SSP Brochure:Layout 1 - INSETA

for higher skills levels may, in the long term, affect the occupational structure of the industry – an increase in the number of professionalsand managers relative to other categories of staff.2.4 Expectations of employment growthThe Survey of Employment, Scarce and Critical Skills gauged employers’ expectations of employment growth over the next five years.Most (60.5%) organisations did not foresee changes in the number of people that they employed at the time of the survey. However, 34.1%expected an increase in total employment up to 2010 while 2.7% anticipated a decrease (2% did not respond to the question).Subsector differences are indicated in Table 2-3. While the majority of organisations in pension funding and reinsurance expected totalemployment to remain constant until 2010, more than half of the employers in life insurance, healthcare benefits, short-term and funeralinsurance anticipated increases in employment numbers. In contrast, 55.5% of the organisations in collective investments anticipateddecreases over the next five years in the number of people in their employ.Table 2.3 Employment growth expectations (2005-2010) by subsectorIncrease Same Decrease TotalSubsectorPercentage of organisationsCollective investments 44.5 55.5 100.0Life insurance 77.7 13.2 9.2 100.0Pension funding 5.7 94.3 100.0Healthcare benefits 65.2 30.5 4.4 100.0Short-term insurance 60.5 36.7 2.8 100.0Funeral insurance 52.6 47.4 100.0Reinsurance 87.0 13.0 100.0Brokers/Agents 33.3 61.7 2.0 100.0Activities auxiliary to insurance 35.9 55.1 6.8 100.0Total 34.1 60.5 2.7 100.0Source: Inseta, Survey of Employment, Scarce and Critical Skills, May 20062.5 Projections of future employmentIn order to obtain a sense of the number of positions that will have to be filled over the next five years, a simple labour demand modelwas developed. This model replaces the one presented in the SSP submitted to the DoL on 31 October 2005. In the absence of historical(time series) data the model was based on the cross-sectional data obtained in the Survey of Employment, Scarce and Critical Skills.Furthermore, the best estimates and assumptions regarding the factors that are likely to influence employment numbers in the sectorwere used throughout. The assumptions used are outlined below while the results of the model can be seen in Table 2-4.2.5.1 Estimates and assumptions madea) Current employmentThe model used the end of 2005 as base year. Employment at that time was estimated at 102 000. Estimates of employment ineach occupational category were based on the occupational distribution of employees reflected in the Survey of Employment, Scarceand Critical Skills. The main occupational categories of the OFO were used.b) New employmentThe industry organisations and companies that participated in the SSP development processes in 2004 and in 2005 agreed that itwas unlikely that employment in the sector will grow substantially over the next few years. As indicated in Section 2.4 above thissentiment was shared by most of the organisations that participated in the sector-wide survey conducted in 2005/2006.The relatively negative employment outlook is also based on the fact that the traditional market for insurance products is saturatedand that the population that falls in this market is not growing. The only possible expansion is into the low-income market. In theFSC, the industry has committed itself to servicing this market and to improving low-income earners’ access to insurance products.However, the successful expansion into this market depends not only on the development of suitable products but also on thedevelopment of suitable distribution channels. This includes the availability of black brokers who understand the needs, problems andpreferences of the non-traditional market and who comply with FAIS requirements.INSETA Sector Skills Plan - page 18