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DOI: 10.3310/hta16060Health Technology Assessment 2012; Vol. 16: No. 631other clinical data <strong>for</strong> that visit. An AE was defined as any other ocular or systemic AE reportedat the next visit after a treatment or retreatment visit. The association of an AE with the previoustreatment visit was coded during data man<strong>age</strong>ment and, there<strong>for</strong>e, was associated with thecorresponding treatment visit, not the visit on which it was reported.The probability of a treatment visit giving rise to an AR or AE by site and visit was estimatedusing a logistic regression model, fitting participating site as a random effect. The distributionsof centre-specific probabilities were examined carefully because of concern about the extentto which sites had adhered to the instructions <strong>for</strong> collecting data about ARs and AEs. Tocontextualise the overall probability of an AR or AE, we also described the probabilities <strong>for</strong> asite which had the largest number of treated patients and which we believed had collected suchdata better than aver<strong>age</strong>. We also investigated whether any site had a site-specific upper 95%confidence limit below the lower 95% confidence limit <strong>for</strong> the entire cohort; where this was thecase, a sensitivity analysis was rerun omitting the site.E: How effective and cost-effective is verteporfin <strong>photodynamic</strong> <strong>therapy</strong>?Different approaches to estimate effectiveness were proposed in the manual of operations (seeChapter 3, Estimating the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of verteporfin <strong>photodynamic</strong> <strong>therapy</strong>).For reasons outside our control, we were able to use only the second of these methods, that is toinvestigate associations between the use of resources and visual function and other outcomes inthe study. This method is described in more detail in How effective is verteporfin <strong>photodynamic</strong><strong>therapy</strong>?, below. This method also underpinned the second element of objective E, that isestimation of the cost-effectiveness of VPDT.The first method depended on obtaining individual patient data from other researchers,including the TAP triallists. We were able to obtain some data <strong>for</strong> studies which had academicor public sponsors, but were unable to obtain the data <strong>for</strong> the key RCTs of VPDT (TAP and VIPtrials 3,5 ), even though the manufacturer of verteporfin (Novartis) was represented on the SteeringCommittee. Without these data, we judged that the first method was not feasible.The third method depended on being able to characterise an untreated control group in thecohort of patients recruited <strong>for</strong> the study. However, it quickly became apparent that we werenot capturing adequate data <strong>for</strong> patients who were not treated (either by choice or because ofineligibility) and that untreated patients represented in the database were not similar across sitesbecause of the varied arrangements in place <strong>for</strong> triaging patients be<strong>for</strong>e referral to VPDT clinics.How effective is verteporfin <strong>photodynamic</strong> <strong>therapy</strong>?The estimates of BCVA outcome at 1 year were used to derive indirect estimates of theeffectiveness of VPDT by comparing the estimates with the reported BCVA outcomes at 1 year inthe treatment and sham treatment groups of the TAP trials.The strategy <strong>for</strong> estimating the HRQoL benefit from VPDT was as follows:1. to estimate the extent to which HRQoL changes per unit change in BCVA2. to ‘translate’ the observed difference in BCVA in the TAP trials into HRQoL, based on theassociation quantified by step 13. to ‘translate’ the observed change in BCVA in the VPDT cohort study over time minus thechange in BCVA observed in the sham treatment arms of the TAP trials into HRQoL, basedon the association quantified by step 1.© Queen’s Printer and Controller of HMSO 2012. This work was produced by Reeves et al. under the terms of a commissioning contract issued by theSecretary of State <strong>for</strong> Health.

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