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Extreme events UNWTO, 9 July 2008 Impacts and Adaptation at Tourism Destinations There is high confidence that the most immediate and more significant consequences of climate change are likely to be changes in the nature of extreme events (e.g., flooding, tropical cyclones, storm surges, heat waves) and climatic variability (e.g., droughts, and prevailing winds accelerating coastal erosion, see Figure 9.4). 329, 330, 331, 332 Coastal areas are particularly vulnerable to extreme wind events. Windstorm disasters account for about one-third of all natural disasters throughout the world (by number, fatalities and economic losses), whilst accounting for more than two-thirds of the corresponding insured losses and major wind-storm disasters and the losses generated by them have increased drastically in recent decades. 333 An increase in the frequency of extreme cyclones has occurred in the last decade and is projected to continue, bringing more extreme wind events. 334 Figure 9.4 Erosion of shoreline and damage to tourism infrastructure due to hurricane Ivan in Tobago Photo credit: Simpson, M. C. The causal relationship between climate change and the observed increase in extreme events is still under debate. Some scientists highlight the role of Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation patterns, as opposed to global warming activities, in the recorded 20–30 year storm cycles, the latest of which commenced in 1995. The heavy hurricane toll of 2004 and 2005 in the Gulf of Mexico is seen as indicative of the development of this cycle, preceded by the last active cycle during 1940–1960. 335, 336 However, there is much compelling evidence that the current levels of tropical cyclone activity are largely a response to climate change from anthropogenic causes. 337, 338, 339 In the North Atlantic regions, the observed 20–30 year variations in tropical cyclone and hurricane frequency over the past century have been characterised by a 50% increase in cyclone activity with each subsequent multidecadal cycle through the last 100 years. These increases are closely correlated with increasing sea surface temperatures (SSTs): “[…] a substantial 100-year trend leading to related increases of over 0.7° C in SST and over 100% in tropical cyclone and hurricane numbers.” 340 Anthropogenically-produced greenhouse gases have contributed to a general trend, whereby raised SSTs, and increased tropical cyclone and hurricane numbers are “[…] substantially influenced by greenhouse warming.” 341 Variations in cyclones, hurricanes and typhoons in many small-island tropical and sub-tropical regions are dominated by El Nino events and characterised by decadal variability. In addition, increases in the distribution of tropical storm increases in one area are mirrored by decreases in other areas. 342 Although the number of cyclones and cyclone days has decreased in most areas during the past decade, there has been a large increase in the number and proportion of extreme hurricanes (categories 4 and 5). 343 These increases in hurricane intensity coincide with an increase in sea surface temperatures. Sea temperature warming has ranged from 0 to 0.5° C per decade between 1971 and 2004, for the Caribbean, Indian Ocean and Mediterranean regions. 344 Evidence appears to indicate the correlation between higher sea temperatures and increasing hurricane intensity, and there appears to be a general trend towards more frequent intense hurricanes. 345 73
74 Climate Change and Tourism – Responding to Global Challenges Box 5 Extreme storm events in the Caribbean Caribbean small islands states (SIS) are extremely vulnerable to hurricanes. Future warming is likely to lead to greater hurricane force intensity and destructive potential, and subsequently increased hurricane-related losses across coastal regions. 346 There has been a marked increase in activity since 1994 with a very high level of hurricane activity in the 2004–2005 seasons. This has been attributed to increased sea surface temperature (SST) coupled with anomalies in wind patterns, particularly in 2005 with the highest SST recorded since 1870 across the western tropical Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico, 347 leading to record tropical storm activity, with 15 named storms making landfall in the Atlantic basin. 348 Figure 9.5 North Atlantic hurricanes have increased with sea surface temperature Source: Pachauri and Jallow (2007) 349 Seasonal records for the number of tropical storms (42) and hurricanes (24) in the Mexican Gulf were established by the combination of the 2004 and 2005 hurricane seasons. During the hurricane season in 2004 and 2005 anomalies in sea surface temperature existed in the main hurricane development region along with anomalies in sea level pressure and in the trade-winds. Figure 9.6 Selection of major gulf hurricanes in 2004-2005 Source: Saunders and Lea (2006) 350, 351 UNWTO, 9 July 2008 (1944-2005) SST
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