Climate Change and Tourism - UNEP - Division of Technology ...

UNWTO, 9 July 2008
Impacts and Adaptation at Tourism Destinations
The losses experienced in Honduras and Nicaragua from Hurricane Mitch in 1999 totalled more than
the combined GDP of both countries and over 7000 people died in Honduras. 352 Similarly, the major
cyclone that hit Bangladesh in 1991 resulted in a storm surge of 7 metres and winds of 235 miles/hour;
over 138,000 people were killed and 840,000 homes destroyed, with over 12 million people impacted
by the cyclone. 353
The economic impact of strong storm events on tourism is substantial. The ten-day closure and cleanup
following Hurricane Georges in 1998 resulted in tourism revenue losses of approximately US$ 32
million in the Florida Keys. 354 The economic impact of the four hurricanes that struck Florida in 2004
was estimated to be several times larger. However, this revenue was not lost to the industry as whole,
as other US destinations such as Arizona and California benefited from the transfer of large numbers of
visitors not going to Florida. 355 With 26 tropical storms and 14 hurricanes, the 2005 hurricane season
was one of the most active and destructive in history, spawning three of the most intense North Atlantic
storms on record, including Hurricane Katrina with its associated environmental, social and economic
impacts. Hurricane Katrina caused extensive damage to the tourism infrastructure in New Orleans and
Coastal Mississippi, with major losses in tourism, convention business and gambling expected for some
time after the event. 356
Sea level rise
Sea level rise is of major importance to tourism given that most tourism activities take place in coastal
zones. Further global sea level rises could range from 31 to 65 cm by 2100, aggravating coastal erosion
and leading to the loss of beaches. 357 This is primarily a consequence of the expansion of sea water
(70–75%), as a result of the increase in oceanic temperatures, and of the continued melting of mountain
glaciers and small ice caps. 358 In a few countries the sea level has fallen due to tectonic uplift; however,
overall, sea level is projected to rise, at an escalating rate. Even small rises in sea level will result
in significant erosion and submersion of land, increased flood hazard, contamination of freshwater
aquifers, loss of protective coral reefs, mangrove areas and sand beaches which will increase exposure
to hurricanes and storm surges in coastal zones. In small island regions especially, much of the biological
diversity and most of the population, agricultural land and capital assets are located in these areas and
so at risk. 359 This has major implications for tourism which needs to be assessed. In the Indian Ocean,
the Maldives average only 1.5 meters above sea level and projected rates of sea level rise are likely
to inundate large areas of the different islands and atolls. Of the archipelago’s 1,192 islands and coral
atolls, 194 are inhabited, and the beaches on 60% of those are already facing varying degrees of erosion
and encroachment. Other low lying islands, such as the Bahamas and Kiribati, face similar problems.
360 One-quarter of the Indian population live along the coastline and are to a great extent dependent on
coastal livelihoods. Sea level rises ill have major impacts in these areas especially in the Bay of Bengal
area which also experiences seasonal monsoon and cyclonic patterns. 361
In Europe, the EUROSION study 362 into the management of coastal erosion throughout the EU reported
that 20% of the European shoreline is retreating and/or is being artificially stabilised. Its findings
indicated that for Europe, the value of economic assets located within 500 metres of EU coastline, and
at risk from sea level rises (including those related to infrastructure, industry, agriculture and tourism),
is € 500 to € 1,000 Billion.
Ocean circulations
Sophisticated computer-based global climate models are now used to estimate global winds and
ocean currents. Ocean currents have a large influence on local climatic conditions. Changes in rainfall
variability and tropical cyclone characteristics in the South Pacific, for example, are strongly dependent
on El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO). El Niño manifests in a decrease in precipitation for areas
in the Western Pacific (e.g., Australia). As the El Niño develops, the extent of its influence on global
weather increases, resulting in anomalous weather and climate conditions worldwide. This includes
a decrease in tropical storm activity in the Atlantic Ocean, droughts in the Caribbean and Central
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