Chemicals and Cleaning Products Production - PMMI

overview105US Industrial Production Trend105100100Growth in the US economy is uneven and mild as post-recessions go.The general economy is growing despite the oft mentioneduncertainties (fiscal cliff, health care costs, sequestration, EU, China),and we have not changed our outlook for 2013 or 2014. At present,there are no negative signals in our repertoire of leading indicators toindicate that economic expansion will collapse over the next fewquarters. We anticipate that the US economy, as measured by GDP andUS Industrial Production, will maintain a growth trend through themiddle of 2013.That is not to say that there is not weakness evident in some sectors.Nondefense Capital Goods New Orders (excluding Aircraft), a measureof business-to-business activity, has slowed significantly over the pastsix months and is projected to end this year slightly below 2011.Businesses have been hesitant to make capital expenditures due tolooming economic uncertainties including the presidential election andthe so-called “fiscal cliff.” A rising trend will return in 2013 asreluctance due to the presidential election dissolves and 2013 tax ratesbecome a little clearer.Annual Retail Sales (excluding Automobiles) are at a record high and2.5% above the year earlier level, telling us that consumers are engagedin a favorite pastime—shopping. Although this pace is not as robust aswe would like to see, the fact that the level of spending isunprecedented sheds additional positivity on the overall economy.Light Vehicle Retail Sales rose 13.3% in the last three months compared959590908585'06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16to the same period in 2011 as consumers loosened their wallets a littleand began to make substantial investments once again. The OctoberPurchasing Managers Index (PMI) was above the key-50 benchmark,indicating the US manufacturing sector is expanding. The PMIthroughout 2011 and the first half of 2012 signaled that the USeconomy will continue to grow through early 2013.Our own ITR Leading Indicator is mildly rising, suggesting that theoverall economy will quicken in its rate of growth into mid-2013. TheUS Leading Indicator has been generally increasing since the March2009 low and is above the year-earlier level, indicating additional rise inannual US Industrial Production ahead.The second half of 2013 will not provide as many opportunities as theremainder of this year and early 2013. Tax increases, as well as federal,state, and local government budget cuts will weigh heavily on theoverall economy. Expect a mild recession to begin in late 2013 in somesectors and early 2014 for Industrial Production and extend throughoutthe year.ITR Economics 1 1st Quarter - 2013