2010 Report - Pennsylvania Public Utility Commission

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ELECTRIC POWER OUTLOOKFOR PENNSYLVANIA2009–2014July 2010Published annually by:Pennsylvania Public Utility CommissionP.O. Box 3265Harrisburg, PA 17105-3265www.puc.state.pa.usPrepared by Blaine J. LoperBureau of Conservation, Economics and Energy PlanningWayne Williams, Ph.D., Director
Executive SummaryIntroductionSection 524(a) of the Public Utility Code (Code) requires jurisdictional electric distributioncompanies to submit to the Commission information concerning plans and projections for meetingfuture customer demand. 1 The Commission’s regulations set forth the form and content of suchinformation, which is to be filed on or before May 1 of each year. 2 Section 524(b) of the Coderequires that the Commission prepare an annual report summarizing and discussing the dataprovided, on or before Sept. 1. This report is to be submitted to the General Assembly, theGovernor, the Office of Consumer Advocate and each affected public utility. 3Since the enactment of the Electricity Generation Customer Choice and Competition Act, 4 theCommission’s regulations have been modified to reflect the competitive market. Thus, projectionsof generating capability and overall system reliability have been obtained from regionalassessments.OverviewThis report concludes that there is sufficient generation, transmission and distribution capacity toreasonably meet the needs of Pennsylvania’s electricity consumers for the near future. Additionalgenerating capacity will likely be needed by 2015.Regional generation adequacy and reserve margins of the Mid-Atlantic area have been maintained.While sufficient generation capacity is expected through 2014, the Commission will continue itscurrent policy of encouraging generation adequacy within the region.With respect to transmission adequacy, the transmission system in the Mid-Atlantic Region hassufficient capacity to meet demand. Transmission expansions and upgrades are being planned forthe next five years to reinforce the bulk power grid.To summarize the relevant statistics in this report, electricity demand in Pennsylvania has grown atan average annual rate of 1.0 percent over the past 15 years. This is an aggregate figure for allsectors, including industrial, commercial and residential. Average total sales growth from 2004 to2009 was 0.1 percent. Aggregate sales in 2009 totaled 142,161 GWh, a 4.2 percent decrease fromthat of 2008. The current projections for 2009-14 show electricity demand growth at 1.4 percentannually. This includes a residential growth rate of 0.9 percent, a commercial growth rate of 1.9percent and an industrial growth rate of 1.6 percent.Regionally, generating resources are projected to be adequate for the next several years.ReliabilityFirst Corporation’s net internal demand forecast shows it increasing from 169,900 MWin 2009 to 193,100 MW in 2018 at an average annual growth rate of 1.4 percent. The need foradditional capacity resources ranges from 929 MW in 2015 to 7,160 MW in 2018 to maintain an1 66 Pa. C.S. § 524(a).2 52 Pa. Code §§ 57.141—57.154.3 66 Pa.C.S. § 524(b).4 66 Pa.C.S. §§ 2801—2812.Electric Power Outlook for Pennsylvania 2009-2014i
Page 4 and 5: adequate reserve margin. Net capaci
Page 6 and 7: Section 3 - Regional ReliabilityReg
Page 8 and 9: Regional Reliability OrganizationsI
Page 10 and 11: Figure 1 NERC regionsNote: The high
Page 12 and 13: Figure 3 PJM RTO service territoryO
Page 14 and 15: Figure 5 Mid-Atlantic Area National
Page 16 and 17: Trans-Allegheny Interstate LineThe
Page 18 and 19: September 2009. A Recommended Decis
Page 20 and 21: suppliers or purchased power from t
Page 22 and 23: AECs are earned when a qualified fa
Page 24 and 25: Smart Meters and Time-of-Use RatesS
Page 26 and 27: Section 2 - Historic and Forecast D
Page 28 and 29: Figure 10 Pennsylvania aggregate no
Page 30 and 31: Most utilities have employed a comb
Page 32 and 33: Figure 13 Pennsylvania residential
Page 34 and 35: Figure 15 Pennsylvania industrial u
Page 36 and 37: Figure 17 Average deviation in peak
Page 38 and 39: Summary of EDC DataThe following se
Page 40 and 41: Figure 27 Duquesne Light Company pe
Page 42 and 43: 2000. Average annual use per reside
Page 44 and 45: Figure 32 Metropolitan Edison Compa
Page 46 and 47: Figure 33 Pennsylvania Electric Com
Page 48 and 49: percent and an industrial growth ra
Page 50 and 51: Figure 38 Pennsylvania Power Compan
Page 52 and 53:
Figure 39 PPL Electric Utilities Co
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PECO's 2009 summer peak load, occur
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Figure 44 PECO Energy Company avera
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commercial (24.3 percent). Average
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Figure 48 West Penn Power Company a
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Figure 50 UGI Utilities Inc. peak l
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sales, followed by residential with
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Figure 53 Wellsboro Electric Compan
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system and to make recommendations
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• Innovative resource planning an
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Figure 54 RFC 2009-2018 reserve mar
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The MISO reserve margin for existin
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PennsylvaniaThe Pennsylvania electr
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GWh more than they generated. Figur
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Susquehanna Steam Electric Station,
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Table A01 Duquesne Light CompanyTab
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Table A09 Pennsylvania Electric Com
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Table A17 PPL Electric Utilities Co
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Table A25 West Penn Power CompanyTa
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Status of Pennsylvania's Plant Addi
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Page 96 and 97:
Appendix C - Existing Generating Fa
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Pennsylvania's Existing Electric Ge
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Nuclear Power Plants in Pennsylvani
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2010 Report - Pennsylvania Public Utility Commission

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