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Challenges of Forecasting in the West - NOAA

Challenges of Forecasting in the West - NOAA

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Historically <strong>in</strong> <strong>the</strong> <strong>West</strong> <strong>the</strong>se havebeen <strong>the</strong> mesoscale structures notcaptured by synoptic-scale models• Unique to <strong>the</strong> <strong>West</strong> are many forced mesoscalecirculations.• Most local forecast adjustments are done <strong>in</strong> al<strong>in</strong>ear fashion. I.e., take <strong>the</strong> synoptic forc<strong>in</strong>g and<strong>the</strong>n add <strong>the</strong> mesoscale structure.• Models are beg<strong>in</strong>n<strong>in</strong>g to capture many <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong>larger mesoscale features – both good and bad.

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