Vol. 6 Num. 1 - GCG: Revista de GlobalizaciÃ³n, Competitividad y ...

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James GerberA great deal of attention has been placed on a variety of specific concerns, such as the businessclimate (World Bank, 2010a) and competitiveness (Porter, Schwab, and Sala-i-Martin,2007), policies for the poor and middle class (Birdsall, De la Torre, and Menezes, 2007), integrationof the informal economy (De Soto, 1989, 2000), inequality (De Ferranti, et. al, 2004),and on new generation reforms (Kuczynski and Williamson, 2003). This literature is informativebut does not provide many insights into the differences between Mexico and China.For example, the World Bank’s Doing Business Project (World Bank, 2010a) shows that thebusiness climate in Mexico is better than China 11 , and the World Income Inequality Databaseshows that inequality in China is not much less than in Mexico 12 . Mexico has a large informaleconomy, but China’s hukou system also creates a class of workers outside of normal laborand social protections.101An explanation for the differences in Mexican and Chinese growth requires a comparativeperspective and consideration of a number of omitted factors. Specifically, China has twoadvantages that Mexico does not. One, for purposes of stimulating economic growth, it islocated in a better “neighborhood”. The complement of countries surrounding China give ita more diversified set of possibilities, plus they are connected by water rather than land borders.Consequently, it is less vulnerable to fluctuations in one country, it has a more flexibleset of supply chains, it has lower transportation costs, and it avoids the chaos created bydrug usage, drug culture, drug trade, and drug suppression. Two, China’s system of decentralizedeconomic planning and decision making provides incentives for economic growth atthe local level and is able to respond flexibly to new opportunities such as changes in worlddemand, the introduction of new technologies, and a growing world economy.4.1. China is located in a better neighborhoodChina is surrounded by the High Performance Asian Economies of Korea, Taiwan, Japan,Hong Kong, Malaysia, Singapore, Thailand, and Indonesia. It is connected to these countriesby water transport and it can build ports along its coasts without needing to negotiate withanother sovereign power. Mexico is surrounded by Central America, the Caribbean, and theUnited States. Effectively it has one trading partner, the US, and the bulk of its trade is landbased through ports of entry that are negotiated bilaterally with 30 or more participants (SanDiego Association of Governments, 2005) 13 . Furthermore, the location of Mexican production11. The World Bank’s Doing Business Project (World Bank, 2010a) measures the ease of doing business in 183 nations. They rank countries inten different dimensions (starting a business, dealing with construction permits, employing workers, registering property, getting credit, protectinginvestors, paying taxes, trading across borders, enforcing contracts, closing a business), each with 3 to 5 indicators. In effect, it is a business scorecardon the institutional environment of national and sub-national economies. The Doing Business 2010 report ranks Mexico 51 st out of 183 economiesand China 89 th . This probably understates the differences since each country’s ranking is based on conditions in a single place (commercial center)and Mexico’s rankings are for Mexico, DF, while China’s are for Shanghai. Sub-national reports for Mexico and China show that Mexico, DF,ranks dead last out of 32 states and the federal district, while Shanghai ranks 5 th out of 30 of China’s largest cities. Consequently, Mexico’s worstmajor commercial center ranks higher than China’s 5 th best (51 st versus 89 th among all nations) on the World Bank’s ease of doing business scale.12. The World Income Inequality Database has measures of the gini coefficient for both China and Mexico in 2004. Mexico’s is given as 49.9, basedon measures of income; China’s is 46.9 based on measures of consumption (which tend to be more equal in distribution than income). China’smeasure for 2003 based on income is 44.9, using a different survey methodology. There are differences but not too great (UNU-WIDER, 2010).13. The San Diego Association of Governments (SANDAG, 2005) recently completed a study for a new border crossing between San Diego andTijuana. They identified seven local agencies in the US and four in Mexico, four state agencies in the US and two in Mexico, and seven federalagencies in the US and six in Mexico, for a total of 18 US and 12 Mexican agencies that must participate in the negotiations for a new land-basedborder crossing.GCG GEORGETOWN UNIVERSITY - UNIVERSIA ENERO-ABRIL 2012 VOL. 6 NUM. 1 ISSN: 1988-7116pp: 91-106
Why isn’t Mexico on China’s Growth Path?102 inside the country is less advantageous than China’s recent development of manufacturingand export capacity at the water’s edge. This important difference is reflected in China’smuch lower costs for inland transportation and handling of its exported merchandise. Thecost for these processes for a 20-foot, full container, weighing 10 tons and valued at $20,000,is $95 in China and $900 in Mexico (World Bank, 2010a).China is located in a part of the world that has experienced some of the fastest growth ratesin the world, while Mexico’s location is dominated by the United States, which has grownrelatively slower. Table 2 shows the growth rates of an admittedly arbitrary set of neighboringcountries for China and Mexico. The East Asian sample is heavily weighted by Japan’s largepopulation and its lost decade of the 1990s, which has continued into the 2000s. Other thanJapan (which makes up 26 percent of the population-weighted average growth rate), noother country in the East Asian sample grew at a rate less than 4.4 percent per year. In theAmericas, only Peru and Chile grew faster than 4.4 percent.Table 2: Average Annual Growth of GDP (PPP), 1990-2008East Asia 1990-2008 The Americas 1990-2008Hong Kong 4.46 Argentina 4.11Indonesia 4.47 Brazil 2.94Japan 1.24 Canada 2.61Malaysia 5.91 Chile 5.27Singapore 6.08 Colombia 3.24South Korea 5.19 Peru 4.91Taiwan 4.85 United States 2.73Thailand 4.48 Venezuela 3.08Population weighted average 3.80 Population weighted average 3.06Source: Maddison (2010).Another characteristic of location is that China exports to a more diversified set of tradingpartners. Its top trading partner (the European Union) took 20.5 percent of its exports in2007, while Mexico’s top partner (the US) took 80.3 percent of its exports. The top 5 forChina receive 64.8 percent of its exports, while Mexico’s top 5 receive 90.8 percent (WorldTrade Organization, 2010). China’s top recipients of exports are the EU and the US, butit also trades extensively with other East Asian economies, such as South Korea, Japan,and Taiwan, among others, while Mexico primarily exports to the US, Canada, the EU, andcountries in the Americas. Hence, the differences in growth rates matter.Proximity to the US has advantages since it is the largest importer of goods in the world.However, it causes the Mexican economy to be vulnerable to macroeconomic conditions inone country. Furthermore, Mexico’s trade with the US is largely over land rather than on water,and it is exceedingly complicated to negotiate new infrastructure investment in a bi-nationalenvironment in which the US is concerned about terrorism, drug flows, and undocumentedmigrants. Fears that easier trade flows bring “bads” as well as goods causes trade betweenthe US and Mexico to be politicized to an extraordinary degree, as evidenced by the failureGCG GEORGETOWN UNIVERSITY - UNIVERSIA ENERO-ABRIL 2012 VOL. 6 NUM. 1 ISSN: 1988-7116pp: 91-106
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CARTA DEL EDITOR IN CHIEFEditor in
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StaffDe la Torre, José, Dean, Chap
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Staff2. MULTINACIONALES, INVERSIÓN
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SELECCIÓN PROCEDURE PROCEDIMENTOIN
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Instrucciones para Autores y Proced
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INDEXACIÓN INDEXING INDEXAÇÃOInd
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Economic Relationships between Lati
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Miguel A. MontoyaThe rest of the pa
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International Joint Ventures among
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36Japanese Foreign Direct Investmen
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Japanese Foreign Direct Investment
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Page 55 and 56: 561. IntroductionClusters and indus
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Page 132 and 133: Zhu HongboIn fact, some Latin Ameri
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Page 136 and 137: 1. Introduction137China’s emergen
Page 138 and 139: Edy WongTable One: Compositions of
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Page 142 and 143: Edy Wongon ‘new economic geograph
Page 144 and 145: Edy WongIn today’s global market,
Page 146 and 147: Edy Wongdemand-side factors in the
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Edy Wongindustry. Second, value cha
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Edy Wongconsumption of Western luxu
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Edy WongReferences155Child, J.; Rod
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