Challenges of Forecasting in the West - NOAA

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Categorize mesoscale circulationsinto two types:1. Free (internal) circulations/disturbances:• Occur as a result of an instability inherent within the fluid (someprecip bands, MCCs, jetstreaks, polar lows, squall lines,hurricanes)• To predict, look at “background” flow to determine what instabilitiesmay be present2. Forced circulations/disturbances:• Owe their existence, at least in part, to an external boundary of thesystem• External forcing controls location and influences the scale of thesystem• To predict, need to be familiar with local physiographic featuresand complicated mesoscale dynamics
1. Free (internal) circulations/disturbances:• Precipitation bands (CSI, etc.)• Convective complexes• Polar lows• Squall lines• Gravity waves2. Forced circulations/disturbances:• Blocked flow events• Lake-effect snowstorms• Terrain-modulated wind and convergence bands• Gravity waves No consistent approximation to the full primitive equations covers allmesoscale phenomena (as quasigeostrophy does for synoptic-scalemotions)
Page 1 and 2: Challenges of Forecastingin the Wes
Page 4 and 5: Overview of human-based forecasting
Page 7 and 8: Historically in the West these have
Page 12 and 13: Simple Geostrophic Flow103410301026
Page 14: Objective techniques:a. Numerical m
Page 24: Empirical techniques:• Typically
Page 34: Forecasting in the West is:• Focu

Challenges of Forecasting in the West - NOAA

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