The impact of demographic change on local and regional government
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The impact of demographic change on local and regional government

The impact of demographic change on local and regional government The impact of demographic change on local and regional government

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11.07.2015 Views

1 Introduction >2 Demographic Changes in Europe > 3 Demographic Change in Four Policy fields > 4 Summary and Conclusion> 5 Further Inquiry and Research Questions > 6 ong>Theong> Council ong>ofong> European Municipalities and Regions in a nutshellIn July 2005, a ministerial advisory board for old age issueswas also set up. In addition to the National Programme ong>ofong>Preparation for Ageing, the Czech Government adopted the“National Action Plan on Social Inclusion 2004-2006 (19) ”(in cooperation with the EU Commission). ong>Theong> plan addressesthe problems ong>ofong> poverty and social exclusion. It draws attentionto the issue ong>ofong> social inclusion in other important areaslike employment, social protection, health care, education,housing and the prevention ong>ofong> socially negative phenomena.Demographic situation in briefFinlandong>Theong> population ong>ofong> Finland was about 5.2 million in 2005.ong>Theong> reproduction rate has declined over the past 10 years from1.84 to 1.71, which is still one ong>ofong> the highest in EU butnevertheless a growing cause ong>ofong> concern (Statistics Finland2003). ong>Theong> median age is now at about 41, life expectancy isat the EU15 average ong>ofong> about 78, for males nearly 75, forfemales about 82 (20) .Finland has always been a country ong>ofong>emigration, there was nearly no immigration until themid-1980s. Since the 1990s, immigration has increased.Nevertheless the proportion ong>ofong> foreigners – 2% ong>ofong> thepopulation – is still very small compared to other EU memberstates. ong>Theong> most important group ong>ofong> immigrants are Russians.Since 1999, Finland has had integration legislation that imposesintegrative measures on immigrants (21). ong>Theong> objective is tokeep immigration to a low level.In Finland the contrast is enormous between urban/metropolitanand rural regions like the Helsinki metropolitan area andthe sparsely populated communities in the northern andeastern parts ong>ofong> the country. Peripheral communities strugglefor survival, facing a situation where population decline hascreated financial problems for local authorities due tooversized services and tight funding. Metropolitan areas,especially suburban communities, face the opposite situation,namely a growth in population resulting in a need to increasecapacity in educational and social services. (22)Demography-related national policiesIn Finland, as in the other Nordic countries, society traditionallyong>ofong>fers a variety ong>ofong> services to support children and families (23) .Many services are provided by local authorities because theyhave statutory responsibility for social, health and educationalservices. According to a family barometer set up by the FinnishPopulation League, people, who have completed their studiesand have a steady job are willing to have an average 2.4children in the family. Respondents gave credit to the day caresystems and the housing facilities provided by society. In orderto promote the family, the relevant services are free and thusaffordable for all. This is considered one ong>ofong> the basic featuresin “Nordic welfare society”.Voluntary welfare has a long tradition in Finland, and privateorganizations have started many programmes that have laterbeen established as public social services, especially forchildren and families. Organizations still play a major role insupplementing ong>ofong>ficial welfare for minors, old people andpeople with disabilities. Most ong>ofong> the services provided byprivate associations are organized by salaried employees.Organizations get a reasonable proportion ong>ofong> their fundingfrom public resources.ong>Theong> Finnish National Programme for Ageing Workers(FNPAW) is an integrated policy programme to promote theemployability ong>ofong> older workers in Western Europe. ong>Theong> maingoal ong>ofong> the FNPAW is to promote the employability ong>ofong> the over45 age group, to reduce exclusion and premature retirement.ong>Theong> Ministry ong>ofong> Social Affairs and Health, the Ministry ong>ofong>Labour and the Ministry ong>ofong> Education, in cooperation withmajor labour market organizations, are responsible for itsimplementation. Regional pilot training projects areorganized, to meet the need to update skills due to advancesin information technology and to develop innovative methodsfor training older workers. Specific measures to preventdiscrimination ong>ofong> older workers are also promoted. (24)(19) Ministry ong>ofong> Labour and Social Affairs, National Action Plan on Social Inclusion 2004-2006, Czech Republic, 2004 (http://europa.eu.int/comm/employment_social/soc-prot/soc-incl/nap_incl_2004_cz_en_version.pdf).(20) ong>Theong> World Factbook, Czech Republic (http://www.cia.gov/cia/publications/factbook/geos/ez.html#People).(21) Bundeszentrale für politische Bildung, Länderprong>ofong>il Finnland (http://www.migration-info.de/migration_und_bevoelkerung/artikel/030804.htm).(22) Sandberg, Siv, Local government in Finland, (Åbo Akademi University, Finland), p. 27 (http://www.abo.fi/fak/esf/lindman/ong>ofong>fentlig_forvaltning/word/Local%20government%20in%20Finland%20-%20Siv%20Sandberg.doc).(23) Taskinen, Sirpa, General Monitoring Report 2004 Finland, Families in Finland: Policies, challenges and opportunities (http://www.europa.eu.int/comm/employment_social/eoss/downloads/gm_04_Finland.pdf).(24) Ministry ong>ofong> Labour & Institute ong>ofong> Occupational Health, Ageing workers and changing working life, Helsinki, 1999.(25) ong>Theong> "middle variant" is based on the following assumptions: constant birth rate ong>ofong> an average 1.4 children per woman, increase in the life expectancy ong>ofong> a new-born boy to 81.1 years and ong>ofong> a new-born girlto 86.6 years by 2050, and an annual net immigration ong>ofong> about 200,000 persons.

1 Introduction >2 Demographic Changes in Europe > 3 Demographic Change in Four Policy fields > 4 Summary and Conclusion> 5 Further Inquiry and Research Questions > 6 ong>Theong> Council ong>ofong> European Municipalities and Regions in a nutshellDemographic situation in briefGermanyong>Theong> German population is shrinking and ageing and willcontinue to do so in the future. According to the FederalStatistical Office, Germany has a current population ong>ofong> about82 million. According to the population projection "middlevariant (25) ", the figure will, after a slight rise to 83 million, startdeclining from 2013 to reach the 1963 level (slightly morethan 75 million) by 2050. On the assumption that the birth ratein Germany will continue to be low, the current annual rate ong>ofong>about 730,000 will fall to approximately 560,000 by 2050.While 17 million people are now under 20 (21%), only 12million (16%) will be in this age group in 2050. ong>Theong> 60s andover age group will be more than twice as big (28 million,37%). Besides, 9.1 million people, i.e. 12% ong>ofong> the population(2001: 3.2 million, 3.9%), will be 80 years or older in 2050.ong>Theong> high migration balance ong>ofong> the 1990s will not persist, inspite ong>ofong> EU enlargement. ong>Theong> positive migration balance has song>ofong>ar exceeded and masked population decline. ong>Theong> totalpopulation is about stable (in 2005 there was a decline ong>ofong>60,000). This will not continue. Probably between 2010and 2020 the population ong>ofong> Germany will begin to fallcontinuously. Furthermore, owing to the net gain ininternational migration and the composition ong>ofong> immigrationand emigration, society is becoming increasingly differentiatedwith regard to regional and ethnic origin, as well as culturaland religious background. In 2004 the foreign population wasabout 8.8% ong>ofong> the total (26) .A special phenomenon in Germany is extensive andconcentrated intra-national migration from East to West (27) .After net migration losses in East Germany had initially fallenafter unification, they began to rise again from 1997, owing toinadequate economic development in the East. To date, thephenomenon ong>ofong> shrinking cities is most advanced in EastGermany, and politicians as well as society as a whole aremostly concerned with developments in that part ong>ofong> thecountry. Nevertheless, many regions in West Germany arealso currently affected (e.g. the Ruhr District) or will sufferconsiderable decline ong>ofong> population in the years to come. Apartfrom immigration, this is the most unpredictable trend.Demography-related national policiesong>Theong> “Alliance for the Family” initiative seeks to initiate along-term economic and family policy (28) .This policy will beupheld by the new government that came to power inNovember 2005. ong>Theong> alliance is based on consensus that (29) :• in the near future and in the long run Germany will needhigher birth rates to counteract the negative economic andsocial side effects ong>ofong> population decline,• human capital is an important factor ong>ofong> economic success inGermany, so the economy needs highly skilled workers anda higher female employment rate,• in order to increase the quality ong>ofong> human capital, childrenneed support and education particularly in their early years.ong>Theong> partners in the alliance agreed on the need to create afamily-friendly labour and employment culture, encompassingcorporate culture, labour force organisation, working hours,human resources development and family-related services.ong>Theong> alliance is composed ong>ofong> a range ong>ofong> local actors, such asenterprises, politicians and family organisations. Its activitiesinclude a competition for family-friendly activities incompanies under the title 'Success Factor Family'.Given the ong>demographicong> facts, the positive and negativeimplications ong>ofong> ageing are being rethought. Ageing is nolonger being discussed exclusively as a cost factor but alsowith respect to its potential for the economy, employment andsociety. Expert groups, enterprises, universities “ong>ofong> the ThirdAge” have started to develop concepts that give elderlypeople an important role in economic and social processes.ong>Theong> 5th National Report on the Situation ong>ofong> the Elderly inGermany (“Altenbericht”) drawn up by an expert group(forthcoming in late spring 2006) is entitled “Economic andSocial Potentials ong>ofong> an Ageing Society”.After many years ong>ofong> politically motivated denial that Germany isan immigration country, the former Federal government finallyespoused integration policy. Under “nationality law”(Staatsbürgerschaftsrecht) there are now clear requirements forforeigners to attain German citizenship. One important measureto facilitate the integration ong>ofong> non-Germans into society isthe assessment ong>ofong> German language skills. In Germany theimmigrant unemployment rate is about 20%, double theaverage figure for Germans. Reasons are the economic situationin combination with a high rate ong>ofong> blue-collar workers, the lowereducation level, but also poor language skills (30) .(26) German Federal Statistical Office (http://www.statistik-portal.de/Statistik-Portal/en/en_jb01_jahrtab2.asp).(27) Mäding, Heinrich, Demographic Change and Local Government Finance - Trends and Expectations, In: Deutsche Zeitschrift für Kommunalwissenschaften, Vol. 44 (2004)‚ No.1.(28) Bien, Walter, General Monitoring Report 2004 Germany, Families in Germany: Policies, challenges and opportunities(http://www.europa.eu.int/comm/employment_social/eoss/downloads/gm_04_Germany.pdf).(29) Cf. Bundesministerium für Familie, Senioren, Frauen und Jugend (BMFSFJ) (ed.), Perspektive für eine nachhaltige Familienpolitik, Berlin 2005. Bundesministerium für Familie, Senioren, Frauen und Jugend(BMFSFJ) (ed.), Potenziale erschließen – Familienatlas 2005, Berlin 2005. Bundesministerium für Familie, Senioren, Frauen und Jugend (BMFSFJ) (ed.), Nachhaltige Familienpolitik im Interesse einer aktivenBevölkerungsentwicklung, Berlin 2003.(30) Deutsche Bank Research, Ist die Zuwanderung Retter in der Not? (http://www.dbresearch.com/servlet/reweb2.ReWEB?rwkey=u1348558).67

1 Introducti<strong>on</strong> >2 Demographic Changes in Europe > 3 Demographic Change in Four Policy fields > 4 Summary <strong>and</strong> C<strong>on</strong>clusi<strong>on</strong>> 5 Further Inquiry <strong>and</strong> Research Questi<strong>on</strong>s > 6 <str<strong>on</strong>g>The</str<strong>on</strong>g> Council <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> European Municipalities <strong>and</strong> Regi<strong>on</strong>s in a nutshellDemographic situati<strong>on</strong> in briefGermany<str<strong>on</strong>g>The</str<strong>on</strong>g> German populati<strong>on</strong> is shrinking <strong>and</strong> ageing <strong>and</strong> willc<strong>on</strong>tinue to do so in the future. According to the FederalStatistical Office, Germany has a current populati<strong>on</strong> <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> about82 milli<strong>on</strong>. According to the populati<strong>on</strong> projecti<strong>on</strong> "middlevariant (25) ", the figure will, after a slight rise to 83 milli<strong>on</strong>, startdeclining from 2013 to reach the 1963 level (slightly morethan 75 milli<strong>on</strong>) by 2050. On the assumpti<strong>on</strong> that the birth ratein Germany will c<strong>on</strong>tinue to be low, the current annual rate <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g>about 730,000 will fall to approximately 560,000 by 2050.While 17 milli<strong>on</strong> people are now under 20 (21%), <strong>on</strong>ly 12milli<strong>on</strong> (16%) will be in this age group in 2050. <str<strong>on</strong>g>The</str<strong>on</strong>g> 60s <strong>and</strong>over age group will be more than twice as big (28 milli<strong>on</strong>,37%). Besides, 9.1 milli<strong>on</strong> people, i.e. 12% <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> the populati<strong>on</strong>(2001: 3.2 milli<strong>on</strong>, 3.9%), will be 80 years or older in 2050.<str<strong>on</strong>g>The</str<strong>on</strong>g> high migrati<strong>on</strong> balance <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> the 1990s will not persist, inspite <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> EU enlargement. <str<strong>on</strong>g>The</str<strong>on</strong>g> positive migrati<strong>on</strong> balance has s<str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g>ar exceeded <strong>and</strong> masked populati<strong>on</strong> decline. <str<strong>on</strong>g>The</str<strong>on</strong>g> totalpopulati<strong>on</strong> is about stable (in 2005 there was a decline <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g>60,000). This will not c<strong>on</strong>tinue. Probably between 2010<strong>and</strong> 2020 the populati<strong>on</strong> <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Germany will begin to fallc<strong>on</strong>tinuously. Furthermore, owing to the net gain ininternati<strong>on</strong>al migrati<strong>on</strong> <strong>and</strong> the compositi<strong>on</strong> <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> immigrati<strong>on</strong><strong>and</strong> emigrati<strong>on</strong>, society is becoming increasingly differentiatedwith regard to regi<strong>on</strong>al <strong>and</strong> ethnic origin, as well as cultural<strong>and</strong> religious background. In 2004 the foreign populati<strong>on</strong> wasabout 8.8% <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> the total (26) .A special phenomen<strong>on</strong> in Germany is extensive <strong>and</strong>c<strong>on</strong>centrated intra-nati<strong>on</strong>al migrati<strong>on</strong> from East to West (27) .After net migrati<strong>on</strong> losses in East Germany had initially fallenafter unificati<strong>on</strong>, they began to rise again from 1997, owing toinadequate ec<strong>on</strong>omic development in the East. To date, thephenomen<strong>on</strong> <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> shrinking cities is most advanced in EastGermany, <strong>and</strong> politicians as well as society as a whole aremostly c<strong>on</strong>cerned with developments in that part <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> thecountry. Nevertheless, many regi<strong>on</strong>s in West Germany arealso currently affected (e.g. the Ruhr District) or will sufferc<strong>on</strong>siderable decline <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> populati<strong>on</strong> in the years to come. Apartfrom immigrati<strong>on</strong>, this is the most unpredictable trend.Demography-related nati<strong>on</strong>al policies<str<strong>on</strong>g>The</str<strong>on</strong>g> “Alliance for the Family” initiative seeks to initiate al<strong>on</strong>g-term ec<strong>on</strong>omic <strong>and</strong> family policy (28) .This policy will beupheld by the new <strong>government</strong> that came to power inNovember 2005. <str<strong>on</strong>g>The</str<strong>on</strong>g> alliance is based <strong>on</strong> c<strong>on</strong>sensus that (29) :• in the near future <strong>and</strong> in the l<strong>on</strong>g run Germany will needhigher birth rates to counteract the negative ec<strong>on</strong>omic <strong>and</strong>social side effects <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> populati<strong>on</strong> decline,• human capital is an important factor <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> ec<strong>on</strong>omic success inGermany, so the ec<strong>on</strong>omy needs highly skilled workers <strong>and</strong>a higher female employment rate,• in order to increase the quality <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> human capital, childrenneed support <strong>and</strong> educati<strong>on</strong> particularly in their early years.<str<strong>on</strong>g>The</str<strong>on</strong>g> partners in the alliance agreed <strong>on</strong> the need to create afamily-friendly labour <strong>and</strong> employment culture, encompassingcorporate culture, labour force organisati<strong>on</strong>, working hours,human resources development <strong>and</strong> family-related services.<str<strong>on</strong>g>The</str<strong>on</strong>g> alliance is composed <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> a range <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> <strong>local</strong> actors, such asenterprises, politicians <strong>and</strong> family organisati<strong>on</strong>s. Its activitiesinclude a competiti<strong>on</strong> for family-friendly activities incompanies under the title 'Success Factor Family'.Given the <str<strong>on</strong>g>demographic</str<strong>on</strong>g> facts, the positive <strong>and</strong> negativeimplicati<strong>on</strong>s <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> ageing are being rethought. Ageing is nol<strong>on</strong>ger being discussed exclusively as a cost factor but alsowith respect to its potential for the ec<strong>on</strong>omy, employment <strong>and</strong>society. Expert groups, enterprises, universities “<str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> the ThirdAge” have started to develop c<strong>on</strong>cepts that give elderlypeople an important role in ec<strong>on</strong>omic <strong>and</strong> social processes.<str<strong>on</strong>g>The</str<strong>on</strong>g> 5th Nati<strong>on</strong>al Report <strong>on</strong> the Situati<strong>on</strong> <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> the Elderly inGermany (“Altenbericht”) drawn up by an expert group(forthcoming in late spring 2006) is entitled “Ec<strong>on</strong>omic <strong>and</strong>Social Potentials <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> an Ageing Society”.After many years <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> politically motivated denial that Germany isan immigrati<strong>on</strong> country, the former Federal <strong>government</strong> finallyespoused integrati<strong>on</strong> policy. Under “nati<strong>on</strong>ality law”(Staatsbürgerschaftsrecht) there are now clear requirements forforeigners to attain German citizenship. One important measureto facilitate the integrati<strong>on</strong> <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> n<strong>on</strong>-Germans into society isthe assessment <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> German language skills. In Germany theimmigrant unemployment rate is about 20%, double theaverage figure for Germans. Reas<strong>on</strong>s are the ec<strong>on</strong>omic situati<strong>on</strong>in combinati<strong>on</strong> with a high rate <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> blue-collar workers, the lowereducati<strong>on</strong> level, but also poor language skills (30) .(26) German Federal Statistical Office (http://www.statistik-portal.de/Statistik-Portal/en/en_jb01_jahrtab2.asp).(27) Mäding, Heinrich, Demographic Change <strong>and</strong> Local Government Finance - Trends <strong>and</strong> Expectati<strong>on</strong>s, In: Deutsche Zeitschrift für Kommunalwissenschaften, Vol. 44 (2004)‚ No.1.(28) Bien, Walter, General M<strong>on</strong>itoring Report 2004 Germany, Families in Germany: Policies, challenges <strong>and</strong> opportunities(http://www.europa.eu.int/comm/employment_social/eoss/downloads/gm_04_Germany.pdf).(29) Cf. Bundesministerium für Familie, Senioren, Frauen und Jugend (BMFSFJ) (ed.), Perspektive für eine nachhaltige Familienpolitik, Berlin 2005. Bundesministerium für Familie, Senioren, Frauen und Jugend(BMFSFJ) (ed.), Potenziale erschließen – Familienatlas 2005, Berlin 2005. Bundesministerium für Familie, Senioren, Frauen und Jugend (BMFSFJ) (ed.), Nachhaltige Familienpolitik im Interesse einer aktivenBevölkerungsentwicklung, Berlin 2003.(30) Deutsche Bank Research, Ist die Zuw<strong>and</strong>erung Retter in der Not? (http://www.dbresearch.com/servlet/reweb2.ReWEB?rwkey=u1348558).67

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