Climate Change and Tourism - UNEP - Division of Technology ...

70 Climate Change and Tourism – Responding to Global Challenges
However, high emission scenarios had a much greater impact, with eight locations projected to lose
25% or more of their ski season by mid-century and half losing 45% or more of their ski season by the
end of the 21st century. 292
In order to limit ski season losses to the levels described above, mid century snow-making requirements
were projected to increase by 62–151% in Ontario, 18–150% in Québec, and 3–86% in New England.
At the end of the century, several locations required more than double the machine-made snow of
today, while in other locations warm temperatures made snow-making unfeasible during parts of the
winter months.
Another major snow-based winter sport in North America is snowmobiling, which in some regions
(Midwest, Plains-Prairies, New England, Ontario and Quebec) exceeds skiing in terms of number
of participants and economic impact. According to the International Snowmobile Manufacturers
Association the annual economic impact of snowmobiling is US$ 25 billion in the US and Canada. 293
The snowmobiling industry in North America is much more vulnerable to climate change than is the
ski industry, because it is completely reliant on natural snowfall. Under high emission climate change
scenarios a reliable snowmobile season disappears from most regions of eastern North America (New
England, southern Ontario and Quebec, and the Midwest states) with developed trail networks by midcentury
and earlier in some areas. 294, 295
Western North America
Although the Rocky and Sierra Nevada Mountains are home to some of North America’s most widely
known winter tourism destinations, the implications for major ski areas in the region have not yet been
comprehensively examined. Considering only changes in natural snow conditions, the ski season in the
Sierra Nevada Mountains of California was projected to decrease 3–6 weeks by mid-century and 7–15
weeks by the end of this century. 296 Taking snow-making into account, ski seasons at high elevation ski
areas near Aspen Colorado were projected to decrease by 10 days in the next two decades and become
28–70 days shorter by 2100. 297
A recent media release proclaimed that the ‘Ski Industry in Rockies May Be Shut Down by 2050’. 298
However, this analysis did not examine the impact of climate change on any key performance indicator
of the ski industry, such as operational ski days (season length), capacity to operate during economically
key holiday periods, snow-making requirements and costs, or skier visits. Consequently, such a
conclusion is unfounded and highlights the need for sound science on this issue so that misinformation
that could be damaging to the ski industry is not propagated to investors and skiers.
Australia
Under a warming scenario of +3° C and precipitation decline of 20%, none of Australia’s ski areas were
projected to have enough natural snow cover to remain financially viable. 299 However, with sufficient
investment in snow-making systems and necessary water supply, it was estimated that all of the ski areas
would be able to cope with the impact of projected climate change over the next 25 years but not likely
through to mid-century. 300
The preceding summary of impacts focused on average changes to ski seasons and not extreme seasons.
Inter-annual variability is very likely to be more pronounced under climate change, creating increasingly
challenging business conditions. It may not matter to ski area operators if every ski season by midcentury
is a couple of weeks shorter, as much of the season loss will occur at the beginning and end of
the season when skier visits are relatively low. 301 Conversely, two or three consecutive extremely warm
winters, could cause substantive economic losses and if frequent enough perhaps adversely affecting
skier perceptions and demand in the longer term.
UNWTO, 9 July 2008