chapter 4 - DRK

Strictly under embargo until Wednesday 22 September at 00:01 GMT (02:01 Geneva time)SARS caused near global panic for a while after it erupted in mainland China and thenHong Kong in late 2002 and early 2003. It has been called the first disease of the internetage because global communications helped fan fears about its potentially deadlyimpact. In the end only some 8,000 people caught the respiratory disease, mainlyin South-East Asia and Canada, but it was fatal in nearly 900 cases. The newness ofthe disease, the fact that it was initially little understood and its high fatality rate,compared with the one in 1,000 of normal seasonal influenza, all stoked the worldwideanxiety. International flights were cancelled and schools, shops and offices shut inheavily affected cities such as Hong Kong and Singapore.People in Hong Kong stopped going out and donned face masks. Sales of bottledvinegar soared because it was believed to act as an effective disinfectant. Tourism inthe most affected areas slumped. Switzerland even barred jewellers from Hong Kongfrom taking part in the annual international jewellery fair at Basle, and the women’ssoccer World Cup was moved from China to the United States. Hong Kong’s economyshrank 2.6 per cent and Singapore’s by 2 per cent in the first half of 2003. Overall, theAsian Development Bank estimated losses in tourism revenue at nearly US$ 15 billion,or 0.5 per cent of gross domestic product.Fortunately, the H5N1 virus, with a fatality rate of some 60 per cent – far higher thanSARS – is not easily transmitted between humans. Since first appearing in China andViet Nam in 2003, it has infected some 500 people, mainly in South-East Asia andEgypt. Nearly 300 deaths have been confirmed. The disease is now endemic in poultryin certain parts of the world. Worryingly, cities of South-East Asia – where the keepingof live poultry and live poultry markets are common – offer a pool of possible futureinfection and raise the spectre that the virus could yet mutate and pose a new threat.If the H5N1 virus were as contagious as the latest new influenza bug – H1N1 –then the impact in terms of loss of life could be catastrophic. H1N1, which was firstdetected in Mexico in April 2009, has been among the fastest-spreading viruses everrecorded. By the time WHO declared a global pandemic a mere two months later,74 countries and territories had reported infections. As of April 2010, cases had beenreported in 214 countries, including 17,798 deaths. Again, cities speeded contagionlocally, with international travel doing the rest.“In terms of risk management human populations are now forced to live in a way thatprovides a wonderful point of amplification for disease and then travel and trade andthe whole connection between these urban centres is creating a pathway to globalizationfor these diseases,” noted WHO’s Ryan.Perhaps one of the best examples of how urban living can stoke epidemics is the tropicaldisease dengue fever. The incidence of dengue, whose effects can range from mild fever tofatal haemorrhaging, has grown dramatically worldwide to the point that some 2.5 billionWorld Disasters Report 2010 – Focus on urban risk103