Climate Change and Tourism - UNEP - Division of Technology ...

UNWTO, 9 July 2008
Impacts and Adaptation at Tourism Destinations
Beginner ski runs are typically found at lower elevations, where the general finding is that the impact
of climatic change would be more pronounced. Most people learn to ski on these lower-lying beginner
slopes and the implications of fewer such slopes for discouraging beginning skiers or possibly diminishing
the industry’s client base over time remains uncertain. There are divergent views on how best to manage
this risk. Some regard market-based contraction of the sector as healthy, while others contend there is
essential to retain these ‘nursery ski areas’ through subsidies, for regional economic reasons and the
future of the ski industry. 302, 303, 304, 305
With the possible exception of the Australian and Scottish ski industries, which appear to be entirely
at risk to moderate or high warming scenarios over the next 50 years, the probable consequence of
climate change will be a contraction in the number of ski operators in most regional markets. Although
climate change would contribute to the demise of many ski businesses, it could advantage some of
the ski operations that remain. If skier demand remained relatively stable, as it has in some climate
change analogue years (see Box 2), remaining ski businesses would be in a position to gain market
share through diminished competition. The socio-economic implications of a climate change induced
contraction of the ski tourism marketplace for communities have yet to be examined, but it is clear that
both communities that are at risk of losing ski operators and those where ski operations are likely to
persist will need to adapt to climate change, though for very different reasons. The former will need to
adjust to reduced winter tourism spending, lost employment, and potentially declining real estate prices,
while the latter will need to plan for increased visitation, congestion, and perhaps greater development
pressures. 306, 307 What is clear is that adaptation to maintain skiing as a central cultural and economic
component of many alpine communities in an era of climate change will require significant economic
investment and careful environmental planning. The adaptation options available to ski operators and
communities are further discussed below.
Changing Alpine Landscapes
Nature-based tourism is also a vital component of tourism in mountain regions of the world. Climate
change is projected to have substantial impacts on sensitive mountain environments, with implications
for the attractiveness of mountain environments for tourism and the occurrence of natural hazards. A
survey of Mountain Biosphere Reserve (MBR) managers in 2004 about the impacts of climate change
found that the impacts on tourism and recreation were the most frequent concern, identified by 80%
of MBRs around the world. 308 Although the central question was deceptively clear – how will climate
change affect this economically critical sector – answers from MBR managers remain elusive.
Climate-induced environmental change has been documented in several mountain ranges of the world
that are key tourism destinations (the European Alps, Rockies, Andes, and Himalayas). Glaciers provide
some of the most dramatic scenery that attract tourists to mountain destinations (e.g., visitors per year:
Franz Josef Glacier, New Zealand 250,000 309 ; Columbia Ice Fields, Banff National Park, Canada 600,000
310 ; Los Glaciares National Park, Argentina 167,000 311 ). An estimated 7,000 km 2 have been lost from
mountain glaciers in the last 40 years. 312 Glacier extent has decreased by 30–40% in the European Alps
during the 20th century 313 and a similar decrease of 25% has been recorded in the Canadian Rockies
over the same period. 314 Glacier National Park in the USA has lost 115 of its 150 glaciers over the past
century and scientists estimate that the remaining 35 glaciers will disappear over the next 30 years. 315
In addition to aesthetic impacts for tourism, shrinking of glaciers modify the water-storage capacities of
mountains, thus affecting downstream ecosystems and water supply in some destinations.
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