2010 Report - Pennsylvania Public Utility Commission

Executive SummaryIntroductionSection 524(a) of the Public Utility Code (Code) requires jurisdictional electric distributioncompanies to submit to the Commission information concerning plans and projections for meetingfuture customer demand. 1 The Commission’s regulations set forth the form and content of suchinformation, which is to be filed on or before May 1 of each year. 2 Section 524(b) of the Coderequires that the Commission prepare an annual report summarizing and discussing the dataprovided, on or before Sept. 1. This report is to be submitted to the General Assembly, theGovernor, the Office of Consumer Advocate and each affected public utility. 3Since the enactment of the Electricity Generation Customer Choice and Competition Act, 4 theCommission’s regulations have been modified to reflect the competitive market. Thus, projectionsof generating capability and overall system reliability have been obtained from regionalassessments.OverviewThis report concludes that there is sufficient generation, transmission and distribution capacity toreasonably meet the needs of Pennsylvania’s electricity consumers for the near future. Additionalgenerating capacity will likely be needed by 2015.Regional generation adequacy and reserve margins of the Mid-Atlantic area have been maintained.While sufficient generation capacity is expected through 2014, the Commission will continue itscurrent policy of encouraging generation adequacy within the region.With respect to transmission adequacy, the transmission system in the Mid-Atlantic Region hassufficient capacity to meet demand. Transmission expansions and upgrades are being planned forthe next five years to reinforce the bulk power grid.To summarize the relevant statistics in this report, electricity demand in Pennsylvania has grown atan average annual rate of 1.0 percent over the past 15 years. This is an aggregate figure for allsectors, including industrial, commercial and residential. Average total sales growth from 2004 to2009 was 0.1 percent. Aggregate sales in 2009 totaled 142,161 GWh, a 4.2 percent decrease fromthat of 2008. The current projections for 2009-14 show electricity demand growth at 1.4 percentannually. This includes a residential growth rate of 0.9 percent, a commercial growth rate of 1.9percent and an industrial growth rate of 1.6 percent.Regionally, generating resources are projected to be adequate for the next several years.ReliabilityFirst Corporation’s net internal demand forecast shows it increasing from 169,900 MWin 2009 to 193,100 MW in 2018 at an average annual growth rate of 1.4 percent. The need foradditional capacity resources ranges from 929 MW in 2015 to 7,160 MW in 2018 to maintain an1 66 Pa. C.S. § 524(a).2 52 Pa. Code §§ 57.141—57.154.3 66 Pa.C.S. § 524(b).4 66 Pa.C.S. §§ 2801—2812.Electric Power Outlook for Pennsylvania 2009-2014i