2010 Report - Pennsylvania Public Utility Commission

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• Innovative resource planning and implementation mechanisms are needed to ensure thetimely development, siting, construction, and operation of necessary and appropriatetransmission infrastructure to facilitate achieving the goals and objectives of the variousclimate change initiatives.• As demand side resources become an increasingly significant component of the resourcemix, effective integration and verification of these resources will be vital to maintainingreliability.Reserve margins in many NERC regions have increased compared to 2008 projections due inlarge part to the economic recession, which has reduced demand projections. An increase indemand side management programs and the addition of new resources have also contributed tothis trend. Demand is projected to grow within the next three years as the economy recovers.Demand is projected to increase 14.8 percent between 2009 and 2018, compared to 16.8 percentbetween 2008 and 2017, as forecast in last year’s report. The projected compound annualgrowth rate over the 10-year period for peak demand has decreased from 1.6 percent in 2008projections to 1.5 percent in 2009 projections. This projected growth rate reflects a continueddecline from previous forecast periods and parallels a decline in the growth in projected energyuse over similar forecast periods.Net internal demand in the United States is expected to increase by 111,799 MW or an average of1.6 percent per year for the next nine years, while deliverable capacity resources (existing-certain,resources, future-planned resources, and net firm and expected transactions) are projected toincrease by 78,380 MW or 8.4 percent (0.9 percent annually). Reserve margins are expected todecline from 24.1 percent in summer 2009 to 17.4 percent in 2018.If a region/subregion provides its own specific margin level based on load, generation andtransmission characteristics, as well as regulatory requirements, that level is adopted as theNERC Reference Reserve Margin Level. If not, NERC assigns a 15 percent reserve margin forpredominately thermal systems and 10 percent for predominately hydro systems. The NERCReference Reserve Margin Level of 15 percent is used in the United States to identify whenadditional resources may be needed. The existing capacity sufficiently meets the NERCReference Reserve Margin Level through 2018.64Pennsylvania Public Utility Commission
ReliabilityFirst CorporationReliabilityFirst Corporation (RFC) is one of eightregional reliability councils within NERC, and hasreplaced the reliability oversight functions ofMAAC, ECAR and MAIN. The two main controlareas within the RFC footprint are the PJM RTOand MISO. Two-thirds of the RFC load is in PJM.From the perspective of the RTOs, 60 percent of theMISO load and 85 percent of the PJM load is withinRFC. The reliability of these two RTOs determinesthe reliability of the RFC region. The reliabilityassessment summarized herein reflects the resourceadequacy of each RTO based on their individual reserve margin requirements. 67Compliance StandardsAnalyses were conducted by PJM and MISO to determine the reserve margins that were equivalentto the RFC Loss of Load Expectation (LOLE) criterion of not exceeding one occurrence in 10years (0.1 day/year) on an annual basis for their planning area. RFC’s assessment of long-termPJM resource adequacy is based on the reserve margin target determined from the PJM ReliabilityPricing Model analysis for the planning year 2009-10. This reserve margin target is 15.0 percentfor 2009, 15.5 percent for 2010 and 2011, and 16.2 percent thereafter. The 2009 PJM ReserveRequirement Study, however, recommends a 15.3 percent margin beyond 2012. 68 The MISOreserve margin target for 2009 was 15.4 percent, and is used to assess each of the next 10 years.The reserve margin targets are used as a general indicator of the overall adequacy of resources inthe RFC region. 69Reliability AssessmentRFC anticipates that sufficient resources will be available for PJM, MISO and the RFC regionalarea to have adequate reserves throughout the next 10 years. Summer reserve margins range froma high of 27.2 percent in 2009, declining to 18.2 percent in 2018. This assessment assumes thatfuture planned and a portion of conceptual capacity is deliverable. Based only on existingresources, the reserve margins are projected to decline from 26.9 percent in 2009, to 11.7 percentin 2018, which is an improvement over the previous forecast, due mainly to current economicconditions. See Figure 54.67 NERC, 2009 Long-Term Reliability Assessment, October 2009.68 PJM, 2009 PJM Reserve Requirement Study, Nov. 4, 2009.69 RFC, Long Term Resource Assessment 2009-2018, October 2009.Electric Power Outlook for Pennsylvania 2009-2014 65
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ELECTRIC POWER OUTLOOKFOR PENNSYLVA
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adequate reserve margin. Net capaci
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Section 3 - Regional ReliabilityReg
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Regional Reliability OrganizationsI
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Figure 1 NERC regionsNote: The high
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Figure 3 PJM RTO service territoryO
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Figure 5 Mid-Atlantic Area National
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Trans-Allegheny Interstate LineThe
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September 2009. A Recommended Decis
Page 20 and 21: suppliers or purchased power from t
Page 22 and 23: AECs are earned when a qualified fa
Page 24 and 25: Smart Meters and Time-of-Use RatesS
Page 26 and 27: Section 2 - Historic and Forecast D
Page 28 and 29: Figure 10 Pennsylvania aggregate no
Page 30 and 31: Most utilities have employed a comb
Page 32 and 33: Figure 13 Pennsylvania residential
Page 34 and 35: Figure 15 Pennsylvania industrial u
Page 36 and 37: Figure 17 Average deviation in peak
Page 38 and 39: Summary of EDC DataThe following se
Page 40 and 41: Figure 27 Duquesne Light Company pe
Page 42 and 43: 2000. Average annual use per reside
Page 44 and 45: Figure 32 Metropolitan Edison Compa
Page 46 and 47: Figure 33 Pennsylvania Electric Com
Page 48 and 49: percent and an industrial growth ra
Page 50 and 51: Figure 38 Pennsylvania Power Compan
Page 52 and 53: Figure 39 PPL Electric Utilities Co
Page 54 and 55: PECO's 2009 summer peak load, occur
Page 56 and 57: Figure 44 PECO Energy Company avera
Page 58 and 59: commercial (24.3 percent). Average
Page 60 and 61: Figure 48 West Penn Power Company a
Page 62 and 63: Figure 50 UGI Utilities Inc. peak l
Page 64 and 65: sales, followed by residential with
Page 66 and 67: Figure 53 Wellsboro Electric Compan
Page 68 and 69: system and to make recommendations
Page 72 and 73: Figure 54 RFC 2009-2018 reserve mar
Page 74 and 75: The MISO reserve margin for existin
Page 76 and 77: PennsylvaniaThe Pennsylvania electr
Page 78 and 79: GWh more than they generated. Figur
Page 80 and 81: Susquehanna Steam Electric Station,
Page 82 and 83: Table A01 Duquesne Light CompanyTab
Page 84 and 85: Table A09 Pennsylvania Electric Com
Page 86 and 87: Table A17 PPL Electric Utilities Co
Page 88 and 89: Table A25 West Penn Power CompanyTa
Page 90 and 91: Status of Pennsylvania's Plant Addi
Page 96 and 97: Appendix C - Existing Generating Fa
Page 98 and 99: Pennsylvania's Existing Electric Ge
Page 100: Nuclear Power Plants in Pennsylvani
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2010 Report - Pennsylvania Public Utility Commission

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