people faced serious economic losses and did not haveinsurance. The index does not at all convey the reality that very large numbers oflow-income urban dwellers can lose their homes and most or all their assets fromdisasters; the total monetary value of this is small but the hardships on individualsand families are immense.Vision two: Flood exposure in port citiesAn index published by the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Developmentranks 136 port cities of over 1 million population with high exposure to one-in-100-year, surge-induced flood events. It looks at the exposure of population and assets, in2005 and those predicted in 2070. Future predictions account for population growth,urbanization, ground subsidence and climatic changes.Population growth and investment in urban infrastructure are the most importantdrivers for increase in exposure to surge-induced floods. This is especially true in developingregions, which are expected to have large growth. Overall, without any increasein water levels, asset exposure could grow eight-fold. Climate changes, as predictedby the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change,including increased storm intensity and sea-level rise, also influence increased exposure.The influence of human-induced subsidence due to shallow groundwater extractionis especially important in deltaic cities that are rapidly developing.The index overwhelmingly shows that cities in Asia have the highest exposure to surgeinducedflooding now and in the future. Of the 20 cities with the highest populationexposure in 2005, half are in low- and middle-income nations in Asia. In real numbers,out of the total 38.5 million people currently exposed, 65 per cent of them live inAsian cities. Figure 2.5 shows the top 20 world port cities with exposed populationsin 2005. In the 2070s, the index predicts that 17 out of the 20 cities with the highestpopulation exposure will be in present-day low- and middle-income countries and14 out of 20 of the cities will be in Asia (four in China and two in Bangladesh). Asia’sincreasing dominance in terms of population and asset exposure is a result of increasedurbanization and economic growth during the period, compared with other regions.
Strictly under embargo until Wednesday 22 September at 00:01 GMT (02:01 Geneva time)Figure 2.5Port cities with highest exposed population in 2005 to one-in-100-year,surge-induced flood eventsRotterdam0.75mAmsterdam0.83mMumbai2.78mNew York1.54m Kolkata1.92mDhaka0.84mGuangzhou,Guangdong2.71mShanghai2.35mTianjin0.95mTokyo1.11mNew Orleans1.12mMiami2mAbidjan0.51mAlexandria1.33mBangkok0.90mShenzen0.70mHaiphong0.79mNagoya0.69mOsaka–Kobe1.37mHo Chi Minh City1.93mSource: Nicholls et al. (2008)As a result of projected growth and climatic change over the period, many smallercities will also experience very rapid increases in population exposure, for example,Mogadishu in Somalia and Conakry in Guinea are expected to see population exposureincreased by 12-fold (see Table 2.2). Of the 15 cities that will see the highestpopulation exposure increase, six of them are in sub-Saharan Africa and eight are inAsia. One needs to view these findings with caution, however, because the projectionsfor urban growth over the period may be totally distorted. Some countries, especiallythose in sub-Saharan Africa, may not have had a census for over 20 years. For example,Mogadishu is within a failed state, yet the index envisages it growing hugely.Nonetheless, while absolute exposure is low in some of these cities, a rapid increase inexposure to flooding can lead to increases in small-scale disasters. The potential for lossesat the household level in these cities is especially acute in the fast-growing and low-lyinginformal settlements lacking adequate flood protection and drainage infrastructure.Furthermore, Dhaka, Chittagong and Khulna in Bangladesh, Yangon in Myanmar andNingbo in China are all expected to experience high absolute exposure, meaning thatthese cities will also be at risk for large-scale flooding disasters, which could impact onlarge portions of the city, damaging infrastructure and economic activities.World Disasters Report 2010 – Focus on urban risk41
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214INDEXStrictly under embargo unti
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The International Federationof Red
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