2010 Report - Pennsylvania Public Utility Commission

This includes a residential growth rate of 0.1 percent, a commercial growth rate of 1.6 percent andan industrial growth rate of 2.9 percent. See Figure 33.Penelec’s 2009 summer peak load, occurring on Aug. 17, 2009, was 2,451 MW, representing adecrease of 14.9 percent from last year’s summer peak of 2,880 MW. The 2009-10 winter peakload was 2,346 MW or 18.1 percent lower than the previous year’s winter peak of 2,866 MW. Theaverage change in the annual summer peak load over the past 15 years was -0.2 percent per year.Penelec’s forecast shows its summer peak load increasing at an average annual rate of 0.6 percent,rising to 2,531 MW by 2014, or 349 MW less than the 2008 all-time peak of 2,880 MW. Thecurrent forecast for 2010 is 6.3 percent below the previous forecast. See Figure 34.Figure 35 depicts the average of deviations in forecasts made one to three years in advance. TablesA09-A12 in Appendix A provide Penelec’s forecasts of peak load and residential, commercial andindustrial energy demand, filed with the Commission in years 2000 through 2010.A restructuring settlement, approved by the Commission in 1998, provided for the transfer of 80percent of Penelec’s POLR responsibility to other generation suppliers by June 2003. Since thisdid not occur, Penelec retains POLR responsibility for those customers who do not choose analternate energy supplier and currently supplies nearly all of its POLR customers.Penelec divested all of its generation facilities in 1999.In 2009, Penelec purchased 3,082 GWh from cogeneration and small power production projects, or21.5 percent of net energy for load. Contract capacity (defined as PJM installed capacity credits) is370 MW out of a total capacity of 411 MW.For Calendar Year 2009, two licensed EGSs sold a total of 528 GWh to retail customers inPenelec’s service territory, or 3.9 percent of total consumption, up from 3.0 percent in 2008.Through 2012, Penelec’s transmission line projects include construction of new lines andreconductoring of existing lines to improve local service at a combined cost of $11.7 million.Projects include 9.4 miles of 115 kV, 230 kV and 500 kV circuits.Penelec’s Energy Efficiency and Conservation Plan 59 offers a suite of programs for all customersegments designed to reach cumulative reduction targets of 432 GWh and 108 MW at a total costof $91.9 million.Penelec is a member of PJM and RFC.59 Docket No. M-2009-2112952.Electric Power Outlook for Pennsylvania 2009-2014 39