2010 Report - Pennsylvania Public Utility Commission

Figure 14 Pennsylvania commercial usage and annual growth1110Usage9Annual Growth87Forecast1401301201106100Percent Change5432908070GWh Per Day1600-1-25040-330Industrial sales have fluctuated considerably, particularly during the 1970s and 1980s, as can beseen in Figure 15. Between 1970 and 2009, growth in aggregate industrial demand has averaged177 GWh per year, or an average annual rate of 0.4 percent.Since 2000, industrial sales have declined 12.1 percent. Last year’s sales decreased 9.2 percentfrom 2008, and the forecast for 2010 is 7.8 percent below the 2008 level. From 2009 to 2014,industrial growth is projected to average 1.6 percent.The recent drop in industrial sales has been, for the most part, the result of the economic recession.Prior to 2009, there were two other significant declines in the industrial energy market. Asignificant drop in sales (7.8 percent) followed the 1973 OPEC Oil Embargo, which quadrupledthe price of oil. 52 The 1979 energy crisis occurred in the wake of the Iranian Revolution; at thesame time, the Carter Administration began a phased deregulation of oil prices, and, within 12months, the price of crude oil increased 150 percent. 53 Shortly after, a substantial drop in Iran’s oilproduction, followed by a drop in Saudi Arabia’s output occurred. 54 In 1982, the largest drop inindustrial sales occurred (13.6 percent). Duquesne alone lost 40.7 percent of its industrial load thatyear.52 U.S. Department of State, Office of the Historian, OPEC Oil Embargo, 1973-1974.53 The New York Times, March 3, 2008.54 Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Review 2008, Fig. 11.5, p. 314.Electric Power Outlook for Pennsylvania 2009-2014 27