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UNWTO, 9 July 2008 Impacts and Adaptation at Tourism Destinations Beginner ski runs are typically found at lower elevations, where the general finding is that the impact of climatic change would be more pronounced. Most people learn to ski on these lower-lying beginner slopes and the implications of fewer such slopes for discouraging beginning skiers or possibly diminishing the industry’s client base over time remains uncertain. There are divergent views on how best to manage this risk. Some regard market-based contraction of the sector as healthy, while others contend there is essential to retain these ‘nursery ski areas’ through subsidies, for regional economic reasons and the future of the ski industry. 302, 303, 304, 305 With the possible exception of the Australian and Scottish ski industries, which appear to be entirely at risk to moderate or high warming scenarios over the next 50 years, the probable consequence of climate change will be a contraction in the number of ski operators in most regional markets. Although climate change would contribute to the demise of many ski businesses, it could advantage some of the ski operations that remain. If skier demand remained relatively stable, as it has in some climate change analogue years (see Box 2), remaining ski businesses would be in a position to gain market share through diminished competition. The socio-economic implications of a climate change induced contraction of the ski tourism marketplace for communities have yet to be examined, but it is clear that both communities that are at risk of losing ski operators and those where ski operations are likely to persist will need to adapt to climate change, though for very different reasons. The former will need to adjust to reduced winter tourism spending, lost employment, and potentially declining real estate prices, while the latter will need to plan for increased visitation, congestion, and perhaps greater development pressures. 306, 307 What is clear is that adaptation to maintain skiing as a central cultural and economic component of many alpine communities in an era of climate change will require significant economic investment and careful environmental planning. The adaptation options available to ski operators and communities are further discussed below. Changing Alpine Landscapes Nature-based tourism is also a vital component of tourism in mountain regions of the world. Climate change is projected to have substantial impacts on sensitive mountain environments, with implications for the attractiveness of mountain environments for tourism and the occurrence of natural hazards. A survey of Mountain Biosphere Reserve (MBR) managers in 2004 about the impacts of climate change found that the impacts on tourism and recreation were the most frequent concern, identified by 80% of MBRs around the world. 308 Although the central question was deceptively clear – how will climate change affect this economically critical sector – answers from MBR managers remain elusive. Climate-induced environmental change has been documented in several mountain ranges of the world that are key tourism destinations (the European Alps, Rockies, Andes, and Himalayas). Glaciers provide some of the most dramatic scenery that attract tourists to mountain destinations (e.g., visitors per year: Franz Josef Glacier, New Zealand 250,000 309 ; Columbia Ice Fields, Banff National Park, Canada 600,000 310 ; Los Glaciares National Park, Argentina 167,000 311 ). An estimated 7,000 km 2 have been lost from mountain glaciers in the last 40 years. 312 Glacier extent has decreased by 30–40% in the European Alps during the 20th century 313 and a similar decrease of 25% has been recorded in the Canadian Rockies over the same period. 314 Glacier National Park in the USA has lost 115 of its 150 glaciers over the past century and scientists estimate that the remaining 35 glaciers will disappear over the next 30 years. 315 In addition to aesthetic impacts for tourism, shrinking of glaciers modify the water-storage capacities of mountains, thus affecting downstream ecosystems and water supply in some destinations. 71
72 Climate Change and Tourism – Responding to Global Challenges Figure 9.3 Retreat of Muir and Riggs glaciers in Glacier Bay National Park and Preserve (Alaska, USA) UNWTO, 9 July 2008 Photo credit: Global Warming Art 316 Climate change also has serious implications for the biodiversity of mountain ecosystems. Many alpine species have limited capacity to move to higher altitudes in response to warming temperatures and displacement by lowland species. This is especially true of isolated populations on ‘mountain islands’, where, with nowhere to go, the danger of localized extinctions is considerable. The loss of colourful mountain meadows and upslope migration of the tree line have been observed in mountain ranges of North America 317 and in the European Alps, and some plants previously found only on mountaintops have disappeared. 318 Certain natural processes which pose hazards to people and development in mountain regions have accelerated as a result of recent warming and deglaciation, including glacier avalanches, landslides and slope instability caused by glacier debuttressing and permafrost melting, and outburst floods from moraine- and glacier-dammed lakes. 319 Changes in natural hazards in mountain destinations pose an increased risk to tourists and tourism infrastructure. The unprecedented melting of the Belvedere Glacier during the summer of 2002, for example, created a new glacial lake that Italian government engineers feared threatened to destroy the alpine resort near the town of Macugnaga. 320 In contrast, the warmer climate conditions that are projected to drastically reshape alpine landscapes will also provide opportunities for mountain destinations to extend the warm-weather tourism season (including activities like hiking and mountain biking) 321, 322 and provide comfortable climatic conditions as a retreat from the heat in urban centres and valleys. 323, 324 The implications of climate change for altered seasonal tourist demand and tourist perceptions of projected changes in the physical landscape in mountain regions are further discussed in Chapter 10. 9.1.3 Impacts on Islands and Coastal Zones Islands and coastal zones are among the most vulnerable tourist destinations to climate change. The main observed and projected climatic changes in island destinations are an increased intensity and frequency of extreme events, sea level rise, changes in ocean circulation, and changes in natural ecosystems. 325, 326, 327, 328
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