2010 Report - Pennsylvania Public Utility Commission

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Figure 13 Pennsylvania residential usage and annual growth111098Annual GrowthForecast1501401307120Percent Change6543211101009080GWh Per Day070-1-2-3-4Usage605040Growth in commercial consumption has been relatively consistent, increasing at a levelized annualrate of 3.8 percent since 1970. Although year-to-year growth rates have been declining over theyears, demand continues to grow an average of 825 GWh per year.In 2009, commercial usage dropped 1.8 percent, following a decrease of 0.2 percent the previousyear. The five-year forecast shows annual growth averaging 897 GWh, or an average annualgrowth rate of 1.9 percent. See Figure 14.26Pennsylvania Public Utility Commission
Figure 14 Pennsylvania commercial usage and annual growth1110Usage9Annual Growth87Forecast1401301201106100Percent Change5432908070GWh Per Day1600-1-25040-330Industrial sales have fluctuated considerably, particularly during the 1970s and 1980s, as can beseen in Figure 15. Between 1970 and 2009, growth in aggregate industrial demand has averaged177 GWh per year, or an average annual rate of 0.4 percent.Since 2000, industrial sales have declined 12.1 percent. Last year’s sales decreased 9.2 percentfrom 2008, and the forecast for 2010 is 7.8 percent below the 2008 level. From 2009 to 2014,industrial growth is projected to average 1.6 percent.The recent drop in industrial sales has been, for the most part, the result of the economic recession.Prior to 2009, there were two other significant declines in the industrial energy market. Asignificant drop in sales (7.8 percent) followed the 1973 OPEC Oil Embargo, which quadrupledthe price of oil. 52 The 1979 energy crisis occurred in the wake of the Iranian Revolution; at thesame time, the Carter Administration began a phased deregulation of oil prices, and, within 12months, the price of crude oil increased 150 percent. 53 Shortly after, a substantial drop in Iran’s oilproduction, followed by a drop in Saudi Arabia’s output occurred. 54 In 1982, the largest drop inindustrial sales occurred (13.6 percent). Duquesne alone lost 40.7 percent of its industrial load thatyear.52 U.S. Department of State, Office of the Historian, OPEC Oil Embargo, 1973-1974.53 The New York Times, March 3, 2008.54 Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Review 2008, Fig. 11.5, p. 314.Electric Power Outlook for Pennsylvania 2009-2014 27
Page 2 and 3: ELECTRIC POWER OUTLOOKFOR PENNSYLVA
Page 4 and 5: adequate reserve margin. Net capaci
Page 6 and 7: Section 3 - Regional ReliabilityReg
Page 8 and 9: Regional Reliability OrganizationsI
Page 10 and 11: Figure 1 NERC regionsNote: The high
Page 12 and 13: Figure 3 PJM RTO service territoryO
Page 14 and 15: Figure 5 Mid-Atlantic Area National
Page 16 and 17: Trans-Allegheny Interstate LineThe
Page 18 and 19: September 2009. A Recommended Decis
Page 20 and 21: suppliers or purchased power from t
Page 22 and 23: AECs are earned when a qualified fa
Page 24 and 25: Smart Meters and Time-of-Use RatesS
Page 26 and 27: Section 2 - Historic and Forecast D
Page 28 and 29: Figure 10 Pennsylvania aggregate no
Page 30 and 31: Most utilities have employed a comb
Page 34 and 35: Figure 15 Pennsylvania industrial u
Page 36 and 37: Figure 17 Average deviation in peak
Page 38 and 39: Summary of EDC DataThe following se
Page 40 and 41: Figure 27 Duquesne Light Company pe
Page 42 and 43: 2000. Average annual use per reside
Page 44 and 45: Figure 32 Metropolitan Edison Compa
Page 46 and 47: Figure 33 Pennsylvania Electric Com
Page 48 and 49: percent and an industrial growth ra
Page 50 and 51: Figure 38 Pennsylvania Power Compan
Page 52 and 53: Figure 39 PPL Electric Utilities Co
Page 54 and 55: PECO's 2009 summer peak load, occur
Page 56 and 57: Figure 44 PECO Energy Company avera
Page 58 and 59: commercial (24.3 percent). Average
Page 60 and 61: Figure 48 West Penn Power Company a
Page 62 and 63: Figure 50 UGI Utilities Inc. peak l
Page 64 and 65: sales, followed by residential with
Page 66 and 67: Figure 53 Wellsboro Electric Compan
Page 68 and 69: system and to make recommendations
Page 70 and 71: • Innovative resource planning an
Page 72 and 73: Figure 54 RFC 2009-2018 reserve mar
Page 74 and 75: The MISO reserve margin for existin
Page 76 and 77: PennsylvaniaThe Pennsylvania electr
Page 78 and 79: GWh more than they generated. Figur
Page 80 and 81: Susquehanna Steam Electric Station,
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Table A01 Duquesne Light CompanyTab
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Table A09 Pennsylvania Electric Com
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Table A17 PPL Electric Utilities Co
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Table A25 West Penn Power CompanyTa
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Status of Pennsylvania's Plant Addi
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Appendix C - Existing Generating Fa
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Pennsylvania's Existing Electric Ge
Page 100:
Nuclear Power Plants in Pennsylvani
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2010 Report - Pennsylvania Public Utility Commission

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