2010 Report - Pennsylvania Public Utility Commission

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Figure 17 Average deviation in peak loadforecasts (%)6543210Figure 18 Average deviation in commercialforecasts (%)6543211 2 3 4 5Years Forecast in AdvanceFigure 19 Average deviation in residentialforecasts (%)6543210Figure 20 Average deviation in industrialforecasts (%)121086421 2 3 4 5Years Forecast in Advance01 2 3 4 5Years Forecast in Advance01 2 3 4 5Years Forecast in AdvanceMost utility forecasts have appreciably improved over time. There is, however, a significant rangein the magnitude of forecast deviations from company to company. At the extremes, PPL’s peakload forecast deviations have ranged from 2.6 percent to 4.7 percent, whereas Penn Power’sdeviations ranged from 7.6 percent to 9.2 percent. Figures 21-24 compare EDCs’ absolute averageforecast deviations from actual figures for peak load and residential, commercial and industrialenergy demand for forecasts made one to five years in advance.There has been little difference between the forecast accuracy of the residential and commercialsectors; however, forecasts for both of these sectors have, for the most part, been considerablymore accurate than those made for the industrial sector.Generally, residential and commercial energy demand has tended to be underestimated; whereasindustrial energy demand has been overestimated. This can be seen in Figure 25 where the averageshort-term forecast error (deviation) is examined for peak load and for each major customer class.30Pennsylvania Public Utility Commission
Figure 21 Comparison of peak loadforecast accuracy (%)109876543210DL ME PN PP PL PE WP1 2 3 4 5Years Forecast in AdvanceFigure 22 Comparison of residential energydemand forecast accuracy (%)9876543210DL ME PN PP PL PE WP1 2 3 4 5Years Forecast in AdvanceFigure 23 Comparison of commercialenergy demand forecast accuracy (%)876543210DL ME PN PP PL PE WP1 2 3 4 5Years Forecast in AdvanceFigure 24 Comparison of industrial energydemand forecast accuracy (%)20181614121086420DL ME PN PP PL PE WP1 2 3 4 5Years Forecast in AdvanceFigure 25 Average of deviations in forecasts made one to three years in advance (%)10Industrial8642CommercialPeak LoadResidential0-2-4-62000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007Electric Power Outlook for Pennsylvania 2009-2014 31
Page 2 and 3: ELECTRIC POWER OUTLOOKFOR PENNSYLVA
Page 4 and 5: adequate reserve margin. Net capaci
Page 6 and 7: Section 3 - Regional ReliabilityReg
Page 8 and 9: Regional Reliability OrganizationsI
Page 10 and 11: Figure 1 NERC regionsNote: The high
Page 12 and 13: Figure 3 PJM RTO service territoryO
Page 14 and 15: Figure 5 Mid-Atlantic Area National
Page 16 and 17: Trans-Allegheny Interstate LineThe
Page 18 and 19: September 2009. A Recommended Decis
Page 20 and 21: suppliers or purchased power from t
Page 22 and 23: AECs are earned when a qualified fa
Page 24 and 25: Smart Meters and Time-of-Use RatesS
Page 26 and 27: Section 2 - Historic and Forecast D
Page 28 and 29: Figure 10 Pennsylvania aggregate no
Page 30 and 31: Most utilities have employed a comb
Page 32 and 33: Figure 13 Pennsylvania residential
Page 34 and 35: Figure 15 Pennsylvania industrial u
Page 38 and 39: Summary of EDC DataThe following se
Page 40 and 41: Figure 27 Duquesne Light Company pe
Page 42 and 43: 2000. Average annual use per reside
Page 44 and 45: Figure 32 Metropolitan Edison Compa
Page 46 and 47: Figure 33 Pennsylvania Electric Com
Page 48 and 49: percent and an industrial growth ra
Page 50 and 51: Figure 38 Pennsylvania Power Compan
Page 52 and 53: Figure 39 PPL Electric Utilities Co
Page 54 and 55: PECO's 2009 summer peak load, occur
Page 56 and 57: Figure 44 PECO Energy Company avera
Page 58 and 59: commercial (24.3 percent). Average
Page 60 and 61: Figure 48 West Penn Power Company a
Page 62 and 63: Figure 50 UGI Utilities Inc. peak l
Page 64 and 65: sales, followed by residential with
Page 66 and 67: Figure 53 Wellsboro Electric Compan
Page 68 and 69: system and to make recommendations
Page 70 and 71: • Innovative resource planning an
Page 72 and 73: Figure 54 RFC 2009-2018 reserve mar
Page 74 and 75: The MISO reserve margin for existin
Page 76 and 77: PennsylvaniaThe Pennsylvania electr
Page 78 and 79: GWh more than they generated. Figur
Page 80 and 81: Susquehanna Steam Electric Station,
Page 82 and 83: Table A01 Duquesne Light CompanyTab
Page 84 and 85: Table A09 Pennsylvania Electric Com
Page 86 and 87:
Table A17 PPL Electric Utilities Co
Page 88 and 89:
Table A25 West Penn Power CompanyTa
Page 90 and 91:
Status of Pennsylvania's Plant Addi
Page 92 and 93:
Page 94 and 95:
Page 96 and 97:
Appendix C - Existing Generating Fa
Page 98 and 99:
Pennsylvania's Existing Electric Ge
Page 100:
Nuclear Power Plants in Pennsylvani
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2010 Report - Pennsylvania Public Utility Commission

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