Challenges of Forecasting in the West - NOAA

Overview of human-based forecastingI. Forecasters require an analysis of the current situationand the forming of an hypothesis about how the currentweather came to be. This is an absolute necessity.II.Forecasters also require a set of physical models withwhich to build their hypothesis. These arephenomenological conceptual models, which are:a. concepts of atmospheric processes, and how they aremanifest in the operational data stream, andb. physical models formed through a mixture of theory,experience, and climatology.GOAL: Maximize human capacity for perception ofprocesses, and minimize incorrect judgment.