chapter 4 - DRK

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Strictly under embargo until Wednesday 22 September at 00:01 GMT (02:01 Geneva time)Box 6.1 Key organizations and concepts in climate changeThe growing policy focus on climate changehas led to the development of new institutionsand the use of new terminology, some of whichdiffers from that used in disaster risk reduction.The Intergovernmental Panel onClimate Change (IPCC) is the global scientificbody established by the United NationsEnvironment Programme and the WorldMeteorological Organization (WMO). It producesAssessment Reports (most recently, theFourth Assessment Report in 2007) that summarizethe state of knowledge on climate changeand its potential consequences. Its preparationfor the Fifth Assessment Report acknowledges aneed for greater attention to adapting cities toclimate change and incorporating knowledgeand experience on disaster risk reduction.The United Nations Framework Conventionon Climate Change (UNFCCC)provides the global legislative frameworkfor reducing global warming and respondingto climate change and convenes the annualmeeting for negotiating emissions reductionsand adaptation financing known as theConference of Parties, or COP (e.g., COP15 inCopenhagen, held in December 2009).Greenhouse gases are gases thatab sorb and emit radiation of specific wavelengths,leading to the trapping of heat in theearth’s atmosphere, a process known as thegreenhouse effect. Although the processoccurs naturally and is important in supportinglife on earth, the emission of carbon dioxide,nitrous oxide, methane and other gases as aresult of human activity has raised the concentrationof these gases sufficiently to result inanthropogenic climate change.Adaptation is an adjustment in naturalor human systems in response to actual orexpected climate change in order to reduceits harmful impacts. It may take place beforethe impacts are felt, may be planned throughdeliberate policies, or may be spontaneous.It can involve individuals, communities, localgovernments and nation states.In the climate change arena, mitigationrefers to a reduction in atmospheric greenhousegases, thereby limiting the extent of anthropogenicclimate change. It involves both reducingthe quantities of emissions and enhancing theability of natural and human systems to absorbgreenhouse gases. Changing patterns of risk :The effects of climate changeAlthough the earth’s climate has always been dynamic, over the last 100 years globaltemperatures have been rising largely as a result of human activities, a process known asanthropogenic climate change. This has been driven by the production of greenhousegases – and their increasing concentration in the atmosphere – since the industrialrevolution. Observed changes include an increase in the global average temperature of0.740 degrees Celsius, increased ocean temperature and acidity, a decline in snow coveragein the northern hemisphere, more frequent and intense extreme weather events,shifts in the distribution of animal and plant species, and a rise in global average sealevels of 17 centimetres. The IPCC’s Fourth Assessment Report concluded that likelyfuture changes in climate include warmer and fewer cold days and nights, warmer and116
Strictly under embargo until Wednesday 22 September at 00:01 GMT (02:01 Geneva time)more frequent hot days and nights, increased frequency of warm spells and heatwavesover most land areas, increased frequency of heavy precipitation events over mostareas, increased areas affected by drought, increased intense tropical cyclone activityand increased incidence of extreme high sea level. These changes will result in a rangeof impacts on urban areas, as shown in Table 6.1.Table 6.1 Climate change impacts on urban areasChange in climateChanges in meansTemperaturePrecipitationSea-level riseChanges in extremesExtreme rainfall / tropical cyclonesDroughtHeat- or cold-wavesAbrupt climate changeChanges in exposurePopulation movementsBiological changesPossible impact on urban areasIncreased energy demands for heating / coolingWorsening of air qualityExaggerated by urban heat islandsIncreased risk of floodingIncreased risk of landslidesDistress migration from rural areas as a result of crop failuresInterruption of food supply networksCoastal floodingReduced income from agriculture and tourismSalinization of water sourcesMore intense floodingHigher risk of landslidesDisruption to livelihoods and city economiesDamage to homes and businessesWater shortagesHigher food pricesDisruption of hydroelectricityDistress migration from rural areasShort-term increase in energy demands for heating / coolingPossible significant impacts from rapid and extreme sea-level riseMovements from stressed rural habitatsExtended vector habitatsSource: Adapted from Wilbanks et al. (2007)The extent to which urban centres are vulnerable to these changes in climate is influencedby a variety of factors. The location of cities affects the types of climate hazardsto which they are exposed, and whether they are particularly likely to be affected byhigher temperatures, changing patterns in precipitation, sea-level rise or more frequentor severe extreme events. However, and more importantly, vulnerability to theseimpacts is mediated through the social and economic circumstances of the city and itsresidents, and through the ability of stakeholders and institutions to address the challengesof climate change, sometimes referred to as adaptive capacity. Because of this,cities in low- and middle-income nations are particularly vulnerable to climate change– indeed, the IPCC concluded that “the distribution of impacts and vulnerabilities isWorld Disasters Report 2010 – Focus on urban risk117
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214INDEXStrictly under embargo unti
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The International Federationof Red
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