1 Introducti<strong>on</strong> >2 Demographic Changes in Europe > 3 Demographic Change in Four Policy fields > 4 Summary <strong>and</strong> C<strong>on</strong>clusi<strong>on</strong>> 5 Further Inquiry <strong>and</strong> Research Questi<strong>on</strong>s > 6 <str<strong>on</strong>g>The</str<strong>on</strong>g> Council <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> European Municipalities <strong>and</strong> Regi<strong>on</strong>s in a nutshelldecreasing numbers <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> pupils for all citizens <strong>and</strong> tourists.It is an integrative c<strong>on</strong>cept, all means <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> public transport areincluded, additi<strong>on</strong>al costs will be met by savings in otherfields. <str<strong>on</strong>g>The</str<strong>on</strong>g> project is financed by the Lausitz-Spreewald Regi<strong>on</strong>,the Federal Ministry <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Transport <strong>and</strong> Spatial Planning, the IBAFuerst-Pueckler-L<strong>and</strong> (Internati<strong>on</strong>al Exhibiti<strong>on</strong> <strong>on</strong> Planning<strong>and</strong> Building) <strong>and</strong> by EU Interreg IIIb.<str<strong>on</strong>g>The</str<strong>on</strong>g> “Marbella Initiative” (pop. 116,000, Andalusia) focuses <strong>on</strong>the fact that the Costa del Sol is <strong>on</strong>e <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> the largest <strong>and</strong> mostimportant destinati<strong>on</strong>s in Europe for foreign retirementmigrants. <str<strong>on</strong>g>The</str<strong>on</strong>g> new town planning ordinance being drawn upby the Marbella municipality will allocate l<strong>and</strong> for a seniorcitizens’ residence to be built in c<strong>on</strong>juncti<strong>on</strong> with the regi<strong>on</strong>al<strong>government</strong>'s social services ministry. In additi<strong>on</strong>, three newsenior centres, four apartment complexes <strong>and</strong> two day carecentres for the infirm <strong>and</strong> their families are planned.Ostrava (pop. 309,000, North Moravia, Czech Republic) isimplementing a municipal transport policy taking into accountthe particular needs <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> elderly people. Passengers over 70 usepublic transport without charge, <strong>and</strong> busses as well as busstops are supposed to be barrier free.3.3 EMPLOYMENT AND SOCIAL INCLUSIONRelati<strong>on</strong>ship between Employment/Social Inclusi<strong>on</strong><strong>and</strong> Demography<str<strong>on</strong>g>The</str<strong>on</strong>g>re is a close relati<strong>on</strong>ship between employment/socialinclusi<strong>on</strong> <strong>and</strong> demography. Despite the differences betweenEU member states, they have much in comm<strong>on</strong> in the futuredevelopment <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> employment. Greater differences are apparentin the new member states, where migrati<strong>on</strong> behaviour isexpected to differ from EU15.Employment growth in the EU remains rather limited, <strong>and</strong> hasnow been low for several years in a row (47) . Growth such as itishas been driven by c<strong>on</strong>tinued expansi<strong>on</strong> <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> employment inthe services sector. More flexible types <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> employment are alsoc<strong>on</strong>tinuing to increase. As a result, the average employmentrate for the EU grew by 0.4% to 63.3% in 2004, an improvementover 2002 <strong>and</strong> 2003 when total employment hardly roseat all. <str<strong>on</strong>g>The</str<strong>on</strong>g> rise in the employment rate was driven particularlyby the <strong>on</strong>going increase in female employment, but also by ac<strong>on</strong>tinued str<strong>on</strong>g rise in employment for older people (aged55-64). <str<strong>on</strong>g>The</str<strong>on</strong>g> unemployment rate remained un<str<strong>on</strong>g>change</str<strong>on</strong>g>d, <strong>and</strong>the l<strong>on</strong>g-term rate even increased slightly to 4.1% (48) .Compared to the Lisb<strong>on</strong> <strong>and</strong> Stockholm objectives (<strong>and</strong> there-launch <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> the Lisb<strong>on</strong> Strategy in 2005), rates remain belowthe target for 2010 <strong>and</strong>, because <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> the weak labour marketperformance in Europe, there will be <strong>on</strong>ly slow progress in thefuture.Nevertheless, employment growth has been favourable inthe majority <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> EU states. Only four countries experiencednegative annual growth, most notably the Netherl<strong>and</strong>s.In c<strong>on</strong>trast, seven countries boosted employment by over 1%,with particularly str<strong>on</strong>g growth in Cyprus, Greece, Irel<strong>and</strong>,Luxembourg <strong>and</strong> Spain. In Germany annual employmentgrowth took a turn for the better in 2004 after negativeaverage growth in the previous two years. <str<strong>on</strong>g>The</str<strong>on</strong>g> employmentsituati<strong>on</strong> for older people c<strong>on</strong>tinues to improve, withemployment rates rising markedly since 2000. This has been ageneral feature almost throughout the EU. Pensi<strong>on</strong> systemreform <strong>and</strong> stricter regulati<strong>on</strong>s <strong>on</strong> early retirement schemesare presumably having an <str<strong>on</strong>g>impact</str<strong>on</strong>g> <strong>on</strong> the labour market.In c<strong>on</strong>trast to these improvements there has been adeteriorati<strong>on</strong> in the labour market situati<strong>on</strong> for the young.As far as social inclusi<strong>on</strong> is c<strong>on</strong>cerned, 7% <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> the employedpopulati<strong>on</strong> <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> the EU25 (an estimated 14 milli<strong>on</strong> people) livein households with incomes below the nati<strong>on</strong>al poverty line.This is due to labour market problems (49) , but in-work povertyalso exists. Especially single parents <strong>and</strong> sole earners withchildren are affected by this phenomen<strong>on</strong>. On average in theEU15, at least 20% <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> such workers are exposed to poverty.Depending <strong>on</strong> the country, the youngest workers (especiallyin Luxembourg, the Netherl<strong>and</strong>s <strong>and</strong> in Finl<strong>and</strong>) or older<strong>on</strong>es (especially in Greece, Portugal, Italy <strong>and</strong> Irel<strong>and</strong>) facea relatively high risk <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> poverty. <str<strong>on</strong>g>The</str<strong>on</strong>g>re is, however, muchvariati<strong>on</strong> in the patterns <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> this phenomen<strong>on</strong>.In the medium term, forecasts <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> employment developmentanticipate at best a reducti<strong>on</strong> in unemployment but no fullemployment. Nevertheless, there will be sectors <strong>and</strong> regi<strong>on</strong>sthat will suffer from an increasing lack <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> skilled labour withinthe next few years. In Germany, for example, 2015 will marka turning point: the supply <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> skilled labour will decreasesignificantly because <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> the declining populati<strong>on</strong>. Even anincrease in the employment rate for women <strong>and</strong> older people,a migrati<strong>on</strong> rate <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> about 200,000 pers<strong>on</strong>s per year, <strong>and</strong>shorter periods <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> educati<strong>on</strong> would be unable to stopthis development. On the c<strong>on</strong>trary, these developmentswill enlarge the labour supply <strong>and</strong> may even increaseunemployment rates in some regi<strong>on</strong>s.(47) <str<strong>on</strong>g>The</str<strong>on</strong>g> main basis <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> this introducti<strong>on</strong> is the EU Employment Report. Cf. EU Commissi<strong>on</strong>, DG Employment, Social Affairs <strong>and</strong> Equal Opportunities, Employment in Europe 2005 - Recent Trends <strong>and</strong> Prospects,completed in September 2005 (http://europa.eu.int/comm/employment_social/employment_analysis/eie/eie2005_chap1_en.pdf).(48) EU-Commissi<strong>on</strong>, DG Employment, Social Affairs <strong>and</strong> Equal Opportunities, Employment in Europe 2005 - Recent Trends <strong>and</strong> Prospects, completed in September 2005, p.9 (http://europa.eu.int/comm/employment_social/employment_analysis/eie/eie2005_chap1_en.pdf).(49) European Commissi<strong>on</strong>, DG Employment <strong>and</strong> Social Affairs, Statistics in focus, Populati<strong>on</strong> <strong>and</strong> Social C<strong>on</strong>diti<strong>on</strong>s (http://europa.eu.int/comm/employment_social/social_inclusi<strong>on</strong>/docs/statistics5-2005_en.pdf).
1 Introducti<strong>on</strong> >2 Demographic Changes in Europe > 3 Demographic Change in Four Policy fields > 4 Summary <strong>and</strong> C<strong>on</strong>clusi<strong>on</strong>> 5 Further Inquiry <strong>and</strong> Research Questi<strong>on</strong>s > 6 <str<strong>on</strong>g>The</str<strong>on</strong>g> Council <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> European Municipalities <strong>and</strong> Regi<strong>on</strong>s in a nutshell<str<strong>on</strong>g>The</str<strong>on</strong>g>re is a discussi<strong>on</strong> about the correlati<strong>on</strong> between productivity<strong>and</strong> ageing. A comm<strong>on</strong> hypothesis supposes that anageing labour force is less productive because their educati<strong>on</strong>is not state-<str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g>-the-art. Another argument is the declininghealth <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> elderly people. On the other h<strong>and</strong>, in a society whereservice <strong>and</strong> knowledge play an increasing role, experience <strong>and</strong>social competence become more important which wouldfavour older employees.Migrati<strong>on</strong> plays an important role in the discussi<strong>on</strong> about thefuture development <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> populati<strong>on</strong> <strong>and</strong> employment – <strong>and</strong> isa basic element in the debate <strong>on</strong> social inclusi<strong>on</strong>. Withoutmigrati<strong>on</strong>, the populati<strong>on</strong> in Germany, for example, would fallto 62 milli<strong>on</strong> by 2050 (now 82 milli<strong>on</strong>s). If 220,000 immigrantsarrive per year, the populati<strong>on</strong> will still decrease, but <strong>on</strong>ly to 78milli<strong>on</strong> (50) . Immigrati<strong>on</strong> cannot stop populati<strong>on</strong> decline but<strong>on</strong>ly diminish it. Developments are similar with regard toskilled labour. Migrati<strong>on</strong> reduces the labour scarcity butcannot prevent it. Ageing will also c<strong>on</strong>tinue. <str<strong>on</strong>g>The</str<strong>on</strong>g> free flow <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g>labour is postp<strong>on</strong>ed for the new EU member states. From2010, migrati<strong>on</strong> is expected to intensify, <strong>and</strong> again from 2020when domestic labour markets in the new member states faceshortages (51) .Migrant skills will become even more important than today.Integrati<strong>on</strong> <strong>and</strong> social inclusi<strong>on</strong> will c<strong>on</strong>fr<strong>on</strong>t all tiers <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> publicadministrati<strong>on</strong> with new challenges, in kindergartens <strong>and</strong>schools, employment for younger people with an immigrati<strong>on</strong>background, in the “inter-cultural competence” am<strong>on</strong>g publicservants, <strong>and</strong> in geriatric care, in taking cultural differencesinto account.Activities <strong>and</strong> reacti<strong>on</strong> strategies:examples from the 4 countriesWith different focus, the following projects document therelati<strong>on</strong>ship between <str<strong>on</strong>g>demographic</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>change</str<strong>on</strong>g> <strong>and</strong> employmentor/<strong>and</strong> social inclusi<strong>on</strong>.<str<strong>on</strong>g>The</str<strong>on</strong>g> City <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Espoo (pop. 224,231, Helsinki metropolitanarea, Finl<strong>and</strong>) has initiated a “Senior Model” as an agemanagement tool. <str<strong>on</strong>g>The</str<strong>on</strong>g> municipality is <strong>on</strong>e <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> the biggestemployers in the area. <str<strong>on</strong>g>The</str<strong>on</strong>g> objective <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> the model is tomaintain the motivati<strong>on</strong> <strong>and</strong> working capacity <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> as manyageing pers<strong>on</strong>s as possible so that they will c<strong>on</strong>tinue to beproductive employees <strong>and</strong> able to work until the statutoryretirement age. This also means creating a working culturethat values the experience <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> an older workforce. <str<strong>on</strong>g>The</str<strong>on</strong>g> finalstages <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> careers should also be planned as in the early years.Mentoring plays an essential role in the Senior Model c<strong>on</strong>text.Every pers<strong>on</strong> who holds a senior post is obliged to act as amentor for another pers<strong>on</strong> working in the city organisati<strong>on</strong>.<str<strong>on</strong>g>The</str<strong>on</strong>g> mentor (an older <strong>and</strong> experienced employee) is toparticipate in normal work, but the scope <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> his work willexp<strong>and</strong>. He is to transfer the knowledge, networks <strong>and</strong> skillshe has acquired during his working history to benefit theorganisati<strong>on</strong>. He will do this by acting as a guide <strong>and</strong> trainerfor another employee. A lot <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> similar activities have beenstarted, e.g., in Germany, <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g>ten initiated by municipal ec<strong>on</strong>omicdevelopment authorities, by enterprises, <strong>and</strong> <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g>ten in acooperati<strong>on</strong> between the two.<str<strong>on</strong>g>The</str<strong>on</strong>g> activities undertaken by Bielefeld (pop. 328,452, Germany)in the field <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> the so called “silver ec<strong>on</strong>omy” are a model intwo ways. <str<strong>on</strong>g>The</str<strong>on</strong>g> project brings benefits for elderly people by<str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g>fering them a broad range <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> products <strong>and</strong> services. <str<strong>on</strong>g>The</str<strong>on</strong>g>seservices generate employment for an increasing number <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g>health-care workers <strong>and</strong> others. In North Rhine Westfaliathe health sector has been the fastest exp<strong>and</strong>ing ec<strong>on</strong>omicsector in creating employment in recent years. <str<strong>on</strong>g>The</str<strong>on</strong>g> municipalassociati<strong>on</strong> for ec<strong>on</strong>omic development has identified the“silver ec<strong>on</strong>omy” sector already several years ago asan important field <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> acti<strong>on</strong> <strong>and</strong> promotes growth <strong>and</strong>employment potentials in the field. Important sectors arebuilding <strong>and</strong> housing, health <strong>and</strong> wellness, tourism<strong>and</strong> leisure. Activities include an associati<strong>on</strong> to promoteage-adequate housing, an initiative <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> craftsmen that <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g>ferservices to c<strong>on</strong>vert apartments <strong>and</strong> houses for elderly residents<strong>and</strong> tourism <strong>and</strong> wellness services for the 50-plus generati<strong>on</strong>in the Teutoburger Wald regi<strong>on</strong>. At the moment about 25 partnersin the regi<strong>on</strong> work together to develop special tourismservices for this age group. Partners are hotels <strong>and</strong> guesthouses, wellness providers <strong>and</strong> recreati<strong>on</strong>al <strong>and</strong> touristinformati<strong>on</strong> agencies. “Silver ec<strong>on</strong>omy” is a cooperativeproject funded (from 2002 to 2004) by the North-Rhine-Westfalian Ministry <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Ec<strong>on</strong>omics within the “seniorec<strong>on</strong>omy” initiative.Spanish municipalities also <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g>fer a broad range <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> housing<strong>and</strong> care services for elderly people, generating increasingemployment. <str<strong>on</strong>g>The</str<strong>on</strong>g> municipality <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Aguaviva (pop. 700, ruralarea, lowest populati<strong>on</strong> density <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> all Spanish provinces,Regi<strong>on</strong> <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Arag<strong>on</strong>) has taken the <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g>fensive <strong>on</strong> immigrati<strong>on</strong>,integrati<strong>on</strong> <strong>and</strong> employment. <str<strong>on</strong>g>The</str<strong>on</strong>g> mayor <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Aguaviva placed anadvertisement in the internati<strong>on</strong>al press: “Spanish village islooking for immigrati<strong>on</strong> willing families”. He also founded theSpanish Associati<strong>on</strong> <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Towns Against Depopulati<strong>on</strong>, whichcurrently has 120 members. <str<strong>on</strong>g>The</str<strong>on</strong>g> target group is marriedcouples under 40 without university educati<strong>on</strong> who have workpermits <strong>and</strong> at least two children under the age <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> 12 years.<str<strong>on</strong>g>The</str<strong>on</strong>g> village <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g>fers them the means to start a new life: low-rent(50) <str<strong>on</strong>g>The</str<strong>on</strong>g>re are some variati<strong>on</strong>s in the number, depending <strong>on</strong> the institute <strong>and</strong> the prognosis taken as a basis.(51) Schulz, Erika, presentati<strong>on</strong> held at a Difu-Seminar in Berlin, 18.10.2005.1415