Poland as the destination for Shared Services Centers

Poland as the destination for Shared Services Centers 13
Since February 2009 the situation has began to stabilize and the exchange rate of the Zloty
against all major currencies is once again beginning to improve. The sharp devaluation of recent
months has nothing to do with the condition of Poland’s economy and forecasts in this domain
remain very favorable for the country. It was rather a result of currency speculations (including
currency options), as well as a steady withdrawal of capital from the market.
Table 2
Yearly average exchange rates in the period 2003 – 2010
Year 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
estimation
Exchange
rate PLN/EUR
(average)
Exchange
rate PLN/USD
(average)
2009
forecast
2010
forecast
4.00 [N] 4.53 [N] 4.03 [N] 3.90 [N] 3.78 [N] 3.52 [N] 4.30 [G] 4.00 [G]
3.89 [N] 3.65 [N] 3.23 [N] 3.10 [N] 2.77 [N] 2.41 [N] 3.30 [G] 3.00 [G]
Source: N – National Bank of Poland, G – The Gdansk Institute for Market Economics. Presented forecasts
were prepared in 2008, actual data at the 2009 and 2010 year-end may be different due to specific market
conditions
The exchange rate has to be considered in light of the current economic crisis. World Bank’s
report regarding the state of economies in 10 new EU Member States shows that the global
crisis has affected Poland’s economy by decreasing external demand for Polish exports, which
in turn leads to limited economic activity and lower FDI inflows. However, Poland is in the best
fiscal and financial condition among all new EU countries, and according to the World Bank its
GDP will nevertheless increase by 2% in 2009.
A recent report by the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) 4 also
recognizes Poland’s economic situation as the best in the Central and Eastern Europe region.
It states that the reaction of Poland’s economy to the crisis will be less sudden than in other
CEE countries. EBRD experts believe that Poland will be among the few countries, where
the crisis will only limit the economic growth rate.
A similar opinion has been expressed by experts from one of the world’s biggest banking
and financial institutions – HSBC. In their economic forecasts for 2009 5 HSBC analysts state
that Poland’s economy stands out from among other countries of the CEE region; it has solid
foundations protecting it from the effects of the global economic slowdown and allowing it
to retain good economic condition in 2009.
4 EBRD Transition Report 2008: Growth in transition – the report analyzes economic results and the pace of introducing reforms
in the countries of Central Europe, the former Soviet bloc, Mongolia and the Balkans.
5 Global Economics 2009 report analyzing all European economies.
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