Challenges of Forecasting in the West - NOAA
Challenges of Forecasting in the West - NOAA
Challenges of Forecasting in the West - NOAA
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<strong>Forecast<strong>in</strong>g</strong> <strong>in</strong> <strong>the</strong> <strong>West</strong> is:• Focus<strong>in</strong>g on scale <strong>in</strong>teractions and processes• Deal<strong>in</strong>g with free and forced mesoscale circulations that<strong>in</strong>fluence:– Precipitation distribution and type– Temperature extremes– W<strong>in</strong>d direction and speed– Cloud characteristics• NOT l<strong>in</strong>ear and requires conceptual models that arephysics based• Requires a cont<strong>in</strong>ual re-evaluation <strong>of</strong> tools and modelsas improvements <strong>in</strong> NWP gradually resolve <strong>the</strong>important mesoscale structure• And, this must all be done <strong>in</strong> an environment with<strong>in</strong>ferior upstream <strong>in</strong>itial conditions.
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