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The impact of demographic change on local and regional government

The impact of demographic change on local and regional government

The impact of demographic change on local and regional government

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[ 4Summary<strong>and</strong> C<strong>on</strong>clusi<strong>on</strong> ]All European countries are facing challenges engendered by<str<strong>on</strong>g>demographic</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>change</str<strong>on</strong>g>. <str<strong>on</strong>g>The</str<strong>on</strong>g>se developments have far-reaching,complex c<strong>on</strong>sequences for <strong>local</strong> <strong>and</strong> regi<strong>on</strong>al <strong>government</strong>.<str<strong>on</strong>g>The</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>impact</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>demographic</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>change</str<strong>on</strong>g>s differs from city to city<strong>and</strong> from regi<strong>on</strong> to regi<strong>on</strong>. But they influence nearly everysphere <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> life <strong>and</strong> affect almost every policy field. Demographic<str<strong>on</strong>g>change</str<strong>on</strong>g> is a topic addressed at the European level, inparticular by instituti<strong>on</strong>s like the EU Commissi<strong>on</strong> <strong>and</strong> Eurostat(Statistical Office <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> the European Communities). In March2005, the Commissi<strong>on</strong> <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> the European Communitiespublished a Green paper “C<strong>on</strong>fr<strong>on</strong>ting <str<strong>on</strong>g>demographic</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>change</str<strong>on</strong>g>:a new solidarity between the generati<strong>on</strong>s”. In this paper thephenomena <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>demographic</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>change</str<strong>on</strong>g> (low birth rate, decline <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g>populati<strong>on</strong>, ageing/l<strong>on</strong>gevity, migrati<strong>on</strong>) are discussed withregard to inter-generati<strong>on</strong>al solidarity 55) . Eurostat data (56) showthat all European countries are affected by <str<strong>on</strong>g>demographic</str<strong>on</strong>g><str<strong>on</strong>g>change</str<strong>on</strong>g>, to a varying extent <strong>and</strong> in differing time horiz<strong>on</strong>s.Demographic <str<strong>on</strong>g>change</str<strong>on</strong>g> <strong>and</strong> the discussi<strong>on</strong> <strong>on</strong> how to deal withit is not <strong>on</strong>ly a complex issue but also a politically <strong>and</strong>emoti<strong>on</strong>ally highly charged subject. Although scientists havebeen providing <str<strong>on</strong>g>demographic</str<strong>on</strong>g> data for many years, it has <strong>on</strong>lyrecently surfaced in public political debate – probably owingto the initially negative c<strong>on</strong>notati<strong>on</strong>s <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> shrinkage <strong>and</strong> ageing.<str<strong>on</strong>g>The</str<strong>on</strong>g> political debate <strong>on</strong> ageing focuses more <strong>on</strong> its costs for thesocial insurance system rather than <strong>on</strong> its social <strong>and</strong> evenec<strong>on</strong>omic potentials. This is the case in all the countries understudy.Shrinkage, in c<strong>on</strong>trast, seems to be a topic particularly relevantin eastern Germany. Of course, the shrinking <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> cities is not atotally new phenomen<strong>on</strong> <strong>and</strong> in the countries under study isoccurring in a number <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> regi<strong>on</strong>s. But in East Germany, anatural decline <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> populati<strong>on</strong> (collapse <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> the fertility rate afterGerman unificati<strong>on</strong>) is compounded by a sustained <strong>and</strong>extensive outmigrati<strong>on</strong> to West Germany. Some cities have lostmore than 20 to 25% <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> inhabitants since 1990.On the <strong>local</strong> <strong>and</strong> regi<strong>on</strong>al <strong>government</strong> levels, most <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> theprojects documented are in field <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> social services, especiallyinfrastructure. Local authorities are attempting to adapt thesocial (<strong>and</strong> technical) infrastructure to changing dem<strong>and</strong> interms <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> the quality <strong>and</strong> extent <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> services. Many projectshave already been implemented. In other areas, too, <strong>local</strong>authorities have started developing strategies for h<strong>and</strong>ling<str<strong>on</strong>g>demographic</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>change</str<strong>on</strong>g>, covering a broad range <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> initiatives.But very few <strong>local</strong> authorities are proceeding systematicallyby adopting an integrative strategic approach taking account<str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> all the different <strong>and</strong> interlocking elements <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>demographic</str<strong>on</strong>g><str<strong>on</strong>g>change</str<strong>on</strong>g>. Much remains for <strong>local</strong> <strong>and</strong> regi<strong>on</strong>al authorities todo, <strong>and</strong> it will become increasingly urgent to develop <strong>local</strong><strong>and</strong> regi<strong>on</strong>al strategies adapted to the specific <strong>local</strong> situati<strong>on</strong>.(55) Commissi<strong>on</strong> <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> the European Communities, Green paper “c<strong>on</strong>fr<strong>on</strong>ting <str<strong>on</strong>g>demographic</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>change</str<strong>on</strong>g>: a new solidarity between the generati<strong>on</strong>s”, COM (2005) 94 final, Brussels, 16.3.2005.(56) Eurostat, news release Nr. 48/2005 <strong>and</strong> Nr. 136/2005.

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