2010 Report - Pennsylvania Public Utility Commission

industrial sales declined at an average rate of 0.4 percent per year, due mainly to a 9.4 percent dropin 2009. Over the past five years, residential demand increased an average of 0.9 percent per yearand commercial at 1.0 percent; industrial sales decreased a total of 8.3 percent. Average annualtotal sales growth from 2004 to 2009 was 0.1 percent.The current aggregate five-year projection of growth in energy demand is 1.4 percent. Thisincludes a residential growth rate of 0.9 percent, a commercial rate of 1.9 percent and an industrialrate of 1.6 percent. See Figure 9, which depicts growth in retail energy demand by sector, in GWh.Figure 9 Pennsylvania aggregate energy demand (GWh)53,500HistoricForecasts51,50049,500CommercialResidential47,50045,50043,500Industrial41,50039,50037,5002000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014Over the past 15 years, the average aggregate non-coincident peak load for the major EDCsincreased 0.7 percent per year. From 2004 to 2009, the peak load increased by an average of 0.4percent per year. From 2008 to 2009, the aggregate peak load dropped 2,453 MW from 30,050MW to 27,597 MW, or an 8.2 percent decrease. The 2009 summer peaks occurred in August.The combined forecast of the EDCs’ peak load shows the load increasing from 27,597 MW in2009 to 29,550 MW in 2014 at an average annual growth rate of 1.4 percent. Actual peak loadsare weather adjusted to reflect normal weather conditions prior to applying forecastingmethodologies. Thus, the projected growth rates reflect the year-to-year fluctuations in energysales and peak load.Projections of energy demand and peak load reflect EDC compliance with the requirements of Act129 relating to energy efficiency and demand response options available for each customer class.See Figure 10.Electric Power Outlook for Pennsylvania 2009-2014 21