chapter 4 - DRK

Strictly under embargo until Wednesday 22 September at 00:01 GMT (02:01 Geneva time)to peak if the planet is to have a chance of limiting temperature increase to between2 and 2.4 degrees Celsius. The general acceptance by the G8 of a 2 degrees Celsiusceiling may still be too much for many coastal cities’ defences and this needs to berecognized sooner rather than later when it comes to investment in disaster risk reduction.Entrenched dichotomies between climate change adaptation and disaster riskreduction need to be dismantled long before then to enable a focus on building urbanresilience. The International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies forexample, in its Strategy 2020, addresses climate change adaptation “through scaling updisaster risk reduction measures and strengthening traditional methods of coping withdisasters that are relevant in particular environmental contexts”.Climate change will have both a quantitative and a qualitative impact on the risksfacing urban areas in coming decades. In particular, the inability to predict futureemissions scenarios and the lack of precise knowledge about the impacts that thesewill have on the global climatic system means that urban residents and authorities willhave to deal with an increasing level of uncertainty around the frequency and intensityof extreme weather events. Many countries still have some way to go in order to catchup with reality: a WMO survey in 2006 showed that more than 60 per cent of its 189members are inadequately equipped to warn populations against hazards, particularlyin most vulnerable countries. It seems remarkable that it was only in April 2010 that30 ministers in charge of meteorology in Africa met for the first time under the auspicesof WMO and the African Union, given that Africa is so poorly equipped to dealwith climate change at both urban and rural levels.When combined with increasing levels of urbanization and ongoing social and environmentalproblems in towns and cities, risk and vulnerability for many urban residentsare likely to be exacerbated. The impacts of climate change will be distributedunevenly within urban populations, with low-income groups being particularly vulnerabledue to their greater exposure to hazards and their lower levels of adaptivecapacity. A focus on building resilience to cope with uncertainty, rather than applyingsolutions based on specific scenarios, is therefore the best way of protecting the livesand livelihoods of urban residents.The actions taken by urban authorities, civil society organizations and humanitarianagencies in urban areas can make a substantial difference to the ability of towns andcities – and their residents – to respond to disasters and climate change. For citydwellers in low-income and many middle-income countries, the biggest single issue isthe infrastructure deficit – the inability of urban systems to deal with current climatevariability. Many of the hazards and risks facing cities as a result of climate change aremodifications to existing hazards and risks – and cities that are unable to deal withthe challenges of today will be unable to deal with the new climate challenges of thefuture. Improved planning for disaster risks, including better short-term forecastingof shocks, is therefore also a key component for responding to climate change. At theWorld Disasters Report 2010 – Focus on urban risk133