2010 Report - Pennsylvania Public Utility Commission

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Figure 15 Pennsylvania industrial usage and annual growth1210Annual GrowthUsage86Forecast1401351304125Percent Change20-2-4-6120115110GWh Per Day-8105-10100-12-1495-1690Growth in Pennsylvania’s total electric consumption is expected to increase by 1.8 percent in 2010and 1.0 percent in 2011. In comparison, total U.S. consumption is projected to increase by 3.0percent in 2010 and grow by 1.2 percent in 2011. 55Aggregate non-coincident peak load increased from 14,812 MW in 1970 to 27,597 MW in 2009, atan annual average rate of 1.6 percent. Peak load is expected to increase to 29,550 MW by 2014,500 MW less than the 2008 load, at an average annual rate of 1.4 percent. See Figure 16.55 Short-Term Energy Outlook, Energy Information Administration, April 2010.28Pennsylvania Public Utility Commission
Figure 16 Pennsylvania non-coincident peak load and annual growth10Annual Growth86Forecast33,00031,00029,000Percent Change420-2-4-6-8-10Peak Load27,00025,00023,00021,00019,00017,00015,000Megawatts-1213,000Trends in Forecast AccuracySince electricity use is a function of several forces outside the control of the utilities, forecasts offuture electricity requirements cannot be any more certain than the forecasts of those externalforces. Although all utilities have had some degree of difficulty in adjusting to the dramaticchanges in electricity use, some utilities have fared better than others. This may, in part, beattributable to the stability (or volatility) of each utility’s service territory.During the 1970s and early 1980s, forecast deviations from actual figures quickly becameexcessive. Forecasts of peak load made three years in advance were, on average, 10 percent higherthan actual demand. Forecasts made five years in advance were 20 percent higher. Over the lastfew years, however, forecast deviations have shown no appreciable difference as to whetherforecasts are made one, two or even five years in advance. Peak load forecast deviations havevaried only slightly, from 4.7 percent to 5.7 percent, based on the average of forecast deviations foreach company. Deviation magnitudes have diminished over time. See Figure 17. (Available datapoints decrease from 10 for forecasts made one year in advance to six for forecasts made five yearsin advance.)Energy demand forecast deviations have also diminished over time. Unlike the peak loadforecasts, however, there is a definite pattern of increasing forecast deviation magnitudes as theforecasts advance into the future. Figures 18-20 show the absolute deviations from actual for theresidential, commercial and industrial sectors, for forecasts made one to five years in advance.Electric Power Outlook for Pennsylvania 2009-2014 29
Page 2 and 3: ELECTRIC POWER OUTLOOKFOR PENNSYLVA
Page 4 and 5: adequate reserve margin. Net capaci
Page 6 and 7: Section 3 - Regional ReliabilityReg
Page 8 and 9: Regional Reliability OrganizationsI
Page 10 and 11: Figure 1 NERC regionsNote: The high
Page 12 and 13: Figure 3 PJM RTO service territoryO
Page 14 and 15: Figure 5 Mid-Atlantic Area National
Page 16 and 17: Trans-Allegheny Interstate LineThe
Page 18 and 19: September 2009. A Recommended Decis
Page 20 and 21: suppliers or purchased power from t
Page 22 and 23: AECs are earned when a qualified fa
Page 24 and 25: Smart Meters and Time-of-Use RatesS
Page 26 and 27: Section 2 - Historic and Forecast D
Page 28 and 29: Figure 10 Pennsylvania aggregate no
Page 30 and 31: Most utilities have employed a comb
Page 32 and 33: Figure 13 Pennsylvania residential
Page 36 and 37: Figure 17 Average deviation in peak
Page 38 and 39: Summary of EDC DataThe following se
Page 40 and 41: Figure 27 Duquesne Light Company pe
Page 42 and 43: 2000. Average annual use per reside
Page 44 and 45: Figure 32 Metropolitan Edison Compa
Page 46 and 47: Figure 33 Pennsylvania Electric Com
Page 48 and 49: percent and an industrial growth ra
Page 50 and 51: Figure 38 Pennsylvania Power Compan
Page 52 and 53: Figure 39 PPL Electric Utilities Co
Page 54 and 55: PECO's 2009 summer peak load, occur
Page 56 and 57: Figure 44 PECO Energy Company avera
Page 58 and 59: commercial (24.3 percent). Average
Page 60 and 61: Figure 48 West Penn Power Company a
Page 62 and 63: Figure 50 UGI Utilities Inc. peak l
Page 64 and 65: sales, followed by residential with
Page 66 and 67: Figure 53 Wellsboro Electric Compan
Page 68 and 69: system and to make recommendations
Page 70 and 71: • Innovative resource planning an
Page 72 and 73: Figure 54 RFC 2009-2018 reserve mar
Page 74 and 75: The MISO reserve margin for existin
Page 76 and 77: PennsylvaniaThe Pennsylvania electr
Page 78 and 79: GWh more than they generated. Figur
Page 80 and 81: Susquehanna Steam Electric Station,
Page 82 and 83: Table A01 Duquesne Light CompanyTab
Page 84 and 85:
Table A09 Pennsylvania Electric Com
Page 86 and 87:
Table A17 PPL Electric Utilities Co
Page 88 and 89:
Table A25 West Penn Power CompanyTa
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Status of Pennsylvania's Plant Addi
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Page 94 and 95:
Page 96 and 97:
Appendix C - Existing Generating Fa
Page 98 and 99:
Pennsylvania's Existing Electric Ge
Page 100:
Nuclear Power Plants in Pennsylvani
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2010 Report - Pennsylvania Public Utility Commission

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